SlideShare a Scribd company logo
INVESTOR BEHAVIOR Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials,  © 2009  Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
Seeing Is Not Believing Which gray circle is bigger? Which gray bar is longer? Are the gray horizontal lines parallel? This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc.  All rights reserved. Used with permission.
Rational Minds Can Act Irrationally They are the same size. They are the same size. The horizontal lines are parallel. This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc.  All rights reserved. Used with permission.
The Efficient-Market Theory  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc.   All rights reserved. Used with permission.
Patterns of Investor Irrationality  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc.   All rights reserved. Used with permission.
Overconfidence ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc.   All rights reserved. Used with permission.
Overconfidence: False Perception Historical Performance of Emerging-Markets Stocks 2003  –  2008 80% Return 60 20 0 - 2 0 - 6 0 40 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 56.3% 26.0% 34.5% 32.6% 39.8% - 4 0 -53.2% Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  •  An investment cannot be made directly in an index. •  This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc.  All rights reserved. Used with permission.
Hindsight Bias ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc.   All rights reserved. Used with permission.
Hindsight Bias: Technology and Real Estate Bubbles An Examination of Technology Stocks and Home Values $367 $201 $2,000 1,000 100 1992 1991 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 100 200 $300 1995 1999 2003 2007 Technology Bubble Real Estate Bubble* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  •  An investment cannot be made directly in an index. •  *Data available through November 2008.   This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment.  3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc.   All rights reserved. Used with permission.
Short-Term Focus ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc.   All rights reserved. Used with permission.
Short-Term Focus: Avoiding Potential Near-Term Losses Choice of Asset Allocation After Examining Different Return Distributions When shown a distribution of  one-year returns , investors allocated 40% to stocks. When shown a distribution of  30-year returns , investors allocated 90% to stocks. •  Stocks  40% •  Bonds   60% 40% 60% 10% 90% Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  •  An investment cannot be made directly in an index. •  Source: Shlomo Benartzi and Richard H. Thaler, “Risk Aversion or Myopia? Choices in Repeated Gambles and Retirement Investments,” June 1998. This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc.  All rights reserved. Used with permission. •  Stocks  90% •  Bonds   10%
Short-Term Focus: Coping with Near-Term Fluctuations  Probability of Losing Money in the Market 1989 – 2008 0 Daily 40 30 20 10 Monthly Quarterly Annually Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  •  An investment cannot be made directly in an index. •  This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc.  All rights reserved. Used with permission. 50% Probability 46% 37% 30% 25%
Regret ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc.   All rights reserved. Used with permission.
Regret: Action Versus Inaction  Analyzing Various Types of Regret 10 9 $50k $44,410 Jan  07 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan  08 Mar May Jul Sep Investor A purchased shares of Company ABC. Investor A sold shares of Company ABC. Investor B considered purchasing shares of Company ABC, but did not. Nov Jan  09 Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  •  An investment cannot be made directly in an index. •  This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc.  All rights reserved. Used with permission.
Mental Accounting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc.   All rights reserved. Used with permission.
Mental Accounting: Sum of the Parts Risk and Return Characteristics 1970  –  2008 Total Portfolio Return: 9.9% Risk: 11.6% Large Stocks Return: 9.5% Risk: 18.2% Small Stocks Return: 11.7% Risk: 23.8% Bonds Return: 9.3% Risk: 11.4% Cash Return: 5.8% Risk: 2.9% International Stocks Return: 9.7% Risk: 23.2% Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  •  An investment cannot be made directly in an index. •  This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc.  All rights reserved. Used with permission.
Hot-Hand Fallacy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc.   All rights reserved. Used with permission.
Hot-Hand Fallacy: Asset-Class Winners and Losers Annual Performance of Various Asset Classes 1994 – 2008 2007 11.6 IS 9.9 LTGB 4.7 TB 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 8.1% IS 21.5 LTGB 17.8 LTGB 20.7 IS 14.0 IS 26.9 IS 3.9 TB 20.3 IS 27.3 IS 5.9 TB 3.8 TB 1.6 TB 39.2 IS 7.8 LTGB 31.7 LTGB 6.4 IS 15.9 LTGB 13.1 LTGB 3.7 LTGB 1 1.6 IS 5.2 TB 5.3 TB 4.9 TB 4.7 TB - 15.7 IS 1.4 LTGB 8.5 LTGB 4.8 TB - 7.8 LTGB 5.6 TB - 0.9 LTGB 2.1 IS - 9.0 LTGB - 14.0 IS - 21.2 IS 1.0 TB 1.2 TB 3.0 TB 1.2 LTGB Highest Return Lowest Return 2008 25.9 LTGB 1.6 TB -43.1 IS Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  •  An investment cannot be made directly in an index. •  This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc.  All rights reserved. Used with permission. -5.2 SS 29.8 SS 22.8 SS 60.7 SS 34.5 SS 17.6 SS 22.8 SS 18.4 SS 16.2 SS 3.1 SS - 3.6 SS - 13.3 SS 5.7 SS - 7.3 SS -36.7 SS 5.5 LS 37.6 LS 23.0 LS 33.4 LS 28.6 LS 21.0 LS 28.7 LS 10.9 LS 15.8 LS 1.3 LS - 9.1 LS - 11.9 LS 4.9 LS - 22.1 LS -37.0 LS Large Stocks (LS) Small Stocks (SS) International Stocks (IS) Long-Term Government Bonds (LTGB) Treasury Bills (TB)
Hot-Hand Fallacy: Chasing Fund Performance   Wealth Versus Cash Flows 1999  –  2008 •   Growth of $10,000 •   Cash Flows 10-year Fund Total Return = -0.50% 10-year Average Investor Return = -12.55% 0 5 10 15 20 25 $30k -400 0 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 $1,600m -200 200 2008 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  •  An investment cannot be made directly in an index. •  This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc.  All rights reserved. Used with permission.
Summary  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc.   All rights reserved. Used with permission.
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],March 1, 2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission. 2009 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC • 2009 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC Continued on next slide Disclosures
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],March 1, 2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission. 2009 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC • 2009 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC Disclosures  (continued)

More Related Content

What's hot

Arbitrage pricing theory (apt)
Arbitrage pricing theory (apt)Arbitrage pricing theory (apt)
Arbitrage pricing theory (apt)
Dr. Satyanarayan Pandey
 
Modern Portfolio Theory
Modern Portfolio TheoryModern Portfolio Theory
Modern Portfolio Theory
GURU GHASIDAS VISHWAVIDYALAYA
 
Efficient market hypothesis
Efficient market hypothesisEfficient market hypothesis
Efficient market hypothesis
IMS Unison University
 
Portfolio revision
Portfolio revisionPortfolio revision
Portfolio revisionAshwini Das
 
Capital asset pricing model
Capital asset pricing modelCapital asset pricing model
Capital asset pricing model
Anuj Bhatia
 
technical analysis
technical analysistechnical analysis
technical analysis
kalathilvipin30
 
Bubbles ppt, behavioural finance
Bubbles ppt, behavioural financeBubbles ppt, behavioural finance
Bubbles ppt, behavioural finance
ranaji34
 
Fundamental analysis
Fundamental analysisFundamental analysis
Fundamental analysis
mahadeva prasad
 
Capital Market
Capital MarketCapital Market
Capital Market
Utkarsh Bisht
 
Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM
Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPMCapital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM
Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM
Arvinderpal Kaur
 
Differences between Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis
Differences between Fundamental Analysis and Technical AnalysisDifferences between Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis
Differences between Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis
Dhanashri Academy
 
Career opportunities in finance
Career opportunities in financeCareer opportunities in finance
Career opportunities in finance
Bashyakar Mattapalli
 
Fundamental analysis ppt
Fundamental analysis pptFundamental analysis ppt
Fundamental analysis pptDharmik
 
ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY AND MULTIFACTOR MODELS.ppt
ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY AND MULTIFACTOR MODELS.pptARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY AND MULTIFACTOR MODELS.ppt
ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY AND MULTIFACTOR MODELS.ppt
PankajKhindria
 
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT STRATEGIESPORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
AMAR ID
 
Market efficiency
Market efficiencyMarket efficiency
Market efficiency
Mohammad Ayub
 
Financial Markets
Financial MarketsFinancial Markets
Financial Markets
Mohammed Jasir PV
 
Random walk theory
Random walk theoryRandom walk theory
Random walk theory
Monzur Morshed Patwary
 
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
VadivelM9
 

What's hot (20)

Arbitrage pricing theory (apt)
Arbitrage pricing theory (apt)Arbitrage pricing theory (apt)
Arbitrage pricing theory (apt)
 
Modern Portfolio Theory
Modern Portfolio TheoryModern Portfolio Theory
Modern Portfolio Theory
 
Efficient market hypothesis
Efficient market hypothesisEfficient market hypothesis
Efficient market hypothesis
 
Markowitz model
Markowitz modelMarkowitz model
Markowitz model
 
Portfolio revision
Portfolio revisionPortfolio revision
Portfolio revision
 
Capital asset pricing model
Capital asset pricing modelCapital asset pricing model
Capital asset pricing model
 
technical analysis
technical analysistechnical analysis
technical analysis
 
Bubbles ppt, behavioural finance
Bubbles ppt, behavioural financeBubbles ppt, behavioural finance
Bubbles ppt, behavioural finance
 
Fundamental analysis
Fundamental analysisFundamental analysis
Fundamental analysis
 
Capital Market
Capital MarketCapital Market
Capital Market
 
Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM
Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPMCapital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM
Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM
 
Differences between Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis
Differences between Fundamental Analysis and Technical AnalysisDifferences between Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis
Differences between Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis
 
Career opportunities in finance
Career opportunities in financeCareer opportunities in finance
Career opportunities in finance
 
Fundamental analysis ppt
Fundamental analysis pptFundamental analysis ppt
Fundamental analysis ppt
 
ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY AND MULTIFACTOR MODELS.ppt
ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY AND MULTIFACTOR MODELS.pptARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY AND MULTIFACTOR MODELS.ppt
ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY AND MULTIFACTOR MODELS.ppt
 
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT STRATEGIESPORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
 
Market efficiency
Market efficiencyMarket efficiency
Market efficiency
 
Financial Markets
Financial MarketsFinancial Markets
Financial Markets
 
Random walk theory
Random walk theoryRandom walk theory
Random walk theory
 
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
 

Viewers also liked

Investment behavior of individual investor
Investment behavior of individual investorInvestment behavior of individual investor
Investment behavior of individual investoramicable
 
A study on investment behavior of women investors at asit c mehta, ltd, hassan
A study on investment behavior of women investors at asit c mehta, ltd, hassanA study on investment behavior of women investors at asit c mehta, ltd, hassan
A study on investment behavior of women investors at asit c mehta, ltd, hassan
Projects Kart
 
Factors affecting individual investment behavior
Factors affecting individual investment behaviorFactors affecting individual investment behavior
Factors affecting individual investment behavior
Vicky Saini
 
social factor that effect the individual investor behavior
social factor that effect the individual investor behaviorsocial factor that effect the individual investor behavior
social factor that effect the individual investor behavior
Arfan Afzal
 
Dabhol power project
Dabhol power projectDabhol power project
Dabhol power project
Nilesh Dhotre
 
Investment Behavior Of Youth In India
Investment Behavior Of Youth In IndiaInvestment Behavior Of Youth In India
Investment Behavior Of Youth In India
Mayank Kumar
 
Dhabol PPT power debacle
Dhabol PPT power debacleDhabol PPT power debacle
Dhabol PPT power debacle
ALOK KUMAR
 
Behavior of Indian Investor: A Market Research
Behavior of Indian Investor: A Market ResearchBehavior of Indian Investor: A Market Research
Behavior of Indian Investor: A Market Research
Akash Jauhari
 
A case study presentation on Dabhol Power Plant
A case study presentation on Dabhol Power PlantA case study presentation on Dabhol Power Plant
A case study presentation on Dabhol Power Plant
Ashutosh Singh
 
Individual behaviour
Individual behaviourIndividual behaviour
Individual behaviourmishuarora
 
Internal Factors Affecting Business Environment . ppt
Internal Factors Affecting Business Environment . pptInternal Factors Affecting Business Environment . ppt
Internal Factors Affecting Business Environment . ppt
Harshil Shah
 
FINAL MMS PROJECT - INVESTOR'S BEHAVIOR TOWARDS INVESTMENT AVENUES ( MANGESH...
FINAL  MMS PROJECT - INVESTOR'S BEHAVIOR TOWARDS INVESTMENT AVENUES ( MANGESH...FINAL  MMS PROJECT - INVESTOR'S BEHAVIOR TOWARDS INVESTMENT AVENUES ( MANGESH...
FINAL MMS PROJECT - INVESTOR'S BEHAVIOR TOWARDS INVESTMENT AVENUES ( MANGESH...Mangesh Sonawane
 
INVESTMENT PATTERN OF SALARIED INDIVIDUALS
INVESTMENT PATTERN OF SALARIED INDIVIDUALSINVESTMENT PATTERN OF SALARIED INDIVIDUALS
INVESTMENT PATTERN OF SALARIED INDIVIDUALSRanjana Singh
 
Mfda 16feb12
Mfda 16feb12Mfda 16feb12
Mfda 16feb12
Edwin Weinstein
 
A study on investment pattern of investors on different products conducted at...
A study on investment pattern of investors on different products conducted at...A study on investment pattern of investors on different products conducted at...
A study on investment pattern of investors on different products conducted at...
Projects Kart
 
Questionnaire on Investment Preferences
Questionnaire on Investment PreferencesQuestionnaire on Investment Preferences
Questionnaire on Investment Preferences
Monika Kadam
 

Viewers also liked (16)

Investment behavior of individual investor
Investment behavior of individual investorInvestment behavior of individual investor
Investment behavior of individual investor
 
A study on investment behavior of women investors at asit c mehta, ltd, hassan
A study on investment behavior of women investors at asit c mehta, ltd, hassanA study on investment behavior of women investors at asit c mehta, ltd, hassan
A study on investment behavior of women investors at asit c mehta, ltd, hassan
 
Factors affecting individual investment behavior
Factors affecting individual investment behaviorFactors affecting individual investment behavior
Factors affecting individual investment behavior
 
social factor that effect the individual investor behavior
social factor that effect the individual investor behaviorsocial factor that effect the individual investor behavior
social factor that effect the individual investor behavior
 
Dabhol power project
Dabhol power projectDabhol power project
Dabhol power project
 
Investment Behavior Of Youth In India
Investment Behavior Of Youth In IndiaInvestment Behavior Of Youth In India
Investment Behavior Of Youth In India
 
Dhabol PPT power debacle
Dhabol PPT power debacleDhabol PPT power debacle
Dhabol PPT power debacle
 
Behavior of Indian Investor: A Market Research
Behavior of Indian Investor: A Market ResearchBehavior of Indian Investor: A Market Research
Behavior of Indian Investor: A Market Research
 
A case study presentation on Dabhol Power Plant
A case study presentation on Dabhol Power PlantA case study presentation on Dabhol Power Plant
A case study presentation on Dabhol Power Plant
 
Individual behaviour
Individual behaviourIndividual behaviour
Individual behaviour
 
Internal Factors Affecting Business Environment . ppt
Internal Factors Affecting Business Environment . pptInternal Factors Affecting Business Environment . ppt
Internal Factors Affecting Business Environment . ppt
 
FINAL MMS PROJECT - INVESTOR'S BEHAVIOR TOWARDS INVESTMENT AVENUES ( MANGESH...
FINAL  MMS PROJECT - INVESTOR'S BEHAVIOR TOWARDS INVESTMENT AVENUES ( MANGESH...FINAL  MMS PROJECT - INVESTOR'S BEHAVIOR TOWARDS INVESTMENT AVENUES ( MANGESH...
FINAL MMS PROJECT - INVESTOR'S BEHAVIOR TOWARDS INVESTMENT AVENUES ( MANGESH...
 
INVESTMENT PATTERN OF SALARIED INDIVIDUALS
INVESTMENT PATTERN OF SALARIED INDIVIDUALSINVESTMENT PATTERN OF SALARIED INDIVIDUALS
INVESTMENT PATTERN OF SALARIED INDIVIDUALS
 
Mfda 16feb12
Mfda 16feb12Mfda 16feb12
Mfda 16feb12
 
A study on investment pattern of investors on different products conducted at...
A study on investment pattern of investors on different products conducted at...A study on investment pattern of investors on different products conducted at...
A study on investment pattern of investors on different products conducted at...
 
Questionnaire on Investment Preferences
Questionnaire on Investment PreferencesQuestionnaire on Investment Preferences
Questionnaire on Investment Preferences
 

Similar to Investor Behavior

Portfolio Diversification
Portfolio DiversificationPortfolio Diversification
Portfolio DiversificationGreg Ferguson
 
Rational Investing
Rational InvestingRational Investing
Rational Investinglsutter
 
Investments For Life
Investments For LifeInvestments For Life
Investments For LifeMBritos
 
Rational Investing in Irrational TImes
Rational Investing in Irrational TImesRational Investing in Irrational TImes
Rational Investing in Irrational TImes
ssuarez
 
Is factor investing a bubble?
Is factor investing a bubble?Is factor investing a bubble?
Is factor investing a bubble?
London Business School
 
Ohio Valley Financial
Ohio Valley FinancialOhio Valley Financial
Ohio Valley FinancialDELSKL
 
Investing for a lifetime
Investing for a lifetimeInvesting for a lifetime
Investing for a lifetime
tubesock
 
Charts Commercial Investment Firms Never Want You to See
Charts Commercial Investment Firms Never Want You to SeeCharts Commercial Investment Firms Never Want You to See
Charts Commercial Investment Firms Never Want You to See
Liivo Leismann
 
Market Volitility
Market VolitilityMarket Volitility
Market Volitilityguest31bc
 
Market Volitility
Market VolitilityMarket Volitility
Market Volitility
guest31bc
 
Principles Of Investing
Principles Of InvestingPrinciples Of Investing
Principles Of InvestingGreg Ferguson
 
Bankhall Conference 2009 - M&G
Bankhall Conference 2009 - M&GBankhall Conference 2009 - M&G
Bankhall Conference 2009 - M&G
Bankhall
 
Weekly Commentary Sep26 2011
Weekly Commentary Sep26 2011Weekly Commentary Sep26 2011
Weekly Commentary Sep26 2011constanp
 
The Little Book of TCF
The Little Book of TCFThe Little Book of TCF
The Little Book of TCFTCFInvestment
 
Income Matching Using Individual Bonds
Income Matching Using Individual BondsIncome Matching Using Individual Bonds
Income Matching Using Individual Bonds
Brent Burns
 
Hyre Weekly Commentary
Hyre Weekly CommentaryHyre Weekly Commentary
Hyre Weekly Commentaryhyrejam
 
Investing Basics
Investing BasicsInvesting Basics
Investing Basicsrbhenderson
 

Similar to Investor Behavior (20)

Investor Behavior
Investor BehaviorInvestor Behavior
Investor Behavior
 
Portfolio Diversification
Portfolio DiversificationPortfolio Diversification
Portfolio Diversification
 
Rational Investing
Rational InvestingRational Investing
Rational Investing
 
Investments For Life
Investments For LifeInvestments For Life
Investments For Life
 
Rational Investing in Irrational TImes
Rational Investing in Irrational TImesRational Investing in Irrational TImes
Rational Investing in Irrational TImes
 
Is factor investing a bubble?
Is factor investing a bubble?Is factor investing a bubble?
Is factor investing a bubble?
 
Ohio Valley Financial
Ohio Valley FinancialOhio Valley Financial
Ohio Valley Financial
 
Investing for a lifetime
Investing for a lifetimeInvesting for a lifetime
Investing for a lifetime
 
Sim intro senate group
Sim intro   senate groupSim intro   senate group
Sim intro senate group
 
Charts Commercial Investment Firms Never Want You to See
Charts Commercial Investment Firms Never Want You to SeeCharts Commercial Investment Firms Never Want You to See
Charts Commercial Investment Firms Never Want You to See
 
Market Volitility
Market VolitilityMarket Volitility
Market Volitility
 
Market Volitility
Market VolitilityMarket Volitility
Market Volitility
 
Principles Of Investing
Principles Of InvestingPrinciples Of Investing
Principles Of Investing
 
Bankhall Conference 2009 - M&G
Bankhall Conference 2009 - M&GBankhall Conference 2009 - M&G
Bankhall Conference 2009 - M&G
 
Weekly Commentary Sep26 2011
Weekly Commentary Sep26 2011Weekly Commentary Sep26 2011
Weekly Commentary Sep26 2011
 
The Little Book of TCF
The Little Book of TCFThe Little Book of TCF
The Little Book of TCF
 
Little book
Little bookLittle book
Little book
 
Income Matching Using Individual Bonds
Income Matching Using Individual BondsIncome Matching Using Individual Bonds
Income Matching Using Individual Bonds
 
Hyre Weekly Commentary
Hyre Weekly CommentaryHyre Weekly Commentary
Hyre Weekly Commentary
 
Investing Basics
Investing BasicsInvesting Basics
Investing Basics
 

Investor Behavior

  • 1. INVESTOR BEHAVIOR Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials, © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
  • 2. Seeing Is Not Believing Which gray circle is bigger? Which gray bar is longer? Are the gray horizontal lines parallel? This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
  • 3. Rational Minds Can Act Irrationally They are the same size. They are the same size. The horizontal lines are parallel. This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. Overconfidence: False Perception Historical Performance of Emerging-Markets Stocks 2003 – 2008 80% Return 60 20 0 - 2 0 - 6 0 40 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 56.3% 26.0% 34.5% 32.6% 39.8% - 4 0 -53.2% Past performance is no guarantee of future results. • An investment cannot be made directly in an index. • This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
  • 8.
  • 9. Hindsight Bias: Technology and Real Estate Bubbles An Examination of Technology Stocks and Home Values $367 $201 $2,000 1,000 100 1992 1991 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 100 200 $300 1995 1999 2003 2007 Technology Bubble Real Estate Bubble* Past performance is no guarantee of future results. • An investment cannot be made directly in an index. • *Data available through November 2008. This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
  • 10.
  • 11. Short-Term Focus: Avoiding Potential Near-Term Losses Choice of Asset Allocation After Examining Different Return Distributions When shown a distribution of one-year returns , investors allocated 40% to stocks. When shown a distribution of 30-year returns , investors allocated 90% to stocks. • Stocks 40% • Bonds 60% 40% 60% 10% 90% Past performance is no guarantee of future results. • An investment cannot be made directly in an index. • Source: Shlomo Benartzi and Richard H. Thaler, “Risk Aversion or Myopia? Choices in Repeated Gambles and Retirement Investments,” June 1998. This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission. • Stocks 90% • Bonds 10%
  • 12. Short-Term Focus: Coping with Near-Term Fluctuations Probability of Losing Money in the Market 1989 – 2008 0 Daily 40 30 20 10 Monthly Quarterly Annually Past performance is no guarantee of future results. • An investment cannot be made directly in an index. • This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission. 50% Probability 46% 37% 30% 25%
  • 13.
  • 14. Regret: Action Versus Inaction Analyzing Various Types of Regret 10 9 $50k $44,410 Jan 07 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan 08 Mar May Jul Sep Investor A purchased shares of Company ABC. Investor A sold shares of Company ABC. Investor B considered purchasing shares of Company ABC, but did not. Nov Jan 09 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. • An investment cannot be made directly in an index. • This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
  • 15.
  • 16. Mental Accounting: Sum of the Parts Risk and Return Characteristics 1970 – 2008 Total Portfolio Return: 9.9% Risk: 11.6% Large Stocks Return: 9.5% Risk: 18.2% Small Stocks Return: 11.7% Risk: 23.8% Bonds Return: 9.3% Risk: 11.4% Cash Return: 5.8% Risk: 2.9% International Stocks Return: 9.7% Risk: 23.2% Past performance is no guarantee of future results. • An investment cannot be made directly in an index. • This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
  • 17.
  • 18. Hot-Hand Fallacy: Asset-Class Winners and Losers Annual Performance of Various Asset Classes 1994 – 2008 2007 11.6 IS 9.9 LTGB 4.7 TB 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 8.1% IS 21.5 LTGB 17.8 LTGB 20.7 IS 14.0 IS 26.9 IS 3.9 TB 20.3 IS 27.3 IS 5.9 TB 3.8 TB 1.6 TB 39.2 IS 7.8 LTGB 31.7 LTGB 6.4 IS 15.9 LTGB 13.1 LTGB 3.7 LTGB 1 1.6 IS 5.2 TB 5.3 TB 4.9 TB 4.7 TB - 15.7 IS 1.4 LTGB 8.5 LTGB 4.8 TB - 7.8 LTGB 5.6 TB - 0.9 LTGB 2.1 IS - 9.0 LTGB - 14.0 IS - 21.2 IS 1.0 TB 1.2 TB 3.0 TB 1.2 LTGB Highest Return Lowest Return 2008 25.9 LTGB 1.6 TB -43.1 IS Past performance is no guarantee of future results. • An investment cannot be made directly in an index. • This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission. -5.2 SS 29.8 SS 22.8 SS 60.7 SS 34.5 SS 17.6 SS 22.8 SS 18.4 SS 16.2 SS 3.1 SS - 3.6 SS - 13.3 SS 5.7 SS - 7.3 SS -36.7 SS 5.5 LS 37.6 LS 23.0 LS 33.4 LS 28.6 LS 21.0 LS 28.7 LS 10.9 LS 15.8 LS 1.3 LS - 9.1 LS - 11.9 LS 4.9 LS - 22.1 LS -37.0 LS Large Stocks (LS) Small Stocks (SS) International Stocks (IS) Long-Term Government Bonds (LTGB) Treasury Bills (TB)
  • 19. Hot-Hand Fallacy: Chasing Fund Performance Wealth Versus Cash Flows 1999 – 2008 • Growth of $10,000 • Cash Flows 10-year Fund Total Return = -0.50% 10-year Average Investor Return = -12.55% 0 5 10 15 20 25 $30k -400 0 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 $1,600m -200 200 2008 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. • An investment cannot be made directly in an index. • This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.