This document discusses the inability to accurately forecast future energy technology costs and performance over long time horizons. It provides several examples where past energy forecasts made by models and experts were wildly inaccurate when compared to actual outcomes. This is because economic, social and technological systems lack the structural stability and predictability of physical systems. Forecasts are strongly influenced by unexpected events and changes in market structure, technology innovation, policies and other hard-to-predict factors. Therefore, no amount of additional resources or effort can overcome the fundamental limitations of long-term energy forecasting. Experimental approaches and focusing on physical constraints provide better guidance than precise cost predictions decades into the future.
Koomey's talk at the Clean Tech Open SF event, April 2, 2014Jonathan Koomey
This is the talk I gave at the Clean Tech Open SF event on April 2, 2014, which was held at Impact Hub San Francisco. It summarizes findings from my latest book, Cold Cash, Cool Climate: http://amzn.to/Av0O9O
Climate Change as an Entrepreneurial Challenge: A virtual talk for the St. L...Jonathan Koomey
In this talk I explain why climate change is the biggest challenge humanity has ever faced, and describe the lessons for entrepreneurs that follow from our scientific knowledge about climate change. It focuses on "working forward toward a goal", a business oriented framing of the problem that will be familiar to any executive whose organization has had to understand and tackle a big problem. I gave this talk via Skype on July 27, 2014. It's similar to this one: http://www.slideshare.net/jgkoomey/koomeys-talk-at-clean-tech-open-sf-event-m
Koomey on Climate Change as an Entrepreneurial ChallengeJonathan Koomey
This is an updated version of my talk on climate change as an entrepreneurial challenge. I gave this version, which has updated graphs on temperatures, among other things, at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory on October 21, 2014. The bulk of the talk is making the case for urgent action and summarizing the findings of climate science for an entrepreneurial audience.
Facing the climate challenge: Implications of the 2 degree limitJonathan Koomey
This is a lecture I gave for Leslie Field's class on Engineering and Climate Change at Stanford on September 24, 2013. It describes an alternative to the traditional benefit-cost framing of the climate problem, called "working forward toward a goal". It's one that relies on our best understanding of the climate system as well as the lessons from business planners about facing big strategic challenges. See the discussion in my book Cold Cash, Cool Climate: Science-based Advice for Ecological Entrepreneurs http://amzn.to/Av0O9O for details.
Bringing Enterprise IT into the 21st Century: A Management and Sustainabilit...Jonathan Koomey
I gave this talk as a webinar on March 19th, 2014 for the Corporate Eco Forum. It discusses ways to improve the efficiency of enterprise IT, mainly focusing on institutional changes that are necessary to make modern IT organizations perform effectively. It draws upon our case study of eBay as well as my other work on data centers over the years.
Koomey's talk at the Clean Tech Open SF event, April 2, 2014Jonathan Koomey
This is the talk I gave at the Clean Tech Open SF event on April 2, 2014, which was held at Impact Hub San Francisco. It summarizes findings from my latest book, Cold Cash, Cool Climate: http://amzn.to/Av0O9O
Climate Change as an Entrepreneurial Challenge: A virtual talk for the St. L...Jonathan Koomey
In this talk I explain why climate change is the biggest challenge humanity has ever faced, and describe the lessons for entrepreneurs that follow from our scientific knowledge about climate change. It focuses on "working forward toward a goal", a business oriented framing of the problem that will be familiar to any executive whose organization has had to understand and tackle a big problem. I gave this talk via Skype on July 27, 2014. It's similar to this one: http://www.slideshare.net/jgkoomey/koomeys-talk-at-clean-tech-open-sf-event-m
Koomey on Climate Change as an Entrepreneurial ChallengeJonathan Koomey
This is an updated version of my talk on climate change as an entrepreneurial challenge. I gave this version, which has updated graphs on temperatures, among other things, at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory on October 21, 2014. The bulk of the talk is making the case for urgent action and summarizing the findings of climate science for an entrepreneurial audience.
Facing the climate challenge: Implications of the 2 degree limitJonathan Koomey
This is a lecture I gave for Leslie Field's class on Engineering and Climate Change at Stanford on September 24, 2013. It describes an alternative to the traditional benefit-cost framing of the climate problem, called "working forward toward a goal". It's one that relies on our best understanding of the climate system as well as the lessons from business planners about facing big strategic challenges. See the discussion in my book Cold Cash, Cool Climate: Science-based Advice for Ecological Entrepreneurs http://amzn.to/Av0O9O for details.
Bringing Enterprise IT into the 21st Century: A Management and Sustainabilit...Jonathan Koomey
I gave this talk as a webinar on March 19th, 2014 for the Corporate Eco Forum. It discusses ways to improve the efficiency of enterprise IT, mainly focusing on institutional changes that are necessary to make modern IT organizations perform effectively. It draws upon our case study of eBay as well as my other work on data centers over the years.
This is a practical plan to fix Australia’s buildings
in a decade. We can act now to halve the energy use
of our buildings, deliver energy freedom to people
and transform our homes and workplaces to provide
greater comfort with lower energy bills.
The vision. The Zero Carbon Australia Buildings Plan is the
first comprehensive, nationwide plan to retrofit Australia’s
buildings. This plan demonstrates how all existing buildings
can reach zero emissions from their operation within ten
years. It sets out how Australia can transform its building
stock to reduce energy bills, generate renewable energy,
add health and comfort to our living spaces, and make our
workplaces more productive.
The rationale. Australia’s existing buildings are not
adequately designed to meet many of the challenges we
face today. Australian houses and workplaces are often
unnecessarily cold in winter, hot in summer, and expensive
to run. We now have the technologies and know-how to
make our buildings far more comfortable, while protecting
us from rising electricity and gas bills.
The science is clear that, in order to reverse climate disruption,
developed nations must begin transitioning their economies
to zero greenhouse gas emissions, starting now. Accordingly,
in June 2010, Beyond Zero Emissions (BZE) launched the
ground-breaking Zero Carbon Australia (ZCA) Stationary
Energy Plan that showed how Australia’s electricity could
be supplied by 100% renewable energy sources within 10
years.
Chapter 1 Geoscience Application Challenges to Computing InfrastructureSpatialCloudComputing
The chapter aims to help readers develop a conceptual background understanding of
1) the 21st century geoscience challenges
2) the computing requirements posed by the challenges
3) the emergence of cloud computing
4) the advantage and disadvantages of cloud computing
Speak dollars not gadgets: How to get upper management to pay attentionJonathan Koomey
Jonathan Koomey gave this presentation at the Data Center Dynamics Conference in Seattle, WA on Sept. 4, 2014. It describes what executives need to do to modernize their IT operations, and describes an upcoming (Nov 10 to Dec 12, 2014) online class titled Data Center Essentials for Executives, see http://goo.gl/K4kJG2
BUILDING HOPE
Positive Psychology, a new branch of psychology focused on the empirical study of such things as positive emotions, strengths-based character, and healthy institutions. This emerging field offers guidance on how to feel more satisfied and engaged with life, regardless of one’s circumstances. Nineteen different scientifically-validated questionnaires on everything from love, compassion, grit and gratitude are building a robust body of data about what makes people happy and resilient.
What is hope? Hope is:
• a belief in a positive outcome related to events and circumstances in one's life
• A feeling that what you want is achievable and that events will turn out for the best.
Happiness, on the other hand, is a state of mind or feeling characterized by contentment, love, satisfaction, pleasure, or joy. Hope is about the future and happiness is about the present. You could say that people aspire to want hope and have happiness. To put it another way, hope is a means to having happiness.
Energy innovation es8928 - renewable energy policy handbook -final m coviMarco Covi
A handbook for policy makers in the renewable energy field in Ontario. The handbook places a heavy importance on better consultation and public education on energy matters when it comes to the planning of large-scale energy projects and makes several suggestions on how to improve this. The handbook is timely as it was written in the context of the 2013 LTEP. In addition it serves as an accessible scientific reference guide for decision-makers and the broader public alike.
Il World Energy Focus, nuovo mensile online della WEC's community, una e-publication gratuita per essere sempre aggiornato sugli sviluppi del settore energetico. Il World Energy Focus contiene news, interviste esclusive e uno spazio dedicato agli eventi promossi dai singoli Comitati Nazionali.
Bringing data center management and technology into the 21st CenturyJonathan Koomey
This talk is a slightly modified and condensed version of one I gave at DCD Converged in London on the morning of November 19, 2014. I gave it at VIP dinner sponsored by Siemens on the evening of that same day. I moved "One boss, one team, and one budget" to be the 2nd thing management can do, because tying IT to business performance with metrics is a prerequisite to doing the hard work of busting the silos. I realized this during the talk ("One boss, one team, and one budget" was original item #1).
This is a practical plan to fix Australia’s buildings
in a decade. We can act now to halve the energy use
of our buildings, deliver energy freedom to people
and transform our homes and workplaces to provide
greater comfort with lower energy bills.
The vision. The Zero Carbon Australia Buildings Plan is the
first comprehensive, nationwide plan to retrofit Australia’s
buildings. This plan demonstrates how all existing buildings
can reach zero emissions from their operation within ten
years. It sets out how Australia can transform its building
stock to reduce energy bills, generate renewable energy,
add health and comfort to our living spaces, and make our
workplaces more productive.
The rationale. Australia’s existing buildings are not
adequately designed to meet many of the challenges we
face today. Australian houses and workplaces are often
unnecessarily cold in winter, hot in summer, and expensive
to run. We now have the technologies and know-how to
make our buildings far more comfortable, while protecting
us from rising electricity and gas bills.
The science is clear that, in order to reverse climate disruption,
developed nations must begin transitioning their economies
to zero greenhouse gas emissions, starting now. Accordingly,
in June 2010, Beyond Zero Emissions (BZE) launched the
ground-breaking Zero Carbon Australia (ZCA) Stationary
Energy Plan that showed how Australia’s electricity could
be supplied by 100% renewable energy sources within 10
years.
Chapter 1 Geoscience Application Challenges to Computing InfrastructureSpatialCloudComputing
The chapter aims to help readers develop a conceptual background understanding of
1) the 21st century geoscience challenges
2) the computing requirements posed by the challenges
3) the emergence of cloud computing
4) the advantage and disadvantages of cloud computing
Speak dollars not gadgets: How to get upper management to pay attentionJonathan Koomey
Jonathan Koomey gave this presentation at the Data Center Dynamics Conference in Seattle, WA on Sept. 4, 2014. It describes what executives need to do to modernize their IT operations, and describes an upcoming (Nov 10 to Dec 12, 2014) online class titled Data Center Essentials for Executives, see http://goo.gl/K4kJG2
BUILDING HOPE
Positive Psychology, a new branch of psychology focused on the empirical study of such things as positive emotions, strengths-based character, and healthy institutions. This emerging field offers guidance on how to feel more satisfied and engaged with life, regardless of one’s circumstances. Nineteen different scientifically-validated questionnaires on everything from love, compassion, grit and gratitude are building a robust body of data about what makes people happy and resilient.
What is hope? Hope is:
• a belief in a positive outcome related to events and circumstances in one's life
• A feeling that what you want is achievable and that events will turn out for the best.
Happiness, on the other hand, is a state of mind or feeling characterized by contentment, love, satisfaction, pleasure, or joy. Hope is about the future and happiness is about the present. You could say that people aspire to want hope and have happiness. To put it another way, hope is a means to having happiness.
Energy innovation es8928 - renewable energy policy handbook -final m coviMarco Covi
A handbook for policy makers in the renewable energy field in Ontario. The handbook places a heavy importance on better consultation and public education on energy matters when it comes to the planning of large-scale energy projects and makes several suggestions on how to improve this. The handbook is timely as it was written in the context of the 2013 LTEP. In addition it serves as an accessible scientific reference guide for decision-makers and the broader public alike.
Il World Energy Focus, nuovo mensile online della WEC's community, una e-publication gratuita per essere sempre aggiornato sugli sviluppi del settore energetico. Il World Energy Focus contiene news, interviste esclusive e uno spazio dedicato agli eventi promossi dai singoli Comitati Nazionali.
Bringing data center management and technology into the 21st CenturyJonathan Koomey
This talk is a slightly modified and condensed version of one I gave at DCD Converged in London on the morning of November 19, 2014. I gave it at VIP dinner sponsored by Siemens on the evening of that same day. I moved "One boss, one team, and one budget" to be the 2nd thing management can do, because tying IT to business performance with metrics is a prerequisite to doing the hard work of busting the silos. I realized this during the talk ("One boss, one team, and one budget" was original item #1).
Introduction to FreeNAS development by John HixsoniXsystems
At SCALE 12x, John Hixson, Senior Software Developer at iXsystems, gave a his talk, "Introduction to FreeNAS development". FreeNAS has been around for several years now but development on it has been by very few people. Even with corporate sponsorshipt and a team of full time developers, outside interest has been minimal. Not a week goes by when a bug report or feature request is not filed. Documentation on how to develop on FreeNAS simply does not exist. Currently, the only way to come up to speed on FreeNAS development is to obtain the source code, read through it, modify it and verify it works. The goal of this paper is to create a simple FreeNAS application to demonstrate some of the common methods used when dealing with FreeNAS development, as well as showcase some of the API.
Developing Metrics and KPI (Key Performance IndicatorsVictor Holman
Get a FREE performance management kit and access to all of Victor's full videos at:
www.lifecycle-performance-pros.com
This presentation covers the basics of developing successful performance metrics, from developing winning KPIs, learning how to develop the right metrics, the rules of developing KPIs and metrics and common performance metrics for managing a successful organization.
A sham "study" cooked up by a group of people with conflicts of interest for anti-drilling, anti-fossil fuel Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey that supposedly "proves" New England doesn't need more natural gas than it has now.
Real Options Applied to Photovoltaic Generation Rolando Pringles PhD Nov 2019Giovanni Herrera
Real Options Applied to Photovoltaic Generation
Financing tools valuate & accelerate Sustainable Energy Transition Projects
R. Pringles et al., Valuation of defer and relocation options in photovoltaic generation investments by a stochastic
simulation-based method, Renewable Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.11.082
Innovation, equity and energy system transformation: implications for CCS - Presentation from Dr Karen Bickerstaff (University of Exeter) at the UKCCSRC's CCS: Issues in governance and ethics workshop in Edinburgh, 23 September 2014
Energy Sources and the Production of Electricity in the United StatesDavid Manukjan
A 48 page paper that forecasts the total costs of energy sources used in the production of electricity in the United States, based on calculations of externality costs and market price per kWh. The paper also explores realistic energy distributions for electricity production that would lower carbon emissions, while taking into consideration economic, geographical, and political feasibility.
1ANNOTATED OUTLINE 2M5A1 Energy Policy Pa.docxdrennanmicah
1
ANNOTATED OUTLINE 2
M5A1: Energy Policy Paper: Annotated Outline
I. Introduction
A. In the United States, energy policy involves the local, states and federal governmental actions related to different types of energy (Tomain, J. P. (2017).
B. The US Clean Energy Incentive Program (CEIP) was developed to help communities and states to achieve their goals by reducing or eliminating barriers to the generation of renewable energy (Mullett, 2017).
C. States may help in implementing this incentive program although it is not a requirement for them (Lane, 2016).
D. The program encourages the widespread development of renewable energy technologies that are paramount for climate strategies and long term clean energy production.
E. CEIP creates significant job opportunities from construction and deployment of renewable energy products (Tomain, J. P. (2017).
II. Policy Basis
CEIP allows states to give emission rate credits for projects focusing on clean energy or on reducing demand for energy.
A. Investment in non-renewable energy
1. CEIP helps states to invest in the generation of zero-emission energy before they met the limits of their carbon emission.
2. The program helps communities to reduce barriers of generating clean energy (Lane, 2016).
B. Expansion of Clean Energy
1. CEIP also expands clean energy incentives to a wide range of technologies beyond wind or solar power, such as hydropower and geothermal.
2. States have invested in the development of new technologies to enhance production of clean energy.
III. Achievement of Intended outcome
CEIP has partially achieved its intended outcomes despite more actions being taken to make it even more effective and practical.
A. Development of non-renewable energy
1. CEIP has helped states to develop and distribute clean energy to communities in all parts of the country.
2. The program has helped communities in different parts of the country in making businesses and homes more efficient (Lane, 2016).
B. Paris Agreement
1. The program has helped local, state and federal governments to make significant steps towards achieving the country’s commitments to Paris agreement.
2. CEIP has helped states to make significant achievements towards achieving the Paris agreement commitment (Tomain, J. P. (2017).
IV. Influence on Technology
CEIP has significant influences on the current technology. Significant investments have been done to increase the development of non renewable energy.
A. Technological designs
1. The program has forced states to develop technologies that align to its goals to help people access clean energy in their homes.
2. Outdated technology is upgraded to meet the needs of the Program and also help reduce waste of energy in low-income communities.
B. Leverage capital
1. CEIP has allowed states and communities to invest in technologies that are cost effective in development of clean energy (Borenstein & Davis, 2016).
2. The program advocates for frequent innovations to meet its commit.
Koomey's talk on energy use and the information economy at the UC Berkeley Ph...Jonathan Koomey
I gave this talk on energy use and the information economy at the UC Berkeley Physics of Sustainable Energy Symposium March 8, 2014. It summarizes what I think are the most important issues related to the direct and indirect effects of information technology on energy use.
The computing trend that will change everythingJonathan Koomey
This talk, given at the VERGE conference in Washington DC on March 15, 2012, describes in about 9 minutes the implications of the long-term trend in the energy efficiency of computing that we described in this refereed journal article: Koomey, Jonathan G., Stephen Berard, Marla Sanchez, and Henry Wong. 2011. "Implications of Historical Trends in The Electrical Efficiency of Computing." IEEE Annals of the History of Computing. vol. 33, no. 3. July-September. pp. 46-54. [http://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/MAHC.2010.28]
Why predictive modeling is essential for managing a modern computing facilityJonathan Koomey
This talk, given at Data Center Dynamics on July 12, 2013, summarizes the importance of predictive modeling to capturing lost cooling and power capacity in the data center. It also describes some results from a recent case study Future Facilities did at an Equinix data center in the Bay area.
This talk, given at Google on June 6, 2012, summarizes what we know about energy use and information technology in a clear and understandable way. The person preceding me on stage was former Vice President Al Gore, so the pressure was on! I think I delivered, but you be the judge.
Koomey on why ultra-low power computing will change everythingJonathan Koomey
This talk summarizes the implications of long-term trends in the efficiency of computing, communications, energy storage, and energy harvesting. It's one of my favorites! It took place on October 31, 2012.
This is a talk I gave at the end of my first visiting professorship at Stanford in 2004. It gives a preview of Rocky Mountain Institute's Winning the Oil Endgame study, which was released in September 2004. http://www.oilendgame.com
2007 Koomey talk on historical costs of nuclear power in the USJonathan Koomey
This is a talk I gave at the Detroit Edison Company on April 17, 2007. It's the most complete version summarizing our work on the historical costs of nuclear power. That worked appeared in three refereed journal articles:
Hultman, Nathan E., and Jonathan G. Koomey. 2007. "The risk of surprise in energy technology costs." Environmental Research Letters. vol. 2, no. 034002. July. <http: />
Hultman, Nathan E., Jonathan G. Koomey, and Daniel M. Kammen. 2007. "What history can teach us about the future costs of U.S. nuclear power." Environmental Science & Technology. vol. 41, no. 7. April 1. pp. 2088-2093.
Koomey, Jonathan G., and Nathan E. Hultman. 2007. "A reactor-level analysis of busbar costs for U.S. nuclear plants, 1970-2005." Energy Policy. vol. 35, no. 11. November. pp. 5630-5642. <http: />
The last article is the primary source--the other two derive policy insights from the data developed in that last article.
Chatty Kathy - UNC Bootcamp Final Project Presentation - Final Version - 5.23...John Andrews
SlideShare Description for "Chatty Kathy - UNC Bootcamp Final Project Presentation"
Title: Chatty Kathy: Enhancing Physical Activity Among Older Adults
Description:
Discover how Chatty Kathy, an innovative project developed at the UNC Bootcamp, aims to tackle the challenge of low physical activity among older adults. Our AI-driven solution uses peer interaction to boost and sustain exercise levels, significantly improving health outcomes. This presentation covers our problem statement, the rationale behind Chatty Kathy, synthetic data and persona creation, model performance metrics, a visual demonstration of the project, and potential future developments. Join us for an insightful Q&A session to explore the potential of this groundbreaking project.
Project Team: Jay Requarth, Jana Avery, John Andrews, Dr. Dick Davis II, Nee Buntoum, Nam Yeongjin & Mat Nicholas
Techniques to optimize the pagerank algorithm usually fall in two categories. One is to try reducing the work per iteration, and the other is to try reducing the number of iterations. These goals are often at odds with one another. Skipping computation on vertices which have already converged has the potential to save iteration time. Skipping in-identical vertices, with the same in-links, helps reduce duplicate computations and thus could help reduce iteration time. Road networks often have chains which can be short-circuited before pagerank computation to improve performance. Final ranks of chain nodes can be easily calculated. This could reduce both the iteration time, and the number of iterations. If a graph has no dangling nodes, pagerank of each strongly connected component can be computed in topological order. This could help reduce the iteration time, no. of iterations, and also enable multi-iteration concurrency in pagerank computation. The combination of all of the above methods is the STICD algorithm. [sticd] For dynamic graphs, unchanged components whose ranks are unaffected can be skipped altogether.
Show drafts
volume_up
Empowering the Data Analytics Ecosystem: A Laser Focus on Value
The data analytics ecosystem thrives when every component functions at its peak, unlocking the true potential of data. Here's a laser focus on key areas for an empowered ecosystem:
1. Democratize Access, Not Data:
Granular Access Controls: Provide users with self-service tools tailored to their specific needs, preventing data overload and misuse.
Data Catalogs: Implement robust data catalogs for easy discovery and understanding of available data sources.
2. Foster Collaboration with Clear Roles:
Data Mesh Architecture: Break down data silos by creating a distributed data ownership model with clear ownership and responsibilities.
Collaborative Workspaces: Utilize interactive platforms where data scientists, analysts, and domain experts can work seamlessly together.
3. Leverage Advanced Analytics Strategically:
AI-powered Automation: Automate repetitive tasks like data cleaning and feature engineering, freeing up data talent for higher-level analysis.
Right-Tool Selection: Strategically choose the most effective advanced analytics techniques (e.g., AI, ML) based on specific business problems.
4. Prioritize Data Quality with Automation:
Automated Data Validation: Implement automated data quality checks to identify and rectify errors at the source, minimizing downstream issues.
Data Lineage Tracking: Track the flow of data throughout the ecosystem, ensuring transparency and facilitating root cause analysis for errors.
5. Cultivate a Data-Driven Mindset:
Metrics-Driven Performance Management: Align KPIs and performance metrics with data-driven insights to ensure actionable decision making.
Data Storytelling Workshops: Equip stakeholders with the skills to translate complex data findings into compelling narratives that drive action.
Benefits of a Precise Ecosystem:
Sharpened Focus: Precise access and clear roles ensure everyone works with the most relevant data, maximizing efficiency.
Actionable Insights: Strategic analytics and automated quality checks lead to more reliable and actionable data insights.
Continuous Improvement: Data-driven performance management fosters a culture of learning and continuous improvement.
Sustainable Growth: Empowered by data, organizations can make informed decisions to drive sustainable growth and innovation.
By focusing on these precise actions, organizations can create an empowered data analytics ecosystem that delivers real value by driving data-driven decisions and maximizing the return on their data investment.
Data Centers - Striving Within A Narrow Range - Research Report - MCG - May 2...pchutichetpong
M Capital Group (“MCG”) expects to see demand and the changing evolution of supply, facilitated through institutional investment rotation out of offices and into work from home (“WFH”), while the ever-expanding need for data storage as global internet usage expands, with experts predicting 5.3 billion users by 2023. These market factors will be underpinned by technological changes, such as progressing cloud services and edge sites, allowing the industry to see strong expected annual growth of 13% over the next 4 years.
Whilst competitive headwinds remain, represented through the recent second bankruptcy filing of Sungard, which blames “COVID-19 and other macroeconomic trends including delayed customer spending decisions, insourcing and reductions in IT spending, energy inflation and reduction in demand for certain services”, the industry has seen key adjustments, where MCG believes that engineering cost management and technological innovation will be paramount to success.
MCG reports that the more favorable market conditions expected over the next few years, helped by the winding down of pandemic restrictions and a hybrid working environment will be driving market momentum forward. The continuous injection of capital by alternative investment firms, as well as the growing infrastructural investment from cloud service providers and social media companies, whose revenues are expected to grow over 3.6x larger by value in 2026, will likely help propel center provision and innovation. These factors paint a promising picture for the industry players that offset rising input costs and adapt to new technologies.
According to M Capital Group: “Specifically, the long-term cost-saving opportunities available from the rise of remote managing will likely aid value growth for the industry. Through margin optimization and further availability of capital for reinvestment, strong players will maintain their competitive foothold, while weaker players exit the market to balance supply and demand.”
Adjusting primitives for graph : SHORT REPORT / NOTESSubhajit Sahu
Graph algorithms, like PageRank Compressed Sparse Row (CSR) is an adjacency-list based graph representation that is
Multiply with different modes (map)
1. Performance of sequential execution based vs OpenMP based vector multiply.
2. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector multiply.
Sum with different storage types (reduce)
1. Performance of vector element sum using float vs bfloat16 as the storage type.
Sum with different modes (reduce)
1. Performance of sequential execution based vs OpenMP based vector element sum.
2. Performance of memcpy vs in-place based CUDA based vector element sum.
3. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector element sum (memcpy).
4. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector element sum (in-place).
Sum with in-place strategies of CUDA mode (reduce)
1. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector element sum (in-place).
Past performance is no guide to future returns: Why we can't accurately forecast the future
1. Past performance is no
guide to future returns:
Why we can’t accurately
forecast the future
Jonathan Koomey, Ph.D.
Research Fellow, Stanford University
http://www.koomey.com
Presented on a webinar for US EPA and US DOE
May 18, 2016
1
Copyright
Jonathan
G.
Koomey
2016
2. My background
• Founded LBNL’s End-Use Forecasting
group and led that group for more than 11
years.
• Peer reviewed articles and books on
– Forecasting methodology
– Economics of greenhouse gas mitigation
– Critical thinking skills
– Information technology and resource use
2
Copyright
Jonathan
G.
Koomey
2016
4. True or False?:
If only we had enough…
• Time
• Money
• Graduate Students
• Coffee
we could accurately predict the
cost of energy technologies in
2050
4
Copyright
Jonathan
G.
Koomey
2016
6. Based on my experience and
reviews of historical
retrospectives on forecasting, I
say “No way”
6
Copyright
Jonathan
G.
Koomey
2016
7. Aside: Many of the best modelers
acknowledge the difficulties in the
pursuit of accurate forecasts, but
in their heart of hearts they still
believe they can predict accurately
with greater effort
7
Copyright
Jonathan
G.
Koomey
2016
8. Uncertainty affects even physical
systems
Es=mates
of
Planck’s
constant
"h"
over
=me.
In
this
physical
system
researchers
repeatedly
underes=mated
the
error
in
their
determina=ons.
At
each
stage
uncertain=es
existed
of
which
the
researchers
were
unaware.
The
problem
of
error
es=ma=on
is
far
greater
in
long-‐range
energy
forecas=ng.
Taken
from
Koomey
et
al.
2003.
8
Copyright
Jonathan
G.
Koomey
2016
9. Forecasting Accuracy: The
Models Have Done Badly
• Energy forecasting models have little or no ability to
accurately predict future energy prices and demand
(Craig et al. 2002)
• Even the sign of the impacts of proposed policies is a
function of key assumptions (Repetto and Austin
1997)
• The dismal accuracy and inherent limitations of these
models should make modelers modest in the
conclusions they draw (Decanio 2003)
Craig, P., A. Gadgil, and J. Koomey (2002). “What Can History Teach Us? A Retrospective Analysis
of Long-term Energy Forecasts for the U.S.” Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 2002.
R. H. Socolow, D. Anderson and J. Harte. Palo Alto, CA, Annual Reviews, Inc. (also LBNL-50498). 27: 83-118.
Repetto, R. and D. Austin (1997). The Costs of Climate Protection: A Guide for the Perplexed. Washington, DC,
World Resources Institute.
DeCanio, S. J. (2003). Economic Models of Climate Change: A Critique. Basingstoke, UK, Palgrave-Macmillan.
9
Copyright
Jonathan
G.
Koomey
2016
10. One example: 1970s projections
of year 2000 U.S. primary energy
Source: Craig, Paul, Ashok Gadgil, and Jonathan Koomey. 2002. "What
Can History Teach Us?: A Retrospective Analysis of Long-term Energy
Forecasts for the U.S." In Annual Review of Energy and the Environment
2002. Edited by R. H. Socolow, D. Anderson and J. Harte. Palo Alto, CA:
Annual Reviews, Inc. (also LBNL-50498). pp. 83-118.
10
Copyright
Jonathan
G.
Koomey
2016
11. What drove errors in US primary
energy forecasts?
Copyright
Jonathan
G.
Koomey
2016
11
Graph
from
Hirsh
and
Koomey
2015
12. Another
example:
Oil
price
projec3ons
by
U.S.
DOE,
AEO
1982
through
AEO
2000
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2016
13. Not
any
beEer
aFer
2000:
Oil
price
projec3ons
by
U.S.
DOE,
AEO
2000
through
AEO
2007
13
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2016
14. Yet another example: NERC fan
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2016
14
US
electricity
genera=on
BkWh/year
15. Why Are Long-term Energy
Forecasts Almost Always Wrong?
• Core data and assumptions, which drive
results, are based on historical
experience, which can be misleading if
structural conditions change
• The exact timing and character of pivotal
events and technology changes cannot be
predicted
Laitner, J.A., S.J. DeCanio, J.G. Koomey, A.H. Sanstad. (2003) “Room for Improvement: Increasing the Value of
Energy Modeling for Policy Analysis.” Utilities Policy, 11, pp. 87-94.
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2016
16. Conditions for Model Accuracy
• Hodges and Dewar: models can be
accurate when they describe systems
that
– are observable and permit collection of
ample and accurate data
– exhibit constancy of structure over time
– exhibit constancy across variations in
conditions not specified in the model
Source: Hodges, James S., and James A. Dewar. 1992. Is it you or your model talking? A framework for model
validation. Santa Monica, CA: RAND. ISBN 0-8330-1223-1.
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17. ∑: Accurate forecasts require
structural constancy and no
surprises
17
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2016
18. Market structure can change fast
Source:
Scher
and
Koomey
2010.
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2016
19. Fast changing markets #2: US
electricity consumption
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Koomey
2016
19
Graph
from
Hirsh
and
Koomey
2015
20. Surprises can be big:
U.S. nuclear busbar costs
Source: Koomey and Hultman 2007. Assumes 7% real discount rate.
Projected cost range from Tybout 1957
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2016
21. Implications for long-term
energy forecasting
• Forecasting models describing well-defined physical
systems using correct parameters can be accurate
because physical laws are geographically and
temporally invariant (as long as there are no surprises)
• Economic, social, and technological systems do not
exhibit the required structural constancy, so models
forecasting the future of these systems are doomed to
be inaccurate. Four big sources of inconstancy
– Pivotal events (like Sept. 11th or the 1970s oil shocks)
– Technological innovation
– Institutional change
– Policy choices
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22. ∑: Economics ≠ Physics
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23. So no matter how many $, coffee
cups, months, or graduate
students you have, accurate long-
run forecasting of technology
costs is impossible
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2016
24. Two senses of the word
“impossible”:
Practically
and
Theoretically
Either way, the net result is the
same: inaccurate forecasts
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2016
25. So what does this result imply
for predictions of the costs of
energy technologies?
25
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2016
26. Some lessons
• The world is evolutionary and path dependent
– Increasing returns, transaction costs, information
asymmetries, bounded rationality, prospect theory
– Our actions now affect our options later (so do
surprises!)
• Experimentation is the order of the day
• Use real data to prove results
– For nuclear power, we’re in the “show me” stage.
Cost projections are no longer enough
• Prefer technologies that
– are mass produced vs. site-built
– have short lead times vs. longer lead times
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27. Nuke costs: here we go again?
Source: Koomey and Hultman 2007.
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2016
28. “No battle plan survives contact with the
enemy.” –Helmuth von Moltke the elder
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29. More lessons
• Use physical and technological constraints to
define bounding cases. Examples:
– 2 degrees Celsius warming limit implies a carbon
budget, which implies a certain rate of
implementation of non-fossil energy sources to
avoid worst effects of climate change.
– Certain technologies use materials that are in
limited supply. Working backwards from a goal
can help identify resource constraints.
– Lifetime of power generation technologies and
buildings limits penetration of new technologies
unless we scrap existing capital
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30. Reconsidering benefit-cost
analysis for climate
• "A corollary is that it is fruitless to attempt to determine the "optimal"
carbon tax. If neither the costs nor the benefits can be known with
any precision, just about the only thing that can be said with
certainty about the welfare maximizing price of carbon emissions is
that it is greater than zero. Economists have a great deal to say
about how to implement such a tax efficiently and effectively, about
the similarities and differences between a tax and a system of
tradable carbon emissions permits, about about the best way to
recycle the revenue from such a tax or permit system. And, as we
have seen above, the distributional consequences of such a tax or
permit auction plan will affect other economic variables through
system-wide feedbacks. However, any attempt to specify the exact
level of the "optimal" tax is less an exercise in scientific calculation
than a manifestation of the analyst’s willingness to step beyond the
limits of established economic knowledge."
• –DeCanio, Stephen J. 2003. Economic Models of Climate Change:
A Critique. Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave-Macmillan. p.157.
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31. Conclusions
• It is impossible to accurately forecast energy
technology characteristics because of
– structural inconstancy and
– pivotal events
• Forecasting community has yet to absorb the
implications of this insight
• To cope we need new ways to think about the future
– Experimental approach to implementation (try many things,
fail fast, learn quickly, try again)
– Rely on physical and technological constraints to create
bounding cases
– Embrace path dependence (there is no optimal solution,
just lots of possible pathways of roughly similar costs)
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2016
32. “The best way to predict the future is to
invent it.” –Alan Kay
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Koomey
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32
33. Some Key References
• Craig, Paul, Ashok Gadgil, and Jonathan Koomey. 2002. "What Can History Teach Us?: A
Retrospective Analysis of Long-term Energy Forecasts for the U.S." In Annual Review of Energy and
the Environment 2002. Edited by R. H. Socolow, D. Anderson and J. Harte. Palo Alto, CA: Annual
Reviews, Inc. pp. 83-118.
• Ghanadan, Rebecca, and Jonathan Koomey. 2005. "Using Energy Scenarios to Explore Alternative
Energy Pathways in California." Energy Policy. vol. 33, no. 9. June. pp. 1117-1142.
• Hirsh, Richard F., and Jonathan G. Koomey. 2015. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth:
A New Relationship with Significant Consequences?" The Electricity Journal. vol. 28, no. 9.
November. pp. 72-84. [http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040619015002067]
• Koomey, Jonathan. 2008. Turning Numbers into Knowledge: Mastering the Art of Problem Solving.
Oakland, CA: Analytics Press. 2nd edition. <http://www.analyticspress.com>
• Koomey, Jonathan. 2002. "From My Perspective: Avoiding "The Big Mistake" in Forecasting
Technology Adoption." Technological Forecasting and Social Change. vol. 69, no. 5. June. pp.
511-518.
• Koomey, Jonathan G., Paul Craig, Ashok Gadgil, and David Lorenzetti. 2003. "Improving long-range
energy modeling: A plea for historical retrospectives." The Energy Journal (also LBNL-52448). vol.
24, no. 4. October. pp. 75-92.
• Chapter 4: “Why we can’t accurately forecast the future”, in Koomey, Jonathan G. 2012. Cold Cash,
Cool Climate: Science-Based Advice for Ecological Entrepreneurs. Burlingame, CA: Analytics
Press. [http://www.analyticspress.com/cccc.html]
• Koomey, Jonathan. 2013. "Moving Beyond Benefit-Cost Analysis of Climate Change."
Environmental Research Letters. vol. 8, no. 041005. December 2. [http://iopscience.iop.org/
1748-9326/8/4/041005/]
• Laitner, J.A., S.J. DeCanio, J.G. Koomey, A.H. Sanstad. (2003) “Room for Improvement: Increasing
the Value of Energy Modeling for Policy Analysis.” Utilities Policy, vol. 11, no. 2. June. pp. 87-94.
• Scher, Irene, and Jonathan G. Koomey. 2011. "Is Accurate Forecasting of Economic Systems
Possible?" Climatic Change. Vol 104, No. 3-4, pp.473-479.
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34. More Key References
• Armstrong, J. Scott, ed. 2001. Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and
Practitioners. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
• Ascher, William. 1978. Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy Makers and Planners. Baltimore,
MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
• Cohn, Steve. 1991. "Paradigm Debates in Nuclear Cost Forecasting." Technological
Forecasting and Social Change. vol. 40, no. 2. September. pp. 103-130.
• Grubler, Arnulf, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, and David G. Victor. 1999. "Dynamics of energy
technologies and global change." Energy Policy. vol. 27, no. 5. May. pp. 247-280.
• Hodges, James S., and James A. Dewar. 1992. Is it you or your model talking? A framework for
model validation. Santa Monica, CA: RAND. ISBN 0-8330-1223-1.
• Huntington, Hillard G. 1994. "Oil Price Forecasting in the 1980s: What Went Wrong?" The
Energy Journal. vol. 15, no. 2. pp. 1-22.
• Huss, William R. 1985. "Can Electric Utilities Improve Their Forecast Accuracy? The Historical
Perspective." In Public Utilities Fortnightly. December 26, 1985. pp. 3-8.
• Landsberg, Hans H. 1985. "Energy in Transition: A View from 1960." The Energy Journal. vol. 6,
pp. 1-18.
• O'Neill, Brian C., and Mausami Desai. 2005. "Accuracy of past projections of U.S. energy
consumption." Energy Policy. vol. 33, no. 8. May. pp. 979-993.
• Tetlock, Philip E. 2005. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
• Tybout, Richard A. 1957. "The Economics of Nuclear Power." American Economic Review. vol.
47, no. 2. May. pp. 351-360.
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