SlideShare a Scribd company logo
By Phineas Upham
 Why is it happening?
 Growth path of the U.S. slowing down since
1980
 Different than after the Great Depression
 In 1943, economy grew at fastest rate for any
advanced nation in history
 Good investors draw on similar situations in history
 Ben Bernanke
◦ knowledge of the Great Depression to guide US through
crisis
◦ implies analogy between Great Depression and this crisis
 How might we use history to understand the present?
◦ Three quotes:
1) Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it
2) Those who live in the past can never move forward
3) History doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes
 Choosing analogies, understanding the differences
 1999 technology bubble?
◦ Legacy of progress in telecommunications and
the internet
 Oil Crisis that led to 1982 crisis?
◦ Unhealthy nominal inflation rates
◦ Volker’s right response
 Is US like Japan in the 1980s?
◦ Transformed into exporter to U.S.
 The Great Depression?
◦ More like China today
 Francis Fukuyama's The End the History and the Last Man
 Samuel Huntington's The Clash of Civilizations
 Simplifying the arguments:
◦ Fukuyama:
1) political development of the world was over, democracy soon to be
global rule
2) democracies are stable and don't evolve
3) the world will soon reach a democratic equilibrium.
◦ Huntington:
1) A global struggle for power emerging due to globalization.
2) Islam, Asia, and the West in a life and death struggle for supremacy
 Both: a paradigm shift unlike the past
◦ analogies are rather pointless
 Which is right?
 Are we in a new age of history?
 It is important to know.
 Francis Fukuyama's The End the History and the Last Man
 Samuel Huntington's The Clash of Civilizations
 Simplifying the arguments:
◦ Fukuyama:
1) political development of the world was over, democracy soon to be
global rule
2) democracies are stable and don't evolve
3) the world will soon reach a democratic equilibrium.
◦ Huntington:
1) A global struggle for power emerging due to globalization.
2) Islam, Asia, and the West in a life and death struggle for supremacy
 Both: a paradigm shift unlike the past
◦ analogies are rather pointless
 Which is right?
 Are we in a new age of history?
 It is important to know.

More Related Content

What's hot

Cold war beginnings weshah and shefa
Cold war beginnings weshah and shefaCold war beginnings weshah and shefa
Cold war beginnings weshah and shefa
hwakelin
 
Apush review-key-concept-5.3-revised-2015-most-up-to-date-video
Apush review-key-concept-5.3-revised-2015-most-up-to-date-videoApush review-key-concept-5.3-revised-2015-most-up-to-date-video
Apush review-key-concept-5.3-revised-2015-most-up-to-date-video
Sandra Waters
 
Arap Spring and Two Perspectives
Arap Spring and Two PerspectivesArap Spring and Two Perspectives
Arap Spring and Two Perspectives
Volkan Işılay
 
The End of History? And the last man?
The End of History? And the last man?The End of History? And the last man?
The End of History? And the last man?
Francesco Piccinelli Casagrande
 
Wh post wwii keynote
Wh post wwii keynoteWh post wwii keynote
Wh post wwii keynote
Hugh_07
 
USH 7.1 notes
USH 7.1 notesUSH 7.1 notes
USH 7.1 notes
skorbar7
 
US History Ch. 21 Section 3 Notes
US History Ch. 21 Section 3 NotesUS History Ch. 21 Section 3 Notes
US History Ch. 21 Section 3 Notes
skorbar7
 
Ush ch. 24 section 3 notes
Ush ch. 24 section 3 notesUsh ch. 24 section 3 notes
Ush ch. 24 section 3 notes
skorbar7
 
Unit 5 section 2, lesson 1 an economic boom
Unit 5 section 2, lesson 1  an economic boomUnit 5 section 2, lesson 1  an economic boom
Unit 5 section 2, lesson 1 an economic boom
MrsSmithGHS
 
The Cold War Kennedy & Johnson Years
The Cold War Kennedy & Johnson YearsThe Cold War Kennedy & Johnson Years
The Cold War Kennedy & Johnson Years
wtidwell
 
Korean and Vietnam War
Korean and Vietnam WarKorean and Vietnam War
Korean and Vietnam War
SAhmed_
 
Apush review-key-concept-5.1-revised
Apush review-key-concept-5.1-revisedApush review-key-concept-5.1-revised
Apush review-key-concept-5.1-revised
Sandra Waters
 
China Vs. USA
China Vs. USAChina Vs. USA
China Vs. USA
Sajid Ali
 
Chapter 20 Roaring 20's
Chapter 20 Roaring 20'sChapter 20 Roaring 20's
Chapter 20 Roaring 20's
mswhitehistory
 
Lesson2 superpowersthroughtime
Lesson2 superpowersthroughtimeLesson2 superpowersthroughtime
Lesson2 superpowersthroughtime
Sarah Marks
 
Cold war lecture
Cold war lectureCold war lecture
Cold war lecture
thefanu
 
The End of Bipolarity
The End of BipolarityThe End of Bipolarity
The End of Bipolarity
HUMANITIES TUTOR
 
United States History Ch. 17 Section 4 Notes
United States History Ch. 17 Section 4 NotesUnited States History Ch. 17 Section 4 Notes
United States History Ch. 17 Section 4 Notes
skorbar7
 
The Iraq War
The Iraq WarThe Iraq War
The Iraq War
KDawg
 
2008vus10c depression hardships
2008vus10c depression hardships2008vus10c depression hardships
2008vus10c depression hardships
k0socha
 

What's hot (20)

Cold war beginnings weshah and shefa
Cold war beginnings weshah and shefaCold war beginnings weshah and shefa
Cold war beginnings weshah and shefa
 
Apush review-key-concept-5.3-revised-2015-most-up-to-date-video
Apush review-key-concept-5.3-revised-2015-most-up-to-date-videoApush review-key-concept-5.3-revised-2015-most-up-to-date-video
Apush review-key-concept-5.3-revised-2015-most-up-to-date-video
 
Arap Spring and Two Perspectives
Arap Spring and Two PerspectivesArap Spring and Two Perspectives
Arap Spring and Two Perspectives
 
The End of History? And the last man?
The End of History? And the last man?The End of History? And the last man?
The End of History? And the last man?
 
Wh post wwii keynote
Wh post wwii keynoteWh post wwii keynote
Wh post wwii keynote
 
USH 7.1 notes
USH 7.1 notesUSH 7.1 notes
USH 7.1 notes
 
US History Ch. 21 Section 3 Notes
US History Ch. 21 Section 3 NotesUS History Ch. 21 Section 3 Notes
US History Ch. 21 Section 3 Notes
 
Ush ch. 24 section 3 notes
Ush ch. 24 section 3 notesUsh ch. 24 section 3 notes
Ush ch. 24 section 3 notes
 
Unit 5 section 2, lesson 1 an economic boom
Unit 5 section 2, lesson 1  an economic boomUnit 5 section 2, lesson 1  an economic boom
Unit 5 section 2, lesson 1 an economic boom
 
The Cold War Kennedy & Johnson Years
The Cold War Kennedy & Johnson YearsThe Cold War Kennedy & Johnson Years
The Cold War Kennedy & Johnson Years
 
Korean and Vietnam War
Korean and Vietnam WarKorean and Vietnam War
Korean and Vietnam War
 
Apush review-key-concept-5.1-revised
Apush review-key-concept-5.1-revisedApush review-key-concept-5.1-revised
Apush review-key-concept-5.1-revised
 
China Vs. USA
China Vs. USAChina Vs. USA
China Vs. USA
 
Chapter 20 Roaring 20's
Chapter 20 Roaring 20'sChapter 20 Roaring 20's
Chapter 20 Roaring 20's
 
Lesson2 superpowersthroughtime
Lesson2 superpowersthroughtimeLesson2 superpowersthroughtime
Lesson2 superpowersthroughtime
 
Cold war lecture
Cold war lectureCold war lecture
Cold war lecture
 
The End of Bipolarity
The End of BipolarityThe End of Bipolarity
The End of Bipolarity
 
United States History Ch. 17 Section 4 Notes
United States History Ch. 17 Section 4 NotesUnited States History Ch. 17 Section 4 Notes
United States History Ch. 17 Section 4 Notes
 
The Iraq War
The Iraq WarThe Iraq War
The Iraq War
 
2008vus10c depression hardships
2008vus10c depression hardships2008vus10c depression hardships
2008vus10c depression hardships
 

Viewers also liked

Good Firms vs Bad Firm
Good Firms vs Bad FirmGood Firms vs Bad Firm
Good Firms vs Bad Firm
Phineas Upham
 
Chapter 1 notes presentation
Chapter 1 notes presentationChapter 1 notes presentation
Chapter 1 notes presentation
Catherine Latshaw
 
Menghitung kecepatan diajarkan qur'an
Menghitung kecepatan diajarkan qur'anMenghitung kecepatan diajarkan qur'an
Menghitung kecepatan diajarkan qur'an
akua308
 
My seasonal ritual
My seasonal ritualMy seasonal ritual
Beberapa rahasia al qur'an
Beberapa rahasia al qur'anBeberapa rahasia al qur'an
Beberapa rahasia al qur'an
akua308
 
Basics of Saving and Investing
Basics of Saving and InvestingBasics of Saving and Investing
Basics of Saving and Investing
INInvestWatch
 
Elder Investment Fraud and Financial Exploitation - Pocket Guide for Clinicians
Elder Investment Fraud and Financial Exploitation - Pocket Guide for CliniciansElder Investment Fraud and Financial Exploitation - Pocket Guide for Clinicians
Elder Investment Fraud and Financial Exploitation - Pocket Guide for Clinicians
INInvestWatch
 
Money Skills for Newlywed Couples
Money Skills for Newlywed CouplesMoney Skills for Newlywed Couples
Money Skills for Newlywed Couples
INInvestWatch
 
11 sifat pria yang disukai wanita
11 sifat pria yang disukai wanita11 sifat pria yang disukai wanita
11 sifat pria yang disukai wanitaakua308
 
Carta de un amigo
Carta de un amigoCarta de un amigo
Carta de un amigo
Eunicer Ramirez
 

Viewers also liked (10)

Good Firms vs Bad Firm
Good Firms vs Bad FirmGood Firms vs Bad Firm
Good Firms vs Bad Firm
 
Chapter 1 notes presentation
Chapter 1 notes presentationChapter 1 notes presentation
Chapter 1 notes presentation
 
Menghitung kecepatan diajarkan qur'an
Menghitung kecepatan diajarkan qur'anMenghitung kecepatan diajarkan qur'an
Menghitung kecepatan diajarkan qur'an
 
My seasonal ritual
My seasonal ritualMy seasonal ritual
My seasonal ritual
 
Beberapa rahasia al qur'an
Beberapa rahasia al qur'anBeberapa rahasia al qur'an
Beberapa rahasia al qur'an
 
Basics of Saving and Investing
Basics of Saving and InvestingBasics of Saving and Investing
Basics of Saving and Investing
 
Elder Investment Fraud and Financial Exploitation - Pocket Guide for Clinicians
Elder Investment Fraud and Financial Exploitation - Pocket Guide for CliniciansElder Investment Fraud and Financial Exploitation - Pocket Guide for Clinicians
Elder Investment Fraud and Financial Exploitation - Pocket Guide for Clinicians
 
Money Skills for Newlywed Couples
Money Skills for Newlywed CouplesMoney Skills for Newlywed Couples
Money Skills for Newlywed Couples
 
11 sifat pria yang disukai wanita
11 sifat pria yang disukai wanita11 sifat pria yang disukai wanita
11 sifat pria yang disukai wanita
 
Carta de un amigo
Carta de un amigoCarta de un amigo
Carta de un amigo
 

Similar to Investing and The Past

The Weird State of the State
The Weird State of the StateThe Weird State of the State
The Weird State of the State
Venkatesh Rao
 
Ch 20 roaring 20's 3
Ch 20 roaring 20's 3Ch 20 roaring 20's 3
Ch 20 roaring 20's 3
mswhitehistory
 
Domain 5 US History - Cold War to Modern Politics
Domain 5 US History - Cold War to Modern PoliticsDomain 5 US History - Cold War to Modern Politics
Domain 5 US History - Cold War to Modern Politics
phillipgrogers
 
Running head AMERICAN HISTORY .docx
Running head AMERICAN HISTORY                                  .docxRunning head AMERICAN HISTORY                                  .docx
Running head AMERICAN HISTORY .docx
joellemurphey
 
You shall know_them_by_their_works_and_words-free_republic-2000-16pgs-pol
You shall know_them_by_their_works_and_words-free_republic-2000-16pgs-polYou shall know_them_by_their_works_and_words-free_republic-2000-16pgs-pol
You shall know_them_by_their_works_and_words-free_republic-2000-16pgs-pol
RareBooksnRecords
 
Wirthumer - Game of United Nations
Wirthumer - Game of United NationsWirthumer - Game of United Nations
Wirthumer - Game of United Nations
Peter Wirthumer
 
Chapter 8 cold war (edsel jasmine sison's conflicted copy 2013 03-07)
Chapter 8 cold war (edsel jasmine sison's conflicted copy 2013 03-07)Chapter 8 cold war (edsel jasmine sison's conflicted copy 2013 03-07)
Chapter 8 cold war (edsel jasmine sison's conflicted copy 2013 03-07)
ellaboi
 
Assignment onePls rad the Reading 1 and answer the question in o.docx
Assignment onePls rad the Reading 1 and answer the question in o.docxAssignment onePls rad the Reading 1 and answer the question in o.docx
Assignment onePls rad the Reading 1 and answer the question in o.docx
standfordabbot
 
History Project (T.G.D.)
History Project (T.G.D.)History Project (T.G.D.)
History Project (T.G.D.)
Sadman Ridoy
 
Americanization
AmericanizationAmericanization
Americanization
vivek Thota
 
varouf11.pdf
varouf11.pdfvarouf11.pdf
varouf11.pdf
DionysisAssimacopoul1
 
BOOK: The End of the American Century and the Rise of the Rest
BOOK: The End of the American Century and the Rise of the RestBOOK: The End of the American Century and the Rise of the Rest
BOOK: The End of the American Century and the Rise of the Rest
abu dhiâ (ابو ضياء) al-tounissi
 
1312 18 1968, Liberalization, and the End of the Cold War
1312 18 1968, Liberalization, and the End of the Cold War1312 18 1968, Liberalization, and the End of the Cold War
1312 18 1968, Liberalization, and the End of the Cold War
Drew Burks
 
Okezie 2Okezie Emmanuel Professor GarrisonHistory- Second .docx
Okezie 2Okezie Emmanuel Professor GarrisonHistory- Second .docxOkezie 2Okezie Emmanuel Professor GarrisonHistory- Second .docx
Okezie 2Okezie Emmanuel Professor GarrisonHistory- Second .docx
cherishwinsland
 
C5 - Democracys Third Wave
C5 - Democracys Third WaveC5 - Democracys Third Wave
C5 - Democracys Third Wave
Fatin Nazihah Aziz
 
The failure of neoliberalism in the world
The failure of neoliberalism in the worldThe failure of neoliberalism in the world
The failure of neoliberalism in the world
Fernando Alcoforado
 
The Inventions Of The Late Nineteenth And Early Twentieth...
The Inventions Of The Late Nineteenth And Early Twentieth...The Inventions Of The Late Nineteenth And Early Twentieth...
The Inventions Of The Late Nineteenth And Early Twentieth...
Jennifer Lopez
 

Similar to Investing and The Past (17)

The Weird State of the State
The Weird State of the StateThe Weird State of the State
The Weird State of the State
 
Ch 20 roaring 20's 3
Ch 20 roaring 20's 3Ch 20 roaring 20's 3
Ch 20 roaring 20's 3
 
Domain 5 US History - Cold War to Modern Politics
Domain 5 US History - Cold War to Modern PoliticsDomain 5 US History - Cold War to Modern Politics
Domain 5 US History - Cold War to Modern Politics
 
Running head AMERICAN HISTORY .docx
Running head AMERICAN HISTORY                                  .docxRunning head AMERICAN HISTORY                                  .docx
Running head AMERICAN HISTORY .docx
 
You shall know_them_by_their_works_and_words-free_republic-2000-16pgs-pol
You shall know_them_by_their_works_and_words-free_republic-2000-16pgs-polYou shall know_them_by_their_works_and_words-free_republic-2000-16pgs-pol
You shall know_them_by_their_works_and_words-free_republic-2000-16pgs-pol
 
Wirthumer - Game of United Nations
Wirthumer - Game of United NationsWirthumer - Game of United Nations
Wirthumer - Game of United Nations
 
Chapter 8 cold war (edsel jasmine sison's conflicted copy 2013 03-07)
Chapter 8 cold war (edsel jasmine sison's conflicted copy 2013 03-07)Chapter 8 cold war (edsel jasmine sison's conflicted copy 2013 03-07)
Chapter 8 cold war (edsel jasmine sison's conflicted copy 2013 03-07)
 
Assignment onePls rad the Reading 1 and answer the question in o.docx
Assignment onePls rad the Reading 1 and answer the question in o.docxAssignment onePls rad the Reading 1 and answer the question in o.docx
Assignment onePls rad the Reading 1 and answer the question in o.docx
 
History Project (T.G.D.)
History Project (T.G.D.)History Project (T.G.D.)
History Project (T.G.D.)
 
Americanization
AmericanizationAmericanization
Americanization
 
varouf11.pdf
varouf11.pdfvarouf11.pdf
varouf11.pdf
 
BOOK: The End of the American Century and the Rise of the Rest
BOOK: The End of the American Century and the Rise of the RestBOOK: The End of the American Century and the Rise of the Rest
BOOK: The End of the American Century and the Rise of the Rest
 
1312 18 1968, Liberalization, and the End of the Cold War
1312 18 1968, Liberalization, and the End of the Cold War1312 18 1968, Liberalization, and the End of the Cold War
1312 18 1968, Liberalization, and the End of the Cold War
 
Okezie 2Okezie Emmanuel Professor GarrisonHistory- Second .docx
Okezie 2Okezie Emmanuel Professor GarrisonHistory- Second .docxOkezie 2Okezie Emmanuel Professor GarrisonHistory- Second .docx
Okezie 2Okezie Emmanuel Professor GarrisonHistory- Second .docx
 
C5 - Democracys Third Wave
C5 - Democracys Third WaveC5 - Democracys Third Wave
C5 - Democracys Third Wave
 
The failure of neoliberalism in the world
The failure of neoliberalism in the worldThe failure of neoliberalism in the world
The failure of neoliberalism in the world
 
The Inventions Of The Late Nineteenth And Early Twentieth...
The Inventions Of The Late Nineteenth And Early Twentieth...The Inventions Of The Late Nineteenth And Early Twentieth...
The Inventions Of The Late Nineteenth And Early Twentieth...
 

Recently uploaded

在线办理(latrobe毕业证书)拉筹伯大学毕业证Offer一模一样
在线办理(latrobe毕业证书)拉筹伯大学毕业证Offer一模一样在线办理(latrobe毕业证书)拉筹伯大学毕业证Offer一模一样
在线办理(latrobe毕业证书)拉筹伯大学毕业证Offer一模一样
ckn2izdm
 
Snigdha-Sreenath-Minor-v-Travancore-Devaswom-Board-WPCNO-39847-OF-2023-2024-L...
Snigdha-Sreenath-Minor-v-Travancore-Devaswom-Board-WPCNO-39847-OF-2023-2024-L...Snigdha-Sreenath-Minor-v-Travancore-Devaswom-Board-WPCNO-39847-OF-2023-2024-L...
Snigdha-Sreenath-Minor-v-Travancore-Devaswom-Board-WPCNO-39847-OF-2023-2024-L...
bhavenpr
 
MAGNA CARTA (minimum 40 characters required)
MAGNA CARTA (minimum 40 characters required)MAGNA CARTA (minimum 40 characters required)
MAGNA CARTA (minimum 40 characters required)
Filippo64
 
A draft Ukraine-Russia treaty from April 2022
A draft Ukraine-Russia treaty from April 2022A draft Ukraine-Russia treaty from April 2022
A draft Ukraine-Russia treaty from April 2022
dynamo777
 
Howard Fineman, Veteran Political Journalist and TV Pundit, Dies at 75
Howard Fineman, Veteran Political Journalist and TV Pundit, Dies at 75Howard Fineman, Veteran Political Journalist and TV Pundit, Dies at 75
Howard Fineman, Veteran Political Journalist and TV Pundit, Dies at 75
LUMINATIVE MEDIA/PROJECT COUNSEL MEDIA GROUP
 
13062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
13062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf13062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
13062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
FIRST INDIA
 
Essential Tools for Modern PR Business .pptx
Essential Tools for Modern PR Business .pptxEssential Tools for Modern PR Business .pptx
Essential Tools for Modern PR Business .pptx
Pragencyuk
 
Youngest c m in India- Pema Khandu Biography
Youngest c m in India- Pema Khandu BiographyYoungest c m in India- Pema Khandu Biography
Youngest c m in India- Pema Khandu Biography
VoterMood
 

Recently uploaded (8)

在线办理(latrobe毕业证书)拉筹伯大学毕业证Offer一模一样
在线办理(latrobe毕业证书)拉筹伯大学毕业证Offer一模一样在线办理(latrobe毕业证书)拉筹伯大学毕业证Offer一模一样
在线办理(latrobe毕业证书)拉筹伯大学毕业证Offer一模一样
 
Snigdha-Sreenath-Minor-v-Travancore-Devaswom-Board-WPCNO-39847-OF-2023-2024-L...
Snigdha-Sreenath-Minor-v-Travancore-Devaswom-Board-WPCNO-39847-OF-2023-2024-L...Snigdha-Sreenath-Minor-v-Travancore-Devaswom-Board-WPCNO-39847-OF-2023-2024-L...
Snigdha-Sreenath-Minor-v-Travancore-Devaswom-Board-WPCNO-39847-OF-2023-2024-L...
 
MAGNA CARTA (minimum 40 characters required)
MAGNA CARTA (minimum 40 characters required)MAGNA CARTA (minimum 40 characters required)
MAGNA CARTA (minimum 40 characters required)
 
A draft Ukraine-Russia treaty from April 2022
A draft Ukraine-Russia treaty from April 2022A draft Ukraine-Russia treaty from April 2022
A draft Ukraine-Russia treaty from April 2022
 
Howard Fineman, Veteran Political Journalist and TV Pundit, Dies at 75
Howard Fineman, Veteran Political Journalist and TV Pundit, Dies at 75Howard Fineman, Veteran Political Journalist and TV Pundit, Dies at 75
Howard Fineman, Veteran Political Journalist and TV Pundit, Dies at 75
 
13062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
13062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf13062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
13062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
 
Essential Tools for Modern PR Business .pptx
Essential Tools for Modern PR Business .pptxEssential Tools for Modern PR Business .pptx
Essential Tools for Modern PR Business .pptx
 
Youngest c m in India- Pema Khandu Biography
Youngest c m in India- Pema Khandu BiographyYoungest c m in India- Pema Khandu Biography
Youngest c m in India- Pema Khandu Biography
 

Investing and The Past

  • 2.  Why is it happening?  Growth path of the U.S. slowing down since 1980  Different than after the Great Depression  In 1943, economy grew at fastest rate for any advanced nation in history
  • 3.  Good investors draw on similar situations in history  Ben Bernanke ◦ knowledge of the Great Depression to guide US through crisis ◦ implies analogy between Great Depression and this crisis  How might we use history to understand the present? ◦ Three quotes: 1) Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it 2) Those who live in the past can never move forward 3) History doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes  Choosing analogies, understanding the differences
  • 4.  1999 technology bubble? ◦ Legacy of progress in telecommunications and the internet  Oil Crisis that led to 1982 crisis? ◦ Unhealthy nominal inflation rates ◦ Volker’s right response  Is US like Japan in the 1980s? ◦ Transformed into exporter to U.S.  The Great Depression? ◦ More like China today
  • 5.  Francis Fukuyama's The End the History and the Last Man  Samuel Huntington's The Clash of Civilizations  Simplifying the arguments: ◦ Fukuyama: 1) political development of the world was over, democracy soon to be global rule 2) democracies are stable and don't evolve 3) the world will soon reach a democratic equilibrium. ◦ Huntington: 1) A global struggle for power emerging due to globalization. 2) Islam, Asia, and the West in a life and death struggle for supremacy  Both: a paradigm shift unlike the past ◦ analogies are rather pointless  Which is right?  Are we in a new age of history?  It is important to know.
  • 6.  Francis Fukuyama's The End the History and the Last Man  Samuel Huntington's The Clash of Civilizations  Simplifying the arguments: ◦ Fukuyama: 1) political development of the world was over, democracy soon to be global rule 2) democracies are stable and don't evolve 3) the world will soon reach a democratic equilibrium. ◦ Huntington: 1) A global struggle for power emerging due to globalization. 2) Islam, Asia, and the West in a life and death struggle for supremacy  Both: a paradigm shift unlike the past ◦ analogies are rather pointless  Which is right?  Are we in a new age of history?  It is important to know.