The document summarizes a lecture on social preferences in economic decision making. It introduces experimental games like the trust, ultimatum, and dictator games that show people's preferences go beyond narrow self-interest. It presents the inequity aversion model of Fehr and Schmidt which proposes that individuals care about fair distributions and dislike inequitable outcomes. The model is then applied to explain behaviors in trust and ultimatum games. Expected readings and additional materials on social preferences are also listed.
Aspiration, confidence, fear of failure and trust play a role in the B2B buying mindset. It sounds obvious, but avoidance of risk is a key component of business continuity and it’s easy to forget that B2B buyers are human beings, rather than rational decision-making robots. Brands need to invest time in understanding how their audience makes decisions if they are to influence them
Updated revision presentation on aspects of behavioural economics and topical issues where behavioural nudges are being used to change the choices of consumers and businesses.
Behavioural Economics content slideshow. Designed for the Economic A level qualification. Can be used in revision and in class.
Subtopics:
Alternative Views of Consumer Behaviour
Behavioural Biases
Nudges
Aspiration, confidence, fear of failure and trust play a role in the B2B buying mindset. It sounds obvious, but avoidance of risk is a key component of business continuity and it’s easy to forget that B2B buyers are human beings, rather than rational decision-making robots. Brands need to invest time in understanding how their audience makes decisions if they are to influence them
Updated revision presentation on aspects of behavioural economics and topical issues where behavioural nudges are being used to change the choices of consumers and businesses.
Behavioural Economics content slideshow. Designed for the Economic A level qualification. Can be used in revision and in class.
Subtopics:
Alternative Views of Consumer Behaviour
Behavioural Biases
Nudges
2016. 7. 27 Presentation (Co-presenter: Jia Li)
Research Method for Political Science III (Instructor: Yuki Yanai)
Graduate School of Law, Kobe University, Japan
Some characters in this slide are invisible. High-resolution slide is available on my homepage (http://www.jaysong.net).
This is a managerial economics presentation on "Game Theory: Prisoners Dilemma" , presented by myself Peerzada Basim. I am a Business student pursuing IMBA degree at University of Kashmir.
I hope this presentation will suffice your need and curiosity of knowing what Game Theory is.
Thank you.
Behavioral economics overview presentation at TGASKurt Nelson, PhD
The following was the presentation that I gave at the TGAS conference in Texas this spring. Highlighting some of the behavioral science principles that can be used to help improve your incentives and sales operations.
The Economics of Patience: The endogenous determination of time preferenceRussell James
This presentation reviews an economic model by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary Becker and Casey Mulligan incorporating the idea of imagination in time preference.
2016. 7. 27 Presentation (Co-presenter: Jia Li)
Research Method for Political Science III (Instructor: Yuki Yanai)
Graduate School of Law, Kobe University, Japan
Some characters in this slide are invisible. High-resolution slide is available on my homepage (http://www.jaysong.net).
This is a managerial economics presentation on "Game Theory: Prisoners Dilemma" , presented by myself Peerzada Basim. I am a Business student pursuing IMBA degree at University of Kashmir.
I hope this presentation will suffice your need and curiosity of knowing what Game Theory is.
Thank you.
Behavioral economics overview presentation at TGASKurt Nelson, PhD
The following was the presentation that I gave at the TGAS conference in Texas this spring. Highlighting some of the behavioral science principles that can be used to help improve your incentives and sales operations.
The Economics of Patience: The endogenous determination of time preferenceRussell James
This presentation reviews an economic model by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary Becker and Casey Mulligan incorporating the idea of imagination in time preference.
Programmation Open Bidouille Camp x84 du 26 mars 2016 - Courthézon, VaucluseAlan McCullagh
Vous trouverez ici le programme détaillé de notre événement Open Bidouille Camp x84 qui se tient à la Salle Polyvalente de Courthézon, Vaucluse (84), PACA, France - Samedi 26 Mars 2016 de 9h à 20h30
Documento do Ministério da Saúde, que referencia as práticas alimentares culturais dos brasileiros, alinhando-as a uma prática alimentar mais saudável.
As a professional, you know that success is a groups activity. Connectors understand that by helping others achieve, they never have to worry about their own success.
I provide a (very) brief introduction to game theory. I have developed these notes to
provide quick access to some of the basics of game theory; mainly as an aid for students
in courses in which I assumed familiarity with game theory but did not require it as a
prerequisite
Students should be able to:
Use simple game theory to illustrate the interdependence that exists in oligopolistic markets
Understanding the prisoners’ dilemma and a simple two firm/two outcome model. Students should analyse the advantages/disadvantages of being a first mover
Students will not be expected to have an understanding of the Nash Equilibrium
Lecture OverviewSolving the prisoner’s dilemmaInstrumental r.docxSHIVA101531
Lecture Overview
Solving the prisoner’s dilemma
Instrumental rationality
Morality & norms
Repeated games
Three ways to solve the prisoner’s dilemma
Sequential games
Backward induction
Subgame perfect Nash equilibrium
Common knowledge of rationality
Mixed strategies
Game theory: underlying assumptions
Remember:
Homo economicus: instrumental rationality and preferences
Common knowledge of rationality and consistent alignment of believes: given the same information individuals arrive at the same decisions
Individuals know the rules of the game which are exogenously given and independent of individuals’ choices
We will look at these one by one, analysing alternative assumptions.
We will use the prisoner’s dilemma as example.
Why?
Coordination game with conflict
Arguably it describes many social situations, e.g. the free rider problem:
Voting
Trade union affiliation
Wage cuts to increase profit
Domestic work
Prisoner’s dilemma
The homo economicus maximises his/her utility.
In a prisoner’s dilemma the dominant strategy is to confess (defect).
Fallacy of compositions: what is individually rational is neither Pareto optimal not socially rational.
But do people really defect?
Kant’s categorical imperative: not the outcome but the act is crucial (morality)
Altruism: blood donation
Social norms: forest people hunting in the Congo (Turnbull 1963)
Instrumental rationality
Gauthier: it is instrumentally rational to cooperate rather than to defect
Assume there are two sorts of maximisers in the economy: straight maximisers (SM) and constrained maximisers (CM); SMs defect, CMs cooperate with other CMs:
E(return from CM) = p*(-1)+(1-p)*(-3)
E(return from SM) = -3
For any p>0 the CM
strategy is better than
the SM one.
Instrumental rationality
Tit-for-tat
Unsurprisingly (maybe), in a repeated Prisoner’s dilemma the best strategy is not to defect but to adopt a tit-for-tat strategy.
In the 1980s, Robert Axelrod invited professional game theorists to enter strategies into a tournament of a repeated game (200 times).
The winning strategy was tit-for-tat entered by Anatol Rapaport:
Start off with cooperation
If opponent defects punish him/her by defecting
If opponent comes back to cooperation ‘forgive’ them and go back to cooperation
Overall, forgiving and cooperative strategies did better.
Repeated games & reputation
A tit-for-tat strategy can only be played in repeated games.
The folk theorem states that in an infinitely repeated game (or given uncertainty to the end of the game) any strategy with a feasible payoff can be an equilibrium.
This is important for social interaction: the prisoner’s dilemma can be overcome without (!) external authority.
Players enforce compliance (cooperate rather than defect) through punishment.
The loss of future returns deters players from defecting.
The surprising thing about Axelrod’s tournament was that the tit-for-tat strategy won in a finite (and defined) repeated game ...
Psychological determinants of human judgment & decision makingReading Room
Professor Peter Ayton is deputy dean of Social Science at City University London and one of the foremost leaders in the realms of decision theory which is very relevant to our experiences online and of course in wider communications. Peter talks about our judgements and how rational thought (or rather lack there of!) comes into play. Plus there is a little bit about how compromise effects which cheese burger we decide to order!
Solutions to Problem Set 2 The following note was very i.docxrafbolet0
Solution
s to Problem Set 2
The following note was very important for the solutions:
In all problems below a rational preference relation is understood as one that satisfies the axioms of
von Neumann and Morgenstern’s utility theory. When solving these problems involving the
expected utility theory use the von Neumann-Morgenstern theorem. In other words, you prove that
a preference relation is rational by showing utility values that satisfy corresponding conditions and
you prove that a preference relation is not rational by showing that no utility values can possibly
satisfy these conditions. SOLUTIONS THAT DON’T USE THIS METHOD WILL NOT BE
ACCEPTED !!!
Problem 1 (3p) Suppose you have asked your friend Peter if he prefers a sure payment of
$20 or a lottery in which he gets $15 with probability 0.5 and $10 with probability 0.5. Is it
rational for Peter to prefer the sure payment over the lottery? Is it rational to prefer the
lottery over the sure payment? Is it rational to be indifferent between the lottery and the sure
payment? Would your answer be any different had I asked you the same question but with
A substituted for $20, B for $15 and C for $10? What is the general lesson to learn from
this exercise?
SOLUTION: You can assign numbers to u($20), u($15) and u($10) in such a way that
u($20) will be larger than, or equal to, or smaller than 0.5u($15)+0.5u($10). This shows that
all three preferences are rational. If instead of $20, $15 and $10 you write A, B and C the
solution to this problem, which does not depend in any way on the specifics of the three
alternatives, should be obvious. A few general lessons here: (1) Expected utility theory,
just like preference theory, does not “impose any values” on your preferences. (2) Be
careful never to use assumptions that are not clearly stated. (3) If you are given a single
piece of information about decision maker’s preferences then no matter what this
information is it cannot be possibly irrational. Rationality is, in essence, a requirement of
consistency of preferences. If there is only one condition, what would it be possibly
inconsistent with?
Problem 2 (3p) George tells you that he prefers more money over less. George also tells
you about his preference between a lottery in which he gets $30 with probability 0.9 and 0
with probability 0.1 and a sure payment of $20. Assume that George is rational. Is it
possible for him to prefer the lottery over the sure payment? Is it possible to prefer the sure
payment over the lottery? Is it possible for him to be indifferent between the sure payment
and the lottery? What is the general lesson to learn from this exercise?
SOLUTION: Suppose you have assigned numbers to u($30), u($20) and u($0) in such a
way that u($30)>u($20)>u($0):
Can such numbers satisfy u($20) < 0.9u($30)+0.1u($0)? Yes, they can. For instance,
u($30)=1, u($20)=0.5 and u($0)=0. .
1. LECTURE 2
SOCIAL PREFERENCES
309ECN Dr. Alexandros Karakostas
“Economic decisions can only be taken as the result of
animal spirits – a spontaneous urge to action rather
than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted
average of quantitative benefits multiplied by
quantitative probabilities” (Keynes, 1973 [1936]: 150)
2. Intended Learning Outcomes
Appreciate some of the recent empirical evidence from
experimental economics on the failure of the narrow self
interest hypothesis (in some cases) to explain economic
behaviour.
Introduce the Trust, Ultimatum and Dictator games; see
what these games can tell us about economic decision
making and peoples preferences.
Introduce social preferences and the inequity aversion
model of Fehr and Schmidt (1999).
Apply the Fehr and Schmidt model to explain behaviour
in the Trust, Ultimatum and Dictator games
3. Last Week..
Last week Jon introduced how optimal incentive
contracts are derived.
participation constraint
i.e. the principal must pay the agent his
opportunity cost/ outside option.
Incentive compatibility constraint
i.e the principal need to monetarily incentivise the
agent to exert the effort level that is profit
maximising to himself.
That is where C(e)’=P(e)’
4. Incentives work…
Causal Evidence: Pole dancers, taxi drivers, hairdressers
etc..
Andrew et al. (1997): Farmers in Philippines if paid a
piece rate versus a fixed wage exert more calories (i.e.
effort).
Haley (2003) Tree cutters under piece rate increased
productivity by 50%.
5. The chronicles of a firefight..
In December 2001Boston’s fire
department terminates its policy
of unlimited paid sick days…
As a result the number of
firefighters who were ill on
Christmas and New Years Eve
increased tenfold.
The Fire Commissioner retaliated
by cancelling their holiday
bonuses.
Next year the firefighters claimed
13.431 sick days up from 6,432.
7. …But not always the way we predict!
More parents were late after a fine was introduced for
parents who arrive late to pick up their childern from a
kindergarden (Gneezy and Rustichini, 2000a).
When students were paid (little) for answering correctly
on an IQ test the scores decreased(Gneezy and
Rustichini, 2000b).
When students were paid for volunteering work effort
decreased (Gneezy and Rustichini, 2000b)
9. Trust Game
Think the following questions
What is the optimal incentive contract in the trust game?
When you where the proposer/owner why you decided to sent
the amount you sent?
How did you expect the responder/investor to behave?
Why? How did you respond as a responder?
If that was a repeated game how would that affect behaviour?
10. Round 1 Round 2
Investme
nt (I)
Return
(R)
Investment
(I)
Return
Results From the Game
12. The Trust Game (Berg et al. 1995)
The Trust game (Berg et al,
1995)
Experimental Design
64 subjects
One-shot game, double
blind
Endowment: $10
Results
Proposer:
Most send money
Responder:
Some return money,
increasing in amount sent
On average, proposers neither win or lose!
13. Assuming that both the Principal and the Agent are profit
maximisers, then backward induction suggests the
Principal should send nothing! (That is because the agent will
always return nothing.)
However, we know that people tend to try to trust each
other.
And some studies suggest that there is even a self
fulfilling prophecy of trust (Bacharach et al. 2007).
We could claim that the agent returned out of reciprocity
or altruism.
What about the proposer?
The Trust Game
14. Ultimatum Game (Guth et al. 1983)
Two players bargain (anonymously) to divide a fixed
amount between them.
P1 (proposer) offers a division of the “pie”
P2 (responder) decides whether to accept it
If accepted both players get their agreed upon shares
If rejected both players receive nothing.
15. Ultimatum Game (Guth et al. 1982)
Güth, Schmittberger, Schwarze (1983)
They did the first experimental study on this game.
The mean offer was 37% of the “pie”
Since then several other studies has been conducted to
examine this gap between experiment and theory (Camerer,
2003).
Almost all show that humans disregard the rational solution in
favor of some notion of fairness
The modal offer is 50%
The average offers are in the region of 40-50% of the pie
About half of the responders reject offers below 30%
17. Ultimatum game
When a proposer makes high offer it is either because:
A taste for fairness
Fear of rejection
Both
When a responder decides about an offer, he faces a
trade-off between:
The utility gained from the monetary payment (narrow
self interest)
Anger (self interest/ desire to express negative
reciprocity) and desire to punish (altruistic punishment).
18. The Drunken Ultimatum (Morewedge et al., 2013)
Drunkeness doesn’t fuzz up judgment so much as cause the
drinker to overly focus on the most prominent cue in his
environment (sounds familiar?).
Morewedge et al. (2013) visited some bars and asked
drunk people to play the ultimatum game
They found that:
Proposers offers were the same between drunk and sober
participants
Rejections where higher by drunk people
Suggesting that main motive behind behavior is self interest
in the sense that participants prominent cue is expressing
their anger rather than strategic or altruistic punishment.
19. Dictator Game (Forsythe et al., 1994)
P1 (dictator/proposer) offers a division of the “pie”
P2 (receiver/responder) is bound to accept it
The receiver has no bargaining power over the division
of the pie.
In this setup the dictator has no fear of his offer being
rejected
Any positive amount offered can only be explained out
of pure altruism (or demand effects but we are not going to look
at this in this course)
The mean offer is around 20% and the distribution of
offers is bimodal (Camerer, 2003)!
20. The Self-Interest Hypothesis
In economics we have been traditionally assuming that
individuals are narrow self interested.
That they only care about monetary payoffs and that
our preferences are independent of each other.
There are two key reasons behind this assumption:
Simplicity: which leads to clear predictions
In many cases strong predictive power (eg. auctions!)
In recent years experimental economists have shown
that the narrow self interest assumption in many cases
fails to predict behaviour and as a result the literature
in social preferences have been developed.
21. Social Preferences
Social Preferences relax the self-interest hypothesis and
allow for interdependent preferences.
As a result models of social preferences often account
that an individual’s utility function depends on the utility
of others.
Examples
Altruism, Spite
Reciprocity
Fairness
Beliefs, Intentions
22. Types of Social Preferences
Distributive Preferences: Preferences over the final
distribution, eg. Equity, efficiency, altruism; related to
consequences or outcomes
Reciprocal Preferences: Desire to reward or punish other
beyond mere consequences, e.g., being “more than fair”
to someone who has been fair to you; related to
intentions or types of agents
23. Models of Social Preferences
Among the most well known models on Social Preferences
1. Inequality Aversion (Fehr and Schmidt 1999; Bolton and
Ockenfels, 2000)
2. Intention based reciprocity (Rabin, 1993; Dufwenberg and
Kirchsteiger, 1998)
3. Hybrid models (Falk and Fischbacher, 1999; Charness and
Rabin, 2002)
We will focus on the most popular and simplest of these
models i.e. Inequality aversion model of Fehr and Schmidt,
1999.
25. Inequality Aversion (Fehr and Schmidt, 1999)
Say you have two players: Alex (A) and Jon (J) with payoffs πΑ
and πJ respectively
Jon is narrow self interested. He only cares about his own
material payoff. Hence his utility function is given by:
Alex is inequity averse, he cares about his own material payoff,
but he also cares about not earning less than Jon, he also claims
that he cares a little bit for Jon and he would be less happy if he
earned more than Jon. Hence his utility function is given by:
26. I am clearly more complicated. Let me explain
I care about earnings the same way Jon does πΑ.
But I also care about disadvantageous inequality:
– αA max (πJ –πΑ,0) (i.e. If Jon earns more than me it makes me
unhappy)
But I also care about advantageous inequality:
– βA max (πΑ –πJ,0) (i.e. If Jon earns less than me it also makes me
unhappy)
– αA stands for how much I care about disadvantageous inequality
– βA and how much I care about disadvantageous inequality
The model assumes that αA > βA and 0≤ βA ≤1
27. Inequality Aversion (continued)
UA(π)= πΑ – αA max (πJ –πΑ,0) – βA max (πΑ –πJ,0)
You can also write the equation the following way:
If πΑ = πJ Then, UA(π)= πΑ
If πΑ < πJ Then, UA(π)= πΑ – αA (πJ –πΑ)
If πΑ > πJ Then, UA(π)= πΑ – βA max (πΑ –πJ,0)
29. All else given, i prefer j’s income to equal his; i’s utility declines in
their income difference, more so if i himself is worst off.
i’s utility as a
function of j’s
income, for a
given xi
Note xi xj stands for 𝜋 𝐴, 𝜋𝐽 respectively
UA(π)= πΑ – αA max (πJ –πΑ,0) – βA max (πΑ –πJ,0)
30. Back to the Trust Game
0.5 1
send return πA πP β α Uagent
10 0 40 0 20 20
10 5 35 5 15 20
10 15 25 15 10 15
10 20 20 20 0 0 20
10 25 15 25 10 15
10 30 10 30 20 10
Lets assume that the Proposer decides to send 10 what
would be the optimal response for an inequity averse
agent?
31. Intended Learning Outcomes
Appreciate some of the recent empirical evidence from
experimental economics on the failure of the narrow self
interest hypothesis (in some cases) to explain economic
behaviour.
Introduce the Trust, Ultimatum and Dictator games; see
what these games can tell us about economic decision
making and peoples preferences.
Introduce social preferences and the inequity aversion
model of Fehr and Schmidt (1999).
Apply the Fehr and Schmidt model to explain behaviour
in the Trust, Ultimatum and Dictator games
32. Expected reading
Berg, Joyce, John Dickhaut, and Kevin McCabe. "Trust, reciprocity, and
social history." Games and Economic Behavior 10.1 (1995): 122-142.
Falk, A., Kosfeld, M., 2006. The Hidden Costs of Control. American
Economic Review 96, 1611-1630.
Fehr, E., Falk, A., 2002. Psychological Foundations of Incentives,
European Economic Review 46, 687-724
Fehr, Ernst, and Klaus M. Schmidt. "A theory of fairness, competition,
and cooperation." The quarterly journal of economics 114.3 (1999):
817-868.
Forsythe, R., Horowitz, J. L., Savin, N. E., & Sefton, M. (1994). Fairness
in simple bargaining experiments. Games and Economic behavior, 6(3),
347-369.
33. Expected reading
Gneezy, U., Rustichini, A., 2000a. A Fine is a price. Journal of Legal
Studies 29, 1–17.
Gneezy, U., Rustichini, A., 2000b. Pay enough or don’t pay at all.
Quarterly Journal of Economics 115 (2), 791–810.
Güth, W., Schmittberger, R., & Schwarze, B. (1982). An experimental
analysis of ultimatum bargaining. Journal of Economic Behavior &
Organization, 3(4), 367-388.
Fehr, Ernst, Georg Kirchsteiger, and Arno Riedl. "Gift exchange and
reciprocity in competitive experimental markets." European Economic
Review 42.1 (1998): 1-34.
34. Recommended Reading
Fehr, E., Kirchler, E., Weichbold, A., & Gächter, S. (1998). When social
norms overpower competition: Gift exchange in experimental labor
markets. Journal of Labor economics, 16(2), 324-351.
Fehr, E., & List, J. A. (2004). The hidden costs and returns of incentives—
trust and trustworthiness among CEOs. Journal of the European Economic
Association, 2(5), 743-771.
Gneezy, U. (2003). The W effect of incentives. University of Chicago
Graduate School of Business.
Hossain, T., and List, J.A. (2009) The behavioralist visits the factory:
Increasing productivity using simple framing manipulations, NBER working
paper 15623
Morewedge, C. K., Krishnamurti, T., & Ariely, D. (2013). Focused on
Fairness: Alcohol Intoxication Increases the Costly Rejection of Inequitable
Rewards. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology.
Slonim, R., & Roth, A. E. (1998). Learning in high stakes ultimatum games:
An experiment in the Slovak Republic. Econometrica, 569-596.
35. Additional Material
Bacharach, Michael, Gerardo Guerra, and Daniel John Zizzo. "The
self-fulfilling property of trust: An experimental study." Theory and
Decision 63.4 (2007): 349-388.
Camerer, Colin. Behavioral game theory: Experiments in strategic
interaction. Princeton University Press, 2003.
Fehr, E., & Schmidt, K. (2001). Theories of fairness and reciprocity-
evidence and economic applications.
Roth, A. E., & Kagel, J. H. (1995). The handbook of experimental
economics(Vol. 1). Princeton: Princeton university press.