Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is an integral part of engineering in major hazards industries such as oil & gas, but often adds little value to the project. This paper outlines how I addressed this on some real projects.

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Integrating QRA into Fast-Track Design
The Problem
Many operators and regulators require QRA to confirm that a
proposed design will allow risk targets to be met. In addition,
QRA (and the various studies that it comprises) are potentially
useful to guide design.
However, on many fast-track design projects, QRA results are
available too late to be used as input to the design without
jeopardising schedule commitments. Also, it is found that where
QRA is performed by independent consultants, the output they
provide tends to be standardised by their QRA modelling
software, rather than being tailored to the needs of the design.
Identified Root Causes
 Full QRA requires input data describing the design at a level
of detail that is not available until late in the basic
engineering / FEED stage, so results cannot be provided until
the end of the stage.
 Many QRA consultants do not have experience in engineering
teams and do not appreciate what information is useful.
 At critical stages of QRA when input data or output needs to
be discussed, the consultant is often busy doing the analysis
and does not communicate with the engineers.
The Solution
The standard QRA subcontract scope of work was adapted for the
project to address these problems.
 A two-stage QRA was specified – initial, coarse assessment
providing input to design, followed by a final, detailed
assessment to confirm it.
 Before each stage, a meeting was held to agree assumptions.
 Specified output from the first stage included design accident
parameters to be incorporated into specifications for safety-
critical equipment.
 One of the consultant’s personnel to be based in the
engineer’s design office as a point of contact (QRA
coordinator) during critical stages of the assessment.
The Outcome
 Consultants were prepared to bid on the modified scope.
 Assumptions that could not be confirmed were incorporated into specifications,
performance standards, actions, etc. for future close-out.
 First-stage QRA provided useful information for completing the design.
 The result was a more seamless match between design, QRA and safety case.
 The presence of the QRA Coordinator improved communication without halting work on
QRA as communications were put in place for remote working.
 The QRA Coordinator gained useful experience in a design engineering environment.