Socio-economic Analysis of Delhi odd even scheme

1. Socio Economic Analysis of
Odd-Even Scheme in Delhi
By
• Anuron
• Angshu Plavan Nath (ENE17002)
• Lakhanlal
• Chandan Kumar
• Rituraj Bora (CSM15017)

2. Introduction
• New Delhi, India’s capital, is one of the most polluted cities in the
world.
• Regularly features in the top 3 most polluted places on the world.
• On November 8, pollution surged so high that some monitoring
stations reported an Air Quality Index of 999, way above the upper
limit of the worst category, Hazardous.

4. • Main causes of air pollution in Delhi
are-
Burning of crops, agricultural waste and
bio mass in nearby states.
Rapid growth in urbanization which leads
to huge amount of construction activities.
Exponential growth of vehicles in Delhi
which releases harmful gases like CO and
CO2. Currently, Delhi adds roughly 1000
new personal vehicles to its roads daily.
• Winter makes the pollution worse.

6. Some of the ill effects on health caused by the air pollution in Delhi are-
• It can lead to the onset of allergies or aggravate existing allergies and decrease lung
immunity.
• It might be instrumental in causing premature birth.
• It can decrease lung function across age groups.
• It might aggravate pre-existing lung and cardiac functions along with uncontrollable or
chronic coughing, wheezing and shortness of breath.

7. • To fight the severe air pollution in Delhi, the government decided to
implement odd-even scheme between January 1-15 and April 15-30,
2016. The same will be implemented again between November 13-17,
2017. The highlights of odd-even scheme were- [5]
• On even dates, private cars with only even registration numbers were
allowed on roads between 8AM-8PM. The same rule applied for cars with
odd registration numbers on odd dates on odd dates.
• Apart from the VIPs, politicians, Supreme Court judges and defence
vehicles, single women drivers and women drivers with children below the
age of 12 were exempted from the Delhi odd even rule.
• Fine of rupees 2000 was imposed on anyone who broke the rule.
• Two wheelers were exempted from this scheme.

8. Major Air Pollutants
Pollutant Sources Advisable Limit
Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)
• Vehicular Emission
• Power plants and other
industries
40-80 µg/m3
Sulphur Dioxide (SO2)
• Power plants, industries
• Extraction of metals from ores
50-80 µg/m3
Particulate Matter 2.5 (PM2.5)
• Vehicular emissions
• Burning of coal, fossil fuels and
biomass
40-60 µg/m3
Particulate Matter 10 (PM10)
• Vehicular emissions
• Burning of coal, fossil fuels and
biomass
• Dust from construction sites,
roads
60-100 µg/m3
Carbon Monoxide (CO)
• Vehicular Emission
• Incomplete combustion of fuel
2-4 µg/m3

9. Impact of Odd-Even Scheme on Pollution
Control
• We would look into the
variation of pollutant
concentration pre, during and
post odd even scheme.
• Variation of pollutants with
meteorological factors.
• Look at probable causes for
the changes in concentration
of pollutants.
52%
22%
19%
7%
POLLUTION CONTRIBUTORS
Dust Industries Fuel and Biomass Vehicular emissions

10. Phase I (1st Jan - 15th Jan, 2016)
Pollutant Pre odd even During Odd even
Max Min Average Max Min Average
PM2.5 224 99 161 279 200 239
PM10 363 237 300 536 228 382
NO2 68 45 56 104 30 67
SO2 17 9 13 22 5 14
CO 983 306 644.5 1554 363 958

11. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Concentration
Date
PM10 PM2.5
Concentrations of Particulate matter with time

12. Dependence on Meteorological Factors

13. • Burning of biomass in winters is
major pollution hazard.
• Aerosol over the NCR region is
reduced during odd-even scheme
hours.

14. Phase II (15th April – 30th April, 2016)
Pollutant
Pre odd even During Odd even
Max Min Average Max Min Average
PM2.5 125 54 85 190 75 123
PM10 292 198 238 490 225 330
NO2 63 39 50 93 36 62
SO2 29 9 16 39 10 34
CO 1670 474 891 2313 667 1334
O3 79 38 59 112 32 78
Benzene 10 3 6 8 1 5

16. Overview
• Based on a model study by Sharma, S., Malik, J., Suresh, R. and
Ghosh, P. on Analysis of Odd-Even Scheme Phase-II, phase II of odd-
even scheme led to a reduction of 4% in 24hourly PM2.5, with 17%
decrease in vehicular numbers.
• If one looks at the hourly variations, around 8am the gap between
Delhi’s pollution and its neighboring regions begins to form and
steadily increases until mid-afternoon. Then as temperatures begin to
fall, the gap starts to close.

17. Impacts of Odd Even Scheme
• The Govt. of Delhi’s website indicates that there are 88,27,431 (88
lakhs) registered motorized vehicles plying on the roads of Delhi. It is
also officially stated that “Cars and Jeep” comprise 31.61% of the
total registered vehicles, which results in 27,90,566 vehicles.
• Scientific community denied the success of odd even
• Hon’ble Finance Minister Arun Jaitley was found quoting that ‘it
would be worth studying how the productivity of the capital has been
impacted because of the “Odd-Even” experiment’.

18. Options for the citizen:
• Car Pooling System
• Use of Public Transport
• Buy another car
• Shift to Two wheelers
• Work from Home
• Risk Takers – Some commuters are ready to take the risk of
commuting to office by their car even if it doesn’t match with the
day’s even or odd number.

19. Cost of Implementation of Odd-Even Scheme:
• Additional man power
• Volunteers: Rs 3.5 crore(5000 Volunteers, Rs 500/Day)
• Hiring Buses: A large chunk of the amount – roughly Rs 14 crore(1200
extra buses)
• Advertisement: Rs 4 crore was spent on advertising the scheme – Rs
3 crore on pre-event promotions and Rs 1 crore on thanksgiving ads.
Total Investment=20 Crores INR.

20. Economic Impacts:
1. Less loss of man-hours as travel time gets shorter thus benefitting
firms and production units economically:

21. 2. The decrease in revenues of oil companies because of lost sales in
petrol/diesel :
• Value Added Tax collection from the sale of the fuels that month was Rs
40 crore less than the average monthly collection(IOCL, BPCL and
HPCL combined).
• The Delhi Government notified an increase on VAT on petrol and diesel.
The VAT rate for petrol was revised from 25% to 27% and for diesel
from 16.6% to 18%.
Fuel March,2016 April 2016 % Change Dec. 2015 Jan. 2016 % Change
Petrol 1,16,315 1,19,593 +2.82 1,14,538 1,05,525 -7.87
Diesel 1,35,340 1,35,110 -.17 1,52,272 1,39,411 -8.45

22. • During first round 9013 and 12861 Liters of petrol and diesel were
saved. Which results in reduction of CO2 emission by 54 tonnes.
• Petrol and Diesel produce approximately 2.3 Kg CO2 and 2.6 Kg CO2
respectively per liter of fuel.
• NOx emission can be assumed as 5g/liter of diesel and 1g/liter of petrol.
So it resulted in 58 kg less NOx.

23. 3. The increase in government's revenues from use of public transportation like
Delhi metro and buses:
• The DTC’s daily trip percentage went up by 41 per cent, daily earnings
increased by Rs 6 lakh or 13.20 per cent, daily passenger count went
up from Rs 35 lakh to Rs 38 lakh, and operational efficiency increased
from 88 per cent to 95 per cent.
• 3,192 trips of metro vs 2,827 trips in last year
4. The demand for autos had gone up by about 50% as a large chunk
of private vehicles were off roads.

24. 4. Rise in demand of CNG:
• Indraprastha Gas Ltd.(Joint venture of Gail, BPCL and delhi govt.)
recorded highest CNG sale of 26.7 lakh kg a day this week after more
vehicles switched to the cleaner fuel
• The company is the sole supplier of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)
and Piped Natural Gas (PNG) in the National Capital Region of Delhi.
• Indraprastha Gas (IGL) has hit a record high of Rs 901, up 3.6% on the
BSE in intra-day trade
• Thus far in 2016, the stock rallied 70% from Rs 529 at the beginning of
the calendar year 2016.

25. 5. Rise in Demand of CNG and Hybrid Vehicles
• Maruti Suzuki India Ltd, the country’s largest selling carmaker,
recorded a 30% rise in the sale of hybrid and CNG cars in the national
capital region (NCR) during the first 3 month of 2016.
• Since the last odd-even ban, when the company sold about 10,000
such cars every month, the sales of hybrid and CNG cars had gone up
to 13,000, every month.
6. The demand for autos had gone up by about 50% as a large chunk of
private vehicles were off roads. But people said it was not always easy
to get an auto as most drivers overcharge and refuse to go to certain
destinations.

26. 7. Impact of Pollution on Tourism
2260000
2280000
2300000
2320000
2340000
2360000
2380000
2013 2014 2015
No. of Foreigners visited Delhi
No. of Foreigners visited Delhi
The data in the above table is taken annualy. And the pollution in Delhi
remains at its peak during Nov, Dec. and January. Associated Chambers of
Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) report suggests that the
crisis period in the national capital will deter tourists from making new
travel plans in India.

27. Social Impacts:
1. Clear losers from this policy are middle class men, especially sales
reps and others in service sectors whose work requires everyday drive
on different routes. The clear winners are middle class women with a
car and well-off families with two cars (one odd and one even No.
plate), as both groups save lots of time by commuting unrestricted in
lighter traffic.
2. It made many people to relocate out of Delhi to Gurgaon or Noida as
per their work location.Now, with people moving out, it has some
impact on economy also.

28. 3. Important groups which are affected from this policy were not
mentioned at all, for example, how many men were sales reps and/or
provide services (especially deliveries) at client’s premises, thus had
to be on the road every day, but were restricted?
4. Ola, Uber and Meru launched carpool, share and shuttle options in
their app.
5. Self drive car company Zoomcar introduced Zoom Commute for
weekday commute options and launched doorstep delivery of cars in
Delhi.

29. 6. Fall in popularity of CNG because of poor
CNG infra in Delhi:
• Poor CNG infra resulted in long queue and had negative impact on the
mind set of the people.
• IGL is the only CNG supplier in Delhi and has monopoly on the
market. On one side the customer were forced to opt CNG vehicles
because of economic gain as well as other benefits but the CNG
infrastructure of delhi was not sufficient to address this rapid rise in
demand.
• In December 2015 the no. of CNG refilling stations were 280. Even
supreme court passed an order to open 104 new refill stations
immediately.

30. 7. The poor CNG infrastructure in near by states of Delhi limits the
growing popularity of CNG vehicles.With a CNG vehicle you can not
travel long distances because of unavailability of CNG.
9. Paucity of trained mechanics for CNG kits have made repairs
expensive.

31. SOME EXTRA RULES IMPLIMENTED
Trucks will not be allowed to run across Delhi until 11pm.
All vehicles will have to follow the standards of Euro VI 2017.
The Delhi government has also decided to shut down the Badarpur power
plant in southern Delhi, which is one of the coal-based plants of the NTPC

32. WAS THE SCHEME SUCCESSFUL ??
• Air-pollution levels in Delhi rose 15 percent during the 15-day period (January 1 to 15, 2016) of
the state government’s odd-even measure over the previous 15 days (December 17 to 31,
2015) according to an analysis of PM (particulate matter) 2.5 data,
• As IndiaSpend reported, and, with four-wheeled vehicles accounting for no more than 10% of
the city’s overall vehicular pollution load.

33. Data for 7 Jan, 2016 is taken from 12 AM to 6 PM, data for 8 Jan, 2016 is from 12
PM to 11:59 PM, for 31 Dec, 2015 and 15 Jan, 2016 the data is from 12 AM to 4.30
PM.
Average PM 2.5 concentration in Delhi’s air was 309 micrograms per cubic meter
(µg/m³) during the period when the odd-even experiment was in force (January 1 to
15, 2016), according to the guidelines of the Central Pollution Control Bureau (CPCB).
 PM 2.5 levels dropped 37 percent from week 3 (January 2016) to week 4
(January 2016), based on a weekly analysis of PM 2.5 concentration data .The
odd-even scheme was active during this period.

34. Average PM 2.5 Concentration For Each Week From Dec 18, 2015
to Jan 14, 2016

35. On average, daily PM 2.5 concentration levels have been above 250
µg/m³ on 11 out of 15 days during which the odd-even rule was
enforced

36. REASEARCH ANALYSIS
Two wheelers account for 33 percent of all PM10 and PM 2.5 emissions by
vehicles.
Trucks emit 46 percent of all PM10 and PM 2.5, among vehicles.
Four-wheelers contribute to 10 percent of all PM 10 and PM 2.5 emissions by
vehicles

37. Conclusion
• By saving man hours due to congestion free drives has positive impact
on economy of the state.
• The state has to bear the loss of 60 crores INR(40 crore as VAT loss+20
crore to implement odd even) .
• IGL benefitted from Odd even due to monopoly on the market.
• Hybrid car emerges as an alternative to conventional cars.