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India Morning Note
    a       g
Mond
   day, August 13, 2012
             t

Dom
  mestic Mark
            kets Snapsh
                      hot                                  Views on markets t
                                                                            today
 Nam of Index
   me                   Aug 9       Aug 10    Change (%)
                                                       )   • India markets ended flat on Frid
                                                                  an         s                      day as gains in
 Sensex             17,560.87     17,557.74     -0.02%       softwware servic exporters such as Infosys on hopes
                                                                             ce          s
                                                             for a revival in demand were offse by declin
                                                                              n                    et           nes in
 CNX Nifty
   X                  5,322.95     5,320.40     -0.05%
                                                             State Bank of India and Tata Mo
                                                                  e          f           d          otors after both
 BSE Mid-cap          6,098.12     6,099.61      0.02%
                                                             disappointed with their qu uarterly earnings. Sent timent
 BSE IT               5,469.36     5,542.33      1.33%       also weakened as Asian shares snapped a fou        ur-day
 BSE Banks          11,991.62     11,889.48     -0.85%       rally on Friday after Chin
                                                                 y                      na's July tra
                                                                                                    ade data fe far
                                                                                                                ell
FII A
    Activity                                     (`Cr)       shor of expect
                                                                 rt          tations, casting doubts on whethe the
                                                                                                    s           er
                                                             sputttering globbal econom will rega
                                                                                        my           ain traction any
                                                                                                                n
 Date
    e                     Buy          Sell        Net
                                                             time soon. Des
                                                                 e           spite the immprovement in deman fornd
 09-A
    Aug                 2,231         1,914        317       risk assets eviddenced this week, deve  elopments in the
 08-A
    Aug                 2,759         1,620       1139       euro zone as w
                                                                 o          well as econ nomic indicaators from major
 Tota Aug
    al                 14,591        10,725       3867       globbal economies will rem  main near-term drivers for
 2012 YTD             388,561      331,395       57167       India stocks. I
                                                                  an          Investors al
                                                                                         lso continue to wait fo the
                                                                                                    e           or
                                                             gove ernment to announce policy reforms after n    newly-
MF A
   Activity                                       (`Cr)
                                                             appo ointed Finan
                                                                             nce Minister on Monday promised fiscal
                                                                                         r
 Date
    e                     Buy          Sell        Net       conssolidation steps and a review of tax regula
                                                                                                    f            ations
 09-A
    Aug                   551          801         -250      that have prove unpopula with foreign investors.
                                                                             ed          ar
 08-A
    Aug                   485          814         -329    • SBI 4.1%, despite a second
                                                                 4                       d-straight surge in qua
                                                                                                               arterly
 Tota Aug
    al                  3,177         3,691        -514      net profit, afte a bigger
                                                                             er         r-than-expec cted rise in bad
                                                                                                                n
 2012 YTD              75,146        83,474       -8328      loans raised fe ears about its non-pe  erforming assets.
                                                             Even before the results we out, UBS downgrade SBI
                                                                 n           e          ere         S           ed
Volu
   ume & Adva
            ances / Dec
                      clines
                                                             to "sell" from "buy", saying a weak monsoon would
                                      NSE          BSE       add to its "alreeady high" non-perform ming loans, while
 Trad
    ding Volume (Cr)                53.08         16.71      expeecting marg gins to decline due to the rising cost of
                                                                                                     t
 Turn
    nover (`Cr)                    10,499         2,192      fund and the potential cuts in th lending rate.
                                                                ds           e                      he
 Advances                             580         1,182      King
                                                                gfisher Airlin
                                                                             nes dropped for a sixth consecutiv day
                                                                                        d                      ve
                                                             to a new record low, ending down 10.9% on          %
 Declines                             898         1,577
                                                             expeectations th ailing carrier will re
                                                                             he                     eport a big April-
 Unchanged                             88          129
                                                             June net loss lat in the da
                                                                e             ter       ay.
 Tota
    al                              1,566         2,888
                                                           • Mark breadth was lower at ~0.75x as investors sold
                                                                 ket
Glob Markets
   bal                                                       large cap stoc
                                                                 e          cks. On pro
                                                                                      ovisional ba
                                                                                                 asis, FIIs b
                                                                                                            bought
 Inde
    ex                     Late Values
                              est             Change (%)
                                                       )     equity of `0.83bn while domestic institutions sold
                                                                                                            s
 DJIA
    A                            13,207.95       0.32%       equity of `5.37b in cash segment.
                                                                            bn
 NAS
   SDAQ                           3,020.86       0.07%     • Asian stocks ar weak tod
                                                                            re         day, after Japan's eco
                                                                                                  J         onomy
 Nikk *
    kei                           8,892.61       0.01%       grew an annua
                                                                w           alized 1.4% in April-June, well below
                                                                                      %
 Hang Seng *                     20,113.44      -0.11%
                                                             forec
                                                                 cast and co
                                                                           ooling sharply from the previous qu
                                                                                                             uarter
                                                             as yen headwinds weigh.
* as o 8.25AM IST
     of
                                                           • We expect a w   weak opening for the Indian ma
                                                                                                 e        arkets
Curr
   rency Snapshot
                                                             todaay, following the early weaknes in the Asian
                                                                                                  ss
 Futu contract
    ure                             Latest     Previous      markets and w   worries tha the econ
                                                                                           at    nomic grow
                                                                                                          wth is
 expire on 29/08/
                /12                 Quote         Close
                                                             fallin but inflat
                                                                  ng         tion is still h
                                                                                           high.
 Indian Rupee per $                  55.41        55.54
 Indian Rupee per €                  68.11        68.30
                                                           Econom and Cor
                                                                mic     rporate Dev
                                                                                  velopments
                                                                                           s
 Indian Rupee per P                  86.75        86.71    • Fitch Ratings, which rece
                                                                 h                    ently lowere India's credit
                                                                                                 ed
                                                             outlo
                                                                 ook to ne egative, has said tha possibili
                                                                                                 at        ity of
 Indian Rupee per Y                  70.70        70.59
                                                             downgrading th country's sovereign rating is more
                                                                            he                   n
* NSE Exchange
    E
                                                             than 50% in the next 12-24 months.
                                                                 n         e          4


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   note Capitals Research
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TOP GAINERS                                          Buzzin Stocks
                                                          ng
(BSE A-Group)
   E                                                 • GMR Infra bo
                                                           R          oard appro  oves raising `2500Cr byr
                    Previous   Currennt   Change       conssidering selling parts in road asset. The comp
                                                                                   n                     pany
 Com
   mpany Name
            e
                    Close(`
                          `)   Price(`
                                     `)      (%)       is al set for C
                                                           lso        Canada coal mining ven nture exit.
 Jain Irrigation      79.65
                          5      83.65      5.02
                                                     • Coal India (CIL) board m
                                                                              may appro
                                                                                      ove model FSA
 Tech Mahindra
    h                761.70
                          0     799.50      4.96       toda
                                                          ay.
 Indr
    raprastha Gas
                s    240.20
                          0     251.85      4.85
                                                     • DLF sells 17.5 a
                                                                      acre NTC land to Lodha developer for
                                                                                           a         rs
 Shre Cement
    ee              3087.00
                          0    3199.00      3.63
                                                       `275
                                                          50Cr.
 WEL
   LCORP              99.55
                          5     103.00      3.47
                                                     • L&T plans to g
                                                          T           get investor for infra projects as an
                                                                                 rs
(BSE Mid-Cap)
   E                                                   alternate to a p
                                                                      partner.
                    Previous   Currennt   Change     • RIL Sells 25% stake in Yem
                                                                                men oil block for $90mn
                                                                                            k         n.
 Com
   mpany Name
            e
                    Close(`
                          `)   Price(`
                                     `)      (%)
 Amt
   tek Auto           86.05      95.95     11.50     • NMD to acqui 26% sta
                                                         DC          ire      ake in Brazilian iron or co
                                                                                                     re
 Amt
   tek India          83.15      90.25       8.54      Amp
                                                         plus for arou
                                                                     und $10-15m.
 Jain Irrigation      79.65      83.65       5.02    • JSPL plans to begin pro
                                                          L                     oduction fro
                                                                                           om two of its
                                                                                                    f
 Indr
    raprastha Gas
                s    240.20     251.85       4.85      overseas coal m
                                                                     mines in Ind
                                                                                donesia and Mozambiqu
                                                                                                    ue.
 Ecle Serv
    erx              748.05     784.00       4.81    • Sint
                                                          tex get no od to raise upto $2
                                                                               e       225mn thro
                                                                                                ough
                                                       FCCCB's/GDRs/A
                                                                    ADRs & `600 via NCD.
                                                                              0Cr
TOP LOSERS
                                                     • IFC to pick up 5 in Jain Irrigation for `250Cr.
                                                                      5%
(BSE A-Group)
   E
                                                     • Deccan Chronicle promote pledge 28.71 % s
                                                                              ers              stake
                    Previous   Currennt   Change       to IC
                                                           CICI Bank.
 Com
   mpany Name
            e
                    Close(`
                          `)   Price(`
                                     `)      (%)
 JPINFRATEC           53.90
                          0      50.00
                                     0      -7.24
                                                     • Ashoka Buildco may sell 35 % sta
                                                                      on               ake in its road
                                                       projects subsidiary for `800Cr.
 SBI                1971.95
                          5    1887.95
                                     5      -4.26
 Pow Finance
   wer               191.00
                          0     182.90
                                     0      -4.24    • RBI rejects to restructure textile co
                                                                                e          ompanies b
                                                                                                    bank
 Ranbaxy Lab         501.80
                          0     483.30
                                     0      -3.69      loan
                                                          n.
 GMR Infra
   R                  22.30
                          0      21.55
                                     5      -3.36    • Goeenka Diamo
                                                                   ond board meets today to cons
                                                                                               sider
                                                       stoc split.
                                                          ck
(BSE Mid-Cap)
   E
                                                     • Plethico Pharm board m
                                                                     ma          meets toda for issue of
                                                                                             ay     e
                    Previous   Currennt   Change
 Com
   mpany Name
            e                                          convvertible war
                                                                      rrants on pr
                                                                                 ref. basis.
                    Close(`
                          `)   Price(`
                                     `)      (%)
 Shre Global Trd
    ee         d      61.35      56.15      -8.48    • Rain Commodit
                                                          n        ties board m
                                                                              meets to app
                                                                                         prove buy b
                                                                                                   back.
 JPINFRATEC           53.90      50.00      -7.24    US markets
 INDI
    IAB POWER         12.70      11.98      -5.67
                                                     US stocks rallied t session h
                                                                       to         highs by the close of a low-
                                                                                             e
 Glod
    dyne Tech        138.15     131.25      -4.99
                                                     volume trading se
                                                           e          ession Friday after earl weakness but
                                                                                  y,         ly          s
 BEM
   ML                301.00     287.55      -4.47
                                                     reboun
                                                          nded on ex   xpectations for more global cen   ntral-
                                                     bank stimulus.




Keyn
   note Capitals Research
                        h                   (resea
                                                 arch@keyno
                                                          otecapitals.net)              (+912
                                                                                            22-3026600
                                                                                                     00)
 



                                                                                                                                     




                                                                                                                                     




 India and Globa Economic Calendar
     a         al       c

   Countries /               Mon
                               nday                     Tuesday                  Wed
                                                                                   dnesday                     Friday

   Reg
     gions                   13-
                               -Aug                     14
                                                         4-Aug                      15-Aug                     17-Aug
                                                                                                               1
   Ind
     dia                                        WPI Inflat
                                                         tion for July                                 Forex Reserves Data
                                                                                                             R
                                                2012
                                                                                                       Bank Lo
                                                                                                             oan Growth




   US                                           Producer Price Index
                                                                   x       Consumer Price              Leading Indicator
                                                                                                             g
                                                (MoM) an (YoY)
                                                        nd                 Index                       (MoM)
                                                Retail Sales (MoM)         Industria Production
                                                                                   al                  Reuters Michigan
                                                                                                             s/
                                                and (YoY)                  (MOM)                       Consummer
                                                                                                       Sentime Index
                                                                                                             ent
                                                Business Inventories
                                                                   s

   Glo
     obal            UK's RICS Housing          UK's Conssumer Price
                                                                   e       UK bank minutes
                                                                                 k
                     Price Balance              Index (MooM) and           and ume
                                                                                 employment
                                                (YoY)                      rate
                     Germany's                  Eurozone Gross
                                                        e's
                     Wholesale Price
                             e                  Domestic Product
                                                        c
                     Index (MoM) and            s.a. (QoQ and (YoY)
                                                        Q)
                     (YoY)
                                                Germany ZEW
                                                        y's
                                                Survey - Economic
                                                Sentimennt




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                                              NOTE CAPITTALS LTD.
                       The Rub 9th Floo Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumba – 400 028
                             by,      or,                                   ai        8
                                    Tel. : +9
                                            9122-30266
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                                                                       w.keynotec
                                                                                capitals.com
                                                                                           m

Disclaiimer: This re
                   eport is purely for informa ation purpose and is bassed on public information News cont
                                                                                    c             n.          tent is attribu
                                                                                                                            utable to
various media, unle specified otherwise. A market related statistic data perta
                    ess                       All                      cal          ains to the im
                                                                                                 mmediately preceding trad  ding day,
unless stated other
      s             rwise. Neithe the informa
                                 er           ation nor any opinion expressed in this report constitutes an off
                                                          y                         s                         fer, or an invitation to
make an offer, to bbuy or sell the securities m
                                              mentioned he erein. We or any of our directors, offic
                                                                                                  cers or emplo
                                                                                                              oyees shall not in any
way be responsible for any loss arising from the use of this report. Investors are advised to apply their own judgmen before
       e            e             s           m                                     e                         o             nt
acting on the conteents of this re
                                 eport. The rep
                                              port has not been edited due to time c
                                                                       d            constraints.

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Keynote capitals india morning note august 13-'12

  • 1.       India Morning Note a g Mond day, August 13, 2012 t Dom mestic Mark kets Snapsh hot Views on markets t today Nam of Index me Aug 9 Aug 10 Change (%) ) • India markets ended flat on Frid an s day as gains in Sensex 17,560.87 17,557.74 -0.02% softwware servic exporters such as Infosys on hopes ce s for a revival in demand were offse by declin n et nes in CNX Nifty X 5,322.95 5,320.40 -0.05% State Bank of India and Tata Mo e f d otors after both BSE Mid-cap 6,098.12 6,099.61 0.02% disappointed with their qu uarterly earnings. Sent timent BSE IT 5,469.36 5,542.33 1.33% also weakened as Asian shares snapped a fou ur-day BSE Banks 11,991.62 11,889.48 -0.85% rally on Friday after Chin y na's July tra ade data fe far ell FII A Activity (`Cr) shor of expect rt tations, casting doubts on whethe the s er sputttering globbal econom will rega my ain traction any n Date e Buy Sell Net time soon. Des e spite the immprovement in deman fornd 09-A Aug 2,231 1,914 317 risk assets eviddenced this week, deve elopments in the 08-A Aug 2,759 1,620 1139 euro zone as w o well as econ nomic indicaators from major Tota Aug al 14,591 10,725 3867 globbal economies will rem main near-term drivers for 2012 YTD 388,561 331,395 57167 India stocks. I an Investors al lso continue to wait fo the e or gove ernment to announce policy reforms after n newly- MF A Activity (`Cr) appo ointed Finan nce Minister on Monday promised fiscal r Date e Buy Sell Net conssolidation steps and a review of tax regula f ations 09-A Aug 551 801 -250 that have prove unpopula with foreign investors. ed ar 08-A Aug 485 814 -329 • SBI 4.1%, despite a second 4 d-straight surge in qua arterly Tota Aug al 3,177 3,691 -514 net profit, afte a bigger er r-than-expec cted rise in bad n 2012 YTD 75,146 83,474 -8328 loans raised fe ears about its non-pe erforming assets. Even before the results we out, UBS downgrade SBI n e ere S ed Volu ume & Adva ances / Dec clines to "sell" from "buy", saying a weak monsoon would NSE BSE add to its "alreeady high" non-perform ming loans, while Trad ding Volume (Cr) 53.08 16.71 expeecting marg gins to decline due to the rising cost of t Turn nover (`Cr) 10,499 2,192 fund and the potential cuts in th lending rate. ds e he Advances 580 1,182 King gfisher Airlin nes dropped for a sixth consecutiv day d ve to a new record low, ending down 10.9% on % Declines 898 1,577 expeectations th ailing carrier will re he eport a big April- Unchanged 88 129 June net loss lat in the da e ter ay. Tota al 1,566 2,888 • Mark breadth was lower at ~0.75x as investors sold ket Glob Markets bal large cap stoc e cks. On pro ovisional ba asis, FIIs b bought Inde ex Late Values est Change (%) ) equity of `0.83bn while domestic institutions sold s DJIA A 13,207.95 0.32% equity of `5.37b in cash segment. bn NAS SDAQ 3,020.86 0.07% • Asian stocks ar weak tod re day, after Japan's eco J onomy Nikk * kei 8,892.61 0.01% grew an annua w alized 1.4% in April-June, well below % Hang Seng * 20,113.44 -0.11% forec cast and co ooling sharply from the previous qu uarter as yen headwinds weigh. * as o 8.25AM IST of • We expect a w weak opening for the Indian ma e arkets Curr rency Snapshot todaay, following the early weaknes in the Asian ss Futu contract ure Latest Previous markets and w worries tha the econ at nomic grow wth is expire on 29/08/ /12 Quote Close fallin but inflat ng tion is still h high. Indian Rupee per $ 55.41 55.54 Indian Rupee per € 68.11 68.30 Econom and Cor mic rporate Dev velopments s Indian Rupee per P 86.75 86.71 • Fitch Ratings, which rece h ently lowere India's credit ed outlo ook to ne egative, has said tha possibili at ity of Indian Rupee per Y 70.70 70.59 downgrading th country's sovereign rating is more he n * NSE Exchange E than 50% in the next 12-24 months. n e 4 Keyn note Capitals Research h (reseaarch@keyno otecapitals.net) (+91222-3026600 00) Keyynote Capita Research is also available on als h Bloo omberg KNTE <GO>, Tho E omson One A Analytics, Re euters Knowwledge, Capit IQ, TheMa tal arkets.com and securitie a es.com Keynote Capitals Institu utional Resea arch - winner of “India’s Best IPO Analyst Award 2009” by MCX-Zee Business To unsubsc cribe from th mailing lis please reply to unsub his st, bscribe@keyynotecapitals s.net
  • 2.       TOP GAINERS Buzzin Stocks ng (BSE A-Group) E • GMR Infra bo R oard appro oves raising `2500Cr byr Previous Currennt Change conssidering selling parts in road asset. The comp n pany Com mpany Name e Close(` `) Price(` `) (%) is al set for C lso Canada coal mining ven nture exit. Jain Irrigation 79.65 5 83.65 5.02 • Coal India (CIL) board m may appro ove model FSA Tech Mahindra h 761.70 0 799.50 4.96 toda ay. Indr raprastha Gas s 240.20 0 251.85 4.85 • DLF sells 17.5 a acre NTC land to Lodha developer for a rs Shre Cement ee 3087.00 0 3199.00 3.63 `275 50Cr. WEL LCORP 99.55 5 103.00 3.47 • L&T plans to g T get investor for infra projects as an rs (BSE Mid-Cap) E alternate to a p partner. Previous Currennt Change • RIL Sells 25% stake in Yem men oil block for $90mn k n. Com mpany Name e Close(` `) Price(` `) (%) Amt tek Auto 86.05 95.95 11.50 • NMD to acqui 26% sta DC ire ake in Brazilian iron or co re Amt tek India 83.15 90.25 8.54 Amp plus for arou und $10-15m. Jain Irrigation 79.65 83.65 5.02 • JSPL plans to begin pro L oduction fro om two of its f Indr raprastha Gas s 240.20 251.85 4.85 overseas coal m mines in Ind donesia and Mozambiqu ue. Ecle Serv erx 748.05 784.00 4.81 • Sint tex get no od to raise upto $2 e 225mn thro ough FCCCB's/GDRs/A ADRs & `600 via NCD. 0Cr TOP LOSERS • IFC to pick up 5 in Jain Irrigation for `250Cr. 5% (BSE A-Group) E • Deccan Chronicle promote pledge 28.71 % s ers stake Previous Currennt Change to IC CICI Bank. Com mpany Name e Close(` `) Price(` `) (%) JPINFRATEC 53.90 0 50.00 0 -7.24 • Ashoka Buildco may sell 35 % sta on ake in its road projects subsidiary for `800Cr. SBI 1971.95 5 1887.95 5 -4.26 Pow Finance wer 191.00 0 182.90 0 -4.24 • RBI rejects to restructure textile co e ompanies b bank Ranbaxy Lab 501.80 0 483.30 0 -3.69 loan n. GMR Infra R 22.30 0 21.55 5 -3.36 • Goeenka Diamo ond board meets today to cons sider stoc split. ck (BSE Mid-Cap) E • Plethico Pharm board m ma meets toda for issue of ay e Previous Currennt Change Com mpany Name e convvertible war rrants on pr ref. basis. Close(` `) Price(` `) (%) Shre Global Trd ee d 61.35 56.15 -8.48 • Rain Commodit n ties board m meets to app prove buy b back. JPINFRATEC 53.90 50.00 -7.24 US markets INDI IAB POWER 12.70 11.98 -5.67 US stocks rallied t session h to highs by the close of a low- e Glod dyne Tech 138.15 131.25 -4.99 volume trading se e ession Friday after earl weakness but y, ly s BEM ML 301.00 287.55 -4.47 reboun nded on ex xpectations for more global cen ntral- bank stimulus. Keyn note Capitals Research h (resea arch@keyno otecapitals.net) (+912 22-3026600 00)
  • 3.       India and Globa Economic Calendar a al c Countries / Mon nday Tuesday Wed dnesday Friday Reg gions 13- -Aug 14 4-Aug 15-Aug 17-Aug 1 Ind dia WPI Inflat tion for July Forex Reserves Data R 2012 Bank Lo oan Growth US Producer Price Index x Consumer Price Leading Indicator g (MoM) an (YoY) nd Index (MoM) Retail Sales (MoM) Industria Production al Reuters Michigan s/ and (YoY) (MOM) Consummer Sentime Index ent Business Inventories s Glo obal UK's RICS Housing UK's Conssumer Price e UK bank minutes k Price Balance Index (MooM) and and ume employment (YoY) rate Germany's Eurozone Gross e's Wholesale Price e Domestic Product c Index (MoM) and s.a. (QoQ and (YoY) Q) (YoY) Germany ZEW y's Survey - Economic Sentimennt KEYN NOTE CAPITTALS LTD. The Rub 9th Floo Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumba – 400 028 by, or, ai 8 Tel. : +9 9122-30266 6000 • www w.keynotec capitals.com m Disclaiimer: This re eport is purely for informa ation purpose and is bassed on public information News cont c n. tent is attribu utable to various media, unle specified otherwise. A market related statistic data perta ess All cal ains to the im mmediately preceding trad ding day, unless stated other s rwise. Neithe the informa er ation nor any opinion expressed in this report constitutes an off y s fer, or an invitation to make an offer, to bbuy or sell the securities m mentioned he erein. We or any of our directors, offic cers or emplo oyees shall not in any way be responsible for any loss arising from the use of this report. Investors are advised to apply their own judgmen before e e s m e o nt acting on the conteents of this re eport. The rep port has not been edited due to time c d constraints.