LSSC 2012

Kanban:
Thinking tools for
portfolio-level problems

 Mike Burrows (@asplake)




                               	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
           mike@djaa.com
  http://positiveincline.com




                                          Kanban	
  for
                                                      	
  
                                                      	
  
Why “Portfolio-level problems”?

n    Tes$ng	
  the	
  Kanban	
  Method	
  as	
  a	
  
      thinking	
  tool	
  
      n  Less	
  about	
  offering	
  solu$ons	
  to	
  copy	
  

      n  More	
  about	
  framing	
  &	
  solving	
  problems	
  


n    Idea	
  &	
  experience	
  sharing	
  




                                                                     	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
      n  Good	
  &	
  bad	
  
      n  Contextual	
  




                                                                                Kanban	
  for
n    Vision	
  




                                                                                            	
  
                                                                                            	
  
Typical scenario
§  Organisation
   §  Functional, hierarchical, not co-located, part
       outsourced
§  Defined life cycle
   §  Well observed
   §  Specs, signoffs
   §  Cross-functional appetite for improvement,




                                                        	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
       resourced
§  Many fixed-date projects




                                                                   Kanban	
  for
   §  Remaining durations of many months
   §  Very low confidence of date compliance




                                                                               	
  
                                                                               	
  
Kanban	
  for
                                               	
  
                        	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
                                               	
  
Cole sees dead people
Cole sees dead people




                                                                                	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
                                                                                           Kanban	
  for
I	
  see	
  enterprise-­‐scale	
  problems	
  of	
  overwhelming	
  WIP,	
  
      ins$tu$onalized	
  at	
  every	
  level	
  of	
  the	
  organisa$on	
  




                                                                                                       	
  
                                                                                                       	
  
Characteris$cs	
  of	
  typical	
  top-­‐down	
  
  solu$ons	
  to	
  porIolio	
  level	
  problems 	
  

n    Narrow	
  

n    Compliance-­‐driven	
  

n    Push	
  




                                                           	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
n    Disconnect	
  between	
  person	
  &	
  system	
  




                                                                      Kanban	
  for
      n  Disrespect	
  




                                                                                  	
  
                                                                                  	
  
Scaling	
  up	
  has	
  its	
  issues	
  too	
  


n    “We	
  don’t	
  know	
  what	
  each	
  person	
  
      is	
  working	
  on”	
  
      n  So	
  allocate	
  them?	
  


n    “We’ve	
  no$ced	
  that	
  people	
  are	
  too	
  




                                                              	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
      busy	
  on	
  too	
  many	
  things”	
  
      n  So	
  add	
  some	
  front	
  end	
  process?	
  




                                                                         Kanban	
  for
                                                                                     	
  
                                                                                     	
  
No	
  maPer	
  how	
  narrow	
  you	
  make	
  the	
  
funnel	
  or	
  how	
  fine	
  you	
  make	
  the	
  filter…	
  




                                                                 	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
                                                                            Kanban	
  for
       ...the	
  pipeline	
  will	
  remain	
  full
                                                  	
  




                                                                                        	
  
                                                                                        	
  
PorIolio	
  level	
  problems
                                         	
  



n    They’re	
  very	
  real	
  
n    From	
  all	
  sides,	
  solu$ons	
  that	
  don’t	
  
      help,	
  miss	
  the	
  point	
  or	
  make	
  things	
  
      worse	
  




                                                                  	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
                                                                             Kanban	
  for
                                                                                         	
  
                                                                                         	
  
The	
  6	
  Kanban	
  prac$ces    	
  
 	
  –	
  are	
  they	
  even	
  relevant	
  here? 	
  

1.Visualize
2. Limit work-in-progress
3. Manage flow
4. Make process policies explicit




                                                          	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
5. Implement feedback loops
6. Improve collaboratively (using models)




                                                                     Kanban	
  for
                                                                                 	
  
                                                                                 	
  
The	
  6	
  Kanban	
  prac$ces    	
  
 	
  –	
  are	
  they	
  even	
  relevant	
  here? 	
  

1.Visualize
2. Limit work-in-progress
3. Manage flow

4. Make process policies explicit




                                                          	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
5. Implement feedback loops
6. Improve collaboratively (using models)




                                                                     Kanban	
  for
                                                                                 	
  
                                                                                 	
  
1.Visualize


n     Visualize	
  work	
  
       n  Projects1	
  

       n  Non-­‐projects	
  

n     Demand	
  &	
  supply	
  




                                   	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
n     Flow,	
  delivery	
  
	
  




                                              Kanban	
  for
1Disclaimers	
  apply	
  




                                                          	
  
                                                          	
  
2. Limit work-in-progress


n    PorIolio	
  constraints	
  designed	
  to	
  
      generate	
  flow	
  &	
  provoke	
  improvement	
  
      n  Number	
  

      n  Size	
  ($,	
  dura$on	
  expected)	
  

      n  WIP	
  ($,	
  elapsed	
  incurred)	
  




                                                           	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
      n  Burn	
  rate	
  

      n  Delivery	
  intensity	
  /	
  smoothness	
  




                                                                      Kanban	
  for
      n  Cost	
  of	
  Carry	
  




                                                                                  	
  
                                                                                  	
  
At	
  both	
  extremes	
  of	
  scale,	
  limi$ng	
  by	
  
         number	
  is	
  very	
  effec$ve      	
  


n    #	
  of	
  developer-­‐level	
  work	
  items	
  

n    #	
  of	
  ini$a$ves	
  




                                                              	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
                                                                         Kanban	
  for
                                                                                     	
  
                                                                                     	
  
At	
  intermediate	
  scales,	
  visualizing	
  or	
  
        limi$ng	
  by	
  number	
  is	
  less	
  help	
  


n    Projects	
  vary	
  in	
  size	
  by	
  orders	
  of	
  
      magnitude	
  
n    Volume	
  

      Not	
  everything	
  is	
  (or	
  should	
  be)	
  a	
  project	
  




                                                                            	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
n 




                                                                                       Kanban	
  for
                                                                                                   	
  
                                                                                                   	
  
Some	
  relevant	
  $$	
  measures	
  for	
  single	
  
                          projects 	
  




      J   F   M   A   M    J   J   A   S   O   N   D   1    2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12
                          Burn                                              WIP

n    Leverage	
  what	
  you	
  




                                                                                                           	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
      have	
  now	
                                    J   F    M   A   M   J   J   A   S   O    N    D
                                                           Cost of Carry (cumulative)
n    Derive	
  or	
  es$mate	
  




                                                                                                                      Kanban	
  for
      before	
  adding	
  new	
  
      tracking	
  




                                                                                                                                  	
  
                                                                                                                                  	
  
Size:	
  cost	
  *	
  dura$on	
  

         n    You	
  probably	
  want	
  to	
  
               penalize	
  both	
  
         n    You	
  might	
  wish	
  to	
  trade	
  them	
  
Cost




                                                                 	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
                                                                            Kanban	
  for
                     Duration




                                                                                        	
  
                                                                                        	
  
More	
  ques$ons	
  of	
  cost	
  *	
  $me	
  

n    Where	
  is	
  the	
  inventory	
  that	
  we	
  should	
  help	
  out	
  
      of	
  the	
  door?	
  
n    Which	
  projects	
  should	
  we	
  try	
  hardest	
  to	
  split?	
  
n    Where	
  has	
  our	
  posi$on	
  worsened	
  
      unexpectedly?	
  
n    What	
  is	
  my	
  porIolio	
  cycle	
  $me?	
  




                                                                                   	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
       n    By	
  IT	
  or	
  business	
  stream?	
  
       n    By	
  class	
  of	
  service?	
  




                                                                                              Kanban	
  for
n    What	
  is	
  our	
  inventory	
  cos$ng	
  to	
  hold?	
  




                                                                                                          	
  
                                                                                                          	
  
Cost	
  of	
  Carry	
  

n    Cost	
  *	
  rate	
  integrated	
  over	
  $me	
  
n    Roughly	
  propor$onal	
  to	
  cost	
  *	
  dura$on	
  
n    Apply	
  a	
  meaningful	
  rate	
  that	
  reflects	
  
      both	
  financing	
  and	
  delay	
  costs	
  
       n  >>	
  your	
  cost	
  of	
  funds	
  




                                                                 	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
       n  >	
  25%	
  p.a.	
  (Reinertsen)	
  

       n  >	
  2	
  *	
  your	
  hurdle	
  rate	
  (me)	
  




                                                                            Kanban	
  for
       n  Risk-­‐adjusted?	
  




                                                                                        	
  
                                                                                        	
  
Many	
  of	
  these	
  measures	
  can	
  be	
  
           aggregated,	
  sliced	
  &	
  diced 	
  
Limit this…
to limit this




         J        F       M   A     M      J   J       A   S   O     N    D




                Analyse           Design           Build           Test




                                                                              	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
                                                                                         Kanban	
  for
                                   Limit to capacity




                                                                                                     	
  
                                                                                                     	
  
3. Manage flow

n    Visual	
  management,	
  DSS	
  
       n  See	
  inventory	
  &	
  its	
  cost	
  
       n  See	
  flow	
  as	
  inventory	
  turnover	
  

       n  See	
  bright	
  spots,	
  rough	
  spots	
  
           what’s	
  dragging,	
  where	
  to	
  intervene	
  
       n  Time	
  dimension,	
  backwards	
  &	
  forwards	
  




                                                                        	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
n    A	
  support,	
  not	
  a	
  subs$tute	
  for	
  leadership	
  
       n    An	
  organiza$onal	
  feedback	
  mechanism,	
  




                                                                                   Kanban	
  for
             “tension”	
  for	
  improvement	
  
n    Make	
  the	
  most	
  of	
  what	
  you	
  have	
  now	
  




                                                                                               	
  
                                                                                               	
  
@alhui	
  nails	
  it
                                           	
  

n    Provide	
  just-­‐in-­‐$me	
  informa$on	
  to	
  
      promote	
  market	
  liquidity	
  and	
  buyer	
  
      decision-­‐making	
  #lssc12	
  
n    Money	
  is	
  not	
  our	
  currency.	
  It's	
  not	
  
      scarce	
  enough.	
  Time	
  and	
  effort	
  are	
  our	
  
      unit	
  of	
  currency	
  #lssc12	
  




                                                                    	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
                                                                               Kanban	
  for
                                                                                           	
  
                                                                                           	
  
My	
  hope	
  is	
  that	
  these…	
  
    1.Visualize
    2. Limit work-in-progress
    3. Manage flow

…lead	
  to	
  these	
  




                                                	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
    4. Make process policies explicit
    5. Implement feedback loops




                                                           Kanban	
  for
    6. Improve collaboratively (using models)




                                                                       	
  
                                                                       	
  
But	
  first	
  these…	
  


                            Leadership


                     Agreement


               Respect




                                         	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
         Understanding




                                                    Kanban	
  for
                                                                	
  
                                                                	
  
Cole sees dead people




                                                                                	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
                                                                                           Kanban	
  for
I	
  see	
  enterprise-­‐scale	
  problems	
  of	
  overwhelming	
  WIP,	
  
      ins$tu$onalized	
  at	
  every	
  level	
  of	
  the	
  organisa$on	
  




                                                                                                       	
  
                                                                                                       	
  
To:	
  kanbandev	
  
Subject:	
  	
  #ppm	
  <subject>	
  
	
  
Your	
  problems,	
  thoughts,	
  experience	
  




                                                   	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
                                                              Kanban	
  for
                                                                          	
  
                                                                          	
  
Thank you.

Questions?




                                     	
  Por*olio	
  Problems
                                                Kanban	
  for
       Mike Burrows (@asplake)
                 mike@djaa.com
        http://positiveincline.com




                                                            	
  
                                                            	
  

Kanban: Thinking tools for portfolio-level problems

  • 1.
    LSSC 2012 Kanban: Thinking toolsfor portfolio-level problems Mike Burrows (@asplake)  Por*olio  Problems mike@djaa.com http://positiveincline.com Kanban  for    
  • 2.
    Why “Portfolio-level problems”? n  Tes$ng  the  Kanban  Method  as  a   thinking  tool   n  Less  about  offering  solu$ons  to  copy   n  More  about  framing  &  solving  problems   n  Idea  &  experience  sharing    Por*olio  Problems n  Good  &  bad   n  Contextual   Kanban  for n  Vision      
  • 3.
    Typical scenario §  Organisation §  Functional, hierarchical, not co-located, part outsourced §  Defined life cycle §  Well observed §  Specs, signoffs §  Cross-functional appetite for improvement,  Por*olio  Problems resourced §  Many fixed-date projects Kanban  for §  Remaining durations of many months §  Very low confidence of date compliance    
  • 4.
    Kanban  for    Por*olio  Problems   Cole sees dead people
  • 5.
    Cole sees deadpeople  Por*olio  Problems Kanban  for I  see  enterprise-­‐scale  problems  of  overwhelming  WIP,   ins$tu$onalized  at  every  level  of  the  organisa$on      
  • 6.
    Characteris$cs  of  typical  top-­‐down   solu$ons  to  porIolio  level  problems   n  Narrow   n  Compliance-­‐driven   n  Push    Por*olio  Problems n  Disconnect  between  person  &  system   Kanban  for n  Disrespect      
  • 7.
    Scaling  up  has  its  issues  too   n  “We  don’t  know  what  each  person   is  working  on”   n  So  allocate  them?   n  “We’ve  no$ced  that  people  are  too    Por*olio  Problems busy  on  too  many  things”   n  So  add  some  front  end  process?   Kanban  for    
  • 8.
    No  maPer  how  narrow  you  make  the   funnel  or  how  fine  you  make  the  filter…    Por*olio  Problems Kanban  for ...the  pipeline  will  remain  full      
  • 9.
    PorIolio  level  problems   n  They’re  very  real   n  From  all  sides,  solu$ons  that  don’t   help,  miss  the  point  or  make  things   worse    Por*olio  Problems Kanban  for    
  • 10.
    The  6  Kanban  prac$ces    –  are  they  even  relevant  here?   1.Visualize 2. Limit work-in-progress 3. Manage flow 4. Make process policies explicit  Por*olio  Problems 5. Implement feedback loops 6. Improve collaboratively (using models) Kanban  for    
  • 11.
    The  6  Kanban  prac$ces    –  are  they  even  relevant  here?   1.Visualize 2. Limit work-in-progress 3. Manage flow 4. Make process policies explicit  Por*olio  Problems 5. Implement feedback loops 6. Improve collaboratively (using models) Kanban  for    
  • 12.
    1.Visualize n  Visualize  work   n  Projects1   n  Non-­‐projects   n  Demand  &  supply    Por*olio  Problems n  Flow,  delivery     Kanban  for 1Disclaimers  apply      
  • 13.
    2. Limit work-in-progress n  PorIolio  constraints  designed  to   generate  flow  &  provoke  improvement   n  Number   n  Size  ($,  dura$on  expected)   n  WIP  ($,  elapsed  incurred)    Por*olio  Problems n  Burn  rate   n  Delivery  intensity  /  smoothness   Kanban  for n  Cost  of  Carry      
  • 14.
    At  both  extremes  of  scale,  limi$ng  by   number  is  very  effec$ve   n  #  of  developer-­‐level  work  items   n  #  of  ini$a$ves    Por*olio  Problems Kanban  for    
  • 15.
    At  intermediate  scales,  visualizing  or   limi$ng  by  number  is  less  help   n  Projects  vary  in  size  by  orders  of   magnitude   n  Volume   Not  everything  is  (or  should  be)  a  project    Por*olio  Problems n  Kanban  for    
  • 16.
    Some  relevant  $$  measures  for  single   projects   J F M A M J J A S O N D 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Burn WIP n  Leverage  what  you    Por*olio  Problems have  now   J F M A M J J A S O N D Cost of Carry (cumulative) n  Derive  or  es$mate   Kanban  for before  adding  new   tracking      
  • 17.
    Size:  cost  *  dura$on   n  You  probably  want  to   penalize  both   n  You  might  wish  to  trade  them   Cost  Por*olio  Problems Kanban  for Duration    
  • 18.
    More  ques$ons  of  cost  *  $me   n  Where  is  the  inventory  that  we  should  help  out   of  the  door?   n  Which  projects  should  we  try  hardest  to  split?   n  Where  has  our  posi$on  worsened   unexpectedly?   n  What  is  my  porIolio  cycle  $me?    Por*olio  Problems n  By  IT  or  business  stream?   n  By  class  of  service?   Kanban  for n  What  is  our  inventory  cos$ng  to  hold?      
  • 19.
    Cost  of  Carry   n  Cost  *  rate  integrated  over  $me   n  Roughly  propor$onal  to  cost  *  dura$on   n  Apply  a  meaningful  rate  that  reflects   both  financing  and  delay  costs   n  >>  your  cost  of  funds    Por*olio  Problems n  >  25%  p.a.  (Reinertsen)   n  >  2  *  your  hurdle  rate  (me)   Kanban  for n  Risk-­‐adjusted?      
  • 20.
    Many  of  these  measures  can  be   aggregated,  sliced  &  diced   Limit this… to limit this J F M A M J J A S O N D Analyse Design Build Test  Por*olio  Problems Kanban  for Limit to capacity    
  • 21.
    3. Manage flow n  Visual  management,  DSS   n  See  inventory  &  its  cost   n  See  flow  as  inventory  turnover   n  See  bright  spots,  rough  spots   what’s  dragging,  where  to  intervene   n  Time  dimension,  backwards  &  forwards    Por*olio  Problems n  A  support,  not  a  subs$tute  for  leadership   n  An  organiza$onal  feedback  mechanism,   Kanban  for “tension”  for  improvement   n  Make  the  most  of  what  you  have  now      
  • 22.
    @alhui  nails  it   n  Provide  just-­‐in-­‐$me  informa$on  to   promote  market  liquidity  and  buyer   decision-­‐making  #lssc12   n  Money  is  not  our  currency.  It's  not   scarce  enough.  Time  and  effort  are  our   unit  of  currency  #lssc12    Por*olio  Problems Kanban  for    
  • 23.
    My  hope  is  that  these…   1.Visualize 2. Limit work-in-progress 3. Manage flow …lead  to  these    Por*olio  Problems 4. Make process policies explicit 5. Implement feedback loops Kanban  for 6. Improve collaboratively (using models)    
  • 24.
    But  first  these…   Leadership Agreement Respect  Por*olio  Problems Understanding Kanban  for    
  • 25.
    Cole sees deadpeople  Por*olio  Problems Kanban  for I  see  enterprise-­‐scale  problems  of  overwhelming  WIP,   ins$tu$onalized  at  every  level  of  the  organisa$on      
  • 26.
    To:  kanbandev   Subject:    #ppm  <subject>     Your  problems,  thoughts,  experience    Por*olio  Problems Kanban  for    
  • 27.
    Thank you. Questions?  Por*olio  Problems Kanban  for Mike Burrows (@asplake) mike@djaa.com http://positiveincline.com