This study analyzed ice jams and flooding in the Grand River watershed in northern Ohio using the HEC-RAS hydraulic model. The objectives were to understand how ice jams contribute to flooding and create flood maps of different return periods. Field data and aerial imagery were used to develop the HEC-RAS model. The model showed that a 500-year flood would inundate homes, bridges and parks. Historical data analysis found that ice jams were most common during neutral ENSO phases. Increased winter temperatures may exacerbate ice jam flooding by accelerating snow and ice melt. The results can help identify at-risk areas and improve flood warning systems.

1. B) Ice jam study in the Grand River
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Investigating Flooding Pattern Using Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) in the City of Painesville, Ohio
Niraj Lamichhane1, Suresh Sharma2
1Graduate Student, Civil/Environmental Engineering Program, Youngstown State University, One University Plaza, Youngstown, OH 44555; (330)-259-6019, Email: nlamichhane@student.ysu.edu, 2Assistant Professor, Civil/Environmental Engineering Program, Youngstown State University, One University Plaza, Youngstown, OH 44555; (330)941-1741, Email: ssharma06@ysu.edu
Study area
This study was conducted on a Grand River watershed of the Northern Ohio (Figure 1). The total watershed area of the
outlet of the Grand River is approximately 705 mi2. Major portions of the watershed is covered with forest (44%), water
bodies and wetlands (14.7%) and developed/urban land (10.3%).
Methodology
The methodology is briefly sketched in section A.
Objectives
1. To understand ice jam and its contribution to probable future floods.
2. To prepare different year return period flooding maps in order to warn the local people about the potential flood
hazards.
Abstract
The majority of the Rivers in the northern belt of Ohio undergo freezing in the winter season with a possible consequence of an ice jam formation. As a result, sudden flooding can be experienced even though the anticipated precipitation is not significant. Since river ice jams can generate extreme flood events, detailed monitoring of ice jam record is
needed for the prediction of ice jam break up in order to improve the conventional hydrologic forecast. In this research, Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) has been developed using high resolution datasets, LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) and field verified cross section. The hydraulic model, HEC-RAS has been
used to predict the downstream flooding pattern and prepare flood inundation maps based on upstream gage height. The potential locations for additional gage stations have been investigated to ensure downstream flood forecast a few hours in advance and provide sufficient evacuation time. In addition, flood maps of various return periods have been
prepared. Our preliminary analysis indicates that 500 year return period flood is destructive.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Discharge(cfs)
Date
Observed discharge
Simulated discharge
a) Streamflow calibration at the USGS gage station 04212100
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Discharge(cfs)
Date
Observed discharge
Simulated discharge
b) Streamflow validation at the USGS gage station 04212100
Figure 8. Ice jam upstream of Fairport Harbor in
2014
Figure 7: Historical ice jam locations at various sections along the Grand River, Ohio
Result and Discussions
 Flood from Harpersfield (upstream) takes approximately 4-6 hours (depending upon the nature of the flood) to reach the City
of Painesville.
 Hydraulic analysis of the Grand River was conducted using HEC-RAS (Figure 2). Cross sections of the Grand River to be used
in HEC-RAS was verified from the field survey (Figure 3).
 The model was calibrated and validated (Figure 4).
 Floods of different return period are listed in Table 1 and the ice jam locations are listed in Table 2. Our preliminary
investigation concludes that the Vrooman bridge, Lakeland Freeway bridge and High Street bridge along the section of the
Grand River might be flooded (during 500 year return period)
 Flood plain delineation of 500 year return period using HEC-RAS and HEC-GeoRAS (Figure 6) shows followings:
• around 12 houses have a high chance of flooding near the junction of the Big Creek and Grand River;
• nearly 25 houses and 4 apartments will be flooded in Steel Ave and Grand River Ave ;
• some of the areas Kiwanis Recreation Park and Casement Golf Course just downstream of Main St. bridge in the City of
Painesville and Hidden Valley Park in Madison will be flooded;
• nearly 11 apartments and some houses near the banks of the Grand River in Huntington road and Hidden Harbor of
Painesville including some other harbors are under the risk of flooding;
 The historical climatic study shows that the formation of ice jam is more often in Neutral period of ENSO phases while
showing the least chances in La Niña period (Figure 10).
 Melting of ice in the late winter due to increase in mean air temperature has a significant contribution to winter flooding.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Discharge(cfs)
Date
Observed discharge
Simulated discharge
c) Streamflow validation at the USGS gage station 04212100
Figure 1. A map showing study area (the Grand River) spreading out to four counties of Ohio. ( Lake, Ashtabula, Geauga and Trumbull)
Figure 4. Calibration (a), and validation (b & c) of the HEC-RAS
Figure 3. Field verification of cross sections
Table 1. Flood discharge in the Grand River and it’s tributaries
S.N. Locations Dates of occurrence Description
1. 0.1 mile upstream of Main Street Bridge, Painesville 2014
2. Upstream section of Grand River near E Walnut Ave.
1981, 1982, 1984, 1988, 2003,
2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011
Most of them were breakup jams
and some were releasing jams
3. Near Main Street Bridge, Painesville 1978
4. Just upstream of Vrooman Bridge, Vrooman Rd 2014 Blockage of Vrooman road
5.
Bank St., Painesville, OH
2014 -
5. Water St, Fairport Harbor, OH 2014 -
6.
Near 4842 Bailey Rd, Madison, OH
- -
Table 2. Location and periods of ice jams in the Grand River
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
La Niña El Niño Neutral
AccumulatedFreezingDegreeDays(0F)
Figure 9. Box plot showing variation of AFDD during different
ENSO phases as an evidence of climatic variability in ice jam
Conclusion
 Many houses, bridges and people near the banks of the Grand River will be under the risk of 500 year return period flood.
 Early flood warning systems should be developed to provide sufficient warnings for the protection of lives and properties.
Figure 6. Grand River flood plain delineation using HEC-RAS and HEC-GeoRAS showing the flood plain near the City of
Painesville (a), and at the junction of the Mill Creek and the Grand River (b)
10 year flood
50 year flood
100 year flood
500 year flood
a) Details of flood plain near the City of Painesville area
City of
Painesville
Fairport
Harbor
Lake Erie
b) Details of flood plain near the junction of the Mill Creek and
Grand River
Lake Erie
Painesville
Big Creek
S.N Stream Name
Flood discharge (cfs)
10 years 50 years 100 years 500 years
1. Grand River upstream at Harpersfield 8,870 11,200 12,300 14,400
2. Mill Creek at the junction of Grand River 1,420 2,030 2,300 2,890
3. Grand River at the junction of Mill Creek 10,290 13,230 14,600 17,290
4. Painecreek at the junction of Grand River 2,120 3,080 3,500 4,460
5. Grand River at the junction of Painecreek 12,410 16,310 18,100 21,750
6. Big Creek at the junction of Grand River 3,390 4,940 5,620 7,170
7. Grand River at the junction of Big Creek 15,800 21,250 23,720 28,920
Figure 5. High flood level in different bridges from the HEC-RAS simulation
b) Water Level at Lakeland Freeway
bridge during 500 year flood
c) Water Level at High Street bridge
during 500 year flood
a) Water Level at Vrooman bridge
during 500 year flood
Acknowledgement
Authors would like to acknowledge for the grant support provided by the Ohio Sea Grant for this research.
A) Hydraulic analysis and flood plain delineation
Figure 2. Hydraulic model of the Grand River in HEC-RAS
b) XYZ perspective plot of Grand River
a) Plan view of Grand River (From Harpersfield to Fairport Harbor)
c) Longitudinal profile of the Grand River
Note: AFDD is an Accumulated Freezing Degree Days,
which is calculated using the summation of Freezing
Degree Days (FDD); that is, FDD = 32-Ta, where Ta is
mean temperature of air.
Figure 10. Relationship between AFDD, precipitation and discharge showing an increase in winter flooding due to
both precipitation and melting of ice (caused by increase in mean air temperature)
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