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LECTURE L06
DIFFUSION OF TECHNOLOGY
Why is it that good products can fail and inferior – “good enough”
products can succeed?

What are the customers really bu...
Menlo Park

1876-1881
Tomas Edison
Edison Phonograph Victor Talking Machine’s Victrola
Enrico Caruso 

1873-1921
Edison’s ideas for the phonograph
1. Letter writing and all kinds of dictation

2. Phonographic books, which will speak to...
Edison Phonograph Victor Talking Machine’s Victrola
Phonograph conclusion:
Customers wanted music by their favourite singers - the stars
Disk are more convenient
Porn Industry
Licensing Issues
Betamax standard tape was 60
minutes while VHS was 2 hours
Betamax conclusion:
Customers wanted to record and/or rent movies
Legal issues also played some part
And the Porn Industry...
Development started 1978
Release 1983
Sold 100.000 machines
Featured preemptive multi-

tasking OS with Graphical
User Int...
Lisa conclusion:
The vision was right
Technology just was not there
Too many features
Customer Motivations
Customer are not always buying products for the reason
the inventor thinks
VisiCalc
Technological change is relatively easy
It’s the social, organisational and cultural change that is hard
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
Diffusion of Innovation
TECHNOLOGY
CONSUMER
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
In the early days
The innovators and technology
enthusiasts drive the market
They demand technology
Small percentage of th...
In the early days
THEY BUY FOR THE
WHY
In the later days
THEY BUY FOR THE
WHAT
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of...
VISIONARIES
WHY
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
Innovations that will transform the world
Self-driving car
MOOC - massively open online courses
Why is Apple so
successful when other
companies fail?
APPLE WAS IRRELEVANT AND 

ALMOST BACKRUPT IN 1997
IN 2012 IT WAS THE MOST 

VALUABLE COMPANY 

IN THE WORLD
image:	
  cultformac
AAPL Apple stock from 1997 to now
Brain NEO CORTX: RATIONAL, 

ANALITICAL THOUGHT, LANGUAGE
LIMBRIC SYSTEM: FEELINGS, TRUST, LOYLTY,
BEHAVIOUR, DECISION MAK...
Start with Why: How Great Leaders Inspire Action

Simon Sinek
FORMULA FOR SUCCESS?

1. Strong funding

2. Right people

3. Market conditions
Is this all it takes?
Samuel Pierpont Langley
Technology Adoption Life Cycle
VISIONARIES
Source:	
  Geoffrey	
  A.	
  Moore:	
  Crossing	
  the	
  chasm
Crossing the Chasm
The	
  change	
  in	
  customers	
  as	...
What triggers the tipping point?
What caused the tipping point for the iPod?
Apple	
  said	
  it	
  sold	
  a	
  record	
  22.7	
  million	
  iPods,	
  
wh...
Apple	
  iPod	
  Sales
NEXT
BECOMING INVISIBLE
L06 Diffusion of Innovation
L06 Diffusion of Innovation
L06 Diffusion of Innovation
L06 Diffusion of Innovation
L06 Diffusion of Innovation
L06 Diffusion of Innovation
L06 Diffusion of Innovation
L06 Diffusion of Innovation
L06 Diffusion of Innovation
L06 Diffusion of Innovation
L06 Diffusion of Innovation
L06 Diffusion of Innovation
L06 Diffusion of Innovation
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In the early days of product development, the technology is inferior and lacking in performance. The focus is very much on the technology itself. The users are enthusiast who like the idea of the product, find use for it, and except the lack of performance. Then as the product becomes more mature, other factors become important, such as price, design, features, portability. The product moves from being a technology to become a consumer item, and even a community.

In this lecture we explore the change from technology focus to consumer focus, and look at why people stand in line overnight to buy the latest gadgets.

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L06 Diffusion of Innovation

  1. 1. LECTURE L06 DIFFUSION OF TECHNOLOGY
  2. 2. Why is it that good products can fail and inferior – “good enough” products can succeed? What are the customers really buying?
  3. 3. Menlo Park 1876-1881 Tomas Edison
  4. 4. Edison Phonograph Victor Talking Machine’s Victrola
  5. 5. Enrico Caruso 1873-1921
  6. 6. Edison’s ideas for the phonograph 1. Letter writing and all kinds of dictation 2. Phonographic books, which will speak to blind people 3. The teaching of elocution. 4. Reproduction of music. 5. The "Family Record” ... and of the last words of dying persons. 6. Music-boxes and toys. 7. Clocks that should announce... time for going home, going to meals, etc. 8. The preservation of languages 9. Educational purposes 10. Connection with the telephone http://memory.loc.gov/ammem/edhtml/edcyldr.html
  7. 7. Edison Phonograph Victor Talking Machine’s Victrola
  8. 8. Phonograph conclusion: Customers wanted music by their favourite singers - the stars Disk are more convenient
  9. 9. Porn Industry Licensing Issues Betamax standard tape was 60 minutes while VHS was 2 hours
  10. 10. Betamax conclusion: Customers wanted to record and/or rent movies Legal issues also played some part And the Porn Industry was forced to adopt VHS
  11. 11. Development started 1978 Release 1983 Sold 100.000 machines Featured preemptive multi-
 tasking OS with Graphical User Interface
  12. 12. Lisa conclusion: The vision was right Technology just was not there Too many features
  13. 13. Customer Motivations Customer are not always buying products for the reason the inventor thinks
  14. 14. VisiCalc
  15. 15. Technological change is relatively easy
  16. 16. It’s the social, organisational and cultural change that is hard
  17. 17. Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation Diffusion of Innovation
  18. 18. TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
  19. 19. In the early days The innovators and technology enthusiasts drive the market They demand technology Small percentage of the market In the later days The pragmatists and conservatives dominate; they want solutions and convenience The big market Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
  20. 20. In the early days THEY BUY FOR THE WHY In the later days THEY BUY FOR THE WHAT Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
  21. 21. VISIONARIES WHY Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
  22. 22. Innovations that will transform the world
  23. 23. Self-driving car
  24. 24. MOOC - massively open online courses
  25. 25. Why is Apple so successful when other companies fail?
  26. 26. APPLE WAS IRRELEVANT AND 
 ALMOST BACKRUPT IN 1997 IN 2012 IT WAS THE MOST 
 VALUABLE COMPANY 
 IN THE WORLD
  27. 27. image:  cultformac
  28. 28. AAPL Apple stock from 1997 to now
  29. 29. Brain NEO CORTX: RATIONAL, 
 ANALITICAL THOUGHT, LANGUAGE LIMBRIC SYSTEM: FEELINGS, TRUST, LOYLTY, BEHAVIOUR, DECISION MAKING REPTILIAN: INSTINCTS, 
 HUNGER, DANGER
  30. 30. Start with Why: How Great Leaders Inspire Action
 Simon Sinek
  31. 31. FORMULA FOR SUCCESS? 1. Strong funding 2. Right people 3. Market conditions Is this all it takes?
  32. 32. Samuel Pierpont Langley
  33. 33. Technology Adoption Life Cycle VISIONARIES
  34. 34. Source:  Geoffrey  A.  Moore:  Crossing  the  chasm Crossing the Chasm The  change  in  customers  as  technology  matures   Crossing  the  chasm  –  or  the  Tipping  point  
  35. 35. What triggers the tipping point?
  36. 36. What caused the tipping point for the iPod? Apple  said  it  sold  a  record  22.7  million  iPods,   which  commands  a  70%  share  of  the  U.S.  market   for  music  players.  (source:  LA  times)
  37. 37. Apple  iPod  Sales
  38. 38. NEXT BECOMING INVISIBLE
  • aertemel

    Jan. 28, 2016

In the early days of product development, the technology is inferior and lacking in performance. The focus is very much on the technology itself. The users are enthusiast who like the idea of the product, find use for it, and except the lack of performance. Then as the product becomes more mature, other factors become important, such as price, design, features, portability. The product moves from being a technology to become a consumer item, and even a community. In this lecture we explore the change from technology focus to consumer focus, and look at why people stand in line overnight to buy the latest gadgets.

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