CII suggestion to implement last digit automobile rationing on Delhi roads to reduce pollution and traffic levels in Delhi

1. © Confederation of Indian Industry
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CII SUGGESTION
TO IMPLEMENT LAST DIGIT AUTOMOBILE
RATIONING ON DELHI ROADS TO REDUCE
POLLUTION AND TRAFFIC LEVELS IN DELHI
Confederation of Indian Industry
Delhi State Office
2nd
Floor, IGSSS Building
28, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi

2. © Confederation of Indian Industry
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BACKGROUND:
Growing urbanization coupled with increasing demand for mobility and
personal motorization remains one of the key challenges of Delhi. With the
advent of cheaper and smaller cars and also immigration, motorization is
expected to continue to increase at an unprecedented rate in Delhi.
The Government of NCT of Delhi, under the dynamic leadership of Mr
Arvind Kejriwal, Hon’ble Chief Minister has launched the second phase of
Odd / Even Car rationing scheme from 15 April 2016 for 15 days.
Just like the Odd / Even rationing of Cars, the Confederation of Indian
Industry (CII) suggests, the Government of NCT of Delhi in conjunction with
the Delhi Traffic Police to consider implementing ‘Last Digit Automobile
Rationing’ in the State.
The ‘Last Digit Automobile Rationing’ of vehicles would mean that the
Registration of Vehicle number plates ending with 1 would not be allowed
to drive on roads on 1st
, 11th
, 21st
and 31st
(date) of a month. Similarly, cars
ending with number 2 would not be allowed to drive on roads on 2nd
, 12th
and 22nd
(date). Subsequently, we suggest this rationing should be done for
every digit from 0 to 9 without giving exemption to any category other than
on CNG.
The Government of NCT of Delhi can implement the ‘Last Digit
Automobile Rationing’ on one or two digits of vehicle’s registration

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numbers alongside other measures that are being taken for the betterment
of Delhi’s Environment. This restriction should be implemented on every
mode of motorized transport, except Ambulances, Police Vehicles and Fire
Brigades.
The ‘Last Digit Automobile Rationing’ should get implemented on 2
Wheelers, 4 Wheelers including Women Drivers and Car Poolers from 8
AM to 8 PM on all weekdays and weekends.
The ‘Last Digit Automobile Rationing’ should be made permanent as this
would be least inconvenient to the citizens of Delhi and also without over
burdening the already burdened public transport system of Delhi.
IMPACT ANALYSIS:
The impact analysis has been done between Odd / Even Scheme and
Last Digit Automobile Rationing Scheme.
In Table-I, we have tried to compare the Odd / Even Scheme and Last
Digit Automobile Rationing Scheme and their due impact on CO2
emissions in Delhi State.

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Table-I
As per a study done by United States Environmental Protection Agency,
the universal average (Petrol and Diesel) CO2 emission from a car is 257
grams for every Kilometer run and approximately 75 grams for 2 Wheelers
and 3 Wheelers.
The hypothesis in the above Table-I is that, if a vehicle travels for 10 Km’s
every day for 365 days of the year, then the vehicle will emit 9.4 lac grams
of CO2 in the air. Subsequently, if all registered vehicles of the Delhi State
run for 10 Km’s for 365 days, then they are bound to emit 1,277,288 tons
of CO2 in the Delhi’s Environment. In Column-F of Table-I, we have tried to
explain the total emission of CO2 by registered vehicles (FY 2012) in a
year in Delhi.
A B C D E F G H I
Particular
No of
Cars in
Delhi
(2012)
Kms
Per Km
CO2
Emission
*
(Average
of Petrol
& Diesel)
Total
Emission in a
Day
Total Emission in
a Year
Total
Emission
Reduced by
Odd Even in
60 days *
Total Emission
Reduced by
Last Digit
Automobile
Rationing - 1
Digit **
Total Emission
Reduced by
Last Digit
Automobile
Rationing - 2
Digits ***
Private 4
Wheelers
834,095 10 257
2,143,624,150 782,422,814,750 4,823,154,338 7,331,194,593 14,662,389,186
Private 2
Wheelers
1,192,033 10 75
894,024,750 326,319,033,750
Exempt
3,218,489,100 6,436,978,200
Commercial
Vehicles
(Includes
HCV &
Buses)
179,678 10 257
461,772,460 168,546,947,900
Exempt Exempt Exempt
Total 2,205,806
Total
Reduced
Emissions
1,277,288,796,400 4,823,154,338 10,549,683,693 21,099,367,386
Percentage Reduction 0.3776% 0.8259% 1.6518%
* factoring in 20% for Women Drivers and 5% CNG cars in Delhi. Half the number of cars
running on roads for 60 days
** factoring 5% CNG cars in Delhi and 10% cars which are off the road everyday
*** factoring 5% CNG cars in Delhi and 20% cars which are off the road everyday
Disclaimer: These statistics are indicative based on approximate figures

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If Odd-Even Scheme is implemented for 15 days every quarter of the year,
which means four times in a year for 60 days, then the total reduction in
CO2 emission would be to the tune of 4,823 tons in a year, which is 0.37%
of the total emission in the year. It is notable that the Odd Even scheme is
only applicable to Private 4 wheelers. It exempts 2 Wheelers, 3 Wheelers,
commercial vehicles, women drivers and CNG fitted cars.
On the other hand, if the Last Digit Automobile Rationing Scheme is
implemented for a single digit throughout the year, then the total reduction
in emission would be 10,549 tons in a year, which means reduction is
0.82% of the total emission in the year, provided that only commercial
vehicles including busses taxis etc., Police vehicle, Ambulances and Fire
brigades are exempt from this scheme.
Subsequently, if the Last Digit Automobile Rationing Scheme for two
digits is implemented throughout the year, then the total reduction in CO2
emission would be 21,099 tons which will be a 1.6% reduction in the total
Carbon Di-oxide output in the city through vehicles.
Last Digit Automobile Rationing Scheme for two digits can be of 2 types:
v Constant Weekday Digits: On Monday vehicles ending with 1 and 2 are
restricted. On Tuesday vehicles ending with 3 and 4 are restricted. On
Wednesday 5 and 6, on Thursday 7 and 8 and Friday 9 and 0 are
restricted. There are no restrictions on the weekends.

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v Ascending Digit Rationing: On a particular date of every month,
automobile rationing would be for vehicles ending with that particular
digit of the date and also the next day’s date. E.g. on 1st
of the month
vehicles ending with digit 1 would be restricted and also vehicles ending
with 2 will also be restricted which is the next date. Similarly, on 2nd
of
the month, vehicles ending with digit 2 would be restricted and also
vehicles ending with 3 would be restricted. This rationing will continue
during the weekends also.
By the end of April this year, the Delhi Government would have completed
2 phases of the Odd-Even Scheme. The assumption of this study is that
the Government will implement one Odd-Even scheme of 15 days in every
quarter. Hence, 60 days of odd even rationing in a year where half of the
private vehicles would not be able to ply with some exemptions such as
lady drivers, CNG car etc.
The Odd-Even Scheme adds pressure on the public transport system of
Delhi. During the last implementation of this scheme, the Delhi Government
had procured services of 3,000 buses to meet demand of public
commutation in January 2016, hence adding to the cost of public transport
which could have been diverted towards new infrastructure development.
Also a patron at the time of replacing old vehicle if 'even' , would ensure the
new vehicle would be 'odd' but the old vehicle would not be discarded and
used on 'even' day - older vehicle likely to be more polluting.

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Comparative analysis
of CO2 reduction
The Graph shows
that the Last Digit
vehicle rationing, if
made permanent
without exemptions
will have triple the
impact on reduction
of emissions than
Odd-Even Scheme.
0.0000% 0.5000% 1.0000% 1.5000% 2.0000%
Odd Even
Last Digit Car Ratioining - 1 Digit
Last Digit Car Ratioining - 2 Digits
46%
33%
10%
5%
4% 2%
Pollution Share
Trucks Two Wheelers Passenger cars Buses LCV 3-Wheelers
Hence, given the above analysis, we suggest, Government of NCT of
Delhi to consider implementing ‘Last Digit Automobile Rationing’ for
at least one Month.
As per a few report available in public, out of all the sources of PM 2.5
pollution in Delhi, 20% is apportioned to Vehicles. Within this 20% of
vehicles, the distribution of pollution from various types of vehicles, as
stated in the report in public is below.

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The above graph shows that 33% pollution comes from 2 wheelers and
46% comes from Trucks in Delhi.
CASE STUDIES IN THE WORLD:
Mexico City, Mexico: Mexico City started Last Digit Vehicle Rationing in
November 1989. Their driving restriction program is known as "No-drive
days" which consist of prohibiting the circulation of 20% of vehicles from
Monday to Friday depending on the last digit of their license plates. The
program was made permanent at the end of the 1990 winter season. The
program is intended to improve air quality of Mexico City. The restriction is
based on the last digit of the license plate. Two numbers are restricted to
travel every day between from 5 a.m. to 10 p.m. The restrictions apply to
the entire Mexico City metropolitan area.
Santiago, Chile: Last Digit Vehicle Driving Restrictions were introduced
in Santiago in 1986, as a measure to mitigate Chile's capital high levels of
air pollution. The scheme is based on the last number of the license plate,
and two numbers are banned from entering the city between Monday and
Friday.
Sao Paulo, Brazil: São Paulo is the largest metropolis in the world with a
permanent alternate-day travel restriction. The scheme was first
implemented in 1995 as a trial on a voluntary basis, and then as a
mandatory restriction implemented in August 1996 to mitigate air pollution,
and thereafter made permanent in June 1997 to relieve traffic

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congestion. The driving restriction applies to passenger cars and
commercial vehicles, and it is based on the last digit of the license plate.
Two numbers are restricted to travel every day between 7 a.m. to 10 a.m.
and 5 p.m. to 8 p.m. from Monday through Friday.
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