Stellenbosch University’s (SU) Department of Logistics launched the Logistics Barometer South Africa 2015 on Monday, 1 June. This continues the research published with the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and Imperial Logistics in the State of LogisticsTM surveys for South Africa over the past ten years.

4. 13.6%
12.7%
12. 4%
12.6%
13.6%
13.5%
11.8%
11. 4%
11.0%
11.6%
11.1%
11. 4%
11.7%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f
Source: Stellenbosch University. 2015. Logistics Barometer South Africa 2015. www.sun.ac.za/logisticsbarometer
Logistics costs as a % of GDP – a 12 year time-series

5. 11.1%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f
12.5%
Logistics Barometer State of LogisticsTM
Source: Stellenbosch University. 2015. Logistics Barometer South Africa 2015. www.sun.ac.za/logisticsbarometer
Comparison between the State of LogisticsTM
and Logistics Barometer time series.

6. n Logistics costs % of GDP % of transportable GDP
Randbillion
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
50.4%
49.3% 49.1%
52.1%
55.6%
52.6%
48.6% 47.8% 47.9%
52.2%
50.5%
52.7%
53.9%
13.6% 12.7% 12.4% 12.6% 13.6% 13.5%
11.8%
11.4% 11.0% 11.6%
11.1% 11.4% 11.7%
180 188
203
232
287
319
297
313
332
379
393
434
468
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f
Source: Stellenbosch University. 2015. Logistics Barometer South Africa 2015. www.sun.ac.za/logisticsbarometer
South Africa’s logistics costs in perspective

7. n Transport
n Warehousing
n Inventory carrying cost
n Management and
administration
Source: Stellenbosch University. 2015. Logistics Barometer
South Africa 2015. www.sun.ac.za/logisticsbarometer
Cost contribution of logistics
components in 2013

8. R62bn
13%
R68bn
14%
R65bn
14%
R273bn
58%
n︎ Transport n︎ Warehousing n︎ Inventory carrying cost n Management and administration
Source: Stellenbosch University. 2015. Logistics Barometer South Africa 2015. www.sun.ac.za/logisticsbarometer
+11.5%
+10.6%
+9.1%
+5.8%
R55bn
13%
R61bn
14%
R60bn
14%
R258bn
59%
R49bn
12%
R53bn
14%
R56bn
14%
R235bn
60%
R47bn
12%
R48bn
13%
R55bn
15%
R229bn
60%
R40bn
12%
R45bn
13%
R55bn
16%
R193bn
58%
R39bn
12%
R48bn
15%
R50bn
16%
R176bn
56%
R36bn
12%
R56bn
19%
R49bn
17%
R155bn
52%
+13.9%
+14.8%
+7.8%
+9.7%
+3.6%
+10.6%
+0.5%
+2.7%
+18.4%
+8.0%
+1.4%
+18.4%
+1.7%
-7.4%
+10.0%
+9.9%
+7.8%
-14.1%
+1.1%
+13.2%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f
Logistics cost components tracked over time

9. - Tonnes (volume) Tonne-km (transport intensity) Average days in inventory
- Average inventory Fuel price Prime lending rate
Year-on-yeargrowth
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f
Source: Stellenbosch University. 2015. Logistics Barometer South Africa 2015. www.sun.ac.za/logisticsbarometer
Input cost volatility – how the industry adapts

10. n︎ Pipeline costs
n︎ Rail costs
n︎ Licences
n︎ Toll fees
n︎ Tyres
n︎ Insurance
n︎ Cost of capital
n︎ Depreciation
n︎ Maintenance and repair
n︎ Driver wages
n Fuel
Randbillion
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
4.6
32.4
1.8
3.8
8.0
18.5
19.3
29.2
35.5
33.2
86.4
4.5
31.1
1.7
3.6
6.8
16.3
16.6
25.7
29.6
32.1
89.4
4.4
30.5
1.7
3.6
5.9
13.7
14.6
23.2
26.2
29.2
81.9
4.7
28.5
1.7
3.5
5.6
13.9
14.9
23.5
26.0
29.8
76.6
2.9
25.0
1.6
3.3
4.6
13.2
12.8
19.7
22.3
24.6
63.1
2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f
Source: Stellenbosch University. 2015. Logistics Barometer South Africa 2015. www.sun.ac.za/logisticsbarometer
Transport cost components

11. R420bn
54%
193mt
25%
487mt
64%
81mt
11%
R73bn
9%
R285bn
37%
Value per sector
V
olume contributio
n
n︎ Agriculture n︎ Mining n︎ Manufacturing
Source: Stellenbosch University. 2015. Logistics Barometer South Africa
2015. www.sun.ac.za/logisticsbarometer
Economic and volume contribution of the transportable sectors

12. Openskipbulk
Miningdrybulk
n︎ Total tonnes n︎ Average Transport Distance (ATD)
Agriculturaldrybulk
Heavybreakbulk
Palletised
Liquidbulk
Refrigerated
Lightbreakbulk
Ro-Rotonnes
Totaltonnes(millions)
ATD(km)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
500
400
300
200
100
0
Source: Stellenbosch University. 2015. Logistics Barometer South Africa 2015. www.sun.ac.za/logisticsbarometer
Volume and average travel distance for different logistics systems

13. Rail(exportlines)
Road
Dedicated
systems
221
90
39
11
General
freight
systems
Pipelines,crudetransfer,
coastwise,conveyorbelt
Rail(GFB)
Tonne-km(billion)
250
200
150
100
50
0
Source: Stellenbosch University. 2015. Logistics Barometer South
Africa 2015. www.sun.ac.za/logisticsbarometer
Tonne-kilometres per mode

14. n︎ Road n︎ Rail (GFB)
Corridor
Metropolitan
Rural
Tonne-km(billion) 140
120
100
80
60
40
20
General
freight
systems
11
49
28
96
0.5
76
Source: Stellenbosch University. 2015. Logistics Barometer South
Africa 2015. www.sun.ac.za/logisticsbarometer
General freight system tonne-
kilometres by typology

15. n Production
n Imports
n Consumption
n Exports
Currentsupply
Futuresupply
(30years)
Currentdemand
Futuredemand
(30years)
447
1 535
201
560
189
1 793
69
692
Source: Stellenbosch University. 2015. Logistics Barometer South
Africa 2015. www.sun.ac.za/logisticsbarometer
Freight supply and demand
– current and long-term view
Tonnes(million)
2 000
1 750
1 500
1 250
1 000
750
500
250
0