The document summarizes Lewis Larsen's past research on macroeconomics, technology, and history that was published in Barron's magazine in the 1980s and 1990s. It discusses how many of Larsen's predictions from that time period ended up being accurate, such as continued economic struggles for Japan and the boom of the US tech sector. It also introduces Larsen's more recent research on low-energy nuclear reactions and their potential to enable a new "Golden Age" if successfully commercialized as a clean energy source.
Federal Reserve White Paper on ManufacturingDavid Crace
Resource document on the manufacturing industry over the last 20 years. Very insightful perspective, facts and figures on the impact of offshoring, efficiency gains, etc.
Lewis Larsen-Forecasting Track Record re 1980s Barrons Articles by Jon Laing-...Lewis Larsen
Analysis of Larsen forecasting track record with respect to future prognostications published in 1980s Barron's magazine articles written by financial journalist Jon Laing.
Future leaders will succeed by being entrepreneurial and by rethinking the balance between financial and social goals. The developed world stands at the cusp of a major transformation unlike anything experienced since the Gilded Age. An examination of the Gilded Age offers two lessons for the coming disruption. First, managers must become entrepreneurial again: Number-crunching computers will replace number-crunching managers. Second, the new generation of managers must address the social challenges of the emerging disruption. Unlike the entrepreneurs of the Gilded Age, they should incorporate a social mission into their definition of business success, rather than making philanthropic gestures following the achievement of success.
A follow-up to Eisenhower's prophetic 1961 address. If you like it, you can buy the slightly more convenient iBooks version for $0.99: https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/ikes-nightmare/id904716725?mt=11
Edu 657 Education Specialist-snaptutorial.comrobertlesew65
For more classes visit
www.snaptutorial.com
EDU 657 Week 1 Colonial Higher Education, 1636-1784
EDU 657 Week 1 DQ 1 Colleges in the Colonial Era
EDU 657 Week 1 DQ 2 Colonial Revival Colleges
EDU 657 Week 1 Reflective Journal
EDU 657 Week 2 DQ 1 Creating the American Way
EDU 657 Week 2 DQ 2 Resilience in American Higher Education
EDU 657 Week 2 Higher Education, 1785-1890
EDU 657 Week 3 DQ 1 Captains of Industry
EDU 657 Week 3 DQ 2 America Goes to College
EDU 657 Exceptional Education / snaptutorial.comdonaldzs113
For more classes visit
www.snaptutorial.com
EDU 657 Week 1 Colonial Higher Education, 1636-1784
EDU 657 Week 1 DQ 1 Colleges in the Colonial Era
EDU 657 Week 1 DQ 2 Colonial Revival Colleges
Regional Differences in Innovation and Economic PerformanceRyan MacNeil
My paper from the 2011 Atlantic Schools of Business conference:
Innovation is a key mechanism for improving economic productivity. The literature suggests approaches to innovation are socially embedded, and protean industrial cultures outperform autarkic ones. This study reports on differences in innovation culture across Canada’s provincial ICT industries, and the impact of those differences on employment growth and decline.
The structuralist revenge: economic complexity as an important dimension to e...FGV Brazil
This working paper brings elements from the economic complexity literature to the discussions of the structuralist tradition on the central role of manufacturing and productive sophistication to economic growth. Using data provided by the Atlas of Economic Complexity this study sought to verify if countries’ complexity is important to explain convergence and divergence among poor and rich countries and, if so, which are the countries that will be able to reduce the income gap compared to developed countries. The econometric analysis revealed that exports and production complexity is significant to explain convergence and divergence among countries.
Authors: Autor
Gala, Paulo
Rocha, Igor
Magacho, Guilherme
FGV's Sao Paulo School of Economics (EESP)
The institution economics became a predominant analytical perspective for developmental national experiences. The economic success or failure has been predominantly explained by the role played by institutions. This approach has particularly been applied to the national experiences where natural resources are abundant and form their main source of exports. Irrespective of this structural dimension, so follows the argument, countries can escape from the “commodity trap” associated to this resource endowment if good institutions can transform this natural asset in an opportunity to foster investment and spread development to other areas and sectors. In these analyses the good economic institutions are normally considered the set of institutions that were supposed to be predominant in developed market economies. This paper considers critically this analysis building its main arguments in two steps. It will be argued that the consolidation of private interests on production of natural resource limit their use for general development economic purpose but it will be argued also that this possibility exists in oil and gas and other strategic mineral raw material when by geopolitical reasons a national vested interest is formed as predominant economic power. Nevertheless this requires an encompassing industrial policy. These arguments will be illuminated by comparisons between Russia, and Venezuela.
Edu 657 Education Organization / snaptutorial.comBaileya96
For more classes visit
www.snaptutorial.com
EDU 657 Week 1 Colonial Higher Education, 1636-1784
EDU 657 Week 1 DQ 1 Colleges in the Colonial Era
EDU 657 Week 1 DQ 2 Colonial Revival Colleges
EDU 657 Week 1 Reflective Journal
Federal Reserve White Paper on ManufacturingDavid Crace
Resource document on the manufacturing industry over the last 20 years. Very insightful perspective, facts and figures on the impact of offshoring, efficiency gains, etc.
Lewis Larsen-Forecasting Track Record re 1980s Barrons Articles by Jon Laing-...Lewis Larsen
Analysis of Larsen forecasting track record with respect to future prognostications published in 1980s Barron's magazine articles written by financial journalist Jon Laing.
Future leaders will succeed by being entrepreneurial and by rethinking the balance between financial and social goals. The developed world stands at the cusp of a major transformation unlike anything experienced since the Gilded Age. An examination of the Gilded Age offers two lessons for the coming disruption. First, managers must become entrepreneurial again: Number-crunching computers will replace number-crunching managers. Second, the new generation of managers must address the social challenges of the emerging disruption. Unlike the entrepreneurs of the Gilded Age, they should incorporate a social mission into their definition of business success, rather than making philanthropic gestures following the achievement of success.
A follow-up to Eisenhower's prophetic 1961 address. If you like it, you can buy the slightly more convenient iBooks version for $0.99: https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/ikes-nightmare/id904716725?mt=11
Edu 657 Education Specialist-snaptutorial.comrobertlesew65
For more classes visit
www.snaptutorial.com
EDU 657 Week 1 Colonial Higher Education, 1636-1784
EDU 657 Week 1 DQ 1 Colleges in the Colonial Era
EDU 657 Week 1 DQ 2 Colonial Revival Colleges
EDU 657 Week 1 Reflective Journal
EDU 657 Week 2 DQ 1 Creating the American Way
EDU 657 Week 2 DQ 2 Resilience in American Higher Education
EDU 657 Week 2 Higher Education, 1785-1890
EDU 657 Week 3 DQ 1 Captains of Industry
EDU 657 Week 3 DQ 2 America Goes to College
EDU 657 Exceptional Education / snaptutorial.comdonaldzs113
For more classes visit
www.snaptutorial.com
EDU 657 Week 1 Colonial Higher Education, 1636-1784
EDU 657 Week 1 DQ 1 Colleges in the Colonial Era
EDU 657 Week 1 DQ 2 Colonial Revival Colleges
Regional Differences in Innovation and Economic PerformanceRyan MacNeil
My paper from the 2011 Atlantic Schools of Business conference:
Innovation is a key mechanism for improving economic productivity. The literature suggests approaches to innovation are socially embedded, and protean industrial cultures outperform autarkic ones. This study reports on differences in innovation culture across Canada’s provincial ICT industries, and the impact of those differences on employment growth and decline.
The structuralist revenge: economic complexity as an important dimension to e...FGV Brazil
This working paper brings elements from the economic complexity literature to the discussions of the structuralist tradition on the central role of manufacturing and productive sophistication to economic growth. Using data provided by the Atlas of Economic Complexity this study sought to verify if countries’ complexity is important to explain convergence and divergence among poor and rich countries and, if so, which are the countries that will be able to reduce the income gap compared to developed countries. The econometric analysis revealed that exports and production complexity is significant to explain convergence and divergence among countries.
Authors: Autor
Gala, Paulo
Rocha, Igor
Magacho, Guilherme
FGV's Sao Paulo School of Economics (EESP)
The institution economics became a predominant analytical perspective for developmental national experiences. The economic success or failure has been predominantly explained by the role played by institutions. This approach has particularly been applied to the national experiences where natural resources are abundant and form their main source of exports. Irrespective of this structural dimension, so follows the argument, countries can escape from the “commodity trap” associated to this resource endowment if good institutions can transform this natural asset in an opportunity to foster investment and spread development to other areas and sectors. In these analyses the good economic institutions are normally considered the set of institutions that were supposed to be predominant in developed market economies. This paper considers critically this analysis building its main arguments in two steps. It will be argued that the consolidation of private interests on production of natural resource limit their use for general development economic purpose but it will be argued also that this possibility exists in oil and gas and other strategic mineral raw material when by geopolitical reasons a national vested interest is formed as predominant economic power. Nevertheless this requires an encompassing industrial policy. These arguments will be illuminated by comparisons between Russia, and Venezuela.
Edu 657 Education Organization / snaptutorial.comBaileya96
For more classes visit
www.snaptutorial.com
EDU 657 Week 1 Colonial Higher Education, 1636-1784
EDU 657 Week 1 DQ 1 Colleges in the Colonial Era
EDU 657 Week 1 DQ 2 Colonial Revival Colleges
EDU 657 Week 1 Reflective Journal
‘With the collapse of Communism, Marx’s contribution to the analysis of culture lost its contemporary significance.’ Discuss.' An analysis of the global Occupy protests in 2011/12 in light of Marxist philosophy.
write an 8-10 page paper citing at least 10 scholarly sources.jameywaughj
write an 8-10 page paper citing at least 10 scholarly sources.
In this assignment, I will be looking for:
A strong thesis.
The various historical arguments, and evidence that you understand them thoroughly.
Good use and incorporation of evidence to make your point.
Clear cohesive, argumentative writing.
Creativity and Critical Thought in your argument. That is, you should use your readings to come up with an argument that is not obvious or derived solely from the readings, but combines the readings in a new way.
2)
ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY
- I expect you to use a mix of scholarly sources including monographs, articles in edited volumes, and journal articles from peer edited scholarly journals (like those on JSTOR); you will need to take advantage of hard copies from the library and online resources.
Ultimately, you will summarize this reading in an eight-item annotated bibliography. Begin the bibliography with a paragraph detailing how you will approach your research question; that is, what is the broader question, what is the aspect of the question that will be your focus, and what do you think your thesis might be. Then include a detailed annotation for each of eight pieces that you have read to this point, including the way that you see that piece fitting into your overall argument. For more on writing an annotated bibliography and examples, see the handout on blackboard.
In this assignment, each annotation should include
Bibliographic information, in Chicago Style
A good description of the reading, including the reading’s
topic
,
argument
,
evidence
.
In order to help you understand the piece in the context of the project you are working on, it should also indicate
how the piece relates
to others that you have read for this topic. Does the author argue against or support another scholar’s conclusions? How do the works differ?
Your evaluation
of the work. Do you think the author presents good evidence for the argument? Do you agree with his or her conclusions? How might this work be useful to your project (or not)?
In addition, I will be looking at the whole assignment for the following:
The
paragraph
telling me how you will approach your argument. This should be in line with the sources you have presented.
Eight Scholarly Secondary Sources.
Variety
in terms of journals, books, and chapters in edited volume.
At least some
newer scholarship
(pieces written after 2000).
Sources that are
appropriate in terms of time and place
. If you are working on Adolf Hitler, a book called
Adolf Hitler and the New Germany
would be great. One called
Dictators through History
is not relevant.
3) PAPER - Finally, write an 8-10 page paper citing at least 10 scholarly sources.
In this assignment, I will be looking for:
A strong thesis.
The various
historical arguments
, and evidence that you understand them thoroughly.
A good
use and incorporation of evidence
to make your point.
Clear cohesive, argumen ...
Institutional variables are the most important factor explaining real convergence. But what are institutions? This paper examines the relationship between institutions and policies, institutions and organisations, and formal and informal institutions. The concept of propelling and stabilizing institutions is introduced and used to explain differences in real convergence.
Authored by: Leszek Balcerowicz
Published in 2007
Warfare is the quintessential government activity. As a rule, a national government that is unprepared to defend itself against armed attackers cannot expect to retain control of its territory, resident population, and other resources.
report being 2 ½ to 4 single spaced pages in length—one inch m.docxAASTHA76
report being 2 ½ to 4 single spaced pages in length—one inch margins on each side and no larger than 12-point font) to fulfill the writing requirement for the course. Referee reports are not reaction papers. They are your honest and thorough assessment of the scholarly value of the paper in question. By this stage in your education you should be able to evaluate scholarship critically and offer a well-justified assessment of the research of others. Your report you will need to show that you understand the author’s paper and that you understand how it fits into the literature. Most important, you will need to draw on your knowledge of economics, econometrics and the related literature to assess the value of the paper. In doing so you need to point out how the paper can be improved and/or extended. If you are not convinced by an argument in the paper, explain why. If something is confusing, point it out. If the author does not properly summarize the work of others, point that out as well. It is fine to be critical (and you are expected to be), but you should aim to be constructive above all. What could the author do to make that research more convincing? What could reasonably be done to improve the paper? No research is perfect, and pointing out ways in which it could be improved is an important part of scientific inquiry.
referee reports contain three sections. (1) The first is a brief paragraph that says, in your own words, what the paper is about. (Note: repeating or paraphrasing the abstract of the paper does not satisfy this requirement.) This paragraph is important in that it establishes whether or not you understood the basic point of the paper. (2) The second section is most important—this is where you note two to four major points that you have with the paper. For example, the authors write a paper about the effect of X on Y, but their data is only a proxy for X—one major point you would raise is whether the effect estimated can really be of X on Y. If the model does has no relationship to the empirical approach, this is where such points are made. (3) The third section details minor points such as misspellings, confusing phrasing, grammar, etc. On the course website you will find two notes that detail how referee reports work. These have been taken from course syllabi in other courses and you should use them as a guide for your own referee reports.
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES
THE ECONOMICS OF AFRICAN AMERICAN SLAVERY:
THE CLIOMETRICS DEBATE
Richard C. Sutch
Working Paper 25197
http://www.nber.org/papers/w25197
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
October 2018
This paper was prepared for the Handbook of Cliometrics, second edition, edited by Claude
Diebolt and Michael Haupert, forthcoming 2019. I thank Howard Bodenhorn, Susan Carter,
Claude Diebolt, Alexander Field, Michael Haupert, David Mitch, Jonathan Pritchett, Roger
Ransom, Paul Rhode, Alan Olmstead.
Importance of Technology Essay | Essay on Importance of Technology for .... Technology Essay - How to Choose a Topic for Your Technology Essay?. Essay on Contribution of Technology in Education | Contribution of .... technology essay. Essay on Technology & Society | Society | Technology | Free 30-day .... Technology essay – Logan Square Auditorium. Technology Essay. Essay on Technology. 001 P1 Essay On Technology ~ Thatsnotus. 009 Essay On Technology Example ~ Thatsnotus. 013 College Application Essay How Technology Has Changed Our Lives .... About science technology essay. Striking Advantages And Disadvantages Of Technology Essay ~ Thatsnotus. Essay on Technology for Students & Children 600 Words in English. Technology Essay - How to write an essay about technology. Calaméo - English Essay Technology. Technology Essay Writing This Is An Ielts Writing Task 2 Sample Answer ....
Importance of Technology Essay | Essay on Importance of Technology for .... Technology Essay - How to Choose a Topic for Your Technology Essay?. Essay on Contribution of Technology in Education | Contribution of .... technology essay. Essay on Technology & Society | Society | Technology | Free 30-day .... Technology essay – Logan Square Auditorium. Technology Essay. Essay on Technology. 001 P1 Essay On Technology ~ Thatsnotus. 009 Essay On Technology Example ~ Thatsnotus. 013 College Application Essay How Technology Has Changed Our Lives .... About science technology essay. Striking Advantages And Disadvantages Of Technology Essay ~ Thatsnotus. Essay on Technology for Students & Children 600 Words in English. Technology Essay - How to write an essay about technology. Calaméo - English Essay Technology. Technology Essay Writing This Is An Ielts Writing Task 2 Sample Answer ....
Economics 463 Economic Development Before 1900 Fall 2015Prof. .docxjack60216
Economics 463 Economic Development Before 1900 Fall 2015
Prof. Christopher Clague Nasatir 318
Phone 594-5503 Home Phone (858) 412-3251 (not after 9PM, please!)
Office Hours: MWF 10-10:45 and by appointment
Email: [email protected]
Required texts (all are paperback; used books may be available at lower prices)
1. David Landes, The Wealth and Poverty of Nations, 1998, W. W. Norton ($17)
2. Robert C. Allen, The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective, 2009, Cambridge University Press ($28)
3. Robert B. Marks, The Origins of the Modern World: Fate and Fortune in the Rise of the West ($27) Roman and Littlefield, 3rd edition, paperback
4. Reader contains exercises, sources for paper topics, and the following articles:
a. Timor Kuran, “Why the Middle East is Economically Underdeveloped,” JEP, 2004
b. Kenneth Sokoloff and Stanley Engerman, “History Lessons: Institutions, Factor Endowments, and Paths of Development in the New World,” (JEP, 2000)
The following articles are posted on Blackboard
c. Elinor Ostrom, “Collective Action and the Evolution of Social Norms,” (JEP, 2000)
d. Eric Chaney, “Separation of powers and the medieval roots of the institutional divergence between the Middle East and Europe.” (2011)
Grading
Test 1 25%
Test 2 25%
Homework and Quizzes 25%
Optional Paper (+) up to 5%
Final exam 25%
Students may add up to 5 percentage points to their overall grade by writing a paper on a topic approved by the instructor. The Course Reader contains a list of reading suggestions for paper topics. You are not limited to these topics. The paper must address a well-defined question and must make use of reasoning related to course material. To write a paper, you must hand in a sheet of paper describing the topic and listing at least a couple of sources. The topic sheet is due by November 20 and the paper itself is due by December 4. Earlier submissions are welcome, and they will increase the opportunity for my comments on your paper. The paper should be about 8 double-spaced pages and must be no longer than 15 pages. The paper should contain a list of sources at the end. The body of the paper should contain specific references to these sources.
Students who have written a paper, have completed all the assignments in the course, and have B+ or better going into the final do not need to take the final exam.
Date
Topics
Reading
Aug 24-28
The Rise of the West; the World in 1400
Game Theory: Assurance Game
Marks, Intro, Chaps 1, 2
Aug 31-Sept 4
Europe and China in pre-modern period
Marks, Chap 3
Landes, Chap 1,2
Ex1 Assurance
Ex2 Speciali-
zation
Sept 9-11
European Exceptionalism; Technological Change in Middle Ages; Europe, China, and Islamic World
Game Theory: PD Game
Malthus, Population
Landes, Chap 3-4
*Chaney, Middle East and Europe on BB
Ex3 Empires, States, Trade
Ex4 PD game
Sept 14-18
Age of Discovery 1500-1750
Landes, Chap 6
Ex5,5a Malthus
Sept 21-23
Dutch Golden Age
European ...
Asia Pacific Foresight Group presentation – climate disruption and climate re...Wendy McGuinness
Wendy McGuinness was invited to join the Asia Pacific Foresight Group (APFG), a small group of strategic foresight practitioners working across NGOs, governments, and different industries in the Asia Pacific region. The inaugural meeting was held in Sydney on 30 September and 1 October 2019.
Each participant was invited to talk about a 'megatrend' that may impact the Asia Pacific region over the next 5 to 20 years. Wendy McGuinness presented on climate disruption, with a specific focus on climate reporting.
Assignment week 1-Read the document Transformational and charism.docxrock73
Assignment week 1
-Read the document Transformational and charismatic leadership.pdf
-How do charismatic and transformational leadership compare and contrast? Answer in maximum 200 hundred words
Assignment week 2
-Use International Poltical Economy.pdf
Answer the following questions:
1. How would you define the term “international political economy”?
2. Do you think that globalization is inevitable?
3. Do states define markets or do markets define states?
Story 1
Two young ,who love coffee, established it by roasting coffee in 2003 after they quited their universities. They roasted all types coffee
Story 2
A dad who lost 2 kids(dead) opeded this coffeeshop and his roasted coffees became famous in short time. Today this place serves different tastes of coffees which are from different areas.
Story 3
Looser Roastery was open by a group of friends as a looser club first and they became famous by making interesting coffees. Their most interesting characteristic was that they served their coffees with ayracs which are on the poems of the poets they like as a gift
Story 4
Brian ,who was a doctor in USA which is the country he is from, left the job he doesn’t pleasure. He express himself I used to save people’s lives but I wasn’t happy because my heart was hurting when I couldn’t save any patient. Eventualy, I said damn this job and science and I started to believe that the most real thing is coffee in this life. Today the coffees, which I make, make people feel better. Maybe they take away people to love.
Story 5
Nakata is 75 years old japanese and after he has a greencard by lotter, he came to New York because of his ideals and made Baris, who works in Starbucks, taste his sample coffees which he roasted in Japan. Baris loved his coffee and encouraged Nakata to establish Coffeeshop. This idea created Coffee Funk-hu. The experiences of Nakata and youthfulness of Baris serve you a life in your cup.
Story 6
It is a regional taste which serves special flavors to people by roasting sumatra coffee from only ethiopian and indonesian mountains since 1970
Story 7
Richart White ,who started to roasted coffee in his farm in texas in 1999, has made his dream come true. He tried his coffee bring peace by the roaster he opened with his friends,
What is International Political Economy?
An excerpt from an article by Michael Veseth.
What is IPE?
International Political Economy (IPE) is the rapidly developing social science field of study that
attempts to understand international and global problems using an eclectic interdisciplinary array
of analytical tools and theoretical perspectives. IPE is a field that thrives on the process that
Joseph Schumpeter called "creative destruction." The growing prominence of IPE as a field of
study is in part a result of the continuing breakdown of disciplinary boundaries between
economics and politics in particular and among the social sciences generally. Increasingly, the
most press ...
Ryan Avent writes that this year's best business books on economics all look back, with various degrees of pessimism on the construction of the post-World War II order, and on its demise. Marc Levinson's An Extraordinary Time chronicles the remarkable growth of the period between 1945 and 1973 -- and suggests the problems that have cropped up in the past 40 years represent a reversion to the mean. Rick Wartzman's The End of Loyalty tracks the breakdown of the social contract between employers and employees through the lens of four major U.S. industrial companies. And Walter Scheidel's The Great Leveler argues that the inequality that characterizes our own time has been present in societies since the beginning of recorded history.
In my opinion the Wall Street article seems to contradict Olsons .docxbradburgess22840
In my opinion the Wall Street article seems to contradict Olson's statement about lobbying. According to Olson the groups that have access to selective incentives are more likely to act in order to obtain collective goods, the smaller the group the grater the chance to engage in taking action. Meanwhile the collective good is predicted to be greater since the group is smaller. So the logic is the greater the group the smaller the likelihood of the group to take collective action. However, according to the Wall Street article, unionized workers have increased their influential power on politics over the last seven years! Situation that contradicts Olson, (in my opinion) unionized workers rely on little incentive to take collective action however the collective good (if obtained) can be of great benefit for the group. it is also true that unions have increased their political spending while the amount of members have decreased considerably. The number of unionized workers is smaller compared to numbers from 25 years ago however, the number of unionized workers is still a considerable great number.
I believe that union workers are sometimes willing to work as campaign workers because of a combination of factors:
· Trivial costs compared to perceived rewards;
· The psychological effects of working in a group toward a common goal;
· The innate political drive of many union leaders (workers may see political prowess as a way to move up the union ladder).
Prima facie, this would support Olson’s argument that labor unions would not exist if the sole benefit of joining them was the common benefits they provide. If the only benefit to union workers’ political efforts were the results those political campaigns bring union workers, there would in fact be no intrinsic motivation for the workers.
The reality is however, that there are other benefits to a union worker’s political activity beyond the benefits reaped from a successful campaign, and this could be a possible reason why workers continue to be involved, despite the fact that the gains of the union are virtually universal.
THE RISE AND DECLINE OF MANCUR OLSON’S VIEW OF THE RISE AND DECLINE OF NATIONS
J. Barkley Rosser, Jr.
Department of Economics
MSC 0204
James Madison University
Harrisonburg, VA 22807 USA
tel: 540-568-3212
Email: [email protected]
February, 2007
JEL Codes: B31, H00, N00, P00
Keywords: collective action, encompassing organizations, rent seeking, transition economies
Abstract:
The evolution of Mancur Olson’s views of his book, The Rise and Decline of Nations (1982), the middle of his three main books, is examined. It expands and extends to history and the world arguments presented in his The Logic of Collective Action (1965). While he never abandons the idea that the accumulation of interest groups in a democratic society may lead to its economic stagnation, how this comes about and can be overcome changes somewhat by the time of.
What is market failure Essay Example | StudyHippo.com. Market Failure Essay | Economics H2 - GCE A Level | Thinkswap. Market failure: A case study Essay Example | Topics and Well Written .... Market failure essay - YouTube.
Similar to Lattice Energy LLC- Macroeconomics Technology and Long Sweep of History-April 14 2012 (20)
Lattice Energy LLC - Strategic importance of accelerating commercialization o...Lewis Larsen
Prospects for commercialization of LENRs have radically improved. New Lattice report “Strategic importance of accelerating commercialization of LENRs for green radiation-free nuclear power and propulsion” aims at a broad audience and outlines strategic case for greatly increasing R&D funding to accelerate development of ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs) for CO2-free power generation. Recent Japanese government-funded NEDO project solved previously intractable problems with rational device design & fabrication, experimental repeatability, and erratic, limited thermal output that bedeviled researchers worldwide since 1989-90.
Given spectacular Japanese progress, it appears very likely that LENRs will be commercialized, probably sooner rather than later. Today, Japan is by far the experimental leader along that path; heavily involved companies include Mitsubishi Heavy industries, Toyota, and Nissan..
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Green hard-radiation-free ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs) could provide game-changing nuclear power for military combat systems ranging from aircraft to individual warfighters. LENRs are the only energy technology on the foreseeable horizon that could provide a quantum-leap in military power generation and propulsion capabilities in the 2030 - 2050 time-frame.
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If commercialized, LENRs could become one of the world’s preeminent energy technologies. At system electrical power outputs of just 5 - 10 kwh, modular LENR-based distributed power generation systems providing combined heat and electricity (CHP) could satisfy energy requirements of a majority of urban and rural households as well as smaller businesses worldwide. Much lower-output, revolutionary portable LENR power sources could displace chemical batteries in applications where ultrahigh performance and longevity are needed.
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Although they could very likely be designed and built, development of megawatt-output LENR systems is not mandatory to disrupt the world of energy for the better. If wide deployment of small-scale, low-cost LENR CHP distributed generation could be achieved, large numbers of fossil-fired and/or fission power plants would not have to be built to supply competitively priced, uninterruptible electricity to regional grids serving urbanized areas. Under that scenario, centralized grid power generation would be gradually displaced by vast numbers of smaller, price-competitive distributed LENR power systems inside homes and businesses.
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Lattice Energy LLC - Microbial radiation resistance transmutation of elements...Lewis Larsen
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Multi-species communities of microorganisms will expend energy to assimilate and process heavy elements like Cesium, Gold, and Uranium that -- now -- play no obvious roles in growth or metabolism. Credible experimental data suggests some bacteria are shifting isotope ratios and possibly even transmuting certain elements. How and why are microbes doing this? LENRs may explain how, but why?
Although credible experimental data suggests some microbes can transmute certain elements via LENRs, much more experimentation will be required to decisively demonstrate that microorganisms can truly transmute chemical elements at will and determine which species of microbes have such capabilities. LENRs may not be all that uncommon out in Nature; if so, there will be major implications for geochemistry, isotope geology, and nuclear waste remediation.
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ULE neutron-catalyzed transmutation is not energetically practical for more-abundant chemical elements found in living systems such as Carbon. However, transmutation could potentially be an energetically feasible and advantageous capability that could enable some fortunate microbes to produce life-critical, low-abundance catalytic active site metals that are unavailable in local environments.
Japanese government-funded project with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Toyota, Nissan, and four universities is developing abiotic LENRs for power generation. Recently reported outstanding heat production results at working temperatures and pressures far lower than those found in many undersea hydrothermal vents.
Lattice Energy LLC - Korean scientists use bacteria to reduce concentration o...Lewis Larsen
Korean scientists used experimental laboratory mixtures of bacteria to reduce concentration of radioactive Cesium-137 (as indicated by gamma emissions) present in aqueous growth solutions irradiated with light at 12-hour intervals, shaken, and incubated at 25o C.
During experiments, and compared to controls, measured gamma radiation for flasks containing bacteria decreased at vastly higher rates than would be expected for ‘normal’ rate of Cs-137 β-decay. Is radioactive Cesium actually being transmuted into heavier Cs isotopes and other elements by living bacteria?
Lattice Energy LLC - Widom-Larsen theory reveals surprising similarities and ...Lewis Larsen
Widom-Larsen theory unveils additional surprising similarities and connections between LENRs and chemical catalysis.
Synopsis: recent extensions of the Widom-Larsen theory of LENRs have for the first time revealed additional striking and unexpected similarities between electroweak nuclear catalysis --- collective many-body en + pn reaction in condensed matter --- and enzymatic catalysis, inorganic chemical catalysis, plasmon-mediated chemical photocatalysis with “hot” charge carriers, as well as widely published nanotechnology concept of heterometallic plasmonic antenna-reactor nanoparticles for photocatalysis. Among a number of surprising commonalities between LENRs and chemical catalytic processes, many-body collective quantum effects and high local electric fields > 1010 V/m enable many chemical reactions and LENRs to proceed with substantial rates at vastly lower working temperatures and pressures. Existence of all these unexpected parallels suggests that valuable engineering insights can be obtained by data mining state-of-the art technical knowledge about nanotech and chemical catalysis and then applying and leveraging new insights derived therefrom to help accelerate future development of LENRs for power generation.
Lattice energy LLC - Chinese chemists report photochemical triggering of LENR...Lewis Larsen
Experiments reported in 2017 by Prof. Gong-xuan Lu et al. at Lanzhou Institute of Chemical Physics, in Lanzhou, China showed photocatalytic triggering of ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs) at NTP with visible light. Experimental results reported in “Journal of Molecular Catalysis” (China) in 2017 claimed production of Deuterium and Helium as well as nuclear transmutation of Potassium to Calcium. Very significant discovery if experimental claims can be independently confirmed by other researchers using same methods. If Lu et al.’s claims are confirmed, their work has important implications. For chemical catalysis, it suggests that LENR transmutations can occur at very low rates in parallel with ordinary chemical reactions; LENRs can coexist and interoperate at NTP. Also implies total mass-balances for chemical elements comprising reactants and products might not necessarily be conserved. For astrophysics and cosmochemistry, it means that nucleosynthesis can occur on surfaces of Hydrogen- and metal-rich dust grains irradiated by starlight.
Lattice Energy LLC - LENR experiment conducted by The Aerospace Corporation r...Lewis Larsen
LENR experiment conducted independently in 2017 by The Aerospace Corporation (non-profit company that operates a FFRDC) effectively repeated excess heat results reported by the Japanese government-funded NEDO LENR fabrication and testing project. Experimental data from this confirmatory experiment was reported by Dr. Edward Beiting, a physicist and Senior Scientist at The Aerospace Corporation, in a presentation that occurred on June 5, 2018 at the ICCF-21 conference held at Colorado State University in Ft. Collins, Colorado.
Lattice Energy LLC - LENRs are revolutionary disruptive energy technology for...Lewis Larsen
Safe, radiation-free ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs) expand use of nuclear power & propulsion into huge range of land vehicles, aircraft, watercraft, and spacecraft. Scales downward from large fission reactors used in nuclear naval aircraft carriers and submarines. Enormous energy densities of LENR-based power & propulsion technology could confer decisive combat systems advantages on near-future battlefields.
Lattice Energy LLC - Revolutionary LENRs for power generation - accelerating ...Lewis Larsen
Commercialization of radiation-free ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs) for power generation could potentially occur with surprising speed. In just 2.5 years, Japanese government NEDO-funded LENR device fabrication and testing project achieved TRL-4 (refuting the skeptics) and validated application of Widom-Larsen theory, materials science, and nanotech to help accelerate commercialization pathway from present developmental level of TRL-4 to future commercial LENR-based products at TRL-9.
Lattice Energy LLC - March 2 Technova seminar in Tokyo released more info re ...Lewis Larsen
Japan’s NEDO-sponsored LENR device project released additional technical details at Technova seminar held in Tokyo on March 2, 2018. Japanese government is targeting commercialization of LENRs as a revolutionary, radiation-free nuclear technology for use in power generation and propulsion applications. NEDO project results to date have demonstrated Watt-level reproducibility of excess heat in small nanocomposite LENR devices. Assuming substantial scale-up of device heat output is possible, NEDO project’s technical achievement validates future potential for LENRs to someday become an important source of green CO2-free energy.
Lattice Energy LLC - Russia announces nuclear fission-powered cruise missile ...Lewis Larsen
In globally televised speech on March 1, President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russia has successfully developed and tested a nuclear-powered cruise missile with unprecedented performance capabilities. If real (which appears likely), this advanced weapon system is probably powered by an unshielded Uranium fission reactor. Such a propulsion system would almost certainly produce large emissions of deadly energetic neutron/gamma radiation and release radioactive waste particulates into reactor exhaust plumes that would be rather dangerous to exposed people and the environment.
Radiation-free ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs) --- which involve neither fission nor fusion --- now under development by Lattice, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Toyota, and Nissan are a truly safe, green nuclear technology. Importantly, LENRs can potentially be scaled-up and might someday be able to safely propel future missiles, manned aircraft/UAVs, manned submarines/UUVs, and everyday motor vehicles.
Lattice Energy LLC - Japanese NEDO industry-academia-government project - nan...Lewis Larsen
Nanocomposite LENR devices in Japanese NEDO industry-academia-government R&D project produced enough cumulative excess heat to boil a cup of tea.
Since 1989, production of calorimetrically measured excess heat during vast majority of experiments with purpose-fabricated LENR devices was a hit-or-miss proposition. When excess heat produced, was typically < 1 Watt for periods ranging from few hours to several days. NEDO greatly improved device fabrication, reproducibility, longevity, and excess heat performance.
For years skeptics summarily dismissed LENRs as a potential new energy source because experiments were unable to produce enough excess heat to even “boil a cup of tea.” Thanks to results of NEDO project, not any more.
NEDO project has demonstrated that LENRs can produce non-trivial, Watt-level amounts of excess heat from nanocomposite multi-metal devices without emission of deadly fluxes of energetic neutron or gamma radiation --- it is safe, radiation-free nuclear technology.
Lattice Energy LLC - Japanese NEDO LENR project reported reasonably reproduci...Lewis Larsen
Japan’s NEDO industry-academia-government R&D program’s recent experimental results technically validated potential for LENRs to become major future energy source.
Excess heat was produced in ~ 80% of project’s reported LENR experiments. Whenever excess heat was created, it is most often at Watt-levels or better at reactor operating temperatures of 200 - 300 degrees C. Duration of excess heat production ranged up to weeks, which is non-trivial. Such LENR device behavior represents excellent reproducibility for complex early-stage technology. With respect to reproducibility of device fabrication methods and heat production, these are best-ever experimental results reported to date in field of LENRs.
Watt-level excess heat was produced in Hydrogen (H)- and Deuterium (D)-loaded experimental systems. No deadly energetic (MeV-energy) gamma or neutron radiation was detected during heat production in any project experimental runs. Such observations are consistent with and predicted by the Widom-Larsen theory of LENRs which posits production and capture of ultralow energy neutrons on ‘fuel’ atoms which drive hard-radiation-free nuclear transmutation reactions and decays that release nuclear binding energy in form of copious heat.
In Lattice’s opinion, NEDO project’s outstanding experimental results change LENRs’ Technology Readiness Level (TRL) from TRL-3 to TRL-4 (European Commission definitions). This is an important step in commercialization of LENRs for power generation applications.
Lattice Energy LLC - Japanese NEDO LENR project reported good progress in exc...Lewis Larsen
Japan now funding R&D in LENR technology for use in power generation applications. Quietly threw down the gauntlet to global oil industry.
January 2018: terse project report summarizing progress in Japanese government NEDO-funded R&D in LENRs for period of Oct. 2015 through Oct. 2017 was released by Technova Inc. on ResearchGate. Herein we will review and discuss NEDO project’s reported progress.
Project scientists reported significant R&D progress toward developing LENR devices that serve as powerful heat sources. Reproducibility of device fabrication techniques and excess heat output were improved. Certain nanocomposite, multi-metal LENR test devices with mass <140 grams cumulatively produced up to ~85 megajoules (MJ) of excess heat per mole (MJ/mol) of absorbed Hydrogen (H) or Deuterium (D); some: duration of heat > 1 month. By contrast, complete combustion of Hydrogen releases ~0.286 MJ/mol of H. Chemical processes cannot explain these results.
Japan, Inc. appears to be developing LENR technology to someday replace the internal combustion engine.
Lewis Larsen - Dow-Jones Industrial Average reaches 26000 - what happens next...Lewis Larsen
Dow-Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has just gone above 26,000 for first time ever. What happens next? Boom or bust?
Short pithy answer: “We ain’t seen nothin’ yet”; quoted from Barron’s article published in February 1988
Slightly longer answer: We are presently in an era of low-inflation economic growth and explosion of new technologies. Therefore, a continued global financial and economic boom subject to episodic, healthy market price corrections is much more likely to occur than a fearsome bust like the near-collapse of U.S. financial markets in 2008 and subsequent Great Recession from which world financial markets and many national economies are just beginning to fully recover. Herein we present key reasons why this bullish scenario should transpire as events unfold.
Lattice Energy LLC - Polar vortex cold wave in USA has potential for lower te...Lewis Larsen
Today, the United States is gripped in jaws of a Polar Vortex extreme cold weather event in Midwest and Northeast. On December 27, 2017 the nighttime low temperature in Duluth, Minnesota hit bone-chilling 41 degrees below zero F. This severe cold snap is predicted to persist through January 5 – 7, 2018. How will wind & solar renewable energy sources and commercial natural gas pipelines perform during this latest Polar Vortex event in U.S.? It will be interesting to see what happens between today and mid-January 2018.
Lattice Energy LLC - Fossil fuels and nuclear vs renewables for powering elec...Lewis Larsen
Enormous potential future value for diversified portfolios of renewable, fossil-fueled, and nuclear power generation --- enable grids to have resilience against extreme weather events related to climate change and “Black Swan” volcanic eruptions.
Proverb: “In the first place … an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” Benjamin Franklin (1735). Fukushima lessons: mitigate improbable extreme events if not too expensive; $200 million was thought too costly to fix backup generators in 2006 but the ‘cure’ for the 2011 nuclear disaster now costs $189 billion and could take 30 - 40 years.
What may appear ‘greener’ and less $$$ in myopic short-term decision-making about grids could end-up being extremely $$$ expensive or catastrophic in longer-term. Data suggests that is it too risky for society to put all its energy “eggs” into a single renewable basket. Lattice therefore believes balanced diversity of different types of grid power sources is best strategy for insuring 99+% future reliability and excellent resiliency of electricity grids facing onslaughts of extreme weather events and low but non-zero probability for catastrophic Black Swan volcanic eruptions.
Since high % of renewable energy sources on electricity grids is a new phenomenon and unexplored territory, there aren’t preexisting road maps to guide government regulation and critical implementation by industry. Private sector companies by nature are concerned with short-term bottom line profitability and have more narrowly focused interests; by contrast, government is responsible for insuring national energy security over much longer time-frames and broader range of grid-threatening events.
Rick Perry/DOE’s controversial NOPR to FERC in September created an important opportunity for U.S. government and industry to begin productive dialogue about how to enhance the U.S. electricity grid’s ability to maintain present reliability and adapt to climate change.
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 5DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 5. In this session, we will cover CI/CD with devops.
Topics covered:
CI/CD with in UiPath
End-to-end overview of CI/CD pipeline with Azure devops
Speaker:
Lyndsey Byblow, Test Suite Sales Engineer @ UiPath, Inc.
Threats to mobile devices are more prevalent and increasing in scope and complexity. Users of mobile devices desire to take full advantage of the features
available on those devices, but many of the features provide convenience and capability but sacrifice security. This best practices guide outlines steps the users can take to better protect personal devices and information.
Maruthi Prithivirajan, Head of ASEAN & IN Solution Architecture, Neo4j
Get an inside look at the latest Neo4j innovations that enable relationship-driven intelligence at scale. Learn more about the newest cloud integrations and product enhancements that make Neo4j an essential choice for developers building apps with interconnected data and generative AI.
GraphRAG is All You need? LLM & Knowledge GraphGuy Korland
Guy Korland, CEO and Co-founder of FalkorDB, will review two articles on the integration of language models with knowledge graphs.
1. Unifying Large Language Models and Knowledge Graphs: A Roadmap.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.08302
2. Microsoft Research's GraphRAG paper and a review paper on various uses of knowledge graphs:
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/graphrag-unlocking-llm-discovery-on-narrative-private-data/
GraphSummit Singapore | The Art of the Possible with Graph - Q2 2024Neo4j
Neha Bajwa, Vice President of Product Marketing, Neo4j
Join us as we explore breakthrough innovations enabled by interconnected data and AI. Discover firsthand how organizations use relationships in data to uncover contextual insights and solve our most pressing challenges – from optimizing supply chains, detecting fraud, and improving customer experiences to accelerating drug discoveries.
Securing your Kubernetes cluster_ a step-by-step guide to success !KatiaHIMEUR1
Today, after several years of existence, an extremely active community and an ultra-dynamic ecosystem, Kubernetes has established itself as the de facto standard in container orchestration. Thanks to a wide range of managed services, it has never been so easy to set up a ready-to-use Kubernetes cluster.
However, this ease of use means that the subject of security in Kubernetes is often left for later, or even neglected. This exposes companies to significant risks.
In this talk, I'll show you step-by-step how to secure your Kubernetes cluster for greater peace of mind and reliability.
Enchancing adoption of Open Source Libraries. A case study on Albumentations.AIVladimir Iglovikov, Ph.D.
Presented by Vladimir Iglovikov:
- https://www.linkedin.com/in/iglovikov/
- https://x.com/viglovikov
- https://www.instagram.com/ternaus/
This presentation delves into the journey of Albumentations.ai, a highly successful open-source library for data augmentation.
Created out of a necessity for superior performance in Kaggle competitions, Albumentations has grown to become a widely used tool among data scientists and machine learning practitioners.
This case study covers various aspects, including:
People: The contributors and community that have supported Albumentations.
Metrics: The success indicators such as downloads, daily active users, GitHub stars, and financial contributions.
Challenges: The hurdles in monetizing open-source projects and measuring user engagement.
Development Practices: Best practices for creating, maintaining, and scaling open-source libraries, including code hygiene, CI/CD, and fast iteration.
Community Building: Strategies for making adoption easy, iterating quickly, and fostering a vibrant, engaged community.
Marketing: Both online and offline marketing tactics, focusing on real, impactful interactions and collaborations.
Mental Health: Maintaining balance and not feeling pressured by user demands.
Key insights include the importance of automation, making the adoption process seamless, and leveraging offline interactions for marketing. The presentation also emphasizes the need for continuous small improvements and building a friendly, inclusive community that contributes to the project's growth.
Vladimir Iglovikov brings his extensive experience as a Kaggle Grandmaster, ex-Staff ML Engineer at Lyft, sharing valuable lessons and practical advice for anyone looking to enhance the adoption of their open-source projects.
Explore more about Albumentations and join the community at:
GitHub: https://github.com/albumentations-team/albumentations
Website: https://albumentations.ai/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/100504475
Twitter: https://x.com/albumentations
Climate Impact of Software Testing at Nordic Testing DaysKari Kakkonen
My slides at Nordic Testing Days 6.6.2024
Climate impact / sustainability of software testing discussed on the talk. ICT and testing must carry their part of global responsibility to help with the climat warming. We can minimize the carbon footprint but we can also have a carbon handprint, a positive impact on the climate. Quality characteristics can be added with sustainability, and then measured continuously. Test environments can be used less, and in smaller scale and on demand. Test techniques can be used in optimizing or minimizing number of tests. Test automation can be used to speed up testing.
Goodbye Windows 11: Make Way for Nitrux Linux 3.5.0!SOFTTECHHUB
As the digital landscape continually evolves, operating systems play a critical role in shaping user experiences and productivity. The launch of Nitrux Linux 3.5.0 marks a significant milestone, offering a robust alternative to traditional systems such as Windows 11. This article delves into the essence of Nitrux Linux 3.5.0, exploring its unique features, advantages, and how it stands as a compelling choice for both casual users and tech enthusiasts.
Dr. Sean Tan, Head of Data Science, Changi Airport Group
Discover how Changi Airport Group (CAG) leverages graph technologies and generative AI to revolutionize their search capabilities. This session delves into the unique search needs of CAG’s diverse passengers and customers, showcasing how graph data structures enhance the accuracy and relevance of AI-generated search results, mitigating the risk of “hallucinations” and improving the overall customer journey.
In the rapidly evolving landscape of technologies, XML continues to play a vital role in structuring, storing, and transporting data across diverse systems. The recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) present new methodologies for enhancing XML development workflows, introducing efficiency, automation, and intelligent capabilities. This presentation will outline the scope and perspective of utilizing AI in XML development. The potential benefits and the possible pitfalls will be highlighted, providing a balanced view of the subject.
We will explore the capabilities of AI in understanding XML markup languages and autonomously creating structured XML content. Additionally, we will examine the capacity of AI to enrich plain text with appropriate XML markup. Practical examples and methodological guidelines will be provided to elucidate how AI can be effectively prompted to interpret and generate accurate XML markup.
Further emphasis will be placed on the role of AI in developing XSLT, or schemas such as XSD and Schematron. We will address the techniques and strategies adopted to create prompts for generating code, explaining code, or refactoring the code, and the results achieved.
The discussion will extend to how AI can be used to transform XML content. In particular, the focus will be on the use of AI XPath extension functions in XSLT, Schematron, Schematron Quick Fixes, or for XML content refactoring.
The presentation aims to deliver a comprehensive overview of AI usage in XML development, providing attendees with the necessary knowledge to make informed decisions. Whether you’re at the early stages of adopting AI or considering integrating it in advanced XML development, this presentation will cover all levels of expertise.
By highlighting the potential advantages and challenges of integrating AI with XML development tools and languages, the presentation seeks to inspire thoughtful conversation around the future of XML development. We’ll not only delve into the technical aspects of AI-powered XML development but also discuss practical implications and possible future directions.
LF Energy Webinar: Electrical Grid Modelling and Simulation Through PowSyBl -...DanBrown980551
Do you want to learn how to model and simulate an electrical network from scratch in under an hour?
Then welcome to this PowSyBl workshop, hosted by Rte, the French Transmission System Operator (TSO)!
During the webinar, you will discover the PowSyBl ecosystem as well as handle and study an electrical network through an interactive Python notebook.
PowSyBl is an open source project hosted by LF Energy, which offers a comprehensive set of features for electrical grid modelling and simulation. Among other advanced features, PowSyBl provides:
- A fully editable and extendable library for grid component modelling;
- Visualization tools to display your network;
- Grid simulation tools, such as power flows, security analyses (with or without remedial actions) and sensitivity analyses;
The framework is mostly written in Java, with a Python binding so that Python developers can access PowSyBl functionalities as well.
What you will learn during the webinar:
- For beginners: discover PowSyBl's functionalities through a quick general presentation and the notebook, without needing any expert coding skills;
- For advanced developers: master the skills to efficiently apply PowSyBl functionalities to your real-world scenarios.
The Art of the Pitch: WordPress Relationships and SalesLaura Byrne
Clients don’t know what they don’t know. What web solutions are right for them? How does WordPress come into the picture? How do you make sure you understand scope and timeline? What do you do if sometime changes?
All these questions and more will be explored as we talk about matching clients’ needs with what your agency offers without pulling teeth or pulling your hair out. Practical tips, and strategies for successful relationship building that leads to closing the deal.
Encryption in Microsoft 365 - ExpertsLive Netherlands 2024Albert Hoitingh
In this session I delve into the encryption technology used in Microsoft 365 and Microsoft Purview. Including the concepts of Customer Key and Double Key Encryption.
Alt. GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using ...James Anderson
Effective Application Security in Software Delivery lifecycle using Deployment Firewall and DBOM
The modern software delivery process (or the CI/CD process) includes many tools, distributed teams, open-source code, and cloud platforms. Constant focus on speed to release software to market, along with the traditional slow and manual security checks has caused gaps in continuous security as an important piece in the software supply chain. Today organizations feel more susceptible to external and internal cyber threats due to the vast attack surface in their applications supply chain and the lack of end-to-end governance and risk management.
The software team must secure its software delivery process to avoid vulnerability and security breaches. This needs to be achieved with existing tool chains and without extensive rework of the delivery processes. This talk will present strategies and techniques for providing visibility into the true risk of the existing vulnerabilities, preventing the introduction of security issues in the software, resolving vulnerabilities in production environments quickly, and capturing the deployment bill of materials (DBOM).
Speakers:
Bob Boule
Robert Boule is a technology enthusiast with PASSION for technology and making things work along with a knack for helping others understand how things work. He comes with around 20 years of solution engineering experience in application security, software continuous delivery, and SaaS platforms. He is known for his dynamic presentations in CI/CD and application security integrated in software delivery lifecycle.
Gopinath Rebala
Gopinath Rebala is the CTO of OpsMx, where he has overall responsibility for the machine learning and data processing architectures for Secure Software Delivery. Gopi also has a strong connection with our customers, leading design and architecture for strategic implementations. Gopi is a frequent speaker and well-known leader in continuous delivery and integrating security into software delivery.
Alt. GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using ...
Lattice Energy LLC- Macroeconomics Technology and Long Sweep of History-April 14 2012
1. To evaluate the track record of Larsen prognostications about macroeconomics, markets, interest rates, and technologies published in the
attached 1986, 1988, and 1999 Barron's articles by Jon Laing, please see the following document at:
http://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/lewis-larsenforecasting-track-record-re-1980s-barrons-articles-by-jon-laingapril-15-2012
International competitiveness, macroeconomics, technology,
energy, and the long sweep of history
Lewis G. Larsen
President and CEO
Lattice Energy LLC, Chicago, IL USA
1-312-861-0115
April 14, 2012
Back in my past, I did independent research on international competitiveness and how it intertwines with
macroeconomics, technology, and history. This prior work was partly covered in an unpublished 1985
economics theory paper and three related articles that appeared in Barron's magazine (all appended).
I published key elements of my macroeconomic research in Barron's since academic journals were
uninterested in certain ideas at that time.
Ideas outlined in the brief 1985 theory paper and Barron's articles are as relevant today as they were
when they were first published over 20 years ago.
Unlike my recent theoretical research in the physics of low energy nuclear reactions (LENRs), the 1985
economic theory paper is just five pages of text, written in 'plain English,' and does not contain a single
mathematical equation (it was originally written as a op-ed piece that was rejected by the Wall Street
Journal's then op-ed page Editor, Robert Bartley). Thanks to encouragement from Barron's Editor-in-Chief
Alan Abelson, articles by Jon Laing began in 1986 and ended in 1999. Please try to read them in
chronological time sequence, as 'media atmospherics' change significantly from one decade to the next.
Many of my ideas about the intertwined dynamics of macroeconomics and technology are outlined in the
1999 Barron's article in which Laing wrote a long story featuring Prof. David's Hackett Fischer's brilliant
book, "The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History" (please see reference below).
Readers will notice at the very end of the 1999 Barron's article that I had already become intrigued with
the business opportunity potentially offered by LENRs --- then mistakenly called "cold fusion". Deciding to
do something about it, we formed Lattice in February 2000 and closed on seed funding in May 2001.
Regarding evolving media atmospherics: circa the mid-1980s legions of media pundits were agonizing
about the Japanese ‘owning the world’ over the next 20 years. Under that scenario, Americans were all
supposed to become ‘hamburger flippers’ working for Japanese companies. The pundit-handwringers
thought that essentially all US manufacturing was going to be outsourced to Japan (it is true, much
manufacturing with high % of labor content was outsourced, but it went to China and other countries that
had even lower labor costs than Japan). Worse yet, many on Wall Street along with various academic
economists believed that the US economy was then on the verge of total collapse. Some also thought
that the US was fast eclipsing in its international role as the 'world leader', just like England after W.W.II.
Please fast forward from 1986 to 2012, 26 years later: today, in many respects Japan's economy has
continued to struggle, even before the recent earthquake/tsunami horror; Russia is no longer a full-blown
superpower (the USSR having dissolved in the early 1990s); the US is really the last remaining true
military and economic superpower; and so forth. We all know that recent history.
As of 2012, Japan is now widely regarded an aging, somewhat sclerotic society ... a resurgent China is
the current economic bugbear of geoeconomic and geopolitical pundits. At some point in the next decade
or so after China completes the current rapid-growth phase of its economic evolution, India will probably
be heralded as the next great economic terror --- and so forth. We have all heard such rhetoric before.
April 14, 2012 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2012 All Rights Reserved Page 1
2. Importantly, none of the 1980s' various apocalyptic visions for the US economy actually came to pass: to
the contrary, it was the Japanese economy that sputtered on three cylinders and flirted with depression
on-and-off for 20 years. By the mid 1990s, Japanese labor cost advantages had pretty much evaporated
and they were forced to compete on a more level playing field with US high technology companies (e.g.,
Intel, Dell, etc.) and various Asian rivals such as China that had even lower labor costs.
During the Clinton era of the 1990s, the US had one of the longest periods of uninterrupted economic
growth and stock market appreciation in its history --- the US high tech sector boomed in an
unprecedented burst of innovation --- so much for the doom saying pundits and apocalyptic handwringers
of the mid-1980s. Overall, the Barron's prognostications back in the 1980s turned-out to be reasonably
accurate for the most part.
David Hackett Fischer is a Professor of History at Brandeis University: for further background, please see
his book (referenced below). David's historical research intersects my earlier macroeconomic work in that
major bursts of technological innovation (we are in one right now; it began just after W.W. II) that I have
identified with historical patent issuance data are responsible for triggering what Fischer refers to in his
book as global "periods of equilibrium."
Both David and I presently believe that a new such period of price equilibrium may well have begun in
approximately 1979 -1980. If our speculative conjecture ultimately proves to be correct, its ramifications
could have important strategic implications for science and technology, macroeconomics, business, and
geopolitics over the next three to five decades.
In addition to Fischer's work, there is one more potentially crucial point that one should be aware of:
recent data on total world population growth strongly indicates that it is finally slowing down and perhaps
even flattening-out. In fact, the brilliant Russian particle physicist Prof. Sergey P. Kapitza clearly predicted
this with a phenomenological model of world population growth that he developed and published in the
early 1990s. Significantly, if such apparent trends in recent world population data are correct, the current
era would be the first period of equilibrium in over 800 years during which world population growth was
decelerating, instead of accelerating (see Lattice SlideShare report dated Aug. 29, 2011, at
http://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/population-growth-decelerating-faster-than-expected-
consequences-for-next-50-yearslarsenexcerptaug-29-2011).
Potential strategic implications of decelerating world population growth during a Fischer "period of
equilibrium” could be profound: if this scenario describes what is actually underway today, and if runaway
global warming and/or other types of mega-environmental disasters do not somehow befall us, it would
mean that during the next 30 - 50 years there could potentially be incredibly large worldwide increases in
per capita income accompanied by mostly stable to declining long term interest and inflation rates.
As Mark Twain remarked, “... history does not really repeat itself, but it does rhyme." If past history is any
guide, such an age would probably be punctuated with very temporary, episodic bouts of moderate
supply driven price inflation, coupled with long, comparatively 'quiet' price interludes, as well as
occasional episodes of severe price deflation triggered by intense bursts of "creative [technological]
destruction" a la the famous economist Joseph Schumpeter. In other words, much like ~1880s to 1920s.
Is a global ‘Golden Age’ lurking somewhere out beyond our present near-term economic horizon? People
living in such a future era would likely experience unprecedented levels of global economic prosperity,
democratized universal education and access to services and data via the Internet, and technologically
driven economic growth.
As stated in Lattice’s April 2010 “White Paper” on SlideShare:
(http://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/cfakepathlattice-energy-llc-white-paper-excerptapril-12-2010 ); the
US-led PC era collapsed the price of computation and democratized human access to computers and
powerful software. Analogously, the rise of the Internet has democratized low-cost worldwide access to
information, ideas, and human knowledge and is gradually knitting the world together into a vast skein of
diverse, electronically intercommunicating humanity.
April 14, 2012 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2012 All Rights Reserved Page 2
3. If LENRs can be successfully commercialized as a clean, low cost, carbon-free energy source, it could
help enable ecologically sustainable, global economic growth and democratize universal access to
affordable clean, ‘green’ energy. In doing so, LENR technology could thus help magnify and intensify the
most positive economic, political, and human welfare aspects of what could potentially be the current
Fischer “period of equilibrium.”
With the help of commercial versions of on- and off-grid LENR-based distributed power generation
technologies, living standards of ~1.6 billion people who are presently living without any form of electricity
could finally be brought into the 21st century over the next 20 - 25 years --- a worthy goal, no doubt.
If all of these wonderful possibilities eventually came to pass, LENR technology could potentially become
one of many handmaidens for a new, global 'Golden Age of Man.’
Reference to Fischer’s “Great Wave” transnational socioeconomic model:
“The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History”
David Hackett Fischer
Oxford University Press (1996) ISBN: 019505377X 536 pp. Paperback edition: June 2000
In his book, Fischer meticulously characterizes and describes the details of what he calls four global
“Great Waves” that have occurred during the past ~1,000 years from the High Middle Ages up until today.
In Fischer’s two-stage conceptual model of a “Great Wave,” the first stage is a relatively noninflationary,
so-called “period of equilibrium” which typically lasts for 60 to 100 years (‘average’ duration is ~85 years).
A Great Wave’s second, longer stage is called a “price revolution” whose total duration is much more
variable than the first stage. In contrast to periods of equilibrium, price revolutions are characterized by
progressively higher rates of inflation and interest on debt obligations. They typically reach their final
climax in an inflationary economic cataclysm that is immediately followed by a massive deflationary
‘crash’ which sets the stage for the beginning of the world’s next period of equilibrium (which also marks
the starting point and beginning ‘seed’ for the next global Great Wave).
Over the past ~1,000 years, periods of equilibrium have occurred at one point during four well-known
historical epochs commonly known as the High Middle Ages (ca. 1000 - 1200), Renaissance (ca. 1400 -
1600), Enlightenment (ca. 1700 – 1800), and finally the Victorian Era (ca. 1830 – 1900); i.e., at certain
times during the eleventh, fifteenth, eighteenth, and nineteenth centuries.
As noted earlier, as of ca. 1979-80 it appears to that we may have entered the first Fischer period
of equilibrium for 600 years in which population growth is decelerating instead of accelerating.
That possibility might also have extraordinarily important implications, if correct.
April 14, 2012 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2012 All Rights Reserved Page 3
4. Inflation, Household Asset Preferences, and Economic Policy---
A Simplified View
Lewis G. Larsen
March 10, 1985
Model Conclusions and Implications for Economic Policy
The model predicts that as long as government policies insure that inflation rates do not exceed 3 - 5%,
there will be a continuing shift from tangible into financial assets in household portfolios. This shift will
in turn create a secular decline in interest rates and a secular uptrend in the stock market. Oscillations
around these trends will be determined by “normal” business cycles and fine-tuning of monetary and
fiscal policies. The presence or absence of large federal budget deficits cannot prevent this evolution of
events as long as inflation is in check. Deficits are not inflationary as long as they are not monetized.
However, deficits can keep interest rates higher than they would otherwise be. This in turn reduces
liquidity which slows down the rate of this shift. The model argues that the deficits are not the cause of
the high interest rates we are still experiencing. The real cause is a combination of the: long lag in
inflationary expectations; illiquidity in household portfolios, banks, and corporations; and a monetary
policy that has been too tight during the past year. Outside of printing money and monetizing a debt bail-
out, there are no simple, quick solutions to current liquidity problems. Given households’ reluctance and
inability to either liquidate or further leverage their primary tangible asset --- their houses, the only way
they can restructure and re-weight their portfolios is through allocation of a portion of their current and
future income. That income can only be provided through economic growth.
It seems safe to say that reflation is not politically acceptable at this time. Frankly, I am not sure if it is
possible to inflate much under current conditions --- short-term interest rates would rise quickly, invert
the yield curve, and collapse the economy before inflation could run very far. At this point in time,
inflation is much less of a danger than further reductions in liquidity. Guidelines for monetary growth
must take into account reduced velocity and added demands as a result of illiquidity. The Federal
Reserve Board must supply enough money and credit to the system to avoid a near-term recession so that
a combination of time and economic growth allow the asset-shifting process to do its job. Sensible
revisions of the current tax codes, especially regarding real estate, will facilitate the shift of capital into
financial assets and more productive sectors of the economy. IRAs, Keoghs, and 401-Ks are also a
positive step in that direction. Reduction of marginal tax rates will increase the amount of capital
available from household income for investment in financial assets and also help speed the asset shifting
process. A robust stock market will allow corporations to sell new stock rather than take on more debt.
Non-inflationary economic growth will bolster corporate profits, increase capital investment, and allow
companies to develop or buy the new technologies that will further increase productivity.
In the long run, as long as the economy grows in a non-inflationary fashion, large budget deficits serve no
useful purpose and should be substantially reduced or eliminated. However, although it can never be
proven, I am convinced that the fiscal stimulus of the budget deficits in 1981-82 probably prevented the
economy from slipping into an abyss that could have equaled the 1930’s. For that reason alone, they have
temporarily served a useful function. Deficits must now be reduced. However, as long as liquidity
remains a problem, it is important that monetary policy help counter-balance the near-term reduction of
fiscal stimulus as deficits decrease. Once liquidity is restored to normal levels, the Fed is again free to err
on the sided of tightness. Until these liquidity problems are solved, a sharp recession could trigger a real
catastrophe --- the abyss is still not all that far away.
Lewis G. Larsen 1 Copyright 1985
All Rights Reserved
5. The Recent Past
If commodity speculation was an epidemic in the 1970’s, speculation in real estate was a world-wide
pandemic. This speculative mania in farmland, residential, and commercial real estate resulted in a
substantial over-weighting of real estate in household portfolios. It also has the distinction of having been
the only speculative excess in 80 years that was financed with a long-term debt instrument --- the 20 to 30
year, fixed-rate conventional mortgage. Financing demands from this massive over-investment and
difficulties in rolling-over this debt are maintaining upward pressure on long-term interest rates. With a
leveling-off or outright drop in real estate values, many household portfolios are now less liquid than they
have been in years. Many U.S. corporations are saddled with excess commodity-related investments from
the 1970’s, highly leveraged balance sheets, and intense foreign competition arising from a strong dollar.
This has reduced corporate liquidity. Because of the world-wide markdown in the value of commodities
and collateral, banks are suffering with numerous problem loans and are illiquid themselves. Illiquid
banks do not lower credit standards for new borrowers, they raise them! It would not be surprising if a
portion of the phenomenal strength in the U.S. dollar is simply the result of a net contraction in
international lending and toughened standards for new borrowers. This current illiquidity is NOT a part
of any normal business cycle --- it is the aftermath of a speculative excess and marks a transition in the
trend of inflationary expectations.
Assumptions and Construction of the Model
Many authors, including Warren Buffett, have alluded to the idea that the average rate of return on total
corporate capital in the U.S. has been essentially constant for many years and is unaffected by current
inflation rates. My own investigation revealed a relatively compressed, non-Normal distribution of
corporate pre-tax rates of return on total capital centered on 11 to 13% per year. The results did not
change substantially across different time periods. Comprehensive data prior to the mid-1920s was not
readily available, however spot-checking of earlier data did not seem to contradict the other results. In all
of the data there was no clear correlation between the rate of return on capital and the current rate of
inflation. On this basis, let us make a simplifying assumption that the average annual rate of return on
U.S. corporate capital has been relatively constant at around 11 - 13% for the past 80 to 100 years, and
that this will probably continue into the future.
A second observation is that on a world-wide basis over the past 80 to 100 years, average issued yields
on long-term corporate and government bonds have never exceeded 15 - 16% for any appreciable length
of time (basis the local currency). There have been cases where traded yields on some government or
corporate bonds have surpassed those values for a while, but those were very likely the result of an
additional risk premium related to a high probability of default, or because of a hyperinflation in the local
currency.
Third is a behavioral assumption that households will shift capital between different categories of assets
in their portfolios in an attempt to maximize their after-tax, after-inflation rates of return. This behavior
is subject to the constraints of diversification and adequate liquidity. In this context, diversification
implies that households in the aggregate will always have some none-zero level of holdings in most or all
categories of assets, regardless of relative rates of return. As a result, asset shifts are never an all-or-
nothing phenomenon. Liquidity with regard to asset conversion has a marked effect on the rate at which
any asset shift can occur. Reduced liquidity slows the rate of the shifting process. In a series of articles
in the Wall Street Journal, John Rutledge has eloquently discussed the economic importance and impact
of shifts in asset preferences in household portfolios. He clearly demonstrates that the magnitude of these
asset shifts is more than large enough to swamp the impact of budget deficits in terms of raising or
lowering the level of interest rates.
Lewis G. Larsen 2 Copyright 1985
All Rights Reserved
6. Assumptions and Construction of the Model (continued)
How do households make the decisions that trigger these shifts? A major input to these decisions is their
expectations regarding the future inflation rate.
Friedman and Schwartz empirically reconfirmed some early work by Fisher that expectations concerning
price changes, inflation expectations, incorporate 20 - 30 years of experience/data and exhibit substantial
response lags relative to the currently measured rate and direction of inflation. Inflation expectations in
this context reflect an average value that in turn represents the mean of a statistical distribution of
household expectations. A change in inflation expectations is a shift in this mean with time. The rate at
which this occurs is a function of the intensity and duration of the stimulus, which is the spread between
inflation expectations and current measured rate of inflation. The behavior of households in the “tails” of
the distribution can be quite different from those near the “norm” and is the other reason why portfolio
shifts are not “all or nothing”. Slow incorporation of current inflation “information” into average
household expectations produces decision patterns that change slowly and exhibit consistency over long
time periods. For this reason, large-scale asset shifts can require 5 - 15 years to complete.
The last assumption is that inflation is an exogenous economic variable with political roots. Inflation
originates in government monetary and fiscal policies that are consciously tolerated by the participants in
the economy --- households, business, and government. Not that external price shocks, such as oil in
1973-74 and 1979, cannot worsen inflation --- they do, but such events in and of themselves are not the
root cause of it. History shows that inflation can be controlled whenever the national political will to do
so exists.
Capital Allocation among Alternative Assets
Let us examine household asset allocation in the light of these considerations.
Over the past 80 - 100 years, households could choose between the following asset categories --- financial
assets such as stock, bonds, money market instruments, life insurance, annuities, fixed-rate passbook
savings and cash; tangible assets such as real estate, personal possessions, antiques, art, other collectibles
and commodities such as gold and silver.
Inflation has a major impact on asset preference shifts, mainly in terms of relative weighting of tangible
versus financial assets in the portfolio. Government tax policies that incorporate capital gains and/or
income sheltering can have a powerful impact upon relative asset preferences. Relatively favorable tax
treatment of real estate investments and lack of widely available money-market type instruments were
probably the principal factors making real estate the preeminent tangible asset and inflation hedge in
household portfolios from the late 1960’s to the present.
Given an empirical limitation on the rate of return on corporate capital, as inflation rises and the spread
narrows between the expected inflation rate and the corporate return, households start shifting out of
stocks and into tangibles or (with financial deregulation) money market instruments. Since there is not
necessarily any upper limit to the rate of inflation (Germany in the 1920’s and Brazil and Argentina
today), why own shares of a corporation whose intrinsic rate of return on capital is 11 - 13% during a
period of high inflation? One reason why the rate of return on corporate capital is not strongly correlated
with the inflation rate is that a company priced at any premium to net asset value is not a “pure” tangible
asset. Its price contains considerable goodwill and claims on future earnings potential. Another reason is
that a corporation can also be looked upon as an input/output device with labor, capital, technology, and
Lewis G. Larsen 3 Copyright 1985
All Rights Reserved
7. Capital Allocation among Alternative Assets (continued)
materials as inputs and goods and services as outputs. Inflation being a generalized phenomenon, inputs
and outputs are affected about equally and the net result is a pass-through.
The situation for households in regard to bonds is that they tend to hold bonds to maturity and in an
inflationary climate it is risky to fix an interest yield for a long period of time. With no risk of default, a
household’s inflation expectations should be the primary criterion for judging the relative attractiveness
of bond yields. Data developed by Ibbotson and Sinquefield indicates to me that the average household
will buy bonds at yields that are only 1 - 2% premium to their inflation expectations. Since supplies of
bonds must “clear” each year and if the above were true, long-term bond yields must be in short-term
equilibrium with inflation expectations at all points in time. This implies that inflation expectations can
be approximated by subtracting the 1 - 2% risk premium from long-term bond yields. From all of this,
one would expect that both the secular trend and level of bond yields should lag inflation as it accelerates
and substantially exceed it as it declines, especially if the decline is rapid. That is exactly what history
shows. The secular uptrend in long-term bond yields has been broken within the past few years. Since
bond supplies must “clear” each year, this model would indicate that household inflation expectations
have finally begun a downtrend after an uptrend lasting many years. Current measured inflation rates
must continue to stay low for this to be lasting --- this relates back to the intensity and duration of the
stimulus described earlier.
Corporations issuing bonds have a situation complementary to that of the household. Why issue bonds at
a yield equal to or higher than the average rate of return on total corporate capital? As long-term yields
rise and the spread narrows between the market yield and their return on capital, corporations reduce their
new bond offerings and shift their borrowing into the short end of the debt markets. Corporate borrowing
in bonds is very elastic with respect to yields. Because of this, the supply of new corporate bonds
becomes negligible as issued yields exceed 15 - 16%. This ties in directly with the historical observation
mentioned earlier. Governments with taxing powers do not necessarily have to be elastic suppliers of
bonds. Long-term yields might have been slightly lower over the past few years if the U.S. government
had been more flexible in terms of the percentage of its financing in the long end of the debt markets.
Given that both stocks and bonds are favorable choices relative to inflation expectations, how do
households allocate capital between them? Bonds should be favored at taxable yields over 13%. At
taxable yields of 11 - 13%, bonds and stocks should be in rough competitive equilibrium. As taxable
bond yields drop below 11%, stocks should be increasingly favored. Households always hold some
bonds regardless of these relationships. I think that the close entrainment of the stock and bond markets
over the past two years reflects the operation of these trade-offs.
Ibbotson and Sinquefield have shown that over the long-run, short-term interest rates keep up with
inflation. One can assume that households have always “known” this. Prior to financial deregulation in
the U.S. in the late 1970’s, passbook savings accounts at fixed rates of interest were the only short-term
savings instrument readily available to many households. This exacerbated the shift out of financial
assets in the early to mid-1970’s when households shifted their “savings” from passbook accounts into
higher mortgage payments. Unlike the case in bonds, household behavior either as a creditor (saver) or
borrower (debtor) in the short end of the debt markets is quite complicated. Their decisions in this area
reflect a complex interplay between inflation, personal consumption, trend in personal income,
confidence, liquidity, lifestyle, price of credit and other factors. This shorter-term behavior can be
volatile and change rapidly with events and is a classic element in “normal” business cycles.
Lewis G. Larsen 4 Copyright 1985
All Rights Reserved
8. Capital Allocation among Alternative Assets (continued)
Tangible assets do not earn interest nor do they represent any claims on future earning power. In a sense,
tangible assets have no “futurity”, only “here and now”. In a paper money economy, the price of a
tangible asset is a relatively arbitrary function of the amount of paper money willing to chase it. In an
inflationary environment, there is not necessarily any upper limit to the price of a tangible asset or
commodity denominated in that currency. That is why households begin shifting into tangible assets as
inflation rises. The shifting process continues to favor tangible assets as long as inflation expectations
remain in an uptrend. Subject to the availability of liquid resale markets, tangible holdings are slowly
liquidated and reinvested in financial assets as inflation expectations decline. As was said earlier, it
appears that the uptrend in inflationary expectations has ended during the past several years. Current
illiquidity is dangerous because it is impeding the shift from tangible into financial assets and keeping
interest rates higher than they might otherwise be.
Lewis G. Larsen 5 Copyright 1985
All Rights Reserved