The Real Estate Report January/February, local market trends San Francisco: "San Francisco Prices Set Record Highs in 2013" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer

1. Robb Fleischer
JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2014
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
(415) 447-2009
rfleischer@amsiemail.com
http://www.amsires.com/staff/robb
DRE #01403882
Inside This Issue
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2
> HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2
> FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3
> MOMENTUM CHARTS .......................... 4
The Real Estate Report
local market trends
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
DECEMBER MARKET STATISTICS
The median price for single-family, re-sale homes
rose 12.3% year-over-year.
Nov 13
231
Dec 12
199
$ 975,000
$ 850,000
Av erage Price: $1,355,128
$1,314,983
$1,423,067
Home Sales:
San Francisco Prices Set Record Highs in 2013
Prices of both homes and condos made large gains
in 2013. The median price for homes hit a record
high of $1,060,000 in May and finished the year at
$915,000, a gain of 20.1%. That's $15,000 higher
than the precious record set in 2007.
The median price of condos/lofts beat it's previous
high, also set in 2007, by $45,500. The median
price for condos/lofts was $850,000 last year, a
gain of 15.6%.
Single-family, re-sales home sales rose 0.7% in
2013. This is the fifth year in a row home sales
have been higher than the year before.
Condo/loft sales fell 4.6%.
Click on Annual for the tables and charts.
Dec 13
204
Median Price: $ 954,500
SAN FRANCISCO
SALES MOMENTUM…
Sale/List Price Ratio:
102.9%
107.3%
99.5%
Day s on Market:
41
34
59
Nov 13
274
Dec 12
236
for homes rose 1.4 points to +3.1. Sales
momentum for condos/lofts dropped 2.7 points
to -0.5.
(Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC)
Condo Sales:
PRICING MOMENTUM…
Median Price: $ 750,000 $ 825,500 $ 720,000
for single-family homes was off 1.4 of a point to
Av erage Price: $1,030,846 $ 969,856 $ 866,348
18.7. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts dipped
Sale/List Price Ratio:
102.9%
104.3%
101.0%
0.7 of a point to +13.4.
Day s on Market:
CONDO/LOFT STATISTICS
After reaching an all-time high in October, the
median price for condos/lofts fell for the second
month in a row, dropping 9.1% from November. It
was up 4.2% year-over-year.
Closed sales fell 20.3% year-over-year. There were
188 condos/lofts sold last month. For the year,
condo sales were off 4.6%.
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up 2.5% The sale price to list price ratio stayed over 100%
for the twenty-second month in a row: 102.2%. This
year-over-year. There were 204 homes sold last
is down from the recent peak of 106.4% in June.
month. Home sales were up 0.7% for the year.
The sales price to list price ratio has been over
100% for twenty-one of the past twenty-two
months. It was 102.9%.
San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND
8
9
0
1
2
3
-30.0%
-40.0%
Dec 13
188
© 2014 rereport.com
Robb Fleischer | rfleischer@amsiemail.com | (415) 447-2009
42
41
62

2. The Real Estate Report
MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK
Jan 3, 2014 -- The upward trend for mortgage rates
which began following the October employment
report some eight weeks ago has continued into the
first week of the new year.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
10-13
07-13
04-13
01-13
10-12
07-12
04-12
01-12
10-11
07-11
04-11
01-11
10-10
07-10
04-10
01-10
10-09
07-09
04-09
01-09
10-08
07-08
04-08
01-08
10-07
07-07
04-07
01-07
10-06
07-06
04-06
01-06
3.0%
HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our
weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixedrate mortgages again saw another increased of four
basis points (0.04%) to rise to 4.64%, its highest
figure since last September and slowly closing in on
a multi-year high. The FRMI's 15-year companion
saw a rise of just three basis points (0.03%) from the
prior week's value, increasing to 3.74%. The popular
FHA-backed 30-year FRM also moved upward by
another three basis points to 4.27% for the week,
while the overall 5/1 Hybrid ARM added six
hundredths of a percentage point (0.06%) to rise to
3.27%.
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
The chart above shows the
National monthly average for
30-year fixed rate mortgages
as compiled by HSH.com. The
average includes mortgages of
all sizes, including conforming,
"expanded conforming," and
jumbo.
Construction spending moved a full 1 percent higher
in November over October. Solid increases in
spending for residential projects (up 1.9 percent) and
commercial buildings (up 2.7 percent) more than
overcame a decline in spending on public buildings,
roads and bridges and such. Although more erratic
earlier in 2013, outlays for new projects have been
good over the last three months, and if more
8.0%
commercial spending continues to join residential
projects we will have a very active real estate market
in 2014 and all of the economic lift it provides.
The quiet of the holiday season will pass us by next
week, when the pace of business and life again
quickens. If everything goes as planned, all
indications are that we should expect a performing
economy with somewhat fewer headwinds. We took
a few minutes to consider the issues we expect to
face in and around the mortgage and real estate
markets over the next year in Nine Factors for '14,
our outlook piece for the coming year.
Next week, we'll get more news about how we
finished 2013, with the ISM's non-manufacturing
report, minutes from the December Fed's meeting
where they decided to start to taper QE purchases
(and perhaps some clues about future moves),
measure of consumer credit growth, wholesale
inventory changes and of course, the employment
report for December. Mortgage rates have been
ticking higher, and probably will do so again; strength
(or relative lack thereof) in the employment report will
determine by how much rates will move, but we
expect perhaps another five or six basis points at
most.
San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
$1,500
350
$1,300
300
250
$1,100
200
$900
150
$700
100
$500
50
$300
0
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FM
AMJ JASOND1 FM
AMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND
8
9
0
1
2
3
Ave
Med
© 2014 rereport.com
Units
December Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices
Unit
Yearly Change
Median
Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average
San Francisco $ 954,500 $1,355,128
204
41 102.9% 12.3%
-4.8%
Monthly Change
Sales Median Average
2.5%
-2.1%
3.1%
Sales
-11.7%
D1: Northw est $1,225,000
$1,510,272
18
27 107.4%
21.3%
2.1%
28.6%
-10.7%
-3.3%
-10.0%
D2: Central West $ 830,000
$ 916,870
38
36 105.3%
5.7%
13.8%
26.7%
-4.9%
2.5%
-20.8%
D3: Southw est $ 850,000
$ 894,117
15
49 103.9%
38.2%
37.3%
15.4%
21.1%
27.2%
7.1%
D4: Tw in Peaks $1,140,000
$1,157,839
34
52 104.1%
6.8%
-1.9%
6.3%
8.1%
-5.7%
9.7%
D5: Central $1,750,000
$1,942,880
25
28 106.0%
15.3%
22.6%
-16.7%
12.9%
1.3%
-24.2%
D6: Central North $1,488,000
$1,567,667
3
45 101.5%
-16.1%
-9.9%
-50.0%
-31.7%
-33.5%
-50.0%
D7: North $3,825,000
$4,417,308
13
66
-30.5%
-39.1%
0.0%
3.7%
2.2%
30.0%
D8: Northeast $2,500,000
$2,600,000
3
126
87.7% 136.4%
145.9%
50.0%
n/a
n/a
n/a
94.5%
D9: Central East $1,152,000
Page 2
$1,200,941
17
28 110.5%
44.0%
39.5%
6.3%
-10.4%
-6.9%
-32.0%
D10: Southeast $ 592,500
$ 598,047
38
38 108.1%
9.3%
17.4%
-5.0%
-2.5%
-8.6%
-13.6%

3. San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND
-10.0% 8
9
0
1
2
3
-20.0%
-30.0%
© 2014 rereport.com
FORECLOSURE STATISTICS
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure
process, in San Francisco plunged 75% in November
from October. Year-over-year, notices were down
81.6%. There were 16 notices in November.
Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank
will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an
investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the
property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go
back to the bank.
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an
auction, and serve as the homeowner's final notice
before sale, dropped 56.8% from October, and they
were down 81.6% year-over-year. There were 19.
There were 34 sales cancelled last month.
Only six homes went back to the bank in November.
There are currently 117 properties scheduled for sale.
With the recent surge in prices, many of them will
probably be cancelled.
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are
only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be
cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan
modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal
requirement to re-file the notice after extended
postponements.
The total number of properties owned by the banks was
down 43.4% year-over-year. The banks now own
approximately 253 properties in the city.
San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
$1,100
$1,000
$900
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
350
300
Table Definitions
_______________
250
Median Price
200
The price at which 50% of
prices were higher and
50%were lower.
150
100
50
0 FM
AMJ JASOND0 FM
AMJ JASOND1 FM
AMJ JASOND1 FM
AMJ JASOND1 FM
AMJ JASOND1 FM
AMJ JASOND
8
9
0
1
2
3
Ave
Med
Average Price
0
Add all prices and divide by the
number of sales.
© 2014 rereport.com
Units
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
Prices
Unit
SP/LP
Sales price to list price ratio or
the price paid for the property
divided by the asking price.
December Sales Statistics
Yearly Change
Monthly Change
Median
Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average
San Francisco $ 750,000 $1,030,846
188
42 102.9%
4.2%
19.0%
Sales Median Average
-20.3%
-9.1%
6.3%
Sales
-31.4%
DOI
Days of Inventory, or how many
days it would take to sell all the
property for sale at the current
rate of sales.
D1: Northw est $ 760,000
$ 894,333
9
48
99.0%
11.0%
24.6%
-25.0%
-2.6%
7.7%
-40.0%
D2: Central West $ 650,000
$ 618,333
3
37 110.5%
-23.3%
-30.5%
-25.0%
10.2%
-2.1%
-57.1%
D3: Southw est $ 430,000
$ 546,667
3
32 114.1%
n/a
n/a
n/a
-13.1%
10.4%
50.0%
D4: Tw in Peaks $ 375,000
$ 375,000
1
59 100.0%
-27.2%
-19.8%
-80.0%
-24.6%
-20.2%
-87.5%
Pend
-62.5%
Property under contract to sell
that hasn’t closed escrow.
D5: Central $ 850,000
$1,112,933
15
42 107.6%
16.4%
43.2%
-48.3%
-14.1%
8.3%
D6: Central North $ 629,000
$ 676,407
27
37 104.9%
-20.7%
-16.8%
50.0%
-23.8%
-18.1%
8.0%
D7: North $1,100,000
$1,568,938
16
43 105.0%
18.3%
50.4%
-11.1%
-8.3%
17.7%
-50.0%
Inven
D8: Northeast $ 855,000
$1,357,930
41
41 101.8%
20.1%
39.0%
20.6%
32.6%
55.5%
13.9%
D9: Central East $ 794,000
$ 953,592
65
43 101.6%
21.6%
2.0%
8.3%
-4.3%
-6.2%
-38.1%
D10: Southeast $ 499,500
$ 496,875
4
86 101.1%
51.4%
59.4%
33.3% 227.8%
92.2%
33.3%
Number of properties actively
for sale as of the last day of the
month.

4. THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
San Francisco
Robb Fleischer
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Go online to see the full report
with the district by district breakdown:
HTTP://WWW.AMSIRES.COM/STAFF/ROBB
San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
AMJ JASOND0 FM
AMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FM
AMJ JASOND1 FM
AMJ JASOND
-5.0 0 FM
8
9
0
1
2
3
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
-25.0
© 2014 rereport.com
Sales
Pricing
San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Sales Momentum
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FM
AMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FM
AMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FM
AMJ JASOND
8
9
0
1
2
3
-30.0
-40.0
-50.0
Sales
Pricing
© 2014 rereport.com
The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.