1) The document discusses different types of institutional systems and how they influence economic policies and transitions. It contrasts highly centralized vs decentralized systems.
2) Centralized systems persist even with poor economic outcomes due to concentration of political power, while decentralized systems see more bottom-up innovation but can be vulnerable to statist attacks.
3) Economic transitions under democracy are influenced by the relative strength of liberal vs anti-liberal forces, which are affected by factors like economic conditions, interest groups, ideological influences, and how reforms are linked to other values in society. Both crises and economic improvements can potentially strengthen either side.
Understanding Bureaucracy in Public AdministrationHAFIZUDIN YAHAYA
Basic noted for you to understand the concept and practice of bureaucracy in government administration. what is the factors that lead to failure of bureaucracy and how to enhance the better management in public policy.
Americanpoliticalsystemppt 110919181530-phpapp01Wayne Williams
How Federalism works to solve political problems in America. Public policy, collective dilemmas, types of government institutions, authoritarianism, oligarchies, one party states,
An excerpt from my Ph.D. dissertation on the concept of creative bureaucracy. Talk given in Vienna at the request of the Wirtschaftsuniversität's Public Policy research group.
Week 1 politics and power history fair start representation and political pro...Wayne Williams
First week of PowerPoint lecture notes for Politics and Power in America course. Examines what politics is, differences in democracies, contrasted with the meaning of a Constitutional Republic, such as that of the United States.
Understanding Bureaucracy in Public AdministrationHAFIZUDIN YAHAYA
Basic noted for you to understand the concept and practice of bureaucracy in government administration. what is the factors that lead to failure of bureaucracy and how to enhance the better management in public policy.
Americanpoliticalsystemppt 110919181530-phpapp01Wayne Williams
How Federalism works to solve political problems in America. Public policy, collective dilemmas, types of government institutions, authoritarianism, oligarchies, one party states,
An excerpt from my Ph.D. dissertation on the concept of creative bureaucracy. Talk given in Vienna at the request of the Wirtschaftsuniversität's Public Policy research group.
Week 1 politics and power history fair start representation and political pro...Wayne Williams
First week of PowerPoint lecture notes for Politics and Power in America course. Examines what politics is, differences in democracies, contrasted with the meaning of a Constitutional Republic, such as that of the United States.
Global business 4th edition mike peng solutions manualAlexandra3334
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Soraya Ghebleh - Selected Theories in International RelationsSoraya Ghebleh
This presentation describes some of the major theories in international relations and their subsets including liberalism, realism, constructivism, and critical issues theories.
Political and economic systems
are closely intertwined, as they influence and shape each other. The political system establishes the legal and regulatory framework that governs economic
activities, while the economic system, in turn, affects the distribution of wealth and power within a society. The relationship between these systems can vary
significantly across different countries and regions, reflecting the unique historical, cultural, and socio-political contexts.
Some common types of political and economic systems include:
Democracy and Capitalism: This system combines democratic political institutions, where citizens have political rights and participate in decision making, with a capitalist economic system characterized by private ownership of resources and free market competition.
Authoritarianism and State Capitalism: In this system, political power is concentrated in the hands of a few individuals or a single party, while the government exerts significant control over the economy, including state ownership of key industries and strategic economic planning.
Socialism: Socialism aims to create an egalitarian society by advocating for collective ownership and control of resources, with the state playing a prominent role in economic planning and redistribution of wealth.
Mass Incarceration Essay
Structure and Agency Essay
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My Family Structure
Lewis Structure
Liberal Democracy in America and Socialism in Vietnam Impact on Health Insura...LongHienLe
This article compares two political theories, namely liberal democracy, and socialism, on health insurance and services in America and Vietnam. More specifically, it dives deeper into the relationship between the different types of economy in each social formation and the quality of the health care system development as expressed in specific policies.
Konzervatívny inštitút M. R. Štefánika organizoval ďalšiu z cyklu prednášok CEQLS. Naším hosťom bol Daniel Klein, profesor ekonómie na George Mason University (USA), ktorý pri príležitosti 300-tého výročia narodenia Adama Smitha prednášal o jeho odkaze pre súčasnosť.
Kniha Konzervatívneho inštitútu M. R. Štefánika a Liberálního institutu Na obranu slobodného trhu (2007) pozostáva z trinástich prednášok renomovaných a vo svete uznávaných osobností, ktoré odzneli na pozvanie Konzervatívneho inštitútu v Bratislave a na pozvanie Liberálního institutu v Prahe. V knihe si možno prečítať napríklad príspevky nositeľa Nobelovej ceny za ekonómiu v roku 1986 Jamesa M. Buchanana, prezidenta ČR Václava Klausa a prezidenta Cato Institute Williama A. Niskanena.
Na pozvanie Konzervatívneho inštitútu M. R. Štefánika (KI) a Slovak Students for Liberty (SSFL) prišiel na Slovensko výnimočný hosť: renomovaný americký ekonóm a právny teoretik David Friedman a v Bratislave dňa 26. apríla 2022 prednášal v rámci cyklu CEQLS na tému Ekonómia, právo a sloboda. Viac na www.konzervativizmus.sk
Konzervatívny inštitút M. R. Štefánika organizoval v Bratislave dňa 20. apríla 2022 ďalšiu z cyklu prednášok Conservative Economic Quarterly Lecture Series /CEQLS/. Viac na www.konzervativizmus.sk
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdf
Leszek Balcerowicz: Good and Bad Transformation
1. Good and Bad Transformation
Leszek Balcerowicz
Warsaw School of Economics
Bratislava, June 2018
2. I. Institutions and Institutional Systems
Institutions are best conceived as variables– factors that take
various forms across countries and through time in a given
location. They are usually defined as rules which are not
purely internal but are observed because of some
mechanisms of external enforcement.
1
3. I. Institutions and Institutional Systems
• The level of implementation of the rules depends on their content.
The story of the Prohibition in the US has shown that even a heavy
involvement of the police power cannot stop certain behaviors -in this
case of production and consumption of alcohol. In addition,
Prohibition produced a wave of crime. This seems to be the case with
the contemporary “war on drugs”, too.
• Rules in the form of prohibitions may be unenforceable (unless under
terror), while rules that describe the individual liberties are
sometimes a sham and they are not taken seriously by their nominal
beneficiaries (socialism). Therefore, one should distinguish between
de jure and de facto institutions. The former are derived from what is
written, the latter from the observation of the enforcement
mechanisms.
2
4. I. Institutions and Institutional Systems
• Let me now move from institutions to a institutional system (regime).
I define it as a set of institutions that have such an internal cohesion
that they can lastingly co-exist regardless of their performance.
Obviously, depending on the system’s performance there will be
different use of force and intimidation with respect to its actual or
potential opponents.
• Institutional system should be conceived as consisting of rules and
the related organizations (networks), which in turn consist of
positions defined by some external and internal rules. In discussing
on the institutional regimes one can focus on the formal institutions
(including the state) or consider both formal and the informal ones.
3
5. I. Institutions and Institutional Systems
• An important empirical question is which institutions in various
spheres of social life, can lastingly co-exist, i.e. form an institutional
system, and what are the “cohesion forces” or functional
requirements (L.Balcerowicz, 1995 ) behind this capacity. For
example, the central planning which replaces the market coordination
requires massive, multilevel bureaucracy to distribute the commands
and inputs. The existence of such a bureaucracy is a functional
requirement of socialism. Central planning cannot co-exist with the
decentralized organizational structures. This is, in turn, an example of
an “institutional impossibility”. Socialism, i.e. a regime without private
ownership and markets cannot lastingly co-exist, with democracy
defined by an open and regular political competition as expressed by
regular free elections. This is an other impossibility theorem.
4
6. II. Institutional Systems and Policies
I define policies as actions of policymakers which:
• Result in the change in the institutions, e.g. political or economic
liberalization switching from the fixed rate to floating exchange rate
regime, a change in the electoral law. These policies are usually called
reforms; or
• Operate through other variables, e.g interest rates (monetary, policy),
budgetary allocations (fiscal policy), changes, of personnel.
• Various institutional systems give rise to different sets of possible
polices. The most important of institutional variables which
differentiates these sets is concentration of political power, inversely
related to the constrains on the executive and the level of the rule of
law.
5
7. II. Institutional Systems and Policies
• What policy is chosen from the set of policies allowed by a given
institutional system depends mostly on the personality factors and
on the country’s economic and political situation. The despotic
regimes allow the psychopaths to gain and keep power and to purse
the most destructive policies, which produce terrible economic crises
and sometimes genocide (e.g. Mao, Stalin, Pol Pot). Contrary to the
widespread anticapitalist propaganda the worse crises in the sense of
deep breakdowns in the economy occur under the socialist
dictatorship, and not – under the market economies (for more see:
Balcerowicz, 2015).
6
8. II. Institutional Systems and Policies
A radical change of the institutional system, especially in its key
dimension: the concentration of political power, affects, country’s
performance through two channels:
1. it changes individuals’ opportunity sets (the scope of freedom) and
their incentives,
2. it changes the risk of very bad policies and the resulting risks of
crises.
The first channel changes the speed of economic growth in periods
when country is growing (or gradually declining), the second – changes
the frequency and severity of the growth breakdowns. The change in
the long-term economic growth results from these two channels.
7
9. • The institutional dynamics, i.e. the extend and direction of the change in
countries’ institutions, depends on their initial institutional system. Let me
discuss this issue by contrasting a highly centralized and highly
decentralized regimes.
• In the former, with its heavy concentration of political power which rules
out both economic and civil liberties, the decisions regarding the
institutions are centralized, too. At the same time a highly centralized
regime with its ban on economic freedom, produces increasingly worse
economic results compared to the more liberal systems and over time. The
naïve question is why socialist systems persist and are not abolished by
those who suffer, i.e. by the masses. The simple answer to this naïve
question is that those who rule in such a bad regime are shielded from its
economic consequences and those who suffer are intimidated and – in the
worst cases – liquidated.
III. Different Institutional Systems have Different
Dynamics
8
10. • Bad economic performance of the socialist dictatorship is clearly not a
sufficient reason for its quick transition towards economically more
liberal. The link between the performance and the longevity of the
system is weak. However, the socialist regimes in the real life have
differed in their duration and the mode and extent of transformation.
The most important difference had occurred between China where
the change started in the late 1970. and the USSR and the former-
Soviet bloc where it began during 1989-92. The comparison of these
two cases is a fascinating subject for the comparative history and the
political economy of institutional change. I will return to this topic in a
while.
III. Different Institutional Systems have
Different Dynamics
9
11. • A highly decentralized systems allow massive bottom-up institutional
innovations in the way individual cooperate and interact: in contracts,
networks, business models and organizations. Also, economic
liberties and the related competition produce a constant stream of
technical innovation which, in turn, spur the institutional ones – see
how the Internet has transformed the ways people interact and
cooperate.
III. Different Institutional Systems have
Different Dynamics
10
12. • In contrast to the highly centralized system, the highly decentralized
one produces good economic and non-economic outcomes, and
allows a lot of individual freedoms. The naïve question in the case of
the former regimes was why they tend to persist despite their bad
economic performance, and I tried to explain why. The naïve question
in the case of the highly decentralized systems is: why don’t they
automatically persist thanks to their good performance in terms of
prosperity and individual freedoms, i.e. why are they often subjected
to various statists attacks, which if successful, worsen their aggravate
outcomes. In other words: what factors weaken the link between the
good performance of the highly decentralized systems and their
continued existence?
III. Different Institutional Systems have
Different Dynamics
11
13. IV. An Extended Typology of Institutional Systems
Democracy Civil Rights Rule of Law Economic freedom Fiscal stance
Examples of
countries
1. Socialism
(communism)
Non-D. Banned V. low None; Command Economy North Korea, Cuba
2. Quasi-socialism Non-D. Banned V. low
Dominance of SOE’s.
A little private sector
Belarus, Central Asia,
Venezuela
3. Free Market
Capitalism
Usually D. Extensive High Wide
Hongkong, Switzerland,
Ireland
4. Crony capitalism Usually non-D. Limited Low
Limited due to uneven
protection of property
rights
Russia, Kazakhstan
5. Overregulated
and/or fiscaly unstable
capitalism
D. or non-D. Rather high
Limited - due to
arbitrary
regulations
Limited due to
overregulation and/or
fiscal instability
Italy, France
Examples of available
measures
Political Rights
(Freedom
House)
Civill Liberties
Rule of law
(World Bank)
Economic Freedom Index
(Fraser Institute),
Spending/ GDP ratio
Range 1 - 7 1 - 7 0 - 100 0 - 100 0 - 100
14. • The future shape of the economic system can be conceived as it the
resultant of two opposing forces: 1. The liberal: those promoting
market reforms and defending them (if achieved) and 2. The anti-
liberal: those opposing these reforms and defend the existing statist
arrangements. Drawing on this analogy from physics we can say that
an economically inferior system would persist or even get worse if
anti-liberal forces prevail. Market reforms (but not always in a
necessary shape) would be launched when the balance changes to
the benefit of liberal forces. Of course, this is just a simple analytical
framework.
V. Economic Transitions Under a Liberal
Democracy
13
15. To move further one has to specify what determines the relative
strengthen of the liberal and anti-liberal forces over time and across
countries. I think that the main situational determinants are as follows:
1. The relative strength of various interest groups;
2. The relative strength of liberal and statist doctrines;
3. The economic situation;
4. The positive or negative linkages between market reforms and
some widely shared ideas in the society.
V. Economic Transitions Under a Liberal
Democracy
14
16. These variables interact in the short run. In the longer run some of
them influence the others. For example, an economic crisis, interpreted
by some influential intellectuals as a proof that free market capitalism
is fundamentally fragile and thus demands more state intervention, is
likely to strengthen the statist orientation n the society.
V. Economic Transitions Under a Liberal
Democracy
15
17. • Speaking about the interest groups one must stress Olson’s important
contribution. First, he has shown in his path-breaking book (1965) that is easier to
create the narrowly based pressure groups (distributional coalitions) than larger
ones, including the pro-reform ones. As result, the former accumulate over time
and increasingly harm the economic system and economic growth through
various regulatory or fiscal privileges – unless and until they are destroyed by
some special circumstances like wars. Olson’s examples were Japan and Germany
after II World War in contrast with Britain (1982). Olson’s theory has spurred a
substantial empirical research which – to some extent – supported his theory
(Horgos and Zimmermon, 2009).
• While Olson tended to explain much with little he never claimed that his theory
of accumulation and discontinuity in the life of anti-reform pressure groups under
democracy can explain all the variation in economic transitions under democracy.
Indeed, there are some other factors at play:
V. Economic Transitions Under a Liberal
Democracy
16
18. • First, there are some other forces than wars or revolutions that change the
composition and the relative strength of various interest groups. For
example, the Internet-based technical change tends to reduce the role of
trade unions.
• Second, Olson has focused on the pressure groups with financial
incentives. However, there are also ideological pressure groups (including
the radical ecologism) usually guided by the statist preferences and led by
the anti-liberal intellectuals. One cannot help but be amazed that the
economic freedom, so fundamental for economic prosperity and the
existence of democracy, is so attacked in the West.
• Third, there are other situational factors than the pressure groups that
influence the probability of liberal of statist transitions.
V. Economic Transitions Under a Liberal
Democracy
17
19. • The improving economic situation reduces the pressure for liberal reforms and
may facilitate the anti-liberal policies. Market reforms under improving economic
conditions are not ruled out but require a special leadership which is largely a
chance factor.
• Improving economic situation results from previous economic reforms or from
other factors including the external conditions. In the first case, the question
arises: Will the economic improvement be sufficiently strongly linked in the
people’s mind to the previous liberal reforms, thus protecting them or would the
anti liberal forces use the ensuing economic slack and reverse at the least some
of those reforms? One can generally say that the improved economic
performance due to market reforms is not a sufficient to protect them from the
reversal. There are various reasons for that: generational change, prevailing
statist interpretation of the economic crises by the gifted anti-liberal ideologies,
the use of emotional issues like inequality against free markets etc. Therefore,
the liberal reforms need protection by the liberal forces i.e. they have to win the
communication battle with the anti liberal ones.
V. Economic Transitions Under a Liberal
Democracy
18
20. • Economic improvement due to the non-policy factors (windfall
gains)is not only likely to block liberal reforms but also to spur the
statist ones. The reason for that is the factor of the contribution of
previous liberal reforms to the prosperity is absent. And the windfall
gains, e.g. discovery of couple natural resources or improved terms of
trade, mask the structural problems in the economy and strengthen
the voice of anti liberal groups relative to the liberal ones. The latter
have to be especially skillful in communication to neutralize the
harmful input of windfall gains upon the polices.
V. Economic Transitions Under a Liberal
Democracy
19
21. • Let me now turn to the opposite economic situation: that of the
economic crisis. It is usually thought that crisis favors economics
liberalization and (fiscal) reforms, as other options become much
worse in the eyes of the policy makers. Many examples confirm this
point: reforms in South East Asia after 1988, radical liberal transition
in Poland and the Baltic counties in 1989-91, reforms in Spain during
the recent global financial crisis.
• However, the link between the economic crisis and liberal reforms is
far from perfect, as there are two intervening factors: the prevailing
interpretation of the root causes of the crisis and the availability of
the windfall gains.
V. Economic Transitions Under a Liberal
Democracy
20
22. V. Economic Transitions Under a Liberal
Democracy
• If like in Poland and some other post-socialist countries in 1989-91, the
interpretation prevails that the crisis was due to the inherited statist
system, the liberal reforms are likely to be supported. If on the contrary
most people think that it was the market system or market reforms that
produced the crisis, statist transition is likely to follow, e.g. New Deal
Policies in the 1930 in the US. The prevailing interpretation of the root
causes of the crisis depends on the relative success of the liberal and the
anti-liberal intellectuals in the society. The communication battle about the
root causes of the crisis is, therefore, a battle about the future policies. The
result of this battle depends not only on the engagement and the
communication skills of the opposing forces but also on the situational
factors which influence public opinion.
21
23. V. Economic Transitions Under a Liberal
Democracy
• In general, it is bad for liberal reforms when bad (i.e. anti-reforms)
guys in politics have good luck, or when good (i.e. pro-reform) guys
have bad luck. It is good for the reforms when bad buys have a bad
luck or when good guys have good luck. What combination of
situational variables and personality factors appears in reality, is to a
large extent a chance factor which introduces an element of
unpredictability into the economic transitions under democracy.
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24. V. Economic Transitions Under a Liberal
Democracy
• The last situational factor I will discuss here are positive or negative linkages. The
positive or negative linkages exist in people’s minds because of the past situations
and because of the developments that accompany market reforms. By definition,
a positive linkage exists when market reforms can be linked to something highly
valued by many people. Negative linkages exist when market reforms can be
linked to developments regarded as negative by many people. Positive linkages
existed and could be strengthened in many countries of the former Soviet bloc,
especially in the CEE. The liberalization from the Soviet dominance was a highly
positive factor for most people in these countries, and market reforms could be
linked to this development as a part of a departure from the Soviet system. In
contrast, in Russia there were many people for whom the dissolution of the
Soviet Union had produced a disorientation and a loss of satisfaction they derived
from belonging to the superpower. These attitudes could be easily mobilized by
the nationalist and/or socialist politicians against market reforms (Gaidar, 2006).
This is what has happened under Putin in Russia.
• The strength of the national identity, a product of the past, has influenced the
power of the positive linkage. For example, it was stronger in Poland, Hungary,
the Czech and Slovak republics and in the Baltic countries than in Belarus. 23
25. V. Economic Transitions Under a Liberal
Democracy
• In sum, the situational variables are very important in explaining the
timing and direction of the economic transitions. However, the
personality factors are a necessary complement. On the one hand,
favorable circumstances may be wasted because of the lack of a
proper leader. On the other hand, despite less favorable conditions,
gifted and reform-minded leaders may launch economic reforms.
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26. VI. Bad Political Transitions after Free
Elections
• There have been many examples of such bad political transitions which
differ in how advanced they are. Some of them are already completed: the
political system (both formal and informal) has been changed to such an
extent that no opposition can – within its framework – replace this ruling
group. Elections usually continue to be organized, but they are a sham. This
group includes Russia under Putin, Belorussia under Lukashenka, Venezuela
under Maduro, Nicaragua under Ortega, probably Turkey under Erdogan.
According to Kornai (2016), Orban in Hungary has changed its political
system so much that opposition can’t win elections, either.
• In the case of completed bad transitions the return to democracy would
have to entail some splits in the ruling group because of personal conflicts,
catastrophic economic situation or growing civic or external pressure.
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27. VI. Bad Political Transitions after Free
Elections
• In some other countries, bad transitions are less advanced. Poland
since the elections in 2015 belongs to this group. There is also a
category of democratically reversed bad transitions, where a ruling
group with autocratic inclinations has lost elections (Macedonia in
2016 and Sri Lanka in 2015 fit this category).
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28. VI. Bad Political Transitions after Free
Elections
There are not many comparative studies of the recent bad political
transitions. What I can do here is to offer a few observations and to ask
some questions with the view to such an investigation.
To start with, one should distinguish two issues:
• How to explain the electoral victory of a group which tries to
perpetuate itself in power by reducing the level of political
competition?
• What is the dynamics of bad transition and its determinants?
27
29. VI. Bad Political Transitions after Free
Elections
• With respect to the first question one should avoid easy
generalizations, like massive shifts in societies towards populism and
nationalism. Behind each case of the start of a bad transition lies a
different combination of factors. For example, the victory of Law and
Justice (PiS) in Poland has happened under a very good economic
situation and mostly because of a very bad electoral campaign of the
incumbents. In Hungary the economic situation was worse than in
Poland and Orban was helped by the scandals that plagued his
competitors. Erdogan’s authoritarian offensive was made possible by
a failed coup against him. The start of a bad transition depends on
some chance factors, but can have lasting consequences. And this
brings me to the second issue.
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30. VI. Bad Political Transitions after Free
Elections
• The authoritarian rulers have three instruments at their disposal:
• Buying the support of some targeted groups by distributing money
and jobs (clientelism);
• Indoctrinating people by the captured media;
• Taking over the state apparatus (political police, prosecutors, tax
administration and – in the extreme cases – the courts) in order to
use it against opponents of the ruling group (intimidation).
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31. VI. Bad Political Transitions after Free
Elections
• The scope for clientelism depends on the economic situation. Improving
economic conditions help the rulers who push economic statism. Such
conditions also help those who implement bad political transitions. As in
every society many people assess the ruling politicians through the prism
of the current economic situation. The rulers with the authoritarian
inclinations are likely to use the improving economic situation as a guise to
mask the taking over of the state apparatus. This is what Putin was doing in
Russia when the prices of oil were high, the economic situation in Russia
was rapidly improving and he was genuinely popular. When the prices of oil
collapsed and economic situation deteriorated, he was already in control of
the apparatus of intimidation. The lesson is that it is the early phase of a
bad political transition which is crucial and during which the democratic
opposition should be especially vigilant regarding the developments in the
state apparatus.
30
32. VI. Bad Political Transitions after Free
Elections
• Finally, it is also striking that these transitions are not linked to
economic liberalizations, which would improve societies longer term
economic situation. The opposite is rather true. The authoritarian
rulers pursue - under the nationalistic or populist headings - a statist
agenda of increasing political control over the economy. This would
suggest that when the economy gets worse due to these policies, the
bad political transition will be under popular pressure, especially if
the civil society manages to block the attempts of the autocrats to
turn the state apparatus into a tool of repression. Preventing such a
development is a decisive determinant of the duration of a bad
political transition.
31