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#SGStartups
Lean	
  Startups	
  in	
  the	
  Real	
  World	
  




              Hugo	
  Stevens	
  
             Startup	
  Factory	
  
The	
  Applica;on	
  
How	
  it	
  started	
  

Personalized	
  urban	
  
alert	
  system	
  

Personalized	
  intelligent	
  
alert	
  system	
  for	
  urban	
  
areas,	
  based	
  on	
  mobile	
  
devices	
  to	
  aggregate	
  
aBen;on	
  from	
  a	
  large	
  
number	
  of	
  poten;al	
  
users.	
  

	
  
First	
  version	
  
Current	
  App	
  
User	
  growth	
  
Growth	
  in	
  Pageviews	
  
How	
  to	
  get	
  there:	
  Reference	
  Models	
  
Keep	
  it	
  Simple:	
  Key	
  ques;ons	
  in	
  the	
  real	
  world	
  
  •  Market:	
  
  –  Who	
  is	
  the	
  customer?	
  What’s	
  their	
  pain?	
  How	
  much	
  would	
  they	
  pay?	
  

  •  Solu6on:	
  
  –  What	
  features	
  to	
  build?	
  Are	
  features	
  feasible	
  to	
  build/offer?	
  

  •  Go-­‐to-­‐market:	
  
  –  Which	
  Channels?	
  What’s	
  the	
  cost	
  per	
  channel?	
  Scalable?	
  

  •  Business	
  Model:	
  
  –  Sources	
  of	
  revenue?	
  Costs?	
  Plan	
  vs.	
  Real?	
  Profitable?	
  
The	
  Process:	
  Find	
  the	
  right	
  combina;on	
  
Tools	
  
•  Customer	
  interviews	
  
–  Problem	
  interview	
  
–  Solu;on	
  interview	
  

•  Product	
  Prototyping	
  
–  Open	
  source	
  plaQorms	
  (Wordpress,	
  etc.)	
  
–  Amazon	
  Web	
  Services,	
  web	
  providers	
  (SMS)	
  

•  Metrics	
  &	
  Analy6cs	
  
–  Google	
  Analy;cs	
  
–  Offline	
  sta;s;cs	
  

•  Financial	
  modeling	
  
–  Predicted	
  model	
  @	
  Excel	
  
–  Updates	
  based	
  on	
  real	
  metrics	
  
The	
  process:	
  Step	
  by	
  Step	
  
Build	
  +	
  Measure	
  +	
  Learn	
  
1.  Unbounce	
  +	
  Google	
  AdWords	
  
2.  Keynotopia	
  
3.  Weebly	
  +	
  dummy	
  content	
  +	
  basic	
  Google	
  Analy;cs	
  
4.  Wordpress	
  +	
  themes	
  +	
  real	
  content	
  +	
  conversions	
  @	
  Google	
  
    Analy;cs	
  
5.  AdWords	
  +	
  FB	
  ads	
  +	
  LinkedIn	
  Ads	
  +	
  social	
  distribu;on	
  
6.  Version	
  1.0	
  +	
  advanced	
  Google	
  Analy;cs	
  
7.  Version	
  2.0	
  +	
  usage	
  metrics	
  (mix	
  panel)	
  
Key:	
  The	
  Not	
  To	
  Do	
  List	
  
Don’t:	
  
1.  Speak	
  to	
  the	
  press	
  on	
  day	
  one	
  
2.  Build	
  a	
  complete	
  product	
  from	
  the	
  ground	
  up	
  
3.  Think	
  about	
  your	
  idea	
  for	
  6	
  months	
  
4.  Build	
  an	
  architecture	
  for	
  1,000,000,000	
  users	
  
5.  Try	
  to	
  change	
  users’	
  behavior	
  
6.  Add	
  1,000	
  features	
  
7.  Start	
  with	
  a	
  big	
  team	
  
The	
  Process:	
  how	
  to	
  know	
  if	
  you’re	
  right?	
  



                                              AARRR	
  
                                              1.  Acquisi;on	
  
                                              2.  Ac;va;on	
  
                                              3.  Reten;on	
  
                                              4.  Referral	
  
                                              5.  Revenue	
  
Which	
  metrics	
  go	
  where?	
  (and	
  in	
  what	
  order)	
  
 Metrics	
  vs.	
  element	
  to	
  validate	
  
 1.  Market	
  metrics:	
  Acquisi;on	
  &	
  Ac;va;on	
  
     •  Search	
  volume,	
  CTR	
  
 2.  Product	
  metrics:	
  Ac;va;on	
  &	
  Reten;on	
  
     •  Conversion	
  %,	
  A/B	
  tests	
  for	
  features,	
  reten;on	
  	
  	
  
 3.  Distribu;on	
  metrics:	
  Acquisi;on	
  &	
  Referrals	
  
     •  Cost	
  per	
  channel,	
  volume	
  per	
  channel,	
  viral	
  coefficient	
  
 4.  Business	
  Model	
  metrics:	
  Revenue	
  +	
  all	
  others	
  
     •  Revenue	
  per	
  user,	
  LTV	
  

 Metrics	
  per	
  unit	
  (i.e.	
  %’s)!	
  (vs.	
  vanity	
  metrics)	
  
Real	
  World	
  Metrics	
  
•  Key	
  metrics:	
  
–  Users	
  looking	
  for	
  traffic	
  informa;on	
  (market	
  pain):	
  
    –  CTR:	
  15%	
  for	
  main	
  keywords,	
  3%	
  overall	
  
    –  Interviews	
  with	
  customers	
  confirming	
  need	
  for	
  personalized	
  alerts	
  
Real	
  World	
  Metrics	
  
•  Key	
  metrics:	
  
–  Users	
  finding	
  the	
  product	
  interes;ng	
  (product	
  features):	
  
    –  Conversion:	
  12%	
  overall	
  (80%	
  complete	
  registra;on	
  process)	
  
    –  Started	
  lower;	
  ini;ally	
  about	
  50%	
  dropped	
  during	
  registra;on	
  
       process.	
  Improved	
  design,	
  overhauled	
  registra;on	
  process	
  
    –  Customer	
  Acquisi;on	
  Cost:	
  made	
  adjustments	
  that	
  cut	
  it	
  in	
  half	
  
    –  Aner	
  registra;on,	
  between	
  40%-­‐50%	
  of	
  users	
  clicked	
  on	
  links	
  for	
  
       smartphone	
  versions	
  of	
  the	
  applica;on	
  (1.	
  BB	
  2.	
  iPhone	
  3.	
  Android)	
  
    –  Distribu;on	
  of	
  mobile	
  apps	
  at	
  Appstores	
  doubled	
  user	
  base	
  in	
  4	
  
       weeks	
  –	
  without	
  promo;onal	
  ac;vi;es	
  
Real	
  World	
  Metrics	
  
•  Other	
  hypotheses:	
  
–  Imperfect/incomplete	
  product	
  s;ll	
  beBer	
  than	
  alterna;ves	
  
–  Sharing	
  FB/personal	
  info	
  is	
  ok	
  for	
  users	
  (also	
  faster/simpler)	
  
–  Simplicity	
  in	
  interface	
  is	
  key	
  (vs.	
  compe;;on)	
  
–  Confirm	
  CTR	
  @	
  different	
  mediums	
  (cell	
  phones	
  vs.	
  smartphones,	
  display	
  
   ads	
  vs.	
  clickable	
  ads,	
  personalized	
  coupons,	
  etc.)	
  
–  Confirm	
  CPC	
  and	
  who	
  pays	
  (agencies	
  vs.	
  marke;ng	
  departments)	
  
Lessons	
  Learned	
  
Lessons	
  &	
  recommenda6ons	
  
1.  Pick	
  a	
  large	
  poten;al	
  market	
  to	
  begin	
  with	
  
2.  Focus	
  on	
  what	
  users	
  are	
  already	
  trying	
  to	
  do	
  
3.  At	
  the	
  beginning,	
  it’s	
  Pass/Fail,	
  not	
  A/B	
  
4.  Mobile	
  first	
  (and	
  it’s	
  very	
  different	
  from	
  desktop)	
  
5.  Don’t	
  push	
  features	
  –	
  test	
  your	
  roadmap	
  
6.  Do	
  quick	
  experiments	
  –	
  start	
  with	
  the	
  expected	
  results	
  
7.  It’s	
  not	
  about	
  money	
  -­‐	
  tes;ng	
  a	
  whole	
  concept	
  can	
  cost	
  as	
  liBle	
  as	
  
     $500	
  USD	
  
8.  Almost	
  anything	
  can	
  be	
  tested:	
  physical	
  products,	
  physical	
  
     distribu;on,	
  etc.	
  
9.  Distribu;on	
  is	
  king	
  –	
  consider	
  all	
  channels	
  (online	
  &	
  offline)	
  and	
  
     mul;ple	
  plaQorms	
  
10.  React	
  quickly	
  –	
  the	
  market	
  doesn’t	
  wait	
  
Summary	
  of	
  results	
  
Key	
  numbers:	
  
1.  User	
  growth:	
  ~3.5X	
  	
  
2.  Pageviews	
  growth:	
  ~10X	
  
3.  Pages/vist	
  growth:	
  ~2.5x	
  
4.  User	
  acquisi;on	
  reduc;on:	
  ~10X	
  	
  
Next	
  Steps	
  
       To	
  infinity	
  and	
  beyond	
  (but	
  only	
  the	
  paranoid	
  survive)	
  
	
  
Tools	
  
Learn	
  to	
  use	
  all	
  of	
  these:	
  
1.  In-­‐person	
  interviews	
  
2.  Unbounce	
  
3.  Wordpress	
  +	
  themes	
  
4.  Google	
  Analy;cs	
  
5.  AdWords/FB	
  ads/AdMob/LinkedIn	
  ads	
  
6.  Social	
  media	
  tools	
  
7.  Keynotopia	
  
8.  Paypal	
  
9.  MixPanel	
  
10.  Lean	
  Launch	
  Lab	
  
11.  Phone	
  calls	
  
12.  Stands	
  @	
  physical	
  stores/flyers/etc	
  
Contact	
  



      Hugo	
  Stevens	
  
www.StartupFactory.com.mx	
  
      Disruptors.mx	
  
     @hugostevens	
  

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Lean startups en el mundo real ejemplos y metricas

  • 2. Lean  Startups  in  the  Real  World   Hugo  Stevens   Startup  Factory  
  • 4. How  it  started   Personalized  urban   alert  system   Personalized  intelligent   alert  system  for  urban   areas,  based  on  mobile   devices  to  aggregate   aBen;on  from  a  large   number  of  poten;al   users.    
  • 9. How  to  get  there:  Reference  Models  
  • 10. Keep  it  Simple:  Key  ques;ons  in  the  real  world   •  Market:   –  Who  is  the  customer?  What’s  their  pain?  How  much  would  they  pay?   •  Solu6on:   –  What  features  to  build?  Are  features  feasible  to  build/offer?   •  Go-­‐to-­‐market:   –  Which  Channels?  What’s  the  cost  per  channel?  Scalable?   •  Business  Model:   –  Sources  of  revenue?  Costs?  Plan  vs.  Real?  Profitable?  
  • 11. The  Process:  Find  the  right  combina;on  
  • 12. Tools   •  Customer  interviews   –  Problem  interview   –  Solu;on  interview   •  Product  Prototyping   –  Open  source  plaQorms  (Wordpress,  etc.)   –  Amazon  Web  Services,  web  providers  (SMS)   •  Metrics  &  Analy6cs   –  Google  Analy;cs   –  Offline  sta;s;cs   •  Financial  modeling   –  Predicted  model  @  Excel   –  Updates  based  on  real  metrics  
  • 13. The  process:  Step  by  Step   Build  +  Measure  +  Learn   1.  Unbounce  +  Google  AdWords   2.  Keynotopia   3.  Weebly  +  dummy  content  +  basic  Google  Analy;cs   4.  Wordpress  +  themes  +  real  content  +  conversions  @  Google   Analy;cs   5.  AdWords  +  FB  ads  +  LinkedIn  Ads  +  social  distribu;on   6.  Version  1.0  +  advanced  Google  Analy;cs   7.  Version  2.0  +  usage  metrics  (mix  panel)  
  • 14. Key:  The  Not  To  Do  List   Don’t:   1.  Speak  to  the  press  on  day  one   2.  Build  a  complete  product  from  the  ground  up   3.  Think  about  your  idea  for  6  months   4.  Build  an  architecture  for  1,000,000,000  users   5.  Try  to  change  users’  behavior   6.  Add  1,000  features   7.  Start  with  a  big  team  
  • 15. The  Process:  how  to  know  if  you’re  right?   AARRR   1.  Acquisi;on   2.  Ac;va;on   3.  Reten;on   4.  Referral   5.  Revenue  
  • 16. Which  metrics  go  where?  (and  in  what  order)   Metrics  vs.  element  to  validate   1.  Market  metrics:  Acquisi;on  &  Ac;va;on   •  Search  volume,  CTR   2.  Product  metrics:  Ac;va;on  &  Reten;on   •  Conversion  %,  A/B  tests  for  features,  reten;on       3.  Distribu;on  metrics:  Acquisi;on  &  Referrals   •  Cost  per  channel,  volume  per  channel,  viral  coefficient   4.  Business  Model  metrics:  Revenue  +  all  others   •  Revenue  per  user,  LTV   Metrics  per  unit  (i.e.  %’s)!  (vs.  vanity  metrics)  
  • 17. Real  World  Metrics   •  Key  metrics:   –  Users  looking  for  traffic  informa;on  (market  pain):   –  CTR:  15%  for  main  keywords,  3%  overall   –  Interviews  with  customers  confirming  need  for  personalized  alerts  
  • 18. Real  World  Metrics   •  Key  metrics:   –  Users  finding  the  product  interes;ng  (product  features):   –  Conversion:  12%  overall  (80%  complete  registra;on  process)   –  Started  lower;  ini;ally  about  50%  dropped  during  registra;on   process.  Improved  design,  overhauled  registra;on  process   –  Customer  Acquisi;on  Cost:  made  adjustments  that  cut  it  in  half   –  Aner  registra;on,  between  40%-­‐50%  of  users  clicked  on  links  for   smartphone  versions  of  the  applica;on  (1.  BB  2.  iPhone  3.  Android)   –  Distribu;on  of  mobile  apps  at  Appstores  doubled  user  base  in  4   weeks  –  without  promo;onal  ac;vi;es  
  • 19. Real  World  Metrics   •  Other  hypotheses:   –  Imperfect/incomplete  product  s;ll  beBer  than  alterna;ves   –  Sharing  FB/personal  info  is  ok  for  users  (also  faster/simpler)   –  Simplicity  in  interface  is  key  (vs.  compe;;on)   –  Confirm  CTR  @  different  mediums  (cell  phones  vs.  smartphones,  display   ads  vs.  clickable  ads,  personalized  coupons,  etc.)   –  Confirm  CPC  and  who  pays  (agencies  vs.  marke;ng  departments)  
  • 20. Lessons  Learned   Lessons  &  recommenda6ons   1.  Pick  a  large  poten;al  market  to  begin  with   2.  Focus  on  what  users  are  already  trying  to  do   3.  At  the  beginning,  it’s  Pass/Fail,  not  A/B   4.  Mobile  first  (and  it’s  very  different  from  desktop)   5.  Don’t  push  features  –  test  your  roadmap   6.  Do  quick  experiments  –  start  with  the  expected  results   7.  It’s  not  about  money  -­‐  tes;ng  a  whole  concept  can  cost  as  liBle  as   $500  USD   8.  Almost  anything  can  be  tested:  physical  products,  physical   distribu;on,  etc.   9.  Distribu;on  is  king  –  consider  all  channels  (online  &  offline)  and   mul;ple  plaQorms   10.  React  quickly  –  the  market  doesn’t  wait  
  • 21. Summary  of  results   Key  numbers:   1.  User  growth:  ~3.5X     2.  Pageviews  growth:  ~10X   3.  Pages/vist  growth:  ~2.5x   4.  User  acquisi;on  reduc;on:  ~10X    
  • 22. Next  Steps   To  infinity  and  beyond  (but  only  the  paranoid  survive)    
  • 23. Tools   Learn  to  use  all  of  these:   1.  In-­‐person  interviews   2.  Unbounce   3.  Wordpress  +  themes   4.  Google  Analy;cs   5.  AdWords/FB  ads/AdMob/LinkedIn  ads   6.  Social  media  tools   7.  Keynotopia   8.  Paypal   9.  MixPanel   10.  Lean  Launch  Lab   11.  Phone  calls   12.  Stands  @  physical  stores/flyers/etc  
  • 24. Contact   Hugo  Stevens   www.StartupFactory.com.mx   Disruptors.mx   @hugostevens