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LIBOR Transition
Abul HASNAT
Director – Risk, Regulatory and Finance
(917) 859-3864
abul.hasnat@sia-partners.com
Taking Action in an Uncertain Environment
April 2019
Theo RABOUIN
Senior Consultant
(646) 496-0160
theo.rabouin@sia-partners.com
Daniel H. CONNOR
CEO US
(862) 596-0649
daniel.connor@sia-partners.com
CONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 2
Impact of LIBOR’s Demise1
Alternate Rates Designated to Replace LIBOR2
Importance of Taking Action Now5
Key Steps in Preparing for the Transition4
• Identify Current LIBOR Exposure
• Determine Alternate Replacement Rate or Rates
• Modify Impacted Contracts to Reflect New Rates
• System and Process Changes to Handle Transition
Table of Contents
Conclusions and Key Takeaways6
About Sia Partners7
Differences Between SOFR and LIBOR3
CONFIDENTIAL © Sia PartnersCONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 3
Impact of LIBOR’s Demise
The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) has been the interest rate benchmark referenced by a wide array of derivatives, loans and securities
products for many decades. Scandals related to the manipulation of LIBOR have diminished confidence in its reliability and prompted regulators
and industry organizations to initiate efforts to find a suitable replacement.
 The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), which has regulated LIBOR since 2013, announced in July 2017 that it will not compel or persuade
banks to make LIBOR submissions after December 31, 2021.
Anticipated complexity due to non-standardization
Anticipatedcomplexityduetovolume
OTC Derivatives
Exchange Traded Derivatives
Securitizations
Bonds
Business Loans
USD LIBOR product spread and complexity of transition
The impact of transitioning away from LIBOR cannot be overstated due to the massive footprint of products referencing LIBOR and the immense
planning and effort needed in order to manage the transition.
 Global footprint of $370 trillion gross outstanding
notional of instruments referencing LIBOR - USD
LIBOR accounts for $200 trillion
 Many outstanding questions with regards to
identifying a suitable replacement
 Organizations not operationally prepared to
support such a transition
 Millions of legal contracts tied to LIBOR
 Not guaranteed to be available after 2021
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Why it is a big deal
Consumer Loans
CONFIDENTIAL © Sia PartnersCONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 4
Alternate Rates Designated to Replace LIBOR
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (NY FED) has established the Alternative Reference Rates Committee (ARRC) to help ensure a successful
transition from USD LIBOR to a more robust reference rate. In July of 2017, ARRC announced that the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR)
would be its recommended replacement for USD LIBOR.
While we explore the transition from USD LIBOR to SOFR, it is important to note that other regions have initiated similar efforts to find
replacements for LIBOR rates in other currencies.
 ARRC considered several criteria in determining its recommended
replacement, including the following:
1. Benchmark Quality
2. Methodological Quality
3. Accountability
4. Governance
5. Ease of Implementation
 ARRC has published a “Paced Transition Plan” to facilitate and
encourage the transition to SOFR
SOFR: description and background Alternate rates from other regions
TODAY
2012 July
LIBOR manipulation exposed
Calendar
2017 - June
ARRC recommends SOFR as
alternative to USD LIBOR
2018 - July
ARRC unveils indicative
SOFR term rate
2014 - November
ARRC established to find
alternative rate
European Union
ESTER - European Central Bank
United Kingdom
SONIA - Bank of England
Switzerland
SARON - SNB with SIX Swiss Exchange
Japan
TONAR - Bank of Japan
2019
Continue to build SOFR
linked instruments
2019 – H1
Develop transition plan for
move to SOFR and take action
2017 - July
FCA plans to no longer compel
submission of LIBOR past 2021
2021 – Q2
CCPs no longer accept new swap contracts
for clearing with EFFR as PAI and discounting
2021 – EoY
Create term-rate SOFR
Complete transition to SOFR
2019 – EoY
ISDA plans to amend
definitions and offer a protocol
CONFIDENTIAL © Sia PartnersCONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 5
LIBOR SOFR
Unsecured rate
(includes a built-in credit component)
Secured /
Unsecured
Secured rate
Seven maturities
(from overnight up to 12 months)
Maturity Overnight
$500 million
in daily underlying transactions for 3-mo. LIBOR
Volume
$800 billion
in daily underlying transactions
Mean of panel bank submission rates
(excluding several higher and lower rates)
Calculation
Volume weighted median
(for combined repo datasets)
11:55am (GMT) Publication Time 8:30am (EST)
ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES
 Several different tenors
available
 More consistency
across regions using
different variations of
LIBOR
 Reduced confidence due
to manipulation scandals
 As the rate is unsecured,
additional risks are built-
in to adjust accordingly
Pros & Cons  Calculated based on
actual data, making it less
vulnerable to
manipulation
 Reflects fewer risks due
to being secured, so rate
is lower
 Only one maturity,
term rates have to be
created
 Adjustments are
needed to make it
more comparable to
LIBOR
Differences Between SOFR and LIBOR
SOFR is intended to be a more reliable benchmark than LIBOR and while there are some clear advantages in transitioning to SOFR.
 The differences between the two pose a challenge in administering the change.
VS
CONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 6
CEASE USE OF LIBOR
Key Steps in Preparing for the Transition
Systems and Processes
Much of the details around how SOFR will
work is still unclear, including whether
adjustments will be needed and what are the
other options if there is no forward term
SOFR available. Systems and processes must
be prepared for all possibilities as waiting for
resolutions to all issues may not be an option.
Identify LIBOR Exposure
In order to be fully aware of the impact of such
a transition, organizations must know their
exposure to LIBOR connected instruments. The
range and volume of this exposure will provide
guidance for the planning and immediate next
steps.
Modify Legal Contracts
Inventory of contracts referencing LIBOR
need to be amended to incorporate fallback
language in case of unavailability of LIBOR.
ISDA will help facilitate some of the
changes by proposing amendments but
organizations will be responsible for
implementing many of the changes.
Determine Replacement
Rate or Rates
While it’s clear that SOFR is the designated
replacement for USD LIBOR, the calculation of a
forward looking term rate is still unclear. Much of
this will be determined through industry
consensus and ARRC recommendations which
organizations must stay in tune with.
LIBOR Transition Program
The transition from LIBOR to SOFR will undoubtedly be a prolonged effort, making it critical to get a head start in not only planning, but also taking
action where possible. Waiting for the uncertainties to be sorted out risks leaving the organization unprepared and incapable of making the switch
within the timeframe communicated by regulators and industry organizations.
 Setting up a governance structure to execute and monitor the transition should be a top priority.
CONFIDENTIAL © Sia PartnersCONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 7
Identify Current LIBOR Exposure
Sia Partners employs Data Analytics and
Robotic Process Automation (RPA)
technology to review documentation
and identify link to LIBOR, essentially
automating a key aspect of the
identification process
Sia Partners insights
Identified risks
 Newly issued instruments linked to
LIBOR will increase the exposure and
the scope of the transition
 Manual processes are always more
time-consuming and prone to errors
such as omitting certain LIBOR-linked
instruments in the identification
process
Stakeholders to involve
 Business heads
 Technology and systems
 Legal and contract management
Key actions and considerations
# 1
 Review product inventory to determine
current exposure to LIBOR
 The exposures identified helps narrow the
contracts to be reviewed and amended
# 2
 Assess expiring contracts to determine
those expiring before LIBOR cessation
 Focus should be on contracts not expiring
until after 2021 and any new LIBOR linked
contracts issued
# 3
 Review contracts for any linkage to
LIBOR
 Automation can be leveraged to review and
classify contracts, as well as for remediation
# 4
 Define plan for a gradual migration of all
exposures
 Migrating all instruments at the same time
will not be feasible so a phased transition
will be needed
#5
 Identify businesses, functions, systems
and processes impacted
 Early identification will ensure engagement
from appropriate teams
Actions Considerations
Identifying the current exposure to USD LIBOR is the first step in planning for the transition
CONFIDENTIAL © Sia PartnersCONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 8
Determine Alternate Replacement Rate or Rates
Identified risks
 Risk managers may be delayed in
identifying impact of switch to LIBOR
 Delays in finalizing the methodologies
for adjustments and term SOFR
calculation can result in a risk of
reduced time to enact the changes
Stakeholders to involve
 Business leads
 Risk managers
Key questions and answers
# 1
 As SOFR is a secured rate lower than
LIBOR, will a spread adjustment be
needed to compensate?
 ISDA is developing a Credit spread
adjustment for derivatives and ARRC is
doing so for cash products
# 2
 How will a forward looking SOFR term
curve be developed?
 The Fed has published a methodology
paper and ARRC has also published an
indicative SOFR term curve
# 3
 What alternatives are available if an
IOSCO compliant term SOFR is not
available by the end of 2021?
 Alternatives being considered includes:
a. SOFR compounded in advance
b. SOFR compounded in arrears
c. Simple daily SOFR in arrears
SOFR Compounded in AdvanceOf the three alternative options,
what would be the preferred
second fallback rate option?
68%  16% selected up SOFR compounded in Arrears
 16% selected Daily simple SOFR in Arrears
SOFR is clearly the designated replacement for USD LIBOR, but many questions remain
Questions Answers
Source: Live poll of LSTA Operations Conference participants, April 9, 2019 (approximately 100 respondents)
The decision on SOFR spread
adjustments and forward looking term
rate cannot be made in isolation.
Industry consensus is critical, as is
preparation for all possible outcomes
Sia Partners insights
CONFIDENTIAL © Sia PartnersCONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 9
Modify Impacted Contracts to Reflect New Rates
Identified risks
 Amending a large number of
contracts once LIBOR ceases will not
be practical
 Fallbacks should be thoroughly vetted
to prevent unintended consequences
Stakeholders to involve
 Legal
 Compliance
 Operations
Key questions and answers
# 1  What is fallback language?
 Fallback language governs what rate a loan
would revert to if LIBOR was no longer
available
# 2
 What considerations need to be taken
in determining the fallback language?
 Fallbacks have to consider a trigger event, a
replacement rate and adjustment
# 3
 What type of triggers can initiate the
transition from LIBOR to SOFR?
 Mandatory triggers: 2 ISDA triggers and 3
“pre-cessation” triggers have been proposed
 Early Opt-in triggers: helps reduce LIBOR
linked contracts prior to cessation
# 4
 Which contracts should be modified
first?
 It’s not practical to handle all amendments at
once so best to prioritize where possible
# 5
 Will adopting more robust contract
language lead regulators to treat the
amended contracts as new trades?
 This is currently being discussed in ARRC’s
Regulatory Issues working group
To amend existing contracts, clarity is needed on the new language to be used and the process for making changes
Questions Answers
Of estimated USD LIBOR contracts are maturing by 20211, leaving about 18% to be
amended. This represents millions of documents across the industry and does not
include newly issued contracts which do not mention an alternate rate.
Source: Federal Reserve staff calculations, BIS, Bloomberg, CME, DTCC, Shared National Credit, and JPMorgan Chase. Data are gross notional exposures as of year-end 2016
Contract amendments should be phased
to prioritize those with the highest
combination of clarity of new language
and volume
Robotic Process Automation (RPA)
technology can be used to scan
documents and identify mentions of
LIBOR and facilitate replacement
Sia Partners insights
82%
CONFIDENTIAL © Sia PartnersCONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 10
System and Process Changes to Handle Transition
Identified risks
 Delaying the initiation of system
upgrades risks not having sufficient
time to thoroughly vet and test the
implemented solutions
Stakeholders to involve
 IT
 Business leads
Key questions and answers
# 1  Where will SOFR be sourced from?
 Possibility of making the rates available on
Bloomberg and Reuters screens is being
explored
 Planning can be started on identifying
systems that will need to source and
disseminate the rate information
# 2  What are vendor systems doing?
 Systems like LoanIQ will undoubtedly
accomodate for the new rates and being
aware of these changes can help to plan for
integration and ensure consistency
# 3
 What changes can be made to systems
before the intricacies of SOFR are
decided?
 While there is no final decision on the
spread and the term SOFR, it is clear that
systems will need to handle add-ons to
SOFR, possibly requiring additional fields
within existing systems
Enhancements to systems and processes can be time consuming, raising the urgency of getting a head start
Questions Answers
System enhancements can be initiated
to account for all possible outcomes.
New fields and ways to source data can
be anticipated. Vendor system changes
will require integration with internal
systems
Sia Partners insights
CONFIDENTIAL © Sia PartnersCONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 11
Importance of Taking Action Now
For firms who are not yet aware, not yet engaged, and without plans to address their
LIBOR-related dependencies, I warn you again of the risks.
Andrew Bailey - CEO of the Financial Conduct Authority
The industry is struggling to move forward with the transition given the many uncertainties still needing clarification.
 However, the benefits of taking action now and preparing for all possibilities will far outweigh the costs associated with losing valuable time
waiting for outstanding issues to be resolved.
 Despite the warnings, firms are struggling
to mobilize their transition efforts.
 Some firms may be relying on LIBOR to
continue being published after 2021, while
others may be taking a wait-and-see
approach rather than taking a lead.
 Both approaches carry with them risks, as
transitioning all exposure simultaneously at
a latter date will prove to be impossible.
Industry unprepared for transition to SOFR
65%
Somewhat Knowledgeable Not prepared
How knowledgeable do you feel you
are on the LIBOR transition?
How prepared is your bank for
the transition away from LIBOR?
62%
 24% were not knowledgeable at all
 11% were very knowledgeable
 25% were somewhat prepared
 12% didn’t know
 1% were very prepared
Source: Live poll of LSTA Operations Conference participants, April 9, 2019 (approximately 100 respondents)
CONFIDENTIAL © Sia PartnersCONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 12
Conclusions and Key Takeaways
2. Stay Plugged-In 3. Gain the Advantage1. Mobilize the Organization
One benefit of dealing with an industry-
wide issue is that many aspects of the
solution can also be developed at the
broader level, reducing the risk of being
an outlier in approach.
In order to maintain consistency with the
methodologies being utilized throughout
the industry, it is critical to be aware of
recommendations and other guidelines
being published by organizations such
as ARRCand ISDA.
In addition to consuming the outputs of
such groups, they also serve as a
platform to raise any perceived issues.
The transition from LIBOR to SOFRwill
require prolonged engagement from
many functions within the organization.
Relevant stakeholders must be educated
regarding the impacts of the change and
be fully committed to seeing the
transformation through.
This endeavor can not be handled as a
Business as Usual (BAU) matter, and will
require appropriate project planning,
resourcing, and decision-making in a
timely fashion.
The scope of the challenge that awaits
demands that creative solutions are
explored.
Robotic Process Automation (RPA) will
make the difference between being
overwhelmed by the volume of
documentation to be amended and
having a relatively uneventful transition.
Data analytics can provide a pivotal
advantage in not only identifying the
impacted contracts but also in
facilitating the necessary changes.
CONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 13
Sia Partners is a unique management consulting firm and a pioneer of consulting 4.0
$230M
Revenue for FY18/19
OUR BUSINESS
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Creation date
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Partners
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Consultants on
international
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schemes
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Assignments
per year
Key clients
include 20%
of Fortune 500
50
Surveys
each year
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clients
1,300
Consultants
Clients
worldwide
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CONFIDENTIAL © Sia PartnersCONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 14
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• Conferences, seminars and training
• Sia Partners actively participates in marketplace discussions and
debates, with experts speaking at numerous conferences and
managing professional training sessions throughout the year.
• Think tanks
• Sia Partners is a member of several networks of corporate decision
making bodies, as well as specialist associations promoting Green Deal
business or Financial Services.
Original research
We actively publish thought leadership articles with commentary and analysis on
strategic trends, as well as current topics impacting our clients. Our publications
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Our practices regularly publish newsletters and research studies drawing on
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> More than 15 exclusive studies per year
An active agenda of research and publication A strong contribution to marketplace debate
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CONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 15
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Libor transition Taking Action in an Uncertain Environment

  • 1. Tel: Mail: Tel: Mail: Tel: Mail: LIBOR Transition Abul HASNAT Director – Risk, Regulatory and Finance (917) 859-3864 abul.hasnat@sia-partners.com Taking Action in an Uncertain Environment April 2019 Theo RABOUIN Senior Consultant (646) 496-0160 theo.rabouin@sia-partners.com Daniel H. CONNOR CEO US (862) 596-0649 daniel.connor@sia-partners.com
  • 2. CONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 2 Impact of LIBOR’s Demise1 Alternate Rates Designated to Replace LIBOR2 Importance of Taking Action Now5 Key Steps in Preparing for the Transition4 • Identify Current LIBOR Exposure • Determine Alternate Replacement Rate or Rates • Modify Impacted Contracts to Reflect New Rates • System and Process Changes to Handle Transition Table of Contents Conclusions and Key Takeaways6 About Sia Partners7 Differences Between SOFR and LIBOR3
  • 3. CONFIDENTIAL © Sia PartnersCONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 3 Impact of LIBOR’s Demise The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) has been the interest rate benchmark referenced by a wide array of derivatives, loans and securities products for many decades. Scandals related to the manipulation of LIBOR have diminished confidence in its reliability and prompted regulators and industry organizations to initiate efforts to find a suitable replacement.  The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), which has regulated LIBOR since 2013, announced in July 2017 that it will not compel or persuade banks to make LIBOR submissions after December 31, 2021. Anticipated complexity due to non-standardization Anticipatedcomplexityduetovolume OTC Derivatives Exchange Traded Derivatives Securitizations Bonds Business Loans USD LIBOR product spread and complexity of transition The impact of transitioning away from LIBOR cannot be overstated due to the massive footprint of products referencing LIBOR and the immense planning and effort needed in order to manage the transition.  Global footprint of $370 trillion gross outstanding notional of instruments referencing LIBOR - USD LIBOR accounts for $200 trillion  Many outstanding questions with regards to identifying a suitable replacement  Organizations not operationally prepared to support such a transition  Millions of legal contracts tied to LIBOR  Not guaranteed to be available after 2021 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Why it is a big deal Consumer Loans
  • 4. CONFIDENTIAL © Sia PartnersCONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 4 Alternate Rates Designated to Replace LIBOR The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (NY FED) has established the Alternative Reference Rates Committee (ARRC) to help ensure a successful transition from USD LIBOR to a more robust reference rate. In July of 2017, ARRC announced that the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) would be its recommended replacement for USD LIBOR. While we explore the transition from USD LIBOR to SOFR, it is important to note that other regions have initiated similar efforts to find replacements for LIBOR rates in other currencies.  ARRC considered several criteria in determining its recommended replacement, including the following: 1. Benchmark Quality 2. Methodological Quality 3. Accountability 4. Governance 5. Ease of Implementation  ARRC has published a “Paced Transition Plan” to facilitate and encourage the transition to SOFR SOFR: description and background Alternate rates from other regions TODAY 2012 July LIBOR manipulation exposed Calendar 2017 - June ARRC recommends SOFR as alternative to USD LIBOR 2018 - July ARRC unveils indicative SOFR term rate 2014 - November ARRC established to find alternative rate European Union ESTER - European Central Bank United Kingdom SONIA - Bank of England Switzerland SARON - SNB with SIX Swiss Exchange Japan TONAR - Bank of Japan 2019 Continue to build SOFR linked instruments 2019 – H1 Develop transition plan for move to SOFR and take action 2017 - July FCA plans to no longer compel submission of LIBOR past 2021 2021 – Q2 CCPs no longer accept new swap contracts for clearing with EFFR as PAI and discounting 2021 – EoY Create term-rate SOFR Complete transition to SOFR 2019 – EoY ISDA plans to amend definitions and offer a protocol
  • 5. CONFIDENTIAL © Sia PartnersCONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 5 LIBOR SOFR Unsecured rate (includes a built-in credit component) Secured / Unsecured Secured rate Seven maturities (from overnight up to 12 months) Maturity Overnight $500 million in daily underlying transactions for 3-mo. LIBOR Volume $800 billion in daily underlying transactions Mean of panel bank submission rates (excluding several higher and lower rates) Calculation Volume weighted median (for combined repo datasets) 11:55am (GMT) Publication Time 8:30am (EST) ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES  Several different tenors available  More consistency across regions using different variations of LIBOR  Reduced confidence due to manipulation scandals  As the rate is unsecured, additional risks are built- in to adjust accordingly Pros & Cons  Calculated based on actual data, making it less vulnerable to manipulation  Reflects fewer risks due to being secured, so rate is lower  Only one maturity, term rates have to be created  Adjustments are needed to make it more comparable to LIBOR Differences Between SOFR and LIBOR SOFR is intended to be a more reliable benchmark than LIBOR and while there are some clear advantages in transitioning to SOFR.  The differences between the two pose a challenge in administering the change. VS
  • 6. CONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 6 CEASE USE OF LIBOR Key Steps in Preparing for the Transition Systems and Processes Much of the details around how SOFR will work is still unclear, including whether adjustments will be needed and what are the other options if there is no forward term SOFR available. Systems and processes must be prepared for all possibilities as waiting for resolutions to all issues may not be an option. Identify LIBOR Exposure In order to be fully aware of the impact of such a transition, organizations must know their exposure to LIBOR connected instruments. The range and volume of this exposure will provide guidance for the planning and immediate next steps. Modify Legal Contracts Inventory of contracts referencing LIBOR need to be amended to incorporate fallback language in case of unavailability of LIBOR. ISDA will help facilitate some of the changes by proposing amendments but organizations will be responsible for implementing many of the changes. Determine Replacement Rate or Rates While it’s clear that SOFR is the designated replacement for USD LIBOR, the calculation of a forward looking term rate is still unclear. Much of this will be determined through industry consensus and ARRC recommendations which organizations must stay in tune with. LIBOR Transition Program The transition from LIBOR to SOFR will undoubtedly be a prolonged effort, making it critical to get a head start in not only planning, but also taking action where possible. Waiting for the uncertainties to be sorted out risks leaving the organization unprepared and incapable of making the switch within the timeframe communicated by regulators and industry organizations.  Setting up a governance structure to execute and monitor the transition should be a top priority.
  • 7. CONFIDENTIAL © Sia PartnersCONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 7 Identify Current LIBOR Exposure Sia Partners employs Data Analytics and Robotic Process Automation (RPA) technology to review documentation and identify link to LIBOR, essentially automating a key aspect of the identification process Sia Partners insights Identified risks  Newly issued instruments linked to LIBOR will increase the exposure and the scope of the transition  Manual processes are always more time-consuming and prone to errors such as omitting certain LIBOR-linked instruments in the identification process Stakeholders to involve  Business heads  Technology and systems  Legal and contract management Key actions and considerations # 1  Review product inventory to determine current exposure to LIBOR  The exposures identified helps narrow the contracts to be reviewed and amended # 2  Assess expiring contracts to determine those expiring before LIBOR cessation  Focus should be on contracts not expiring until after 2021 and any new LIBOR linked contracts issued # 3  Review contracts for any linkage to LIBOR  Automation can be leveraged to review and classify contracts, as well as for remediation # 4  Define plan for a gradual migration of all exposures  Migrating all instruments at the same time will not be feasible so a phased transition will be needed #5  Identify businesses, functions, systems and processes impacted  Early identification will ensure engagement from appropriate teams Actions Considerations Identifying the current exposure to USD LIBOR is the first step in planning for the transition
  • 8. CONFIDENTIAL © Sia PartnersCONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 8 Determine Alternate Replacement Rate or Rates Identified risks  Risk managers may be delayed in identifying impact of switch to LIBOR  Delays in finalizing the methodologies for adjustments and term SOFR calculation can result in a risk of reduced time to enact the changes Stakeholders to involve  Business leads  Risk managers Key questions and answers # 1  As SOFR is a secured rate lower than LIBOR, will a spread adjustment be needed to compensate?  ISDA is developing a Credit spread adjustment for derivatives and ARRC is doing so for cash products # 2  How will a forward looking SOFR term curve be developed?  The Fed has published a methodology paper and ARRC has also published an indicative SOFR term curve # 3  What alternatives are available if an IOSCO compliant term SOFR is not available by the end of 2021?  Alternatives being considered includes: a. SOFR compounded in advance b. SOFR compounded in arrears c. Simple daily SOFR in arrears SOFR Compounded in AdvanceOf the three alternative options, what would be the preferred second fallback rate option? 68%  16% selected up SOFR compounded in Arrears  16% selected Daily simple SOFR in Arrears SOFR is clearly the designated replacement for USD LIBOR, but many questions remain Questions Answers Source: Live poll of LSTA Operations Conference participants, April 9, 2019 (approximately 100 respondents) The decision on SOFR spread adjustments and forward looking term rate cannot be made in isolation. Industry consensus is critical, as is preparation for all possible outcomes Sia Partners insights
  • 9. CONFIDENTIAL © Sia PartnersCONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 9 Modify Impacted Contracts to Reflect New Rates Identified risks  Amending a large number of contracts once LIBOR ceases will not be practical  Fallbacks should be thoroughly vetted to prevent unintended consequences Stakeholders to involve  Legal  Compliance  Operations Key questions and answers # 1  What is fallback language?  Fallback language governs what rate a loan would revert to if LIBOR was no longer available # 2  What considerations need to be taken in determining the fallback language?  Fallbacks have to consider a trigger event, a replacement rate and adjustment # 3  What type of triggers can initiate the transition from LIBOR to SOFR?  Mandatory triggers: 2 ISDA triggers and 3 “pre-cessation” triggers have been proposed  Early Opt-in triggers: helps reduce LIBOR linked contracts prior to cessation # 4  Which contracts should be modified first?  It’s not practical to handle all amendments at once so best to prioritize where possible # 5  Will adopting more robust contract language lead regulators to treat the amended contracts as new trades?  This is currently being discussed in ARRC’s Regulatory Issues working group To amend existing contracts, clarity is needed on the new language to be used and the process for making changes Questions Answers Of estimated USD LIBOR contracts are maturing by 20211, leaving about 18% to be amended. This represents millions of documents across the industry and does not include newly issued contracts which do not mention an alternate rate. Source: Federal Reserve staff calculations, BIS, Bloomberg, CME, DTCC, Shared National Credit, and JPMorgan Chase. Data are gross notional exposures as of year-end 2016 Contract amendments should be phased to prioritize those with the highest combination of clarity of new language and volume Robotic Process Automation (RPA) technology can be used to scan documents and identify mentions of LIBOR and facilitate replacement Sia Partners insights 82%
  • 10. CONFIDENTIAL © Sia PartnersCONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 10 System and Process Changes to Handle Transition Identified risks  Delaying the initiation of system upgrades risks not having sufficient time to thoroughly vet and test the implemented solutions Stakeholders to involve  IT  Business leads Key questions and answers # 1  Where will SOFR be sourced from?  Possibility of making the rates available on Bloomberg and Reuters screens is being explored  Planning can be started on identifying systems that will need to source and disseminate the rate information # 2  What are vendor systems doing?  Systems like LoanIQ will undoubtedly accomodate for the new rates and being aware of these changes can help to plan for integration and ensure consistency # 3  What changes can be made to systems before the intricacies of SOFR are decided?  While there is no final decision on the spread and the term SOFR, it is clear that systems will need to handle add-ons to SOFR, possibly requiring additional fields within existing systems Enhancements to systems and processes can be time consuming, raising the urgency of getting a head start Questions Answers System enhancements can be initiated to account for all possible outcomes. New fields and ways to source data can be anticipated. Vendor system changes will require integration with internal systems Sia Partners insights
  • 11. CONFIDENTIAL © Sia PartnersCONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 11 Importance of Taking Action Now For firms who are not yet aware, not yet engaged, and without plans to address their LIBOR-related dependencies, I warn you again of the risks. Andrew Bailey - CEO of the Financial Conduct Authority The industry is struggling to move forward with the transition given the many uncertainties still needing clarification.  However, the benefits of taking action now and preparing for all possibilities will far outweigh the costs associated with losing valuable time waiting for outstanding issues to be resolved.  Despite the warnings, firms are struggling to mobilize their transition efforts.  Some firms may be relying on LIBOR to continue being published after 2021, while others may be taking a wait-and-see approach rather than taking a lead.  Both approaches carry with them risks, as transitioning all exposure simultaneously at a latter date will prove to be impossible. Industry unprepared for transition to SOFR 65% Somewhat Knowledgeable Not prepared How knowledgeable do you feel you are on the LIBOR transition? How prepared is your bank for the transition away from LIBOR? 62%  24% were not knowledgeable at all  11% were very knowledgeable  25% were somewhat prepared  12% didn’t know  1% were very prepared Source: Live poll of LSTA Operations Conference participants, April 9, 2019 (approximately 100 respondents)
  • 12. CONFIDENTIAL © Sia PartnersCONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 12 Conclusions and Key Takeaways 2. Stay Plugged-In 3. Gain the Advantage1. Mobilize the Organization One benefit of dealing with an industry- wide issue is that many aspects of the solution can also be developed at the broader level, reducing the risk of being an outlier in approach. In order to maintain consistency with the methodologies being utilized throughout the industry, it is critical to be aware of recommendations and other guidelines being published by organizations such as ARRCand ISDA. In addition to consuming the outputs of such groups, they also serve as a platform to raise any perceived issues. The transition from LIBOR to SOFRwill require prolonged engagement from many functions within the organization. Relevant stakeholders must be educated regarding the impacts of the change and be fully committed to seeing the transformation through. This endeavor can not be handled as a Business as Usual (BAU) matter, and will require appropriate project planning, resourcing, and decision-making in a timely fashion. The scope of the challenge that awaits demands that creative solutions are explored. Robotic Process Automation (RPA) will make the difference between being overwhelmed by the volume of documentation to be amended and having a relatively uneventful transition. Data analytics can provide a pivotal advantage in not only identifying the impacted contracts but also in facilitating the necessary changes.
  • 13. CONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 13 Sia Partners is a unique management consulting firm and a pioneer of consulting 4.0 $230M Revenue for FY18/19 OUR BUSINESS OUR TEAM OUR CLIENTS 1999 Creation date 23 Offices 65% Business Transformation 15% Strategy 15% IT & Digital Strategy 5% Data Science 35 Bots 41 Nationalities 40% Female 60% Male 70 Partners 20 Consultants on international mobility schemes 1K Assignments per year Key clients include 20% of Fortune 500 50 Surveys each year 92% Of returning clients 1,300 Consultants Clients worldwide 350
  • 14. CONFIDENTIAL © Sia PartnersCONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 14 Thought leadership and contribution to marketplace debate • Conferences, seminars and training • Sia Partners actively participates in marketplace discussions and debates, with experts speaking at numerous conferences and managing professional training sessions throughout the year. • Think tanks • Sia Partners is a member of several networks of corporate decision making bodies, as well as specialist associations promoting Green Deal business or Financial Services. Original research We actively publish thought leadership articles with commentary and analysis on strategic trends, as well as current topics impacting our clients. Our publications include market insights, opinion columns, benchmarks and strategic marketing studies. Press articles More than 100 press articles per year, opinion columns and strategic studies that are often featured in business oriented and mainstream TV and press publications; we also feed news agencies (AFP, Reuters) information on hot topics. Expert newsletters & studies from our competence centres Our practices regularly publish newsletters and research studies drawing on industry data, detailed desk research augmented by the additional insight of our sector experts. > More than 15 exclusive studies per year An active agenda of research and publication A strong contribution to marketplace debate Sia Partners Financial Services Blog: http://en.finance.sia-partners.com/
  • 15. CONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners 15 Our innovative ecosystem 15CONFIDENTIAL © Sia Partners RPA IoT Data Management Cybersecurity Blockchain DevOps Serverless PaaS Quantum Computing Volumetric Displays Voice Recognition/Virtual Assistants Taxonomy & Ontology Augmented/Virtual Reality Drones Conversational User Interfaces BIM Autonomous Vehicles Connected Home Startup investment arm E-commerce AI Startup trends Productivity Tools Collaborative Tools Design Thinking Lab MOOCs DataSets & DataLab Data Science Showroom APIs & Consulting Bots Digital Due Diligence Innovative Ecosystems Digital Trends Observatory Digital Assessment & Strategy Data Monetization Transformation Hub New ways of working POC to industrialization FOVE – Digital agency Learning Expeditions Students Contests | Hackathon Sia Ideas Open Source Thought Leadership
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