Home prices have continued their upward climb, as evidenced by the latest report from S&P/Case-Shiller. However, the most recent data show a sequential deceleration in aggregate price increases. While there are several variables that influence the price trajectory of housing, the recent spike in borrowing rates—in anticipation of tapering by the US Federal Reserve—appears to be a primary driver. In this paper, we discuss the key variables, in addition to housing price indices, that contribute to create a more complete assessment of the fundamentals for a further price recovery.
Mortgage Closing Costs Rising - The Real Estate Report August/SeptemberAMSI, San Francisco
The Real Estate Report August/September, local market trends San Francisco: "Mortgage Closing Costs Rising" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer
The purpose of this video is to provide an overview of the recent events and trends that have transpired in the residential housing environment, and to provide an overview of the home-price level for a select group of cities that make up the Adkins 60-City Home Price Index. This analysis is for the second quarter of 2015.
Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique a Reinh...Marco Garoffolo
Proprio in questi giorni abbiamo avuto una prova, decisiva, dell'utilità della non-cooperazione con la ragion di Stato. Ne ha riferito Paul Krugman, in un articolo che dichiara defunta, almeno nelle accademie, l'Austerità (Repubblica, 27 aprile). È un dogma cui l'Europa è appesa da anni: se non cresciamo economicamente, è solo perché gli Stati sono troppo indebitati. A sfatare l'assioma: tre economisti non ortodossi dell'università di Massachusetts-Amherst (i professori Michael Ash e Robert Pollin, lo studente di dottorato Thomas Herndon) che hanno scoperto errori di computer (l'errore Excel) commessi nel 2010 dai due economisti di Harvard, Kenneth Rogoff e Carmen Reinhart. Il dogma ("i Paesi che si indebitano oltre il 90 per cento del Pil non possono crescere") è in pezzi. http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/working_papers/working_papers_301-350/WP322.pdf
The Wright Report is perfect bathroom reading to help understand local real estate. Well, maybe for some. This is a very detailed report to unpack the housing market in Northern California as well as other national economic influences. What is making value move? And where have values been moving? Compiled by Real Estate Broker Joel Wright (and yours truly contributed a couple pages). Counties covered include: Sacramento, Placer, Yolo, El Dorado & San Joaquin.
Median Home Price Stays Over $1MM - July/August Real Estate ReportAMSI, San Francisco
The Robb Fleischer’s Real Estate Report – Local Market Trends San Francisco includes monthly updates regarding mortgage rates, market statistics, sales momentum, pricing momentum, trends at a glance, foreclosure statistics and more.
Mortgage Closing Costs Rising - The Real Estate Report August/SeptemberAMSI, San Francisco
The Real Estate Report August/September, local market trends San Francisco: "Mortgage Closing Costs Rising" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer
The purpose of this video is to provide an overview of the recent events and trends that have transpired in the residential housing environment, and to provide an overview of the home-price level for a select group of cities that make up the Adkins 60-City Home Price Index. This analysis is for the second quarter of 2015.
Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique a Reinh...Marco Garoffolo
Proprio in questi giorni abbiamo avuto una prova, decisiva, dell'utilità della non-cooperazione con la ragion di Stato. Ne ha riferito Paul Krugman, in un articolo che dichiara defunta, almeno nelle accademie, l'Austerità (Repubblica, 27 aprile). È un dogma cui l'Europa è appesa da anni: se non cresciamo economicamente, è solo perché gli Stati sono troppo indebitati. A sfatare l'assioma: tre economisti non ortodossi dell'università di Massachusetts-Amherst (i professori Michael Ash e Robert Pollin, lo studente di dottorato Thomas Herndon) che hanno scoperto errori di computer (l'errore Excel) commessi nel 2010 dai due economisti di Harvard, Kenneth Rogoff e Carmen Reinhart. Il dogma ("i Paesi che si indebitano oltre il 90 per cento del Pil non possono crescere") è in pezzi. http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/working_papers/working_papers_301-350/WP322.pdf
The Wright Report is perfect bathroom reading to help understand local real estate. Well, maybe for some. This is a very detailed report to unpack the housing market in Northern California as well as other national economic influences. What is making value move? And where have values been moving? Compiled by Real Estate Broker Joel Wright (and yours truly contributed a couple pages). Counties covered include: Sacramento, Placer, Yolo, El Dorado & San Joaquin.
Median Home Price Stays Over $1MM - July/August Real Estate ReportAMSI, San Francisco
The Robb Fleischer’s Real Estate Report – Local Market Trends San Francisco includes monthly updates regarding mortgage rates, market statistics, sales momentum, pricing momentum, trends at a glance, foreclosure statistics and more.
Jumbo Loans Cheaper Than Conforming Loans - The Real Estate Report September/...AMSI, San Francisco
The Real Estate Report September/October, local market trends San Francisco: "Jumbo Loans Cheaper Than Conforming Loans" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer
Annie Williams Market Trends March-April 2015Jon Weaver
As we’ve mentioned many times, inventory of single-family, re-sale homes, condos and rentals in San Francisco is very low. Fortunately, there are a slew of new buildings in
some stage of planning or construction. At last count, we identified 23 new condo projects around the city. There have been or will shortly be 2,498 new condo/loft units on the market. There are 141 more units in the proposal stage.
This should alleviate some of the pricing pressure in San Francisco.
C.A.R’s 2014 Housing Forecast - The Real Estate Report December/JanuaryAMSI, San Francisco
The Real Estate Report December/January, local market trends San Francisco: "C.A.R’s 2014 Housing Forecast" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Nov-Dec 2016Annie Williams
Home sales expected to edge up slightly in 2017, while prices post slowest gain in six years.
Following a dip in home sales in 2016, California’s housing market will post a nominal increase in 2017, as supply shortages and affordability constraints hamper market activity, according to the "2017 California Housing Market Forecast," released today by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® (C.A.R.).
The C.A.R. forecast sees a modest increase in existing home sales of 1.4 percent next year to reach 413,000 units, up slightly from the projected 2016 sales figure of 407,300 homes sold. Sales in 2016 also will be virtually flat at 407,300 existing, single-family home sales, compared with the 408,800 pace of homes sold in 2015.
San Francisco Prices Set Record Highs in 2013 - The Real Estate Report Januar...AMSI, San Francisco
The Real Estate Report January/February, local market trends San Francisco: "San Francisco Prices Set Record Highs in 2013" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - June 2020Jon Weaver
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes tanked, again, in May compared to last year. Home sales were down 56.5%. There were 104 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214. We expect home sales to continue dropping for the next two months.
Jumbo Loans Cheaper Than Conforming Loans - The Real Estate Report September/...AMSI, San Francisco
The Real Estate Report September/October, local market trends San Francisco: "Jumbo Loans Cheaper Than Conforming Loans" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer
Annie Williams Market Trends March-April 2015Jon Weaver
As we’ve mentioned many times, inventory of single-family, re-sale homes, condos and rentals in San Francisco is very low. Fortunately, there are a slew of new buildings in
some stage of planning or construction. At last count, we identified 23 new condo projects around the city. There have been or will shortly be 2,498 new condo/loft units on the market. There are 141 more units in the proposal stage.
This should alleviate some of the pricing pressure in San Francisco.
C.A.R’s 2014 Housing Forecast - The Real Estate Report December/JanuaryAMSI, San Francisco
The Real Estate Report December/January, local market trends San Francisco: "C.A.R’s 2014 Housing Forecast" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Nov-Dec 2016Annie Williams
Home sales expected to edge up slightly in 2017, while prices post slowest gain in six years.
Following a dip in home sales in 2016, California’s housing market will post a nominal increase in 2017, as supply shortages and affordability constraints hamper market activity, according to the "2017 California Housing Market Forecast," released today by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® (C.A.R.).
The C.A.R. forecast sees a modest increase in existing home sales of 1.4 percent next year to reach 413,000 units, up slightly from the projected 2016 sales figure of 407,300 homes sold. Sales in 2016 also will be virtually flat at 407,300 existing, single-family home sales, compared with the 408,800 pace of homes sold in 2015.
San Francisco Prices Set Record Highs in 2013 - The Real Estate Report Januar...AMSI, San Francisco
The Real Estate Report January/February, local market trends San Francisco: "San Francisco Prices Set Record Highs in 2013" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - June 2020Jon Weaver
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes tanked, again, in May compared to last year. Home sales were down 56.5%. There were 104 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214. We expect home sales to continue dropping for the next two months.
In this presentation, I explore the concept of Activity and CHAT (Cultural-Historical Activity Theory) in the context of The Little Red Hen, then apply it to my doctoral research to understand how an augmented reality game mediates the cultural models of campers at a traditional woods camp.
the IBM Design Thinking methodology is changing the way IBM approaching software design.
Changing a culture of a company that is 104 year old and have about 480,000 employs worldwide and cross culture is complex, yet rewording process. In the talk I’ll explain the IBM Design Thinking methodology, and how we work toward move our focus to the users in an enterprise oriented technology company.
We often optimize our software for performance, but what also optimizing our development teams for happiness? Take a look at how the tools you choose for your development team can impact developer happiness, and learn how to keep your teams happier and more productive.
*The graph on slide 3 is fabricated data, because studies also show that people are more likely to believe statements accompanied by scientific data.*
The Robb Fleischer’s Real Estate Report – Local Market Trends San Francisco includes monthly updates regarding mortgage rates, market statistics, sales momentum, pricing momentum, trends at a glance, foreclosure statistics and more.
Annie Williams Market Trends April-May 2015Jon Weaver
After four straight months of year-over-year sales declines, sales of single-family, re-sale homes jumped 6.5% last month. Condo/loft sales, on the other hand, were down
year-over-year, albeit by only 1.6%. Compare that to the previous three out of four months when sales were down by double-digits. Prices of homes and condo/lofts also popped last month, rising by double-digit figures. See below for the full details.
The Institute for Luxury Home Marketing report provides an in-depth look at the top residential markets across the United States and Canada. Within the individual markets, you will find established luxury benchmark prices and detailed survey of luxury active and sold properties designed to showcase current market status and recent trends. The national report illustrates a compilation of the top North American markets to review overall standards and trends. Questions addressed are whether if prices will fall and where are the most likely opportunities for luxury buyers exist. The art of selling and buying in this market needs a critical and analytical approach. Understanding the realities of setting expectations accordingly will ensure that goals are achieved.
**Contact Lynne MacFarlane, a member of the Institute of Luxury Home Marketing today to discuss your market home strategy and analysis.
LYNNE MACFARLANE, MCDM, SRS, SRES | Realtor Intero Los Altos & Carmel, CA
Prof Fiduciary Assoc of CA Silicon Valley affiliate member.
Call
831-346-2743 for an appt.
LMACFARLANE@INTERO.COM
www.LynneMacFarlane.com
Opportunity Knocks
The biggest impacts are more likely to be felt at the local market level and will depend on the current
demand profile of their buyers against ongoing supply. So, expect to hear some conflicting analysis
because all markets are not equal and results from a North American perspective could look very
different at the grassroots level.
While there will be much debate about how things will play out over the next year, like all markets,
there is always an opportunity for those who are ready. There are niches in every market: whether
moving to a location that affords a better cost of living, recognizing luxury pockets or property types
that are next in the demand cycle, or simply biding one’s time in anticipation of finding a property
that is below market value.
Regardless of an affluent buyer’s financial profile, there is still significant confidence in the luxury
real estate market and a belief in the stability of owning property. Even if some buyers previously
dropped out of the real estate game due to fatigue, frustration, or even hesitation during 2023, in
2024 they may be primed to return as inventory levels improve.
We highly recommend working with a luxury property specialist during this unconventional market
to ascertain what is truly happening in your local marketplace. The art of selling and buying in this
market needs a critical and analytical approach; understanding the realities and setting expectations
accordingly will ensure that goals are achieved.
The Robb Fleischer’s Real Estate Report – Local Market Trends San Francisco includes monthly updates regarding mortgage rates, market statistics, sales momentum, pricing momentum, trends at a glance, foreclosure statistics and more.
My latest update on macroeconomic trend in the United States following our semi annual conference at the Bristol Hotel in May 2014. Covers real estate, retail sales, employment and monetary policy
Things to Consider When Buying a Home - Summer 2023 EditionTom Blefko
Buying a new home can be a complicated process. This guide will inform you and answer many of your questions about buying a home in the Summer of 2023.
Powerpoint Presentation on local and national economic data for residential builders. Presented at the Cape Fear/Wilmington Builders\' Association Meeting.
Residential Real Estate market update covering the Macro Economy and its influence on local real estate markets. Designed to assist investors to make informed decision, and move forward with confidence.
Zillow Sued Over Zestimates - June/July Real Estate ReportAMSI, San Francisco
The Robb Fleischer’s Real Estate Report – Local Market Trends San Francisco includes monthly updates regarding mortgage rates, market statistics, sales momentum, pricing momentum, trends at a glance, foreclosure statistics and more.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
Exploring Abhay Bhutada’s Views After Poonawalla Fincorp’s Collaboration With...beulahfernandes8
The financial landscape in India has witnessed a significant development with the recent collaboration between Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank.
The launch of the co-branded credit card, the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card, marks a major milestone for both entities.
This strategic move aims to redefine and elevate the banking experience for customers.
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)
Lazard Investment Research: Update on the Improving Foundations of US House Prices (September 2013)
1. Investment Research
Update on the Improving Foundations of
US House Prices (September 2013)
Ronald Temple, CFA, Managing Director, Portfolio Manager/Analyst
Home prices have continued their upward climb, as evidenced by the latest report from S&P/Case-Shiller. However,
the most recent data show a sequential deceleration in aggregate price increases. While there are several variables
that influence the price trajectory of housing, the recent spike in borrowing rates—in anticipation of tapering by the
US Federal Reserve—appears to be a primary driver. In this paper, we discuss the key variables, in addition to housing
price indices, that contribute to create a more complete assessment of the fundamentals for a further price recovery.
2. 2
The most recent house price reports from S&P/Case-Shiller in
September (based on data from May through July 2013) were in
line with our previous expectations. Prices in all cities in the S&P/
Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index (the 20-City
Index) have increased from their levels 1, 3, 6, and 12 months ago.
The 20-City Index was up 21.2% from the low in March 2012 and
up 12.4% from a year ago. The report also showed a third sequential
deceleration of price increases in aggregate. This reflects the diverging
patterns we have seen across the cities in the index. Exhibit 1 shows
the extent of the decline in house prices during the bust (the change
from the high reached up until December 2008) and then shows what
percentage of the decline has been recouped. The highlights we would
point to include:
• Dallas and Denver are outliers on two counts: 1) Prices did not
decline as much in the downturn (i.e., the period from mid-2006
to early 2009) and 2) they have now reached new highs. To be fair,
in the housing bubble, neither Dallas nor Denver participated fully
on the upside so their relative resilience should not be a surprise.
As an example, prices in Dallas rose at an annualized pace of only
3% from the beginning of 2000 to the bubble peak in mid-2007.
This contrasts with an average annualized increase of 14% for Las
Vegas until its peak in the fall of 2006 and the 20-City Index which
increased approximately 12% annualized through August 2006. The
magnitude might not sound great, but the cumulative increase for
Dallas from 2000 to 2007 was 26% versus Las Vegas where prices
increased 134%.
• Losing cities continue to suffer: We have highlighted in the past
that some cities in “sand states” that saw the sharpest declines in
(%)
150
Proportion Recovered
Max–Min Decline
100
50
0
Dallas
Boston
San Francisco
Denver
Seattle
Portland
Atlanta
Charlotte
San Diego
Detroit
Washington, DC
Minneapolis
-100
Miami
New York
Tampa
Phoenix
-50
Chicago
Composite-20
Los Angeles
Cleveland
Through the last quarter much of the investor debate revolved around
the impact and timing for tapering of large scale asset purchases by the
Fed. While the central bank ultimately decided to maintain the same
level of monetary stimulus and asset purchases in its September meeting, the markets raised the cost of financing substantially for home
buyers in advance of the meeting. However, the impact of tapering on
housing demand has been a bit difficult for many to understand as the
varying timing lags in the range of housing data are not well known.
In this update, we will provide perspective on the most recent data
and how to interpret incoming information as higher mortgage rates
gradually impact housing demand and prices.
Exhibit 1
Housing Price Declines and Recovery from Low
Las Vegas
Home prices continued to surge through the second quarter of 2013
according to the most recent reports. At the same time, mortgage rates
have increased by about 130 basis points since the lows reached in
May 2013 when the market began to believe the US Federal Reserve
(the Fed) would begin tapering monetary stimulus in the near future.
An increase of this magnitude translates into an increase in the cost of
buying a home of approximately 17%. Given the combined effect of
higher financing costs, the 21% increase in national home prices since
the end of 2011/early 2012, and seasonal patterns, we expect monthon-month price increases to decelerate substantially in the fourth
quarter.1 Importantly, a decrease in sequential price increases will
greatly reduce the number of mortgage borrowers moving back into
positive equity. To the extent home prices stop increasing altogether on
a sequential basis—a reasonable prospect—we could also see consumer
confidence weakened as homeowners would become less optimistic
regarding the balance sheet recovery they have enjoyed of late.
As of 24 September 2013
Source: Standard & Poor’s
Exhibit 2
30-Year Mortgage Rates
(%)
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
Jul 96
Jul 99
Jul 02
Jul 05
Jul 08
Jul 11
Sep 13
As of 17 September 2013
Source: Bloomberg
home prices had also rebounded most strongly. In this note, we
look at the data in a different way. True, the prices have increased a
large amount from the recent lows, but when approached in terms
of how much of the previous decline has been recouped we get a
slightly less encouraging view. In Exhibit 1, one can see that six of
the twenty cities have regained at least half of the ground they lost
in the downturn. Notably, San Francisco was among the cities with
the largest decline but it is also among the strongest recoveries. On
the other extreme, four cities have regained less than 25% of the
decline. Three of these four cities were among the hardest hit with
declines ranging from 48% to 62% from peak to cycle trough.
The key data points that we are watching beyond the 20-City Index
include (in order of importance):
1. Mortgage borrowing rates, as illustrated in Exhibit 2: A 100 basis
point increase in mortgage rates from 3.5% equates to a monthly
payment increase of approximately 13%. The rise from the recent
3. 3
low of 3.45% in early May to almost 4.75% by mid-September
implies a 17% increase in the cost of financing the same home.
2. Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Loan Applications for
Purchase Index (the Loan Applications Index), as shown in Exhibit
3: This index measures the volume of applications to buy a home
(new or existing). By excluding refinancing volume, we can get
a clearer picture of future closings on home purchases. We have
been consistently disappointed with the lack of improvement in
this index. Even when mortgage rates were at record lows in early
May, the index climbed only to a level well below the activity seen
one year earlier when rates were at 5%. Perhaps the lesson is that
mortgage rates are less important to borrowing activity than are
other factors such as the ability to accumulate a down payment and
employment growth. Regardless of the driver, we will continue
watching this index as a divergence from our expectations could
mean that economic growth substantially trumps borrowing rates.
If that is the case, we can be more optimistic that the eventual
tapering of monetary stimulus might not impair activity as much as
we currently suspect.
3. New single-family home sales: Closely monitoring this series is a
priority, as it is the most current tangible measure of actual activity.
New home sales are recorded at the time of contract signing rather
than actual purchase closing. As a result, the report tends to reflect
activity with a lag of only one month. The most recent report was
materially disappointing relative to consensus expectations. In our
view, this report reflects the spike in mortgage borrowing rates since
May (see Exhibit 4).
4. National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market
Index (the NAHB Index): The NAHB Index is next in our queue
of key data series to monitor, as it captures a combination of actual
activity and sentiment. As such, we see it as offering positives and
negatives. The positive to this index is that it should reflect demand
for new construction better than other indices as it incorporates
traffic of potential home buyers, as shown by the underlying index
components in Exhibit 5. On the negative side, while we would
expect home builders to be very aware of mortgage rates, they likely
would have a difficult time discerning which potential customers
might be squeezed out of the market by higher financing costs.
Hence we consider this index slightly less predictive of future activity in aggregate (beyond new home construction) than the new
home sales data.
5. Existing single-family home sales: Existing home sales are the least
predictive in our sample of key metrics, as these data generally
reflect a lag of two to three months from the date of a purchase
agreement. This delay results from recording the transactions only
at the actual closing of the purchase, which typically takes a few
months given the time required to obtain a mortgage and arrange
document signings. Nevertheless, we believe it is instructive to
monitor this series even with its drawback of delayed data (see
Exhibit 6).
When we weigh the combined evidence of the previously described
indicators, we conclude that sequential price momentum will decelerate meaningfully through year end. However, the data also leave
reason to suggest that we may be too pessimistic. The two key data
points that would support a more constructive view on housing,
Exhibit 3
Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Loan Applications
for Purchase Index
(Index, March 1990=100)
500
400
300
200
100
Jul 93
July 96
Jul 99
Jul 02
Jul 05
Jul 08
Jul 11
Aug 13
Jan 08
Jan 11
Jul 13
Jan 11
Aug 13
As of 6 September 2013
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Haver Analytics
Exhibit 4
New Single-Family Home Sales
(Units, thousands)
1600
1250
900
550
200
Jan 93
Jan 96
Jan 99
Jan 02
Jan 05
As of July 2013
Source: US Census Bureau, Haver Analytics
Exhibit 5
Components of the NAHB Housing Market Index
Index
100
75
50
25
0
Jan 93
Jan 96
Jan 99
Jan 02
Jan 05
Jan 08
Sales of New Single-Family Homes Next 6 Months
Sales of New Single-Family Homes
Traffic of Prospective Buyers of New Homes
As of 15 August 2013
Source: NAHB, Haver Analytics
4. 4
that limits how much rates can increase without leading to a reaction from the Fed.
Exhibit 6
Existing Single-Family Home Sales
• Growth in personal income and employment: House price increases
since the cycle lows have been driven by a range of factors including, but not limited to, investor activity, employment growth,
income growth, and record affordability. In the long run, however,
we believe the governing factors for house prices are personal
income growth and financing rates. While this might seem obvious,
sustained patterns of price increases well above or below income
growth in particular tend to lead to large subsequent moves either
down or up in home prices.
(Units, thousands)
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
Jan 93 Jan 96
Jan 99
Jan 02
Jan 05
Jan 08
Jan 11 Jul 13
As of July 2013
Source: National Association of Realtors, Haver Analytics
even against a backdrop of higher borrowing rates, are the Loan
Applications Index (Exhibit 3) and the NAHB Index (Exhibit 5).
The Loan Applications Index seems to imply that activity has not
increased substantially as a result of lower rates, but on a positive
note perhaps might not decrease as much when rates normalize.
The NAHB Index implies that even with a substantial interest rate
increase, actual traffic of prospective buyers to new home sites has continued to improve, albeit flattening slightly in the last observation. We
hope these are the right leading indicators, but on a closer look other
variables will help determine the magnitude of price deceleration,
which we describe next.
• Mortgage rates and a reduction in the Fed’s asset purchase programs
(i.e., tapering): In light of the Fed’s decision to delay tapering, we
might have a retracement in mortgage rates to slightly lower levels.
We recognize that the current rates are not sustainable on a multiyear basis, but we do believe there is a self-governing feedback loop
Conclusion
In summary, we remain constructive on the still young US house
price recovery. We continue to expect substantial divergences across
regions and cities based on local economic conditions and foreclosure
processes, as discussed in our prior updates.2 We also acknowledge that
a range of factors could derail improving consumer confidence. Such
risks include the potential for US military engagement in Syria, the risk
of a debacle around the debt ceiling, or an overly aggressive approach
to tapering by the Fed that could cause an incremental spike in borrowing rates. In spite of these risk factors, we believe the price recovery is
strong enough to endure the headwinds of higher rates, although prices
are likely to rise at a slower pace than our recent experience.
5. 5
Appendix
S&P/Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100)
City
San Francisco
Low Since
December 2008
Date of Low
High Since Inception
(January 1987)
Date of High
Current
Change from Low
(%)
Change from High
(%)
117.7
Mar 09
218.4
May 06
176.9
50.3
-19.0
Detroit
64.5
Apr 11
127.1
Dec 05
90.8
40.8
-28.5
Phoenix
100.2
Sep 11
227.4
Jun 06
139.4
39.1
-38.7
Atlanta
82.5
Mar 12
136.5
Jul 07
111.5
35.1
-18.3
Las Vegas
89.9
Mar 12
234.8
Aug 06
120.6
34.2
-48.6
San Diego
144.4
Apr 09
250.3
Nov 05
188.3
30.4
-24.8
Los Angeles
159.2
May 09
273.9
Sep 06
206.3
29.6
-24.7
Minneapolis
105.8
Mar 11
171.1
Sep 06
134.9
27.6
-21.2
Seattle
129.0
Feb 12
192.3
Jul 07
159.5
23.7
-17.1
Miami
137.0
Apr 11
280.9
Dec 06
169.1
23.4
-39.8
Washington, DC
165.9
Mar 09
251.1
May 06
203.0
22.3
-19.2
Chicago
102.8
Mar 12
168.6
Sep 06
125.7
22.3
-25.5
Tampa
123.9
Feb 12
238.1
Jul 06
151.2
22.0
-36.5
Portland
129.0
Mar 12
186.5
Jul 07
157.3
21.9
-15.7
Denver
120.2
Feb 09
145.6
Jul 13
145.6
21.1
0.0
Dallas
112.3
Feb 09
131.5
Jul 13
131.5
17.1
0.0
-8.6
Charlotte
108.4
Jan 12
135.9
Aug 07
124.2
14.6
Boston
145.8
Mar 09
182.5
Sep 05
167.0
14.5
-8.5
Cleveland
94.2
Feb 12
123.5
Jul 06
106.3
12.8
-13.9
New York
157.4
Mar-12
215.8
Jun-06
171.0
8.6
-20.8
Composite-20
134.1
Mar 12
206.5
Jul 06
162.5
21.2
-21.3
As of 24 September 2013
Data include transactions from May to July 2013.
Source: Standard & Poor’s
Notes
1 Note year-on-year prices will continue to show strong increases in all likelihood as prices have increased over 8% in the last seven months alone. Source: Standard & Poor’s, as of 24
September 2013.
2 Papers available at: http://www.lazardnet.com/investment-research/
Important Information
Published on 4 October 2013.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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