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The Esoteric
Report
	
  

	
  	
  	
  
	
  
Published	
  by,	
  Nariman	
  Point,	
  LLC	
  
Monday	
  October	
  14th,	
  2013	
  

Nariman	
  Point,	
  LLC	
  

1	
  
Global	
  Briefing	
  
•  SCll	
  no	
  resoluCon	
  on	
  the	
  U.S.	
  Government	
  shutdown	
  and	
  debt	
  ceiling	
  
debates,	
  but	
  a	
  plan	
  should	
  pass	
  within	
  the	
  next	
  48	
  hours.	
  	
  
–  PrioriCzaCon	
  of	
  payments	
  is	
  technically	
  a	
  default	
  but	
  a	
  8	
  week	
  debt	
  ceiling	
  
raise	
  is	
  the	
  most	
  likely	
  outcome.	
  “Nudging	
  the	
  can	
  down	
  the	
  road”	
  in	
  the	
  
worlds	
  of	
  a	
  TV	
  commentator.	
  ExpecCng	
  markets	
  to	
  rally	
  strongly	
  on	
  a	
  deal;	
  
however,	
  it	
  could	
  fade	
  	
  just	
  	
  as	
  quickly	
  a	
  la	
  the	
  “no	
  taper”	
  announcement	
  rally	
  
last	
  month.	
  

•  China	
  makes	
  another	
  round	
  of	
  comments	
  on	
  the	
  US’s	
  posiCon	
  as	
  global	
  
reserve	
  currency.	
  	
  
–  Chinese	
  inflaCon	
  rose	
  3.1%	
  YoY,	
  exports	
  fell	
  .3%	
  YoY.	
  	
  

•  German	
  officials	
  cite	
  US	
  as	
  posing	
  a	
  larger	
  risk	
  to	
  Global	
  Markets	
  than	
  EU	
  
or	
  Emerging	
  Markets.	
  	
  
–  Angela	
  Merkel	
  sCll	
  has	
  not	
  obtained	
  her	
  coaliCon	
  government.	
  	
  
–  Talks	
  of	
  EU	
  banking	
  Union	
  conCnue	
  laterally	
  with	
  no	
  REAL	
  progress.	
  
	
  
Nariman	
  Point,	
  LLC	
  
	
  

2	
  
Global	
  Briefing	
  
•  ECB	
  begins	
  discussions	
  on	
  European	
  bank	
  recapitalizaCon.	
  	
  
–  Bank	
  stress	
  tests	
  next	
  year	
  may	
  reveal	
  substanCal	
  losses	
  presently	
  kept	
  out	
  of	
  
view	
  from	
  the	
  invesCng	
  public.	
  	
  
–  The	
  IMF	
  states:	
  “Nobody	
  knows	
  the	
  true	
  scale	
  of	
  poten6al	
  losses	
  at	
  Europe's	
  
banks,	
  but	
  the	
  Interna6onal	
  Monetary	
  Fund	
  hinted	
  at	
  the	
  enormity	
  of	
  the	
  
problem	
  this	
  month,	
  saying	
  that	
  Spanish	
  and	
  Italian	
  banks	
  face	
  230	
  billion	
  
euros	
  ($310	
  billion)	
  of	
  losses	
  alone	
  on	
  credit	
  to	
  companies	
  in	
  the	
  next	
  two	
  
years.”	
  
–  Depositors,	
  share	
  holders	
  and	
  bond	
  holders	
  will	
  be	
  expected	
  to	
  bare	
  the	
  first	
  
losses	
  if	
  Germany	
  and	
  Finland	
  get	
  their	
  way,	
  while	
  Spain	
  and	
  Italy	
  will	
  push	
  for	
  
access	
  to	
  ECB	
  bailout	
  funds.	
  The	
  quesCon	
  becomes	
  how	
  will	
  the	
  losses	
  be	
  
broken	
  down	
  and	
  how	
  long	
  will	
  it	
  take	
  to	
  agree	
  on	
  such	
  a	
  plan?	
  	
  

•  German	
  courts	
  will	
  determine	
  the	
  legality	
  of	
  the	
  Outright	
  Monetary	
  
TransacCons	
  (OMT)	
  later	
  this	
  month.	
  	
  
–  This	
  policy	
  tool	
  allows	
  the	
  ECB	
  to	
  suppress	
  borrowing	
  costs	
  for	
  European	
  
naCons.	
  	
  
Nariman	
  Point,	
  LLC	
  

3	
  
Global	
  Briefing	
  
–  The	
  most	
  likely	
  outcome	
  is	
  that	
  German	
  courts	
  rule	
  that	
  OMT	
  is	
  condiConally	
  
legal.	
  CondiConal	
  on	
  what?	
  We	
  will	
  find	
  out.	
  Since	
  OMT	
  was	
  announced	
  
European	
  volaClity	
  receded	
  significantly.	
  	
  
10Y	
  BTP	
  Yield	
  since	
  OMT	
  Announcement	
  
7.5	
  
7	
  
6.5	
  
6	
  
5.5	
  
5	
  
4.5	
  
4	
  

Nariman	
  Point,	
  LLC	
  

10/2/13	
  

9/2/13	
  

8/2/13	
  

7/2/13	
  

6/2/13	
  

5/2/13	
  

4/2/13	
  

3/2/13	
  

2/2/13	
  

1/2/13	
  

12/2/12	
  

11/2/12	
  

10/2/12	
  

9/2/12	
  

8/2/12	
  

7/2/12	
  

6/2/12	
  

5/2/12	
  

4/2/12	
  

3/2/12	
  

2/2/12	
  

3	
  

1/2/12	
  

3.5	
  

4	
  
The	
  Euro	
  is	
  on	
  Fire:	
  Why?	
  
•  The	
  Euro	
  has	
  been	
  on	
  a	
  tear	
  over	
  the	
  past	
  8	
  months	
  due	
  to	
  an	
  increasing	
  
current	
  account	
  (CA)	
  surplus	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  USD	
  weakness.	
  	
  
–  European	
  officials	
  are	
  poinCng	
  to	
  the	
  Euro’s	
  8-­‐month	
  high	
  as	
  proof	
  of	
  a	
  
European	
  recovery	
  but	
  this	
  may	
  not	
  be	
  the	
  case.	
  	
  
–  The	
  largest	
  contributor	
  to	
  the	
  Euro’s	
  strength	
  has	
  been	
  Germany’s	
  
contribuCon	
  to	
  the	
  current	
  account	
  surplus.	
  

•  Germany	
  makes	
  up	
  approx.	
  67%	
  of	
  the	
  total	
  Eurozone’s	
  CA	
  surplus.	
  	
  
–  Total	
  EU	
  CA	
  =	
  363B	
  USD;	
  Germany	
  CA	
  =241B	
  USD	
  
–  In	
  2012,	
  Germany	
  =	
  104%	
  of	
  EU’s	
  CA	
  surplus.	
  	
  

•  Germany’s	
  largest	
  trading	
  partner	
  is	
  the	
  rest	
  of	
  Europe;	
  CA	
  surplus	
  implies	
  
Germany	
  not	
  purchasing	
  goods	
  and	
  services	
  from	
  the	
  periphery.	
  
–  Italy,	
  Spain,	
  Portugal	
  and	
  Greece	
  will	
  not	
  be	
  able	
  to	
  address	
  their	
  employment	
  
issues	
  unless	
  Germany	
  increases	
  consumpCon	
  of	
  goods	
  produced	
  in	
  the	
  
periphery.	
  The	
  data	
  suggests	
  that	
  this	
  is	
  not	
  happening.	
  	
  

	
  
Nariman	
  Point,	
  LLC	
  

5	
  
0	
  

-­‐5	
  

-­‐10	
  

Nariman	
  Point,	
  LLC	
  

4/1/2013	
  

12/1/2012	
  

8/1/2012	
  

4/1/2012	
  

12/1/2011	
  

8/1/2011	
  

4/1/2011	
  

12/1/2010	
  

8/1/2010	
  

4/1/2010	
  

12/1/2009	
  

8/1/2009	
  

4/1/2009	
  

12/1/2008	
  

8/1/2008	
  

4/1/2008	
  

12/1/2007	
  

8/1/2007	
  

4/1/2007	
  

12/1/2006	
  

8/1/2006	
  

4/1/2006	
  

12/1/2005	
  

8/1/2005	
  

4/1/2005	
  

12/1/2004	
  

8/1/2004	
  

4/1/2004	
  

12/1/2003	
  

EU	
  Current	
  Accounts	
  
Current	
  Account	
  %	
  of	
  GDP	
  
2003-­‐2013	
  

10	
  

5	
  
Portugal	
  

Spain	
  

Greece	
  

Italy	
  

Ireland	
  

Germany	
  

EU	
  

-­‐15	
  

-­‐20	
  

Source:	
  Nariman	
  Point,	
  LLC	
  
6	
  
Emerging	
  Markets:	
  Taper	
  
•  Taper	
  in	
  2013	
  does	
  not	
  seem	
  likely	
  given	
  the	
  Government	
  shutdown	
  and	
  
debt	
  ceiling	
  debates,	
  especially	
  given	
  a	
  new	
  debt	
  ceiling	
  deadline	
  of	
  Jan	
  7.	
  	
  
–  This	
  would	
  be	
  posiCve	
  for	
  currencies	
  and	
  equiCes	
  of	
  countries	
  with	
  large	
  
current	
  account	
  deficits	
  who	
  need	
  to	
  borrow	
  money	
  to	
  plug	
  their	
  spending	
  
gap.	
  No	
  taper	
  means	
  financing	
  costs	
  will	
  remain	
  low…for	
  now.	
  	
  

US10Y	
  Yield	
  
20	
  
15	
  
10	
  

12/1/12	
  

2/1/11	
  

4/1/09	
  

6/1/07	
  

8/1/05	
  

10/1/03	
  

2/1/00	
  

4/1/98	
  

6/1/96	
  

12/1/01	
  

Nariman	
  Point,	
  LLC	
  

8/1/94	
  

10/1/92	
  

12/1/90	
  

2/1/89	
  

4/1/87	
  

6/1/85	
  

8/1/83	
  

10/1/81	
  

2/1/78	
  

12/1/79	
  

4/1/76	
  

6/1/74	
  

8/1/72	
  

12/1/68	
  

10/1/70	
  

0	
  

2/1/67	
  

5	
  
4/1/65	
  

• 

If	
  the	
  US	
  10	
  Year	
  conCnues	
  to	
  rally	
  past	
  2.7%,	
  this	
  could	
  be	
  bullish	
  for	
  the	
  Indian	
  Rupee	
  and	
  other	
  large	
  CA	
  
deficit	
  countries	
  like	
  Turkey.	
  While	
  these	
  are	
  not	
  necessarily	
  reasons	
  to	
  invest	
  in	
  a	
  country	
  for	
  the	
  long	
  haul,	
  
this	
  is	
  certainly	
  a	
  logical	
  way	
  to	
  play	
  lower	
  U.S.	
  rates	
  with	
  greater	
  upside	
  than	
  simply	
  buying	
  bonds	
  outright.	
  
TUR	
  (Turkish	
  ETF)	
  has	
  outperformed	
  the	
  TLT	
  (20	
  year	
  US	
  Bond	
  ETF)	
  since	
  the	
  “no	
  taper”	
  announcement.	
  
Genng	
  long	
  US	
  10Y+	
  bonds	
  has	
  generated	
  approximately	
  3%	
  returns	
  post	
  the	
  Fed	
  announcement,	
  where	
  as	
  
TUR	
  is	
  up	
  over	
  20%.	
  	
  

6/1/63	
  

• 

7	
  
0	
  

-­‐2	
  

-­‐4	
  

-­‐6	
  

Nariman	
  Point,	
  LLC	
  

3/1/2013	
  

11/1/2012	
  

7/1/2012	
  

3/1/2012	
  

11/1/2011	
  

7/1/2011	
  

3/1/2011	
  

11/1/2010	
  

7/1/2010	
  

3/1/2010	
  

11/1/2009	
  

7/1/2009	
  

3/1/2009	
  

11/1/2008	
  

7/1/2008	
  

3/1/2008	
  

11/1/2007	
  

7/1/2007	
  

3/1/2007	
  

11/1/2006	
  

7/1/2006	
  

3/1/2006	
  

11/1/2005	
  

7/1/2005	
  

3/1/2005	
  

11/1/2004	
  

7/1/2004	
  

3/1/2004	
  

11/1/2003	
  

7/1/2003	
  

3/1/2003	
  

EM	
  Current	
  Account	
  
Current	
  Account	
  as	
  %	
  of	
  GDP	
  
2003-­‐2013	
  

6	
  

4	
  

2	
  

Indonesia	
  

Brazil	
  

India	
  

South	
  Africa	
  

Turkey	
  

-­‐8	
  

-­‐10	
  

-­‐12	
  

8	
  
EM	
  Currencies	
  
•  Large	
  budget	
  and	
  CA	
  deficits	
  in	
  EM	
  counCes	
  like	
  India	
  have	
  led	
  to	
  
significant	
  currency	
  declines,	
  but	
  have	
  rallied	
  sharply	
  since	
  the	
  “no	
  taper”	
  
announcement.	
  	
  
	
  
INR	
  SPOT	
  
No	
  Taper	
  

70	
  
68	
  
66	
  
64	
  
62	
  
60	
  
58	
  
56	
  
54	
  
52	
  
50	
  

Nariman	
  Point,	
  LLC	
  

9	
  
EM	
  Benefits	
  from	
  No	
  Taper	
  
TUR	
  vs.	
  TLT	
  	
  
%	
  Change	
  from	
  2012-­‐2013	
  
40.00%	
  

30.00%	
  

20.00%	
  
TUR	
  

10.00%	
  

TLT	
  

0.00%	
  
9/24/12	
   10/24/12	
   11/24/12	
   12/24/12	
   1/24/13	
   2/24/13	
   3/24/13	
   4/24/13	
   5/24/13	
   6/24/13	
   7/24/13	
   8/24/13	
   9/24/13	
  
-­‐10.00%	
  

-­‐20.00%	
  

No	
  Taper	
  
Nariman	
  Point,	
  LLC	
  

10	
  
Alpha	
  GeneraCon:	
  Trading	
  US	
  Fear	
  
•  We	
  closed	
  a	
  short	
  VXX	
  posiCon	
  on	
  Thursday	
  aqer	
  iniCaCng	
  the	
  trade	
  on	
  
Tuesday.	
  	
  
–  Purchased	
  11/16/13	
  $16	
  Puts	
  for	
  approximately	
  $1.40,	
  sold	
  $2.10.	
  	
  
• 

Implied	
  vol	
  was	
  trading	
  north	
  of	
  70	
  with	
  realized	
  in	
  the	
  50s	
  suggesCng	
  that	
  the	
  market	
  was	
  overdoing	
  the	
  
probability	
  of	
  U.S.	
  Default.	
  	
  

11/16	
  $16	
  VXX	
  Put	
  
3.5	
  
3	
  
2.5	
  
2	
  

Nariman	
  Point,	
  LLC	
  

10/11/13	
  0:00	
  

10/10/13	
  0:00	
  

10/9/13	
  0:00	
  

10/8/13	
  0:00	
  

10/7/13	
  0:00	
  

10/6/13	
  0:00	
  

10/5/13	
  0:00	
  

10/4/13	
  0:00	
  

10/3/13	
  0:00	
  

10/2/13	
  0:00	
  

10/1/13	
  0:00	
  

9/30/13	
  0:00	
  

9/29/13	
  0:00	
  

9/28/13	
  0:00	
  

9/27/13	
  0:00	
  

9/26/13	
  0:00	
  

9/25/13	
  0:00	
  

9/24/13	
  0:00	
  

9/23/13	
  0:00	
  

9/22/13	
  0:00	
  

9/21/13	
  0:00	
  

9/20/13	
  0:00	
  

9/19/13	
  0:00	
  

9/18/13	
  0:00	
  

9/17/13	
  0:00	
  

1	
  

9/16/13	
  0:00	
  

1.5	
  

11	
  
Overblown	
  Fear	
  of	
  U.S.	
  Default	
  
1M	
  T-­‐Bill	
  Yield	
  

U.S.	
  CDS	
  Curve	
  

0.4	
  

70	
  

0.35	
  

60	
  

0.3	
  
0.25	
  

50	
  

0.2	
  

40	
  

0.15	
  

30	
  

0.1	
  

20	
  

0.05	
  
0	
  
4/15/13	
  
-­‐0.05	
  

10	
  
5/15/13	
  

6/15/13	
  

7/15/13	
  

8/15/13	
  

9/15/13	
  

0	
  
6M	
  

1Y	
  

2Y	
  

3Y	
  

4Y	
  

5Y	
  

7Y	
  

10Y	
  

The	
  CDS	
  curve	
  has	
  inverted	
  due	
  to	
  largely	
  unfounded	
  risks	
  of	
  a	
  U.S.	
  default.	
  This	
  
creates	
  an	
  opportunity	
  to	
  bet	
  on	
  curve	
  normalizaCon	
  similarly	
  to	
  the	
  summer	
  of	
  2011	
  
during	
  the	
  last	
  debt-­‐ceiling	
  related	
  inversion.	
  	
  

Nariman	
  Point,	
  LLC	
  

12	
  
Alpha	
  GeneraCon:	
  Debt	
  Deal	
  Trade	
  
90	
  
80	
  
70	
  
60	
  
50	
  
40	
  
30	
  
20	
  
10	
  
0	
  

6M	
  
5Y	
  

6m5Y	
  Spread	
  
30	
  
20	
  
10	
  
Bps	
  

The	
  last	
  Cme	
  the	
  curve	
  was	
  inverted	
  
and	
  6m	
  CDS	
  spread	
  traded	
  to	
  a	
  
premium	
  over	
  the	
  5Y	
  was	
  the	
  last	
  debt	
  
ceiling	
  debate	
  in	
  2011.	
  	
  
	
  
In	
  order	
  to	
  match	
  duraCons,	
  one	
  
needs	
  to	
  sell	
  roughly	
  6.8x	
  the	
  6m	
  than	
  
the	
  5Y.	
  	
  
	
  
In	
  2011,	
  the	
  spread	
  normalized	
  	
  by	
  
roughly	
  40bps	
  and	
  now	
  the	
  inversion	
  
is	
  more	
  pronounced	
  senng	
  a	
  trade	
  up	
  
for	
  an	
  even	
  larger	
  potenCal	
  gain.	
  

Bps	
  

6m	
  vs.	
  5Y	
  US	
  CDS	
  

0	
  
-­‐10	
  
-­‐20	
  
-­‐30	
  
-­‐40	
  

Nariman	
  Point,	
  LLC	
  

13	
  
Alpha	
  GeneraCon	
  
•  ConCnue	
  to	
  be	
  bullish	
  on	
  U.S.	
  10Y	
  
–  CPI	
  remains	
  low,	
  government	
  shut	
  down	
  will	
  shave	
  approximately	
  .5%	
  from	
  
Q4	
  GDP	
  growth	
  (although	
  this	
  should	
  be	
  made	
  up	
  in	
  Q1	
  according	
  to	
  Goldman	
  
Sachs	
  research	
  report),	
  U.S.	
  earnings	
  disappointment	
  risk,	
  no	
  2013	
  taper.	
  	
  
–  Probability	
  of	
  U.S.	
  default	
  is	
  infinitely	
  less	
  than	
  risk	
  factors	
  menConed	
  above.	
  	
  
–  Those	
  who	
  are	
  somewhat	
  worried	
  of	
  a	
  disrupCon	
  in	
  the	
  U.S.	
  Bond	
  market	
  may	
  
be	
  interested	
  in	
  diversifying	
  into	
  Mexican	
  and	
  South	
  Korean	
  Bonds.	
  	
  
• 
• 
• 
• 

Mexico	
  has	
  a	
  slight	
  -­‐1.45%	
  current	
  account	
  deficit	
  relaCve	
  to	
  the	
  over	
  5%	
  CA	
  deficits	
  of	
  other	
  EM.	
  	
  
South	
  Korea	
  has	
  over	
  a	
  5%	
  CA	
  surplus.	
  	
  
Both	
  countries	
  weathered	
  the	
  EM	
  volaClity	
  throughout	
  the	
  year.	
  	
  
Although	
  very	
  high	
  correlaCons	
  (see	
  next	
  slide)	
  to	
  U.S.	
  Government	
  bonds,	
  in	
  a	
  tail-­‐risk	
  even	
  these	
  bonds	
  may	
  
outperform	
  simply	
  due	
  to	
  a	
  lack	
  of	
  safe	
  haven	
  assets	
  in	
  the	
  developed	
  word.	
  Asia’s	
  former	
  safe	
  haven	
  asset,	
  
the	
  JGB,	
  is	
  a	
  death	
  trap;	
  Bonds	
  of	
  Eurozone	
  are	
  too	
  risky;	
  Other	
  developed	
  naCons	
  are	
  simply	
  not	
  as	
  auracCve.	
  	
  

	
  

Nariman	
  Point,	
  LLC	
  

14	
  
AlternaCve	
  to	
  U.S.	
  Treasuries	
  
US,	
  Mexico,	
  Korean	
  Govt	
  Yields	
  (%)	
  
2008-­‐2013	
  
12	
  

2008-­‐2013	
  
Correla6on	
  
Current	
  Bond	
  
Dura6on	
  

10	
  

US:MEX	
  
81.81%	
  

MEX:KOR	
  
92.74%	
  

US:KOR	
  
86.25%	
  

US	
  
8.6	
  

MEX	
  
7.07	
  

KOR	
  
8.31	
  

8	
  
US10Y	
  
6	
  

MEX10Y	
  
KOR10Y	
  

4	
  
2	
  
0	
  
10/15/08	
  

10/15/09	
  

10/15/10	
  

10/15/11	
  

10/15/12	
  

Nariman	
  Point,	
  LLC	
  

15	
  
Similar	
  Credit	
  Risks	
  
Korea	
  vs.	
  Mexico	
  5Y	
  CDS	
  Spread	
  
800	
  
700	
  
600	
  

Bps	
  

500	
  
KOREA	
  CDS	
  USD	
  SR	
  5Y	
  Corp	
  

400	
  

MEX	
  CDS	
  USD	
  SR	
  5Y	
  Corp	
  
300	
  
200	
  
100	
  
0	
  
1/6/06	
  

1/6/07	
  

1/6/08	
  

1/6/09	
  

1/6/10	
  

1/6/11	
  

1/6/12	
  

Nariman	
  Point,	
  LLC	
  

1/6/13	
  

16	
  
Recap	
  
•  US	
  equiCes	
  seem	
  vulnerable	
  to	
  a	
  melt-­‐up/down	
  depending	
  poliCcal	
  
rhetoric	
  and	
  earnings	
  season	
  (downside	
  risk	
  on	
  earnings).	
  	
  
•  The	
  Fed	
  Taper,	
  German	
  ElecCon,	
  Syria,	
  	
  Italian	
  poliCcal	
  risks	
  subsided	
  and	
  	
  
lower	
  gas	
  prices	
  are	
  all	
  bullish	
  signals;	
  however	
  markets	
  are	
  not	
  soaring.	
  
One	
  the	
  same	
  token,	
  the	
  government	
  has	
  shut-­‐down	
  for	
  14	
  days	
  and	
  the	
  
U.S.	
  is	
  approaching	
  the	
  debt	
  ceiling	
  and	
  the	
  markets	
  have	
  not	
  collapsed.	
  
The	
  U.S.	
  does	
  not	
  “run	
  out	
  of	
  money”	
  on	
  Thursday	
  it	
  only	
  cannot	
  borrow	
  
any	
  more.	
  There	
  is	
  sCll	
  some,	
  $30B	
  in	
  reserve	
  +	
  tax	
  receipts	
  leq	
  so	
  a	
  U.S.	
  
default	
  would	
  be	
  highly	
  unlikely.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  

Nariman	
  Point,	
  LLC	
  

17	
  
SubscripCon	
  
•  SubscripCon	
  to	
  The	
  Esoteric	
  Report	
  is	
  $225.00	
  USD	
  per	
  month.	
  	
  
•  Please	
  e-­‐mail	
  info@narimanpointgroup.com	
  

Nariman	
  Point,	
  LLC	
  

18	
  

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Esoteric Insights for October 2013 (sample)

  • 1. The Esoteric Report           Published  by,  Nariman  Point,  LLC   Monday  October  14th,  2013   Nariman  Point,  LLC   1  
  • 2. Global  Briefing   •  SCll  no  resoluCon  on  the  U.S.  Government  shutdown  and  debt  ceiling   debates,  but  a  plan  should  pass  within  the  next  48  hours.     –  PrioriCzaCon  of  payments  is  technically  a  default  but  a  8  week  debt  ceiling   raise  is  the  most  likely  outcome.  “Nudging  the  can  down  the  road”  in  the   worlds  of  a  TV  commentator.  ExpecCng  markets  to  rally  strongly  on  a  deal;   however,  it  could  fade    just    as  quickly  a  la  the  “no  taper”  announcement  rally   last  month.   •  China  makes  another  round  of  comments  on  the  US’s  posiCon  as  global   reserve  currency.     –  Chinese  inflaCon  rose  3.1%  YoY,  exports  fell  .3%  YoY.     •  German  officials  cite  US  as  posing  a  larger  risk  to  Global  Markets  than  EU   or  Emerging  Markets.     –  Angela  Merkel  sCll  has  not  obtained  her  coaliCon  government.     –  Talks  of  EU  banking  Union  conCnue  laterally  with  no  REAL  progress.     Nariman  Point,  LLC     2  
  • 3. Global  Briefing   •  ECB  begins  discussions  on  European  bank  recapitalizaCon.     –  Bank  stress  tests  next  year  may  reveal  substanCal  losses  presently  kept  out  of   view  from  the  invesCng  public.     –  The  IMF  states:  “Nobody  knows  the  true  scale  of  poten6al  losses  at  Europe's   banks,  but  the  Interna6onal  Monetary  Fund  hinted  at  the  enormity  of  the   problem  this  month,  saying  that  Spanish  and  Italian  banks  face  230  billion   euros  ($310  billion)  of  losses  alone  on  credit  to  companies  in  the  next  two   years.”   –  Depositors,  share  holders  and  bond  holders  will  be  expected  to  bare  the  first   losses  if  Germany  and  Finland  get  their  way,  while  Spain  and  Italy  will  push  for   access  to  ECB  bailout  funds.  The  quesCon  becomes  how  will  the  losses  be   broken  down  and  how  long  will  it  take  to  agree  on  such  a  plan?     •  German  courts  will  determine  the  legality  of  the  Outright  Monetary   TransacCons  (OMT)  later  this  month.     –  This  policy  tool  allows  the  ECB  to  suppress  borrowing  costs  for  European   naCons.     Nariman  Point,  LLC   3  
  • 4. Global  Briefing   –  The  most  likely  outcome  is  that  German  courts  rule  that  OMT  is  condiConally   legal.  CondiConal  on  what?  We  will  find  out.  Since  OMT  was  announced   European  volaClity  receded  significantly.     10Y  BTP  Yield  since  OMT  Announcement   7.5   7   6.5   6   5.5   5   4.5   4   Nariman  Point,  LLC   10/2/13   9/2/13   8/2/13   7/2/13   6/2/13   5/2/13   4/2/13   3/2/13   2/2/13   1/2/13   12/2/12   11/2/12   10/2/12   9/2/12   8/2/12   7/2/12   6/2/12   5/2/12   4/2/12   3/2/12   2/2/12   3   1/2/12   3.5   4  
  • 5. The  Euro  is  on  Fire:  Why?   •  The  Euro  has  been  on  a  tear  over  the  past  8  months  due  to  an  increasing   current  account  (CA)  surplus  as  well  as  USD  weakness.     –  European  officials  are  poinCng  to  the  Euro’s  8-­‐month  high  as  proof  of  a   European  recovery  but  this  may  not  be  the  case.     –  The  largest  contributor  to  the  Euro’s  strength  has  been  Germany’s   contribuCon  to  the  current  account  surplus.   •  Germany  makes  up  approx.  67%  of  the  total  Eurozone’s  CA  surplus.     –  Total  EU  CA  =  363B  USD;  Germany  CA  =241B  USD   –  In  2012,  Germany  =  104%  of  EU’s  CA  surplus.     •  Germany’s  largest  trading  partner  is  the  rest  of  Europe;  CA  surplus  implies   Germany  not  purchasing  goods  and  services  from  the  periphery.   –  Italy,  Spain,  Portugal  and  Greece  will  not  be  able  to  address  their  employment   issues  unless  Germany  increases  consumpCon  of  goods  produced  in  the   periphery.  The  data  suggests  that  this  is  not  happening.       Nariman  Point,  LLC   5  
  • 6. 0   -­‐5   -­‐10   Nariman  Point,  LLC   4/1/2013   12/1/2012   8/1/2012   4/1/2012   12/1/2011   8/1/2011   4/1/2011   12/1/2010   8/1/2010   4/1/2010   12/1/2009   8/1/2009   4/1/2009   12/1/2008   8/1/2008   4/1/2008   12/1/2007   8/1/2007   4/1/2007   12/1/2006   8/1/2006   4/1/2006   12/1/2005   8/1/2005   4/1/2005   12/1/2004   8/1/2004   4/1/2004   12/1/2003   EU  Current  Accounts   Current  Account  %  of  GDP   2003-­‐2013   10   5   Portugal   Spain   Greece   Italy   Ireland   Germany   EU   -­‐15   -­‐20   Source:  Nariman  Point,  LLC   6  
  • 7. Emerging  Markets:  Taper   •  Taper  in  2013  does  not  seem  likely  given  the  Government  shutdown  and   debt  ceiling  debates,  especially  given  a  new  debt  ceiling  deadline  of  Jan  7.     –  This  would  be  posiCve  for  currencies  and  equiCes  of  countries  with  large   current  account  deficits  who  need  to  borrow  money  to  plug  their  spending   gap.  No  taper  means  financing  costs  will  remain  low…for  now.     US10Y  Yield   20   15   10   12/1/12   2/1/11   4/1/09   6/1/07   8/1/05   10/1/03   2/1/00   4/1/98   6/1/96   12/1/01   Nariman  Point,  LLC   8/1/94   10/1/92   12/1/90   2/1/89   4/1/87   6/1/85   8/1/83   10/1/81   2/1/78   12/1/79   4/1/76   6/1/74   8/1/72   12/1/68   10/1/70   0   2/1/67   5   4/1/65   •  If  the  US  10  Year  conCnues  to  rally  past  2.7%,  this  could  be  bullish  for  the  Indian  Rupee  and  other  large  CA   deficit  countries  like  Turkey.  While  these  are  not  necessarily  reasons  to  invest  in  a  country  for  the  long  haul,   this  is  certainly  a  logical  way  to  play  lower  U.S.  rates  with  greater  upside  than  simply  buying  bonds  outright.   TUR  (Turkish  ETF)  has  outperformed  the  TLT  (20  year  US  Bond  ETF)  since  the  “no  taper”  announcement.   Genng  long  US  10Y+  bonds  has  generated  approximately  3%  returns  post  the  Fed  announcement,  where  as   TUR  is  up  over  20%.     6/1/63   •  7  
  • 8. 0   -­‐2   -­‐4   -­‐6   Nariman  Point,  LLC   3/1/2013   11/1/2012   7/1/2012   3/1/2012   11/1/2011   7/1/2011   3/1/2011   11/1/2010   7/1/2010   3/1/2010   11/1/2009   7/1/2009   3/1/2009   11/1/2008   7/1/2008   3/1/2008   11/1/2007   7/1/2007   3/1/2007   11/1/2006   7/1/2006   3/1/2006   11/1/2005   7/1/2005   3/1/2005   11/1/2004   7/1/2004   3/1/2004   11/1/2003   7/1/2003   3/1/2003   EM  Current  Account   Current  Account  as  %  of  GDP   2003-­‐2013   6   4   2   Indonesia   Brazil   India   South  Africa   Turkey   -­‐8   -­‐10   -­‐12   8  
  • 9. EM  Currencies   •  Large  budget  and  CA  deficits  in  EM  counCes  like  India  have  led  to   significant  currency  declines,  but  have  rallied  sharply  since  the  “no  taper”   announcement.       INR  SPOT   No  Taper   70   68   66   64   62   60   58   56   54   52   50   Nariman  Point,  LLC   9  
  • 10. EM  Benefits  from  No  Taper   TUR  vs.  TLT     %  Change  from  2012-­‐2013   40.00%   30.00%   20.00%   TUR   10.00%   TLT   0.00%   9/24/12   10/24/12   11/24/12   12/24/12   1/24/13   2/24/13   3/24/13   4/24/13   5/24/13   6/24/13   7/24/13   8/24/13   9/24/13   -­‐10.00%   -­‐20.00%   No  Taper   Nariman  Point,  LLC   10  
  • 11. Alpha  GeneraCon:  Trading  US  Fear   •  We  closed  a  short  VXX  posiCon  on  Thursday  aqer  iniCaCng  the  trade  on   Tuesday.     –  Purchased  11/16/13  $16  Puts  for  approximately  $1.40,  sold  $2.10.     •  Implied  vol  was  trading  north  of  70  with  realized  in  the  50s  suggesCng  that  the  market  was  overdoing  the   probability  of  U.S.  Default.     11/16  $16  VXX  Put   3.5   3   2.5   2   Nariman  Point,  LLC   10/11/13  0:00   10/10/13  0:00   10/9/13  0:00   10/8/13  0:00   10/7/13  0:00   10/6/13  0:00   10/5/13  0:00   10/4/13  0:00   10/3/13  0:00   10/2/13  0:00   10/1/13  0:00   9/30/13  0:00   9/29/13  0:00   9/28/13  0:00   9/27/13  0:00   9/26/13  0:00   9/25/13  0:00   9/24/13  0:00   9/23/13  0:00   9/22/13  0:00   9/21/13  0:00   9/20/13  0:00   9/19/13  0:00   9/18/13  0:00   9/17/13  0:00   1   9/16/13  0:00   1.5   11  
  • 12. Overblown  Fear  of  U.S.  Default   1M  T-­‐Bill  Yield   U.S.  CDS  Curve   0.4   70   0.35   60   0.3   0.25   50   0.2   40   0.15   30   0.1   20   0.05   0   4/15/13   -­‐0.05   10   5/15/13   6/15/13   7/15/13   8/15/13   9/15/13   0   6M   1Y   2Y   3Y   4Y   5Y   7Y   10Y   The  CDS  curve  has  inverted  due  to  largely  unfounded  risks  of  a  U.S.  default.  This   creates  an  opportunity  to  bet  on  curve  normalizaCon  similarly  to  the  summer  of  2011   during  the  last  debt-­‐ceiling  related  inversion.     Nariman  Point,  LLC   12  
  • 13. Alpha  GeneraCon:  Debt  Deal  Trade   90   80   70   60   50   40   30   20   10   0   6M   5Y   6m5Y  Spread   30   20   10   Bps   The  last  Cme  the  curve  was  inverted   and  6m  CDS  spread  traded  to  a   premium  over  the  5Y  was  the  last  debt   ceiling  debate  in  2011.       In  order  to  match  duraCons,  one   needs  to  sell  roughly  6.8x  the  6m  than   the  5Y.       In  2011,  the  spread  normalized    by   roughly  40bps  and  now  the  inversion   is  more  pronounced  senng  a  trade  up   for  an  even  larger  potenCal  gain.   Bps   6m  vs.  5Y  US  CDS   0   -­‐10   -­‐20   -­‐30   -­‐40   Nariman  Point,  LLC   13  
  • 14. Alpha  GeneraCon   •  ConCnue  to  be  bullish  on  U.S.  10Y   –  CPI  remains  low,  government  shut  down  will  shave  approximately  .5%  from   Q4  GDP  growth  (although  this  should  be  made  up  in  Q1  according  to  Goldman   Sachs  research  report),  U.S.  earnings  disappointment  risk,  no  2013  taper.     –  Probability  of  U.S.  default  is  infinitely  less  than  risk  factors  menConed  above.     –  Those  who  are  somewhat  worried  of  a  disrupCon  in  the  U.S.  Bond  market  may   be  interested  in  diversifying  into  Mexican  and  South  Korean  Bonds.     •  •  •  •  Mexico  has  a  slight  -­‐1.45%  current  account  deficit  relaCve  to  the  over  5%  CA  deficits  of  other  EM.     South  Korea  has  over  a  5%  CA  surplus.     Both  countries  weathered  the  EM  volaClity  throughout  the  year.     Although  very  high  correlaCons  (see  next  slide)  to  U.S.  Government  bonds,  in  a  tail-­‐risk  even  these  bonds  may   outperform  simply  due  to  a  lack  of  safe  haven  assets  in  the  developed  word.  Asia’s  former  safe  haven  asset,   the  JGB,  is  a  death  trap;  Bonds  of  Eurozone  are  too  risky;  Other  developed  naCons  are  simply  not  as  auracCve.       Nariman  Point,  LLC   14  
  • 15. AlternaCve  to  U.S.  Treasuries   US,  Mexico,  Korean  Govt  Yields  (%)   2008-­‐2013   12   2008-­‐2013   Correla6on   Current  Bond   Dura6on   10   US:MEX   81.81%   MEX:KOR   92.74%   US:KOR   86.25%   US   8.6   MEX   7.07   KOR   8.31   8   US10Y   6   MEX10Y   KOR10Y   4   2   0   10/15/08   10/15/09   10/15/10   10/15/11   10/15/12   Nariman  Point,  LLC   15  
  • 16. Similar  Credit  Risks   Korea  vs.  Mexico  5Y  CDS  Spread   800   700   600   Bps   500   KOREA  CDS  USD  SR  5Y  Corp   400   MEX  CDS  USD  SR  5Y  Corp   300   200   100   0   1/6/06   1/6/07   1/6/08   1/6/09   1/6/10   1/6/11   1/6/12   Nariman  Point,  LLC   1/6/13   16  
  • 17. Recap   •  US  equiCes  seem  vulnerable  to  a  melt-­‐up/down  depending  poliCcal   rhetoric  and  earnings  season  (downside  risk  on  earnings).     •  The  Fed  Taper,  German  ElecCon,  Syria,    Italian  poliCcal  risks  subsided  and     lower  gas  prices  are  all  bullish  signals;  however  markets  are  not  soaring.   One  the  same  token,  the  government  has  shut-­‐down  for  14  days  and  the   U.S.  is  approaching  the  debt  ceiling  and  the  markets  have  not  collapsed.   The  U.S.  does  not  “run  out  of  money”  on  Thursday  it  only  cannot  borrow   any  more.  There  is  sCll  some,  $30B  in  reserve  +  tax  receipts  leq  so  a  U.S.   default  would  be  highly  unlikely.         Nariman  Point,  LLC   17  
  • 18. SubscripCon   •  SubscripCon  to  The  Esoteric  Report  is  $225.00  USD  per  month.     •  Please  e-­‐mail  info@narimanpointgroup.com   Nariman  Point,  LLC   18