This document summarizes Dr. Cyril Widdershoven's presentation on energy, security, and economic opportunities in the Mediterranean region. It discusses the turmoil in the region following the Arab Spring uprisings, instability in North Africa, and challenges facing European energy security. It argues that greater cooperation is needed between Europe, North African countries, Turkey, and other regional players to address conflicts, boost investments, and ensure stable energy supplies and security.

1. “ECONOMY, ENERGY AND
SECURITY; NEW OPPORTUNITIES”
International Mediterranean Conference Istanbul April 2016
Dr Cyril Widdershoven
SVP Research MEA-Risk.com
Founder VEROCY.com
Senior Fellow Hazar Strategy
Mob: +31-6-53819265, Skype: Cyril.widdershoven
Email: cw@mea-risk.com; cyril.widdershoven@verocy.com

2. Setting the Scene: Turmoil and Instability
• Intro
• Global Market
• Europe’s Energy Situation
• North Africa oil and gas
• Levant Opportunities
• Arab Spring Repercussions
• Turkey’s Promise
• Future Scenario

3. MEA-Risk.com
• MEA Risk LLC performs tracking/alerting activity, risk
rating and analysis specific to the Africa and Middle East.
Tracking and alerting are related to events and incidents
that constitute critical risk factors to countries,
organizations and individuals.
• Events and incidents are captured by teams on the
ground, and summarized, analyzed and immediately
disseminated.

4. VEROCY.com

5. World Oil Markets: Blood on the Wall?

6. Global Demand Growth Slowth

7. Overall Demand Growth Still There!

8. Global Production Growth Takes Plunge

9. Non-OPEC Supply Hit Hard 2016

14. Oversupply Threatened, Investments
Deferrals Will Cause Deficit (soon?)

15. CAPEX

16. North Africa- Middle East Energy Turmoil

17. OPEC Production: Saudi-Iran potential

18. Middle East Still Centre of Universe?

19. European Energy Security Situation or
Crisis?

20. EU Strategy or Fata Morgana?

21. North Africa Oil & Gas Pipelines

22. East Med to the Rescue?

23. Levant Promising?

24. Egypt’s return as LNG exporter?

25. Land of Milk & Gas or Disputes
Continuing?

27. Mediterranean Security Threats

28. Threats or Opportunities EU-MED
Threats:
• Syrian implosion continues, Russian influence growing
• Iranian influence growing (Syria, Lebanon, Iraq military and
Turkey Energy)
• Arab Spring implosion of Arab Societies and Power Structures
• Democracy – Theocracy – Enlightened Dictatorship
• Economic Security North Africa Levant under pressure
• Energy Security Levant (Israel-Cyprus-Lebanon-Turkey) under
pressure

29. Future Mediterranean Security Bleak
• After decades of possibilities to have an integrated zone
energy security, MED has become world’s leading area of
energy insecurity
• Arab Spring and Western interventions have led to
instability, destruction of state structures and power
arrangements
• Arab Spring revolutions and post-revolution power
struggle has led to decline in oil gas supplies
• Re-emergence of European/West – Russian power
politics, Putin leading Russian advance
• Arab Spring and Ukraine led to renewed Russian –
European conflict, forcing Europe to seek new supplies
• Sanctions on Russia are NOT working, European
countries split on sanctions implementation
• Turkey-Russia conflict continuing, Russian gas supplies
to Turkey constraint

30. Algeria Energy Critical Incidents 2015-
2016

31. Libya Energy Critical Incidents 2015-2016

33. Egypt Energy Critical Incidents 2015-2016

34. Underlying issues: Syria-Russia-ISIS

35. Lines of Conflict and Oil Revenues?

37. Europe Security of Energy vs Russian
Bear

38. Europe’s Security Threats

39. Europe’s alternatives in MENA ?

40. Economical issues:
• EU financial crisis (Greece, Portugal, Italy) has led to lower
interest for North Africa – Levant
• Lower investments in North Africa and European interference
have increased declining economics North African countries
(Egypt, Algeria)
• Economic instability and political interference has led to lower
growth or economic decline
• North Africa expected to feel competition of US shale oil/gas
developments
• North African oil and gas exports to Europe also constraint by
LNG market developments Qatar, Iran, Australia, Mozambique
• Insecurity North Africa and Levant has led to lower investment
budgets and divestments IOCs

41. Future Options:
• Europe needs to implement European Foreign Energy
Strategy
• Europe needs to engage (on equal footing) North African
regimes in stability projects
• NATO needs to engage fully with North African and Arab
States to set up applicable security structures
• NATO-GCC military cooperation could be used to support
equal developments in North Africa-Levant
• Turkey needs to act as main power broker, together with
Egypt-Saudi Arabia-UAE and Israel, to set up workable
security and military operations to quell unrest and
instability

42. Main focus at present should be to:
• Approach Libyan crisis with a direct and functional military approach,
combined with economic support for recognized government
• Support Algeria to quell growing security issues in south and Kabilya
regions
• Address Egyptian security issues on an equal footing, setting up
combined security operations in Sinai, Western Desert and especially
around the Suez Canal
• Set up trilateral security-energy working group between Israel-Cyprus
and Turkey, to deal with outstanding issues, to force a solution on
energy (offshore oil/gas) and security issues
• Address in overall security arrangements the growing strategic role
that Turkey will and has to play in the European security and energy
future
• Don’t have any unilateral Western military operations in the region
anymore, as the results of Syria, Libya and Egypt’s Facebook
revolutions have been vastly negative

43. Info
• Dr. Cyril Widdershoven is currently SVP Research of US-based consultancy MEA-Risk.com and co-
founder of Dutch critical risk (defense/security/energy MENA) consultancy VEROCY. He also is Fellow of
IAGS US (www.IAGS.org) and Senior Fellow of Turkish strategic thinktank HAZAR..
• Dr. Widdershoven is a long-time observer of the global energy market with focus on geopolitical risk,
terrorism, fundamentalism and military/defense related issues in the MENA region. Presently, he holds
several advisory positions with international think tanks in the Middle East and energy sectors in the
Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In earlier career assignments, he held positions
at Capgemini Consulting, Deloitte Financial Advisory Services, and as Senior Financial Analyst Oil & Gas
Sector FDA, where he managed and advised the oil and gas department on equity and bond markets, with
the main targets being Shell, BP, Total, Eni, BG, Heerema, Fugro, DSM, Dow Chemicals, BASF, Statoil,
Schlumberger, Halliburton, PSG, and Repsol.
• Dr. Widdershoven held several senior publishing positions in leading energy publications such as Afroil,
Middle East Oil and Gas, and North Africa Oil and Gas Magazine Cairo, and he continues to oversee the
Mediterranean Energy Political Risk Consultancy. Dr. Widdershoven worked on M&A operations in Egypt,
Libya, Sudan, and Iran, he studied the pipeline operations in Libya, Algeria, Nigeria and Turkey, and he
assessed risk for institutional investors and banks in Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Iraq, all while
advising the Dutch government and international organizations on related issues.
• Dr. Widdershoven has throughout his career lived and worked in numerous Middle East countries, with a
home base in Egypt, where he was Head of Investment and Research at ARTOC Group for Investment and
Development in Cairo. He is also has founded North Africa’s first English language oil and gas monthly
North Africa Oil and Gas Magazine, now called Petroleum Africa, and was one of the founders of the Middle
East Oil Gas Newsletter and Africa Oil Newsletter at Newsbase (UK).
• Dr. Widdershoven earned his post graduate degrees at King’s College, University of London, Department of
War Studies, and an MA in Middle East Studies at the University of Nijmegen, Netherlands.