1. Paste co-
brand logo
here
Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
October 2012

2. 2
Independence

3. Paste co-
Support for independence has fallen to 30% among those brand logo
here
certain to vote, down five points since June 3
Q. Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?
All Certain to vote
Undecided Undecided
Yes 12% Yes
19%
28% 30%
58%
No 52% No
„Yes‟ change since June = -4% „Yes‟ change since June = -5%
Base: All = 1,003; all certain to vote = 66% (688). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012
© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

4. Paste co-
Support for independence is highest among men, those agedbrand logo
35-
here
54 and SNP supporters 4
Q. Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?
Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ SNP Labour Cons. Lib
Dem
67%
37% 30% 35%
24% 27% 27%
11% 4% 7% Yes
17% No
54% 49% 55%
61% 63% 62%
79% 86%
92%
Base: All certain to vote = 66% (688). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012
© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

5. Paste co-
Support for independence has fallen by nine points since brand logo
here
January 5
Q. Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?
January 2012 June 2012 October 2012
39% 35% 30%
Yes
No
50% 55% 58%
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

6. Paste co-
Support for independence – 35 year trend brand logo
here
6
60
50 Scottish Parliament opens
Support for independence (%)
Introduction of the poll tax
Devolution referendum SNP form majority
in Scotland
government
40
30
20
SNP form minority
government
10
Devolution referendum
0
2011
1981
1987
1993
1999
1978
1979
1980
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)
© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

7. 7
Scottish Parliament voting

8. Paste co-
The SNP have a five point lead over Labour among those certainlogo
brand
to vote… here
8
Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use
your first vote?
All giving a voting All who are certain to
intention (91%) vote (63%)
Others Others
Lib Dem 5% Lib Dem 4% SNP
SNP 8%
8%
Cons. Cons.
12% 36% 13% 40%
35%
Labour 39% Labour
SNP lead over Labour = -3% SNP lead over Labour = +5%
Base: All giving a voting intention = 88% (880); all certain to vote = 63% (642). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012
© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

9. … although Labour have closed the gap considerably since Paste co-
brand logo
here
January 9
Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use
your first vote?
Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other
60 Scottish Parliament Election Scottish Parliament Election
Result Result
50
40 40%
35%
30
20
13%
10 8%
4%
0
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

10. 10
Satisfaction with party leaders

11. Paste co-
Satisfaction with all party leaders has fallen since June – except for the brand logo
here
Prime Minister 11
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime
Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?
Don‟t know Net satisfaction Net satisfaction
change (Jun
Dissatisfied Satisfied ‟12)
Alex Salmond 40% 50% 9% +10% -3%
Johann Lamont 30% 35% 34% +5% -4%
Ruth Davidson 35% 26% 39% -9% -2%
Willie Rennie 30% 23% 47% -7% -3%
Patrick Harvie 16% 22% 62% +6% -6%
David Cameron 64% 29% 8% -35% +11%
Base: 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012
© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

12. Paste co-
Satisfaction with Alex Salmond and Johann Lamont has fallen among their logo
brand
own party’s supporters here
12
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime
Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?
Don‟t know Net satisfaction Net satisfaction
change (Jun
Dissatisfied Satisfied ‟12)
Alex Salmond 9% 83% 8% +74% -10%
Johann Lamont 18% 58% 24% +40% -6%
Ruth Davidson 18% 59% 23% +41% +15%
Willie Rennie 15% 54% 31% +39% +5%
David Cameron 16% 75% 9% +59% +27%
Base: 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012
© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

13. Paste co-
brand logo
Satisfaction with party leader trends here
13
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime
Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?
Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie
70
60
50 50%
40
35%
30 26%
23%
20 22%
10
0
Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

14. Paste co-
Technical details brand logo
here
14
• This presents the topline results from Scotland
• Results are based on a survey of 1,003 respondents
conducted by telephone
• Fieldwork dates: 8th October – 15th October 2012
• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using
census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private
sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly
Public Sector Employment series data
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to
computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of
“don‟t know” categories
• Results are based on all respondents (1,003) unless
otherwise stated
© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

15. Paste co-
brand logo
here
Thank you
mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269 @IpsosMORIScot
christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264 18.10.12
© Ipsos MORI This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006.