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New Technology 2016 L01 Introduction
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Technology
History has many examples of powerful companies that seem to be unbeatable. Then in a short time they become irrelevant due to new companies with new ideas. One of the factors in such transformation is technology. Never in history has technological change been so important in building and destroying companies. We look at few examples of successful companies that fail to address the chaning times and become disrupted. We also look at why technology emerges when it does and why some ideas can only be realised when certain conditions are met. In this first lecture we set the tone for the course and define the themes that we will be looking at.
Ólafur Andri RagnarssonFollow
Lecturer, author, speaker at Reykjavík UniversityAdvertisement
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New Technology 2016 L01 Introduction
- NEW TECHNOLOGY 2016
- Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
- LECTURE L01 INTRODUCTION
- Stephen Elop, CEO Nokia
- In 2002 Nokia had 35% of the worlds mobile market In 2006 Nokia had 73.6% of the worlds smartphone market
- Falling from glory Nokia stock price 2007-2011
- 1871: Founded. Spends the next century making tyres, boots and cables. 1987: Launches first phone. The Mobira Cityman weighs almost 1kg. 1992: Sells non-mobile divisions and launches first digital GSM phone, the Nokia 1011. 2000: Stock market value hits 186bn euros. Now worth 11bn euros. 2003: Basic 1100 phone launched. Goes on to sell 250 million units and become the world's most popular consumer electronic device. 2011: Abandons Symbian mobile phone operating software and switches to the Windows platform instead. Source: Reuters/Nokia History of a survivor
- The iPhone Effect
- Shift in power Source: Google
- Shift in power
- Early 2011, Elop said in a memo they were standing on a burning platform
- How did we get to this point? Why did we fall behind when the world around us evolved? This is what I have been trying to understand. I believe at least some of it has been due to our attitude inside Nokia. We poured gasoline on our own burning platform. I believe we have lacked accountability and leadership to align and direct the company through these disruptive times. We had a series of misses. We haven't been delivering innovation fast enough. We're not collaborating internally. Nokia, our platform is burning. Elop’s Memo - excerpts http://www.theguardian.com/technology/blog/2011/feb/09/nokia-burning-platform-memo-elop
- February 11th 2011, Nokia announced a partnership with Microsoft
- September 3rd 2013, Microsoft bought Nokia’s Devices and service business for $7.2 billion
- Is this new…?
- Western Union 1878 7,500 offices 12.000 employees 200,000 miles of cable
- https://thepoliticalcarnival.net/tag/western-union/
- Alexander G. Bell, 1876
- "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." - Western Union internal memo, 1876.
- Actually this is not even rare…
- Britannica 1990 Sales: $650 million
- Taken from Mary Meeker’s State of the Internet
- Printed books, sold in stores Online, access everywhere, updated in real-time, crowdsourced THEN NOW
- And again…
- In January 2010, Blockbuster operated 5,200 stores worldwide
- By September 2010, Blockbuster files for bankruptcy
- TECHNOLOGY IS ONE OF THE MAJOR FACTORS IN CHANGE
- Today 3.4 billion people connect to the Internet and in the next few years 3 billions will connect There are more mobile devices connecting to the Internet than computers Printed newspapers and magazines are going out of business, those who survive will go online Bookstores are closing as sales of books decline CD sales are dropping rapidly as online streaming increases TV stations need to go on the internet or out of business Social networks are shaping our lives in ways we never imagined Amazon sells more digital books than printed books Over 6 billion hours of video are watched each month on YouTube Self-driving cars are taking to the roads People are starting to lose jobs because of robots Every day 864 million people log on to Facebook each day People are tracking the health and activity with sensors and gathering statistics in the cloud
- UNDERSTANDING TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON PEOPLE, BUSINESSES AND SOCIETY
- CAN WE LOOK FORWARD 3-5 YEARS TO SEE COMING CHANGES
- LIVING IN THE FUTURE
- Written March 4th 2013
- WHY WAS 2014 THE TIME FOR THE SMARTWATCH?
- This was in 1991…
- Then in 2015 this happens…
- Is Virtual Reality really real or just fake?
- WHY IS 2016 THE TIME FOR VIRTUAL REALITY?
- ADJACENT POSSIBLE WHEN ALL THE ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES AND CONDITIONS ARE READY, NEW INNOVATION WILL EMERGE
- EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
- 2000 2010 iMac iPhone iMac G3 Mac OS 9.0.4 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory Screen - 786K pixels Storage - 30GB Hard Drive iPhone 4 iOS 4.0 1 Ghz ARM A4 CPU, 512MB Memory Screen - 614K pixels Storage - 32GB Flash Drive THE SECOND HALF OF THE CHESSBOARD
- MUSIC PICTURES COMMUNICATION SMARTPHONES TV SHOWS MOVIES BOOKS THE DIGITAL DECADE 2000 2010
- 2000 2010 SOCIAL MEDIA
- 3+ BILLION PEOPLE ARE CONNECTED TO THE INTERNET
- THE DIGITAL DECADE THE CONTENT ESCAPES THE FORM INTERNET DISRUPTION BEGINS 1900 2000 From hierarchical structure to networks From broadcasting to streaming - long tail From Read-only culture to read-write culture The Move to Networks THE TRANSFORMATION DECADE BUSINESS MODELS CHANGE SMARTPHONES REAL TIME SOFTWARE CLOUD AND AI 2010
- HIERARCHAL NETWORK 20th Century 21th Century
- THE TRANSFORMATION DECADE 2010 2020 BUSINESS MODELS OF THE 20TH CENTURY BUSINESS MODELS OF THE 21TH CENTURY
- MANY 2 MANY: PEER INTERACTION ESTABLISHED BUSINESS MODELS GET DISRUPTED READ WRITE CULTURE ONE 2 MANY: BROADCASTING BUSINESS MODELS GET ESTABLISHED READ ONLY CULTURE BEFORE NOW CONTROLLED BY GATEKEEPRS CONTROLLED BY CONSUMERS
- Desktops, heavy laptops Lighter, smaller, portable BEFORE NOW THE WORLD IN YOUR POCKET
- Keyboard, mouse Touch, sound, gesture BEFORE NOW CHANGE IN USER EXPERIENCE
- OUR DEVICES ARE GATEWAYS TO THE CLOUD
- UNIVERSAL ACCESS TO KNOWLEDGE, SERVICES AND OTHER PEOPLE
- END OF CONTROL
- FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT IN PEOPLE’S BEHAVIOUR
- FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN CONSUMING CONTENT Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo
- FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN PRODUCING CONTENT Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo
- FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN CONNECTING PEOPLE
- FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN DOING BUSINESS
- FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN DOING BUSINESS
- FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN DOING BUSINESS
- FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN DOING BUSINESS
- 25 Videostores, DVD, late fees, clutter Everything, anywhere, anytime (almost) for rent BEFORE NOW CHANGE IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR
- WHO RENTS DVD ANYMORE?
- Printed books, magazines Digital, automatically delivered, interactive BEFORE NOW CHANGE IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR
- BOOK STORES SELL COFFEE NOW
- STORES BECOME FITTING/TRYING ROOMS
- SHOPPING WITH APPS
- DELIVERY SERVICES
- Own, store, clutter Rent, subscribe, stream OWNERLESS LIFESTYLE BEFORE NOW
- FREEDOM BEFORE NOW Car Smartphone
- 20. CENTURY 21. CENTURY TRANSFORMATION 3D PRINTING, ROBOTS MASS CUSTOMISATION, DESIGN PERSONAL STREAMING ABUNDANCE USER REVIEW INDUSTRY MASS PRODUCTION BROADCASTING SACRISTY GATEKEEPERS
- HOW DO YOU RUN A BUSINESS WHEN EVERYTHING IS CHANGING?
- “Disruption only happens to the unprepared” - Marlier & Pontes.
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