Putin's unraveling war plan leaves russia, ukraine in precarious positions https://www.socialpilot.co?fp_ref=roshad51

1. Russia invades Ukraine
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Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said Saturday that Russian forces
have "advanced in some directions" but that Ukrainian defenders are "countering
and ousting the occupiers."
"Obviously, the enemy has advanced in some directions, however, it controls only
small areas. Our defenders are severely countering and ousting the occupiers," he
said in a statement, adding that because of the "slow-down of the offensive pace
and resistance of the Ukrainians, Russia is changing tactics."
"As of today, the Ukrainian sky is the most vulnerable," he said. "The aggressor
uses its aerial and missile potential comprehensively and actively. All types of
aviation are bombing our cities, towns and civilian infrastructure, including critical
infrastructure and dangerous infrastructure, among them -- nuclear and hydro
power plants."
Reznikov said Russian forces were targeting residential apartment buildings,
schools, kindergartens and hospitals. "The enemy is destroying churches and
cathedrals. It is shelling railway stations with thousands of evacuating women and
children," he said.
"These are the tactics of frightened jackals," he said. "I am confident that the
enemy will pay for every life and for every tear."

2. Reznikov said Mariupol, Volnovakha, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Mykolayiv and Kherson
are among the cities where currently the situation is "most complex," adding: "We
really hope that the humanitarian corridor will work and we will be able to evacuate
civilians."
Reznikov said the main efforts of the Russian forces continue to be focused on the
encirclement of Kyiv and suppressing resistance in cities and towns.
Some context: Russia routinely denies causing civilian casualties in Ukraine.
International media and observers have extensively documented civilian casualties
and damage to civilian infrastructure.
02
Russia-Ukraine war latest: Mariupol evacuation paused as
Russian troops failing to observe ceasefire, Ukraine officials
say – live
Reuters reports that Russia’s ministry of defence says forces will stop firing this
morning to allow residents of Mariupol and Volnovakha to safely flee their homes.
It cites Interfax news agency:

3. Russian forces will stop firing at 1000 Moscow time to allow humanitarian corridors
out of the Ukrainian cities of Mariupol and Volnovakha, Russia’s defence ministry
said, Interfax reported.
The mayor of Mariupol earlier warned the city has been “blockaded” by Russian
forces. Mayor Vadym Boychenko said the city has no water, heat or electricity and
that supplies of food are low. “They want to wipe Mariupol and Mariupol residents
off the face of the earth,” the mayor said, describing indiscriminate shelling of
residential areas and hospitals.
The port city, home to 400,000 residents, is a strategic target for Russia. If Russia
were to control the city, this would help it to build a land corridor between Crimea,
which has been occupied by Russia since 2014, and Russian-backed regions of
Luhansk and Donetsk.
The town of Volnovakha has also been subject to some of the heaviest Russian
attacks. Guardian correspondent Emma Graham-Harrison has reported on the dire
situation in the town:
In Volnovakha, the attack is still so intense that dead bodies lie uncollected, says
local MP Dmytro Lubinets. Ukrainians still brave enough to run rescue missions
are going back only for the living.

4. Thousands of them are trapped in basements, with dwindling supplies of food and
water, sheltering from an apparently senseless attack on a town Lubinets says has
no military defenders in its centre. The line of contact is 20km away, he says.
“It never stops, every five minutes there is a mortar landing or artillery shells, some
buildings have been hit by multiple rocket systems,” he said by phone.
“In the city there is not any building which has not suffered from direct or collateral
damage. So some buildings have major destruction, some minor destruction,
some are completely destroyed to the ground.”
Related: ‘90% of houses are damaged’: Russia’s Syria-honed tactics lay Ukraine
towns to waste
03
'No good outcome': Putin's unraveling war plan leaves Russia,
Ukraine in precarious positions
Here's why U.S. officials are questioning Vladimir Putin's mental state as he puts
Russia's nuclear forces on alert. USA TODAY

5. Story HighlightsA week into his war with Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin
is not seeing expected success.
Experts: low morale among Russian troops, fierce Ukrainian pushback forcing him
to rethink strategy.
If Putin wins the initial war, his 190,000 troops aren't enough to control a nation of
44 million.
WASHINGTON – Russian President Vladimir Putin faces a critical juncture in the
week-old war he started in Ukraine.
Bad choices, of his own making, are all he has left, experts say.
Unleash the full fury of firepower he's amassed on Ukrainian cities, and Putin risks
killing thousands of civilians and destroying homes, buildings and roads. Surround
the population centers, choke off water, food and electricity, and Putin assembles
the ingredients for a humanitarian catastrophe. Send in ground forces to take
control, and Putin will invites a blood bath that kills Ukrainians and sends troops in
body bags back to Russia.

6. A building burns after shelling in Kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, March 3, 2022. Russian
forces have escalated their attacks on crowded cities in what Ukraine's leader
called a blatant campaign of terror.
(Photo: Efrem Lukatsky, AP)
Putin's initial plan has unraveled, resting on the assumption that Ukrainian officials
and troops would capitulate quickly. Instead, the spirited resistance from
Ukrainians and poor performance by his own troops has left Putin and his military
commanders frustrated and behind schedule, according to a senior Defense
Department official.
The Pentagon and military experts expect Putin's forces to regroup, encircle cities
and lay siege to them, shelling and bombing them until they surrender. The

7. Russians will likely seize control of the cities. Deep, hardened resistance awaits
them.
More: How Russian attack on Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant unfolded
More: Mapping and tracking Russia's invasion of Ukraine
It won't be an easy fight, said Colin Smith, an expert on the Russian military at the
RAND Corp. If Russia allows citizens to flee along the corridors they've agreed to
establish, they'll leave behind well-armed fighters in cities like Kyiv.
"Then it's kind of a giant Alamo," Smith said. "It's an Alamo they can sustain for
quite a long time if they've got the ammunition. They have the deepest subways in
the world. It's their backyard. They could fight for a very, very long time."

8. A man walks past the remains of Russian military vehicles in Bucha, close to the
capital Kyiv, Ukraine, Tuesday, March 1, 2022.
(Photo: Serhii Nuzhnenko, AP)
There are also indications of poor morale among Russian troops, according to the
Defense official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence
findings. Food and fuel shortages along with poor training have contributed to
morale problems. The main Russian force arrayed against Kyiv remains stuck
about 15 miles from the city's center.
"There's enough evidence that there are Russian soldiers who do not want to fight
and are not on board with killing Ukrainians," Smith said. "There's equipment that's
been left behind, and they didn't just run out of gas. There's equipment that's been

9. just left behind wholesale – perfectly working equipment – with no Russian soldiers
in sight."
A view of damaged building after the shelling is said by Russian forces in
Ukraine's second-biggest city of Kharkiv on March 3, 2022. - Ukraine and Russia
agreed to create humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians on March 3, in a
second round of talks since Moscow invaded last week, negotiators on both sides
said. (Photo by Sergey BOBOK / AFP) (Photo by SERGEY BOBOK/AFP via Getty
Images)
(Photo: SERGEY BOBOK, AFP via Getty Images)
Even if Russian forces overrun Ukraine's major cities, the invasion force invasion
force of 190,000 troops in and around Ukraine is not large enough to control a

10. largely hostile population of more than 40 million Ukrainians, said Seth Jones,
senior vice president and director of the international security program at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"It will likely be difficult for the Russian army to hold territory for long with such a
small ratio of soldiers to local inhabitants," Jones said. "High numbers of troops
are critical for establishing law and order."
More: In Russia, thousands defy police threats to protest the invasion of Ukraine.
Can it make a difference?
Another problem for a Russian force spread too thin: Ukraine's open western
border. U.S. and NATO allies have been funneling weapons, ammunition and
supplies through western Ukraine. In the last week, as much as $240 million worth
of arms, including anti-tank missiles, have crossed into western Ukraine, according
to a second senior Defense Department official.

11. A man looks at the gutted remains of Russian military vehicles on a road in the
town of Bucha, close to the capital Kyiv, Ukraine, Tuesday, March 1, 2022.
(Photo: Serhii Nuzhnenko, AP)
"Russian forces are unable to interdict the growing flow of anti-tank missile
systems, surface-to-air missile systems, fighters, artillery, small arms, ammunition,
and other material flowing into Ukraine," Jones said. "There is virtually no case
since World War II of an occupying army successfully pacifying a local population
when the insurgency has support from a great power."
Smith raised a darker possibility. Putin has no interest in occupying Ukraine.
Instead, Smith said, he wants to crush its government and military, leaving behind

12. a country incapable of aligning with or joining NATO, even though that is not an
imminent possibility.
"I don't think Russia could ever control Ukraine," Smith said. "That was never their
intent. I think they just honestly want Ukraine to be a buffer. Regardless of what
government goes back into Ukraine, Ukraine has been left so decapitated it can’t
field a viable military. It's not going to join NATO, or NATO decides against even
considering it. You've created a wasteland buffer."
More: US and allies look to seize Russian oligarchs' megayachts among sanctions
for Ukraine war
Putin will attempt to convince Russians that the war in Ukraine was waged to
prevent NATO from threatening Russia.
"Can he sustain the spin to stay in power? That will be determined on how long
this conflict goes on," Smith said. "Time is on Ukraine’s side. Every day that you
can stand in his way is in their favor. But it's also another day that another building
and hundreds of civilians are at risk. There's no good outcome at this point."
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