The document summarizes recent economic data and indicators from Thailand in November and December. Key points include:
- Economic indicators in November showed signs of continued growth compared to October, with increases in private consumption and investment. Exports and tourism also grew despite a stronger baht.
- Manufacturing production growth slowed slightly but business confidence rose.
- Inflation rates picked up in line with economic growth, with headline inflation rising to 3.0% and core inflation higher than expected at 1.4%.
- Private investment remained strong while the business sector was slightly more optimistic about the economic outlook.
The Indian stock market indices extended gains for the second straight week, rising over 2% as domestic economic indicators improved and concerns over the Eurozone debt crisis eased. The Sensex closed at 16,155 and the Nifty at 4,866. Monthly industrial growth was higher than expected at 5.9% in November. Weekly food inflation declined for the tenth straight week. In the coming week, markets will watch results announcements and global economic data for cues.
The document provides an economic and market update and outlook for November 2012. It discusses recent performance and trends in global equity markets, the Indian economy and key sectors. The overall outlook is cautiously positive. The Indian economy is seen to have bottomed out, and further monetary easing and fiscal policy actions are expected to revive growth going forward. Private sector banks are favored over public sector banks based on better Q2 results.
The document provides an economic and market update for August 2012, analyzing factors such as global economic conditions, domestic economic growth and inflation trends, performance of key equity and debt markets, and providing an outlook on various sectors and the overall market. It notes recent monetary policy actions by central banks and analyzes their likely impact, while also offering recommendations to investors on portfolio rebalancing and positioning across different asset classes.
The document provides an economic update for key global markets as of February 28, 2013. It notes that equity markets in India, the US, and Japan saw gains over the last year, while commodities declined. Indian debt markets saw yields stabilize while the rupee depreciated against the dollar. Overall, the global economic environment remains cautiously optimistic but risks like the Italian election warrant monitoring.
- Thai economic indicators showed broad-based improvement in January from the impacts of flooding in 2011, but growth remains below pre-flood levels. Private consumption and investments increased.
- Manufacturing production continued rising as supply chain issues ease, though export-dependent sectors saw slower growth. Inflation declined further.
- The document discusses risks from higher oil prices and the ongoing European debt crisis, as well as positive factors like the risky asset rally and additional European funding measures.
The Indian equity markets had a strong week, with the key indices gaining around 2-3%. The markets recovered losses from the previous week and broke past psychological resistance levels. Sector performance was mixed, with banking, capital goods and metals performing well while FMCG declined slightly. Looking ahead, the market is awaiting major corporate earnings results and economic data. The trading range for the coming week is expected to be between 4500-4860 points.
The document summarizes the ongoing global economic turbulence and its potential impacts on India. It notes that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe has spread uncertainty worldwide and could lead to a double-dip global recession. This crisis has already slowed global trade and growth. India may see reduced foreign investment, exports, and economic growth due to weaker global demand and financial instability abroad. However, India can minimize damage by boosting domestic demand and pursuing economic reforms to maintain confidence and competitiveness. While the crisis brings challenges, it also provides opportunities for India to develop new export markets and push reforms to support continued growth.
The Indian stock market indices extended gains for the second straight week, rising over 2% as domestic economic indicators improved and concerns over the Eurozone debt crisis eased. The Sensex closed at 16,155 and the Nifty at 4,866. Monthly industrial growth was higher than expected at 5.9% in November. Weekly food inflation declined for the tenth straight week. In the coming week, markets will watch results announcements and global economic data for cues.
The document provides an economic and market update and outlook for November 2012. It discusses recent performance and trends in global equity markets, the Indian economy and key sectors. The overall outlook is cautiously positive. The Indian economy is seen to have bottomed out, and further monetary easing and fiscal policy actions are expected to revive growth going forward. Private sector banks are favored over public sector banks based on better Q2 results.
The document provides an economic and market update for August 2012, analyzing factors such as global economic conditions, domestic economic growth and inflation trends, performance of key equity and debt markets, and providing an outlook on various sectors and the overall market. It notes recent monetary policy actions by central banks and analyzes their likely impact, while also offering recommendations to investors on portfolio rebalancing and positioning across different asset classes.
The document provides an economic update for key global markets as of February 28, 2013. It notes that equity markets in India, the US, and Japan saw gains over the last year, while commodities declined. Indian debt markets saw yields stabilize while the rupee depreciated against the dollar. Overall, the global economic environment remains cautiously optimistic but risks like the Italian election warrant monitoring.
- Thai economic indicators showed broad-based improvement in January from the impacts of flooding in 2011, but growth remains below pre-flood levels. Private consumption and investments increased.
- Manufacturing production continued rising as supply chain issues ease, though export-dependent sectors saw slower growth. Inflation declined further.
- The document discusses risks from higher oil prices and the ongoing European debt crisis, as well as positive factors like the risky asset rally and additional European funding measures.
The Indian equity markets had a strong week, with the key indices gaining around 2-3%. The markets recovered losses from the previous week and broke past psychological resistance levels. Sector performance was mixed, with banking, capital goods and metals performing well while FMCG declined slightly. Looking ahead, the market is awaiting major corporate earnings results and economic data. The trading range for the coming week is expected to be between 4500-4860 points.
The document summarizes the ongoing global economic turbulence and its potential impacts on India. It notes that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe has spread uncertainty worldwide and could lead to a double-dip global recession. This crisis has already slowed global trade and growth. India may see reduced foreign investment, exports, and economic growth due to weaker global demand and financial instability abroad. However, India can minimize damage by boosting domestic demand and pursuing economic reforms to maintain confidence and competitiveness. While the crisis brings challenges, it also provides opportunities for India to develop new export markets and push reforms to support continued growth.
The document summarizes recent economic data and trends in Thailand that suggest modest but continued economic growth. It notes private consumption and investment remained robust in February, while exports also grew strongly. The large current account surplus means the Thai baht is likely to appreciate further against the US dollar. Given the healthy economic outlook, the Bank of Thailand is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting on April 20th to gradually normalize monetary policy.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The document forecasts mortgage rates for 2011-2012. It predicts that while an improved economic outlook is putting upward pressure on rates, geopolitical risks threaten recent optimism. Assuming no major disruption from rising oil prices, mortgage rates are expected to gradually increase over the year, with 1-year fixed rates reaching 4.35% and 5-year fixed rates reaching 5.90% by the end of 2011. The forecast also notes that mortgage spreads have returned to normal levels, so future rates will largely depend on changes to government bond yields.
Aventus Partners Business and Human Capital Outlook 2011- 12MP Sriram
This document provides an economic outlook and analysis for India in 2011-2012. It discusses that while the economy has grown robustly in the past year, inflation remains high and growth may slow. The budget is expected to roll out tax reforms, increase infrastructure and social spending, and potentially reduce subsidies. Certain sectors like automobiles, capital goods exports, and infrastructure financing may benefit, while others like real estate and banks face challenges. Overall, the human capital outlook remains positive for sectors tied to growth areas.
Global equity markets rose slightly on hopes of further policy action by central banks. Asian markets underperformed due to slowing growth in China and India. Central banks in Asia cut rates to boost growth. Commodity prices increased. In Europe, markets gained on plans to support Spain's banks and Italy's debt sale. US markets finished marginally higher despite a drop in consumer confidence. Indian markets fell due to weak earnings and industrial production. Bond yields in India eased and the rupee strengthened against the dollar.
1) While Panama has experienced strong economic growth in recent years, the document expresses concerns about medium-term fiscal trends and political stability.
2) It notes frequent changes have been made to Panama's fiscal responsibility law to accommodate higher spending, and questions the transparency of "turnkey projects" totaling over $5 billion.
3) The large public investment program and some "white elephant" projects raise doubts about fiscal efficiency, as the country's metro system will likely require large operating subsidies despite serving a small population.
Indian stock markets gained for the seventh consecutive week, with the Sensex rising 3.04% and Nifty up 3.75%. Foreign institutional investors contributed to the rise by investing over Rs. 10,000 crore in Indian equities during the week. Several sectors such as auto, banks, capital goods and real estate saw gains over 6%. However, inflation declined to a 2-year low of 6.55% in January, giving the RBI scope to cut interest rates. Volatility is expected in the upcoming week due to F&O contract expiry and various economic data releases.
The weekly market outlook document provides a snapshot of market performance for the week ending April 20th, 2012 and an outlook for the following week:
- Indian stock markets gained over 1.5% for the week, recovering slightly from losses the prior week, aided by the RBI's 50 basis point interest rate cut.
- The auto sector rallied the most, up nearly 6%, while oil & gas declined the most.
- In the coming week, markets will watch the April F&O contracts expiration on the 26th as well as Reliance Industries' earnings. Global economic data from the US will also be monitored.
- Technical indicators show some sectors like auto, metal and healthcare have positive
China has experienced strong economic growth over the past 30 years but growth is expected to slow going forward. Two factors that help shelter China from external economic weakness are its ability to direct lending by banks and manipulate social policy to support growth, as well as the potential for domestic consumption to increase. Key areas for future Chinese growth include social housing, infrastructure spending, consumer spending, and consolidation in the retail sector. While China's stock market indices performed poorly in 2011, differences between Chinese and Western markets include Chinese companies focusing more on state policy goals rather than profits and more limited foreign ownership of Chinese shares.
Annual Fixed Income Outlook 2022 | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
Shifting Sands, a year of active management - In the Fixed Income space, currently there are lot of dynamic elements at play. With limited scope for rate cuts, we recommend investing in Floating Rate Bonds which may benefit from rising interest rates. We recommend investing in spread assets with an aim to benefit from higher carry.
Global Financial Crisis - Impact on Singapore and Policy Measures Taken to co...Vikas Sharma
The document summarizes the global financial crisis and its impact on Singapore. It discusses how Singapore was impacted through declines in its banking sector, trade, foreign direct investment, and real economy. It also describes Singapore's policy responses which included guaranteeing bank deposits, monetary policy shifts, and a large fiscal stimulus package to preserve jobs, stimulate lending, and support businesses and households. The assessment is that unlike other countries, Singapore maintained monetary stability while implementing swift, customized policy measures to mitigate short-term impacts without damaging long-term prospects.
FY18 started on a very optimistic note for Indian financial markets. BJP had just scored a massive electoral victory in UP. This was widely assumed to mean that people and economy have moved on leaving the scar of Demonetization behind. The market participants were full of hope anticipating GST to be panacea for many economic ailments. The proposed New bankruptcy law, that was about to be passed by Lok Sabha, promised speedy resolution of NPAs. Analysts were very optimistic about earnings finally growing, after staying mostly flat for two preceding years.
The financial year has however ended on a rather cautious note with below par returns and considerably moderated expectations forFY19.
The popular commentary suggests that the participants are worried about a variety of factor. Some prominent of these factors could be listed as follows:
This document discusses monetary and fiscal policies used to manage inflation. It defines inflation and outlines its stages and types. The causes of demand-pull and cost-push inflation are explained. The effects of inflation on various groups are described. The objectives and instruments of monetary policy like bank rate, cash reserve ratio, and open market operations are covered. Fiscal policy and its tools to counter recession are also summarized.
The document provides a market review for the week ended February 15, 2013. It summarizes performance of global equity markets, bond yields, commodity prices, and currency exchange rates. It also reviews economic data and monetary policies in various regions including Asia, Europe, Americas, and India. Key highlights from the Indian market include a marginal decline in equity indices, mixed economic data, easing bond yields, and a weaker rupee.
The document provides an economic outlook for Brazil in 2012. Under a basic scenario where the Eurozone crisis does not worsen, Brazil is expected to see moderate GDP growth of 3.0-3.5% driven by monetary easing, resuming public investments, and expanding credit. Inflation is projected to remain above 5% due to accelerating economic activity and rigid services inflation. Interest rates may stabilize at around 10.5% as inflation picks up in 2013. The current account balance will likely be lower while the Real maintains support around 1.80 to the dollar. Faster public spending could lower the primary budget result to around 2.8% of GDP.
This document provides an overview of trends in foreign capital inflows to Pakistan. It finds that foreign direct investment has declined since peaking in fiscal year 2017. Most foreign investment in recent years has come through China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects, though there are now concerns about rising debt levels. The document also surveys local businesses to understand perceptions of foreign investment. It aims to inform policy recommendations regarding how to improve the investment climate and ensure mutual benefits for both foreign investors and domestic firms.
Monthly market outlook (July 2021) | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
Valuations are not cheap but the business cycle remains in the nascent phase. Read our Monthly Market Outlook for July 2021 to understand more about Equity Markets and Fixed Income Markets.
- Global equity markets declined for the week as investors focused on the upcoming US fiscal cliff and weak Eurozone economic data. Safe haven assets like gold and US Treasuries rose.
- In Asia, regional markets fared better than global peers helped by gains in Taiwan and Australia. Chinese economic data showed signs of recovery. Japanese machinery orders declined again.
- In Europe, equity markets fell on weak economic reports from Germany. The ECB and BoE kept rates unchanged. The Greek parliament approved austerity measures. The EC cut its growth forecast for Germany.
The document provides an overview and analysis of India's political and economic outlook. It can be summarized as follows:
1) The recent election resulted in a stable Congress-led coalition and political stability, which is good for continued reforms and affordable residential development.
2) Macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong with GDP growth estimates of 6.2% in FY2009-2010 and inflation expected to remain benign.
3) Demand for affordable housing is strong and growing, underpinned by a large housing shortage, with many large developers focusing on affordable projects.
- Indian markets ended lower by 0.94% on August 3 amid concerns about the weakening global economic outlook and fears of eurozone debt contagion after the US debt deal.
- All major Asian indices declined for the second consecutive day following a sharp drop on Wall Street due to weak economic reports and earnings.
- Key events for the day include the release of India's WPI-based food and fuel inflation data.
- Germany and France are likely to keep Greece inside the eurozone to reduce financial volatility for their own economies, as they have significant exposure to Greek debt through their banks and private sectors.
- While an exit from the eurozone could allow Greece to devalue its currency and boost exports, it would also be extremely costly and risky due to technical difficulties in converting debts to a new currency and risk of capital flight and banking collapse.
- In the short term, bailouts may continue to be necessary, but Greece will struggle to generate enough revenue to pay back debts due to economic troubles. Long term solutions may require increased fiscal integration across eurozone countries or managed exit strategies.
The document summarizes recent economic data and trends in Thailand that suggest modest but continued economic growth. It notes private consumption and investment remained robust in February, while exports also grew strongly. The large current account surplus means the Thai baht is likely to appreciate further against the US dollar. Given the healthy economic outlook, the Bank of Thailand is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting on April 20th to gradually normalize monetary policy.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The document forecasts mortgage rates for 2011-2012. It predicts that while an improved economic outlook is putting upward pressure on rates, geopolitical risks threaten recent optimism. Assuming no major disruption from rising oil prices, mortgage rates are expected to gradually increase over the year, with 1-year fixed rates reaching 4.35% and 5-year fixed rates reaching 5.90% by the end of 2011. The forecast also notes that mortgage spreads have returned to normal levels, so future rates will largely depend on changes to government bond yields.
Aventus Partners Business and Human Capital Outlook 2011- 12MP Sriram
This document provides an economic outlook and analysis for India in 2011-2012. It discusses that while the economy has grown robustly in the past year, inflation remains high and growth may slow. The budget is expected to roll out tax reforms, increase infrastructure and social spending, and potentially reduce subsidies. Certain sectors like automobiles, capital goods exports, and infrastructure financing may benefit, while others like real estate and banks face challenges. Overall, the human capital outlook remains positive for sectors tied to growth areas.
Global equity markets rose slightly on hopes of further policy action by central banks. Asian markets underperformed due to slowing growth in China and India. Central banks in Asia cut rates to boost growth. Commodity prices increased. In Europe, markets gained on plans to support Spain's banks and Italy's debt sale. US markets finished marginally higher despite a drop in consumer confidence. Indian markets fell due to weak earnings and industrial production. Bond yields in India eased and the rupee strengthened against the dollar.
1) While Panama has experienced strong economic growth in recent years, the document expresses concerns about medium-term fiscal trends and political stability.
2) It notes frequent changes have been made to Panama's fiscal responsibility law to accommodate higher spending, and questions the transparency of "turnkey projects" totaling over $5 billion.
3) The large public investment program and some "white elephant" projects raise doubts about fiscal efficiency, as the country's metro system will likely require large operating subsidies despite serving a small population.
Indian stock markets gained for the seventh consecutive week, with the Sensex rising 3.04% and Nifty up 3.75%. Foreign institutional investors contributed to the rise by investing over Rs. 10,000 crore in Indian equities during the week. Several sectors such as auto, banks, capital goods and real estate saw gains over 6%. However, inflation declined to a 2-year low of 6.55% in January, giving the RBI scope to cut interest rates. Volatility is expected in the upcoming week due to F&O contract expiry and various economic data releases.
The weekly market outlook document provides a snapshot of market performance for the week ending April 20th, 2012 and an outlook for the following week:
- Indian stock markets gained over 1.5% for the week, recovering slightly from losses the prior week, aided by the RBI's 50 basis point interest rate cut.
- The auto sector rallied the most, up nearly 6%, while oil & gas declined the most.
- In the coming week, markets will watch the April F&O contracts expiration on the 26th as well as Reliance Industries' earnings. Global economic data from the US will also be monitored.
- Technical indicators show some sectors like auto, metal and healthcare have positive
China has experienced strong economic growth over the past 30 years but growth is expected to slow going forward. Two factors that help shelter China from external economic weakness are its ability to direct lending by banks and manipulate social policy to support growth, as well as the potential for domestic consumption to increase. Key areas for future Chinese growth include social housing, infrastructure spending, consumer spending, and consolidation in the retail sector. While China's stock market indices performed poorly in 2011, differences between Chinese and Western markets include Chinese companies focusing more on state policy goals rather than profits and more limited foreign ownership of Chinese shares.
Annual Fixed Income Outlook 2022 | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
Shifting Sands, a year of active management - In the Fixed Income space, currently there are lot of dynamic elements at play. With limited scope for rate cuts, we recommend investing in Floating Rate Bonds which may benefit from rising interest rates. We recommend investing in spread assets with an aim to benefit from higher carry.
Global Financial Crisis - Impact on Singapore and Policy Measures Taken to co...Vikas Sharma
The document summarizes the global financial crisis and its impact on Singapore. It discusses how Singapore was impacted through declines in its banking sector, trade, foreign direct investment, and real economy. It also describes Singapore's policy responses which included guaranteeing bank deposits, monetary policy shifts, and a large fiscal stimulus package to preserve jobs, stimulate lending, and support businesses and households. The assessment is that unlike other countries, Singapore maintained monetary stability while implementing swift, customized policy measures to mitigate short-term impacts without damaging long-term prospects.
FY18 started on a very optimistic note for Indian financial markets. BJP had just scored a massive electoral victory in UP. This was widely assumed to mean that people and economy have moved on leaving the scar of Demonetization behind. The market participants were full of hope anticipating GST to be panacea for many economic ailments. The proposed New bankruptcy law, that was about to be passed by Lok Sabha, promised speedy resolution of NPAs. Analysts were very optimistic about earnings finally growing, after staying mostly flat for two preceding years.
The financial year has however ended on a rather cautious note with below par returns and considerably moderated expectations forFY19.
The popular commentary suggests that the participants are worried about a variety of factor. Some prominent of these factors could be listed as follows:
This document discusses monetary and fiscal policies used to manage inflation. It defines inflation and outlines its stages and types. The causes of demand-pull and cost-push inflation are explained. The effects of inflation on various groups are described. The objectives and instruments of monetary policy like bank rate, cash reserve ratio, and open market operations are covered. Fiscal policy and its tools to counter recession are also summarized.
The document provides a market review for the week ended February 15, 2013. It summarizes performance of global equity markets, bond yields, commodity prices, and currency exchange rates. It also reviews economic data and monetary policies in various regions including Asia, Europe, Americas, and India. Key highlights from the Indian market include a marginal decline in equity indices, mixed economic data, easing bond yields, and a weaker rupee.
The document provides an economic outlook for Brazil in 2012. Under a basic scenario where the Eurozone crisis does not worsen, Brazil is expected to see moderate GDP growth of 3.0-3.5% driven by monetary easing, resuming public investments, and expanding credit. Inflation is projected to remain above 5% due to accelerating economic activity and rigid services inflation. Interest rates may stabilize at around 10.5% as inflation picks up in 2013. The current account balance will likely be lower while the Real maintains support around 1.80 to the dollar. Faster public spending could lower the primary budget result to around 2.8% of GDP.
This document provides an overview of trends in foreign capital inflows to Pakistan. It finds that foreign direct investment has declined since peaking in fiscal year 2017. Most foreign investment in recent years has come through China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects, though there are now concerns about rising debt levels. The document also surveys local businesses to understand perceptions of foreign investment. It aims to inform policy recommendations regarding how to improve the investment climate and ensure mutual benefits for both foreign investors and domestic firms.
Monthly market outlook (July 2021) | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
Valuations are not cheap but the business cycle remains in the nascent phase. Read our Monthly Market Outlook for July 2021 to understand more about Equity Markets and Fixed Income Markets.
- Global equity markets declined for the week as investors focused on the upcoming US fiscal cliff and weak Eurozone economic data. Safe haven assets like gold and US Treasuries rose.
- In Asia, regional markets fared better than global peers helped by gains in Taiwan and Australia. Chinese economic data showed signs of recovery. Japanese machinery orders declined again.
- In Europe, equity markets fell on weak economic reports from Germany. The ECB and BoE kept rates unchanged. The Greek parliament approved austerity measures. The EC cut its growth forecast for Germany.
The document provides an overview and analysis of India's political and economic outlook. It can be summarized as follows:
1) The recent election resulted in a stable Congress-led coalition and political stability, which is good for continued reforms and affordable residential development.
2) Macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong with GDP growth estimates of 6.2% in FY2009-2010 and inflation expected to remain benign.
3) Demand for affordable housing is strong and growing, underpinned by a large housing shortage, with many large developers focusing on affordable projects.
- Indian markets ended lower by 0.94% on August 3 amid concerns about the weakening global economic outlook and fears of eurozone debt contagion after the US debt deal.
- All major Asian indices declined for the second consecutive day following a sharp drop on Wall Street due to weak economic reports and earnings.
- Key events for the day include the release of India's WPI-based food and fuel inflation data.
- Germany and France are likely to keep Greece inside the eurozone to reduce financial volatility for their own economies, as they have significant exposure to Greek debt through their banks and private sectors.
- While an exit from the eurozone could allow Greece to devalue its currency and boost exports, it would also be extremely costly and risky due to technical difficulties in converting debts to a new currency and risk of capital flight and banking collapse.
- In the short term, bailouts may continue to be necessary, but Greece will struggle to generate enough revenue to pay back debts due to economic troubles. Long term solutions may require increased fiscal integration across eurozone countries or managed exit strategies.
O documento discute os tipos de discriminação, incluindo discriminação racial, social e religiosa. A discriminação ocorre quando há um tratamento adverso baseado em características como raça, gênero, orientação sexual ou religião. Isso viola os direitos humanos e prejudica as pessoas social, cultural ou economicamente. A discriminação é proibida na maioria dos países e pode levar a problemas legais.
This document discusses the importance of storytelling for marketing and connecting with customers. It argues that people do not always listen or behave as expected because marketers do not understand their customers' perspectives. It then provides examples of using small, simple stories as well as metaphors, archetypes, and story arcs to help make brands more meaningful and relevant to customers. The document advocates employing both left and right brain tactics to tap into well-known story structures that audiences can relate to as part of an effective brand storytelling strategy.
The Thai economy grew more slowly than expected in the third quarter of 2011, expanding just 0.5% quarter-over-quarter and 3.5% year-over-year. Private investment and exports continued to drive growth, but agricultural output declined due to floods. Household consumption growth also slowed as consumers became more cautious due to flooding. The economy is expected to grow only 1.5% for the full year due to flooding impacts. The Bank of Thailand is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to boost the economy and restore confidence.
The document provides a summary and analysis of economic conditions in Thailand and other regions. It discusses:
1) Continued concerns about the eurozone debt crisis fueling demand for safe-haven currencies like the US dollar and depressing risk assets.
2) While US money supply growth looks better than the EU or Japan, high unemployment will likely lead the Fed to resume quantitative easing in mid-2012.
3) Local authorities in Thailand face challenges from losses at the Fiscal Debt Fund and risks of bond yield curve steepening given planned large bond issuances.
4) The analysis predicts the Bank of Thailand will cut its policy rate again in January and forecasts Thailand's economy could experience a V-shaped
This document discusses how storytelling can be used for marketing and connecting with customers. It recommends using small, simple stories that customers can relate to. It also suggests employing techniques like metaphors, archetypes, and story arcs that tap into common narratives. The goal is to create meaningful and relevant stories that spread through word-of-mouth and engage customers at a deep level.
This document provides an economic update on Thailand for December 2010 and January 2011. Some key points:
1) In December, several Thai economic indicators showed signs of moderation from November, though farm income continued expanding, which will support future consumption.
2) Manufacturing growth decelerated in December, while private investment and consumption were flat for the month. Business sentiment remained concerned about rising costs.
3) In January, headline inflation stayed at 3.0% but core inflation edged down, while food and energy were the main drivers of higher prices. Producer price inflation was unchanged at 6.0%.
The Swedish Economy No.8 - November 30, 2011 Swedbank
The Swedish economy experienced strong GDP growth in the third quarter but indicators show weakening underlying growth dynamics. Exports continue to grow but are reliant on slowing global demand while domestic demand is cautious. The labor market is cooling with rising unemployment and layoffs as collective bargaining negotiations face challenges of weak wage growth and a slowing economy. Overall the Swedish economy remains stable for now but faces risks from a weakening global economy and declining confidence.
The four engines of Thailand's economy - private consumption, private investment, manufacturing, and exports - continued to drive growth in January. However, risks increased from higher inflation and interest rates, as well as global economic volatility. Private consumption and investment increased strongly in January, while manufacturing production and exports also expanded. The balance of payments registered a surplus, though smaller than the previous month. The Bank of Thailand is expected to raise interest rates gradually to balance growth and inflation risks.
Syz & co syz asset management - market outlook 27 february 2013SYZBank
After a start to the year buoyed by optimism, the last few weeks have been characterized by a kind of “reality check” which does not necessarily call into question the macro-economic outlook, but which reminds us that not everything can be wiped clean by floods of liquidity.
The document summarizes recent economic data and sentiment regarding China. It notes that while exports are slowing due to global economic weakness, domestic consumption continues to grow and infrastructure investment may help offset declines in other areas. Recent data shows Chinese GDP growth slowing but not yet at dangerous levels. The outlook expects further slowing but growth still around 8% for 2012, which would not be disastrous. Risks remain from further weakness in Europe or the US hurting Chinese exports.
The Global Economy No. 6 - September 11, 2012Swedbank
The document discusses developments in global monetary policy and the economic outlook. It notes that central banks, particularly the ECB and Federal Reserve, are expected to pursue more accommodative monetary policies to support growth. However, the effects on unemployment and real economic growth are expected to be small. More should be done through fiscal reforms and "unconventional fiscal policy" to boost growth. The ECB has launched a new bond-buying program called OMT, but its impact depends on reforms in crisis-hit countries and there are risks to the ECB's independence.
The economic data this week showed signs that the U.S. and global economies have stabilized and possibly bottomed out. Retail sales are expected to rise significantly due to the "Cash for Clunkers" program. Upcoming reports on retail sales, consumer prices, and other economic indicators next week could generate market reactions. Financial markets continued higher despite thin economic data, perhaps waiting for stronger confirmation of recovery.
The document discusses the state of the US economy and debt financing markets for middle market companies. It notes that while the economic recovery remains fragile, modest growth in areas like manufacturing, personal income and expenditures, coupled with continued federal stimulus, should allow the economy to continue growing without a second recession. However, unemployment will remain high as productivity gains allow more output with fewer workers. Debt markets have also seen renewed activity, with increased volumes in both the leveraged loan and high yield bond markets.
The Houston economy continues to outperform the national economy with strong job and economic growth. Several key industries such as energy, construction, and manufacturing are leading the recovery and have added thousands of jobs in the past year. While the outlook remains positive, factors such as regulatory uncertainty in oil could temper growth. The private sector has already regained over 80% of jobs lost during the recession.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The document provides an analysis of the Consumer Discretionary sector by the Dragon Fund for the third quarter of 2015. It identifies the Household Durables subsector as one to watch due to increasing housing starts, innovative home furnishings, and positive economic growth supporting home buying. However, risks include tight lending slowing housing demand. Overall, the sector declined in Q3 but outperforms based on fundamentals. Household Durables has above-average growth and trades at a below-sector multiple, making it an attractive investment opportunity.
Shock waves, natural and man-made, rocked global economies in the first six months of 2011. Economic growth faced headwinds from severe storms, floods, earthquakes, higher oil prices and a manufacturing disruption of the global component supply chain from Japan. Most of those issues have now passed, however the European sovereign and banking sector debt crisis remains unresolved. Learn more at http://www.nafcu.org/nifucs
Apertor chinese lodging-industry_growthGregg Carlson
This document provides an overview and analysis of the growth of the Chinese lodging industry. Some of the key points made in the document include:
- RevPAR growth in Asia Pacific and China significantly outpaced growth in Europe and the US in 2010, with China seeing 37% year-over-year RevPAR growth.
- Major hotel companies like IHG, Marriott, and Starwood remain positive about growth prospects in Asia and China in the coming years.
- The Chinese lodging market is dominated by independent hotels and guesthouses but is seeing rapid growth of branded economy and upper-scale hotels.
- The economy hotel segment in particular has grown dramatically, led by several Chinese operators, and
GT Industry Intelligence Unit - Retail 2012 AustraliaGrant Thornton
The retail industry in Australia saw increases in sales in May and June 2012, with sales rising 0.8% in May and 1.0% in June, the highest increase in over two years. However, analysts are only forecasting flat growth over the next 12 months given ongoing economic uncertainties from issues like the carbon tax and European debt crisis. Several large retail chains also announced store closure programs. The results show the retail market remains cautious but any acquisitions could provide opportunities for growth. Customer service and experience will be key for retailers to succeed in this environment.
1) Healthy domestic economic conditions in Australia are likely to moderate the effects of volatility in the global environment and underpin stable bank performance in 2011.
2) Conservative loan growth and less potential for further reductions in impairment charges, given already good asset quality, are likely to limit significant upside in profitability.
3) Steps have been taken to strengthen liquidity, though wholesale funding remains prominent, making Australian banks vulnerable to global funding market disruptions.
1) Healthy domestic economic conditions in Australia are likely to moderate the effects of volatility in the global environment and underpin stable bank performance in 2011.
2) Conservative loan growth and less potential for further reductions in impairment charges, given already good asset quality, are likely to limit significant upside in profitability.
3) Steps have been taken to strengthen liquidity, though wholesale funding remains prominent, making Australian banks vulnerable to global funding market disruptions.
The document summarizes recent U.S. economic indicators and projections. Key findings include:
- Several indicators suggest the economic recovery is slowing, though a double-dip recession is not expected. Inventories have stabilized, cooling the recovery.
- Unemployment claims have plateaued around 450,000, similar to 1983 after the previous recession. If that pattern repeats, claims should resume declining soon.
- Manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys show continued growth, but signs of slower expansion and reluctance among firms to significantly increase hiring.
KBank Capital Market perspectives May 18 markets wrap up - positioning for ...KBank Fx Dealing Room
Global markets are experiencing renewed volatility due to concerns about the future of the eurozone and slowing economic growth. Investors have sold risky assets like stocks and bought safe-haven assets such as the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, U.S. treasuries and German bunds. The U.S. dollar has strengthened about 8% against other major currencies over the past year. Asian currencies have also weakened against the dollar, with the Thai baht declining about 2%.
1) A parliamentary election in Greece failed to form a new government, increasing the risk of Greece defaulting on its debt obligations or leaving the eurozone.
2) If Greece stops implementing austerity measures required for its bailouts, it will have no choice but to default, as it will have no incoming or outgoing funds. This will be a showdown between Greece's new leader and European creditors.
3) During the period of uncertainty until the next election, volatility in currency markets like the USD/THB will likely rise. However, the eurozone will ultimately take steps to keep Greece in the eurozone and inject more liquidity, reducing volatility once a solution is reached.
The document provides a summary of movements in various financial markets and commodities over the past quarter. It notes that the USD/THB remained in a sideways channel tracking EUR and gold. The EUR/USD was rangebound between 1.3000-1.3400 with focus on Spain. The USDJPY strengthened from 84 to 81 after the BoJ signaled no further easing but the market expects more bond purchases. The THB interest rate swap rose in Q1 on improved sentiment in Europe. NYMEX crude oil remained in an uptrend channel between $100-110. Coal prices continued to drop due to oversupply of the cheaper substitute, natural gas. Rubber rebounded in Q1 but
The document provides a summary of movements in various financial markets and commodities over the past quarter. It notes that the USD/THB remained in a sideways trend influenced by EUR and gold movements. The EUR/USD traded in a narrow range of 1.3000-1.3400 with focus on Spain. The USDJPY strengthened from 84 to 81 after the BoJ signaled no further easing but the market expects more bond purchases. THB interest rate swaps rose in Q1 on improved sentiment in Europe and comments from Thailand's central bank. NYMEX crude oil remained in an uptrend channel between $100-110. Coal prices continued to drop due to oversupply of the cheaper substitute,
1) Portugal's debt problems stem from rigid product and labor market regulations that have led to declining productivity and competitiveness.
2) While political risks are lower than other troubled European countries, more time is needed to restore Portugal's economy as significant reforms have been implemented.
3) The IMF assesses that existing financial assistance for Portugal is adequate, but risks remain and additional funds from Europe may be needed, though funds are available.
- The Federal Reserve decided to keep the target range for the Federal Funds rate at 0-0.25%, as it has since December 2008, and expects to maintain this accommodative stance through late 2014.
- While the economy has been expanding moderately and unemployment has declined, the Fed judges that conditions still warrant exceptionally low interest rates.
- Inflation has picked up due to higher oil and gas prices but core inflation remains stable, and the Fed expects inflation to remain at or below its target in the medium term.
- The Fed will continue its program to extend the average maturity of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust the size and composition of holdings as needed.
Thailand has been placed on FATF's watch list due to a lack of progress in fighting money laundering and terrorism financing. FATF noted that Thailand has not fully implemented its action plan to address deficiencies, including adequately criminalizing terrorist financing and strengthening anti-money laundering supervision. Being placed on the watch list means fund transfers involving Thailand will face higher scrutiny and could lead to economic sanctions if issues are not addressed. As FATF members account for 83% of the global economy, sanctions would significantly impact Thailand. Thai authorities must now comply with FATF's recommendations to avoid further consequences.
§ Thai GDP dropped 9.0% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2011 due to declines in domestic and external demand from severe flooding, much less than forecasts.
§ The floods resulted in decreases in private consumption, government spending, investment and exports while imports also dropped.
§ For 2011, Thai GDP growth was only 0.1%, far below previous forecasts, due to the flooding impact.
§ NESDB expects Thai GDP growth to recover to 5.5-6.5% in 2012 as investment increases, though exports growth was forecast lower, and inflation is projected at 3.5-4.0%.
The document provides a market movement update for February 2012, summarizing trends in currency exchange rates and commodity prices over various time periods. It notes that the USD/THB spot rate has fallen over 22% since 2007 but only 7% since 2011. Other currency pairs and commodity prices such as oil, gold, and copper are also discussed. The document concludes by highlighting opportunities for cheap baht funding through currency swaps and recommending options hedging strategies.
The document provides a summary and analysis of economic conditions in Thailand and other regions. It discusses:
1) Continued concerns about the eurozone debt crisis fueling demand for safe-haven currencies like the US dollar and depressing risk assets.
2) While US money supply growth looks better than the EU or Japan, high unemployment will likely lead the Fed to resume quantitative easing in mid-2012.
3) Local authorities in Thailand face challenges from losses at the Fiscal Debt Fund and risks of bond yield curve steepening given planned large bond issuances.
4) The analysis predicts the Bank of Thailand will cut its policy rate again in January and forecasts Thailand's economy could experience a V-shaped
This document provides an economic update on Thailand with data from November and December 2011. It discusses declines in the SET index, farm income, manufacturing production, private consumption, investment, exports and imports due to the European debt crisis and flooding in Thailand. Headline inflation declined to 3.53% in December as food and transportation prices fell with improved flooding conditions. Government bond yields rebounded at the end of December on news of large planned bond issuances in the coming quarters.
KBank Capital Market perspectives Dec 30 flooding and economic slowdown in n...KBank Fx Dealing Room
The Thai economy contracted sharply in November 2011 due to the severe flooding which impacted all economic sectors. Key economic indicators such as manufacturing production, exports, private consumption, and investment all declined significantly from the prior month and year. The Thai baht also weakened substantially against the US dollar in November amid the slowing global economy and flooding impacts on Thailand.
- Exports and imports in Thailand fell in November, with exports down 12.4% year-over-year and imports down 2.4%, leading to a larger trade deficit of $1.373 billion.
- The declines were due to ongoing effects of severe flooding during the quarter, which disrupted manufacturing production and supply chains. Exports of industrial goods and vehicles fell sharply.
- Weak exports will likely warrant a more dismal economic outlook, leading the Bank of Thailand to consider further interest rate cuts to support recovery. The document forecasts USD/THB volatility in the first half of 2012, with a target rate of 29.50 by year-end.
The document provides a monthly economic and foreign exchange outlook report. It discusses several topics:
1) Concerns over the Mayan calendar prophecy and global economic outlook in 2012.
2) Expectations that the US dollar will weaken and Thai baht will strengthen against the dollar in 2012.
3) Analysis showing high global debt levels could continue weighing on economic growth.
4) Charts tracking economic indicators and currency movements.
The report concludes by examining relationships between the euro/US dollar exchange rate and the US dollar/Thai baht rate. It finds the baht tends to strengthen as the euro strengthens against the dollar.
The document provides market updates on currency movements and interest rates from December 2011. It summarizes data on the EURUSD, USDTHB, crude oil, gold prices, and Thai and US interest rates. The USDTHB movement shows a narrow trading range in 2011. The document suggests the THB may weaken against the USD initially in 2012 before strengthening. It also notes the USDTHB is correlated with the SET index and EURUSD. Crude oil is forecast to trade between $75-110 per barrel in 2012. Gold support is seen at $1,500 per ounce. Soft interest rate environments are expected in Thailand and the US in the first half of 2012.
1. ECONOMIC
UPDATE Capital Markets Research
4 January 2011
Thai Economic Update
November Economic Data Nalin Chutchotitham
nalin.c@kasikornbank.com
• Economic indicators in November are
somewhat stronger than October, suggesting
continued growth
• Manufacturing production growth still on a
down trend after early 2010’s highs
• Private investment still looking bright while
business sector is slightly more optimistic
• Private consumption index increased after 4
months of decline
• Private deposit and credit continued to see
double-digit expansion, in line with the growth
of domestic demand.
• Exports growth still strong but imports also
accelerated, narrowing the trade surplus
• Unemployment rate in October stayed at 0.9%
for the fourth month
December Inflation Data
• Inflation rates picked up in line with economic
growth: BoT may preempt rising prices with
more rate hikes
• Headline consumer price inflation climbed to
3.0% from 2.8% during the previous two
months
• Core inflation rose more than expected to 1.4%
• Producer price inflation edged up slightly to
6.7%
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained
from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
Page 1 of 5
2. Economic Update
Monthly Economic Data
Economic indicators in November are compared with a 6.0% gain in October and a 9.8% gain
somewhat stronger than October, suggesting in the third quarter. Production changes were mixed for
the month. Textiles and apparels saw a decline, probably
continued growth due to effects of global slowdown. However, a few
industries continued to grow by double-digit growth rates,
Thailand’s economic indicators in November showed namely integrated circuit, vehicles, chemicals, and
significant pick-up from the previous month with the electrical appliances. Meanwhile, capacity utilization
private consumption and investment indicators showing rate was little changed at 63.6%, compared to the
month-on-month increases. Meanwhile, exports and the previous month’s 63.9%.
tourism sector continued to show gains despite the
stronger baht. At the same time, manufacturing % yoy %
production saw slight slowdown but business confidence 40 75
index rose. In any case, there remained several 30
70
uncertainties to global economic recovery and foreign 20
exchange rate movements are likely to remain volatile for 10 65
some time.
0 60
-10
For the year 2010, foreigners had been net-buyers of 55
-20
Thai stocks on the back of strong economic recovery and
positive growth prospects. Their net-purchase was at -30 50
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
$1.14bn in 2009 while it was at $1.92bn in 2010,
indicating an increase of 68.8% over the year. Manufacturing production index ISIC % yoy Capacity Utilization % (right axis)
$ mn
4000 Private investment still looking bright while
3000
2000 business sector is slightly more optimistic
1000
0
Private Investment Index % YoY
-1000
-2000 200 25
-3000 20
190
-4000
15
-5000 180
-6000 10
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 170 5
160 0
Foreign net buy of Thai equities ($ mn)
-5
150
-10
140 -15
Going forward, Thailand as a small and open economy
130 -20
would have to watch out for the bigger pictures such as
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
U.S. economic recovery and European debt problems.
Yet, positive trends elsewhere, such as expansion in PII % YoY (RHS) PII level
China, may help to offset the unwanted impacts. In anty
case, higher costs and volatility of exchange rates would Private investment index (PII) saw a slight gain of 0.3%
remain important risks for the business sector in 2011. mom vs the previous month’s fall of 1.1%. Compared to
On the other hand, cross-border tension with Cambodia the same period last year, the PII decelerated to 15.5%
and other domestic political issues may add to from 17.3% in October but it is still a double–digit growth,
consumers’ and businesses’ concerns as well. indicating a continuation of a relatively strong
momentum. The November reading showed construction
area permitted continued to grow favorably while real
imports of capital goods and commercial car sales were
% YoY Thailand's leading and coincidental economic indices
8 also affirmative of positive momentum going forward.
6
50 = neutral Thai Business Sentiment Indices
4
60
2
0 55
-2 50
-4
45
-6
-8 40
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
35
LEI CEI
30
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
Manufacturing production growth still on a BSI BSI 3m forward expectations
down trend after early 2010’s highs
Business sentiment index rose in line with the PII and the
PCI, both for the November period and for 3-month
Manufacturing production index (ISIC basis) continued
ahead outlook. The confidence index picked up to 52.5
to decelerate in November. The MPI grew by 5.6% yoy
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained
from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
Page 2 of 5
3. Economic Update
from 50.0 in October while its 3-month forward outlook Exports growth still strong but imports also
index rose from 55.2 to 54.6. accelerated, narrowing the trade surplus
Private consumption made a U-turn upwards Exports growth accelerated to 28.7% yoy from 16.6% in
October, led by better exports performance in all of the
% YoY
12 115
sectors, namely agriculture, fishery and manufacturing.
10 110 Although we suspect that exporters’ income in baht terms
8 105 are likely to have been hit by the stronger baht, the
6 100 exports figures continued to show that global recovery
4 95
2 90
and expertise of local businesses have helped to propel
0 85 exports orders during the past few months.
-2 80
-4 75
-6 70
-8 65 % yoy $ mn
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 100 5,000
Private consumption index (sa, left axis) Consumer confidence index (right axis) 80 4,000
60 3,000
Private consumption index (PCI) picked up in 40 2,000
November by 3.5% mom after four months of decline. 20 1,000
0 0
This reversion had been led by gains from fuel
-20 -1,000
consumption, imports of consumer goods and VAT.
-40 -2,000
Meanwhile, sales of all types of vehicles remained
-60 -3,000
strong. This eases our concern with regards to the
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
sustainability of domestic demand going forward.
Trade balance ( $ mn, right axis) Imports (left axis) Exports (left axis)
Compared to the same period last year, the PCI rose by
4.1%, stronger than October’s 2.3% gain and slightly
lower than the third quarter’s 4.9% increase. This reflects Imports also accelerated in November, in line with the
a positive sign in the aftermath of serious flooding growing trend of domestic demand. Imports value rose by
situation during most of the Q4. 35.0% yoy in November after having slowed down to
14.4% yoy in the previous month.
40 120
Trade balance narrowed from $2.3bn in October to
30 110
$0.49bn in November, mainly on the faster pace of
20 100 imports growth. Meanwhile, the services, income and
10 90 transfers account recorded a surplus for the second
0 80
month in November as tourism sector continued to
perform well. The surplus was at $539mn, slightly higher
-10 70
than October’s $5467.mn.
-20 60
Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 1,800 80
75
Retail sales % yoy (LHS) Consumer confidence index (RHS) 1,600 70
65
1,400 60
Meanwhile, the consumer confidence index (CCI) 55
continued to hover near 79-80 level for the fifth month. In 1,200 50
December, the CCI fell from 80.2 to 79.0, primarily on the 45
back of higher retail oil prices and flooding situation 1,000 40
35
during October and November. 800 30
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
Retail sales in October slowed down from 9.0% yoy in Tourist arrival ('000 left axis) Hotel occupany rate (right axis)
September to 4.5%. However, wholesale trade remained
rather strong at 6.9% yoy growth, despite a slowdown to
4.0% in September. Tourism sector’s performance remained positive. The
number of tourist arrivals in rose to 1.5 million from 1.36
At the same time, private deposit and credit continued to million in October, seeing a 10.2% yoy growth. Hotel
see double-digit expansion, in line with the growth of occupancy rate continued to rise to 55.1% from 48.9% in
domestic demand. October and 45.7% in September.
% yoy
14 The current account also declined to $1.0bn following the
12.2%
12 reduction in trade surplus. In October, it was recorded at
10 11.0% $2.2bn. Nevertheless, the baht remained supported at
8 such levels of surpluses. Overall balance of payments
8.1%
6
saw smaller surplus of $820mn.
4
2
0
-2
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
Private credit Private Deposits M2
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
Page 3 of 5
4. Economic Update
US$, mn Current account (Trade balance + Services and transfers)
of what the Ministry of Commerce had anticipated (3.0 –
6000
3.5%).
5000
4000
During December, headline consumer price index (CPI)
3000 rose by 0.16% from the previous month, mainly due to
2000 the rise in several food products and raw food items. Fuel
1000 prices rose by about 3.0% as well. In addition, core CPI
0 had risen by 0.35% from November’s level, more than
-1000 the average over the past 11 months of 0.1% mom climb.
-2000
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 %
Trade balance Services and transfers Balance of Payments 1.0
0.5
Unemployment rate in October was at 0.9%,
unchanged from the previous three months 0.0
% -0.5
3.0
-1.0
2.5 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
2.0 MoM Core CPI MoM CPI
1.5
1.0 The producer price index lowered slightly in December,
0.5 recording a decline of 1.1% mom. However, the change
0.0 in the supply-side price measure is still rather substantial
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 at 6.7% yoy. This is why we have to look at a combined
unemployed labor force Seasonally inactive labor force reading of both the index and its growth, similar to the
figure depicted below.
Unemployment rate remained at low levels while demand
for labor remained high. The BoT reported that average 180 25%
wage of employed labor increased by 9.1% yoy, in line 170 20%
with the increased employment and working hours in 160
15%
150
both the agriculture and non-agriculture sectors. 140 10%
130 5%
% yoy 120 0%
Employment growth
110
5.0 -5%
100
4.0 90 -10%
80 -15%
3.0
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
2.0
PPI: CPA (Thailand) PPI yoy
1.0
0.0
In recent news, we have observed Bank of Thailand’s
-1.0
(BoT) repeated warnings of excessive government’s
-2.0 subsidies. Although such subsidies (electricity, cooking
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
gas, bus and train fares etc.) helped to reduce the
impacts of global economic recession during the past two
years, the central bank is concerned if the continuation of
such measures would distort real price pressure to the
Inflation rates picked up in line with economic
public as the global economy continues to recover and
growth – BoT may preempt rising prices with global commodity prices are trending upwards. This had
more rate hikes been on the key reasons why the BoT had been
gradually shifting its monetary policy stance away from
10% the ultra-eased end but still maintaining an
8% accommodative level of policy rate for sustainable
6% growth.
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CPI Core CPI
Headline inflation rate accelerated from 2.8% to 3.0% in
December, similar to the core inflation rate which climbed
to 1.4% from 1.1% in November. For the whole year,
consumer price inflation averaged at 3.3%, the mid-range
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
Page 4 of 5
5. Economic Update
Bank of Thailand Economic Data
2010
May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10
The Real Sector (%yoy , unless specified otherwise)
Manufacturing Production Index, seasonally adjusted (level) 187.5 191.9 188.8 182.5 189.3 187.9 189.2
Manufacturing Production Index, without seasonal adjustment (level) 185.0 194.2 190.1 183.7 201.5 191.2 190.4
Manufacturing Production Index, without seasonal adjustment 15.9 14.2 13.1 8.4 8.1 6.0 5.6
Industrial Capacity Utilization (%) 64.3 65.4 64.8 63.6 64.4 63.9 63.6
Private Consumption Indicators
Retail Sales (at 2002 prices) 8.1 11.9 12.3 8.5 8.9 4.7 n.a.
Passenger Car Sales (units) 68.1 86.2 74.3 59.4 45.8 43.2 40.9
Motorcycle Sales (units) 26.5 43.2 34.2 20.0 9.3 2.0 9.3
Imports of Consumer Goods (at 2000 prices) 45.2 37.4 13.5 27.4 9.2 11.3 16.9
Private Investment Indicators
Commercial Car Sales (units) 42.5 44.6 37.0 46.4 35.6 28.9 36.3
Imports of Capital Goods (at 2000 prices) 37.0 42.9 27.9 32.0 21.7 11.6 20.5
Cement Sales (tons) 19.4 6.4 3.5 -4.5 3.7 -7.4 -1.8
Government Cash Balance (billions of baht) -15.4 122.6 -56.3 -0.1 67.4 -76.0 -104.0
Consumer Price Index 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.8
Food 4.6 6.1 6.9 7.5 6.6 5.5 5.8
Non-Food 2.8 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.9 3.7 1.1
Core Inflation (excluding raw food and energy) 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1
External Accounts (Millions of US$, unless specified otherwise)
Exports 16,435.0 17,877.0 15,475.0 16,292.0 17,955.0 17,046.0 17,584.0
( %) 42.5 47.1 21.2 23.6 21.8 16.6 28.7
Imports 14,144.0 15,334.0 16,266.0 15,440.0 14,712.0 14,773.0 17,094.0
( %) 53.6 38.3 36.5 41.8 15.7 14.4 35.0
Trade Balance 2,291.0 2,543.0 -791.0 852.0 3,243.0 2,273.0 490.0
Current Account Balance 1,172.0 821.0 -1,001.0 280.0 2,767.0 2,740.0 1,019.0
Net Capital Flow -2,410 741 2,980 3,206 1,126 2,405 443
Monetary authorities 62 173 261 149 409 200 -35
Government -170 96 423 901 584 443 -162
Bank -1,703 2,554 527 1,860 460 4,155 584
Others -599 -2,082 1,772 297 -654 -2,215 56
Balance of Payments -989 2,166 1,412 3,589 4,270 5,822 820
Official Reserves (billions of US$) 143.5 146.8 151.5 155.2 163.2 171.1 168.0
Monetary Statistics (End of period) (Billions of baht)
Monetary Base 1,088.8 1,072.0 1,066.9 1,045.6 1,118.1 1,072.2 1,109.9
( %) (14.3) (9.3) (11.3) (8.0) (13.7) (9.6) (9.3)
Narrow Money (M1) 1,261.9 1,180.2 1,173.0 1,181.4 1,175.5 1,202.3 1,235.4
( %) 14.4 15.1 15.8 11.4 11.7 11.4 10.8
Broad Money (M2) 11,001.5 10,846.4 10,887.1 10,968.1 11,116.1 11,322.4 11,497.3
( %) 6.7 6.9 8.7 8.4 9.8 11.1 11.0
Other Depository Corporations Deposits 10,229.1 9,983.3 9,974.5 10,015.9 10,091.6 10,204.1 10,389.3
( %) 7.0 6.2 7.6 6.6 7.8 8.5 8.1
Other Depository Corporations Private Credits 9,101.2 9,196.7 9,219.7 9,299.8 9,432.7 9,580.5 9,743.9
( %) 7.3 8.5 9.1 9.8 10.8 12.1 12.2
Interest Rates (% p.a.)
Repurchase Rate, 1 day (closing rate daily average) 1.25 1.25 1.40 1.56 1.75 1.75 1.75
Overnight Interbank Rate (mode daily average) 1.16 1.13 1.27 1.43 1.62 1.62 1.62
Fixed Deposit Rate (1 year) 0.65-0.75 0.65-0.75 1.00-1.25 1.00-1.25 1.10-1.43 1.10-1.50 1.10-1.50
Prime Rate (MLR) 5.85-6.25 5.85-6.25 6.00-6.38 6.00-6.38 6.00-6.38 6.00-6.38 6.00-6.38
Exchange Rate (Baht : US$) 32.39 32.47 32.33 31.74 30.83 29.97 29.89
Source: Bank of Thailand
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
Page 5 of 5