NPOGROW is a consulting firm that also sells an analytics platform. They developed a revenue prediction model to help non-profits determine where they could expand to hit their revenue targets. The model estimates probability distributions for philanthropic revenue in different markets based on data from 874 non-profits. It calculates the likelihood of hitting or missing a target revenue amount in each market and provides confidence intervals. The model is intended to be interpretable, standalone, and improve over time as more data is collected. It has helped with sales and provides a probabilistic method for non-profits to estimate revenue.

1. Better decisions, faster for non-profits
Jay Fuller
NPOGROW
+

2. What they do:
1. NPO consulting
2. Sell their analytics platform
What they need:
A revenue prediction
model

3. ?
?
?
?
?
Where can a NPO expand and hit
their revenue target?

4. 64%
35%
52%
43%
48%
Where can a NPO expand and hit
their revenue target?

5. the data:
revenue for 874 NPOs
$2.1M
$1.7M
$4.9M
$1.2M
$0.4M

6. the data:
revenue for 874 NPOs
approach:
estimate probability
distribution for each
market
$2.1M
$1.7M
$4.9M
$1.2M
$0.4M
PSF
PSEA

7. Revenue ($M)
#ofNPOs
Lognormal
distribution
Likelihoodof
missingtarget
Bootstrapped
95%
confidence
intervals
Revenue ($M)
Likelihoodof
hittingtarget
New York Distribution
(PNY)
Cumulative distribution function
Survival function
C
D
A
B

8. 30% of NPOs
in NYC raise
>$5M
New York
Input: $5M
revenue target
Risk estimate using a survival function
Revenue ($M)
Likelihood of
hitting target

9. Plug in any revenue target to get the probability
of hitting it$ Millions
Cities where you are most likely to your
revenue target
Demo

10. about me: PhD, neuroscience
How does the brain control movement?

11. thank you!
npogrow.org

13. Philanthropic market predicts philanthropic revenue.
Philanthropic market ($M)
Estimated philanthropic market size
($millions)
Philanthropicrevenue
($millions)

14. Philanthropic market predicts philanthropic revenue.
Philanthropic market ($M)Philanthropic market ($M)
Philanthropicrevenue($M)
?

15. My objective:
Predict the likelihood of reaching a revenue
target in each market
Desired solution properties:
1. Interpretable
2. Stand alone prototype
3. Get better with the data being collected

16. Project take-aways:
1. Probabilistic method of estimating
revenue
2. Gets better with the data Room40
is collecting
3. Prototype is driving sales of
business analytics platform

17. Plug in any revenue target to get the probability
of hitting it

18. Optimization
Problem: