INDIARedefining progress
Did You know that India.......Is the largest democracy in the world
Has one of the most ancient civilizations, with a history of scientific enquiry.
Has never invaded another country ,yet the 3rd largest armed country, and even a nuclear weapon power.
Is world’s 4th largest economy
Has 29 states; 325 languages; 1652 dialects and many civilisations.
Has 2nd largest pool of technical manpower in the world.
Produces 50,000 doctors, 350,000 engineers and 800,000 MBAs every year.India…a unique, very complex story In India,an Italian lady born a Catholic (Sonia Gandhi)stepped aside so a Sikh (Manmohan Singh) could be sworn in as Prime Minister by a Muslim President (Abdul Kalam)to lead a nation that’s 82% HinduCan you cite another country with such diversity and tolerance??
Even though the world hasjust discovered it, the Indiagrowth story is not newIt has been going on for 25 years
What is the India story?
28 years of  high growthAverage annual GDP growth(%)(%)108.986.063.541.0201900-19501950-19801980-20022002-2007
Literacy is rising(%)100808065526040172001950199020002010 PSource: Census of India (2001)
(m)0The rise of a strong middle class makes it a consumption driven economy32%22%8%400368300200220100652010 19802000Source: The Consuming Class, National Council of Applied Economic Research, 2002
India is now the 4th largest economyIt will overtake Japan between 2012 and 2014 to become the 3rd largest
The India model is unique
Drivers of growthIndiaDomesticServicesConsumptionHigh tech, capital intensive industryEast and S.E. Asia Exports Manufacturing Investment Low tech, labour intensive industry
Implications of India model ‘Domestically led’ means:Insulation from global downturnsLess volatilityComing out of the global crisis     faster
33%59%42%64%IndiaIndiaChinaChina41%U.S.Europe58%45%BrazilImplication of India model – Consumption ledPeople Friendly:Consumption as % of GDPPeople Friendly, Less inequality: Gini IndexWill India become the next  big consuming economy after the U.S.?
India’s success is market-led whereas China’s is state inducedThe entrepreneur is at thecentre of the Indian model
India has a vibrant private space 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign  institutional investment125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software development to India2% bad loans in Indian banks (v~20% in China)80% credit goes to private sector (v~10% in China)
Understanding India’s economic successMental revolution among the young“I want to be Bilgay”  “Banianisation” of society300+ TV channels; 65 news channelsThe rise of Hinglish
 “By 2010 India will have world’s largest number of English speakers”“When 300 million Indians speak a word in a certain way, that will be the way to speak it.”Professor David CrystalCambridge Encyclopedia of the English Language
Key government reformsOpened economy to trade and investmentDismantled controls Lowered tariffsDropped tax ratesBroke public sector monopolies
Where the government infrastructure fails…..….. Innovation kicks in
Business in 21st century IndiaYet Another Point Of View
First …the bad newsInadequate infrastructure
 roads
 ports and airports
 power
Labour productivity issues
Some archaic laws  -eg. Land ,labour
Socialist hangovers –or posturings
Intermittent fundamentalism issues…..and some good newsSecular tolerance-2nd largest Muslim population
Stable and sharp economic growth
Well established banking and a judicial system
Very young population-that means hands ,and demand
Developing into a consumption economy
Changing bureaucracy
Declining trade unionism
Federal and unitary amalgamWhy was it this way….The Hindu DNA-acceptance and karma
A few hundred years of subjugation
And then by politicos
Erosion of self esteem
Complex governance issuesAnd what has changed……..Intellect-the main Indian export
Abundance of knowledge resources- and creation of the arbitrage opportunity
Global acceptance of the Indian mind

INDIA

Editor's Notes

  • #21 -why yet another STORY-this story begins in 1947 – the brits leave-my 28 year story and the changes in india-india through my eyes-we’ve proven that god exists