The document discusses the difficulty of predicting innovation and the future of technology. It notes that experts are often not as accurate as chance in their predictions, and that truly innovative companies are able to achieve what experts deem impossible or improbable. The document also highlights how industries and leading companies are often disrupted by new innovations and new players that emerge.
The slides present some of the research from a new book, The New Polymath - which is excerpted and reviewed at www.thenewpolymath.com . Polymath is Greek for Renaissance Person good at many disciplines. It's about how enterprises are learning to put together 3,5, 15 strands of infotech, cleantech, biotech etc to create compound innovations - new algorithms, new energy and new medicine
My keynote at Velocity New York (#VelocityConf) on September 17, 2014. The failure of healthcare.gov was a textbook DevOps (or rather, lack of DevOps) case study. But it’s part of a wider pattern that reminds us that people should be at the heart of everything we build. In fact, getting the “people” part right is the key both to DevOps and great user experience design. It runs from the Internet of Things right through building government services that really work for citizens.
The slides present some of the research from a new book, The New Polymath - which is excerpted and reviewed at www.thenewpolymath.com . Polymath is Greek for Renaissance Person good at many disciplines. It's about how enterprises are learning to put together 3,5, 15 strands of infotech, cleantech, biotech etc to create compound innovations - new algorithms, new energy and new medicine
My keynote at Velocity New York (#VelocityConf) on September 17, 2014. The failure of healthcare.gov was a textbook DevOps (or rather, lack of DevOps) case study. But it’s part of a wider pattern that reminds us that people should be at the heart of everything we build. In fact, getting the “people” part right is the key both to DevOps and great user experience design. It runs from the Internet of Things right through building government services that really work for citizens.
The Biggest Problem In TV: Split... AttentionTodd Green
Split attention is a major problem for TV producers - what should they do about it?
- Slides propose an approach based on existing viewer behaviour
- Lots of examples from TV, and a case study on The X Factor app
- I gave this talk at Loughborough on 22/10/13
Programmes as Platforms: How to understand IP in interactive TVTodd Green
- Four models for intellectual property in TV - showing how interactivity changes each of them
- A new model for understanding IP in interactive TV: Programmes as Platforms
- Conclusion: interactive TV shows should be understood as analogous to web platforms, like Facebook
Like every year, BETC Digital travelled to Austin to bring you fresh inspiration and new ideas from SXSW, the famous digital festival.
Where is digital heading in the following years? We attended conferences by people such as Eric Schmidt, Julian Assange or Edward Snowden to gather their views of the topic.
Someone shared this set of questions as part of a job application for a strategy role a while back. I thought they were such interesting questions, I made this deck to answer them just to exercise the strategic muscles.
Wearable Technology - Learning, Connecting, Monitoring and Posing Seymourpowell
Probably the most discussed technological advancements since the iPhone was introduced, wearable technology embodies the unavoidable and fascinating era of enmeshing computers and advanced electronic technologies onto our selves – through accessories and clothing. In sci-fi speak – it is the biological integration of electromechanical elements for the benefit of the human self. Cyborgs, then.
In this article I will explore four key questions with wearables –
Will wearable technology make us more skilful?
Will it make us more connected?
Will it make us healthier?
Will it be stylish?
In each, I will strive to understand the potential and concern for technology in these areas and explore how effective this tech is at replacing something inferior, or not.
Oakland Public Ethics Commission: Transparency, Open Data, and Gov as PlatformTim O'Reilly
I spoke at the Oakland Public Ethics commission on June 25, 2013. I was trying to set some context about how the ideas of transparency, open data, and government platform should shape their thinking. This is a PDF with notes on my talking points below each slide.
Creating a Better Testing Future: The World Is Changing and We Must Change Wi...TechWell
The IEEE 829 Test Documentation standard is thirty years old this year. Boris Beizer’s first book on software testing also turned thirty. Testing Computer Software, the best selling book on software testing, is twenty-five. During the last three decades, hardware platforms have evolved from mainframes to minis to desktops to laptops to tablets to smartphones. Development paradigms have shifted from waterfall to agile. Consumers expect more functionality, demand higher quality, and are less loyal to brands. The world has changed dramatically and testing must change to match it. Testing processes that helped us succeed in the past may prevent our success in the future. Lee Copeland shares his insights into the future of testing, sharing his Do’s and Don’ts in the areas of technology, organization, test processes, test plans, and automation. Join Lee for a thought provoking look at creating a better testing future.
The Biggest Problem In TV: Split... AttentionTodd Green
Split attention is a major problem for TV producers - what should they do about it?
- Slides propose an approach based on existing viewer behaviour
- Lots of examples from TV, and a case study on The X Factor app
- I gave this talk at Loughborough on 22/10/13
Programmes as Platforms: How to understand IP in interactive TVTodd Green
- Four models for intellectual property in TV - showing how interactivity changes each of them
- A new model for understanding IP in interactive TV: Programmes as Platforms
- Conclusion: interactive TV shows should be understood as analogous to web platforms, like Facebook
Like every year, BETC Digital travelled to Austin to bring you fresh inspiration and new ideas from SXSW, the famous digital festival.
Where is digital heading in the following years? We attended conferences by people such as Eric Schmidt, Julian Assange or Edward Snowden to gather their views of the topic.
Someone shared this set of questions as part of a job application for a strategy role a while back. I thought they were such interesting questions, I made this deck to answer them just to exercise the strategic muscles.
Wearable Technology - Learning, Connecting, Monitoring and Posing Seymourpowell
Probably the most discussed technological advancements since the iPhone was introduced, wearable technology embodies the unavoidable and fascinating era of enmeshing computers and advanced electronic technologies onto our selves – through accessories and clothing. In sci-fi speak – it is the biological integration of electromechanical elements for the benefit of the human self. Cyborgs, then.
In this article I will explore four key questions with wearables –
Will wearable technology make us more skilful?
Will it make us more connected?
Will it make us healthier?
Will it be stylish?
In each, I will strive to understand the potential and concern for technology in these areas and explore how effective this tech is at replacing something inferior, or not.
Oakland Public Ethics Commission: Transparency, Open Data, and Gov as PlatformTim O'Reilly
I spoke at the Oakland Public Ethics commission on June 25, 2013. I was trying to set some context about how the ideas of transparency, open data, and government platform should shape their thinking. This is a PDF with notes on my talking points below each slide.
Creating a Better Testing Future: The World Is Changing and We Must Change Wi...TechWell
The IEEE 829 Test Documentation standard is thirty years old this year. Boris Beizer’s first book on software testing also turned thirty. Testing Computer Software, the best selling book on software testing, is twenty-five. During the last three decades, hardware platforms have evolved from mainframes to minis to desktops to laptops to tablets to smartphones. Development paradigms have shifted from waterfall to agile. Consumers expect more functionality, demand higher quality, and are less loyal to brands. The world has changed dramatically and testing must change to match it. Testing processes that helped us succeed in the past may prevent our success in the future. Lee Copeland shares his insights into the future of testing, sharing his Do’s and Don’ts in the areas of technology, organization, test processes, test plans, and automation. Join Lee for a thought provoking look at creating a better testing future.
Kéri Katalin: Adalékok a speciális és gyógyító nevelés spanyolországi történe...Ambrus Attila József
Pamplonában 2009 júniusában rendeztek egy konferenciát Hosszú út az inklúzív nevelés felé (El largo camino
hacia una Educación Inclusiva) címmel. Jelen bemutatásomban az ott elhangzott előadások anyagára és a témáról
szóló elsődleges forrásokra és kézikönyvekre alapozva szeretném összefoglalni a speciális nevelés spanyol
történetét, különös tekintettel a XIX. századi történésekre. Háttérinformációként szeretném megemlíteni, hogy
kutatásom kiteljesítéséhez nagyon nagy segítséget nyújtott a jelentős számú, ingyenesen hozzáférhető digitális
kötetet tartalmazó Miguel Cervantes virtuális könyvtár1, ahol a spanyol gyógypedagógia története szempontjából
fontos csaknem valamennyi alapmű is megtalálható a középkortól napjainkig, teljes terjedelmében és eredeti
képi formájában, spanyol és/vagy katalán nyelven.
Előadásom elején összefoglalom, hogy melyek voltak a spanyol gyógyító nevelés kezdeti lépései a
középkortól a XVIII. század végéig. Ezt követően szólok a XIX. században alapított speciális iskolákról és alapkönyvekről.
Előadásom végén pedig néhány elsődleges forrásból vett példa segítségével bemutatom, hogy
hogyan tükrözte a spanyol (esetenként katalán) nyelvű szóhasználat a „normális”-tól eltérőnek tartott képességekkel,
adottságokkal rendelkező személyek (gyermekek) megítélésének változásait a középkortól napjainkig.
Western culture lives in fear of wild nature, both external and internal, writes ecotherapist Mary-Jayne Rust. How can we find a way of working with nature in this consumerist age?
In today’s business environment, there is constant need to look for new opportunities. The risk of doing business as usual means failure. How can we take advantage of new emerging technologies? We get overload of new products and services, but it is not easy to see the real trends.
In this lecture we look at how to spot trends and how to recognize shift in people’s behaviour. We also explore some tactics we can apply to find new business models.
TDWI Keynote: Outside In - The Future of Business Intelligence innovationmark madsen
The real future of business intelligence rather than the retro future we've been building, and where to look for inspiration and innovation in the future.
WEF predicts automation will displace 75 million jobs globally by 2022 but create 133 million new ones. Those in kindergarten today will graduate in 2030. What will work look like? What skills will be most in demand? We identify the most and least important skills for success in a world driven by automation and human-machine collaboration.
Why do business platforms beat products every time? This is my keynote at EMERCE eDay. We cover changes in global brands, how feedback effects work, how innovation is different, and examples of coming platforms.
Inspiration is fine, but above all, innovation is really a managem.docxjaggernaoma
Inspiration is fine, but above all, innovation is really a management process
Ask most people who invented the lightbulb, and they will promptly provide the wrong answer: Thomas Alva Edison. Truth is, the famous inventor's 1879 debut of his incandescent light trailed others by decades. So why does he get all the glory? Mostly because of what he did next, notes Andrew Hargadon, author of How Breakthroughs Happen: The Surprising Truth about How Companies Innovate. To get his creation to the masses, Edison and his team of engineers in Menlo Park, N.J., spent years building the entire electric system, from light sockets and safety fuses to generating facilities and the wiring network. Only then did the electric light flare into the innovation that lit the world.
In short, Edison beat all his predecessors at one crucial task: managing the whole process of innovation, from light-bulb moment to final product. Today that task is scarcely easier than it was 125 years ago. Sure, it's easy to get lucky once in a while. The real trick is doing it over and over again. "Managing innovation means cultivating an environment where lightning can strike twice," says Paul Saffo, research director at the think tank Institute for the Future. "It's extraordinarily difficult."
To hard-headed business people, innovation often seems as predictable as a rainbow and as manageable as a butterfly. Penicillin, Teflon, Post-it Notes -- they sprang from such accidents as moldy Petri dishes, a failed coolant, and a mediocre glue. It's no wonder so many executives throw up their hands. "Our approach has always been very simple, which is to try not to manage innovation," shrugs Silicon Valley venture capitalist Michael Moritz, a partner with Sequoia Capital. "We prefer to just let the market manage it."
Yet even in the Darwinian chaos of Silicon Valley, innovations are made, not born. The world's most innovative companies, from Procter & Gamble and Toyota Motor to Apple Computer and Edison's own General Electric, make their own luck. They plunge ahead on new ideas even though they know most will fail. "You have to go down blind alleys," says Jeffrey P. Bezos, founder and chief executive of pioneer online retailer Amazon.com Inc. "But every once in a while you go down an alley and it opens up into this huge, broad avenue. That makes all the blind alleys worthwhile."
"COMMODITY HELL"
Problem is, a lot of forces today conspire against innovative products getting to market. Small outfits that are often the most innovative get short shrift because buyers aren't sure they can deliver or even survive to keep supporting their products. And for large corporations, there's the "innovator's dilemma" coined by Harvard Business School professor Clayton Christensen. By catering to their best customers with increasingly advanced and more expensive products -- a seemingly sensible approach -- successful companies ignore or even discourage less profitable low-end products. But as startups.
APD along with partners IBM and Australia Post, hosted ‘Best of the Next’, an event which brought industry leaders and clients together to discuss innovation in the face of digital disruption, and what businesses can do to capitalise on these trends.
The topics discussed by APD’s own Chief Transformation Officer, Inês Almeida and CEO, Scott Player included:
• Artificial Intelligence: Hopes and Fears in Perspective
• The Impact of 5G and Greater Connectivity
• Privacy and security after the Facebook uproar: self-sovereign ID, advertising and Blockchain
Guest speakers Tung Nguyen and Cameron Gough from Australia Post presented their latest innovation around Digital ID.
For more information visit: http://www.apdgroup.com/bestofthenext/
16 Social Media Trends for 2010 by Agent WildfireSean Moffitt
Sean Moffitt from Agent Wildfre (www.agentwildfire.com) takes a look into social media's crystal ball and makes some smart bets on how this child "social media" will play in teh schoolyard in 2010
A story about giants, tactics and what’s nextConny Svensson
The PC era is behind us, Microsoft was the clear winner. But how about the new “Post-PC” era, who is the winner, or maybe we can have many winners? Google as the market-share leader in the form of Android, or Apple as the profit-share leader, the mighty Samsung which seems unstoppable or is Microsoft finally turning around and taking back the enterprise in the mobile space. It’s still early on in this fight for dominance, and the weapons are manifold: patents, marketing, tech specs, FUD, eco-systems, cloud, AI, customer data, apps and of course money. And what is the next big thing? The smartphones and tablets was just the beginning, will wearables and IoT be the next step, how about robotics? And how long until we reach the singularity? Many questions, hopefully some answers or at least a discussion about the current state and a possible future.
Knomatic CTO, Juston Western, presents on key takeaways from SXSW Interactive 2015. Video of presentation also available online at http://youtu.be/t8g2OfX87tQ
10 Things Every Entrepreneur Needs to Know About Artificial IntelligenceChristopher Mohritz
A.I. is transforming our world in unprecedented ways and at unprecedented speeds, presenting an endless stream of opportunities for savvy entrepreneurs.
Apple will create a new car industry. Here is my visual overview of the rumors, the facts, the naysayers, and -- very possibly -- the design of the iCar. For more on how to make presentations like this, please visit www.napkinacademy.com
Similar to Innovation and punditry_web_2.0_final (20)
Introduction to the Compassionate Systems Framework in SchoolsGlenn Klith Andersen
In education, where interest in social and emotional learning (SEL), mindfulness, and systems thinking is growing, we find both an opportunity and a need to develop models of thinking and teaching that prepare students to better understand and respond to the systems to which these issues belong. We draw from established SEL models, together with developments in the emerging field of complexity science and the study of systems, to establish a framework—what we call a “compassionate systems” framework—for building a cognitive and affective foundation for global citizenship. This framework conceptualizes compassion as an essentially systemic property of mind: to cultivate compassion is to be able to appreciate the systemic forces that influence people’s feelings, thoughts and actions.
3. “ All progress depends on the unreasonable man” - George Bernard Shaw “ Human salvation lies in the hands of the creatively maladjusted” - Martin Luther King
4. “ when the train of history hits a curve, the intellectuals fall off.” - Karl Marx
5.
6. Mckinsey : US mobile subscribers Source: American Heritage Magazine - http://www.americanheritage.com/articles/magazine/it/2007/3/2007_3_8.shtml forecast actual 1986 forecast for 2000
8. the folly of predictions: tetlock study hundreds of experts. 80,000+ “expert” forecasts & 20+ years results: experts about the same accuracy as dart-throwing monkeys Source: http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/12/05/051205crbo_books1
9. "Cynics never do the impossible, achieve the improbable, take on the inadvisable. Hope is only path to extraordinary success." INSPIRATIONAL TWEET:
13. Could McKinsey or an analyst have predicted Twitter? Predicted 140 chars as “culture assessment tool”?
14.
15.
16.
17. Innovation according to the press Apple Google Microsoft IBM Toyota Amazon LG Electronics BYD GE Sony Samsung Intel Ford RIM VW HP Tata BMW Coca-Cola Nintendo 1-10 11-20 Facebook Amazon Apple Google Huawei First Solar PG&E Novartis Walmart HP Hulu Netflix Nike Intel Spotify BYD Cisco Systems IBM GE Disney 1-10 11-20 Business Week Fast Company What has surprised you? Source: Businessweek, Fast Company
18. winners take (almost) all =investment viability 5 years out, the group’s market cap has grown… Starting Industry Structure But leaders far exceed the also-rans
19. New Computing Cycle Characteristics 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Devices / Users (MM in Log Scale) Computing Growth Drivers Over Time, 1960 – 2020E Note: PC installed base reached 100MM in 1993, cellphone / Internet users reached 1B in 2002 / 2005 respectively; Source: ITU, Mark Lipacis, Morgan Stanley Research. 1 10 100 1000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Minicomputer 10+ PC 100+ Mainframe 1+ Mobile/Gadget Internet 10000? Desktop Internet 1000+
20. The old don’t innovate – the new “create the future” Mainframes 1960s Personal Computing 1980s Desktop Internet Computing 1990s Mobile Internet Computing 2000s Mini Computing 1970s New Winners New Winners New Winners New Winners Note: Winners from 1950s to 1980s based on Fortune 500 rankings (revenue-based), desktop Internet winners based on wealth created from 1995 to respective peak market capitalizations. Source: Factset, Fortune, Morgan Stanley Research. Microsoft Cisco Intel Apple Oracle EMC Dell Compaq Google AOL eBay Yahoo! Amazon.com Digital Equipment Data General HP Prime Computervision Wang Labs IBM NCR Control Data Sperry Honeywell Burroughs New Winners Facebook Twitter Apple (exception?) ?? ??
21. as surely as... 1985: NOT a PC in every home 1990: NO email for grandma 1995: NOT the internet 2000: NO pervasive mobile, seacrh 2005: NO social media / iphone 2008: NO Goldman/Morgan bankruptcy? 2010+: reason for optimism
22. What’s next? discovery content curation eBooks/interactive content HTML 5… Landline phone Standalone radio Portable DVD Low-end Cameras/ camcorders MP3 players GPS Portable gaming Voice recorders Translator/ dictionary Iphone Ipad Android Existing static products… Difficult to predict the future, when innovation is the name of the game recommendations Reputation
23. what will it be? Taste graphs curation vs. creation of online content privacy vs. personalization where will HTML 5 lead? discovery vs. recommendation curation of goods in the real world? who do you trust? Friends, experts, crowd? mvp with rapid iteration vs. better game play & production value?
26. “ The fine line separating the delusional from the visionaries amongst us is often not foresight, but rather hindsight.” Ben Semel
27.
28. “ It is not because things are difficult that we do not dare, it is because we do not dare that they are difficult.” - Seneca “Try and fail, but don't fail to try.” - Stephen Kaggwa “Courage is doing what you're afraid to do. There can be no courage unless you're scared.” - Eddie Rickenbacker “Only those who dare fail greatly can achieve greatly.” - Robert F. Kennedy “You will face many defeats in your life, but never let yourself be defeated.” - Maya Angelou The willingness to fail gives us the freedom to succeed
29.
30. to predict the future, invent it! -Alan Kay [email_address]
Editor's Notes
ninakix ninakix by vkhosla Taking developers hostage #SFriot 1 Nov Favorite Retweet Reply darian314 Darian Shirazi by vkhosla If SFPD has any trouble getting around the city, I hear Ubercab is available. #sfscanner from SoMa, San Francisco 1 Nov ninakix ninakix by vkhosla Painting solar panels black #SFriot 1 Nov dsrsleepy Sleepy by vkhosla If SFPD wised up, they'd read the #sfriot hash tag for "I'm about to light this here trash can on fire at ______" 1 Nov rembry Raymond Embry IV by vkhosla Do I get a riot bage for checking into a riot? #SFRiot 1 Nov levie Aaron Levie by vkhosla If you run into any great developers at the #SFRiot , please send them our way. 1 Nov gaberivera Gabe Rivera by vkhosla "... 10-4 ... If we can't disperse them, let's gradually push them all into the Tenderloin" #sfscanner #sfriot 1 Nov BetoIII Beto Juarez III by vkhosla RT @ ninakix : Setting fire to compost; using fair trade matches #SFriot 1 Nov donnyo Don Otvos by vkhosla I'm carrying my groceries in *plastic bags* #SFRiot from Forest Hill Extension, San Francisco 1 Nov _Ame_Rican_Kid_ Blog by AmeRican Kid by vkhosla Leaving the milk out overnight #SFRiot 1 Nov TravTurn Travis Turney by vkhosla The #SFriot is a GOP plot to jail all the pro #Prop19 voters and boot Pelosi out of office! 1 Nov _Ame_Rican_Kid_ Blog by AmeRican Kid by vkhosla Sending twitpics of me eating meat to PETa #SFRiot 1 Nov cameo Cameo Wood by vkhosla I'm in the middle of a riot, and I'm at my house! #sfriot (@ Riot w/ 2 others) http://4sq.com/bGIUAl from Nob Hill, San Francisco 1 Nov jody_beth Jody by vkhosla New word for when L.A.-hating Bay Area residents get a riot of their own: HYPHOCRISY #enlightenment #superiority #sfriot 1 Nov alexia Alexia Tsotsis by vkhosla Wow, all this fuss over a football game! #SFRiot 1 Nov dsrsleepy Sleepy by vkhosla Twitter is officialy more entertaining than anything on TV right now. #sfscanner #sfriot 1 Nov davidu David Ulevitch by vkhosla If Prop19 were already law then all these rioters would be at home waiting for Dominos to deliver some pizza. :-) #sfriot #Sfgiants 1 Nov nicorn7 Nicholas Cornelius by vkhosla cnn.com has nothing about the #SFRiot Looks like twitter wins again? #sfscanner 1 Nov rcymozart Robert Yocum by vkhosla .@ socialscope they just want a public beta. #nothingtoseehere #sfriot 1 Nov susanbeebe Susan Beebe by vkhosla Only in SF!! Haha!! :D >>> RT @ Stammy : some guy in the #sfriot is holding a light saber... http://bit.ly/9TxXmn 1 Nov chris_stevenson Chris Stevenson by vkhosla Looking for an iPad enabled live feed of #SFRiot . The revolution must be being streamed somewhere ! from here 1 Nov jproulx Jesse Proulx by vkhosla Letting my dog poop on the grass and not picking it up #SFRiot 1 Nov dailymobilenews Daily Mobile News by vkhosla Daily Mobile News: SF Giants win World Series, ensuing riots hit Foursquare, Twitter and Ustream #SFRiot http://bit.ly/aZvHDS #smartphone 1 Nov vkhosla Vinod Khosla RT @ Mitzula How hard is it to light Hybrids and Electric Cars on fire??? #SFRiot 1 Nov vkhosla Vinod Khosla SF Riotous RT @ gaberivera I just threw a recyclable into the regular, non-recyclable trash bin #SFRiot 1 Nov johnmaeda johnmaeda by vkhosla Why institutions matter (= they provide safe environments in which to fail). via Malcolm Gladwell. http://risd.cc/chOAbO 1 Nov vkhosla Vinod Khosla @ @ chloenighthorse I like it