This document discusses whether international organizations like the United Nations could take on the role of global stability traditionally filled by a hegemonic power. It first reviews the hegemonic stability theory and how the declining influence of the US has left a power vacuum. It then analyzes the multi-polar political landscape with no single dominant power. Finally, it evaluates the UN's ability to address global challenges and provide stability based on its effectiveness, principles of fairness and integrity, and capacity for "great swordsmanship" or strong leadership. While the UN has had some successes, the document questions whether it can truly fill the hegemon role in today's complex geopolitical environment.
Conspiracy For Global Control - The New American Magazinemiscott57
In this special report from THE NEW AMERICAN,
we examine not only the power behind
the throne, but its objectives and modus operandi.
We identify its ultimate objective as
the creation of a totalitarian one-world government,
oftentimes euphemistically referred
to by the Insiders themselves (not to
mention other internationalists) as a "new
world order." That objective, of course, is
not shared by the vast majority of the
American people, and for that very reason
the plotters must obfuscate their global designs.
We dare call this plotting by many of
the world's rich and powerful a conspiracy.
Sino-US Relations in the 21st Century: Is a Sino-US War Possible?Bright Mhango
This paper grapples with this question and concludes that war between the two can break out even tonight if certain conditions are met. However, for now, with China’s military not advanced enough, any war would have to be started by the US. And it so happens that the US actually has enough motives to engage China before it fully modernizes but cannot just do so from the blue. The US is thus trying to force China to give it the reason to justify a war to its increasingly war skeptical allies and domestic publics.
The reasons why the two cannot fight for now range from interdependence, the fact that Taiwan has not declared independence yet and the fact that Sino-Japan relations do not boil beyond the Yasukuni rhetoric. It is also due to the fact that China is powerless and relies on the US for many things such as access to lucrative markets and technology. The characters and personalities of the leaders of the two countries are also partly the reason there is not enough bad-blood to sound the war cry yet.
Conspiracy For Global Control - The New American Magazinemiscott57
In this special report from THE NEW AMERICAN,
we examine not only the power behind
the throne, but its objectives and modus operandi.
We identify its ultimate objective as
the creation of a totalitarian one-world government,
oftentimes euphemistically referred
to by the Insiders themselves (not to
mention other internationalists) as a "new
world order." That objective, of course, is
not shared by the vast majority of the
American people, and for that very reason
the plotters must obfuscate their global designs.
We dare call this plotting by many of
the world's rich and powerful a conspiracy.
Sino-US Relations in the 21st Century: Is a Sino-US War Possible?Bright Mhango
This paper grapples with this question and concludes that war between the two can break out even tonight if certain conditions are met. However, for now, with China’s military not advanced enough, any war would have to be started by the US. And it so happens that the US actually has enough motives to engage China before it fully modernizes but cannot just do so from the blue. The US is thus trying to force China to give it the reason to justify a war to its increasingly war skeptical allies and domestic publics.
The reasons why the two cannot fight for now range from interdependence, the fact that Taiwan has not declared independence yet and the fact that Sino-Japan relations do not boil beyond the Yasukuni rhetoric. It is also due to the fact that China is powerless and relies on the US for many things such as access to lucrative markets and technology. The characters and personalities of the leaders of the two countries are also partly the reason there is not enough bad-blood to sound the war cry yet.
Global Patriarchal Christian White Supremacy & the Road to the U.S. Capitol I...WarrenJBlumenfeld
The Stockholm-based International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance put the U.S. on a list of “backsliding democracies” in its November 2021 report. “The United States, the bastion of global democracy, fell victim to authoritarian tendencies itself,” the report found. Dr. Blumenfeld's presentation addresses some of the historical global roots of fascism and the social cleavages giving rise to anti-democratic leaders, which set the context for the January 6, 2021 Capitol Insurrection in the U.S.
What is regime theory?
What are international regimes?
What are different derivations of regime theory?
What are different critiques of regime theory?
What are the examples of international regimes?
Specific case study of international regimes?
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Regime
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
Global Patriarchal Christian White Supremacy & the Road to the U.S. Capitol I...WarrenJBlumenfeld
The Stockholm-based International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance put the U.S. on a list of “backsliding democracies” in its November 2021 report. “The United States, the bastion of global democracy, fell victim to authoritarian tendencies itself,” the report found. Dr. Blumenfeld's presentation addresses some of the historical global roots of fascism and the social cleavages giving rise to anti-democratic leaders, which set the context for the January 6, 2021 Capitol Insurrection in the U.S.
What is regime theory?
What are international regimes?
What are different derivations of regime theory?
What are different critiques of regime theory?
What are the examples of international regimes?
Specific case study of international regimes?
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Regime
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
Chapter 9
International Relations
Chapter Objectives
1. Explain the international relations theory of realism including its basic assumptions.
2. Discuss the liberal theory of international relations along with its different types.
3. Define constructivism and its central principles.
4. Explore feminist international relations theory and its recommendations for change.
5. Examine causes of war and peace in the international arena.
When Twitter was first introduced in 2006, its founders probably could not have imagined how people would potentially use it. Over the past twelve years, Twitter has expanded to more than 330 million active monthly users throughout the world. Governments have even gotten into the act: Twitter Government (@TwitterGov) even highlights how governments and politicians throughout the world use Twitter. Politicians and elected officials quickly took to Twitter, using it as a means to communicate with voters directly. Former president Barack Obama even originated a Twitter handle for presidents (@POTUS) in 2013.
The current US president, Donald Trump, has utilized Twitter to a far greater extent than his predecessor, although he does so from his own personal account (@realDonaldTrump) rather than the official @POTUS handle. In interviews, he has argued that communicating via Twitter allows him to get his message to voters without the filter of the media with the implicit argument that the media does not do a faithful and true job in reporting his actions. As such, President Trump’s tweets often come directly from the president himself with no staff filtering or discussion. One area where the president’s tweets have been particularly influential is in the US relationship with North Korea.
As of October 2018, President Trump has tweeted about North Korea more than 150 times since taking office. And while the tweets may not appear on the official @POTUS account or come in a statement on White House letterhead, they have played an integral role in American-North Korean relations. For example, on August 11, 2017, the president tweeted this:
Military solutions are now fully in place, locked and loaded, should North Korea act unwisely. Hopefully Kim Jong Un will find another path!
At a mere twenty-three words, the president stated what could have easily been seen as a military threat against North Korea that could have led to direct conflict. Realizing the potential implications of tweets like this from the president, US officials at the February 2018 Munich Security Conference reportedly told their counterparts not to pay attention to what the president is tweeting.1 However, in March 2018, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un, apparently under pressure because of the president’s rhetoric, broached the idea of a summit between the two leaders. What followed was a historic meeting between the two leaders in June 2018 in Singapore as well as enhanced relations between North and South Korea.
Unlike the other subfields of political scie.
Chapter 9
International Relations
Chapter Objectives
1. Explain the international relations theory of realism including its basic assumptions.
2. Discuss the liberal theory of international relations along with its different types.
3. Define constructivism and its central principles.
4. Explore feminist international relations theory and its recommendations for change.
5. Examine causes of war and peace in the international arena.
When Twitter was first introduced in 2006, its founders probably could not have imagined how people would potentially use it. Over the past twelve years, Twitter has expanded to more than 330 million active monthly users throughout the world. Governments have even gotten into the act: Twitter Government (@TwitterGov) even highlights how governments and politicians throughout the world use Twitter. Politicians and elected officials quickly took to Twitter, using it as a means to communicate with voters directly. Former president Barack Obama even originated a Twitter handle for presidents (@POTUS) in 2013.
The current US president, Donald Trump, has utilized Twitter to a far greater extent than his predecessor, although he does so from his own personal account (@realDonaldTrump) rather than the official @POTUS handle. In interviews, he has argued that communicating via Twitter allows him to get his message to voters without the filter of the media with the implicit argument that the media does not do a faithful and true job in reporting his actions. As such, President Trump’s tweets often come directly from the president himself with no staff filtering or discussion. One area where the president’s tweets have been particularly influential is in the US relationship with North Korea.
As of October 2018, President Trump has tweeted about North Korea more than 150 times since taking office. And while the tweets may not appear on the official @POTUS account or come in a statement on White House letterhead, they have played an integral role in American-North Korean relations. For example, on August 11, 2017, the president tweeted this:
Military solutions are now fully in place, locked and loaded, should North Korea act unwisely. Hopefully Kim Jong Un will find another path!
At a mere twenty-three words, the president stated what could have easily been seen as a military threat against North Korea that could have led to direct conflict. Realizing the potential implications of tweets like this from the president, US officials at the February 2018 Munich Security Conference reportedly told their counterparts not to pay attention to what the president is tweeting.1 However, in March 2018, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un, apparently under pressure because of the president’s rhetoric, broached the idea of a summit between the two leaders. What followed was a historic meeting between the two leaders in June 2018 in Singapore as well as enhanced relations between North and South Korea.
Unlike the other subfields of political scie ...
Chaos in international relations demands a global governmentFernando Alcoforado
Humanity must constitute a world government to face its great challenges in the 21st Century which consist of: 1) Economic and financial chain crises; 2) Revolutions and social counterrevolution around the globe; 3) Cascade Wars; 4) World overpopulation; 5) Deadly pandemic; 6) Extreme climate changes; 7) organized crime; and, 8) Threats from space, whose global actions to neutralize them are impossible to be carried out by national states alone and by current international institutions. The risk that this world government could be led by the same great military and economic powers is real. It is preferable, however, to take this risk than to do nothing. We must take this risk by working and betting on the possibility that a truly democratic government can be constituted on a global scale in the future.
How to build a peace scenario and cooperation between nations and peoplesFernando Alcoforado
How to build a scenario of peace and cooperation between nations and peoples around the world? This is an old challenge and thought by many philosophers as is the case of Immanuel Kant when approaching this theme in his work Perpetual peace. In 1795, Kant released this booklet that had great success with the educated public of his time. It was a project aimed at establishing a perpetual peace among the European peoples, and then spreading it throughout the world. It is an Enlightenment manifesto in favor of permanent understanding between men. Kant's primary goal was to eliminate the war that was always seen by him as something that distorted mankind's efforts toward a decent future for human beings. How to achieve this goal?
Superpower War of the 21st Century - Declining America and Fading Capitalism ...Economic Policy Dialogue
It is yet a first quarter of the 21st century and the wheel looks turning away from not only the US as a superpower, but also from the centuries’ old capitalism as a dominant system. All signs are signalling that China is ascending as a superpower and communism is winning over capitalism. This commentary examines how and what has led this to happen.
We come to a pivotal point in the course. The rise of European powe.docxnealwaters20034
We come to a pivotal point in the course. The rise of European power and its dominance over the rest of the world was not preordained. Indeed, in 1500, Europe was a cultural and economic backwater in comparison to the Arab, Indian, and Chinese civilizations at the time. When Vasco da Gama arrived in Calicut, India, in 1498, he was repudiated by the traders because he had nothing that they found of value. By the time of the end of the 19th century, Europe ruled the world and its institutions--representative democracy, market capitalism, and human rights--were beginning to be established virtually everywhere. There were no powers to contest European domination.
And then, everything fell apart. Since they controlled the rest of the world, the European powers turned on each other. There were no other places to divide and conquer, so they decided to divide and conquer each other. They practiced the balance of power and imperialism against each other. World War I began in 1914 and ended in 1918. There was a period of time when the fighting stopped from 1918 to 1939, but it was hardly a time of peace. Totalitarian regimes arose--communism in the Soviet Union in 1917 and Fascism in Hungary in 1920. The economic system fell apart in what we call the Great Depression. And there were massive human rights violations: by Japan in China, by the Italians in Ethiopia, and by the Germans in the Holocaust. Then World War II began in 1939 and ended in 1945. The period of time from 1914-1945 should be called the Great European War. When it ended, all the European Empires began to disintegrate.
Most Americans do not fully appreciate how total the collapse of Europe was. As a matter of fact, most Europeans were also unaware of how seriously depleted Europe had become. But the US emerged from the Great European War the strongest power on the planet. Unlike 1918, when the US refused to join the League of Nations, in 1945 the US fully embraced the role of a Great Power. It was a role that it had not actively sought and the President at the time, Franklin Roosevelt, knew that the US had to embrace it but the American people were not fully prepared.
On paper, it looked like a no-brainer. Every other country had been decimated. The US had by far the largest economy on the planet, it was fully battle-tested, and it possessed atomic bombs, the most powerful weapons ever invented. But the US was not going to become a Great Power in the European mold. The US had itself become an independent state after fighting a war to defeat the strongest colonial power at the time, Great Britain. Its founding mythology was that of an anti-imperial power. How was the US going to replace Europe without becoming a colonial power?
Perhaps the world did not need a Great Power to regulate the international system. But the turmoil of the Interwar Period suggested to Roosevelt that the international system was not capable of self-regulation. Without a "cop on the beat".
(please scroll all the way to bottom to see info covered in u3-4.docxraju957290
(please scroll all the way to bottom to see info covered in u3-4 below)
Over the course of the class, you will be retrieving and evaluating current event articles (in the last 5 years); making connections between the units we are currently studying and today. You will be responsible for finding an online article from a reputable news source. For example: Time.com, USA Today, The
New York Times
, etc.
See the attachment for specific details and grading criteria for the
Current Events Journal Assignment for Units 3-4
In Unit 3, we will be focusing on change and reform brought about as a result of the rapid social and economic changes of industrialization and urbanization. While the U.S. looked great from an outside perspective, with its rich flaunting their wealth and industry booming, it was riddled with exploitation of the people and political corruption, thus earning the name the Gilded Age. This brought in a sense of moral obligation and led to a reform movement that swept across the nation, with organization developing locally and nationally. This period of reform is known as the Progressive Era.
It was a time to expose the underlining errors of the U.S. society and to make changes for the good of the people. The Progressive Era would address a variety of issues, including factory and living conditions, agriculture reform, child labor, women’s rights, political reform, conservation, and other social concerns. While not perfect in its initial steps of change, this period will pave the way for continued social justice in our nation’s history.
Objectives:
Discuss the impact of political corruption on the U.S. government and evaluate the effectiveness of political reform.
Identify the leading reformers of the Progressive Era and evaluate the effectiveness of the reform movements.
Describe the problems facing farmers in the late 19th century and evaluate the effectiveness of the reform movement by the Populists and other farmers’ organizations and alliances.
Compare the Progressivism domestic and foreign policies of Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, and William Howard Taft.
Unit 4 Imperialism and WWI
In Unit 4, we will focus on the role of the United States in World affairs. In the late 19th century, the United States not only sought to redefine itself as American, but also to establish its place in the global political arena. Foreign policies paralleled those of many European nations, with a focus on imperialism and preserving foreign interests and markets, specifically in the Western hemisphere. It will be the United States positioning in the Spanish-American war that marks the beginning of its imperial power, with future expansions and political involvement in Latin America and the Pacific Ocean.
At the turn of the century, the United States will feel the long-term effect of its imperialistic decisions. Being recognized as a World leader, involvement in international affairs now spanned beyond the Western Hemispher.
A Pragmatic Grand Strategy towards ChinaKaran Khosla
Daniel Guelen
E-mail: daniel.guelen@columbia.edu
Published May 4, 2020
Abstract
China’s rise brings various issues to the international stage. Terms such as the Thucydides Trap and Trade Wars have become common language and many fear for conflict between the United States and China. Especially in the 21st century, the relationship between the US and China will define the world. However, this paper argues that China does not pose a threat to the United States and the international order as the economic, military, and political circumstances do not facilitate such a great power tension. By directly analyzing the relationship between the US and China in these three areas, two policy recommendations can be drawn. This paper brings forth a dual grand strategy for the US to improve and support its domestic position to compete globally and present a more accessible alternative to lead internationally by building a more inclusive coalition and deterring some of China’s aggressions in South East Asia. As the world becomes more multipolar, the ability to balance power, engage developing nations, and build alliances will prove to be critical to any strategy.
Keywords: China; United States; foreign policy; great power tension; international security; Thucydides Trap; international order; trade wars; counterhegemony; South East Asia.
1. Game of United Nations – an
Update to the Hegemon stability theory
Peter Wirthumer
Abstract
The days of the United States as global hegemon are numbered. The hegemonic stability theory predicts
chaos in an international system without a strong leader. In the multi-polar world of today, it is unlikely
that any single country or region gains enough influence, power and resources to become hegemonic.
International Organizations, spearheaded by the United Nations, may be able to take this position and
provide global stability. In theory, determinants for stability like global peace and security, human rights
as well as economic development are among the core issues. In reality, several bumps along the road
arise, such as states failing to live up to their commitments, structural issues from the very beginning and
bad luck while trying to do well. This essay discusses the decline of the United States as hegemon, the
hegemonic stability theory, the multi-polar political landscape and the ability of the United Nations to
become hegemonic.
2. Game of United Nations – an Update to the Hegemon stability theory www.pdoubleu.org
Peter Wirthumer 2
Game of United Nations – an Update to the Hegemon stability theory
Introduction
The days as world hegemon for the United States are counted. To use the popular metaphor from Game
of Thrones, “the Iron Throne has lost its influence over the Seven Kingdoms”. The inability to pay its bills
combined with a federal government shutdown are not the characteristics of a world leader. The capital
markets no longer treat US treasuries as risk-free, investors have sold billions of dollars of short-term
treasuriesi
and rating agencies have put the US on their negative watch listii
. Several countries around
the world, especially Asian countries, seek to decrease dependency on the greenbackiii
. The political two-
party system has led to several deadlock situations through a division of the houses and extremely
polarized party lines, making big reforms often difficultiv
. Putin’s proposition on how to deal with Syria’s
arsenal of chemical weapons was accepted by the Security Council, rejecting Obama’s aggressive war
intentionsv
. Recent events in Egypt have shown that democracy is not the most suitable form of
governance for every countryvi
. Mediation efforts by numerous US diplomats to find a solution to the
Israel - Palestine conflict have been in vainvii
. Germany’s chancellor Angela Merkel refused to support the
US-led aggressions in Libya in 2007viii
. Earlier problems of the United States doctrines were the dot.com
bubble or far earlier the Oil Shock of the 70s and the end of the Bretton Woods system. The list could be
continued much further. All these events are symptoms of the fact that the United States is not the
hegemon anymore it once was.
The question arises, what will the future look like? While this question can be approached from various
sides, I will use the theory of hegemon stability by Robert Keohane, Kindleberger and othersix
. It
hypothesizes that a world hegemon provides stability to the world and therefore leads to favorable
outcomes for all states in the international system – which need not be global. In contrast, in a time
without a hegemon, the international system would crumble. Similarly the fantasy universe of Game of
Thrones crumbled after the respected King Robert Baratheon died. All kingdoms respected him and
therefore it would be valid to call him a hegemon, providing stability to the world at hand. His successor
Joffrey is not nearly as respected, especially as his very right to be king is doubted. Tensions arise, wars
start, and economies collapse. Applying this concept to our situation today, the prospects of the future
would look dim.
However, the world looks quite different than in the last quarter of the 20th
century, when this theory
was established. The bipolar world from after the Second World War is no more. The United States
emerged as the sole superpower, a position which is crumbling. As the king is dying, several “kingdoms”
strive for world leadership. I hereby think of the past hegemon – the United States – followed by a region
of developed countries – the European Union – and further major players like China and regions like
Latin America or Southeast Asia. One could also include Russia, India and Sub-Saharan Africa into the
equation; the latter are of course long-term candidates. Note that all of them have different
characteristics, just like the Seven Kingdoms on the continent of Westeros in Game of Thrones. For
example, Robb Stark unites several Lords, Tywin Lannister has incredible amounts of wealth, Stannis the
strongest navy and Daenerys is the mother of dragons. In reality, the United States and the countries of
the European Union are still the most prosperous countries, without whose consumer demand most
other economies would fall like an apple from a tree. China has the largest population and therefore
3. Game of United Nations – an Update to the Hegemon stability theory www.pdoubleu.org
Peter Wirthumer 3
huge man-power potential. Russia and Sub-Saharan Africa have enormous untapped resources, yet to be
extracted and utilized.
However, the question should not be who will win battle after battle and finally sit on the Iron Throne.
Instead one should ask the following questions instead: Who can violent battles be avoided and who
should become king?
After arguably the most devastating years the Earth has ever seen up to 1945, visionary leaders from
around the globe came together to prevent such years from ever happening again. These efforts
happened before, for example with the creation of the “League of Nations” after the First World War.
After the Second World War, the United Nations and further International Organizations were created as
worldwide, supranational institutions. In theory, leaders of all nations come together to discuss pressing
and visionary issues at these institutions, in order to shape a better future.
Are these organizations, spearheaded by the “United Nations” (UN) able to address the major challenges
of our time? On the one hand, the United Nations are highly effective in improving poverty rates,
assuring access to basic education and coordinating peacekeeping missions. On the other hand, on big
issues like climate change, Iran’s nuclear policy, and the Arab spring, the UN does not have such a good
record. The latter is about to become an Arab Winter. And when winter is coming, it can be too late for
the kingdoms to unite.
This essay is split into five sections. Following this introduction, I will give a brief explanation of the
hegemon theory by Krasner. This also includes a brief historical overview of the recent past evaluating
how the US was the hegemon and at what points crack appeared in the hull. Third I will present a bird’s
eye view on the world’s political landscape. Fourth, I will evaluate the role of International Organizations,
in particular the United Nations. Finally, a conclusion will be provided.
The hegemonic stability theory
The world economy can prosper and grow, if there is a hegemon providing stability to the international
system. This is the main hypothesis of the hegemon stability theory. At the time of the creation of this
theory, the United States was in full ascendancy as hegemon. This theory, evaluated by Michael C. Webb
and Stephen D. Krasnerx
, Barry Eichengreenxi
and others, applies to more than a century of history, and
perhaps even farther into the past. Early episodes are for example the Persian, Greek and the Roman
Empire, the Chinese Ming Dynasty or Genghis Khan and his Pax Mongoliaxii
. During these episodes, most
of the known world was dominated by a hegemon and prosperity, culture and wealth arose. In contrast,
during the medieval times – also known as the Dark Ages – Europe was in even worse shape than
Westeros after the death of Robert Baratheon. When the United Kingdom became the world hegemon in
the 19th
century, stability arose all over the world, trade surged and prosperity emerged in most
countries – unfortunately to the detriment of others. After the First World War, the former hegemon,
the United Kingdom, was weakened while the world still looked up to its leadership, its economic power
and its currency. All three expectations, among others, proved wrong and the world fell into what is now
known as the “Great Depression”. This economic disaster led to the Second World War, where two
strong forces emerged. For approximately four decades, it was the United States of America against the
Soviet Union. Almost everything was different in these opposing countries – from human rights to
4. Game of United Nations – an Update to the Hegemon stability theory www.pdoubleu.org
Peter Wirthumer 4
economic ideals and political structures. In 1989 and the following years, the United States emerged as
winner from the Cold War and proved itself as world leader and true hegemon. Under its leadership,
world stability arose, trade surged and many countries around the world profited from the seemingly
endless biggest consumer market.
As explained above, recent events show that this role of the United States is about to end. Numerous
political, economic, and social events and developments undermine the hegemonic position. For the
sake of brevity, I will only mention one example of each. The political doctrine, that democracy is the
best form of governance and suitable for any country, regardless of state of development, social
structures or economic power distribution, has been proven wrong several times. The latest devastating
episode occurred in Egypt, where the Arab spring is about to turn into an Arab winter as mentioned
abovexiii
. Economically, the lessons taught by the Washington consensus as well as the financial
liberalization of the early 21st
century have proven devastating. Several emerging economies adopting
these policies fell into devastating crisisxiv
. The world as a whole experienced the most severe recession
since the Great Depression and currently, there is no light at the end of the tunnel to be seen. On the
social sphere, even Fukuyama repealed his own thesis that “The American Dream is the End of the
History” in 1999 after just 10 yearsxv
. Webb and Krasnerx
also mention the importance of military and
technological leadership as important for the world hegemon. Granted, in these areas, the United States
is still the undisputed leader. In military expenditures, the United States is second only to United Arab
Emirates and spent $2,141 per capita in 2009 and has the highest share of military expenditure to GDP
with 4.4% in any developed country, according to the SIPRI Military Expenditure Databasexvi
. In 2010,
American companies were second in patent applications behind Japan, but have still twice as much as
China, which is third. In total, the United States had 50% more patents in force than even Japan in 2008,
who ranks secondxvii
. Its researchers receive the most Nobel prizes, almost three times as many as the
United Kingdom, which is ranked secondxviii
. However, as the budget gets cut like hay in the fall, nobody
knows how the situation will look like in a decade or two.
It should be noted that, as any political theory, the hegemon stability theory is not without critic. Most
notable is probable the article of Duncan Snidal “The limits of hegemonic stability theory” in 1985, where
he argues that “the range of the theory is limited to very special conditions”xix
. A thorough discussion
about the theory’s limitations is however beyond the scope of this paper and the interested reader may
be referred to the extensive literature.
The world’s political landscape – a multipolar world
There are several kingdoms striving for the throne, yet some are much more powerful than others.
Looking at three very strong houses, the political power distributions could be understood more easily.
The Lannisters hold on to their fading power as past hegemon, like the United States does. Robb Stark
united various lords, like the European Union united its countries. Uniting was the first step, but it is
even harder – like for Robb – trying to hold them together. Across the narrow sea, which can be taken as
a rather wide Pacific, the Chinese Dragon grows and an ancient dynasty is about to regain its position as
the most advanced civilization, like the Targaryen dynasty led by Daenerys and her dragons. The world’s
largest country in geographic size – the Russian Federation – obviously cannot be forgotten either. As
mentioned above, other kingdoms are likely to play important roles as well in the future. At the time of
5. Game of United Nations – an Update to the Hegemon stability theory www.pdoubleu.org
Peter Wirthumer 5
writing, however, Sub-Saharan Africa for example is more an arm wrestling table for the United States
against China than a potential world leader.
This arm wrestling table is also very insightful in illustrating differences between the two opposites.
Candidate number one, in the red-white striped shirt with many white stars on blue, aims to gain
influence under the banner of official development aid. Various conditions like human rights, democracy
and trade access are connected to this form of aid. Trade access for the first candidate implies trade
restrictions for the second, the Candidate with the red shirt and one big and four small yellow stars.
However, China’s investment principles are very simple, without disguised demands for political
influence. It comes down to “I give you money, you give me what I want” and sometimes even “don’t
worry about how to do it; I bring my own labor” as in several resource-extraction and infrastructure
projects. A discussion about the advantages and disadvantages of each form of investment is beyond the
scope of this paper. However, it led to skyrocketing Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in Sub-Saharan
African in the last decadexx
.
A recent arm-wrestling also occurred between the United States and its historic rival – the Russian
Federation. For about 2 years, the world looked at the Syrian uprising without taking action. In late
August 2013, the use of chemical weapons of Assad’s regime was confirmed by an UN Reportxxi
. As such
weapons are forbidden by international treaties, the United States felt obliged to intervene. Considering
an unsatisfactory war record in the Middle East, an empty wallet and angry voters, the President waved
the flag and cried for battle, but waited for Congress to carry it. Congress was obviously not going to
support it but didn’t get the chance to vote on it anyway. Putin seeing a chance of limiting US
imperialism, proposed not to escalate the situation but to seize Assad’s chemical weapons stockpile. The
Resolution 2118 (2013), as proposed by the Russian Federation, was accepted by the Security Council on
September 27th
2013xxii
. Russia won this arm wrestling contest and the president of the United States had
to go home with a black eye but his face was saved – he spoke in favor of human rights and “fair
warfare” as expected from the American president.
Sidelined for all of this is an observer, who sometimes tries to intervene, the European Union. On the
one hand this common market had the largest accumulated gross domestic production in 2012xxiii
. On
the other hand, it has too many troubles at home to stretch for the Throne. The people at the wrestling
table have more than enough troubles as well, but as they are one country, they are, for the most part,
able to take care of such troubles (or ignore them temporarily) and look outward at the same time.
National problems and opposing views of countries within the European Union make effective foreign
policy difficult and limit the resources attributed to issues in the rest of the World. Nevertheless, the
European Union can play an important role in being a referee to the wrestling competition and counter-
balance if any competitor gets the upper hand.
As can be seen, the kingdoms have very different abilities and interests while stretching for the Iron
Throne. None is currently in the shape for absolute dominance, nor does the international community
officially aspire to have such a leader.
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Peter Wirthumer 6
A new type of king – International Organizations
After the Second World War, world leaders united to avoid a repetition of the prior years. International
organizations (IOs) have been founded. The most important nowadays are the World Trade
Organization, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, just to name three. The overarching
institution, however, is the United Nations, who could be consequently considered the potential king.
Basic principles in all IOs are similar. While the role of each single one is highly important and often also
controversial, I will focus on the United Nations for sake of simplicity and the ultimate purpose of the
analysis.
At these organizations, every nation has a seat. Here the democratic principle “One nation, one vote”
really applies. Whether it’s the world’s largest economy, the world’s most populous country or a small
island state in the Pacific with 20,000 inhabitants – their voices are equally heard.
The question arises whether the UN has what is necessary to become the king. To be a good king, the
most important factors according to one article are great swordsmanship in battle, fairness and
truthfulnessxxiv
. Let’s look at these medieval leadership traits into modern days. Great swordsmanship in
battle stands for strength, power and ability to deal with all kinds of problems. Fairness is one of the
basic principles of democracy as well as human rights. Truthfulness withstands the test of time; however
I want to extend this concept to integrity and especially the principle: “Walk what you talk”.
To analyze these three characteristics, I will split the following section into three parts. First, to evaluate
the UN’s strength and ability to deal with different problems, I will cover issues discussed in the United
Nations, in particular climate change. A brief history of negotiations and their development will be
presented. Second, to pay tribute to fairness and its implications for democracy within the UN, I will shed
some light on interesting alliances like the European Union or the Alliance of Small Island States. The
latter is a group of negligible countries in GDP and most measures, but highly relevant as voting group.
Third, attributable to fairness as well as truthfulness and integrity, I will mention institutional problems
that occurred in the almost 70-year old concept, in particular the Veto powers in the Security Council. At
the end of the section, I will conclude the prior analysis and evaluate whether the United Nations has the
potential to be a good king providing global stability to the international system.
The king’s council picks up any relevant issue with respect to the subsidiary principle, regardless of the
specific topic. A list of 30 Global Issues can be found onlinexxv
, the three most popular probably being
Climate Change, Peace and Security and Human Rights. For illustration of how the UN works and – how it
both succeeded and failed in some sense – I will look at the history of Climate Changexxvi
. The first major
success occurred at the third United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in
Kyoto, Japan. The reduction of greenhouse gases, emission trading and clean development mechanism
were core subjects of the Kyoto Protocol. Most countries signed up; only one failed to ratify. The
protocol to be ratified by the US Congress, sending a clear sign to the world that even the President’s
word to the International Community couldn’t be relied on. In 2001, the protocol was officially rejected
by the Bush administration. Other important countries, like Canadaxxvii
and Russiaxxviii
exited the Kyoto
Protocol in 2012. Over 100 developing countries, including China and India were exempted from the very
beginning. In summary, countries issuing accumulated more than 70%, of the world’s greenhouse gases,
according to 2008 numbers by EPAxxix
, are either exempt from or not part anymore of the Kyoto Protocol.
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Peter Wirthumer 7
Most of the relevant countries still committed to a reduction, are the European Union and like-minded
countries like Norway and Switzerland.
Overall, the United Nations were able to unite all major countries on this important topic; however it
failed to make them hold on to the achievement of the same. It should be noted that Climate Change is a
quite young topic and the negotiations are extraordinary difficult, as many strong and influential
interests oppose the implications of for example the Kyoto protocol. In contrast, by mid-2012, three out
of the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have been met: The reduction of poverty and slums
and improvement of access to clean water. Further goals, specifically the fight against malaria and
tuberculosis, primary education as well as maternal health are within reachxxx
. The UN is on track to
establish clear Post-2015 Development goals for the next medium term. The swordsmanship is not as
bad as it once looked.
A strong player in the world, already mentioned a few times, is the European Union. Their members
alone represent 27 votes and therefore 14% of the total. Their economic weight is even more important
as they provide 38% of the general UN budget, about 40% of the peacekeeping budget and even 56% of
Global Development aidxxxi
. A similar voting alliance, yet with a very different structure, needs and
economic power is the cooperation “Alliance of Small Island States” (AOSIS). At the time of the writing,
the Alliance unites 37 countries, which are members of the UN, and therefore has almost one fifth of the
UN’s total voting power. This gives it considerable power on their issues and also leverage on diplomatic
relations and bilateral or small multilateral agreements.
Giving power to the weak is for sure a principle of fairness. Equally democracy and human rights are
highly respected, cherished and lived within the UN. For the sake of brevity, a further discussion will be
omitted.
Also most of these countries, which are members of AOSIS, were not even sovereign states at the time of
the creation of the United Nations. The original 51 countries represented mainly developed countries
and their former colonies, most becoming independent only a few years before (like India)xxxii
. Obviously
the world leaders of that time had an advantage in crafting the constitution, which can be considered
unfair. This advantage is most obvious in the position of the five veto powers of the United Nations
Security Council: China, France, Russia, United Kingdom and the United States. This is problematic for
three reasons. First it cripples the democratic principle of the United Nations. Second, deadlocks can
easily arise as recently happened in the Syria case. If the General Assembly would not have convened
around the same time, things could have become much more problematic. Third, the nations with the
veto powers don’t even represent the strongest countries in the world. Strength is of course a vague
term; for the sake of simplicity I will compare gross domestic production (GDP). According to UN data
from 2011, the five strongest economies are the United States, China, Japan, Germany and France in this
orderxxxiii
. As you can see, two of them are not veto powers in the UN. When comparing gross domestic
production by purchasing power parity (GDP (PPP)), France gets even replaced by India. The veto powers
United Kingdom and Russia rank 6 and 8 in nominal GDP and 8 and 6 in GDP (PPP), respectively. The
question arises, why should these countries still have these privileges? Pushing it further, why should
anybody have the privilege of being a veto power in arguably one of the world’s most important panels,
8. Game of United Nations – an Update to the Hegemon stability theory www.pdoubleu.org
Peter Wirthumer 8
in an organization that preaches democracy? Shouldn’t the world leader follow the principle “Walk what
you talk!” in all its actions and especially its voting principles and the very charter?
Another case where the UN fails to “walk what it talks” recently occurred in relation to the peacekeeping
mission in Haiti and the emergence of Cholera. The United Nations refuse to be held accountable, even
though its own reports have indicated that the Cholera was brought by peacekeeping staff after the
tsunami in 2004. This is especially critical as accountability is a major topic in the Post-2015 Development
Goals. If the UN fails to find a meaningful solution which satisfies all affected parties, its own credibility
and therefore integrity might become damaged in this regardxxxiv
.
To summarize, the United Nations is a highly democratic institution where almost all sovereign countries
(except some mostly non-recognized states) have one vote. Comparing its characteristics to the traits of
a good king, a good fit emerges. Great swordsmanship is shown in many battles, yet it might lose in
others. Overall, fairness and truthfulness are cherished by the UN, its institutions and its actions. Yet
several problems arise, one example that stems from the very beginning and another from a failure that
was committed while doing well. Both these issues can – and most likely will be – resolved. In conclusion,
the UN possesses the traits for a being a good king.
Conclusion
The United States has lost its status as hegemon of the world. Applying the hegemonic stability theory by
Krasner, the danger of world instability arises. A discussion of the question who could be the future
hegemon followed. When looking at the political world landscape, a mountainous area can be seen, yet
without a single peak. In our multipolar world nowadays, it is unlikely that one single country will
become hegemon. We discussed the question whether International Organizations, led by the United
Nations, can put on the crown and become king and therefore world hegemon.
The United Nations was analyzed and has the qualities fit to become a good king. Even though there will
be bumps along the way, overall it has what it takes to live up to its destiny. Thanks to its
swordsmanship, its fairness and integrity, the United Nations can take the position of being the next
hegemon.
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