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www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 1
Verification of a Bombing
Kramatorsk, Ukraine
By Pierre Vaux, Benjamin Strick, and Benjamin Den Braber
October 2022
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 2
Verification of a Bombing: Kramatorsk, Ukraine
By Pierre Vaux, Benjamin Strick, Benjamin Den Braber
The Centre for Information Resilience’s Eyes on Russia (EoR) is an open-source investigations
project to map, document and verify significant incidents during the conflict in Ukraine.
Our aim is to provide reliable information on the conflict through verified open-source evidence.
The lead resource of the Eyes on Russia project is the Russia-Ukraine Monitor Map.
This investigation is a result of that work. The verification seen in this report will be logged in a
central database where the material is archived for future use by researchers, reporters as well
as justice and accountability bodies.
PLEASE NOTE:
This report contains descriptions of graphic imagery / violence which some readers may find
distressing.
KEY EVENT DETAILS
● Location of Incident:
○ Kramatorsk Train Station [Краматорськ]: 48.725836, 37.543074
○ Launch site near Shakhtne [Шахтне]: 47.977251, 38.313429
● Date/Time of Incident: Around 10:30am April 8, 2022.
● Alleged Perpetrator(s) and/or Involvement: Russian Military
● Eyes on Russia Conclusions:
○ Satellite imagery from April 8, 2022 shows smoke plume from launch site
○ Verified footage shows two rockets fired from the same location
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 3
1. Introduction
“I saw that my daughter had no trainers on her feet, then I realised that she had no
feet.”
— Survivor of the Kramatorsk attack interviewed by ODIHR1
On the morning of 8 April 2022, at about 10:30 am, a missile strike hit a railway station in
Kramatorsk in Ukraine’s Donetsk region.
According to a report by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)2
, there
were approximately four thousand civilians at the station at the time of the strike. According to the
report, the overwhelming majority were waiting for a train to flee the war zone.
The strike was reported to have killed 59 civilians, injuring more than 100. Some of those who
died were children.
The explosion at the station was caused by a Tochka-U missile, which was later identified to be
equipped with cluster munitions.
This attack is clear evidence of Russia’s indiscriminate attacks on civilian targets, which are meant
to be protected by International Humanitarian Laws3
.
Despite evidence to the contrary, Russia’s Ministry of Defence denied4
responsibility for the
attack. Instead, Russia claimed the attack was a ‘provocation’ by Ukraine. In the citation of their
allegations, the Russian MOD claimed the “Russian Armed Forces did not have or plan to carry
out any firing missions in Kramatorsk city on April 8” and “that Tochka-U tactical missiles are used
by Ukrainian Armed Forces only”.
1
https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/c/d/523081_0.pdf
2
https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/c/d/523081_0.pdf
3
https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/customary-ihl/eng/docs/v1_rul_rule11
4
https://www.facebook.com/mod.mil.rus/posts/pfbid025mJ3cdW1iV9cTRH65otgZi9vVMNUfUj8tNWfAJZtmxYuUXhrLKmVrtRBge1itr
UXl?__cft__[0]=AZW3m0OEf1vvLg2z0P6jdpXFSzwwqQMZ35sOBxXcXDgFOHPyBFbJjT9H7oLZ84VfAwoTtio1-
mepvLB5OzzrLrNdAF8uE9BD4J0S9YpiOjRwT7VFnF9ISLsgTm0kIDDAL8UrYzgUtyZDFuCNPGFwv1ij&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 4
The Russian Government’s attempts to distort the truth around what happened in Kramatorsk
were echoed by supporters and pro-Russian outlets online, further spreading mistruths about the
event.
This report uses open-source analysis to break down an exact timeline of what happened on 8
April, and who is responsible.
Figure 1: Geographical look at the launch location in respect to the location of Kramatorsk.
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 5
2. Timeline: What happened?
To analyse the sequence of events that resulted in the attack on Kramatorsk train station, CIR
has constructed a timeline going back to the previous day to show a pattern of ballistic missile
launches in the area, and the targeting of railways.
The data for this timeline is drawn exclusively from publicly available sources online.
April 6
Ukraine’s Ministry for the Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories calls5
for
civilians to evacuate the Donetsk, Luhansk, and part of the Kharkiv oblasts.
April 7
10:43-
11:00:
Videos and photos of missile launches near Zuhres6
and Shakhtarsk7
were published and
circulated on social media.
These launches appeared to come from the east of both settlements, with one photo8
likely
showing a launch area in a field between Hirne and Ternove.
11:30: Ukrainian Railways announced9
evacuation timetables from:
• Pokrovsk
• Kramatorsk
• Sloviansk
• Lozove
16:26: Ukrainian Railways reported10
that Russian forces have struck an overpass near
Barvinkove station, Izyum Rayon, Kharkiv Oblast. They warn that trains may be stuck in
Kramatorsk.
5
https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/04/6/7337576/
6
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1511972962349559808
7
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1511977593884532736
8
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1511987278167658496
9
https://hromadske.ua/ru/posts/ukrzaliznycya-naznachila-na-7-aprelya-evakuacionnye-poezda-iz-doneckoj-i-harkovskoj-oblastej
10
https://t.me/zalizni_zminy/427
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 6
17:35: Footage11
shared on social media shows a large number of civilians attempting to evacuate
Kramatorsk via the train station.
21:09: Pro-separatist channel warns against travel by rail for evacuees from Kramatorsk and
surrounding towns12
.
April 8
01:25: Ukrainian Railways reported13
engineers have restored the line and three evacuation trains
have moved past the location of the strike near Barvinkove.
9:01: A member of a local Telegram group in occupied Khartsyzsk shared a video14
of a long
smoke plume following a ballistic arc over the south of the town.
9:23: Another video15
from Khartsyzsk showing a similar missile plume was shared on social
media.
10:12: Viktoria Zhukova, the head of the Russian-controlled administration in Khartsyzsk,
announced16
on her VKontakte account that surface-to-air missiles were being launched
and recommended residents take shelter.
10:15: Russian Ministry of Defence briefing17
claimed “precision missile strikes” had been directed
at Barvinkove, Pokrovsk and Sloviansk railway stations where Ukrainian military forces
were “arriving”.
10:18: A photo, taken in a housing estate on the eastern edge of Zuhres, was published18
on
Telegram showing twin rocket trails rising from the horizon.
10:22: A photo showing twin rocket trails rising was published19
on a different Telegram channel.
This one was taken on the western edge of Shakhtarsk.
11
https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1512106720948019211
12
https://t.me/notes_veterans/2563
13
https://t.me/zalizni_zminy/430
14
https://t.me/khartsyzsk_chat/51937
15
https://twitter.com/_khartsyz_/status/1512315298237583361
16
https://vk.com/wall331209086_8679
17
https://t.me/mod_russia/14136
18
https://t.me/shortDPR/21999 (channel since deleted)
19
https://t.me/chp_donetsk_dnr_ZV/13085 (this post was subsequently deleted after ostensibly pro-Ukrainian activists took over the
channel)
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 7
10:26: A video, filmed in Shakhtarsk, was shared20
on Telegram, showing twin rocket plumes.
10:29: First reports of shelling in Kramatorsk begin to appear on social media21
. Shortly after
(10:32am) accounts report an impact, or ‘arrival’, of apparent missile strikes22
.
10:44: Ukrainian Railways reports that two rockets have struck Kramatorsk railway station, as well
as issuing the first reports of victims23
11:05: Andrei Kamyzhikin, a war propagandist for Russia’s ANNA News and other outlets
including Regnum, posts24
:
“Our sources in Kramatorsk report that, around twenty minutes ago, a strike was conducted
near the railway station.
They also relay reports that yesterday, the Ukrainian armed forces brought military
hardware there.”
20
https://t.me/shortDPR/22000 (channel since deleted)
21
https://twitter.com/SaniOk_/status/1512331674067079173
22
https://twitter.com/ukrpopo76UA/status/1512332538760597506, https://twitter.com/reconstruktor/status/1512332549493858305
23
https://t.me/zalizni_zminy/432
24
https://t.me/diza_donbass/1072?single
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 8
3. Geospatial analysis: Where did this happen?
Available open-source evidence points to multiple potential launch locations, in part due to
significant Russian activity before and after the Kramatorsk attack.
Data gathered from the morning of the strike indicates that several Russian missile instalments
were active.
Location of impact
Using footage2526
shared during the aftermath of the strike on the Kramatorsk Train station,
several points of impact of cluster submunition around the station were discovered, which
indicated contradicting directions of impact and fire. As a result, CIR investigators were unable to
use this methodology to calculate the direction of the fire.
Figure 2: Impact site 1, geolocation of the impact site of cluster submunition outside the Kramatorsk train station
[48.727090, 37.543442].
25
https://twitter.com/BBCJoeInwood/status/1514117324521066505
26
https://twitter.com/k_bezier/status/1512542725903687681
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 9
Figure 3: Impact site 2, geolocation of impact site of cluster submunition at Kramatorsk train station [48.725528,
37.542983]. Indicating a different impact angle as impact site 1.
Similarly, the position of the partially intact Tochka-U rocket booster, found near the scene of the
attack, is of little utility in determining the direction of flight.
Following separation from their payloads, Tochka-U boosters tumble, sometimes through several
complete rotations, before reaching the ground. This can be seen in an example27
of a Ukrainian
strike on Russian ships docked in occupied Berdyansk.
27
https://twitter.com/Tedii69/status/1515287807819931651
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 10
Missiles in flight
On the morning of the attack on Kramatorsk, several photos and videos were uploaded to social
media, showing missiles in flight over Russian-occupied territory to the east of Donetsk city.
Below is a chronological timeline on the content uploaded to social media platforms.
09:01: A member of a local Telegram group in occupied Khartsyzsk shared a video28
of a
long smoke plume following a ballistic arc over the south of the town.
09:23: Another video29
from Khartsyzsk showing a similar missile plume was shared on social
media.
10:12: Viktoria Zhukova, the head of the Russian-controlled administration in Khartsyzsk,
announced30
on her VKontakte account that surface-to-air missiles were being
launched and recommended residents take shelter.
CIR investigators believe that these “surface-to-air missiles” were actually ballistic
missile launches, being described to locals as defensive measures rather than
offensive strikes.
10:18: A photo, taken in a housing estate on the eastern edge of Zuhres, was published31
on
Telegram showing twin rocket trails rising from the horizon.
10:22: A photo showing twin rocket trails rising was published32
on a different Telegram
channel. This one was taken on the western edge of Shakhtarsk.
10:25: A video, filmed near Shakhtarsk, was shared33
by the Tipichny Donetsk Telegram
channel, showing two missiles taking off vertically.
10:26: A video, filmed in Shakhtarsk, was shared34
on Telegram, showing twin rocket plumes.
28
https://t.me/khartsyzsk_chat/51937
29
https://twitter.com/_khartsyz_/status/1512315298237583361
30
https://vk.com/wall331209086_8679
31
https://t.me/shortDPR/21999 (channel since deleted)
32
https://t.me/chp_donetsk_dnr_ZV/13085 (this post was subsequently deleted after ostensibly pro-Ukrainian activists took over the
channel)
33
https://t.me/itsdonetsk/11817
34
https://t.me/shortDPR/22000 (channel since deleted)
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 11
10:29: First reports on social media35
of impacts in Kramatorsk.
It must be assumed that there is some delay between a video or photo being captured and being
shared on a social media channel. Therefore, the timings are inevitably later than the events took
place, and the upload times may be staggered.
Of the five sightings, CIR investigators have grouped them into three:
1. Two views of missiles in flight from the south of Khartsyzk, either just before or after
9:00 am local time.
2. A photo of twin smoke plumes to the southeast of Zuhres, uploaded by 10:18 am.
3. Three sightings of rockets in flight from the southwest of Shakhtarsk, which were uploaded
at 10:22 am, 10:25 am, and 10:26 am.
The sightings from Group 3, is the likely location from where the missile which hit the train station
at Kramatorsk was fired.
Figure 4: Different groups of social media evidence identifying possible launch sites.
35
https://twitter.com/SaniOk_/status/1512331674067079173
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 12
4. Geospatial analysis: Where did the attack come from?
A European Space Agency’s Sentinel 2 satellite36
passed over the area, from which the missiles
were fired, at 11:36 am local time37
- around an hour after the strike on Kramatorsk.
CIR investigators used the lines of sight in the footage analysis above to search the satellite
imagery for any indications of launch sites.
Two sites were found with large plumes of smoke from burning grass - a common sight after
missile launches.
These burn sites line up with Groups 1 and 3 of the launch images posted on Telegram that
morning, group 3 being the most likely launch site of the rocket.
Launch site for attack on Kramatorsk
While there were a number of videos circulating online, and a number of fires identified on satellite
imagery as potential launch sites, there is one clear site that shows both smoke from where the
launch occurred on 8 April on satellite imagery38
, and also matches footage filmed of missile
launches.
The largest plume can be seen39
coming from a site next to an ash pond40
at the Zuhres power
station, near the village of Shakhtne, as seen in figure 5.
36
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-
playground/?source=S2&lat=47.97461079484555&lng=38.29864025115967&zoom=14&preset=1-NATURAL-
COLOR&layers=B01,B02,B03&maxcc=100&gain=1.0&gamma=1.0&time=2021-10-01%7C2022-04-
08&atmFilter=&showDates=false
37
Identified from timestamp of satellite imagery.
38
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-
playground/?source=S2&lat=47.97461079484555&lng=38.29864025115967&zoom=14&preset=1-NATURAL-
COLOR&layers=B01,B02,B03&maxcc=100&gain=1.0&gamma=1.0&time=2021-10-01%7C2022-04-
08&atmFilter=&showDates=false
39
https://sentinelshare.page.link/6xYs
40
https://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=47.985326&lon=38.326664&z=14&m=w&show=/4892072/ru/%D0%A8%D0%BB%D0%B0%D
0%BC%D0%BE%D0%BE%D1%82%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA-
%D0%97%D1%83%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B9-%D0%A2%D0%AD%D0%A1
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 13
Figure 5: Sentinel-2 satellite image showing smoke plume from April 8, 2022. Location: 47.977251, 38.313429.
The images that line up with this launch site were uploaded only minutes before the first reports
of strikes at Kramatorsk, so this is a good candidate for the location of the launch.
The location can be seen below, relative to the area of the strike.
Figure 6: Geographical look at launch location in respect to location of Kramatorsk.
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 14
Further evidence archived by CIR investigators shows the launch site, which matches the exact
location of where the smoke plumes were seen in the Sentinel imagery from 8 April. This footage
was geolocated by CIR investigators however the exact location has been withheld for safety
reasons.
Figure 7: At least two missiles seen in footage uploaded on the morning of April 8, 2022 from the location of the ash
pit [47.977251, 38.313429].
This footage in figure 7, showing the missile launch, and filmed on the same day at about the
same time as the strike on the Kramatorsk train station can be linked to the launch site seen in
the Sentinel satellite imagery from April 8 as seen below.
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 15
Figure 8: Indication of footage showing missiles launched and smoke plume seen in satellite imagery from 8 April,
2022.
The footage, showing the missile launch, was uploaded to Telegram at 10:25am Ukraine time,
and was archived on the Wayback Machine41
(note time difference by two hours due to UK time
archival of the web page). Screenshots of the post, as seen in figure 9, show two clear smoke
plumes from missiles being launched.
41
https://archive.ph/4ONGQ
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 16
Figure 9: Timestamp of footage [08:25am UK time] showing launch of missile one [left] and two [right].
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 17
Other launch sites
A second location, lining up with images from group 1, was identified in a field42
just south of
Khartsyzk.
Figure 10: Sentinel-2 image showing burning field, south of Khartsyzk, lining up with launch location group 1
[47.99681, 38.15878].
A false-colour rendering43
of this image, accentuating the near-infrared wavelengths, makes the
source of the smoke plume clear as a burning field.
42
https://sentinelshare.page.link/TyQp
43
https://sentinelshare.page.link/GdYq
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 18
Figure 11: Sentinel-2 image showing burning field south of Khartsyzk [47.99681, 38.15878].
CIR was also able to use this same satellite imagery to identify a third launch site related to activity
observed a day earlier, on 7 April.
Two images were published that day that showed similar rocket plumes to those seen before the
Kramatorsk attack:
• 10:43 am:
o Video published to social media of a launch trail originating from the area South-
east of Shakhtarsk44
.
44
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1511972962349559808
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 19
Figure 12: image published on social media of a launch trail originating from the area South-east of Shakhtarsk,
Donetsk heading Northwest [in the direction of Kramatorsk]. Geolocated at the Zuivska power station [48.033028,
38.290222].
• 11:40 am:
o An image published to social media of a launch trail originating from a site in close
proximity to the village of Ternove, South-east of Shakhtarsk45
.
Using the same Sentinel satellite imagery collected on 8 April, CIR was able to verify the location
of this image as a field east of Shakhtarsk and South of Hirne.
45
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1511987278167658496
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 20
Figure 13: Geolocation of missile launch from the field [47.99681, 38.15878].
Analysis of this area46
using the same Sentinel-2 satellite imagery collected the following day, on
8 April, revealed darkened areas of grass that were not present on a previous Sentinel-2 pass on
4 April - meaning these burn marks were likely created in the days between those dates.
This fits with an April 7 launch from this site.
46
https://sentinelshare.page.link/7Q9C
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 21
Figure 14: Sentinel image taken on 3 April showing no burn marks in the identified field [48.02386, 38.52871].
Figure 15: Sentinel image taken on 8 April, showing new burn marks, indicating possible launch site [48.02386,
38.52871].
All three of these locations are well within Russian-occupied territory. The westernmost of these
launch sites lies nearly 35 kilometers from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled territory since 2014.
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 22
5. Debunked: Russia claims the Tochka-U missiles are only being used
by Ukraine
The Russian Ministry of Defence denied responsibility for the Kramatorsk's strike on the train
station by stating: “Tochka-U tactical missiles are used by Ukrainian Armed Forces only”47
.
Open-source information shows evidence to the contrary. Russia does have Tochka-U missiles
in its arsenal, and some were marked with a ‘V’ symbol showing they were meant for use in
Ukraine.
Footage shared on 11 July by Belarusian Hajun Project shows a Tochka-U marked with a ‘Z’
symbol in the town of Lutuhyne in Luhansk Oblast, heading west48
. Tochka-U systems have also
been spotted in Melitopol49
.
Figure 16: Russian Tochka-U systems seen heading west in the town of Lutuhyne, Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine.
[48.399588, 39.195983].
47
https://www.facebook.com/mod.mil.rus/posts/pfbid025mJ3cdW1iV9cTRH65otgZi9vVMNUfUj8tNWfAJZtmxYuUXhrLKmVrtRBge1itr
UXl
48
https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1546462058400604160?s=20&t=9vy4PX-rjv5pnHW5E-d32A
49
https://defence-blog.com/russian-tochka-u-ballistic-missiles-spotted-in-occupied-
melitopol/#:~:text=The%20Thocka%2DU%20is%20a,facilities%2C%20troop%20concentrations%20and%20airfields.
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 23
Figure 17: Geolocation of footage showing Russian Tochka-U systems seen heading west in the town of Lutuhyne,
Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine. [48.399588, 39.195983].
Despite Russia's denial of using Tochka-U missiles, content publicly shared on social media,
collected and verified by CIR investigators, shows Russian Tochka-U missiles in Lutuhyne,
Luhansk Oblast, a town which had already been under Russian occupation prior to the 2022
invasion.
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 24
6. Conclusion
User generated content, collected, geolocated and verified by CIR investigators shows three
launches of rockets, within the timeframe that the Kramatorsk train station was struck by a
Tochka-U missile, killing 59 civilians.
The plumes of smoke indicate a trajectory towards the Kramatorsk area and all three of these
launch locations are well within Russian-occupied territory.
The westernmost of these launch sites lies nearly 35 kilometres from the nearest Ukrainian-
controlled territory since 2014.
Despite Russia's denial of using Tochka-U missiles, open-source information shows evidence to
the contrary. Russia does indeed have Tochka-U missiles in its arsenal and were observed in
the Luhansk Oblast during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The open-source evidence collected and verified by CIR investigators points toward Russia being
the likely perpetrator of the missile strike killing 59 civilians at the Kramatorsk train station.
www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 25

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Verification of a Kramatorsk Train Station Bombing

  • 1. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 1 Verification of a Bombing Kramatorsk, Ukraine By Pierre Vaux, Benjamin Strick, and Benjamin Den Braber October 2022
  • 2. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 2 Verification of a Bombing: Kramatorsk, Ukraine By Pierre Vaux, Benjamin Strick, Benjamin Den Braber The Centre for Information Resilience’s Eyes on Russia (EoR) is an open-source investigations project to map, document and verify significant incidents during the conflict in Ukraine. Our aim is to provide reliable information on the conflict through verified open-source evidence. The lead resource of the Eyes on Russia project is the Russia-Ukraine Monitor Map. This investigation is a result of that work. The verification seen in this report will be logged in a central database where the material is archived for future use by researchers, reporters as well as justice and accountability bodies. PLEASE NOTE: This report contains descriptions of graphic imagery / violence which some readers may find distressing. KEY EVENT DETAILS ● Location of Incident: ○ Kramatorsk Train Station [Краматорськ]: 48.725836, 37.543074 ○ Launch site near Shakhtne [Шахтне]: 47.977251, 38.313429 ● Date/Time of Incident: Around 10:30am April 8, 2022. ● Alleged Perpetrator(s) and/or Involvement: Russian Military ● Eyes on Russia Conclusions: ○ Satellite imagery from April 8, 2022 shows smoke plume from launch site ○ Verified footage shows two rockets fired from the same location
  • 3. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 3 1. Introduction “I saw that my daughter had no trainers on her feet, then I realised that she had no feet.” — Survivor of the Kramatorsk attack interviewed by ODIHR1 On the morning of 8 April 2022, at about 10:30 am, a missile strike hit a railway station in Kramatorsk in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. According to a report by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)2 , there were approximately four thousand civilians at the station at the time of the strike. According to the report, the overwhelming majority were waiting for a train to flee the war zone. The strike was reported to have killed 59 civilians, injuring more than 100. Some of those who died were children. The explosion at the station was caused by a Tochka-U missile, which was later identified to be equipped with cluster munitions. This attack is clear evidence of Russia’s indiscriminate attacks on civilian targets, which are meant to be protected by International Humanitarian Laws3 . Despite evidence to the contrary, Russia’s Ministry of Defence denied4 responsibility for the attack. Instead, Russia claimed the attack was a ‘provocation’ by Ukraine. In the citation of their allegations, the Russian MOD claimed the “Russian Armed Forces did not have or plan to carry out any firing missions in Kramatorsk city on April 8” and “that Tochka-U tactical missiles are used by Ukrainian Armed Forces only”. 1 https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/c/d/523081_0.pdf 2 https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/c/d/523081_0.pdf 3 https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/customary-ihl/eng/docs/v1_rul_rule11 4 https://www.facebook.com/mod.mil.rus/posts/pfbid025mJ3cdW1iV9cTRH65otgZi9vVMNUfUj8tNWfAJZtmxYuUXhrLKmVrtRBge1itr UXl?__cft__[0]=AZW3m0OEf1vvLg2z0P6jdpXFSzwwqQMZ35sOBxXcXDgFOHPyBFbJjT9H7oLZ84VfAwoTtio1- mepvLB5OzzrLrNdAF8uE9BD4J0S9YpiOjRwT7VFnF9ISLsgTm0kIDDAL8UrYzgUtyZDFuCNPGFwv1ij&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R
  • 4. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 4 The Russian Government’s attempts to distort the truth around what happened in Kramatorsk were echoed by supporters and pro-Russian outlets online, further spreading mistruths about the event. This report uses open-source analysis to break down an exact timeline of what happened on 8 April, and who is responsible. Figure 1: Geographical look at the launch location in respect to the location of Kramatorsk.
  • 5. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 5 2. Timeline: What happened? To analyse the sequence of events that resulted in the attack on Kramatorsk train station, CIR has constructed a timeline going back to the previous day to show a pattern of ballistic missile launches in the area, and the targeting of railways. The data for this timeline is drawn exclusively from publicly available sources online. April 6 Ukraine’s Ministry for the Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories calls5 for civilians to evacuate the Donetsk, Luhansk, and part of the Kharkiv oblasts. April 7 10:43- 11:00: Videos and photos of missile launches near Zuhres6 and Shakhtarsk7 were published and circulated on social media. These launches appeared to come from the east of both settlements, with one photo8 likely showing a launch area in a field between Hirne and Ternove. 11:30: Ukrainian Railways announced9 evacuation timetables from: • Pokrovsk • Kramatorsk • Sloviansk • Lozove 16:26: Ukrainian Railways reported10 that Russian forces have struck an overpass near Barvinkove station, Izyum Rayon, Kharkiv Oblast. They warn that trains may be stuck in Kramatorsk. 5 https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/04/6/7337576/ 6 https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1511972962349559808 7 https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1511977593884532736 8 https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1511987278167658496 9 https://hromadske.ua/ru/posts/ukrzaliznycya-naznachila-na-7-aprelya-evakuacionnye-poezda-iz-doneckoj-i-harkovskoj-oblastej 10 https://t.me/zalizni_zminy/427
  • 6. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 6 17:35: Footage11 shared on social media shows a large number of civilians attempting to evacuate Kramatorsk via the train station. 21:09: Pro-separatist channel warns against travel by rail for evacuees from Kramatorsk and surrounding towns12 . April 8 01:25: Ukrainian Railways reported13 engineers have restored the line and three evacuation trains have moved past the location of the strike near Barvinkove. 9:01: A member of a local Telegram group in occupied Khartsyzsk shared a video14 of a long smoke plume following a ballistic arc over the south of the town. 9:23: Another video15 from Khartsyzsk showing a similar missile plume was shared on social media. 10:12: Viktoria Zhukova, the head of the Russian-controlled administration in Khartsyzsk, announced16 on her VKontakte account that surface-to-air missiles were being launched and recommended residents take shelter. 10:15: Russian Ministry of Defence briefing17 claimed “precision missile strikes” had been directed at Barvinkove, Pokrovsk and Sloviansk railway stations where Ukrainian military forces were “arriving”. 10:18: A photo, taken in a housing estate on the eastern edge of Zuhres, was published18 on Telegram showing twin rocket trails rising from the horizon. 10:22: A photo showing twin rocket trails rising was published19 on a different Telegram channel. This one was taken on the western edge of Shakhtarsk. 11 https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1512106720948019211 12 https://t.me/notes_veterans/2563 13 https://t.me/zalizni_zminy/430 14 https://t.me/khartsyzsk_chat/51937 15 https://twitter.com/_khartsyz_/status/1512315298237583361 16 https://vk.com/wall331209086_8679 17 https://t.me/mod_russia/14136 18 https://t.me/shortDPR/21999 (channel since deleted) 19 https://t.me/chp_donetsk_dnr_ZV/13085 (this post was subsequently deleted after ostensibly pro-Ukrainian activists took over the channel)
  • 7. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 7 10:26: A video, filmed in Shakhtarsk, was shared20 on Telegram, showing twin rocket plumes. 10:29: First reports of shelling in Kramatorsk begin to appear on social media21 . Shortly after (10:32am) accounts report an impact, or ‘arrival’, of apparent missile strikes22 . 10:44: Ukrainian Railways reports that two rockets have struck Kramatorsk railway station, as well as issuing the first reports of victims23 11:05: Andrei Kamyzhikin, a war propagandist for Russia’s ANNA News and other outlets including Regnum, posts24 : “Our sources in Kramatorsk report that, around twenty minutes ago, a strike was conducted near the railway station. They also relay reports that yesterday, the Ukrainian armed forces brought military hardware there.” 20 https://t.me/shortDPR/22000 (channel since deleted) 21 https://twitter.com/SaniOk_/status/1512331674067079173 22 https://twitter.com/ukrpopo76UA/status/1512332538760597506, https://twitter.com/reconstruktor/status/1512332549493858305 23 https://t.me/zalizni_zminy/432 24 https://t.me/diza_donbass/1072?single
  • 8. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 8 3. Geospatial analysis: Where did this happen? Available open-source evidence points to multiple potential launch locations, in part due to significant Russian activity before and after the Kramatorsk attack. Data gathered from the morning of the strike indicates that several Russian missile instalments were active. Location of impact Using footage2526 shared during the aftermath of the strike on the Kramatorsk Train station, several points of impact of cluster submunition around the station were discovered, which indicated contradicting directions of impact and fire. As a result, CIR investigators were unable to use this methodology to calculate the direction of the fire. Figure 2: Impact site 1, geolocation of the impact site of cluster submunition outside the Kramatorsk train station [48.727090, 37.543442]. 25 https://twitter.com/BBCJoeInwood/status/1514117324521066505 26 https://twitter.com/k_bezier/status/1512542725903687681
  • 9. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 9 Figure 3: Impact site 2, geolocation of impact site of cluster submunition at Kramatorsk train station [48.725528, 37.542983]. Indicating a different impact angle as impact site 1. Similarly, the position of the partially intact Tochka-U rocket booster, found near the scene of the attack, is of little utility in determining the direction of flight. Following separation from their payloads, Tochka-U boosters tumble, sometimes through several complete rotations, before reaching the ground. This can be seen in an example27 of a Ukrainian strike on Russian ships docked in occupied Berdyansk. 27 https://twitter.com/Tedii69/status/1515287807819931651
  • 10. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 10 Missiles in flight On the morning of the attack on Kramatorsk, several photos and videos were uploaded to social media, showing missiles in flight over Russian-occupied territory to the east of Donetsk city. Below is a chronological timeline on the content uploaded to social media platforms. 09:01: A member of a local Telegram group in occupied Khartsyzsk shared a video28 of a long smoke plume following a ballistic arc over the south of the town. 09:23: Another video29 from Khartsyzsk showing a similar missile plume was shared on social media. 10:12: Viktoria Zhukova, the head of the Russian-controlled administration in Khartsyzsk, announced30 on her VKontakte account that surface-to-air missiles were being launched and recommended residents take shelter. CIR investigators believe that these “surface-to-air missiles” were actually ballistic missile launches, being described to locals as defensive measures rather than offensive strikes. 10:18: A photo, taken in a housing estate on the eastern edge of Zuhres, was published31 on Telegram showing twin rocket trails rising from the horizon. 10:22: A photo showing twin rocket trails rising was published32 on a different Telegram channel. This one was taken on the western edge of Shakhtarsk. 10:25: A video, filmed near Shakhtarsk, was shared33 by the Tipichny Donetsk Telegram channel, showing two missiles taking off vertically. 10:26: A video, filmed in Shakhtarsk, was shared34 on Telegram, showing twin rocket plumes. 28 https://t.me/khartsyzsk_chat/51937 29 https://twitter.com/_khartsyz_/status/1512315298237583361 30 https://vk.com/wall331209086_8679 31 https://t.me/shortDPR/21999 (channel since deleted) 32 https://t.me/chp_donetsk_dnr_ZV/13085 (this post was subsequently deleted after ostensibly pro-Ukrainian activists took over the channel) 33 https://t.me/itsdonetsk/11817 34 https://t.me/shortDPR/22000 (channel since deleted)
  • 11. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 11 10:29: First reports on social media35 of impacts in Kramatorsk. It must be assumed that there is some delay between a video or photo being captured and being shared on a social media channel. Therefore, the timings are inevitably later than the events took place, and the upload times may be staggered. Of the five sightings, CIR investigators have grouped them into three: 1. Two views of missiles in flight from the south of Khartsyzk, either just before or after 9:00 am local time. 2. A photo of twin smoke plumes to the southeast of Zuhres, uploaded by 10:18 am. 3. Three sightings of rockets in flight from the southwest of Shakhtarsk, which were uploaded at 10:22 am, 10:25 am, and 10:26 am. The sightings from Group 3, is the likely location from where the missile which hit the train station at Kramatorsk was fired. Figure 4: Different groups of social media evidence identifying possible launch sites. 35 https://twitter.com/SaniOk_/status/1512331674067079173
  • 12. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 12 4. Geospatial analysis: Where did the attack come from? A European Space Agency’s Sentinel 2 satellite36 passed over the area, from which the missiles were fired, at 11:36 am local time37 - around an hour after the strike on Kramatorsk. CIR investigators used the lines of sight in the footage analysis above to search the satellite imagery for any indications of launch sites. Two sites were found with large plumes of smoke from burning grass - a common sight after missile launches. These burn sites line up with Groups 1 and 3 of the launch images posted on Telegram that morning, group 3 being the most likely launch site of the rocket. Launch site for attack on Kramatorsk While there were a number of videos circulating online, and a number of fires identified on satellite imagery as potential launch sites, there is one clear site that shows both smoke from where the launch occurred on 8 April on satellite imagery38 , and also matches footage filmed of missile launches. The largest plume can be seen39 coming from a site next to an ash pond40 at the Zuhres power station, near the village of Shakhtne, as seen in figure 5. 36 https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel- playground/?source=S2&lat=47.97461079484555&lng=38.29864025115967&zoom=14&preset=1-NATURAL- COLOR&layers=B01,B02,B03&maxcc=100&gain=1.0&gamma=1.0&time=2021-10-01%7C2022-04- 08&atmFilter=&showDates=false 37 Identified from timestamp of satellite imagery. 38 https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel- playground/?source=S2&lat=47.97461079484555&lng=38.29864025115967&zoom=14&preset=1-NATURAL- COLOR&layers=B01,B02,B03&maxcc=100&gain=1.0&gamma=1.0&time=2021-10-01%7C2022-04- 08&atmFilter=&showDates=false 39 https://sentinelshare.page.link/6xYs 40 https://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=47.985326&lon=38.326664&z=14&m=w&show=/4892072/ru/%D0%A8%D0%BB%D0%B0%D 0%BC%D0%BE%D0%BE%D1%82%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA- %D0%97%D1%83%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B9-%D0%A2%D0%AD%D0%A1
  • 13. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 13 Figure 5: Sentinel-2 satellite image showing smoke plume from April 8, 2022. Location: 47.977251, 38.313429. The images that line up with this launch site were uploaded only minutes before the first reports of strikes at Kramatorsk, so this is a good candidate for the location of the launch. The location can be seen below, relative to the area of the strike. Figure 6: Geographical look at launch location in respect to location of Kramatorsk.
  • 14. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 14 Further evidence archived by CIR investigators shows the launch site, which matches the exact location of where the smoke plumes were seen in the Sentinel imagery from 8 April. This footage was geolocated by CIR investigators however the exact location has been withheld for safety reasons. Figure 7: At least two missiles seen in footage uploaded on the morning of April 8, 2022 from the location of the ash pit [47.977251, 38.313429]. This footage in figure 7, showing the missile launch, and filmed on the same day at about the same time as the strike on the Kramatorsk train station can be linked to the launch site seen in the Sentinel satellite imagery from April 8 as seen below.
  • 15. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 15 Figure 8: Indication of footage showing missiles launched and smoke plume seen in satellite imagery from 8 April, 2022. The footage, showing the missile launch, was uploaded to Telegram at 10:25am Ukraine time, and was archived on the Wayback Machine41 (note time difference by two hours due to UK time archival of the web page). Screenshots of the post, as seen in figure 9, show two clear smoke plumes from missiles being launched. 41 https://archive.ph/4ONGQ
  • 16. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 16 Figure 9: Timestamp of footage [08:25am UK time] showing launch of missile one [left] and two [right].
  • 17. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 17 Other launch sites A second location, lining up with images from group 1, was identified in a field42 just south of Khartsyzk. Figure 10: Sentinel-2 image showing burning field, south of Khartsyzk, lining up with launch location group 1 [47.99681, 38.15878]. A false-colour rendering43 of this image, accentuating the near-infrared wavelengths, makes the source of the smoke plume clear as a burning field. 42 https://sentinelshare.page.link/TyQp 43 https://sentinelshare.page.link/GdYq
  • 18. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 18 Figure 11: Sentinel-2 image showing burning field south of Khartsyzk [47.99681, 38.15878]. CIR was also able to use this same satellite imagery to identify a third launch site related to activity observed a day earlier, on 7 April. Two images were published that day that showed similar rocket plumes to those seen before the Kramatorsk attack: • 10:43 am: o Video published to social media of a launch trail originating from the area South- east of Shakhtarsk44 . 44 https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1511972962349559808
  • 19. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 19 Figure 12: image published on social media of a launch trail originating from the area South-east of Shakhtarsk, Donetsk heading Northwest [in the direction of Kramatorsk]. Geolocated at the Zuivska power station [48.033028, 38.290222]. • 11:40 am: o An image published to social media of a launch trail originating from a site in close proximity to the village of Ternove, South-east of Shakhtarsk45 . Using the same Sentinel satellite imagery collected on 8 April, CIR was able to verify the location of this image as a field east of Shakhtarsk and South of Hirne. 45 https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1511987278167658496
  • 20. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 20 Figure 13: Geolocation of missile launch from the field [47.99681, 38.15878]. Analysis of this area46 using the same Sentinel-2 satellite imagery collected the following day, on 8 April, revealed darkened areas of grass that were not present on a previous Sentinel-2 pass on 4 April - meaning these burn marks were likely created in the days between those dates. This fits with an April 7 launch from this site. 46 https://sentinelshare.page.link/7Q9C
  • 21. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 21 Figure 14: Sentinel image taken on 3 April showing no burn marks in the identified field [48.02386, 38.52871]. Figure 15: Sentinel image taken on 8 April, showing new burn marks, indicating possible launch site [48.02386, 38.52871]. All three of these locations are well within Russian-occupied territory. The westernmost of these launch sites lies nearly 35 kilometers from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled territory since 2014.
  • 22. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 22 5. Debunked: Russia claims the Tochka-U missiles are only being used by Ukraine The Russian Ministry of Defence denied responsibility for the Kramatorsk's strike on the train station by stating: “Tochka-U tactical missiles are used by Ukrainian Armed Forces only”47 . Open-source information shows evidence to the contrary. Russia does have Tochka-U missiles in its arsenal, and some were marked with a ‘V’ symbol showing they were meant for use in Ukraine. Footage shared on 11 July by Belarusian Hajun Project shows a Tochka-U marked with a ‘Z’ symbol in the town of Lutuhyne in Luhansk Oblast, heading west48 . Tochka-U systems have also been spotted in Melitopol49 . Figure 16: Russian Tochka-U systems seen heading west in the town of Lutuhyne, Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine. [48.399588, 39.195983]. 47 https://www.facebook.com/mod.mil.rus/posts/pfbid025mJ3cdW1iV9cTRH65otgZi9vVMNUfUj8tNWfAJZtmxYuUXhrLKmVrtRBge1itr UXl 48 https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1546462058400604160?s=20&t=9vy4PX-rjv5pnHW5E-d32A 49 https://defence-blog.com/russian-tochka-u-ballistic-missiles-spotted-in-occupied- melitopol/#:~:text=The%20Thocka%2DU%20is%20a,facilities%2C%20troop%20concentrations%20and%20airfields.
  • 23. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 23 Figure 17: Geolocation of footage showing Russian Tochka-U systems seen heading west in the town of Lutuhyne, Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine. [48.399588, 39.195983]. Despite Russia's denial of using Tochka-U missiles, content publicly shared on social media, collected and verified by CIR investigators, shows Russian Tochka-U missiles in Lutuhyne, Luhansk Oblast, a town which had already been under Russian occupation prior to the 2022 invasion.
  • 24. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 24 6. Conclusion User generated content, collected, geolocated and verified by CIR investigators shows three launches of rockets, within the timeframe that the Kramatorsk train station was struck by a Tochka-U missile, killing 59 civilians. The plumes of smoke indicate a trajectory towards the Kramatorsk area and all three of these launch locations are well within Russian-occupied territory. The westernmost of these launch sites lies nearly 35 kilometres from the nearest Ukrainian- controlled territory since 2014. Despite Russia's denial of using Tochka-U missiles, open-source information shows evidence to the contrary. Russia does indeed have Tochka-U missiles in its arsenal and were observed in the Luhansk Oblast during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The open-source evidence collected and verified by CIR investigators points toward Russia being the likely perpetrator of the missile strike killing 59 civilians at the Kramatorsk train station.
  • 25. www.info-res.org Centre for Information Resilience 25