David Evans, profile picture
Uploaded byDavid Evans
PPTX, PDF15,298 views

Inventing the Future

This document appears to be a series of slides from a class on the history and future of technology. It discusses many important innovations from the past few decades like the invention of the internet, development of the World Wide Web, creation of search engines and e-commerce sites, growth of social media, and advances in areas like GPS, mobile devices, and digital assistants. Each slide focuses on a different technology, company, or concept, and provides brief details and dates to give context to the technological progression being outlined.

Embed presentation

Downloaded 11 times
Alan Kay’s Dynabook (1972)
This Week in cs4414 Today: What will happen in the next 15 years Tomorrow (4:59pm Wednesday): team project submission due link, well-written description if you want to demo Thursday if you want extension to submit final project Thursday’s class: Project Demos Friday (11:49pm): Individual Submissions Due includes evaluation of your project teammates 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 1
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Neils Bohr Det er svært at spå, især om fremtiden. Robert Storm Petersen 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 2
It is difficult to predict, especially about the future 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 3
Past and Future 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 4
AT&T’s “You Will” (1993-4) 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 5
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 6
3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 7
Prediction #1 Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft combined will contribute less valuable technological innovation to society in 19902030 than Bell Labs did in 1940-1980. transistor (1947) 3 December 2013 information theory, cryptography (1945) University of Virginia cs4414 cellular telephony (1947) 8
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 9
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Firstcarried your medical history in your wallet Release 2003 Agents conducted business in a language Created by Ahti Heinla , Priit Education you don’t understand rd learned special things from faraway places year had an assistant who lived in your Kasesalu, and Jaan Tallinn (3 had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer at University car with a television fixed your of Tartu in 1994) 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 10
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 11
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 12
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption Berners-Lee Sir Tim borrowed a book from thousands of First WWW Prototype at CERN 1990miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 13
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet Marc Andreesen conducted business in a language Student at U. Illinois Education you don’t understand NCSA Mosaic released in 1993 learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer David Filo and Jerry Yang fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 Students at Stanford University of Virginia cs4414 Yahoo 1994 14
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 15
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 16
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history inGPS (10 sats): used in 1990-1 Gulf War your wallet conducted First Garmin: $2500business in a language Education you don’t understand GPS (24 learned special things from faraway places sats) Operational 1995lived in your had an assistant who had a classmate who is thousands of1996: Dual-Use Directive miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 17
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 18
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 19
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television amazon.com opens: July 1995 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 20
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 21
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 22
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 23
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 24
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 25
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach August 2011 Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 26
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach August 2011 Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 27
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 28
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 29
$100,000,000 Cost to sequence human genome Moore’s Law prediction (halve every 18 months) $10,000,000 Predicting steady technology improvement is easy! $1,000,000 $100,000 $10,000 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 30 Feb 2013 Aug 2012 Feb 2012 Aug 2011 Feb 2011 Aug 2010 Feb 2010 Aug 2009 Feb 2009 Aug 2008 Feb 2008 Aug 2007 Feb 2007 Aug 2006 Feb 2006 Aug 2005 Feb 2005 Aug 2004 Feb 2004 Aug 2003 Feb 2003 Aug 2002 Feb 2002 Aug 2001 $1,000
$100,000,000 Cost to sequence human genome Moore’s Law prediction (halve every 18 months) $10,000,000 $1,000,000 $100,000 $10,000 University of Virginia cs4414 31 Feb 2013 Aug 2012 Feb 2012 Aug 2011 Feb 2011 Aug 2010 Feb 2010 Aug 2009 Feb 2009 Aug 2008 Feb 2008 Aug 2007 Feb 2007 Aug 2006 Feb 2006 Aug 2005 Feb 2005 Aug 2004 Feb 2004 Aug 2003 Feb 2003 Aug 2002 Aug 2001 3 December 2013 Feb 2002 Ion torrent Personal Genome Machine $1,000
Human Genome Sequencing Using Unchained Base Reads on Self-Assembling DNA Nanoarrays. Radoje Drmanac, Andrew B. Sparks, Matthew J. Callow, Aaron L. Halpern, Norman L. Burns, Bahram G. Kermani, Paolo Carnevali, Igor Nazarenko, Geoffrey B. Nilsen, George Yeung, Fredrik Dahl, Andres Fernandez, Bryan Staker, Krishna P. Pant, Jonathan Baccash, Adam P. Borcherding, Anushka Brownley, Ryan Cedeno, Linsu Chen, Dan Chernikoff, Alex Cheung, Razvan Chirita, Benjamin Curson, Jessica C. Ebert, Coleen R. Hacker, Robert Hartlage, Brian Hauser, Steve Huang, Yuan Jiang, Vitali Karpinchyk, Mark Koenig, Calvin Kong, Tom Landers, Catherine Le, Jia Liu, Celeste E. McBride, Matt Morenzoni, Robert E. Morey, Karl Mutch, Helena Perazich, Kimberly Perry, Brock A. Peters, Joe Peterson, Charit L. Pethiyagoda, Kaliprasad Pothuraju, Claudia Richter, Abraham M. Rosenbaum, Shaunak Roy, Jay Shafto, Uladzislau Sharanhovich, Karen W. Shannon, Conrad G. Sheppy, Michel Sun, Joseph V. Thakuria, Anne Tran, Dylan Vu, Alexander Wait Zaranek, Xiaodi Wu, Snezana Drmanac, Arnold R. Oliphant, William C. Banyai, Bruce Martin, Dennis G. Ballinger, George M. Church, Clifford A. Reid. Science, January 2010. 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 32
3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 33
Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 34
Prediction #2 Within 15 years, at least 95% of the world’s adult population will have done everything on the “You Will” list (or something comparable but much better). Note: this implies end to world poverty! 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 35
3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 36
1948 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 37
1994 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 38
3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 39
3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 40
“Today, of Americans officially designated as ‘poor’, 99 percent have electricity, running water, flush toilets, and a refrigerator; 95 percent have a television, 88 percent a telephone, 71 percent a car and 70 percent air conditioning. Cornelius Vanderbilt had none of these.” Matt Ridley 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 41
Pace of Progress 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 42
Year of Invention -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 0 Rank on List 10 20 30 40 50 S ::= NP V NP ::= N and NP Cooking (-400 000) Language (-300 000) 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 Wheel (~4000 BC) 43
Last Millennium 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 44
Last Millennium 1000 1100 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3 December 2013 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 #1: Printing Press University of Virginia cs4414 45
Last Millennium 1000 1100 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3 December 2013 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 #1: Printing Press 1700 1800 1900 #2: Electricity Nikola Tesla University of Virginia cs4414 46
Last Millennium 1000 1100 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3 December 2013 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 #2: Electricity #1: Printing Press #4: Semiconductor #9: Internet #16: Personal Computer University of Virginia cs4414 47
Prediction #3 Over the next 15 years, there will be inventions that change the world at least as much as the semiconductor, personal computer, and Internet did over the last 30. Drone delivery? 3D fabrication? Printing food? 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 AI? 48
Science’s Endless Golden Age Neil deGrasse Tyson
“If you’re going to use your computer to simulate some phenomenon in the universe, then it only becomes interesting if you change the scale of that phenomenon by at least a factor of 10. … For a 3D simulation, an increase by a factor of 10 in each of the three dimensions increases your volume by a factor of 1000.” What is the asymptotic running time for simulating the universe? 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 50
Astrophysics and Moore’s Law 3) (n • Simulating universe is • Moore’s “law”: computing power doubles every 18 months • Dr. Tyson: to understand something new about the universe, need to scale by 10x How long does it take to know twice as much about the universe? 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 51
3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 52
3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 53
15 years 1000x computing power  double understanding re’s an ritten rule in ophysics: your puter lation must before you Neil deGrasse Tyson Will there be any mystery left in the Universe when you die? 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 54
Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former. Albert Einstein 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 55
The Endless Golden Age • Golden Age – period in which knowledge/quality of something improves exponentially • At any point in history, half of what is known about astrophysics was discovered in the previous 15 years! – Moore’s law today, but other advances previously (and tomorrow): telescopes, photocopiers, clocks, agriculture, drone Accumulating 4% per year => doubling every 15 years! delivery, personal assistant, etc. 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 56
Log scale: straight line = exponential curve! 3 December 2013 “Any physical quantity that’s growing exponentially predicts a disaster, you simply can’t go beyond certain major limits.” Gordon Moore (2007) Koomey’s Law:Assessing Trends in the Electrical Efficiency of Computation Over Time University of Virginia cs4414 57
An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century-it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate)... Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to the Singularity — technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and non-biological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of2013 3 December light. University of Virginia cs4414 Ray Kurzweil 58
3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 59
Sustainability is a very depressing goal for a scientist/engineer – we should be striving for progress! 1. share what we have with the rest of the world (by lowering costs) 2. invent new things that improve the quality, interconnectedness, and length of human life 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 60
Golden Ages or Golden Catastrophes? 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 61
Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus, Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 62
The great and unlooked for discoveries that have taken place of late years in natural philosophy, the increasing diffusion of general knowledge from the extension of the art of printing, the ardent and unshackled spirit of inquiry that prevails throughout the lettered and even unlettered world, … have all concurred to lead many able men into the opinion that we were touching on a period big with the most important changes, changes that would in some measure be decisive of the future fate of mankind.” 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 63
I think I may fairly make two postulata. –First, that food is necessary to the existence of man. –Secondly, that the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain…. Assuming then my postulata, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio. Food per person = (n) / (kn) approaches 0 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 64
Malthus’ Fallacy? 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 65
Malthus’ Fallacy He forgot how he started: The great and unlooked for discoveries that have taken place of late years in natural philosophy, the increasing diffusion of general knowledge from the extension of the art of printing, the ardent and unshackled spirit of inquiry that prevails throughout the lettered and even unlettered world… 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 66
Golden Age of Food Production Agriculture is an “endless golden age” field: production from the same land increases as ~ (1.02n) Increasing knowledge of farming, weather forecasting, plant domestication, genetic engineering, pest repellants, distribution channels, preservatives, etc. 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 67
Growing Corn 1906: < 1,000 pounds per acre 2006: 10,000 pounds per acre Michael Pollan’s The Omnivore’s Dilemma 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 68
Note: Log axis! Corn Yield http://www.agbioforum.org/v2n1/v2n1a10-ruttan.htm 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 69
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=corn+yield+china+vs.+us 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 70
Green Revolution Norman Borlaug (1914-2009) 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 71
“At a time when doom-sayers were hopping around saying everyone was going to starve, Norman was working. He moved to Mexico and lived among the people there until he figured out how to improve the output of the farmers. So that saved a million lives. Then he packed up his family and moved to India, where in spite of a war with Pakistan, he managed to introduce new wheat strains that quadrupled their food output. So that saved another million. You get it? But he wasn't done. He did the same thing with a new rice in China. He's doing the same thing in Africa -- as much of Africa as he's allowed to visit. When he won the Nobel Prize in 1970, they said he had saved a billion people. That's BILLION! BUH! That's Carl Sagan BILLION with a "B"! And most of them were a different race from him. Norman is the greatest human being, and you probably never heard of him.” Penn Jillette (Penn & Teller) 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 72
Malthus was wrong about #2 Also Advances in science (birth control), medicine (higher life expectancy), education, and societal and political changes (e.g., regulation in China) have reduced k (it is < 1 in many countries now!) 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 73
Upcoming Malthusian Catastrophes? http://ourfiniteworld.com/2012/03/12/world-energy-consumption-since-1820-in-charts/ 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 74
3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 75
“Cornucopian View” Few resources are really finite All scientific things have endless golden ages Knowledge accumulates Knowledge makes it easier to acquire more (We hope) Human ingenuity and economics and politics will continue solve problems before they become catastrophes No one will sell the last gallon of gas for $3 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 76
Prediction #4 The vast majority of jobs people have today will be automated, and the fraction of the world’s population who can produce something of economic value (i.e., that cannot be done better and cheaper by machines) will plummet. Automated Mall Cop 3 December 2013 Automated Warehouse University of Virginia cs4414 77
Will the elimination of tedious human work cause mass riots or mass rejoicing? Luddites, 1812 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 78
Charles Vest’s slide idea! America will always do the right thing but only after exhausting all other options. Winston Churchill 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 79
Charge The best way to predict the future is to invent it. — Alan Kay Project submissions by 4:59pm tomorrow! 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 80

More Related Content

PPTX
Travelling CONVERSATION ESL.
byAndy Sanchez Betancourt
 
PPTX
Holidays and travel
byMayra Aldiyarova
 
PPTX
English conversation class 3 travel
byAndré Figundio
 
PPTX
Holiday travel-conversation-topics-dialogs
byMaria Cecilia Puccio
 
PPTX
Ny final meeting lunchtime
byCraig Osborne
 
PPT
Travelad
byBlanca Araujo
 
PPTX
Presentation on jazzy in america-draft
byadrinerose
 
PPTX
Invent the Future (Operating Systems in 2029)
byDavid Evans
 
Travelling CONVERSATION ESL.
byAndy Sanchez Betancourt
 
Holidays and travel
byMayra Aldiyarova
 
English conversation class 3 travel
byAndré Figundio
 
Holiday travel-conversation-topics-dialogs
byMaria Cecilia Puccio
 
Ny final meeting lunchtime
byCraig Osborne
 
Travelad
byBlanca Araujo
 
Presentation on jazzy in america-draft
byadrinerose
 
Invent the Future (Operating Systems in 2029)
byDavid Evans
 

Viewers also liked

PPTX
Class 1: Introduction - What is an Operating System?
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
System Calls
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
The Internet
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
SSL Failing, Sharing, and Scheduling
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Scheduling in Linux and Web Servers
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Storage
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Kernel-Level Programming: Entering Ring Naught
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Flash! (Modern File Systems)
byDavid Evans
 
PDF
Class 1: What is an Operating System?
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Smarter Scheduling (Priorities, Preemptive Priority Scheduling, Lottery and S...
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
The First Billion Android Activations
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Once Upon a Process
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
First Ride on Rust
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Putting a Fork in Fork (Linux Process and Memory Management)
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Multi-Tasking Map (MapReduce, Tasks in Rust)
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Scheduling
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
What the &~#@&lt;!? (Pointers in Rust)
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Gash Has No Privileges
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Making a Process (Virtualizing Memory)
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Managing Memory
byDavid Evans
 
Class 1: Introduction - What is an Operating System?
byDavid Evans
 
System Calls
byDavid Evans
 
The Internet
byDavid Evans
 
SSL Failing, Sharing, and Scheduling
byDavid Evans
 
Scheduling in Linux and Web Servers
byDavid Evans
 
Storage
byDavid Evans
 
Kernel-Level Programming: Entering Ring Naught
byDavid Evans
 
Flash! (Modern File Systems)
byDavid Evans
 
Class 1: What is an Operating System?
byDavid Evans
 
Smarter Scheduling (Priorities, Preemptive Priority Scheduling, Lottery and S...
byDavid Evans
 
The First Billion Android Activations
byDavid Evans
 
Once Upon a Process
byDavid Evans
 
First Ride on Rust
byDavid Evans
 
Putting a Fork in Fork (Linux Process and Memory Management)
byDavid Evans
 
Multi-Tasking Map (MapReduce, Tasks in Rust)
byDavid Evans
 
Scheduling
byDavid Evans
 
What the &~#@&lt;!? (Pointers in Rust)
byDavid Evans
 
Gash Has No Privileges
byDavid Evans
 
Making a Process (Virtualizing Memory)
byDavid Evans
 
Managing Memory
byDavid Evans
 

Similar to Inventing the Future

PPTX
Ict timeline
byMichelle Harris
 
PPTX
Baase_Henry_GoF5e_Ch1.pptx Gift of Fire Computer Ethics
bydordunureubenmawukok
 
PPT
Shannon Tyau Timeline
byShannon
 
PPT
Tasks Design Project 2009
byyanethcabrera
 
PPTX
Empowerment Technology.pptx
byKarloFredoAngway
 
PPT
Chapter1.ppt
byMrMutiullahJamil
 
PPTX
Designing information for online users. Numbers. Profiles. Techniques.
byRosário Durão
 
DOC
8. bài đọc đục lỗ
byHườngg Thu
 
DOCX
Did you know fact sheet
bymandyjo123
 
PPT
Chapter_1_Gift_of_Fire(6).ppt
bydaniloalbay1
 
PPT
DidYouKnow
bymcolizzi
 
PPT
Did You Know
byLuis Saga
 
PPSX
Detweiler,com303 50,final project
byselmik
 
PPTX
Using storytelling to explore the rich context of user experience (Agile 2010)
byWhitney Quesenbery and Kevin Brooks
 
PDF
GA Tech FutureMedia Fest
byCarlos Dominguez
 
RTF
VCF Comments, April 27
byLO*OP Center, Inc.
 
PPTX
Elaine Jones Comm 303 Presentation
bycardsgirl80
 
PPT
Shift Happens
byXerxies
 
PPT
Shift happens
byWilliam Hatcher
 
PPT
Reading (things from the present/past) - Imperatives
byCintia Santos
 
Ict timeline
byMichelle Harris
 
Baase_Henry_GoF5e_Ch1.pptx Gift of Fire Computer Ethics
bydordunureubenmawukok
 
Shannon Tyau Timeline
byShannon
 
Tasks Design Project 2009
byyanethcabrera
 
Empowerment Technology.pptx
byKarloFredoAngway
 
Chapter1.ppt
byMrMutiullahJamil
 
Designing information for online users. Numbers. Profiles. Techniques.
byRosário Durão
 
8. bài đọc đục lỗ
byHườngg Thu
 
Did you know fact sheet
bymandyjo123
 
Chapter_1_Gift_of_Fire(6).ppt
bydaniloalbay1
 
DidYouKnow
bymcolizzi
 
Did You Know
byLuis Saga
 
Detweiler,com303 50,final project
byselmik
 
Using storytelling to explore the rich context of user experience (Agile 2010)
byWhitney Quesenbery and Kevin Brooks
 
GA Tech FutureMedia Fest
byCarlos Dominguez
 
VCF Comments, April 27
byLO*OP Center, Inc.
 
Elaine Jones Comm 303 Presentation
bycardsgirl80
 
Shift Happens
byXerxies
 
Shift happens
byWilliam Hatcher
 
Reading (things from the present/past) - Imperatives
byCintia Santos
 

More from David Evans

PPTX
Cryptocurrency Jeopardy!
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Trick or Treat?: Bitcoin for Non-Believers, Cryptocurrencies for Cypherpunks
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Hidden Services, Zero Knowledge
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Anonymity in Bitcoin
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Midterm Confirmations
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Scripting Transactions
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
How to Live in Paradise
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Bitcoin Script
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Mining Economics
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Mining
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
The Blockchain
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Becoming More Paranoid
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Asymmetric Key Signatures
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Introduction to Cryptography
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Class 1: What is Money?
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Multi-Party Computation for the Masses
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Proof of Reserve
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Silk Road
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Blooming Sidechains!
byDavid Evans
 
PPTX
Useful Proofs of Work, Permacoin
byDavid Evans
 
Cryptocurrency Jeopardy!
byDavid Evans
 
Trick or Treat?: Bitcoin for Non-Believers, Cryptocurrencies for Cypherpunks
byDavid Evans
 
Hidden Services, Zero Knowledge
byDavid Evans
 
Anonymity in Bitcoin
byDavid Evans
 
Midterm Confirmations
byDavid Evans
 
Scripting Transactions
byDavid Evans
 
How to Live in Paradise
byDavid Evans
 
Bitcoin Script
byDavid Evans
 
Mining Economics
byDavid Evans
 
Mining
byDavid Evans
 
The Blockchain
byDavid Evans
 
Becoming More Paranoid
byDavid Evans
 
Asymmetric Key Signatures
byDavid Evans
 
Introduction to Cryptography
byDavid Evans
 
Class 1: What is Money?
byDavid Evans
 
Multi-Party Computation for the Masses
byDavid Evans
 
Proof of Reserve
byDavid Evans
 
Silk Road
byDavid Evans
 
Blooming Sidechains!
byDavid Evans
 
Useful Proofs of Work, Permacoin
byDavid Evans
 

Recently uploaded

PDF
eResource Scheduler Enterprise Resource Management and Scheduling Software.pdf
byeResource Scheduler
 
PDF
Top 7 Manufacturing Software for Small Businesses Boosting Growth in 2025
byEnvertis Software Solutions
 
PPTX
RISE with SAP for Automotive - S4 HANA Value.pptx
byAmira Jemi
 
PDF
Unlocking the Power of Salesforce Architecture: Frameworks for Effective Solu...
byvarsha30tiwari
 
PDF
Accelerating Responsible AI Adoption in Public Sector and Private Organizations.
byYasir Naveed Riaz
 
PPTX
Ethics in AI - Artificial Intelligence Fundamentals.pptx
byemenyiblessing
 
PDF
Generative AI in UiPath: Mastering the Generative Extractor for Intelligent D...
byDianaGray10
 
PDF
AI Technology important knowledge ......
byutkarshj2007
 
PDF
The year in review - MarvelClient in 2025
bypanagenda
 
PDF
Digit Expo 2025 - EICC Edinburgh 27th November
byRay Bugg
 
PDF
ElyriaSoftware — Powering the Future with Blockchain Innovation
byElyria Software
 
PDF
Safeguarding AI-Based Financial Infrastructure
byYasir Naveed Riaz
 
PDF
Vibe Coding vs. Spec-Driven Development [Free Meetup]
byHaim Michael
 
PDF
Usage Control for Process Discovery through a Trusted Execution Environment
byValerioGoretti
 
PDF
TrustArc Webinar - Looking Ahead: The 2026 Privacy Landscape
byTrustArc
 
PDF
Making Sense of Raster: From Bit Depth to Better Workflows
bySafe Software
 
PDF
Knowing and Doing: Knowledge graphs, AI, and work
bymarainglezakis1
 
PPTX
The Future of IT Service Management AI Automation & Beyond.pptx
byChetu
 
PDF
Igniting the Future: Copilot trends, agentic transformation and product roadm...
byUni Systems S.M.S.A.
 
PDF
The major tech developments for 2026 by Pluralsight, a research and training ...
byChris Skinner
 
eResource Scheduler Enterprise Resource Management and Scheduling Software.pdf
byeResource Scheduler
 
Top 7 Manufacturing Software for Small Businesses Boosting Growth in 2025
byEnvertis Software Solutions
 
RISE with SAP for Automotive - S4 HANA Value.pptx
byAmira Jemi
 
Unlocking the Power of Salesforce Architecture: Frameworks for Effective Solu...
byvarsha30tiwari
 
Accelerating Responsible AI Adoption in Public Sector and Private Organizations.
byYasir Naveed Riaz
 
Ethics in AI - Artificial Intelligence Fundamentals.pptx
byemenyiblessing
 
Generative AI in UiPath: Mastering the Generative Extractor for Intelligent D...
byDianaGray10
 
AI Technology important knowledge ......
byutkarshj2007
 
The year in review - MarvelClient in 2025
bypanagenda
 
Digit Expo 2025 - EICC Edinburgh 27th November
byRay Bugg
 
ElyriaSoftware — Powering the Future with Blockchain Innovation
byElyria Software
 
Safeguarding AI-Based Financial Infrastructure
byYasir Naveed Riaz
 
Vibe Coding vs. Spec-Driven Development [Free Meetup]
byHaim Michael
 
Usage Control for Process Discovery through a Trusted Execution Environment
byValerioGoretti
 
TrustArc Webinar - Looking Ahead: The 2026 Privacy Landscape
byTrustArc
 
Making Sense of Raster: From Bit Depth to Better Workflows
bySafe Software
 
Knowing and Doing: Knowledge graphs, AI, and work
bymarainglezakis1
 
The Future of IT Service Management AI Automation & Beyond.pptx
byChetu
 
Igniting the Future: Copilot trends, agentic transformation and product roadm...
byUni Systems S.M.S.A.
 
The major tech developments for 2026 by Pluralsight, a research and training ...
byChris Skinner
 

Inventing the Future

  • 1.
  • 2.
    This Week incs4414 Today: What will happen in the next 15 years Tomorrow (4:59pm Wednesday): team project submission due link, well-written description if you want to demo Thursday if you want extension to submit final project Thursday’s class: Project Demos Friday (11:49pm): Individual Submissions Due includes evaluation of your project teammates 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 1
  • 3.
    Prediction is very difficult,especially about the future. Neils Bohr Det er svært at spå, især om fremtiden. Robert Storm Petersen 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 2
  • 4.
    It is difficultto predict, especially about the future 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 3
  • 5.
    Past and Future 3December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 4
  • 6.
    AT&T’s “You Will”(1993-4) 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 5
  • 7.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 6
  • 8.
    3 December 2013 Universityof Virginia cs4414 7
  • 9.
    Prediction #1 Amazon, Facebook,Google, and Microsoft combined will contribute less valuable technological innovation to society in 19902030 than Bell Labs did in 1940-1980. transistor (1947) 3 December 2013 information theory, cryptography (1945) University of Virginia cs4414 cellular telephony (1947) 8
  • 10.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 9
  • 11.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Firstcarried your medical history in your wallet Release 2003 Agents conducted business in a language Created by Ahti Heinla , Priit Education you don’t understand rd learned special things from faraway places year had an assistant who lived in your Kasesalu, and Jaan Tallinn (3 had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer at University car with a television fixed your of Tartu in 1994) 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 10
  • 12.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 11
  • 13.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 12
  • 14.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption Berners-Lee Sir Tim borrowed a book from thousands of First WWW Prototype at CERN 1990miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 13
  • 15.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet Marc Andreesen conducted business in a language Student at U. Illinois Education you don’t understand NCSA Mosaic released in 1993 learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer David Filo and Jerry Yang fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 Students at Stanford University of Virginia cs4414 Yahoo 1994 14
  • 16.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 15
  • 17.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 16
  • 18.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history inGPS (10 sats): used in 1990-1 Gulf War your wallet conducted First Garmin: $2500business in a language Education you don’t understand GPS (24 learned special things from faraway places sats) Operational 1995lived in your had an assistant who had a classmate who is thousands of1996: Dual-Use Directive miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 17
  • 19.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 18
  • 20.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 19
  • 21.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television amazon.com opens: July 1995 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 20
  • 22.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 21
  • 23.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 22
  • 24.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 23
  • 25.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 24
  • 26.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 25
  • 27.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach August 2011 Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 26
  • 28.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach August 2011 Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 27
  • 29.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 28
  • 30.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 29
  • 31.
    $100,000,000 Cost to sequencehuman genome Moore’s Law prediction (halve every 18 months) $10,000,000 Predicting steady technology improvement is easy! $1,000,000 $100,000 $10,000 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 30 Feb 2013 Aug 2012 Feb 2012 Aug 2011 Feb 2011 Aug 2010 Feb 2010 Aug 2009 Feb 2009 Aug 2008 Feb 2008 Aug 2007 Feb 2007 Aug 2006 Feb 2006 Aug 2005 Feb 2005 Aug 2004 Feb 2004 Aug 2003 Feb 2003 Aug 2002 Feb 2002 Aug 2001 $1,000
  • 32.
    $100,000,000 Cost to sequencehuman genome Moore’s Law prediction (halve every 18 months) $10,000,000 $1,000,000 $100,000 $10,000 University of Virginia cs4414 31 Feb 2013 Aug 2012 Feb 2012 Aug 2011 Feb 2011 Aug 2010 Feb 2010 Aug 2009 Feb 2009 Aug 2008 Feb 2008 Aug 2007 Feb 2007 Aug 2006 Feb 2006 Aug 2005 Feb 2005 Aug 2004 Feb 2004 Aug 2003 Feb 2003 Aug 2002 Aug 2001 3 December 2013 Feb 2002 Ion torrent Personal Genome Machine $1,000
  • 33.
    Human Genome SequencingUsing Unchained Base Reads on Self-Assembling DNA Nanoarrays. Radoje Drmanac, Andrew B. Sparks, Matthew J. Callow, Aaron L. Halpern, Norman L. Burns, Bahram G. Kermani, Paolo Carnevali, Igor Nazarenko, Geoffrey B. Nilsen, George Yeung, Fredrik Dahl, Andres Fernandez, Bryan Staker, Krishna P. Pant, Jonathan Baccash, Adam P. Borcherding, Anushka Brownley, Ryan Cedeno, Linsu Chen, Dan Chernikoff, Alex Cheung, Razvan Chirita, Benjamin Curson, Jessica C. Ebert, Coleen R. Hacker, Robert Hartlage, Brian Hauser, Steve Huang, Yuan Jiang, Vitali Karpinchyk, Mark Koenig, Calvin Kong, Tom Landers, Catherine Le, Jia Liu, Celeste E. McBride, Matt Morenzoni, Robert E. Morey, Karl Mutch, Helena Perazich, Kimberly Perry, Brock A. Peters, Joe Peterson, Charit L. Pethiyagoda, Kaliprasad Pothuraju, Claudia Richter, Abraham M. Rosenbaum, Shaunak Roy, Jay Shafto, Uladzislau Sharanhovich, Karen W. Shannon, Conrad G. Sheppy, Michel Sun, Joseph V. Thakuria, Anne Tran, Dylan Vu, Alexander Wait Zaranek, Xiaodi Wu, Snezana Drmanac, Arnold R. Oliphant, William C. Banyai, Bruce Martin, Dennis G. Ballinger, George M. Church, Clifford A. Reid. Science, January 2010. 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 32
  • 34.
    3 December 2013 Universityof Virginia cs4414 33
  • 35.
    Commerce renewed your driver’slicense at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 34
  • 36.
    Prediction #2 Within 15years, at least 95% of the world’s adult population will have done everything on the “You Will” list (or something comparable but much better). Note: this implies end to world poverty! 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 35
  • 37.
    3 December 2013 Universityof Virginia cs4414 36
  • 38.
    1948 3 December 2013 Universityof Virginia cs4414 37
  • 39.
    1994 3 December 2013 Universityof Virginia cs4414 38
  • 40.
    3 December 2013 Universityof Virginia cs4414 39
  • 41.
    3 December 2013 Universityof Virginia cs4414 40
  • 42.
    “Today, of Americans officiallydesignated as ‘poor’, 99 percent have electricity, running water, flush toilets, and a refrigerator; 95 percent have a television, 88 percent a telephone, 71 percent a car and 70 percent air conditioning. Cornelius Vanderbilt had none of these.” Matt Ridley 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 41
  • 43.
    Pace of Progress 3December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 42
  • 44.
    Year of Invention -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 0 Rankon List 10 20 30 40 50 S ::= NP V NP ::= N and NP Cooking (-400 000) Language (-300 000) 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 Wheel (~4000 BC) 43
  • 45.
  • 46.
    Last Millennium 1000 1100 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3 December2013 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 #1: Printing Press University of Virginia cs4414 45
  • 47.
    Last Millennium 1000 1100 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3 December2013 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 #1: Printing Press 1700 1800 1900 #2: Electricity Nikola Tesla University of Virginia cs4414 46
  • 48.
    Last Millennium 1000 1100 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3 December2013 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 #2: Electricity #1: Printing Press #4: Semiconductor #9: Internet #16: Personal Computer University of Virginia cs4414 47
  • 49.
    Prediction #3 Over thenext 15 years, there will be inventions that change the world at least as much as the semiconductor, personal computer, and Internet did over the last 30. Drone delivery? 3D fabrication? Printing food? 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 AI? 48
  • 50.
  • 51.
    “If you’re goingto use your computer to simulate some phenomenon in the universe, then it only becomes interesting if you change the scale of that phenomenon by at least a factor of 10. … For a 3D simulation, an increase by a factor of 10 in each of the three dimensions increases your volume by a factor of 1000.” What is the asymptotic running time for simulating the universe? 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 50
  • 52.
    Astrophysics and Moore’sLaw 3) (n • Simulating universe is • Moore’s “law”: computing power doubles every 18 months • Dr. Tyson: to understand something new about the universe, need to scale by 10x How long does it take to know twice as much about the universe? 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 51
  • 53.
    3 December 2013 Universityof Virginia cs4414 52
  • 54.
    3 December 2013 Universityof Virginia cs4414 53
  • 55.
    15 years 1000xcomputing power  double understanding re’s an ritten rule in ophysics: your puter lation must before you Neil deGrasse Tyson Will there be any mystery left in the Universe when you die? 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 54
  • 56.
    Only two thingsare infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former. Albert Einstein 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 55
  • 57.
    The Endless GoldenAge • Golden Age – period in which knowledge/quality of something improves exponentially • At any point in history, half of what is known about astrophysics was discovered in the previous 15 years! – Moore’s law today, but other advances previously (and tomorrow): telescopes, photocopiers, clocks, agriculture, drone Accumulating 4% per year => doubling every 15 years! delivery, personal assistant, etc. 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 56
  • 58.
    Log scale: straightline = exponential curve! 3 December 2013 “Any physical quantity that’s growing exponentially predicts a disaster, you simply can’t go beyond certain major limits.” Gordon Moore (2007) Koomey’s Law:Assessing Trends in the Electrical Efficiency of Computation Over Time University of Virginia cs4414 57
  • 59.
    An analysis ofthe history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century-it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate)... Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to the Singularity — technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and non-biological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of2013 3 December light. University of Virginia cs4414 Ray Kurzweil 58
  • 60.
    3 December 2013 Universityof Virginia cs4414 59
  • 61.
    Sustainability is avery depressing goal for a scientist/engineer – we should be striving for progress! 1. share what we have with the rest of the world (by lowering costs) 2. invent new things that improve the quality, interconnectedness, and length of human life 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 60
  • 62.
    Golden Ages or Golden Catastrophes? 3December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 61
  • 63.
    Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus, Essayon the Principle of Population, 1798 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 62
  • 64.
    The great andunlooked for discoveries that have taken place of late years in natural philosophy, the increasing diffusion of general knowledge from the extension of the art of printing, the ardent and unshackled spirit of inquiry that prevails throughout the lettered and even unlettered world, … have all concurred to lead many able men into the opinion that we were touching on a period big with the most important changes, changes that would in some measure be decisive of the future fate of mankind.” 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 63
  • 65.
    I think Imay fairly make two postulata. –First, that food is necessary to the existence of man. –Secondly, that the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain…. Assuming then my postulata, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio. Food per person = (n) / (kn) approaches 0 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 64
  • 66.
  • 67.
    Malthus’ Fallacy He forgothow he started: The great and unlooked for discoveries that have taken place of late years in natural philosophy, the increasing diffusion of general knowledge from the extension of the art of printing, the ardent and unshackled spirit of inquiry that prevails throughout the lettered and even unlettered world… 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 66
  • 68.
    Golden Age ofFood Production Agriculture is an “endless golden age” field: production from the same land increases as ~ (1.02n) Increasing knowledge of farming, weather forecasting, plant domestication, genetic engineering, pest repellants, distribution channels, preservatives, etc. 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 67
  • 69.
    Growing Corn 1906: <1,000 pounds per acre 2006: 10,000 pounds per acre Michael Pollan’s The Omnivore’s Dilemma 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 68
  • 70.
    Note: Log axis! CornYield http://www.agbioforum.org/v2n1/v2n1a10-ruttan.htm 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 69
  • 71.
  • 72.
    Green Revolution Norman Borlaug(1914-2009) 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 71
  • 73.
    “At a timewhen doom-sayers were hopping around saying everyone was going to starve, Norman was working. He moved to Mexico and lived among the people there until he figured out how to improve the output of the farmers. So that saved a million lives. Then he packed up his family and moved to India, where in spite of a war with Pakistan, he managed to introduce new wheat strains that quadrupled their food output. So that saved another million. You get it? But he wasn't done. He did the same thing with a new rice in China. He's doing the same thing in Africa -- as much of Africa as he's allowed to visit. When he won the Nobel Prize in 1970, they said he had saved a billion people. That's BILLION! BUH! That's Carl Sagan BILLION with a "B"! And most of them were a different race from him. Norman is the greatest human being, and you probably never heard of him.” Penn Jillette (Penn & Teller) 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 72
  • 74.
    Malthus was wrongabout #2 Also Advances in science (birth control), medicine (higher life expectancy), education, and societal and political changes (e.g., regulation in China) have reduced k (it is < 1 in many countries now!) 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 73
  • 75.
  • 76.
    3 December 2013 Universityof Virginia cs4414 75
  • 77.
    “Cornucopian View” Few resourcesare really finite All scientific things have endless golden ages Knowledge accumulates Knowledge makes it easier to acquire more (We hope) Human ingenuity and economics and politics will continue solve problems before they become catastrophes No one will sell the last gallon of gas for $3 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 76
  • 78.
    Prediction #4 The vastmajority of jobs people have today will be automated, and the fraction of the world’s population who can produce something of economic value (i.e., that cannot be done better and cheaper by machines) will plummet. Automated Mall Cop 3 December 2013 Automated Warehouse University of Virginia cs4414 77
  • 79.
    Will the eliminationof tedious human work cause mass riots or mass rejoicing? Luddites, 1812 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 78
  • 80.
    Charles Vest’s slideidea! America will always do the right thing but only after exhausting all other options. Winston Churchill 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 79
  • 81.
    Charge The best wayto predict the future is to invent it. — Alan Kay Project submissions by 4:59pm tomorrow! 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 80