Joachim von Braun, Director General, (IFPRI) 30th April 2009, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C.

1. Implications of the Financial Crisis
for Developing Countries
Joachim von Braun
International Food Policy Research Institute
Introduction to a panel discussion at IFPRI April 30 2009
30,

2. Food prices: higher levels and the spike
800 Price spike
Corn Wheat Rice
600
on
US$/to
400
200
0
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009 Source: IFPRI, Data from FAO 2009 and IMF 2009.

3. Food and financial crises linkages in
developing countries
Food crisis Financial
crisis
risis
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009

4. Recession scenarios 2005-2020
2005-
Scenarios
baseline: econ. growth as in past years
1: R
1 Recession: econ. growth f ll by 2-3%
i th falls b 2-3%,
agric. investment maintained
2: Recession: econ. growth falls by 2-3%,
2-
agric. investment reduced
g
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009

5. Recession Scenarios with IMPACT model
275
250 Non-recession
Non-
Maize price
Same-investment
Same- (left
(l ft ) 250
200 Low-
Low-investment
225
on
US$/to
150
200
100 Malnourished children (right)
175
Million
50 150
n
0 125
2005 2010 2015 2020
Recession scenarios with and without agric
agric.
investment action
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009 Source: von Braun, Rosegrant, IFPRI IMPACT, Oct. 2008.

6. Financial crisis and depression - issues
for discussion
Impacts on / linkages among…
- Macro-economic (exchange rates, inflation,
Macro-
fiscal)
- Growth, incl. rural and agricultural growth
- Employment, migration, and remittances
- Trade
- Finance credit, investment (domestic FDI)
Finance, credit (domestic,
- Poverty and food security
Regional and country specific differences and
transmissions
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009

7. Financial crisis and depression - issues
for discussion
What policy implications?
- Stimulus packages,
- Stabilization,
- Regulation,
- Social protection
Who what?
- Government
- Corporate
- Aid agencies
g
- NGOs
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009