Canadian Real GDP Report and U.S.–Canada Trade Talks
Canadian real GDP advanced by 2.9% (q/q annualized) in 2018Q2 after increasing at a softer pace the previous
three quarters (see chart below).
The document provides information about the next six months from the perspective of a financial advisor. It discusses the turbulent past six months due to the COVID-19 pandemic and hopes the next six months will be better. It then analyzes the impact past US presidents have had on markets and the economy during their terms, noting both positive and negative impacts. It concludes that a Biden or Trump presidency will likely have a mixed impact, and that investors should stay the course and focus on long-term investing rather than trying to time markets based on who is president.
Gannett reported second quarter earnings of $1.20 per share, a 6% increase over the prior year. Newspaper advertising revenues rose 3% domestically and Newsquest revenues were up 3% in pounds in the UK. Television revenues increased 1% despite lower political spending. Cash costs rose over 6% including acquisitions, but on a pro forma basis excluding acquisitions costs rose around 3% reflecting commercial printing growth and currency impacts. July advertising trends were mixed with television pacings slightly below prior year when adjusting for large political spending last year. Near-term outlook remained cautious due to economic uncertainty.
This document provides a weekly market summary for the week ending February 22, 2019. It summarizes the performance of major US indexes such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite, which posted modest gains for the week. It also provides the latest data on economic indicators such as new orders for durable goods, existing home sales, unemployment claims, and upcoming key economic reports.
This presentation will discuss the deficit projections for the Government of Canada from 2016-2021.
The focus will be on consumer spending, merchandise trade, infrastructure and government spending. The presentation will highlight election promises as well as what is happening both with Canadian and World economies.
The NIFTY 50 Index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark expansive based securities exchange index for the Indian value showcase. In Nifty50 Cash Services Trade Nivesh provide you Nifty Intraday Trading Tips with High Profit Levels.
Olivier Desbarres: UK economy post referendum – for richer, but mostly for po...Olivier Desbarres
We may well never know the true extent of the impact of the EU referendum outcome on the British economy, markets and ultimately standards of living. This may not be the most satisfying conclusion, but this uncertainty is one which policy-makers will have to grapple with.
As to the bigger question of whether the UK is better off today or will be better off in years to come when one takes into account not only the impact on the economy but also broader, less tangible issues such as sovereignty, the answer is and will likely remain even more subjective.
In any case, available data paint a patchy picture of the UK economy post-referendum. Construction and services have been harder hit than manufacturing. Retail sales were strong in July thanks in part to a robust labour market and plentiful lending. While this defies the collapse in consumer confidence temporary factors may also have been at play.
The residential property market at a national level has been softer but resilient post referendum. Mortgage lending remains depressed but government policies are for now more likely to blame. The commercial property market has been harder hit.
Sterling’s 10% collapse since the referendum, following a 10% depreciation between November and June, is seemingly supporting economic growth and demand for UK assets even if history suggests that it is no panacea. Its inflationary impact has so far been very modest but the risk is a squeeze on profit margins and real wages.
At the same time sterling’s collapse has tangibly eroded the UK’s net wealth, at least when expressed in foreign-currency terms – a fact largely ignored by policy-makers and the media.
I would expect the BoE to continue favouring monetary and credit policies which explicitly help spur lending, spending and investment and, implicitly at least, help cap sterling. While this may not translate into another policy rate cut or round of QE near-term, the BoE is likely to keep this option firmly on the table if the UK economy fails to return to trend in the next six months.
Andrew has been helping high net individuals with financial planning since 1996. In his career he has been named one of the top 100 financial planners in the United States and he is a 4 Year Winner from Five Star Professionals.
The document provides information about the next six months from the perspective of a financial advisor. It discusses the turbulent past six months due to the COVID-19 pandemic and hopes the next six months will be better. It then analyzes the impact past US presidents have had on markets and the economy during their terms, noting both positive and negative impacts. It concludes that a Biden or Trump presidency will likely have a mixed impact, and that investors should stay the course and focus on long-term investing rather than trying to time markets based on who is president.
Gannett reported second quarter earnings of $1.20 per share, a 6% increase over the prior year. Newspaper advertising revenues rose 3% domestically and Newsquest revenues were up 3% in pounds in the UK. Television revenues increased 1% despite lower political spending. Cash costs rose over 6% including acquisitions, but on a pro forma basis excluding acquisitions costs rose around 3% reflecting commercial printing growth and currency impacts. July advertising trends were mixed with television pacings slightly below prior year when adjusting for large political spending last year. Near-term outlook remained cautious due to economic uncertainty.
This document provides a weekly market summary for the week ending February 22, 2019. It summarizes the performance of major US indexes such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite, which posted modest gains for the week. It also provides the latest data on economic indicators such as new orders for durable goods, existing home sales, unemployment claims, and upcoming key economic reports.
This presentation will discuss the deficit projections for the Government of Canada from 2016-2021.
The focus will be on consumer spending, merchandise trade, infrastructure and government spending. The presentation will highlight election promises as well as what is happening both with Canadian and World economies.
The NIFTY 50 Index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark expansive based securities exchange index for the Indian value showcase. In Nifty50 Cash Services Trade Nivesh provide you Nifty Intraday Trading Tips with High Profit Levels.
Olivier Desbarres: UK economy post referendum – for richer, but mostly for po...Olivier Desbarres
We may well never know the true extent of the impact of the EU referendum outcome on the British economy, markets and ultimately standards of living. This may not be the most satisfying conclusion, but this uncertainty is one which policy-makers will have to grapple with.
As to the bigger question of whether the UK is better off today or will be better off in years to come when one takes into account not only the impact on the economy but also broader, less tangible issues such as sovereignty, the answer is and will likely remain even more subjective.
In any case, available data paint a patchy picture of the UK economy post-referendum. Construction and services have been harder hit than manufacturing. Retail sales were strong in July thanks in part to a robust labour market and plentiful lending. While this defies the collapse in consumer confidence temporary factors may also have been at play.
The residential property market at a national level has been softer but resilient post referendum. Mortgage lending remains depressed but government policies are for now more likely to blame. The commercial property market has been harder hit.
Sterling’s 10% collapse since the referendum, following a 10% depreciation between November and June, is seemingly supporting economic growth and demand for UK assets even if history suggests that it is no panacea. Its inflationary impact has so far been very modest but the risk is a squeeze on profit margins and real wages.
At the same time sterling’s collapse has tangibly eroded the UK’s net wealth, at least when expressed in foreign-currency terms – a fact largely ignored by policy-makers and the media.
I would expect the BoE to continue favouring monetary and credit policies which explicitly help spur lending, spending and investment and, implicitly at least, help cap sterling. While this may not translate into another policy rate cut or round of QE near-term, the BoE is likely to keep this option firmly on the table if the UK economy fails to return to trend in the next six months.
Andrew has been helping high net individuals with financial planning since 1996. In his career he has been named one of the top 100 financial planners in the United States and he is a 4 Year Winner from Five Star Professionals.
Trade Nivesh Is A Best Known SEBI Registered Investment Advisor In Indore, We Provide Best In Class Equity And Commodity Trading Tips Get Registered For A Free Trial For Intraday And Positional Calls.
Premia Weekly Market Commentary April 22 2019TJ Villamil
- The US stock market moved little during the shortened trading week around Easter, with the Dow rising slightly and other indexes like the S&P 500 declining marginally.
- Retail sales in March had their largest monthly increase since 2017, though industrial production declined slightly.
- Initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since 1969, indicating a strong labor market, though housing starts dropped in March.
- Investors will watch for the first estimate of US GDP growth in the first quarter on Friday, which some expect to show a further slowdown over the last quarter of 2018.
- The Total Asset Partners portfolio returned 7.53% gross and 6.34% net for 2016. Returns were supported by equities offsetting losses in municipal bonds.
- For the fourth quarter, returns were 0.83% gross and 0.26% net. The portfolio has outperformed benchmarks like the S&P 500 and Barclays Aggregate index on a year-to-date basis with lower volatility.
- The document discusses economic and market outlooks, noting expectations for modest US growth around 2-2.5% in 2017, potential for higher inflation and interest rates, and risks from a strong US dollar.
This document provides a summary of Gannett Co.'s third quarter 2004 conference call with analysts. [1] Gannett reported earnings of $1.18 per share, matching analyst estimates. [2] Newsprint costs increased 15% due to a 12.4% price increase and 2.4% usage increase. [3] Overall revenue growth was solid, though some regions and categories faced challenges due to hurricanes and difficult year-over-year comparisons.
- The Total Asset Partners portfolio returned 1.54% for Q3 and 6.27% year-to-date, outperforming fixed income but lagging the S&P 500 while maintaining lower volatility.
- The portfolio remains defensively positioned with 35% in equities, 45% in fixed income, and 19.4% in cash as valuations across asset classes appear expensive and economic growth remains weak.
- Key concerns include declining corporate profits, high debt levels, the risk of higher interest rates, deteriorating high yield credit fundamentals, and expensive equity valuations leaving little room for further expansion.
- The document discusses the potential economic impact of President-elect Donald Trump's proposed fiscal plans, including tax cuts and increased spending.
- It finds that tax cuts would provide a larger short-term boost to growth than increased spending, but that spending measures have higher fiscal multipliers. Tax cuts are also more likely to push up Treasury yields and pose risks for bond investors.
- The size and permanence of the tax cuts will determine their impact, with temporary cuts having lower multipliers than permanent ones. Spending is generally more efficient at boosting growth.
- Trump's tax cut proposals are larger than Republican plans but may be less effective at boosting growth due to focusing more on high-income
This document provides the transcript from Gannett Co.'s first quarter 2005 earnings conference call on April 14, 2005. The call discusses Gannett's financial results for the first quarter, including a 5% increase in earnings per share. Advertising revenues were up for newspapers and USA Today, while broadcasting revenues declined due to lack of political advertising. Auto advertising remained soft across all platforms. While March newspaper advertising was weaker than expected, overall results were solid.
US stocks continued to rally strongly as 2017 drew to a close. Global stock markets joined the rally that began after the 2016 US presidential election. Economic data strengthened and implied volatility declined. Growth was supported by cheaper energy and increasing global synchronization, though major challenges remained. World trade growth picked up but remained below historical levels. Tax reform progress created market optimism but actual growth and improved living standards will need to be evident in 2018.
1) While Panama has experienced strong economic growth in recent years, the document expresses concerns about medium-term fiscal trends and political stability.
2) It notes frequent changes have been made to Panama's fiscal responsibility law to accommodate higher spending, and questions the transparency of "turnkey projects" totaling over $5 billion.
3) The large public investment program and some "white elephant" projects raise doubts about fiscal efficiency, as the country's metro system will likely require large operating subsidies despite serving a small population.
- The San Francisco housing market remains very competitive, with sale prices continuing to exceed listing prices. The median home price was over $1,000,000 for the second month in a row.
- The real estate market is still in the recovery stage of the cycle, as seen by declining foreclosures, low inventory, and low mortgage rates. The recovery is expected to continue for the next few years.
- Both home and condo sale prices rose year-over-year in March. The median home price was up 5.3% while the median condo price set a new record at $970,000, up 17% from the previous year.
What North America’s top finance executives are thinking - and doingΔρ. Γιώργος K. Κασάπης
Each quarter (since 2Q10), CFO Signals has tracked the thinking and actions of CFOs representing many of North America’s largest and most influential companies. All respondents are CFOs from the US, Canada, and Mexico, and the vast majority are from companies with more than $1 billion in annual revenue. The 1Q 2021 survey was open from February 8-19, 2021. A total of 128 CFOs participated, 69% from public companies and 31% from privately held companies.
The document discusses how the recent election of Mauricio Macri as President of Argentina may affect Standard & Poor's ratings on Argentina. Some key points:
- The election will not immediately change Argentina's foreign currency ratings of 'SD', which will remain until Argentina cures its default by paying or restructuring its debt.
- Macri will face economic challenges like low foreign reserves, fiscal deficits, and high inflation. Reaching an agreement with holdout creditors is important to access global capital markets.
- Macri's party will not hold a majority in Congress, so he will need to work with the opposition party to pass initiatives like a debt agreement.
We expect the Bank of Canada to keep its overnight
rate unchanged at 0.50% next week.
The Bank is likely to echo its recent statements that the downside risks to inflation have increased, leading to an overall dovish tone to the statement and accompanying Monetary Policy Report. We expect the Bank to remain on the sidelines until 2019.
Recent fiscal and macroprudential policies have helped ease some of the pressure off the Bank of Canada, with last week’s new housing sector measures removing some of the downside risks from household imbalances.
Financial Wealth Management benefits a basic knowledge of the current economic climate. Download this free report on the state of the economy, government, and how they affect YOU.
- Gannett reported second quarter earnings of $1.30 per share, at the high end of guidance and a new record. Revenues increased nearly 10% driven by strong newspaper revenue growth and political spending.
- Local advertising rose almost 6% led by a 23.3% increase in employment classifieds. National advertising at USA Today was up 15.5%. Non-daily publications and online revenues continued double-digit growth.
- Gannett authorized an additional $1 billion for share repurchases, believing the stock is very attractive at current price levels. Management expects to opportunistically execute on the $1.7 billion authorization.
The document provides an overview and summary of capital markets insights from the summer of 2018. Some key points:
- Interest rates rose in the US as the Fed hiked rates again in June and signaled further hikes in 2018 and 2019. High yield bond issuance declined as a result.
- Demand remained strong for private middle market loans as investors sought higher yields. Leverage remained steady for senior loans but declined slightly for second lien/subordinated loans.
- Economic growth remained solid in the US, UK and Europe in the first half of 2018, though the BOE and ECB took a softer stance on future rate hikes compared to prior statements.
Tax Reform: Time for Rubber to meet the road!David Apted
The passage discusses the potential impacts of the recently passed Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. It suggests that the tax cuts could significantly boost US corporate earnings and economic growth. Specifically, it predicts earnings for the S&P 500 index may increase 13-18% in 2018 due to the lower corporate tax rate of 21%. This would push the index's price-to-earnings ratio to a more reasonable level. Industries with large domestic revenues like retail, telecom, and utilities may benefit the most. The tax cuts could also push GDP growth above 3% over the next few years and further delay recession risks.
The Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.7% in the first quarter of 2017, led by strong growth in household spending, residential investment, and business investment in machinery and equipment. Household spending increased at its fastest pace in seven years, while residential investment grew at its strongest rate in five years. Business investment in machinery and equipment rose for the first time since 2014. The GDP report supports the Bank of Canada's forecast of 3.8% growth for 2017 and maintains positive momentum for the second quarter, although some risks remain from factors such as the housing market cooling and recent floods in Quebec.
The Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.7% in the first quarter of 2017, led by strong growth in household spending, residential investment, and business investment in machinery and equipment. Household spending increased at its fastest pace in seven years, while residential investment grew at its fastest rate in five years. Business investment in machinery and equipment marked the first increase since late 2014. The GDP report supports the Bank of Canada's forecast of 3.8% growth for 2017 and maintains positive momentum for the second quarter, although recent floods and cooling in the housing market may weigh on growth.
The Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.7% in the first quarter of 2017, led by strong growth in household spending, residential investment, and business investment in machinery and equipment. Household spending increased at its fastest pace in seven years, while residential investment grew at its strongest rate in five years. Business investment in machinery and equipment rose for the first time since 2014. Overall, the GDP report signals a broadly based economic recovery in Canada and is in line with the Bank of Canada's growth forecast, though some risks remain from trade policy changes.
Trade Nivesh Is A Best Known SEBI Registered Investment Advisor In Indore, We Provide Best In Class Equity And Commodity Trading Tips Get Registered For A Free Trial For Intraday And Positional Calls.
Premia Weekly Market Commentary April 22 2019TJ Villamil
- The US stock market moved little during the shortened trading week around Easter, with the Dow rising slightly and other indexes like the S&P 500 declining marginally.
- Retail sales in March had their largest monthly increase since 2017, though industrial production declined slightly.
- Initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since 1969, indicating a strong labor market, though housing starts dropped in March.
- Investors will watch for the first estimate of US GDP growth in the first quarter on Friday, which some expect to show a further slowdown over the last quarter of 2018.
- The Total Asset Partners portfolio returned 7.53% gross and 6.34% net for 2016. Returns were supported by equities offsetting losses in municipal bonds.
- For the fourth quarter, returns were 0.83% gross and 0.26% net. The portfolio has outperformed benchmarks like the S&P 500 and Barclays Aggregate index on a year-to-date basis with lower volatility.
- The document discusses economic and market outlooks, noting expectations for modest US growth around 2-2.5% in 2017, potential for higher inflation and interest rates, and risks from a strong US dollar.
This document provides a summary of Gannett Co.'s third quarter 2004 conference call with analysts. [1] Gannett reported earnings of $1.18 per share, matching analyst estimates. [2] Newsprint costs increased 15% due to a 12.4% price increase and 2.4% usage increase. [3] Overall revenue growth was solid, though some regions and categories faced challenges due to hurricanes and difficult year-over-year comparisons.
- The Total Asset Partners portfolio returned 1.54% for Q3 and 6.27% year-to-date, outperforming fixed income but lagging the S&P 500 while maintaining lower volatility.
- The portfolio remains defensively positioned with 35% in equities, 45% in fixed income, and 19.4% in cash as valuations across asset classes appear expensive and economic growth remains weak.
- Key concerns include declining corporate profits, high debt levels, the risk of higher interest rates, deteriorating high yield credit fundamentals, and expensive equity valuations leaving little room for further expansion.
- The document discusses the potential economic impact of President-elect Donald Trump's proposed fiscal plans, including tax cuts and increased spending.
- It finds that tax cuts would provide a larger short-term boost to growth than increased spending, but that spending measures have higher fiscal multipliers. Tax cuts are also more likely to push up Treasury yields and pose risks for bond investors.
- The size and permanence of the tax cuts will determine their impact, with temporary cuts having lower multipliers than permanent ones. Spending is generally more efficient at boosting growth.
- Trump's tax cut proposals are larger than Republican plans but may be less effective at boosting growth due to focusing more on high-income
This document provides the transcript from Gannett Co.'s first quarter 2005 earnings conference call on April 14, 2005. The call discusses Gannett's financial results for the first quarter, including a 5% increase in earnings per share. Advertising revenues were up for newspapers and USA Today, while broadcasting revenues declined due to lack of political advertising. Auto advertising remained soft across all platforms. While March newspaper advertising was weaker than expected, overall results were solid.
US stocks continued to rally strongly as 2017 drew to a close. Global stock markets joined the rally that began after the 2016 US presidential election. Economic data strengthened and implied volatility declined. Growth was supported by cheaper energy and increasing global synchronization, though major challenges remained. World trade growth picked up but remained below historical levels. Tax reform progress created market optimism but actual growth and improved living standards will need to be evident in 2018.
1) While Panama has experienced strong economic growth in recent years, the document expresses concerns about medium-term fiscal trends and political stability.
2) It notes frequent changes have been made to Panama's fiscal responsibility law to accommodate higher spending, and questions the transparency of "turnkey projects" totaling over $5 billion.
3) The large public investment program and some "white elephant" projects raise doubts about fiscal efficiency, as the country's metro system will likely require large operating subsidies despite serving a small population.
- The San Francisco housing market remains very competitive, with sale prices continuing to exceed listing prices. The median home price was over $1,000,000 for the second month in a row.
- The real estate market is still in the recovery stage of the cycle, as seen by declining foreclosures, low inventory, and low mortgage rates. The recovery is expected to continue for the next few years.
- Both home and condo sale prices rose year-over-year in March. The median home price was up 5.3% while the median condo price set a new record at $970,000, up 17% from the previous year.
What North America’s top finance executives are thinking - and doingΔρ. Γιώργος K. Κασάπης
Each quarter (since 2Q10), CFO Signals has tracked the thinking and actions of CFOs representing many of North America’s largest and most influential companies. All respondents are CFOs from the US, Canada, and Mexico, and the vast majority are from companies with more than $1 billion in annual revenue. The 1Q 2021 survey was open from February 8-19, 2021. A total of 128 CFOs participated, 69% from public companies and 31% from privately held companies.
The document discusses how the recent election of Mauricio Macri as President of Argentina may affect Standard & Poor's ratings on Argentina. Some key points:
- The election will not immediately change Argentina's foreign currency ratings of 'SD', which will remain until Argentina cures its default by paying or restructuring its debt.
- Macri will face economic challenges like low foreign reserves, fiscal deficits, and high inflation. Reaching an agreement with holdout creditors is important to access global capital markets.
- Macri's party will not hold a majority in Congress, so he will need to work with the opposition party to pass initiatives like a debt agreement.
We expect the Bank of Canada to keep its overnight
rate unchanged at 0.50% next week.
The Bank is likely to echo its recent statements that the downside risks to inflation have increased, leading to an overall dovish tone to the statement and accompanying Monetary Policy Report. We expect the Bank to remain on the sidelines until 2019.
Recent fiscal and macroprudential policies have helped ease some of the pressure off the Bank of Canada, with last week’s new housing sector measures removing some of the downside risks from household imbalances.
Financial Wealth Management benefits a basic knowledge of the current economic climate. Download this free report on the state of the economy, government, and how they affect YOU.
- Gannett reported second quarter earnings of $1.30 per share, at the high end of guidance and a new record. Revenues increased nearly 10% driven by strong newspaper revenue growth and political spending.
- Local advertising rose almost 6% led by a 23.3% increase in employment classifieds. National advertising at USA Today was up 15.5%. Non-daily publications and online revenues continued double-digit growth.
- Gannett authorized an additional $1 billion for share repurchases, believing the stock is very attractive at current price levels. Management expects to opportunistically execute on the $1.7 billion authorization.
The document provides an overview and summary of capital markets insights from the summer of 2018. Some key points:
- Interest rates rose in the US as the Fed hiked rates again in June and signaled further hikes in 2018 and 2019. High yield bond issuance declined as a result.
- Demand remained strong for private middle market loans as investors sought higher yields. Leverage remained steady for senior loans but declined slightly for second lien/subordinated loans.
- Economic growth remained solid in the US, UK and Europe in the first half of 2018, though the BOE and ECB took a softer stance on future rate hikes compared to prior statements.
Tax Reform: Time for Rubber to meet the road!David Apted
The passage discusses the potential impacts of the recently passed Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. It suggests that the tax cuts could significantly boost US corporate earnings and economic growth. Specifically, it predicts earnings for the S&P 500 index may increase 13-18% in 2018 due to the lower corporate tax rate of 21%. This would push the index's price-to-earnings ratio to a more reasonable level. Industries with large domestic revenues like retail, telecom, and utilities may benefit the most. The tax cuts could also push GDP growth above 3% over the next few years and further delay recession risks.
The Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.7% in the first quarter of 2017, led by strong growth in household spending, residential investment, and business investment in machinery and equipment. Household spending increased at its fastest pace in seven years, while residential investment grew at its strongest rate in five years. Business investment in machinery and equipment rose for the first time since 2014. The GDP report supports the Bank of Canada's forecast of 3.8% growth for 2017 and maintains positive momentum for the second quarter, although some risks remain from factors such as the housing market cooling and recent floods in Quebec.
The Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.7% in the first quarter of 2017, led by strong growth in household spending, residential investment, and business investment in machinery and equipment. Household spending increased at its fastest pace in seven years, while residential investment grew at its fastest rate in five years. Business investment in machinery and equipment marked the first increase since late 2014. The GDP report supports the Bank of Canada's forecast of 3.8% growth for 2017 and maintains positive momentum for the second quarter, although recent floods and cooling in the housing market may weigh on growth.
The Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.7% in the first quarter of 2017, led by strong growth in household spending, residential investment, and business investment in machinery and equipment. Household spending increased at its fastest pace in seven years, while residential investment grew at its strongest rate in five years. Business investment in machinery and equipment rose for the first time since 2014. Overall, the GDP report signals a broadly based economic recovery in Canada and is in line with the Bank of Canada's growth forecast, though some risks remain from trade policy changes.
LBS - Housing CPI Retail Preview, May 2017Mark MacIsaac
This document provides an analysis of recent economic data in Canada. It summarizes that housing market data showed a cooling in the Toronto region with falling home sales and rising listings. Inflation as measured by CPI is expected to rise slightly less than expectations, while retail sales are forecast to increase modestly. Overall, real GDP growth is projected to slow in the second quarter but rebound in the third quarter, with annual growth of around 2% in 2017-2018, assuming expansionary US fiscal policies are adopted.
LBS Economic Research and Strategy - Canada Real GDP Q2-2017Mark MacIsaac
Bottom Line: Today’s blockbuster GDP report reinforces the need to raise the overnight rate target before the end of
the year. In our view, BoC officials will come up to the conclusion that it is still preferable to stay on the sidelines on
September 6th and hike at the October 25th meeting. Indeed, it seems appropriate to wait after the Federal Reserve’s
September 20th meeting at which time the Fed will give more guidance about how it intends to shrink its balance
sheet and after another possible debt ceiling drama in late September/early October. Moreover, BoC officials should
be in no rush to announce a second 25bps hike since Canadian CPI inflation figures remain well below the 2% target.
LBS comment - Bank of Canada Decision - April 2017Mark MacIsaac
The Bank of Canada (BoC) left its overnight rate unchanged at 0.50%, as markets expected. While recent GDP growth has been encouraging, the BoC remains cautious, noting it is too soon to conclude the economy is on a sustainable path and there are significant uncertainties. There are a number of risks that could weaken the Canadian outlook, including potential trade actions from the US. The BoC forecasts GDP growth of 2.6% for 2017 but sees challenges in broadening economic momentum. As a result, it is difficult for the BoC to foresee rate hikes in the medium term while uncertainties persist.
Laurentian Bank Securities - Economic Research and Strategy Mark MacIsaac
Quebec Fiscal Update: Additional tax relief for individuals without compromising debt reduction.
The fiscal update unveiled in Quebec City on November 21st could be appropriately dubbed a responsible mini-budget.
Credit Suisse Analysis Brasil 2019-2020Edward Lange
- The document discusses Brazil's positive economic outlook for 2019-2020 based on continued recovery, low inflation, and gradual normalization of monetary policy. However, successful fiscal reforms, especially of social security, are needed to stabilize public debt.
- The new administration faces challenges of low growth, deteriorating public finances, and needs to implement productivity and fiscal reforms to put Brazil on a sustainable path. Reforms like tax changes, opening the economy, and education are part of the productivity agenda.
- Risks include a weak social security reform, faster foreign tightening, and weaker China; opportunities include faster reforms to boost growth and asset prices. The fiscal agenda is the main domestic risk over the outlook period.
This document provides information on Canadian real GDP growth and is not intended as investment advice. It summarizes that Canadian real GDP grew 0.6% month-over-month in May, driven partly by increased oil sands activity. Fourteen of twenty industries saw growth, and GDP is forecast to increase 3.75% annualized in Q2 2017. While economic growth is strong, the Bank of Canada is still expected to keep interest rates unchanged until October due to other factors like inflation, the Canadian dollar, NAFTA negotiations, and housing cooling in parts of Ontario.
The document discusses Q3 2017 earnings results for the S&P 500 index. While overall earnings growth was 5.3% year-over-year, excluding losses from property and casualty insurers due to hurricanes, earnings growth was a stronger 8.1%. Earnings are expected to continue supporting the bull market, with growth projected in the high single digits for 2018. The market is positioned for continued earnings growth given the strong US economy and synchronized global expansions.
The document provides a quarterly commentary and market observations from Macinv. In the first quarter, skepticism remained among investors but market sell-offs were less dramatic than previous years. Government policies are adjusting to stabilize fiscal situations. US GDP is expected to grow 2-2.5% in 2013. The Fed will continue quantitative easing and low interest rates. Key components of the US economy like home and auto sales showed growth in the first quarter. Macinv's portfolio performed well led by coal, transportation, and healthcare stocks. Natural Resource Partners and Norfolk Southern were top performers while CenturyLink underperformed after cutting its dividend.
This document summarizes an analysis of recent economic data in Canada and its implications for monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Canada (BoC). Strong real GDP growth and an upbeat business outlook survey suggest the Canadian economy continues to gain momentum. As a result, barring any major economic disruptions, the analysis expects the BoC to raise its policy rate by 0.25% at its upcoming decision on July 12th. However, the summary cautions that more than two 0.25% rate hikes in the next year may be premature given ongoing uncertainties around oil prices, housing markets, and international policies.
Laurentian Bank Securities - Economic Research and Strategy Mark MacIsaac
The Quebec economy grew at a slower pace of 1.8% annualized in the first quarter of 2018, its slowest in 6 quarters, due to slower household expenditure growth. Household savings increased to a high of 7.3% while business investment and government spending continued trending upward, making the expansion more broad-based. However, Quebec's international trade balance deteriorated before US tariffs and the weakness was concentrated in aluminum exports, though other exports grew double-digit. Overall the economy started 2018 respectably but at a slower pace than 2017 and momentum may not accelerate given global trade tensions and a tight labor market.
2023-14-06_Financial Statement for the Govt of Canada - 2018-2019.pdfpaul young cpa, cga
The document provides a summary of the Government of Canada's condensed consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2019. It highlights that the government posted a budgetary deficit of $14 billion for 2018-19, lower than the estimated $14.9 billion deficit. Revenues increased by $21 billion or 6.7% from 2017-18, while expenses rose $16 billion or 4.8%. The federal debt amounted to $685.5 billion at the end of March 2019, with the debt-to-GDP ratio at 30.9%, down from 31.3% the previous year. For the 21st consecutive year, the government received an unmodified audit opinion on its consolidated financial statements.
Fitch affirms south africa at 'bb+'; outlook stableSABC News
Fitch Affirms South Africa's sovereign credit ratings at 'BB+' with a Stable Outlook. While South Africa faces challenges including low growth, high government debt, and weakening governance, the ratings affirmation reflects potential fiscal consolidation after ANC leadership elections in December. However, fiscal pressures are rising as deficits and debt are higher than expected. Political uncertainty ahead of the elections is also contributing to policy paralysis. Growth is projected to remain low at around 2% due to structural problems.
This document provides a weekly market commentary and overview of recent events from Trans-National Research (TNR). It includes the following:
1) A summary of TNR's scheduled events and trips in various regions including Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Africa, Italy, France, Brussels, and Iran.
2) A commentary on recent economic and political developments in Nigeria, Brazil, Malaysia, and other countries.
3) A summary of notable fund flows into various exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and TNR's outlook on markets in the coming weeks.
This document summarizes WestRock's Q3 FY18 financial results. Key highlights include a 12% increase in net sales year-over-year and strong demand fundamentals across segments. Adjusted earnings per share were up 47% to $1.09. Adjusted segment EBITDA grew 27% with margins expanding 220 basis points. The corrugated packaging segment saw a 29% increase in adjusted segment EBITDA with North America margins improving 420 basis points. The acquisition of KapStone is expected to close by the end of 2018. Full year 2018 guidance projects 10% revenue growth, over 27% adjusted EBITDA growth, and 22.5% adjusted operating cash flow growth.
The document summarizes an analyst's downgrade of the consumer staples sector from overweight to neutral based on two key factors: 1) Earnings estimates have declined and valuations have increased for the sector, weakening its fundamentals. 2) Canadian consumer spending growth has slowed significantly, reducing the sector's leverage to the Canadian consumer. The analyst expects a more sluggish performance from the staples sector going forward given these factors.
Fitch Ratings affirmed Costa Rica's long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings at 'BB+' with a stable outlook. Costa Rica's ratings are supported by strong institutions and social development but constrained by a narrow tax base and rigid budgets limiting fiscal flexibility. While debt is currently low, deficits averaging 4.6% of GDP over the next two years could increase debt to 40% of GDP by 2015 without tax reform. Fitch expects 3.8% average growth but risks include weakness in the US economy or a worsening eurozone crisis.
Similar to LBS Economic Research and Strategy (20)
Canadian Real GDP Report and U.S.–Canada Trade Talks
Canadian real GDP advanced by 2.9% (q/q annualized) in 2018Q2 after increasing at a softer pace the previous
three quarters (see chart below).
The Quebec Minister of Finance released a pre-election report showing an improved fiscal situation for the province. The budgetary balance for the next five years has improved by $950M annually due to higher than expected GDP and tax revenues. For the 2017-2018 fiscal year, there was a $4.6B surplus before contributions to the Generations Fund. The report estimates Quebec's finances would withstand NAFTA termination or a typical recession, but a major economic slowdown would cost the province $8.5B in revenues. The Auditor General found the economic forecasts to be plausible, reducing the risk of an unexpected fiscal shortfall after the elections.
Canadian CPI Preview – July: The Inflation Build-up Continues.
The 0.5% m/m real GDP gain in June and the
54K net job creation in July clearly show that the
Canadian economy has momentum. Our
economy is running at full capacity.
Bank of Canada Decision – Rate Hike: Not Today but Moving Closer
The Bank of Canada (BoC) left its overnight rate target unchanged at 1.25% this morning. More importantly for financial markets,
the statement explaining this decision took a hawkish turn: “Overall, developments since April further reinforce Governing
Council’s view that higher interest rates will be warranted to keep inflation near target. Governing Council will take a gradual
approach to policy adjustments, guided by incoming data.”
Bank of Canada Decision and Real GDP – Preview
We expect a very close call for the monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with the Bank of Canada (BoC) leaving the overnight rate target unchanged at 1.25%.
Bank of Canada Decision and Real GDP – Preview
We expect a very close call for the monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with the Bank of Canada (BoC) leaving the overnight rate target unchanged at 1.25%.
Bank of Canada Decision and Real GDP – Preview
We expect a very close call for the monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with the Bank of Canada (BoC) leaving the overnight rate target unchanged at 1.25%.
Canadian CPI Inflation and Retail Sales
CPI: Total CPI rose by a robust 0.3% m/m in April, in line with market expectations. Gasoline prices (+6.8% m/m) and telephone fees charged by telecom providers (+4.1% m/m) rose sharply. Food prices in restaurants increased by 0.4% in April after surging by 2% during the first three months of 2018; restaurant owners in Ontario are still passing on the steep minimum wage hike to consumers.
We are pleased to be hosting a Blockchain Panel (non-cryptocurrency) discussion at this year’s conference. A brief summary of the participating blockchain companies is as follows:
The January labour market report is expected to show little change in employment and a slight rise in unemployment. Total employment is forecast to remain flat compared to December, at around 10,000, with unemployment rising 0.1 percentage points to 5.9%. While some factors point to ongoing job creation, such as fewer layoffs, others suggest hiring growth may slow, like potential cooling in housing and manufacturing. Wage growth remains strong, with average hourly earnings up over 2.5% year-over-year, posing upside risks to inflation that could require further Bank of Canada interest rate hikes in 2018.
LBS - Asset Allocation Model – February UpdateMark MacIsaac
Robust and synchronized upswing in global economic growth, still accelerating earnings growth, global consensus earnings projections continuing to improve and accommodative financial conditions all remained supportive of equities in January.
The new U.S. tax law presents challenges for Canadian companies with operations in or exporting to the U.S. due to uncertain economic effects. While the corporate tax rate cut may initially raise valuations for domestic U.S. companies, different sectors will be impacted differently. Analyzing the full effects requires examining direct impacts of new rules as well as strategic corporate responses and potential retaliation from trading partners.
- Global equities hit record highs in December as global economic growth remained strong, however rising inflation and tighter monetary policy pose risks going forward.
- The portfolio maintains overweights in Canadian, emerging market, and select sector equities, as well as underweights in corporate bonds due to rich valuations and inflation risks.
- Key concerns include peaking corporate earnings growth, closing output gaps driving inflation higher, and shifting central bank policies weighing on stock prices over the coming months.
The document summarizes the Labour Force Survey report for December that will be published in January. It expects a small increase of 5,000 jobs in December, extending the streak of job gains to 13 months. While job growth was strong over the past year, unemployment is forecast to rise slightly to 6.0% as more people join the workforce. Overall, the labor market remains supportive of economic growth but shows some softness that explains muted wage growth. The forecast is for 350,000 new jobs in Canada over the next 12 months and for the unemployment rate to fall to 5.8% by the end of 2018.
Laurentian Bank Securities - Economic Research and Strategy Mark MacIsaac
LBS Asset Allocation December Update:
Global equities made yet another high this month as global economic data remained robust and economic growth prospects kept being upgraded.
Laurentian Bank Securities - Economic Research and Strategy Mark MacIsaac
BoC Market Musings: a dovish speech, CPI preview and a lower neutral rate.
BoC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins gave a dovish speech in NYC last evening. First, Wilkins mentioned that low inflation
was one of many reasons justifying the BoC cautious approach regarding the swift withdrawal of further stimulus. Some of
the key passages that caught our attention are: “There are also times when uncertainty can lead to caution or patience.
Just three weeks ago, the Bank decided to leave the policy rate unchanged… One of the motivations for caution is that
inflation has been in the lower end of the inflation target bands of 1 to 3 per cent for quite some time…the central bank
puts a greater weight on the downside risks when inflation is low to begin with.”
LBS Economic Research and Strategy - Bank of Canada Decision – SeptemberMark MacIsaac
Very strong confidence in the Canadian economic recovery led BoC officials to increase the overnight rate target by 25
basis points for the second time in eight weeks. The BoC policy rate now stands at 1.00%.
Laurentian Bank Securities - Economic Research and Strategy Mark MacIsaac
LBS Asset Allocation Model – September Update:
Global economic data remained robust in August and continue to point to solid, broad-based and synchronized economic expansion. Financial conditions also remain easy and still provide a supportive environment for economic growth.
LBS Economic Research and Strategy - August 24, 2017 Mark MacIsaac
Investor complacency in the stock market, as measured by a model developed by strategist Jim Paulsen, currently stands at historically high levels. The model examines the consistency of positive monthly stock returns over the past five years compared to market volatility over the same period. Complacency has exceeded the 0.7 threshold, which is above the typical 0.25 to 0.6 range seen since 1950. Historically, negative reversals have often followed periods when complacency rose above 0.6, potentially signaling a risk of a market pullback. Investors should monitor changes in this complacency indicator for warning signs of a potential repricing of risk assets.
LBS Asset Allocation August Update - July 28, 2017Mark MacIsaac
Global economic data continues to show strong growth, but signs point to a peak in momentum. While US and Eurozone manufacturing surveys weakened, emerging market equities continue outperforming. Key indicators like flattening yield curves and disconnect between commodities and the US dollar suggest growth is likely decelerating. The document recommends slightly increasing exposure to emerging market equities and reducing underweight of other developed markets. It also recommends overweighting health care in the US and financials in Canada.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
Abhay Bhutada Leads Poonawalla Fincorp To Record Low NPA And Unprecedented Gr...Vighnesh Shashtri
Under the leadership of Abhay Bhutada, Poonawalla Fincorp has achieved record-low Non-Performing Assets (NPA) and witnessed unprecedented growth. Bhutada's strategic vision and effective management have significantly enhanced the company's financial health, showcasing a robust performance in the financial sector. This achievement underscores the company's resilience and ability to thrive in a competitive market, setting a new benchmark for operational excellence in the industry.
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdfNeal Brewster
After this second you should be able to: Explain the main determinants of demand for any mineral product, and their relative importance; recognise and explain how demand for any product is likely to change with economic activity; recognise and explain the roles of technology and relative prices in influencing demand; be able to explain the differences between the rates of growth of demand for different products.
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Abhay Bhutada, the Managing Director of Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, is an accomplished leader with over 15 years of experience in commercial and retail lending. A Qualified Chartered Accountant, he has been pivotal in leveraging technology to enhance financial services. Starting his career at Bank of India, he later founded TAB Capital Limited and co-founded Poonawalla Finance Private Limited, emphasizing digital lending. Under his leadership, Poonawalla Fincorp achieved a 'AAA' credit rating, integrating acquisitions and emphasizing corporate governance. Actively involved in industry forums and CSR initiatives, Abhay has been recognized with awards like "Young Entrepreneur of India 2017" and "40 under 40 Most Influential Leader for 2020-21." Personally, he values mindfulness, enjoys gardening, yoga, and sees every day as an opportunity for growth and improvement.
1.
Canadian Real GDP Report and U.S.–Canada Trade Talks
Canadian real GDP advanced by 2.9% (q/q annualized) in 2018Q2 after increasing at a softer pace the previous
three quarters (see chart below).
The breakdown of real GDP’s major components shows two principal drivers of growth. First, the U.S. economy
experienced its strongest period of growth since 2014 (the U.S. real GDP estimate was revised up from 4.0% to 4.2%
q/q annualized yesterday), allowing Canadian exports to soar during the quarter (+12.3% q/q ann). Imports advanced
less rapidly (+6.5% q/q ann.), leading to a 1.5pp positive contribution of net trade to real GDP growth. Second,
consumer spending growth accelerated to 2.6% (q/q ann.), adding 1.5pp to real GDP growth. The areas of consumer
spending that over performed during 2018Q2 were clothing, home furnishings and durable goods for recreation and
culture. In nominal terms, household expenditures advanced at a faster pace than nominal disposable income for a
third consecutive quarter. Thus, the household savings rate declined from 4.5% in late 2017 to 3.4% in 2018Q2, still
a reasonable financial cushion to insulate Canadians from an unexpected negative economic downturn.
The contribution of other expenditure components to real GDP growth was smaller. First, business investment in
M&E (+1.4% q/q ann.) and non-residential structures (+2.2% q/q ann.) barely moved in 2018Q2 after rising at a
double-digit pace in 2018Q1. Second, a slower accumulation of business inventories shaved 0.4pp to real GDP
growth in 2018Q2. Third, government spending registered its softest increase in a year (+1.6% q/q ann.). Fourth,
residential investment virtually stalled (+1.1% q/q ann.). More precisely, the three subcomponents of residential
investment went in different directions: the level of new construction activity stayed dynamic, edging down from the
previous quarter (-1.3% q/q ann.); renovation activities registered its best gain in the current business cycle (+12.2%
q/q ann.); ownership transfer costs plunged (-12.8% q/q ann.) due to the severe decline in MLS resale transactions.
Ownership transfer costs dropped by a cumulative 19% since the implementation of the B20 mortgage-qualification in
January 2018. The good news is that resale activity is now coming out of this 2018Q2 trough. The rebound in MLS
resale transactions observed during summer, particularly in the GTA market, indicates a recovery in
ownership transfer costs for the third quarter.
The 2.9% real GDP growth headline is in line with the BoC July Monetary Policy Report forecast of 2.8% and a notch
below consensus (+3.1%). In our view, a skyrocketing real GDP growth number (3.5%+) would have been necessary
to convince BoC officials to increase the overnight rate target by 25 basis points on September 5th. Furthermore, the
second quarter ended on our sour note with real GDP stalling in June (0.0% m/m), a slight disappointment for
markets (consensus at +0.1% m/m). This tepid ending in 2018Q2 implies a quick return of economic growth close to
potential during the third quarter. Our call is that the BoC will keep the overnight rate target unchanged at 1.50% next
week.
Finally, the economic expansion observed in Canada and the U.S. during 2018Q2 was very good despite the
escalation of global trade tensions. This week, we may assist to the de-escalation of trade frictions in North America.
U.S.-Canada trade talks continue in Washington after the announcement of the U.S.-Mexico deal in principle on
Monday. Mexico made major concessions with the U.S. relative to the content and wage requirements in the auto
sector. Both the U.S. and Canada will likely need to show some flexibility on key trade issues to reach a new trilateral
deal. For instance, Ottawa opened a small portion of the country’s domestic dairy market for the Trans Pacific
Partnership ratification; it remains to be seen if a similar concession will be made for NAFTA. This being said, the
Canadian federal government is unlikely to agree to a new trade pact including the elimination of the dispute
resolution mechanism, a clause included in the U.S.-Mexico deal. All in all, here are two possible scenarios that could
unfold very soon: Scenario #1-A deal in principle is struck between the U.S. and Canada; this scenario should not
2. Economic Research and Strategy
This document is intended only to convey information. It is not to be construed as an investment guide or as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned in it. The author is an employee
of Laurentian Bank Securities (LBS), a wholly owned subsidiary of the Laurentian Bank of Canada. The author has taken all usual and reasonable precautions to determine that the information contained in this document
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and that the procedures used to summarize and analyze it are based on accepted practices and principles. However, the market forces underlying investment value
are subject to evolve suddenly and dramatically. Consequently, neither the author nor LBS can make any warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of information, analysis or views contained in this document or their
usefulness or suitability in any particular circumstance. You should not make any investment or undertake any portfolio assessment or other transaction on the basis of this document, but should first consult your
Investment Advisor, who can assess the relevant factors of any proposed investment or transaction. LBS and the author accept no liability of whatsoever kind for any damages incurred as a result of the use of this
document or of its contents in contravention of this notice. This report, the information, opinions or conclusions, in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, distributed, published or referred to in any manner whatsoever
without in each case the prior express written consent of Laurentian Bank Securities.
increase the odds of a BoC policy rate hike on September 5th in our view. Signs of stronger-than-expected economic
activity triggered by end of NAFTA uncertainty would be required before the BoC thinks about acting more
aggressively than the gradual tightening cycle currently promoted. Scenario #2-Canada and the U.S. are unable to
find common ground; under this scenario, the era of trade uncertainty continues for Canadian businesses for at least
the remaining of 2018 while the U.S. White House tries to push its bilateral trade pact with Mexico to U.S. Congress.
Sébastien Lavoie | Chief Economist | 514 350-2931 | lavoies@vmbl.ca
Source: Statistics Canada/Haver Analytics
Canadian Real GDP
(year-over-year % change)
Canadian Real GDP
(q/q % change at annual rate)
6
4
2
0
-2
6
4
2
0
-2
13 14 15 16 17 18