The document discusses global LNG trade and supply sources. It notes that total world LNG imports are currently 33.5 Bcf/day, with Asia accounting for 23.4 Bcf/day, led by Japan at 10.5 Bcf/day. It also lists the major LNG exporters, including Qatar at 10.1 Bcf/day, Australia at 5.5 Bcf/day, and Indonesia at 2.1 Bcf/day. The US currently exports 0.4 Bcf/day but export capacity is expected to triple in the next two years.

1. LNG, Natural Gas Markets and the
Shale Play Revolution
James L. Williams
September 28, 2017
WTRG Economics
PO 250
London, AR 72847
479-293-4081
wtrg@wtrg.com

2. Energy Density Volumetric
LNG ≈ Ethanol

3. Energy Density / lb.
LNG Rules

4. LNG Trade (Bcf/day)
Exports Imports Net Exports
US 0.426 0.238 0.188
Canada 0.003 0.032 -0.030
Mexico 0.000 0.571 -0.571
Trinidad and
Tobago
1.381 0.000 1.381
Other S. &
Cent.
America
0.590 1.500 -0.911
France 0.145 0.934 -0.789
Italy 0.000 0.548 -0.548
Netherlands 0.071 0.144 -0.073
Norway 0.609 0.000 0.609
Spain 0.016 1.275 -1.259
Turkey 0.000 0.748 -0.748
United
Kingdom
0.053 1.014 -0.961
Other
Europe
0.123 0.791 -0.668
Russian
Federation
1.350 0.000 1.350
Qatar 10.101 0.000 10.101
Other
Middle East
1.749 1.369 0.380
Algeria 1.542 0.000 1.542
Other Africa 2.859 0.991 1.868
Australia 5.494 0.009 5.485
China 0.000 3.318 -3.318
Japan 0.000 10.492 -10.492
Indonesia 2.052 0.000 2.052
South Korea 0.008 4.247 -4.239
Other Asia
Pacific
4.945 5.296 -0.351
Total World 33.517 33.517 0.000

5. LNG Imports
World 33.5 Bcf/day
Asia 23.4 Bcf/day
– Japan 10.5 Bcf/day
– China 3.3 Bcf/day
– South Korea 4.2 Bcf/day
– Other Asia 5.3Bcf/day
Europe 5.4 Bcf/day

6. China Moves to Clean Fuels

7. LNG Imports Greater Than Pipeline

8. China LNG $2.00 / MMBtu > Pipeline

9. LNG Supply
– Qatar 10.1 Bcf/day
– Other Middle East 1.7 Bcf/day
– Australia 5.5 Bcf/day
– Indonesia 2.1 Bcf/day
– Other Asia Pacific 4.9 Bcf/day
– Algeria 1.5 Bcf/day
– Other Africa 2.9 Bcf/day
– Trinidad and Tobago 1.4 Bcf/day
– Russian Federation 1.4 Bcf/day
– Norway 0.6 Bcf/day
– Other S. & Cent. America 0.6 Bcf/day
– US 0.4 Bcf/day

10. Most Forecasts Show Strong Growth
Accuracy depends on pipeline

11. Export Capacity
Will Triple in Next 2 Years

12. EIA Forecast Demonstrates Uncertainty
Best Case 3 Bcf by end of 2019

13. U.S. - Net Exporter of NG

15. Imports down 4 Bcf/ day to 8 Bcf/dat

17. Exports up 4 Bcf/day since 2015

19. Consumption Seasonal Supply is Not

20. Storage is Essential to Balance the
Market

21. Consumption Driven by Weather

23. Gas Consumption for Electricity
is Counter Cyclical

24. Price Sensitive – Fuel Switching

25. Fuel Switching

26. Production Up 50% in a Decade

27. Growth Onshore Limited Hurricane
Exposure with Lower GOM Production

28. Almost 20 Bcf/day in a Decade

29. Low Price Limited Takeaway

30. Pipeline Expansion

31. Completions Exceed New Wells
DUCs in Decline

32. Permian Associated Gas Production

33. DUCs Rise - Takeaway Constrained
for Oil and Gas

34. Oil Price Triple Gas Price
Liquids Rule

35. Arkansas Has too Many Dry (gas)
Counties

36. Arkansas Production Down a Third