This document summarizes a seminar discussing implications for Scotland in a post-2015 and post-referendum era. It outlines the post-2015 development framework process at the UN and EU levels, including proposed sustainable development goals. It also discusses trends in development finance and opportunities for Scotland to engage internationally on policy coherence for development, as well as domestically to help achieve post-2015 targets on issues like inequality and poverty.

1. NIDOS Annual Seminar
Implications for Scotland
In a post-2015 & post-Referendum Era
What do the Referendum and the
new post-2015 Framework mean
for us in Scotland?
James Mackie, ECDPM, Maastricht, Netherlands
23 October 2014

2. Outline
• The Conference
• Post-Referendum and Post-2015
• International cooperation
• The UN post-2015 process
• Goals & Transformation agenda
• Finance for development
• The European post-2015 process
• Common positions, Dev & Env
• Outstanding challenges
• Opportunities for Scotland
• International cooperation
• PCD – policy coherence for development
• Post-2015 – Action inside Scotland
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3. The Conference
• Aims: to inform, to reflect and to debate
• Very dynamic context – a threshold moment
• Post-2015 debate internationally & at home
• Post-Referendum
• Further devolution – The Smith Commission
• Creating a fairer Scotland – tackling inequality
• Widespread reflection on development policy
• Scottish Government
• UK Parliament –IDC ‘Beyond’-Aid inquiry
• EU level debate on post-2015 – new leadership
• Engaging with Scottish public in 2015
• Also 10 Years since Making Poverty History
• How to use dynamism: youth, diasporas, …
• How best to raise public awareness on 2015?
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4. Post-Referendum & post-2015
• Post Referendum
• Doing what we do already but better
• Expand Scottish international development?
• Or focus more on increasing quality?
• Dynamism of the Referendum debate
• Focus on creating a better Scotland
• What does this mean for international
cooperation?
• Post-2015
• Reframe global agenda for development
• Build on the MDGs but go further
• Wide agenda but can it be made manageable
and motivating like the MDGs?
• Wider agenda has implications for action
inside Europe and inside Scotland
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5. International Cooperation
• Debate on development has broadened
• Lessons from the MDG experience
• Focus on poverty reduction good but too limited
• Development aid not enough on its own
• Demand for development – not just poverty focus
• Experience shows importance of other issues
• Security, governance, trade, international financial
flows, global financial stability …
• Our own internal policies with external impact
• PCD – policy coherence for development – is key
• Sustainable development has 3 aspects
• So post-2015 framework has to cover a lot more
• But we also need to think differently about
development – it is not just about aid
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6. Our Collective Interest - new ETTG book
www.ettg.eu
How will we judge success of new EU
leadership?
By 2020 will the EU have helped to tackle 5
challenges?:
1.The world economy: is it becoming more
equitable, resilient and democratic?
2.Is world set on a more sustainable path?
3.Is world more peaceful and secure?
4.Is world better governed and more
democratic?
5.Have poverty and inequality declined?
10/10/14
6

7. The UN post-2015 process
• 2 working groups reported during summer:
• OWG on the goals and target – 19 July 2014
• ICESDF on the finance and means of
implementation – 15 August 2014
• UNGA – ~70 states supported OWG report
• UN Secretary General Synthesis Report
• Due end November
• Negotiations on goals start early 2015
• Co-chairs: Ireland and Kenya
• Three key moments in 2015
• Finance: UN Financing Conf. – Addis, July
• Goals: UN-GA – New York, September
• Climate: UNFCCC COP21 – Paris, December
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8. The Transformative Agenda
UN High Level Panel Report May 2013
•Five big transformative shifts
1. Leave no one behind
2. Out sustainable development at the core
3. Transform economies for jobs and inclusive
growth
4. Build peace and effective, open and
accountable institutions for all
5. Forge a new global partnership
•But what does this mean in practice?
•Need to go further than just reducing poverty
•MDGs too focused on tackling the symptoms
and not enough on the causes
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9. 1. End poverty
2. Achieve food security and improved nutrition
3. Ensure healthy lives and well-being
4. Inclusive and equitable education
5. Gender equality and empower women and girls
6. Availability of water & sanitation
7. Affordable, reliable & sustainable energy
8. Inclusive & sustainable growth
9. Resilient infrastructure, inclusive industrialisation
10.Reduce inequality within & among countries
11.Make cities inclusive, safe, resilient & sustainable
12.Sustainable consumption & production
13.Urgent action to combat climate change
14.Sustainable use of oceans, seas & marine resources
15.Sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems
16.Peaceful & inclusive societies, justice for all,
PCSD Goals proposed by OWG
inclusive institutions
17.Strengthen finance, MoI, global partnership &
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10. Development finance
• MDGs became very focused on ODA
• Financing gap notion – Jeff Sachs
• But have to think ‘Beyond Aid’ (ERD2013)
• There are a lot other types of finance
• Domestic resources
• Domestic capital
• Foreign direct investment
• Remittances
• South-South cooperation
• Finance cannot solve everything
• Policies important – national & international
• How to make most effective use of finance
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11. financing for LICs throughout the period 2002 2011 was than doubled from an estimated $29bn in 2002 to reach revenue have been achieved largely through the expansion efforts, as the average LIC has only modestly increased period. Private international finance has grown at the having made a very significant contribution), and reached by 2011. Public international finance has seen the most from $15bn in 2002 to $39bn in 2011, and remains a very Figure 4.2 Trends in development finance (public
domestic, private domestic, private
international, and public international sources)
obtained by LICs (2011 $, billion), 2002 2011
Trends in development finance
(2011 US$Bn)
Figure 4:1 Trends in development finance (public domestic, private domestic, private
international, and public international sources) obtained by developing countries (2011
$, billion), 2002 2011
Low Income Countries
Sources: ODA+OOF OECD DAC
CRS Table 1; Remittances and
private international capital, GFCF
and FDI World Development
Indicators (WDI); public revenue
IMF FAD database; Note: For ODA,
OOF, remittances and private
international capital data are drawn
directly from relevant sources; for
public revenues, data have been
calculated by the authors using IMF
FAD data on tax revenue/GDP and
WDI data for GDP.
4.2.2 Finance trends by country group
This section discusses how finance flows have evolved for each of the income country groupings, by
analysing their absolute levels (in real terms - 2011 dollars) and their levels as a proportion of GDP
across our four categories. It shows that public domestic resources have been the most significant
sources of financing for all the country income groups (especially LMICs and UMICs), with private
domestic sources at levels not far below these. It also illustrates the impressive growth in private
international sources, with public international sources being the most modest but still of major
significance for LICs. Finally, the analysis shows that despite significant growth in development
financing sources achieved by LICs, their levels of finance are dwarfed by those of MICs (especially
UMICs).
Source: ERD2014 (forthcoming)
All developing countries
63
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12. Financial flows by income level
(% of GDP)
Source: ERD2014 (forthcoming)
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13. The European debate
• High level of interest – commitment to MDGs
• Commission (DEVCO+ENV) pushing a strong
common EU position
• A Decent Life for All – 2 June 2014 [COM 335]
• Earlier policy papers in Feb & Dec 2013
• EU generally satisfied with UN process so far
• Council conclusions in Dec 2014
• Outstanding challenges:
• Goals & targets – coverage vs. number
• Global partnership – Finance and other MoI
• Universality and differentiation
I. Targets for in-country development
II. Targets for helping other countries
III.Targets for supporting global public goods
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14. Questions for Scotland
• Devolution – does S.Govt. need more powers?
• Scottish international development programme
• Expanding the effort – does that help?
• Diversification or is it better to focus more?
• Improving effectiveness – key principles to use:
ownership, alignment and harmonisation
• PCD – internal policies that affect others
• Many such policies decided at EU level:
• Trade, Agriculture, Fisheries, Migration, …
• But Scottish attitudes & behaviour affect them
• New issues: consumption, waste, renewables
• Achieving the post-2015 targets in Scotland
• Inequality & poverty: domestic & international
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15. Thank you
jm@ecdpm.org
www.ecdpm.org
www.slideshare.net/ecdpm
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