Major Trends: 2013 and Beyond

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Bobby Duffy, MD, Ipsos Social Research Institute and Visiting Senior Research Fellow, King’s College London presented Britons' predictions for 2013 as well as public attitudes to cuts to local government services to the New Local Government Network (NLGN) think tank on 30 January 2013

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Major Trends: 2013 and Beyond

  1. 1. 1 Version 1 | PublicMajor trends – 2013 and beyondBobby DuffyMD Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute,Visiting Senior Research Fellow, King’s College London© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  2. 2. 2Start withsomepredictionsfor 2013...© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  3. 3. > 3 = 1/2 = 3/10 = 1/2 > = 4/10 = 1/5© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  4. 4. 461% think Britainwill fall back intorecession© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  5. 5. Extraordinary year in 2012 – but still one big issue....all seemed to be going well for a few years.... 5 What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Brown becomes Cameron becomes PM PM7060 The economy5040302010 0 May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Representative sample of c. 1000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Ipsos MORI Issues Index© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  6. 6. Exceptional crisis – but worry about the economy isthe norm... 6What would you say is the most/other important issue facing Britain today? 90 80 Economy 70 60 50 Unemployment 40 30 20 10 Inflation/prices 0 Ipsos MORI Issues Index© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  7. 7. Not a global crisis – and we’re in the unhappiest group 7 Net last five years good for country Brazil 40% R² = 0.49 20% Sweden 0% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%Net disagree -20% Net agreecountry will country willnever be the Belgium never be the -40%same again France same again -60% GB Italy -80% Spain Hungary Net last five years bad for countryBase: 17,678 online interviews with adults aged 16/18-64 in 23 countries, September 4-18 2012. Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  8. 8. A new reality – where we expect our children to have alower quality of life than us 8When they reach your age, do you think your children will have a higher or lower quality of lifethan you, or about the same? % Higher % Lower November 2011 23 42 35 April 2003 43 45 12Base: 1,006 British adults aged 18+, 19th-21st November 2011 Ipsos MORI© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  9. 9. 9How do wefeel aboutlocal?© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  10. 10. Satisfaction with local govt as high as it’s been... 10How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way your local council runsthings? 50% 45% 40% Net Satisfaction 35% 30% 25% 20% National net satisfaction 15% 10% 5% 0% 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Year surveyed Ipsos MORI© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  11. 11. Trust is up… 11 Trust % Local Council 70 64 61 62 60 60 57 52 54 50 Per cent 40 30 20 10 2001 2003 2005 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11Core sample in England; (2001: 9,270, 2003: 8,859, 2005: 9,104, 2007-08: 8,729, 2008-09: 8,706, 2009-10: 8,677, 2010-11: 9,521) Ipsos MORI© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  12. 12. People recognise councils have an impact on everydaylives 12From this list, which two or three of the following do you believe have most impact onpeople’s everyday lives? Change since 2006 ±%points Media 63% +9 Local councils 50% +1 Business 44% +7 Civil service 23% +3 European Union 20% n/a Westminster Parliament 19% -8 Prime Minister 17% -7 Cabinet 5% -2 Scottish Parliament/ n/a Welsh Assembly 6% (asked in Wales/ Scotland only) Don’t know 4%Base: 1,156 British adults 18+. Fieldwork dates: 13th - 19th November 2009 Source: Ipsos MORI© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  13. 13. Clear preference for local decision-making 13Who do you trust most to make decisions about how services are provided inyour local area? 2% 8% Your local council 11% The Coalition government Neither 79% Dont know 75% of Conservative votersBase: 1,015 British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  14. 14. 14 Version 1 | Public Some love for local – because some loathing of national politics?© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  15. 15. Trust in politicians never been high... 15...would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not? 100 90 Doctors 80 Teachers 70 60 50 Ordinary man/woman in the street 40 Civil servants 30 Politicians 20 10 Journalists 0 1983 1993 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011Base: c.1,000-2,000 Source: Ipsos MORI/British Medical Associatypn© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  16. 16. How trusted are local government professions? 16...would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not? 100 90 Doctors 80 Teachers 70 60 50 Ordinary man/woman in the street 40 Civil servants Local Councillors 30 Managers in Local Government Politicians 20 10 Journalists 0 1983 1993 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011Base: c.1,000-2,000 Source: Ipsos MORI/British Medical Associatypn© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  17. 17. But this is serious... 17How much do you trust a British government of any party to place the needs of thiscountry above the interests of their own political party? 40 % “almost never” 30% 20 10 A real crisis of trust? 0 Source: British Social Attitudes, 1986-2009© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  18. 18. And confidence in the government’s policies on public services falling… 18Do you agree or disagree… “In the long term, this government’s policies will improve thestate of Britain’s public services” 2001 General Election (Jun 01) 2010 General Election; 2005 General Election Brown as PM Cameron as PM % net (May 05) (Jun 07) (May 10) agree 20 22 10 6 3 0 -2 0 -10 -10 -14 -13 -13 -18 -19 -17 -20 -21 -20 -22 -22 -27 -28 -27 -30 -28 -28 -29 -34 -32 -40 c.1,000 British Adults Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  19. 19. 19There’s also alocal/nationalcontrast inblame for cuts© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  20. 20. Who’s getting the blame for cuts now? 20From what you know, who do you think is most to blame for the level of cutsto public services? 31 The previous Labour government 26 29 Banks 23 18 March 2011 The state of the global economy 21 January 2013 10 The Coalition government 21 5 Local Councils 4Base: 1,015 British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  21. 21. And when you look at local services? 21 The previous Labour 25 government 26 Most to blame for the 11 level of cuts to local Banks council services? 23 Most to blame for the The state of the 17 level of cuts to public global economy 21 services? The Coalition 30 government 21 13 Local Councils 4Base: 1,015 British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  22. 22. Are people expecting more for less? Or willing to paymore for the same? 22To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the followingstatements Disagree Agree 30% strongly 12% stronglyI am personally happy to accept less from my local council than I currently get in order to 57 40 help pay off the national debt I would be happy to pay more council tax if it helped my local council maintain current 64 34 levels of service 36% strongly 9% stronglyBase: 1,015 British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  23. 23. Majority haven’t noticed changes to service – BUT... 23To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the followingstatements Disagree Agree North a bit more likely to have noticed – but largest differences by class and party support I haven’t really noticed any changes to the 34 65 services provided by my local councilThe cuts in local council services have gone 47 48 too far and will lead to social unrest Agree = 29% Conservatives, 60% LabourBase: 1,015 British adults 18+ Around one in four people agree with both statements.... MORI, January 2013 Ipsos© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  24. 24. There is worry about the future... 24How concerned, if at all, are you about the effects of cuts [to local councilservices] on you and your family in the next 12 months? Local council services Cuts generally 1 6 12 5 21 Very 19 concerned Fairly concerned Not very 28 concerned 32 Not at all concerned 34 Dont know 42Base: 1,015 British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  25. 25. Varies as you’d expect… 25% very or fairly concerned about the effect of the cuts on them and theirfamilies 77 69 72 72 61 62 60 61 55 58 54 52 54 All AB C1 C2 D E Up to £20k - £35k - £55k+ 1-2 3 services 4+ £19k £35k £55k services services Social grade Income Public service useBase: All members of the public interviewed online in GB (1,009); fieldwork, 9-11 November 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  26. 26. 26 Version 1 | PublicTwo other key trends…© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  27. 27. Our generational balance is changing fundamentally –four roughly equal-sized and very different generations... 27Proportion of UK adult (18+) population from each generational grouping 100% 90% % pre war generation 80% 70% 60% 50% % Baby boomers 40% 30% 20% % Generation X 10% % Generation Y 0% 83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Eurostat© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  28. 28. Support for political parties is declining – maybe not by as muchas expect?... 28Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party? 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: British Social Attitudes© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  29. 29. ...driven by rock solid generational pattern 29Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party? 70% 60% 50%% ‘yes’ 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Pre war Baby boomers Generation x Generation yEach sample point represents >100 respondents BSA. Population data from Eurostat© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  30. 30. Declining support for more welfare spending... 30“the government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor,even if it leads to higher taxes” 70% 60% Agree total 50% 55% 39% 40% 30% 22% Disagree total 28% 20% 10% 0% 1987 1989 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Each sample point represents >100 respondents BSA. Population data from Eurostat© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  31. 31. Generations are very different... 31“the government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor,even if it leads to higher taxes” 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% @BobbyIpsosMORI 0% 1987 1989 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)Each sample point represents >100 respondents BSA. Population data from Eurostat© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  32. 32. 32Lot of focus on “Nudging”behaviour change, using itin demand management,pensions, on organdonation and in lettersfrom tax collectors…..© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  33. 33. 33“If a man sees afly, he aims at it”“Schhpillage was down by 80%...”© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  34. 34. 34Explosion of behavioural data ...mobile in particular© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  35. 35. 90% smartphone ownership in 2-3 years... 35 60% Any Smartphone 50% 50 (net) 40% 30% 23 20% 20 17 12 13 10% 9 9 0% Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Nov 12Base: circa 1,000 GB adults aged 15+ per wave Source: Ipsos MORI© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  36. 36. 36© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  37. 37. 37© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  38. 38. 38© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  39. 39. 39© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  40. 40. Location & URL Behavioural Data 40By Location we can identify, volume, demographics, web use and web based App use Identify the demographics by location Web & web based app: before, during & after they’ve been at location Identify the volume of people by location, where they have come from, where they go to© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  41. 41. Paste co- brand logoEverything Everywhere’s Customer Database here 41 Demographically Profiled Phone Usage Mobile Web Domain Duration on site 28 million Session length Previous/next sites UK SIMS = D.O.B, visited 15 million Postcode & gender Amount of data uploaded/downloaded consumers Geo Location© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  42. 42. Location & URL Behavioural Data 42Saturday 30/06: 124,000 People at Oxford Circus search on the mobile web 4,509 went 364 went on on to BBC to Pornhub 3,048 went on to Ebay 1,264 went on to TFL© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  43. 43. A day in the life of XX borough... 43•Where people go at different points of day•Who goes where? Profile by individual/geo- demographics•Who never leaves?•What media do they look at, generally and about local issues?•Can you trigger interaction when residents go to particular places/do particular things?•Can this be linked to other data?© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  44. 44. In conclusion... 44• There is definitely a crisis of trust in political institutions…• …not really affecting local government – yet• Most haven’t noticed cuts yet – a real credit to public services and councils• But fearful about the future for services, and for themselves• Criticism of local government not working for central government – but opinions likely to shift more as people notice change• Need to understand your whole population, generational differences increasingly important...• Huge opportunities from technology to understand behaviours and interact more• Good luck...© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  45. 45. Thank youBobby.duffy@ipsos.com@BobbyIpsosMORI

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