By Charlotte Lau, Amanda Harding, and Simon Cook. As part of a CPWF September 2011 workshop in Thailand regarding global drivers, we divided participants into basin-specific groups and led them through an exploratory future scenarios thinking exercise.

1. 2050
Future Scenario Thinking
an introduction
Charlotte Lau, Simon Cook,
and Amanda Harding

2. What is FST? 2050
• Scenario thinking is a disciplined method of
imagining possible futures
– Elements that cannot be modeled
– Includes subjective interpretations
– Creates narratives
• Key: hypotheses, not predictions
– Designed to capture full range of possibilities
– Prevents you from being blindsided

3. Basic FST process 2050
• Maps out dynamics of
change
• Allows you to
combine trends
(“what you know”)
with uncertainties
and wild cards (“what
you don’t know) to
create scenarios of
possible futures Schoemaker, 1995

4. Past and present usages 2050
• Originally used successfully in the private
sector – Shell Oil in 1970s
• Also applications in politics – South African
panel post-apartheid
• Nowadays increasingly used in non-profit
organizations
• DFID core strategic planning tool, from mid-
1990s on

5. Collective learning process 2050
• FST is essentially
a study of our
collective
ignorance and a
process of
collective
learning
• Allows you to
think outside
your immediate
“circle”
Scearce, et al. 2004
Global Business Network

6. Application for the CPWF 2050
• Is this helpful?
• What do you think?

7. Application for the CPWF 2050
• Scenarios can be used to identify early
warning signals, indicators, or thresholds of
negative outcomes
• For the CPWF, it can help:
– Assess the robustness of our core competencies
– Generate better strategic options
– Evaluate risk/return profile of options in view of
opportunities

8. The process in brief 2050
• MATERIALS:
– Worksheet with guiding questions
– Blank worksheet (to fill out)
– Rectangular and circular colored paper
– Plain white paper (blank)
– Only in case you get stuck: example
scenarios, example global drivers

9. The process in brief 2050
• Step 0: Define the scope.
– Timeline: Now to 2050
– Focal question: How will regional and global
drivers impact water and food security in your
basin by/in 2050?
– POV: CPWF, in order to reduce poverty, improve
livelihoods resilience, and boost ecosystem
services
• Step 0.5: Sketch out global drivers in the
status quo. (your presentations)

10. The process in brief 2050
• Step 1: Identify major stakeholders at every
scale
• Step 2: Identify basic trends, uncertainties,
and wild cards
– Global drivers can be ongoing or predetermined
elements (“trends”) or they can be difficult-to-
characterize uncertainties/wild cards
• Step 3: Identify any quantitative support you
have for your “trends”

11. The process in brief 2050
• Step 4: Characterize rules of interaction.
– Thinking about how trends and uncertainties
interact; and how stakeholders might react
• Step 5: Draft scenarios.
– Combine trends and uncertainties. We will show
how to do this. (For more methods, ask us!)
– Title the scenarios and write the narratives.
– Check for variability in your scenarios.

12. The process in brief 2050
• Step 6 & 7: Check for internal inconsistencies.
• Step 8: Search for quantitative models
– What kinds of quantitative models are needed to
support your scenarios?
• Step 9: Identify responses and research needs
– What would appropriate responses be for each
scenario?
– What is priority research for each basin, or for the
program?

13. Example: NYC housing 2050
• Focal question:
How will rent costs Regional/ All 5
boroughs
National
and housing politics
demographics look Brooklyn NYC
State
in 2020? Bronx projects
legislature/
Queens
• POV: NGO NYC
govt
advocating Welfare
govt
affordable housing programs
for the poor; anti-
gentrification

14. Example: NYC housing 2050
• Stakeholders: NYC housing authority, NYC government, New Yorkers
today and potential (at all SES: lower-income, gentrifiers), landlords,
CSOs
• Trends:
– Gentrification
– City population growth
– Increasing cost of living and transport in general
– Security concerns (earlier: crimes, now: terrorism)
• Uncertainties:
– Will wealthy non-natives continue to move in, willing to pay $$?
– Will rent control continue to protect affordable housing?
– Will outer boroughs move towards apartment-style housing, over
houses?
– Will the economic crisis/housing crash continue to affect prices?

15. Example: NYC housing 2050
• Wildcards:
– Series of really awful terrorist attacks that
destroys the economy and prevents people from
moving to NY
• Rules of interaction:
– NYC legislature cares more about renters than
landlords (likely to keep rent control). All trends
interact together to push costs upwards, unless
uncertainties mitigate.

16. 2050
Questions?
If not, we’ll begin!

17. 2050
“Anyone can create scenarios.
But it will be much easier if you are
willing to encourage your own
imagination, novelty, and even sense
of the absurd—as well as your sense
of realism”

18. 0.5: Characterize status quo 2050
• Past and current drivers
• What drivers have historically affected food
and water in these basins, and in the world?
– E.g., green revolution, urbanization, changed food
habits, economic growth, overexploitation of
natural resources, globalization
• What drivers currently affect food and water
in your basin? 10 minutes

19. 1: Identify major stakeholders 2050
• Individuals, groups, institutions
• Who will have interest in these issues?
• Who will be affected by them?
• ID stakeholders and their current
roles, interests, power positions—and how
these have changed over time
5 minutes

20. 2. THE FUTURE: Identify known
trends, uncertainties, and wild cards 2050
• Global drivers can be trends or uncertainties.
– Rule of thumb: If all team members agree that a
driver is irrefutably going to keep happening, it’s a
trend. Otherwise, it’s an uncertainty
• Wild cards are things that are unlikely but
would really change everything, e.g. a cure to
cancer or HIV vaccine.
• If you end up with long laundry lists, try to cut
them down or group them to max 7 for each.
30 minutes

21. 2. THE FUTURE: Identify known trends,
uncertainties, and wild cards 2050
• Write TRENDS on the RECTANGULAR papers.
• Write UNCERTAINTIES (2 for each- one “yes,” the other
“no”) on the CIRCULAR papers.
• These are color-coded for the type of driver:
– Orange = Demographic / Social
– Pink = Technological / Innovation
– Green = Environmental / Climate change
– Yellow = Economic / Trade 30 minutes
– Blue = Political / Legal / Institutional
• Score the degree of anticipated impact (-, 0, +)

22. 3. Identify quantitative support 2050
• Do you know of any models/statistics (or can you
find ones) to help you verify these trends, or
answer uncertainties?
• OTHER RESEARCH: Anything else in your
periphery that could be a game-changer?
• You may want to use our resources:
– http://docs.google.com
– Username: globaldriversTWG, Password: simoncook
– Left side navigation bar: Article Bank
– OR ask Charlotte to sign you into Harvard google
scholar
15 minutes

23. 4. Dynamics of interaction 2050
• Which stakeholders might act/react
together, and in what sorts of ways?
– REMEMBER: If stakeholders in power have control
over a trend they don’t like, they might change it.
• Which uncertainties couldn’t co-exist?
• Which trends/uncert. build on each other?
30 minutes

24. 4. Dynamics of interaction 2050
• Checking co-
existence of
uncertainties
– page 3 in your
packets

25. 5. Draft Scenarios 2050
• Mix and match.
– Mix around your cards to see if you can find scenarios
that make sense.
• Easiest beginning: put all the + together, and all the –
together, to create best- and worst- case scenarios.
• Trends/uncertainties can have diff. importance (can score)
• Visually check that you’re getting a good mix of circles,
rectangles, and colors.
• Remember to connect these using your identified interaction
dynamics and stakeholders.
– Write out narratives for them. 45 minutes total

26. NYC Housing: Scenarios 2050
Pop growth Outer
Wealthy
-3 borough
in-migr
aptmts –
YES, -3
YES, +4
Gentrification
-5
Econ
Rent
crisis
control –
Security affects –
YES, -1?
concerns NO, -2
+1
4/5 colors, mix of trends (rect) and uncertainties (circles)
Total: -8 (realistic middle scenario)

27. NYC Housing: Scenarios 2050
The Bridge and Tunnel Answer
Title
Answering uncertainties The economic crisis and security concerns have no real effect on
Demographics people in-migrating to New York, and in fact only results in the
wealthy coming. This pushes up the costs of all non-rent-
Economics
controlled apartments. (Rent control remains, as Democrats
Politics / Stakeholder-poltn
remain in power.)Manhattan becomes fully saturated. As a result,
Demographics gentrification continues. The Jehovah’s Witnesses sell out their
vast holdings in downtown Brooklyn, releasing significant land for
Landlord- stakeholder apartments. The government pushes out well-located projects
e.g. in Queens and lower Manhattan, to further out in Brooklyn
NGO mission – impact on or Staten Island (free ferry service). Poor communities move out
poor to pockets of New Jersey and Connecticut, and increasingly live in
over-stuffed apartment buildings in Staten Island, the Bronx, and
Economics/ Innovation distant Brooklyn. In response to housing demand, Queens turns
increasingly to apartment-style housing over individual houses.
MTA –stakeholder The MTA raises transport costs to extend the subway to more
neighborhoods in Queens, making this a viable option for
Impact on other NYers commuters. This reduces the housing crunch, preventing rents
from rising too much.

28. NYC Housing: Scenarios 2050
This is sort of the Econ Outer
wild card Security Wealthy
concerns crisis borough
scenario, where in-migr
+5 affects – aptmts –
security concerns NO, +3
YES, +4 YES, +2
and the economic
crisis combine to Pop growth
lower population -1
pressures, preventin Rent
g a housing crunch control –
and reducing Gentrification YES, ?
pressures for -3
gentridication.
4/5 colors, mix of trends (rect) and uncertainties (circles)
Total: +9 (maybe best-case scenario)

29. 5. Draft scenarios, part 2 2050
• Make sure that you have cogent narratives for
each scenario. If you don’t, spend time now to
title and write out each one.
• Check for variability: are your scenarios
looking at the full range of possible futures?
(plot on graph)
• Consider the implications of the wild cards, if
you haven’t already.
45 minutes total

30. 5. Draft scenarios, part 3 2050
• Checking for
variability in
scenarios
– Page 4 in
your packets

31. 6-7. Check for internal inconsistencies. 2050
• Could these all happen by 2050? (consistent
within time frame)
• Do they combine outcomes of uncertainties
that go together?
• Could high-powered stakeholders change
things they don’t like?
45 minutes total

32. 8. Search for quantitative models. 2050
• What kind of quantitative models do you need
that could support analysis of your scenarios?
• Do you know of any that exist? (you don’t
have to know how they function, or what the
results would be)
2 minutes

33. 9. ID responses & research needs 2050
• “Scoring exercise” worksheet – Think of it as
your homework!
not now.

34. 2050
Thank you.
Now on to presentations
and discussion!

35. 5.Draft scenarios. 2050
GROWING POPULATION
• Method 1: Crossing Influx of rich ppl + natural growth
uncertainties. There is a huge
housing
Y More people, but more
housing. Manhattan is full
– Try crossing pairs of crunch/crisis in NY.
Poor people move
(rent control).
Elsewhere, rents stay the
out to Staten Island
uncertainties (trial and error). or to NJ. New York
same or increase only
slightly. Gentrification
– Sometimes you can group becomes really
expensive. Protests.
slows, but projects get
pushed out. Apts in
more specific uncertainties N outer
Y boroughs
The status quo
into one larger one. continues. Rents Fewer people come, and more
and gentrification people leave because of the
– Once you get a pair that increase steadily.
Perhaps another city
economic crisis and rising costs
of living in NYC. Apartments are
sticks, layer on the trends (LA? Chicago?) has N built in Queens/Brooklyn,
become more expanding housing options.
and rules of interaction. desirable for jobs. Rent decreases.