13. Populate
المعرفة ادارة نموذج
KM
Domain Specific
BP
ذات عمل منظومات
عالقة
Domain Specific
BP
ذات عمل منظومات
عالقة
Domain Specific
Knowledge Base
Domain
Specific
Knowledge
Base
والبيانات والمستندات النماذج ادارة
Populate
Reference
Reference
Interface & Integrate
LMIS CGS
Integration
21. دولية ومقارانات دراسات
• Driver for change for skill demand
• Overview of Quantitative and qualitative LMIS
• What are the available models
• Sample from other countries
22. Drivers of change for Skills Demand
دولية دراسات
متغيرات
تحت السوق
الدراسة
23. Overview of Quantitative and Qualitative LMIS
Quantitative Qualitative
Sector
Studies
Econometric
Modeling
Signaling
Job
Opportunity
Index
Enterprise
Survey
Special Studies
(Tracer/Rate
of Return)
Stakeholder
Driven
Forums
Use of
Administrative
Data
النظريات واختبار تحليل
من المختلفة االقتصادية
رسم في والمساعدة ،ناحية
القرارات واتخاذ السياسات
والتنبؤالمتغيرات بقيم
المستقب في االقتصاديةمن ل
أخرى ناحية
24. LMIS: Quantitative
and Qualitative
Approaches
LEVELOFACURACY
COMPLEXITY AND RESOURCE REQUIREMENT
Sector
Studies
Econometric
Modeling
Signaling
Job
Opportunity
Index
Enterprise
Training
Survey
Special Studies
(Tracer/Rate
of Return)
Stakeholder
Driven
Forums
Use of
Administrative
Data
25. Quantitative Approaches to Labor Market Information
SimplestMostComplex
LEVELOFCOMPLEXITY
Approach Benefit Limitation Output Resources
Enterprise
Survey
More specific,
enterprise
level data
Limited to
sectors,
costly
Specific skills
needs of
enterprises
Expertise in
specialized
methods
Econometric
Modeling
Consistent
overview and
forecast
Data
dependent,
Costly, Time
consuming
Projections of
demand
&supply by
occupation/
industry
Expertise in
econo-
metrics,LFS
data
Signaling
Simple, Easy
to do and
update
Data
dependent
Difficult to
interpret
General
trends in skills
demand and
supply
Statistical
knowledge
Time series
Source:
Sparreboom and Powell, Labor Market information and analysis for skills development, ILO Employment Trends Unit
26. Use of
Administrative
Data
little cost,
readily
available
data
#of
enterprises,
employed,
unemployed
Limited to
available
data
Man hours for
collation,
admin data
Job
Opportunity
Index
Gives insight
into
changing
demand
Limited
coverage,
resource
intensive
Newspaper
accounts
List of skills
demand
based on
vacancies
SimplestMostComplex
LEVELOFCOMPLEXITY
Approach Benefit Limitation Output Resources
Source:
Sparreboom and Powell, Labor Market information and analysis for skills development, ILO Employment Trends Unit
Quantitative Approaches to Labor Market Information
27. Qualitative Approaches to Labor Market Information
SimplestMostComplex
LEVELOFCOMPLEXITY
Approach Benefit Limitation Output Resource
Special Studies
(Tracer/Rate
of Return)
More specific
information
vis D&S
factors
Subject
specific/
qualitative
D&S factors
Expertise in
specialized
studies
Partial view,
costly
Source:
Sparreboom and Powell, Labor Market information and analysis for skills development, ILO Employment Trends Unit
Sector
Studies
Comprehen-
sive vis sector
D&S factors
Sector
specific data
on demand
and supply
Expertise in
quantitative/
qualitative
analysis
Limited
scope, partial
view, costly if
for all sectors
Stakeholder
Driven
Forums
D&S data with
context/
qualitative
factors
Participatory
Forum for
discussion
Individuals
might
dominate
Regular
forum
discussion
28. Is there a perfect model for
anticipating
skill demands?
Econometric
modeling
Job opportunity index Enterprise survey
SignalingUse of admin data
Special studies Sector studies
Stakeholder driven
forum
دراسات
دولية
29. • Econometric modeling to
project future labor demand
on a national level by industry
and occupation
• Annual LFS and employee
surveys
• Each state conducts LMIA.
Econometric
modeling
Job opportunity index Enterprise survey
SignalingUse of admin data
Special studies Sector studies
Stakeholder driven
forum
Occupational Projections National
Employment Average Annual Openings
SOC
Code
Occupation Est 2008 Proj 2018 Change Growth Replce Total
41-
1011
First-Line
Supervisors/Managers of
Retail Sales Workers
1,685,500 1,773,900 5.2% 8,840 36,170 45,010
41-
1012
First-Line
Supervisors/Managers of
Non-Retail Sales Workers
506,800 531,200 4.8% 2,440 10,510 12,950
41-
2011
Cashiers 3,550,000 3,675,500 3.5% 12,550 159,440 171,990
US LMI Model
دراسات
دولية
30. Okun's law representing the relationship between GDP growth
and the unemployment rate. The fitted line is found using
regression analysis.
31. • The Skills Development Planning Unit (SDPU) conducts quarterly monitoring reports
on skills supply and the outcomes of training
• Sector Education and Training Authorities (SETAs) conduct sector studies and
stakeholder consultations
• The SDPU also now developing an econometric model for employment projections
The South African LMI Model
Econometric modeling
Job opportunity index Enterprise survey
SignalingUse of admin data
Special studies Sector studies
Stakeholder driven
forum
• The Human Sciences
Research Council (HSRC)
conducts labor market
studies covering priority
sectors utilising employer
surveys
• HSRC conducts semi-annual
LFS and enterprise-based
manpower surveys
دراسات
دولية
32. Sri Lanka LMI Model
Econometric modeling
Job opportunity index Enterprise survey
SignalingUse of admin data
Special studies Sector studies
Stakeholder driven
forum
• Occasional sector studies, e.g.: RMG, provide information on enterprise
characteristics and distribution and an overview of government policies related to
the sector
• TVEC collects and publishes statistics on training, training providers and labor
market data, including job vacancies, based largely on administrative data
• Occasional tracer studies
• Job vacancies
collected from
newspapers as well as
published through Jobs
Net
• Annual labor force
surveys since 1992
دراسات
دولية
33. Sample output
1. Total number of employed people, 2009/10 3
2. Total number of unemployed people, 2009/10 4
3. Unemployment level by age group, 2009/10 6
4. Ordinary unemployment claimants by age group, 2009/ 10 8
5. Educational level of ordinary unemployment claimants: April 2009 to March 2010 9
6. Reasons for termination in commercial employment: 2007/08 to 2009/10 10
7. Growth in the number of commercial employees: April 2009 to March 2010 11
8. Growth in the number of domestic employees: April 2009 to March 2010 11
9. Total number of job vacancies in the financial year 2009/10 13
10. Distribution of vacancies per provincial office 14
11. Quarterly number of vacancies by occupational group 15
12. Quarterly number of vacancies in managerial occupational group 16
13. Quarterly number of vacancies in managerial occupational group per provincial office 16
14. Quarterly number of vacancies in professional occupational group 17
15. Quarterly number of vacancies in professional occupational group per provincial office 18
16. Quarterly number of vacancies in clerical and administrative occupational group 18
17. Quarterly number of vacancies in technicians’ occupational group
40. Working Team
Hassan El-Meligy
hmeligy@megacom-int.com
Director of Strategic Management Solutions
Megacom
Management consultant and ICT Expert
Masters of Science in Business Information Technology
IEEE / ACM / PMI and European Information Society Member