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Improving decision making in crisis
1. The document discusses improving decision making during crises by leveraging human strengths, mitigating decision derailers, and taking mitigating actions. 2. It recommends leveraging cognitive diversity and critical thinking to gather diverse perspectives and test solutions. It also suggests recognizing common decision derailers like confirmation bias and escalating commitment. 3. The key steps are to avoid committing prematurely to decisions or information, consider multiple options for as long as possible, and revisit decisions frequently as the situation evolves. Stimulating skills like flexibility and open-mindedness can also help improve crisis decision making.
Improving decision making in crisis
- 1. 1 PRESENTED BY: KODS SHILI
- 2. Plan III.Improving decisionmaking in crisis :the steps 2 I.Introduction II.Decision making : the bases 1)Leveraging the human strengths 2)Mitigating the decision derailers 3)Mitigating actions 4)Stimulating the skills
- 3. Introduction THE BELIEF Logical + Rational decision Intended results achieved A.SMITH ( 1776): Economic choices are made in a rational manner Most decisions are not logical or well analyzed Individual’s decision making is based on consistent and predictable behaviours 3
- 4. Intuitive approach Cognitiveapproach Introduction Structured Analytic Disciplined More effort Easy way Cognitively lazy ones Less effort 4
- 5. Timeliness Quality Characteristicsof effective decisions Introduction Respect of Decision timeline Awareness of human behaviour Understanding of the decision- making environment 5
- 6. How to makedecisions in crisis ? 6
- 7. II.Decision making :the bases OODA Loop (John Boyd) 7
- 8. II.Decision making :the bases 8
- 9. II.Decision making :the bases Cynefin sense-making framework (Snowden & CO) 9 UN-ORDERED AREA ORDERED AREA DISORDER
- 10. III.Improving decision makingin crisis: the steps 1)Leveraging the human strengths 10 Human strengths Cognitive diversity Critical thinking + information + diverse perspectives + problem-solving techniques + effectiveness Asking the hard questions Demanding supporting data Testing logic & rationality + potential solutions
- 11. How to palliatedecision derailers ? 11
- 12. 2)Mitigating the decisionderailers Altered perspectives •framing •Compelling stories •Recent events Organizational speed bumps •Excessive optimism •overconfidence Appeal to authority •Sunflower reflex •Champion bias Resistance •Escalating commitment •Anchoring •Loss aversion Information pathologies •Confirmation bias •Information bias •WYSIATI •Failure to communicate 12
- 13. 13 How toreduce the impact of decision derailers during crisis ?
- 14. Take advantage ofcognitive diversity and Commit to critical thinking Learn to recognize and understand the decision derailers Do not commit to information or decisions before necessary and do not delay decisions beyond timeline Identify the largest number of options practical and keep them open as long as practicable Revisit decision as often as the evolving situation indicates 14 3)Mitigating actions
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