Overview of the 2022 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR)

1. Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI
Overview of the 2022 Annual Trends and
Outlook Report (ATOR)
John M. Ulimwengu

2. #2022ReSAKSS #2022ATOR
Outline
• Motivation
• Objective
• Drivers of food systems transformation
• Patterns, Structure and Performance of Africa Agrifood
• Policies and Investments for Successful Agrifood
• Role of spatial development strategies
• Trends and outlook
• Concluding remarks

3. #2022ReSAKSS #2022ATOR
Motivation
• The CAADP/Malabo declaration main
goal is to trigger accelerated growth
and transformation for shared
prosperity and improved livelihoods.
• Achieving such ambitious goal requires
that each component of the system
performs efficiently.
• A high-performing, resilient, and
competitive processing sector is critical
to the overall performance of the food
system.

4. #2022ReSAKSS #2022ATOR
Objective
• The 2022 ATOR examines the status of Africa’s
food processing sector, its performance or lack
thereof, and its challenges.
• The Report also lays out areas of improvement
including policies, investments and capacity
building.

5. #2022ReSAKSS #2022ATOR
Drivers of food systems transformation
• Demographic dividend and increase in middle-
class income are shaping both the quantity and
quality of the demand for food.
• Diets are shifting away from unprocessed staples
to higher-value foods (animal products, fruits, and
vegetables) as well as processed foods.
• These changes are most pronounced among
higher-income and urban consumers.

6. #2022ReSAKSS #2022ATOR
Patterns, Structure and Performance of
Africa Agrifood: Various case studies
• Tomato products in Ghana and Nigeria.
• Pineapple products in West Africa.
• Traditional African vegetables in Kenya and
Tanzania.
• Beef exports from Botswana and Namibia-
• Beef trade in West Africa.
• Meat production in East Africa.
• Poultry industry in Mozambique and Ghana.

7. #2022ReSAKSS #2022ATOR
Patterns, Structure and Performance of
Africa Agrifood: General findings
• Agrifood processing sector represents a
substantial share of total manufacturing
employment and value added.
• Agrifood processing employment, output, and
labor productivity are growing.
• Small and medium enterprises and informal firms
constitute a large share of agrifood processing
firms.
• Processed agricultural products account for a
large and increasing share of intra-African
agricultural trade.

8. #2022ReSAKSS #2022ATOR
Patterns, Structure and Performance of Africa
Agrifood: Value chains specific findings
Challenge Effects Actions
Fruits and vegetables: i) low and
unpredictable productivity; ii)
seasonal and highly perishable; iii)
poor transport infrastructure and
insufficient cold chain facilities
• High post-harvest losses
• High risk of foodborne diseases
• Increase cost and reduce
processors’ competitiveness
• Increase productivity
• Aggregate smallholders output
• Improve national food safety
certification systems
Meat, beef and poultry: i) lack of
quality control; ii) no reliable local
animal feed subsector; iii) poor
veterinary services
• Limit access to high-value
markets
• Raise costs and undermine
competitiveness
• Invest in animal health and
traceability systems
• Improve veterinary services
• Develop local animal feed
subsector
A common theme: lack of well-
functioning linkages between
producers and processors.
Unreliable supply chains • Improve linkages between
producers and processors.
• Strengthen productivity and
stability of farm production in
quantity and quality

9. #2022ReSAKSS #2022ATOR
Policies and Investments: Skills and
Knowledge
• Limited opportunities to acquire skills and
knowledge.
• Public education and training systems face
funding and human resource limitations.
• Public education often does not cover areas of
new and emerging technical skill.
• Limited interactions between training institutions
and industry result in mismatches between the
training offered and the skills required by firms.

10. #2022ReSAKSS #2022ATOR
Policies and Investments: Access to
finance
• A large percentage of agrifood processing firms in
Africa identify access to finance as a major
constraint to their operations.
• Formal financial institutions tend to serve only
large and formal firms;
• Small and informal enterprises, which constitute
the largest share of agrifood processing firms, rely
mainly on their own funds or on informal
financing.

11. #2022ReSAKSS #2022ATOR
Policies and Investments: Access to
innovation and technologies
• Innovation in African agrifood processing firms is
generally low due to several constraints:
• low investments in research and development
• limited access to technology.
• Lack of clustering.
• No technology transfer agreements between African
and foreign food processing firms.
• No interaction between food processing firms and
research institutions

12. #2022ReSAKSS #2022ATOR
Role of spatial development strategies
• Building high-performing, resilient and
competitive food processing sector will require
convergence of key assets in due time and at the
right place
• A spatial model of agro-industrial processing is the
best fit to serve as a strategic solution for
transforming Africa’s agriculture into a high-value-
added industry (AfDB, 2021).
• Case studies of Uganda’s fish and South Africa’s
wine illustrate the benefits of clustering to
promote growth and competitiveness.

13. #2022ReSAKSS #2022ATOR
Trends and outlook
• The report tracks progress on CAADP implementation and
CAADP Results Framework indicators.
• Resource constraints limit capacities for NAIP implementation.
• Data collection and reporting capacities have improved over
time.
• Most countries are not on-track to achieving the Malabo
Declaration commitments by 2025.

14. Challenges in sustaining progress in
incomes and food security
• The prevalence of undernourishment and the
absolute numbers of poor were increasing even
before COVID-19
• GDP per capita growth was slowing prior to the
pandemic—but has partially recovered in 2021
from declines in 2020.
• The employment rate declined in 2020 and
continued to fall in 2021
• Additional lockdowns; growth in population seeking
employment
• Especially steep in Southern Africa, upper middle-
income countries, and countries with no NAIP

15. #2022ReSAKSS #2022ATOR
Concluding remarks
• The agrifood processing sector is a key factor in
the continent’s ability to build food systems that
provide sustainable healthy diets for all.
• Many challenges constrain the development of
food processing sector in Africa: financing, skills
and knowledge, infrastructure, innovations and
technologies.
• Areas for quick actions include:
 Foster productivity growth in small, medium and
informal agrifood processing firms.
 Boost competitiveness of formal processing firms.
 Increase linkages between firms and other food system
actors to facilitate access to skilled labor, finance,
infrastructure, and technology.

16. THANK YOU