As the Chancellor delivers his Autumn Statement, new research released today finds just 15% of Britons believing their economy to be in “good” shape, with only 10% expecting to see an improvement over the next 6 months.
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
1. Global @dvisor
The Economic Pulse of the World
Citizens in 24 Countries Assess the Current State of their
Country’s Economy for a Total Global Perspective
A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38
The Economic Pulse
2. These are the findings of the Global @dvisor Wave 38 (G@38),
an Ipsos survey conducted between October 2nd and October 16th, 2012.
SURVEY METHOD COUNTRIES SAMPLE WEIGHTING
• The survey instrument is • The countries reporting herein • For the results of the survey • Weighting was then employed
conducted monthly in 24 are Argentina, Australia, presented herein, an to balance demographics and
countries around the world via Belgium, Brazil, Canada, international sample of 18,713 ensure that the sample's
the Ipsos Online Panel system. China, France, Germany, adults age 18-64 in the US and composition reflects that of the
Great Britain, Hungary, India, Canada, and age 16-64 in all adult population according to
Indonesia, Italy, Japan, other countries, were the most recent country
Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi interviewed. Approximately Census data, and to provide
Arabia, South Africa, South 1000+ individuals participated results intended to
Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey on a country by country basis approximate the sample
and the United States of via the Ipsos Online Panel with universe. The precision of
America. the exception of Argentina, Ipsos online polls are
Belgium, Hungary Indonesia, calculated using a credibility
Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi interval. In this case, a poll of
Arabia, South Africa, South 1,000 is accurate to +/- 3.5
Korea, Sweden and Turkey, percentage points and one of
where each have a sample 500 is accurate to +/- 5.0
approximately 500+. In this percentage points in their
wave (G@33), 500+ respective general populations.
individuals in Denmark also All sample surveys and polls
participated in the survey and may be subject to other
1000+ individuals in Kenya sources of error, including, but
participated in a similar survey. not limited to coverage error,
and measurement error. For
more information on credibility
intervals, please visit the Ipsos
website.
A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 2
The Economic Pulse
3. Analytic Components…
There are three analytic components that make up the findings of this monthly Economic Pulse report.
Each question is tracked and analyzed from questions dealing with:
The currently perceived macroeconomic state of
the respondent’s country:
• Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current
economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat
bad or very bad?
The currently perceived state of the local economy:
• Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,
where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.
A six month outlook for the local economy:
• Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local
area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or
much weaker than it is now?
A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 3
The Economic Pulse
4. THE WORLD at a GLANCE
THE
WORLD
at a
GLANCE
A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 4
The Economic Pulse
5. The Top Line Summary
Global @dvisor
A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 5
The Economic Pulse
6. Global Average of National Economic Assessment (36%)
Down One Point, Lowest Since 08/09 Crash
As 2012 comes to a close, global economic sentiment reflects a sense of impending
trouble. The assessment line, which has been regularly teetering up and down by a
scale of one or two points, has reached a three-year low as 36% of global citizens
agree their current national economic situation is “good”. The assessment rating
has reached its lowest point since the 2008/2009 crash.
In fact, nearly all geographic regions studied reflect a negative change in aggregate
sentiment since last sounding. The Middle East and Africa (50%) fell four points
overall, while Latin America (41%), Asia-Pacific (40%) and Europe (24%) all fell one
point. North America (46%) is the only exception as it remains unchanged, however,
this is due to the cancelling out of a two point improvement in Canada (68%) and a
two point decline in the United States (24%).
Saudi Arabia (79%), Sweden (72%), Canada (68%), China (63%) and Australia
(61%) lead the global pack as the countries with the highest proportions of
respondents assessing their national economies as “good” while Spain (3%),
Hungary (4%), Italy (6%), France (6%) and Japan (9%) sit at the bottom.
Countries with the greatest improvements in this wave: Sweden (+7pts to 72%), Indonesia (+6pts
to 46%), China (+5pts to 63%), Canada (+2pts to 68%), Poland (+2pts to 21%)
Countries with the greatest declines: Belgium (-8pts to 28%), South Korea (-8pts to 16%),
Germany (-8pts to 60%), Turkey (-6pts to 44%), South Africa (-5pts to 26%).
A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 6
The Economic Pulse
7. Global Average of Local Economic Assessment (27%)
Unchanged
The global average of local economic assessment among the core 24 countries
remains unchanged with three in ten (27%) global citizens who agree the state of
the current economy in their local area is ‘good’.
The poll finds assessments of local economies to be strongest in Saudi Arabia (53%),
Sweden (52%), China (47%), Canada (44%), Australia (42%) and Brazil (42%).
Spain (6%), Japan (6%), Hungary (8%), Italy (8%) and France (10%) sit at the bottom
of the global ranking for this metric.
Countries with the greatest improvements in local economic assessment: Indonesia
(+10pts to 36%), Sweden (+8pts to 52%), Saudi Arabia (+6pts to 53%), Brazil (+6pts
to 42%) and Russia (+3pts to 20%).
Countries with the greatest declines in local economic assessment: Germany (-8pts to
39%), Belgium (-4pts to 18%), China (-4pts to 47%), Turkey (-3pts to 32%), South
Korea (-3pts to 14%) and France (-3pts to 10%).
A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 7
The Economic Pulse
8. Global Average of Future Outlook for Local Economy
Down One Point: 22%
Currently, a global average of 22% believe their local economy will be stronger
six months from now, a figure that is one point lower than last wave.
Brazil holds on to its number one spot on this measure (74%), leading India (44%),
Saudi Arabia (44%), Indonesia (41%), Argentina (40%) and Mexico (40%).
A very small minority of those in France (3%) and Japan (5%) express they believe
their local economy will be stronger in half a year’s time. They are joined at the end of
the ranking by Hungary (7%), Belgium (8%) and Italy (9%).
Countries with the greatest improvements: Indonesia (+10pts to 41%), Brazil (+4pts
to 74%), China (+3pts to 35%), Canada (+3pts to 21%), Sweden (+3pts to 19%) and
South Africa (+3pts to 14%).
Countries with the greatest declines: United States (-5pts to 25%), Turkey (-4pts to
23%), Italy (-4pts to 9%), India (-4pts to 44%), Germany (-3pts to 11%), Russia (-3pts
to 14%), South Korea (-3pts to 13%) and Mexico (-3pts to 40%).
A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 8
The Economic Pulse
9. 1. National Economic Assessments: Countries at
a Glance Compared to the Last Wave…
Those Countries Where the National Area Economic Assessment…
has experienced a
is has experienced an is
DECLINE
HIGHEST IMPROVEMENT LOWEST
since last
this month since last sounding this month
sounding
Saudi Arabia 79% Sweden 7 Germany 8 Spain 3%
Sweden 72% Indonesia 6 Belgium 8 Hungary 4%
Canada 68% China 5 South Korea 8 France 6%
China 63% Canada 2 Turkey 6 Italy 6%
Australia 61% Poland 2 South Africa 5 Japan 9%
Germany 60% Brazil 1 Russia 4 Great Britain 15%
India 58% Great Britain 1 Mexico 2 South Korea 16%
Brazil 57% United States 2 Poland 21%
Japan 2
Saudi Arabia 1
Australia 1
Spain 1
Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 9
The Economic Pulse
10. 1. National Economic Assessment: Regions at
a Glance Compared to the Last Wave…
CHANGE
REGION NET
(since last
(in descending order by NET) ‘Good’
sounding)
BRIC 51% N/A
Middle East/Africa 50% 4%
North America 46% N/A
LATAM 41% 1%
APAC 40% 1%
G-8 Countries 27% 1%
Europe 24% 1%
Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 10
The Economic Pulse
11. 2. Local Economic Assessment: Countries at
a Glance Compared to the Last Wave…
Those Countries Where the Local Area Economic Assessment…
has experienced a
is has experienced an is
DECLINE
HIGHEST IMPROVEMENT LOWEST
since last
this month since last sounding this month
sounding
Saudi Arabia 53% Indonesia 10 Germany 8 Japan 6%
Sweden 52% Sweden 8 China 4 Spain 6%
China 47% Saudi Arabia 6 Belgium 4 Hungary 8%
Canada 44% Brazil 6 Turkey 3 Italy 8%
Australia 42% Russia 3 South Korea 3 France 10%
Brazil 42% Poland 2 France 3 South Korea 14%
Australia 1 Canada 2
South Africa 1 India 2
Hungary 1 Mexico 2
Japan 2
Argentina 1
Great Britain 1
Italy 1
Spain 1
Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,
where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy
A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 11
The Economic Pulse
12. 2. Local Economic Assessment: Regions at
a Glance Compared to the Last Wave…
REGION NET CHANGE
(in descending order by NET) ‘Strong’ (since last sounding)
Top 3 Box (5-6-7)
BRIC 37% N/C
Middle East/Africa 36% 1%
North America 34% N/C
APAC 29% N/C
LATAM 28% 1%
G-8 Countries 20% 2%
Europe 19% 1%
Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,
where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 12
The Economic Pulse
13. 3. Six Month Outlook on the Local Economy: Countries
at a Glance Compared to the Last Wave…
Countries where the Assessment of the Local Economic Strengthening …
is has experienced an has experienced a is
HIGHEST IMPROVEMENT DECLINE LOWEST
this month since last sounding since last sounding this month
Brazil 74% Indonesia 10 United States 5 France 3%
India 44% Brazil 4 India 4 Japan 5%
Saudi Arabia 44% China 3 Turkey 4 Hungary 7%
Indonesia 41% Canada 3 Italy 4 Belgium 8%
Argentina 40% Sweden 3 Mexico 3 Italy 9%
Mexico 40% South Africa 3 Russia 3 Great Britain 10%
China 35% Poland 2 South Korea 3 Poland 10%
Hungary 2 Germany 3 Germany 11%
Australia 1 Saudi Arabia 2 Spain 11%
Great Britain 1 Belgium 2
Japan 2
Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be
much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 13
The Economic Pulse
14. 3. Six Month Outlook on Local Economy: Regions at
a Glance Compared to Last Wave…
REGION NET CHANGE
(in descending order by NET) ‘Stronger’ (since last sounding)
LATAM 52% 1%
BRIC 42% N/C
Middle East/Africa 27% 1%
North America 23% 1%
APAC 24% N/C
G-8 Countries 12% 2%
Europe 10% N/C
Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be
much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 14
The Economic Pulse
15. DETAILED FINDINGS
A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 15
The Economic Pulse
16. Assessing The Current Economic
Situation …
…in Their Country
Detailed Tables B.3
A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 16
The Economic Pulse
17. Global Citizens Assess the Current Economic Situation in their
Country as “Good”
‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’
Total 36%
Saudi Arabia 79%
Sweden 72%
Canada 68%
China 63%
Australia 61%
Germany 60%
India 58%
Brazil 57%
Indonesia 46%
Turkey 44%
Argentina 36%
Mexico 32%
Belgium 28%
Russia 27%
South Africa 26%
United States 24%
Poland 21%
South Korea 16%
Great Britain 15%
Japan 9%
France 6%
Italy 6%
Hungary 4%
Spain 3%
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic
situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 17
The Economic Pulse
18. Global Average Tracked - Global Citizens Assess the Current
Economic Situation in their Country as “Good”:… 1
Total Good
70%
60% 56% 55%
50% 45%
42% 41% 41%
40% 41% 40% 40% 41% 40% 41% 40% 40%
38% 38% 39% 39% 38% 38% 39% 38% 39% 38% 39% 39% 39% 38% 37% 37% 38% 38% 37%
40% 32% 36%
29%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Mar/11
Mar/12
Oct/07
Oct/10
Oct/11
Nov/08
Nov/10
Oct-12
Jan/11
Nov/11
Jan/12
May/10
Nov/Jan/10
Jun/10
Feb/11
May/11
Jun/11
Feb/12
May/12
Jun/12
Jul/10
Jul/11
Jul/12
Sep/10
Dec/10
Sep/11
Dec/11
Sep/12
Aug/10
Aug/11
Aug/12
Apr/07
Apr/08
Apr/09
Apr/10
Apr/11
Apr/12
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 18
The Economic Pulse
20. Countries Ranked and Marked By Change In Assessment From Last Month
(Left Column) Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert
country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
% Very Good / Somewhat Good
Total (-1) 36%
Sweden (+7) 72%
Indonesia (+6) 46%
China (+5) 63%
Canada (+2) 68%
Poland (+2) 21%
Brazil (+1) 57%
Great Britain (+1) 15%
India (N/C) 58%
Argentina (N/C) 36%
France (N/C) 6% Green marks countries experiencing improvement;
Italy (N/C) 6%
Blue marks countries with no change from last month;
Red marks countries experiencing a decline…
Hungary (N/C) 4%
Saudi Arabia (-1) 79%
Australia (-1) 61%
Spain (-1) 3%
Mexico (-2) 32%
United States (-2) 24%
Japan (-2) 9%
Russia (-4) 27%
South Africa (-5) 26%
Turkey (-6) 44%
Germany (-8) 60%
Belgium (-8) 28%
South Korea (-8) 16%
A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 20
The Economic Pulse
21. Countries Ranked by Net Improvement, Decline or No Change Compared to
Last Month: Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Sweden (+7) 7%
Indonesia (+6) 6%
China (+5) 5%
Canada (+2) 2%
Poland (+2) 2%
Brazil (+1) 1%
Great Britain (+1) 1%
India (N/C) 0%
Argentina (N/C) 0%
France (N/C) 0%
Italy (N/C) 0%
Hungary (N/C) 0%
-1% Saudi Arabia (-1)
-1% Australia (-1)
-1% Spain (-1)
-2% Mexico (-2)
-2% United States (-2)
-2% Japan (-2)
-4% Russia (-4)
-5% South Africa (-5)
-6% Turkey (-6)
-8% Germany (-8)
-8% Belgium (-8)
-8% South Korea (-8)
A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 21
The Economic Pulse
22. Assessing the Current Economic Situation by All Regions:
Very Good / Somewhat Good
80%
71%
70%
64%
60% 61%
50% 51% 51%
50%
45% 46%
40% 41%
40%
30%
27%
24%
20%
10%
Apr 2007
Apr 2008
Nov 2008
Apr 2009
Apr 2010
Nov 2010
Apr 2011
Nov 2011
Apr 2012
Nov/Jan/10
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Mar 2010
May 2010
Aug 2010
Aug 2012
Jun 2010
Feb 2011
Mar 2011
May 2011
Aug 2011
Jun 2011
Feb 2012
Mar 2012
May 2012
Jun 2012
Jul 2010
Jul 2011
Jul 2012
Oct 2007
Sep 2010
Oct 2010
Dec 2010
Sep 2011
Oct 2011
Dec 2011
Sep 2012
Oct 2012
North America (Can/US) LATAM Europe APAC G8 BRIC Middle East/Africa
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 22
The Economic Pulse
23. North American (Canada/US) Countries
Assessing the Current Economic Situation N/C
Very Good / Somewhat Good
100%
90%
80%
80%
70%
68%
60%
47%
50%
40%
30%
24%
20%
10%
0%
Mar/11
Mar/12
Oct/11
Oct/12
Nov/11
Jan/12
Apr 2007
Apr 2008
Nov 2008
Apr 2009
Nov 2010
May/11
Apr 2010
Jan 2011
Jun/11
Feb/12
May/12
Jun/12
Jul/11
Sept/11
Jul/12
Mar 2010
May 2010
Aug 2010
Dec/11
Sep/12
Nov/Jan 2010
Jun 2010
Feb 2011
Jul 2010
Sept 2010
Oct 2007
Oct 2010
Dec 2010
Aug/11
Aug/12
Apr/11
Apr/12
United States Canada
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 23
The Economic Pulse
24. LATAM Countries
Assessing the Current Economic Situation 1
Very Good / Somewhat Good
80%
70%
60%
57%
50% 50%
42%
40%
36%
32%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Nov-08
Nov-10
Nov-11
May-10
Mar-10
Jun-10
Feb-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jun-11
Feb-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jun-12
Nov-09/Jan-10
Jul-10
Sept-10
Jul-11
Sept-11
Jul-12
Oct-07
Oct-10
Dec-10
Oct-11
Dec-11
Sep-12
Oct-12
Jan-11
Jan-12
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Aug-10
Aug-11
Aug-12
Brazil Argentina Mexico
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 24
The Economic Pulse
25. European Countries
Assessing the Current Economic Situation 1
Very Good / Somewhat Good
90%
80%
72%
70%
64%
60% 59% 60%
55%
50% 50%
40%
30%
28%
27%
20% 21%
15%
10%
6%
4%
3%
0%
Nov-08
Nov-10
Nov-11
May-10
May-12
Mar-10
Jun-10
Feb-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jun-11
Feb-12
Mar-12
Jun-12
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Sept-11
Oct-07
Sep-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Oct-11
Dec-11
Sep-12
Oct-12
Jan-11
Jan-12
Nov/Jan 2010
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Aug-10
Aug-11
Aug-12
Germany France Spain Sweden Great Britain Belgium Italy Hungary Poland
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 25
The Economic Pulse