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NEW TECHNOLOGY
2016
Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
LECTURE L01
INTRODUCTION
Stephen Elop, 

CEO Nokia
In 2002 Nokia had 35% of 

the worlds mobile market
In 2006 Nokia had 73.6% of the 

worlds smartphone market
Falling from glory
Nokia stock price 2007-2011
1871: Founded. Spends the next century making tyres, boots and cables.
1987: Launches first phone. The Mobira Cityman weigh...
The iPhone Effect
Shift in power
Source: Google
Shift in power
Early 2011, Elop said 

in a memo they were 

standing on a 

burning platform
How did we get to this point? Why did we fall behind when the world
around us evolved?

This is what I have been trying to...
February 11th 2011, Nokia announced 

a partnership with Microsoft
September 3rd 2013, Microsoft bought Nokia’s Devices

and service business for $7.2 billion
Is this new…?
Western Union 1878
7,500 offices
12.000 employees
200,000 miles of cable
https://thepoliticalcarnival.net/tag/western-union/
Alexander G. Bell, 1876
"This 'telephone' has too many
shortcomings to be seriously considered
as a means of communication. The
device is inherent...
Actually this is not even rare…
Britannica 1990
Sales: $650 million
Taken from Mary Meeker’s State of the Internet
Printed books, sold in stores Online, access everywhere, 

updated in real-time, 

crowdsourced
THEN NOW
And again…
In January 2010, Blockbuster 

operated 5,200 stores worldwide
By September 2010, Blockbuster 

files for bankruptcy
TECHNOLOGY 

IS ONE OF THE 

MAJOR

FACTORS IN

CHANGE
Today 3.4 billion people connect to the Internet and in the next few years 3
billions will connect
There are more mobile d...
UNDERSTANDING
TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
AND THEIR IMPACT ON
PEOPLE,
BUSINESSES

AND SOCIETY
CAN WE
LOOK FORWARD
3-5 YEARS
TO SEE COMING
CHANGES
LIVING IN THE FUTURE
Written March 4th 2013
WHY WAS
2014
THE TIME FOR THE
SMARTWATCH?
This was in 1991…
Then in 2015 this happens…
Is Virtual Reality really real or just fake?
WHY IS
2016
THE TIME FOR
VIRTUAL REALITY?
ADJACENT POSSIBLE
WHEN ALL 

THE ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES AND
CONDITIONS ARE READY, 

NEW INNOVATION WILL EMERGE
EXPONENTIAL

GROWTH
2000 2010
iMac iPhone
iMac G3	
Mac OS 9.0.4

500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory

Screen - 786K pixels

Storage - 30GB Ha...
MUSIC
PICTURES
COMMUNICATION
SMARTPHONES
TV	SHOWS
MOVIES
BOOKS
THE DIGITAL DECADE
2000 2010
2000 2010
SOCIAL MEDIA
3+ BILLION PEOPLE 

ARE CONNECTED 

TO THE INTERNET
THE 

DIGITAL DECADE

THE CONTENT

ESCAPES

THE FORM

INTERNET 

DISRUPTION

BEGINS
1900 2000
From hierarchical structure ...
HIERARCHAL NETWORK
20th Century 21th Century
THE TRANSFORMATION 

DECADE
2010 2020
BUSINESS
MODELS OF THE
20TH CENTURY
BUSINESS
MODELS OF THE
21TH CENTURY
MANY 2 MANY: 

PEER INTERACTION
ESTABLISHED
BUSINESS MODELS
GET DISRUPTED
READ WRITE CULTURE
ONE 2 MANY: 

BROADCASTING
BU...
Desktops, heavy laptops Lighter, smaller, portable
BEFORE NOW
THE WORLD IN YOUR POCKET
Keyboard, mouse Touch, sound, gesture
BEFORE NOW
CHANGE IN USER EXPERIENCE
OUR
DEVICES
ARE
GATEWAYS
TO
THE
CLOUD
UNIVERSAL

ACCESS TO
KNOWLEDGE,
SERVICES AND
OTHER PEOPLE
END

OF

CONTROL
FUNDAMENTAL

SHIFT
IN

PEOPLE’S

BEHAVIOUR
FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN

CONSUMING
CONTENT
Picture	by	Flickr	user	Shaggyshoo
FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN

PRODUCING
CONTENT
Picture	by	Flickr	user	Shaggyshoo
FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN

CONNECTING PEOPLE
FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN

DOING BUSINESS
FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN

DOING BUSINESS
FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN

DOING BUSINESS
FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN

DOING BUSINESS
25
Videostores, DVD,
late fees, clutter
Everything, anywhere,
anytime (almost) for rent
BEFORE NOW
CHANGE IN CONSUMER BEHA...
WHO RENTS DVD ANYMORE?
Printed books, magazines
Digital, automatically
delivered, interactive
BEFORE NOW
CHANGE IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR
BOOK STORES SELL COFFEE NOW
STORES BECOME FITTING/TRYING ROOMS
SHOPPING WITH APPS
DELIVERY SERVICES
Own, store, clutter Rent, subscribe, stream
OWNERLESS LIFESTYLE
BEFORE NOW
FREEDOM
BEFORE NOW
Car Smartphone
20. CENTURY 21. CENTURY
TRANSFORMATION
3D PRINTING, ROBOTS
MASS CUSTOMISATION, DESIGN
PERSONAL STREAMING
ABUNDANCE
USER RE...
HOW DO YOU

RUN A BUSINESS
WHEN EVERYTHING

IS CHANGING?
“Disruption only happens to
the unprepared”
- Marlier & Pontes.
New Technology 2016 L01 Introduction
New Technology 2016 L01 Introduction
New Technology 2016 L01 Introduction
New Technology 2016 L01 Introduction
New Technology 2016 L01 Introduction
New Technology 2016 L01 Introduction
New Technology 2016 L01 Introduction
New Technology 2016 L01 Introduction
New Technology 2016 L01 Introduction
New Technology 2016 L01 Introduction
New Technology 2016 L01 Introduction
New Technology 2016 L01 Introduction
New Technology 2016 L01 Introduction
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New Technology 2016 L01 Introduction

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History has many examples of powerful companies that seem to be unbeatable. Then in a short time they become irrelevant due to new companies with new ideas. One of the factors in such transformation is technology. Never in history has technological change been so important in building and destroying companies. We look at few examples of successful companies that fail to address the chaning times and become disrupted. We also look at why technology emerges when it does and why some ideas can only be realised when certain conditions are met.

In this first lecture we set the tone for the course and define the themes that we will be looking at.

Published in: Technology
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New Technology 2016 L01 Introduction

  1. 1. NEW TECHNOLOGY 2016
  2. 2. Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  3. 3. LECTURE L01 INTRODUCTION
  4. 4. Stephen Elop, 
 CEO Nokia
  5. 5. In 2002 Nokia had 35% of 
 the worlds mobile market In 2006 Nokia had 73.6% of the 
 worlds smartphone market
  6. 6. Falling from glory Nokia stock price 2007-2011
  7. 7. 1871: Founded. Spends the next century making tyres, boots and cables. 1987: Launches first phone. The Mobira Cityman weighs almost 1kg. 1992: Sells non-mobile divisions and launches first digital GSM phone, the Nokia 1011. 2000: Stock market value hits 186bn euros. Now worth 11bn euros. 2003: Basic 1100 phone launched. Goes on to sell 250 million units and become the world's most popular consumer electronic device. 2011: Abandons Symbian mobile phone operating software and switches to the Windows platform instead. Source: Reuters/Nokia History of a survivor
  8. 8. The iPhone Effect
  9. 9. Shift in power Source: Google
  10. 10. Shift in power
  11. 11. Early 2011, Elop said 
 in a memo they were 
 standing on a 
 burning platform
  12. 12. How did we get to this point? Why did we fall behind when the world around us evolved? This is what I have been trying to understand. I believe at least some of it has been due to our attitude inside Nokia. We poured gasoline on our own burning platform. I believe we have lacked accountability and leadership to align and direct the company through these disruptive times. We had a series of misses. We haven't been delivering innovation fast enough. We're not collaborating internally. Nokia, our platform is burning. Elop’s Memo - excerpts http://www.theguardian.com/technology/blog/2011/feb/09/nokia-burning-platform-memo-elop
  13. 13. February 11th 2011, Nokia announced 
 a partnership with Microsoft
  14. 14. September 3rd 2013, Microsoft bought Nokia’s Devices
 and service business for $7.2 billion
  15. 15. Is this new…?
  16. 16. Western Union 1878 7,500 offices 12.000 employees 200,000 miles of cable
  17. 17. https://thepoliticalcarnival.net/tag/western-union/
  18. 18. Alexander G. Bell, 1876
  19. 19. "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." - Western Union internal memo, 1876.
  20. 20. Actually this is not even rare…
  21. 21. Britannica 1990 Sales: $650 million
  22. 22. Taken from Mary Meeker’s State of the Internet
  23. 23. Printed books, sold in stores Online, access everywhere, 
 updated in real-time, 
 crowdsourced THEN NOW
  24. 24. And again…
  25. 25. In January 2010, Blockbuster 
 operated 5,200 stores worldwide
  26. 26. By September 2010, Blockbuster 
 files for bankruptcy
  27. 27. TECHNOLOGY 
 IS ONE OF THE 
 MAJOR
 FACTORS IN
 CHANGE
  28. 28. Today 3.4 billion people connect to the Internet and in the next few years 3 billions will connect There are more mobile devices connecting to the Internet than computers Printed newspapers and magazines are going out of business, those who survive will go online Bookstores are closing as sales of books decline CD sales are dropping rapidly as online streaming increases TV stations need to go on the internet or out of business Social networks are shaping our lives in ways we never imagined Amazon sells more digital books than printed books Over 6 billion hours of video are watched each month on YouTube Self-driving cars are taking to the roads People are starting to lose jobs because of robots Every day 864 million people log on to Facebook each day People are tracking the health and activity with sensors and gathering statistics in the cloud
  29. 29. UNDERSTANDING TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON PEOPLE, BUSINESSES
 AND SOCIETY
  30. 30. CAN WE LOOK FORWARD 3-5 YEARS TO SEE COMING CHANGES
  31. 31. LIVING IN THE FUTURE
  32. 32. Written March 4th 2013
  33. 33. WHY WAS 2014 THE TIME FOR THE SMARTWATCH?
  34. 34. This was in 1991…
  35. 35. Then in 2015 this happens…
  36. 36. Is Virtual Reality really real or just fake?
  37. 37. WHY IS 2016 THE TIME FOR VIRTUAL REALITY?
  38. 38. ADJACENT POSSIBLE WHEN ALL 
 THE ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES AND CONDITIONS ARE READY, 
 NEW INNOVATION WILL EMERGE
  39. 39. EXPONENTIAL
 GROWTH
  40. 40. 2000 2010 iMac iPhone iMac G3 Mac OS 9.0.4
 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory
 Screen - 786K pixels
 Storage - 30GB Hard Drive iPhone 4 iOS 4.0
 1 Ghz ARM A4 CPU, 512MB Memory
 Screen - 614K pixels
 Storage - 32GB Flash Drive THE SECOND HALF OF THE CHESSBOARD
  41. 41. MUSIC PICTURES COMMUNICATION SMARTPHONES TV SHOWS MOVIES BOOKS THE DIGITAL DECADE 2000 2010
  42. 42. 2000 2010 SOCIAL MEDIA
  43. 43. 3+ BILLION PEOPLE 
 ARE CONNECTED 
 TO THE INTERNET
  44. 44. THE 
 DIGITAL DECADE THE CONTENT ESCAPES THE FORM INTERNET DISRUPTION BEGINS 1900 2000 From hierarchical structure to networks From broadcasting to streaming - long tail From Read-only culture to read-write culture The Move to Networks THE 
 TRANSFORMATION DECADE BUSINESS MODELS CHANGE SMARTPHONES
 REAL TIME SOFTWARE CLOUD AND AI 2010
  45. 45. HIERARCHAL NETWORK 20th Century 21th Century
  46. 46. THE TRANSFORMATION 
 DECADE 2010 2020 BUSINESS MODELS OF THE 20TH CENTURY BUSINESS MODELS OF THE 21TH CENTURY
  47. 47. MANY 2 MANY: 
 PEER INTERACTION ESTABLISHED BUSINESS MODELS GET DISRUPTED READ WRITE CULTURE ONE 2 MANY: 
 BROADCASTING BUSINESS MODELS GET ESTABLISHED READ ONLY CULTURE BEFORE NOW CONTROLLED BY GATEKEEPRS CONTROLLED BY CONSUMERS
  48. 48. Desktops, heavy laptops Lighter, smaller, portable BEFORE NOW THE WORLD IN YOUR POCKET
  49. 49. Keyboard, mouse Touch, sound, gesture BEFORE NOW CHANGE IN USER EXPERIENCE
  50. 50. OUR DEVICES ARE GATEWAYS TO THE CLOUD
  51. 51. UNIVERSAL
 ACCESS TO KNOWLEDGE, SERVICES AND OTHER PEOPLE
  52. 52. END
 OF
 CONTROL
  53. 53. FUNDAMENTAL
 SHIFT IN
 PEOPLE’S
 BEHAVIOUR
  54. 54. FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN
 CONSUMING CONTENT Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo
  55. 55. FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN
 PRODUCING CONTENT Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo
  56. 56. FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN
 CONNECTING PEOPLE
  57. 57. FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN
 DOING BUSINESS
  58. 58. FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN
 DOING BUSINESS
  59. 59. FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN
 DOING BUSINESS
  60. 60. FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN
 DOING BUSINESS
  61. 61. 25 Videostores, DVD, late fees, clutter Everything, anywhere, anytime (almost) for rent BEFORE NOW CHANGE IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR
  62. 62. WHO RENTS DVD ANYMORE?
  63. 63. Printed books, magazines Digital, automatically delivered, interactive BEFORE NOW CHANGE IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR
  64. 64. BOOK STORES SELL COFFEE NOW
  65. 65. STORES BECOME FITTING/TRYING ROOMS
  66. 66. SHOPPING WITH APPS
  67. 67. DELIVERY SERVICES
  68. 68. Own, store, clutter Rent, subscribe, stream OWNERLESS LIFESTYLE BEFORE NOW
  69. 69. FREEDOM BEFORE NOW Car Smartphone
  70. 70. 20. CENTURY 21. CENTURY TRANSFORMATION 3D PRINTING, ROBOTS MASS CUSTOMISATION, DESIGN PERSONAL STREAMING ABUNDANCE USER REVIEW INDUSTRY MASS PRODUCTION BROADCASTING SACRISTY GATEKEEPERS
  71. 71. HOW DO YOU
 RUN A BUSINESS WHEN EVERYTHING
 IS CHANGING?
  72. 72. “Disruption only happens to the unprepared” - Marlier & Pontes.

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