John Lazcano has over 15 years of experience in credit risk analysis and financial modeling. He currently works as a subject matter expert for Citibank, where he conducts in-depth analysis of risk profiles and stress testing for consumer and wholesale portfolios. Previously, he held risk analysis roles at GE Capital and J.P. Morgan Chase involving credit risk modeling, forecasting loan performance, and monitoring portfolio trends.
In this study we survey practices and supervisory expectations for stress testing (ST), in a credit risk framework for banking book exposures. We introduce and motivate ST; and discuss the function, supervisory requirements and expectations, credit risk parameters, interpretation results
with respect to ST. This includes a typology of ST (uniform testing, risk factor sensitivities, scenario analysis; and historical, statistical and hypothetical scenarios) and procedures for con-ducting ST. We conclude with two simple and practical stress testing examples, one a ratings migration based approach, and the other a top-down ARIMA modeling approach.
Native Learning Center webinar by Upspring 2016 Feasibility Studies June-2016UPSPRING, LLC
Instructor Drew Tulchin, Managing Partner at Upspring Associates (www.upspringassociates.com)
Planning and Housing: Feasibility Studies seeks to promote sustainable Tribal housing, Tribal government, community efforts, and small business growth within Indian Country. This webinar will share analytical and planning tools, as well as the theory behind them. The webinar series will explore strategic planning and feasibility studies to empower the success for non-profits, Tribal housing development entities (TDHEs), Tribes, and for profit Tribal entities.
Course Overview:
• This webinar training will introduce the concept of and importance of feasibility studies to business decision-making;
• Cover components of and different types of feasibility studies, and discuss examples of feasibility studies conducted in Indian Country;
• Share specific tools, such as the USDA format in addition to a case study from Scott Beckman, Northern Pueblos Housing Authority;
• Attendees are encouraged to bring questions about this very important topic.
In this study we survey practices and supervisory expectations for stress testing (ST), in a credit risk framework for banking book exposures. We introduce and motivate ST; and discuss the function, supervisory requirements and expectations, credit risk parameters, interpretation results
with respect to ST. This includes a typology of ST (uniform testing, risk factor sensitivities, scenario analysis; and historical, statistical and hypothetical scenarios) and procedures for con-ducting ST. We conclude with two simple and practical stress testing examples, one a ratings migration based approach, and the other a top-down ARIMA modeling approach.
Native Learning Center webinar by Upspring 2016 Feasibility Studies June-2016UPSPRING, LLC
Instructor Drew Tulchin, Managing Partner at Upspring Associates (www.upspringassociates.com)
Planning and Housing: Feasibility Studies seeks to promote sustainable Tribal housing, Tribal government, community efforts, and small business growth within Indian Country. This webinar will share analytical and planning tools, as well as the theory behind them. The webinar series will explore strategic planning and feasibility studies to empower the success for non-profits, Tribal housing development entities (TDHEs), Tribes, and for profit Tribal entities.
Course Overview:
• This webinar training will introduce the concept of and importance of feasibility studies to business decision-making;
• Cover components of and different types of feasibility studies, and discuss examples of feasibility studies conducted in Indian Country;
• Share specific tools, such as the USDA format in addition to a case study from Scott Beckman, Northern Pueblos Housing Authority;
• Attendees are encouraged to bring questions about this very important topic.
The feasibility analysis is an internationally accepted process used to evaluate various project dimensions important for achieving the desired project benefits.
An effective tool for appraising the project from standpoints of all project stakeholders
It is not a waste of time. It significantly reduces the risks in project implementation
The business plan provides a planning function and outlines the actions needed to take the proposal from “idea” to “reality”
The feasibility study outlines and analyzes several alternatives and identifies the best business scenario(s).
The business plan deals with only one alternative or scenario.
The feasibility analysis is an internationally accepted process used to evaluate various project dimensions important for achieving the desired project benefits.
An effective tool for appraising the project from standpoints of all project stakeholders
It is not a waste of time. It significantly reduces the risks in project implementation
The business plan provides a planning function and outlines the actions needed to take the proposal from “idea” to “reality”
The feasibility study outlines and analyzes several alternatives and identifies the best business scenario(s).
The business plan deals with only one alternative or scenario.
1. JOHN LAZCANO
57 FIRST AVENUE APT # 4N ● NEW YORK, NY 10003 ● TELEPHONE: 917-371-5830 ● EMAIL: JLAZCAN@GMAIL.COM
SUMMARY:
Credit risk analyst experienced in the assessment of an entity's relative vulnerability to default on financial obligations, comparable across industry groups and countries. This comparative analysis includes the consideration of the potential for change in the entity's operating environment or financial environment and the likely effect on future performance. By weighing the differences in financial management, country risk profile and risk characteristics of the industry I arrive at a balanced evaluation of credit quality.
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE:
CITIBANK – NEW YORK, NY OCTOBER 2014 - PRESENT
Subject Matter Expert – CCAR/DFAST – Audit/Risk Analyst – Consultant (PwC)
• Provide in depth analysis and estimation of risk profiles for US/Global Consumer and Wholesale portfolios including credit conversion factors (CCF), expected loss (EL), exposure at default (EAD), loss given default (LGD) and probability of default (PD)
• Coordinate and execute stress test requirements associated with supervisory, local and group scenarios including the preparation of qualitative/quantitative assessments and comprehensive documentation • Prepare written presentations that include in depth analysis, insightful reports, graphs and charts of key drivers and trends (Model Development, Conceptual Soundness, Technical Dataset, Outcomes Analysis, Controls Environment, Ongoing Monitoring) • Ensure management line of sight to key assumptions and articulate sensitivities and limitations of projections • Identify and implement process improvements and scalable solutions that will enable stress testing to be a sustainable BAU activity • Develop forecasts and analysis of business units and portfolio trends including the quantification of mitigating actions and other recommendations for management consideration • Directly contributes to full and comprehensive compliance with stress testing regulatory statutes (Dodd Frank Act) and related guidance from, FRB and OCC • Evaluate the possible impacts of new business products as well as risk profile changes in current portfolio assets on economic risk capital and on stressed losses
G.E. CAPITAL CORPORATION – STAMFORD, CT APRIL 2014 – OCT 2014
Lead Risk Analyst – Energy Financial Services - Consultant • Supports the Valuation Leader with delivery of accurate and timely risk portfolio reporting and analysis, valuation analytics for CCO's and business segments and/or HQ (Stress Testing to meet CCAR Regulations) • Support a Quantitative Methodology leader on formulating and evaluating alternative credit risk methodologies or econometric credit stress testing specifications for conceptual soundness and stakeholders' model requirements • Prepare performance reports on roll-forward valuation analysis, variance analysis, valuation, outcome analysis, back- testing analysis and benchmarking analysis • Ensures data completeness, accuracy and timeliness working cross functionally on data reconciliation routines and data integrity initiatives • Works proactively and closely with risk analytics managers to improve business risk analytic and data gathering processes • Assist in new modeling sensitivity development and impact timing analysis as required by HQ Enterprise Stress Testing's procedure; and update the analysis, reporting, research and methodology • Conduct analytics to validate the performance of existing quantitative risk models, recommend changes, and support gap closing projects • Drive standardization of processes that ensure timely generation and retrieval of reporting and risk analytics data, including support of model management framework • Manage model supporting data warehouses in terms of accuracy and completeness; understand data and process structures from System of Record to ensure accuracy and precision of data used for modeling, reporting and analysis • Assist in statistical analysis to help research and gather underlying credit modeling dataset • Works closely with Risk and Finance Portfolio teams peers to consolidate and validate reporting • Strong communication skills with the ability to prepare clear communication and confidently present meaningful analysis to senior and executive management level • Lead modeling data capture, gathering, mastering and maintenance in support of modeling databases
J.P. MORGAN CHASE - NEW YORK, NY OCTOBER 2011 – JUNE 2013
Analyst
• Conducted risk analysis on residential mortgage loans through a proprietary loan-by-loan default model
• Forecasted expected losses for a portfolio of residential mortgage loans using predictive drivers that include loan type, collateral type, interest rate, loan terms, credit scores, loan-to-value (LTV) ratios and debt to income (DTI) ratios
2. • Assigned a default probability and loss severity to each individual loan based on loan-level characteristics using the output of analytical models developed by J.P. Morgan Chase
• Analyzed the characteristics of each loan and compared them with currently managed and historical loan characteristics of both J.P. Morgan Chase heritage loans and industry peers
• Analyzed collateral characteristics, recent loan performance and anticipated cash-flow from underlying loans
• Identified trends, forecast future projections and determine both current and past performance
• Analyzed distressed loan performance using parameters such as frequency of foreclosure rates and recovery rates
• Monitored loan, lender, borrower, and property characteristics as well as price movements in housing, liquidity of the property market, prepayment rates, delinquency rates, default rates, loss severities and foreclosure costs
• Generated and update business requirements documents and turned those requirements into key functional requirements
• Identified, analyzed and communicated conflicting requirements as well as the potential for technical problems with the project implementation
• Articulated requirements that were agreed upon by stakeholders and confirmed that requirements were well within the capabilities of the IT department, their development staff and available software
• Supported IT staff with the assessment of products in the marketplace and identified innovative solutions needed to satisfy system requirements, development and improvements
COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY BUSINESS SCHOOL - NEW YORK, NY DECEMBER 2008 – OCTOBER 2011
Columbia Institute for Tele-Information –Senior Research Analyst
• Supervised and managed over twenty Research Assistants who analyzed data, created summary reports and presented findings, ideas, and recommendations to management
• Conducted independent financial/business analysis (due diligence) and research on corporations (domestic/international) in the mass media, technology and telecommunications industries in both the US and abroad
• Analyzed the public financial statements of companies (GAAP/STAT/IFRS) to assess their current financial health, calculate their long term prospects and identify financial strengths and weaknesses
• Strong use of financial tools NPV, DCF, WACC, IRR, VaR, CAPM, statistical analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, portfolio theory, correlation, variance, co-variance and Black-Scholes options pricing
• Co-authored an independent CITI report for the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) on the state of broadband in the United States with the purpose of supporting legislation based on the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009’s (ARRA)
PRIVATE EQUITIES TRADING OPERATOR - New York, NY JANUARY 2003 – DECEMBER 2008
Proprietary Equities Trader
• Researched, designed and implemented proprietary trading strategies
FITCH RATINGS - New York, NY JUNE 1998 - JANUARY 2003
Analyst –Structured Finance
• Produced written analysis based on structured debt transactions originating out of the U.S. & Latin America
• Performed due diligence, assigned ratings and maintained surveillance on future flow, residential mortgage, commercial mortgage, auto loan, equipment lease, SBA loan, student loan, credit card receivables, project finance and synthetic transactions
• Determined obligor default and recovery rates using base case expectations based primarily on collateral analysis and originator-specific loss data, taking into account the economic outlook, market, and industry benchmark data
• Analyzed the timing of cash flows, gain on sale of assets, asset yield, note interest costs, and other expenses to determine the positive or negative effects on a securitization’s structure
• Conducted a review of counterparties to determine any credit exposures beyond the securitized asset pool and ensure the effective operation of an SPV in collecting receivables and distributing funds
• Evaluated the legal structure, asset quality, credit enhancement, financial structure, and originator and servicer quality to determine the credit profile of the transaction
• Analyzed the ongoing performance (surveillance) of rated transactions using financial statements, trustee reports, stress tests, ratio analysis and continuously assessed ongoing structural components (subordination, excess spread, overcollateralization, interest coverage (IC) tests, LOCs, third-party protection, swaps, reserve accounts, purchasing contracts)
• Ensured adherence to covenants and reviewed closing docs for the proper course of action if violations occurred
• Produced Excel models to determine risk, identify trends, forecast future projections and record/measure past performance
EDUCATION:
NEW YORK UNIVERSITY STERN SCHOOL OF BUSINESS - New York, NY PRESENT
The Langone Part-Time MBA Program – Finance Major
ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY, BACHELOR OF SCIENCE /MARKETING - Tempe, AZ 1997
SKILLS:
• Excel (pivot tables, vlookup, macros), Word, PowerPoint, SharePoint, Access, SAP, SAS
• Bloomberg Terminal, Thomson, FactSet, Dow Jones Factiva, LexisNexis, CoreLogic, EDGAR
• Bilingual Spanish (Dual Citizenship: European Union - Spain)