The Science of Growth

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The Science of Growth
Growth Hacking World Forum // SF
Ken Rudin
11.07.2018

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80% of new
products fail
-- Clayton Christensen,
Harvard Business School

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Growth is the Scientific Method
applied to moving a metric

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The Scientific Method
Observe Hypothesize Experiment

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The Growth Process
Understand Identify Experiment
Iterate

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Understand
// Goal:
Understand Key Growth Levers
// Growth Levers:
Things you can do/optimize that move
growth metrics

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1. North Star metric
// One metric ← creates focus
// Defines growth ← reflects user value

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2. User Flows

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3. Growth Model
North
Star
metric
Inputs
Example:Example: DAU = (new users) + (returning users)

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3. Growth Model
Example:
new users = ( (app store visitors from viral invites)
+ (app store visitors from mobile ads)
+ (app store visitors from marketing/PR) )
* (app store download conversion rate)
* (onboarding/activation completion rate)
Example: DAU = (new users) + (returning users)
returning users = (return users from notifications)
+ (organic returns)

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3. Growth Model
Example:
new users = ( (app store visitors from viral invites)
+ (app store visitors from mobile ads)
+ (app store visitors from marketing/PR) )
* (app store download conversion rate)
* (onboarding/activation completion rate)
Example: DAU = (new users) + (returning users)
returning users = (return users from notifications)
+ (organic returns)
app store visitors from viral invites =
(returning users)
* (invites sent per returning user)
* (invite CTR)

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Identify
// Goal:
Identify ideas for moving growth levers

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Growth levers are easier to move
North Star
metricGrowth lever

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Identify Ideas to Move the Growth Levers
// Every “What” needs a “Why”
// Why = Emotion (not logic)

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Understanding Psychology Leads to a Better “Why”
Original

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Understanding Psychology Leads to a Better “Why”
Redesigned

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Experiment and Iterate
// Goal:
Test ideas and learn

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Iteration multiplies impact and learning

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Result: Higher Impact Growth Initiatives
Identify
// North Star metric
// User Flows
// Growth Model
// Ideas to move levers
// “What” & “Why”
// Run experiments
// Analyze
// Iterate
ExperimentUnderstand

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Result: Higher Impact Growth Initiatives
Identify
// North Star metric
// User Flows
// Growth Model
// Ideas to move levers
// Use Behavioral Science
// Run experiments
// Analyze
// Iterate
ExperimentUnderstand

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Successful Products Require Art + Science
Art / Creativity
Create Value
Science / Process
Deliver Value

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3. Growth Model