This document summarizes the transportation planning process presented in a lecture by Dr. Anna Nagurney. The planning process involves 4 phases: 1) collecting base year inventory data on existing networks and traffic, 2) building mathematical models to understand relationships between planning factors, 3) using the models to forecast future traffic, and 4) evaluating potential network designs based on traffic predictions and cost-benefit analyses. The core three-stage model involves trip generation, trip distribution, and traffic assignment models to predict traffic flows.

1. Lecture 1
Transportation Planning Process
Dr. Anna Nagurney
John F. Smith Memorial Professor
Isenberg School of Management
University of Massachusetts
Amherst, Massachusetts 01003
c 2009
Dr. Anna Nagurney FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

2. Transportation Planning Process
Phase I - Base Year Inventory
Make inventory of existing network + existing traffic patterns.
• O/D travel demand tables
• counters on roads
• inventory of planning factors
is is industrial?
what is the income distribution?
types of employment.
Dr. Anna Nagurney FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

3. Traffic Congestion in the USA
Copyright by Texas Transportation Institute, 2004
Dr. Anna Nagurney FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

4. Traffic Congestion in India
remixconcepts.blogspot.com
Dr. Anna Nagurney FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

5. Transportation Planning Process
Collection of data to be used in model to predict the traffic flow
pattern.
∗ The data must be extrapolated if it is to be used for predicting
future traffic patterns.
Dr. Anna Nagurney FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

6. US Interstate Highway Network
www.freightcenter.com
Dr. Anna Nagurney FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

7. Transportation Planning Process
Phase II - Model Building
Interested in finding out relationships among parameters of the
system.
3 categories of relationships
1. Trip Generation Models.
# of trips attracted to a certain area or generated in a certain area.
Ox , Dy : trip ends
Ox = # of trips produced (generated) at zone x (production zone)
Dy = # of trips attracted to zone y (attraction zone)
Dr. Anna Nagurney FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

8. 2. Trip Distribution Models.
Given Ox ’s and Dy ’s find the O/D travel demand table.
Will then know how many travelers from Ox will go to Dy ; for all
x, y pair.
y1 x1 y2 x2 y3
Dy
Ox
Dr. Anna Nagurney FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

9. Transportation Planning Process
Travel Demand:
dxy = kOx Dy f (cxy )
cxy : travel cost from zone x to zone y
∗ dxy increases as cxy decreases.
3. Traffic Assignment Models.
Given O/D table dxy ’s, find how this travel demand is distributed
among different routes and modes of transportation.
Dr. Anna Nagurney FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

10. Transportation Planning Process
Relates traffic flow pattern to O/D pairs and characteristics of
networks.
Can be applied to:
• communication networks
• energy networks
• electrical networks
• economic and financial networks
Dr. Anna Nagurney FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

11. Another Type of Traffic Congestion!
www.darkroastedblend.com
Dr. Anna Nagurney FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

12. Transportation Planning Process
Three Stage Model
for Transportation Planning.
Trip
Generation
Trip
Distribution
Traffic
Assignment
{Ox} {Dy}
trip
ends
{dxy}
O/D
demand
pattern link load
pattern
update for congested
networks
Dr. Anna Nagurney FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

13. Transportation Planning Process
Phase III - Travel Forecasts
Extrapolation - to predict parameters for which we have data from
Phase I.
Data from Phase I may be crude.
Phase IV - Network Evaluation
Goal is to compare networks.
What is the traffic that will be generated by the 3 or 4 networks
- evaluation of cost + benefits.
Dr. Anna Nagurney FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

14. Amherst Area View from Mt. Sugarloaf
Travel Monkeys’ Gallery
Dr. Anna Nagurney FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

15. References
⇒ Beckmann M., McGuire C.B., Winsten C.B. (1956) Studies in the
Economics of Transportation. Yale University Press, New Haven,
Connecticut; also published as Rand-RM-1488-PR, Rand Corporation,
Santa Monica, CA, May 12, 1955
http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/archive/reprints/specpub-BMW.pdf
⇒ Sheffi Y. (1985) Urban Transportation Networks: Equilibrium Analysis
with Mathematical Programming Methods. Prentice-Hall, Englewood
Cliffs, New Jersey
http://web.mit.edu/sheffi/www/selectedMedia/sheffi urban trans networks.pdf
⇒ Nagurney A. (1993) Network Economics: A Variational Inequality
Approach. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, Massachusetts
http://supernet.som.umass.edu/bookser/netbook.htm
⇒ Nagurney A. (2002) Network Economics (Fulbright Lectures)
http://supernet.som.umass.edu/austria lectures/fulmain.html
Dr. Anna Nagurney FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1

16. Additional Reading
Pocket Guide to Transportation (2008) by Bureau of Transportation
Statistics
http://www.bts.gov/publications/pocket guide to transportation/2008/pdf/entire.pdf
For additional background material, see the Virtual Center for
Supernetworks website:
http://supernet.som.umass.edu
Dr. Anna Nagurney FOMGT 341 Transportation and Logistics - Lecture 1