Revolutions and paradigm shifts represent the conclusion of exponential growth breaking through impediments that stand in front of it. These impediments take the form of business models, economic policies, political system, and the very fabric of society. As the first and second industrial revolutions show, when this growth brings new challenges to nearly all aspects of society. Utilizing scenario planning to accommodate for the uncertainty fundamental with these shifts, the authors have isolated key drivers and through them created four unique scenarios. Each of these scenarios has shown the interplay between access to technology, quality of education to imagine what the potential impact of new production technologies will be on society. Presented in Yonsei GSIS Academic Conference.

1. Impact of Technological Trends
Scenario Planning the Next
Technological Paradigm
Eric Watson & Erdem Tokmakoglu
Yonsei Graduate School of International Studies
14.11.2014
NOV
14

2. 2
Presentation Timeline
Future Trends
2
Revolutions
3
Technologies
6
Methodology
7 91 4 5 8
Scenario One Scenario Two Scenario Three Scenario Four Strategies Conclusion

3. 3Paradigm Shift
“A specific paradigm (a method or approach to solving a problem, e.g., shrinking transistors on an integrated
circuit as an approach to making more powerful computers) provides exponential growth until the method
exhausts its potential. When this happens, a paradigm shift (i.e., a fundamental change in the approach)
occurs, which enables exponential growth to continue.”
Ray Kurzweil
Future Trends

4. 4Past Technological Revolutions
“…Gunpowder blew up the knightly class the compass discovered the world market and founded the
colonies and the printing press was the instrument of Protestantism and the regeneration of science in
general; the most powerful lever for creating the intellectual prerequisites.”
Karl Marx
First
Industrial
Revolution
Second
Industrial
Revolution
Third
Industrial
Revolution?
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Future Trends

5. First Industrial Revolution 5
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Future Trends

6. Second Industrial Revolution 6
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Future Trends

7. 7Technologies Driving The Next
Paradigm Shift
What will drive the future?
3D Printing &
Robotics
Big Data,
AI & IoT
Renewable
Energies
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Future Trends

8. 83D Printing & Robotics
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Future Trends

9. 93D Printing & Robotics
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Future Trends

10. 10Big Data, AI & IoT
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Future Trends

11. 11Renewable Energy
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Future Trends

12. 12
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Future Trends
“…must show how a solution is produced by the interactions of people each of
whom possesses only partial knowledge.”
F. A. Hayek
“When it comes to mobilizing human capability, communities outperform
bureaucracies.”
Gary Hamel

13. 13
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Future Trends
Platform Creators
Existing shareholders of capital or general shareholders with the largest
amount of ownership (from now platform creators) are the ones with the
existing lobby power or capital leading this knowledge of being.

14. 14
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Future Trends
Platform Creators
Existing shareholders of capital or general shareholders with the largest
amount of ownership (from now platform creators) are the ones with the
existing lobby power or capital leading this knowledge of being.

15. 15Methodology
“A scenario is a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future state of then
(sic) world. It is not a forecast; rather, each scenario is one alternative image of how the future can unfold.”
Forecast Prediction
Scenario
Planning
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Future Trends

16. 16Methodology
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Future Trends

17. 17Scenario Planning: Creation
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Decide a Time Horizon
Identify Givens & Drivers
Deciding Endpoints
Scenario Narratives
Scenario Planning
Outcomes
1
2
3
4
5
6
Future Trends

18. 18Scenario Planning: Impact of
Technological Trends
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Hayek’s Knowledge of Being
Fallacies of Central Planning
Free Market Mechanisms
Brain Power Cannot be Replicated
Maximize Intellectual Capacity
Efficient Education
Inefficient Education
Open Access to Technology
Restricted Access to Technology
Future Trends

19. 19Scenario Planning: Impact of
Technological Trends
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Future Trends

20. 20Scenario Planning: Impact of
Technological Trends
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Decentralized Production Means O O X X
Decentralized Energy Means O O X X
Data Neturality O O X X
Lax Intellectual Property Laws O X X X
Creative, Analytical & Innovative Labor Force O X O X
Future Trends

21. 21Scenario Planning: Impact of
Technological Trends
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Future Trends

22. 22Scenario Planning: Impact of
Technological Trends
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
SCENARIO FOUR
SCENARIO TWO
SCENARIO THREE
SCENARIO ONE
Future Trends

23. 23Scenario 1: Road to Utopia
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Future Trends
2014
Q4-2014
Patents Expire,
3D printing
takes off
Q4-2016
New
technologies in
US classrooms
2016
2/3rd of jobs
require post-
secondary edu.
2020
Cost of
solarpower
breaks even
2025
CC licensing is
enshrined
2030
Platform
building, lead-
user innovation
2040
Discussions on
minimum living
wage increase
2050

24. 24Scenario 1: Road to Utopia
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
3D Printing
Relaxed Intellectual Properties
Decentralization of Firms
Decentralization of Production Means
“A Click Away” Producers
Education Programs Succeed
Online Education
Crowd Services
Decentralization of Energy
Full Employment
Future Trends

25. 25Scenario 2: Polarization
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Future Trends
2014
Q4-2014
Patents Expire,
3D printing
takes off
Q4-2016
New
technologies in
US classrooms
2016
2/3rd of jobs
require post-
secondary edu.
2020
First signs of a
widening social
attainment gap
2025
25% of
industrial tasks
are automated
2025-2035
Only select
professions are
viable
2040-2050
1/4 of OECD
pop. is over 65
2050
Key Departure from Scenario 1

26. 26Scenario 2: Polarization
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
3D Printing & Robotics
1 over 99%
Market Polarization
Decentralization of Production Means
Quicker Trends
Austerity Measures Continue
Online Education
Crowd Services
Conservative Population
Dominant Wealthy People
Future Trends

27. 27Scenario 3: Platform
Bottlenecks
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Future Trends
2014
Q4-2014
Patents Expire,
3D printing
takes off
Q4-2016
New
technologies in
US classrooms
2016
2/3rd of jobs
require post-
secondary edu.
2020
Firms increase
new
protections
2025-2030
Innovative
users and firms
appear
2030
Regulations are
finally
restructured
2040-Future
Belated
approach to
Scenario 1
2050
Key Departure from Scenario 1

28. 28Scenario 3: Platform Bottlenecks
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Rent Seeking
Move Towards
Scenario 1
Move Towards
Scenario 4
Restricted
Intellectual
Properties
Resistance to
Adapt
Future Trends

29. 29Scenario 4: Road to Dystopia
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Future Trends
2014
Q4-2014
Patents Expire,
3D printing
takes off
Q4-2016
New
technologies in
US classrooms
2016
2/3rd of jobs
require post-
secondary edu.
2020
First signs of a
widening social
attainment gap
2020-2050
Powers of 1%
become
“enshrined”
2020-2040
40% of Worlds
population live
in cities
2040-2050
Growth of
mega-cities/
regions
2050
Key Departure from Scenario 1

30. 30Scenario 4: Road to Dystopia
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Extreme
Market
Polarization
City States &
Mega Regions
Bowl of Cities
3D Printing &
Robotics
1 Over 99%
Future Trends

31. 31Strategies for 2050
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
1. Encourage Creativity and Innovation
2. Educational Fundings
5. Producers
Should Foster
6. Shorter Life Cycles
7. Encourage Innovative Ecosystems
3. Restructuring Intellectual Properties
4. Remove Restrictions
Future Trends

32. 32Conclusion
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
Scenario Two
Future Trends

33. 33Conclusion
Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies
FOSTER
COLLABORATION
INTELLECTUAL
CAPACITIES ARE
IMPORTANT
$ POLICY
LEVERAGES
REQUIRED
2050
Future Trends

34. QUESTIONS &
ANSWERS
Go ahead. Don‘t hesitate.

35. THANK
YOU
For your attention!