In the early days of product development, the technology is inferior and lacking in performance. The focus is very much on the technology itself. The users are enthusiast who like the idea of the product, find use for it, and except the lack of performance. Then as the product becomes more mature, other factors become important, such as price, design, features, portability. The product moves from being a technology to become a consumer item, and even a community. In this lecture we explore the change from technology focus to consumer focus, and look at why people stand in line overnight to buy the latest gadgets.

1. LECTURE L06
DIFFUSION OF TECHNOLOGY

2. Why is it that good products can fail and inferior – “good enough”
products can succeed?
What are the customers really buying?
Edison Phonograph Sony Betamax Apple Lisa

3. Menlo Park
1876-1881
Tomas Edison

4. Edison Phonograph Victor Talking Machine’s Victrola

6. Enrico Caruso
1873-1921

7. Edison’s ideas for the phonograph
1. Letter writing and all kinds of dictation
2. Phonographic books, which will speak to blind people
3. The teaching of elocution.
4. Reproduction of music.
5. The "Family Record” ... and of the last words of dying persons.
6. Music-boxes and toys.
7. Clocks that should announce... time for going home, going to meals, etc.
8. The preservation of languages
9. Educational purposes
10. Connection with the telephone
http://memory.loc.gov/ammem/edhtml/edcyldr.html

8. Edison Phonograph Victor Talking Machine’s Victrola

9. Phonograph conclusion:
Customers wanted music by their favourite singers - the stars
Disk are more convenient

10. Porn Industry
Licensing Issues
Betamax standard tape was 60
minutes while VHS was 2 hours

11. Betamax conclusion:
Customers wanted to record and/or rent movies
Legal issues also played some part
And the Porn Industry was forced to adopt VHS

12. Development started 1978
Release 1983
Sold 100.000 machines
Featured preemptive multi-
tasking OS with Graphical
User Interface

13. Lisa conclusion:
The vision was right
Technology just was not there
Too many features

14. Customer Motivations
Customer are not always buying products for the reason
the inventor thinks

16. VisiCalc

17. Technological change is relatively easy

18. It’s the social, organisational and cultural change that is hard

19. Innovations that will transform the world

20. Self-driving car

22. Diffusion of self-driving cars

24. Robotics

26. MOOCs

28. The Snap Generation

30. Snapchat works pretty much as fact to face communication: we talk in
real time and the moment is gone
Snapchat is about attention - now
Snapchat has over 100 million active users, 7
billion daily video views
Diffusion was fast: 10 million users in 1 year
Reason: Teenagers fled Facebook since Mom
was there. 1) It is not cool to be with your friends
in the same club as Mom, 2) You want to lock your
room
Source: Gary Veynerchuck

32. Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
Diffusion of Innovation

33. Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
TECHNOLOGY
CONSUMER

34. In the early days
The innovators and technology
enthusiasts drive the market
They demand technology
Small percentage of the market
In the later days
The pragmatists and conservatives
dominate; they want solutions and
convenience
The big market
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation

35. In the early days
THEY BUY FOR THE
WHY
In the later days
THEY BUY FOR THE
WHAT
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation

36. Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
VISIONARIES
WHY

37. Why is Apple so
successful when other
companies fail?

38. APPLE WAS IRRELEVANT AND
ALMOST BANKRUPT IN 1997
IN 2012 IT WAS THE MOST
VALUABLE COMPANY
IN THE WORLD

42. image: cultformac

43. AAPL Apple stock from 1997 to now

45. Brain
NEO CORTX:
RATIONAL, ANALITICAL
THOUGHT, LANGUAGE
LIMBRIC SYSTEM:
FEELINGS, TRUST, LOYLTY,
BEHAVIOUR, DECISION
MAKING
REPTILIAN:
INSTINCTS, HUNGER, DANGER

46. Start with Why: How Great Leaders Inspire Action
Simon Sinek

48. FORMULA FOR SUCCESS?
1. Strong funding
2. Right people
3. Market conditions
Is this all it takes?

49. Samuel Pierpont Langley

51. Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
VISIONARIES
WHY

52. Source: Geoffrey A. Moore: Crossing the chasm
Crossing the Chasm
The change in customers as technology matures
Crossing the chasm – or the Tipping point

54. What triggers the tipping point?

55. What caused the tipping point for the iPod?
Apple said it sold a record 22.7 million iPods,
which commands a 70% share of the U.S. market
for music players. (source: LA times)

58. Apple iPod Sales

61. Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Technology Trends

63. Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Predicting the Future
All important technologies go through four states, or at least four
stages, in their lives. Each stage can be seen as a collision, with
something else. The stages are:
1. Critical Price
2. Critical Mass
3. Displace another technology
4. Become nearly free
Theory of Predicting the Future

64. NEXT
Becoming invisible