Looking back, the 20th century saw more innovation then history of mankind before that. This was the century of electronics, computers, software and the Internet. Now when we are at the beginning of the 21st century what will we see in the coming decades? There is strong evidence that technology is still very primitive and that we will see more progress in the 21st century than all progress of mankind combined. In this lecture we look into the future and look at the trends that are will shape the world in the near future. We will look at technology that dies and jobs that are changing. References: BBC Horizon (1964) with Arthur C. Clarke Big Thinkers (2001) with Douglas Adams Peter Diamandis: Abundance is our future - 2012 TED talk Peter Diamandis: Abundance the book IPCC Climate Change Microsoft's Future Vision - Live, Work, Play

1. Lecture L24
THE FUTURE

2. “Optimism is a strategy for making a better future.
Because unless you believe that the future can be better,
you are unlikely to step up and take responsibility for making it so.”
- Noam Chomsky

3. PREDICTING THE FUTURE

4. Illustrations by French artist
Villemard in 1910 of how he
imagined the future to be in
the year 2000

5. Read
more
at
Sad
and
Useless,
http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-­‐in-­‐2000/#FQZyXhjwDLTbqp6Y.99
In the 21st century, in order to control traffic jams in the air,
there will be more and more flying policemen.

6. Read
more
at
Sad
and
Useless,
http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-­‐in-­‐2000/#FQZyXhjwDLTbqp6Y.99
Schools will be equipped with audio books.

7. Read
more
at
Sad
and
Useless,
http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-­‐in-­‐2000/#FQZyXhjwDLTbqp6Y.99
You’ll be able to send mail just by dictating it into loudspeaker.

8. Read
more
at
Sad
and
Useless,
http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-­‐in-­‐2000/#FQZyXhjwDLTbqp6Y.99
Building sites will be equipped with
automatic devices and machines.

9. Read
more
at
Sad
and
Useless,
http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-­‐in-­‐2000/#FQZyXhjwDLTbqp6Y.99
Listening to an audio-newspaper.
Listening
to
an
audio-­‐newspaper.

10. Walter Cronkite in the Home
Office of 2001 (1967)

11. 11

12. This is how computers
work in 2001

14. WE TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE THE
IMMIDIATE IMPACT OF
TECHNOLOGY AND
UNDERESTIMATE
THE LONG-TERM

15. WE EMPHASISE
THE TECHNOLOGY
BUT IGNORE THE
SOCIAL AND CULTURAL IMPACT

16. BBC Horizon (1964) with
Arthur C. Clarke

18. Image: wikipedia.org

21. Douglas Adams in 2001

23. Stuff that works

24. 1900
REVOLUTION
IN
SCIENCE
–
EINSTEIN,
CURIE,
FREUD,
BOHR,
TURING
!
BROADCAST
CULTURE
–
RADIO,
MOVIES,
TV,
SITCOMS
!
ANALOG
–
RECORDS,
CASETTES,
FILM,
BOOKS,
CD,
DVD
!
INDUSTRIAL
!
FACT
BASED
EDUCTION
2000 2100
WHAT
WILL
THE
FUTURE
BE?

25. WE ARE STILL IN THE EARLY STAGES
OF TECHNOLOGY GROWTH

26. 70 YEARS AGO

27. 45 YEARS AGO

28. “"There
is
no
reason
for
any
individual
to
have
a
computer
in
their
home.”
-­‐
Kenneth
Olsen,
president
and
founder
of
Digital
Equipment
Corp.,
1977
37 YEARS AGO

29. 33 YEARS AGO

30. 30 YEARS AGO

31. Attribution: Chris 73 / Wikimedia Commons
25 YEARS AGO

32. THE CAR AT 25 YEARS

33. 10 YEARS AGO

34. 7 YEARS AGO

35. 4 YEARS AGO

36. MUSIC
PICTURES
COMMUNICATION
SMARTPHONES
TV
SHOWS
MOVIES
BOOKS/MAGAZINES
DIGITAL DECADE
2000 2010

37. WILL THE FUTURE BE FANTASTIC?

38. WTF
HAPPENED TO
MY JOB?!?
UNEMPLOYMENT

39. In 1800 most jobs were in agriculture

40. INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

41. THE MACHINE AGE

42. 99% of jobs in 1800 don’t exist today

43. WHAT ABOUT JOBS TODAY?

44. 70% OF JOBS WILL DISAPPEAR

45. Global Warming
Financials Crisis
Loss of Biodiversity and Extinctions
Arms trade
Drugs Conflicts
Extreme weather
Overpopulation
Terrorism
Food shortages

46. IS THE
WORLD
GETTING
WORSE?

47. SO
IS THERE
ANY
REASON
TO BE
OPTIMISTIC?

49. Peter Diamandis
Abundance is our future - 2012 TED talk

51. NOW IS
THE
TIME
TO BE
OPTIMISTIC
ABOUT THE
FUTURE

53. 1900
REVOLUTION
IN
SCIENCE
–
EINSTEIN,
CURIE,
FREUD,
BOHR,
TURING
!
BROADCAST
CULTURE
–
RADIO,
MOVIES,
TV,
SITCOMS
!
ANALOG
–
RECORDS,
CASETTES,
FILM,
BOOKS,
CD,
DVD
!
INDUSTRIAL
!
FACT
BASED
EDUCTION
2000 2100
THE
THIRD
INDUSTRIAL
REVOLUTION
END
OF
CONTROL
EVERYTHING
IS
DIGITAL
THE
RISE
OF
SOFTWARE
ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE
INFINITE
COMPUTING
ROBOTICS
3D
PRINTING
SYNTHETIC
BIOLOGY
DIGITAL
MEDICINE
NANOMATERIAL
ABUNDANCE
SUPERMAGNETS

54. SOFTWARE AND DATA ARE IN THE CLOUD

55. INTERNET – 2,5 BILLION PEOPLE +
3 BILLION COMING ONLINE

56. COMPUTERS,
PHONES,
DEVICES
ARE
JUST GATEWAYS
TO THE CLOUD

57. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

59. ROBOTICS

60. 20th CENTURY INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS

61. 21ST CENTURY ROBOTS – SPATIAL

62. ROBOTS THE LEARN

64. uARM KIT $189

65. AUTOMATIC AGRICULTURE ROBOTS

66. AUTOMATIC AGRICULTURE ROBOTS

67. SEXBOTS
http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/scott20131110

68. 3D PRINTING

71. JOBS OF THE FUTURE
WHY IS MY
JOB GONE?
How will the
job market
change?

72. THE SECOND MACHINE AGE
Source:
http://www.economist.com/

73. MUSIC
PICTURES
COMMUNICATION
SMARTPHONES
TV
SHOWS
MOVIES
BOOKS/MAGAZINES
DIGITAL DECADE
2000 2010

74. 2010 2020
BUSINESS
MODELS
OF THE 20TH
CENTURY
THE TRANSFORMATION DECADE
NEW
BUSINESS
MODELS
BASED ON
PEER-2-PEER
AND
ABUNDANCE

75. JOBS
IN
SALE
AND
DISTRIBUTION
OF
PRODUCT
THAT
CAN
BE
MADE
DIGITAL
AND
DISTRIBUTED
WITH
THE
INTERNET

76. VIDEO STORES
MUSIC STORES
BOOKSTORES
…

77. BOOKSTORES ARE
BECOMING COFFEE HOUSES

78. PHONE COMPANIES ARE BECOMING
VIDEO STORES
Source:
http://www.nationphone.com/USATVAbroad.html

79. Edited program Algorithmically selected
program
OVER THE TOP CONTENT
BEFORE FUTURE

80. Buy, own, clutter Stream, temporary, subscribe,
algorithmically recommended,
social
JOBS BECOME INTERNET SERVICE
BEFORE FUTURE

81. JOBS in SALE
AND
DISTRIBUTION
OF PRODUCT
THAT CAN BE
BOUGHT ONLINE

82. STORES ARE TURNING INTO FITTING ROOMS

83. SHOP WITH APP

84. HELP YOURSELF

85. SJÁLFSAFGREIÐSLASHOP ONLINE AND PICK UP

86. …OR GET DELIVERED

87. Trucks Self driving cars, drones,
quadcopters
TRANSPORTATION – PRODUCTS
BEFORE BECOMES

88. Run on diesel, electricity Runs on super magnets
TRANSPORTATION – TRAINS
BEFORE BECOMES

89. !
CLERK JOBS
BECOME
SOFTWARE
SERVICE

90. Go to the bank Online
CLERK JOBS
BEFORE NOW

91. JOBS
IN
ANALYSING
AND CONSULTING
BECOMES
SOFTWARE
SERVICE

92. Assist, advice Software, videos, softbots
that recommend
SERVICE JOBS
BEFORE FUTURE

93. Legal, accounting, tax
services
Software that analysis
data and recommends
PROFESSIONAL JOBS
BEFORE FUTURE

94. Diagnosis, recommendation Software, sensors that
analysis and recommend
HEALTH CARE
BEFORE FUTURE

95. 95
Imagine a
portable, wireless
device in the palm
of your hand that
monitors and
diagnoses your
health conditions

96. Teachers, textbooks,
schools, degrees
MOOCs, online, virtual
degrees, personalised
education, livelong
EDUCATION
BEFORE FUTURE

97. JOBS WITH
PRODUCTION
REPLACED
WITH
MACHINES

98. Low paid jobs, simple skills Robots
FOOD PRODUCTION
BEFORE FUTURE

99. PRODUCTION
Low paid jobs, simple skills
BEFORE
Low paid jobs, simple skills Robots
FUTURE

100. Mass production 3D Printing, personalized
DESIGN AND PRODUCTION
BEFORE FUTURE

101. Intellectual sexbots
FUTURE OF SEX
BEFORE FUTURE
You know how it works,
sex toys

102. JOBS OF THE FUTURE
Creative
Value-added
Experience
Content creation
Crossing skill sets
OK, I GET
IT

103. DAWN OF MAN NOW FUTURE
We tend to
look back
!
Tyranny of
common sense
!
RVP
Unknown
Opportunity

104. IS TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS
GOOD OR BAD?

107. “I like stepping into the future. Therefore, I look for doorknobs.”
― Mark Rosen

108. New Technology 2014