June 2021 Equity Update: Global and Indian Market Performance and Outlook
1. EQUITY UPDATE
June 2021
Data Source: Crisil Research; * Data till May 31, 2021; CPI-Consumer Pric e Index
Data Source: Crisil Research; * Data till May 31, 2021, PE- Price to Earnings;
IMF â International Monetary Fund; OECD: Organisation for Economic
Cooperation& Development
Global Markets May- 21 (%) Current PE 10 Yr Average
US 1.9 26.2 16.3
UK 0.8 51.4 19.2
Japan 0.2 20.3 20.2
Hong Kong 1.5 13.7 10.8
Singapore (1.7) 80.0 12.6
China 0.6 14.4 8.5
INDEX PERFORMANCE:.Indian benchmark
indices S&P BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 surged
6.5% each in May 2021 â their biggest May
month gain since 2014 led by a steady
decline in daily Covid-19 cases domestically
and strong global cues
INFLATION: CPI eased to 4.29% in April 2021,
the lowest in three months, compared with
5.52% in March 2021 due to the fall in food
prices
Global MarketUpdate
Indian MarketUpdate
Domestic Markets May-21 (%) Current PE 10 Yr Average
S&P BSE Sensex 6.5 31.9 20.5
NSE Nifty 6.5 30.3 21.0
S&P BSE Auto 8.6 NA 20.8
S&P BSE Bankex 8.1 25.1 18.9
S&P BSE Capital Goods 11.1 100.1 29.0
S&P BSE Consumer Durables 3.3 76.8 35.4
S&P BSE FMCG 5.0 36.6 39.1
S&P BSE Healthcare 4.3 38.4 29.4
S&P BSE IT 4.9 28.9 19.5
S&P BSE Metals 5.9 13.9 12.6
S&P BSE Mid Cap 7.1 46.7 27.2
S&P BSE Oil & Gas 9.8 9.9 12.0
S&P BSE PSU 13.0 11.7 12.6
S&P BSE Realty 6.5 31.9 20.5
DOMESTIC & GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS:
The release of upbeat domestic economic
data, including a 22.4% growth in the March
2021 Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and
ease in the March 2021 retail and wholesale
inflation, also supported sentiments
In May, the RBI injected Rs 500 billion as
emergency liquidity support to boost health
infrastructure and additional loan
restructuring schemes The RBI also said that
it will transfer surplus of Rs 991.22 billion to
the government. (Source: RBI)
.
⢠United States (US) real gross domestic product
(GDP) grew 6.4% on-year in the first quarter of
2021, unchanged from the previous estimate
released last month, and higher than the 4.3%
growth seen in the last quarter of 2020
⢠Eurozone GDP fell 1.8% on-year in the first quarter
of 2021, but slower than the 4.9% decrease seen
in the fourth quarter of 2020
⢠United Kingdom (UK) GDP shrank 1.5% in the first
quarter of 2021 compared with the 1.3% growth in
the fourth quarter of 2020. The economy
expanded 2.1% on-month in March 2021
⢠Japanâs GDP contracted 5.1% on-year in the first
quarter of 2021 compared with the 11.7% growth
in the fourth quarter of 2020
⢠Source: CRISIL Research
2. DOMESTIC & GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS:
Markets were also supported by tracking
similar gains in global markets after
factoring in strong US labour data,
indicating an uptick in employment and
economic activity, and as the US GDP rose
6.4% in the first quarter of 2021, unchanged
from the previous estimate, and higher than
the 4.3% growth seen in the last quarter of
2020
However, further rise in the market was
capped as investors remained cautious
ahead of the US Fed monetary policy
meeting June. Improving US economic
indicators raised worries among investors
that the policymakers may taper the bond
buying programme earlier than expected
Indian MarketUpdate
Outlook & Triggers
Major global indices continued their upward trend for the 2nd
consecutive month except for few Asian countries. Positive performance
sustained as major developed economies are well past their COVID-19 peaks, targeted and on-going vaccination drives have been
implemented successfully as a result of which there is a decent pick-up in demand and subsequently inflation. Indian Equity Markets (Nifty
50 Index) surged 6.5% during the month due to decline in COVID-19 cases, ease of lockdown like restrictions in some states and good
earnings season. However, markets may remain vigilant and take further cues from the outcome of upcoming June Federal Open Market
Committee i.e. FOMC meeting.( Source: CRISIL)
Globally, Developed Market (DM) rally was led by Europe with a significant rise in demand especially pent-up household demand post
COVID second wave. Large US fiscal support too, have helped DM. China performed well despite weak economic activities as Chinese
Yuan (CNY) appreciated against the US Dollar and the Hang Seng Index saw some adjustments during the month to better reflect market
dynamics. This was seen as a positive. Asian countries like Taiwan, Singapore, and Indonesia underperformed due to COVID resurgence
and slow vaccine roll-out. ( Source: CRISIL)
Indian Markets did well as investors rejoiced moderation in COVID-19 cases, good earnings season and lifting up of restrictions in some
states. Continued liquidity support by Global Central Banks, firm global markets and demand also aided positive sentiments. Domestic
Institutional Investors (DIIs) were more active than the Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs). The RBI announced several liquidity measures to
help banks support healthcare, infrastructure and small borrowers impacted by 2nd
COVID wave. The key triggers for Indian markets going
forward can be 1) any policy measures, 2) the pace and quality of vaccination drives, 3) further lockdowns in certain parts restricting
mobility and economic activities and 4) pace of implementation of Govt. reforms measures mentioned in the budget to revive economy.
On the macro front, India released its 4QFY21 & FY21 GDP data which came in at 1.6% and -7.3% respectively much better than estimated.
The April Composite PMI (Purchasing Managerâs Index) data held steady above the 50 mark at 55.4. April CPI inflation declined to 4.3%
from 5.5% in March. March IIP rose 22.4% in March on account of favorable base effects compared to last year. ( Source: CRISIL)
In sectoral trends, Power, Capital Goods, etc. were key contributors, while Telecom was a key laggard. (Source: NSE)
We believe, economic recovery though delayed continues to remain on track as the domestically, Govt. and RBI are taking active measures
to spur growth through structural reforms and globally, economies continue to support Growth with various fiscal & monetary stimulus
measures. With developed economies reporting strong set of activity numbers, demand recovery is expected which may benefit Indian
exports. The current macro-economic scenario is much more conducive for a Business Cycle Recovery as we are at nascent stage of
economic cycle and sentiments too are not euphoric. We continue to remain positive on sectors which are closely linked to the economy
like Banks, Capital Goods, Infrastructure, Metals & Mining, etc. We believe Indian markets may recover and do well until the following
triggers play out - US acknowledging inflation & in conclusion pausing stimulus and US Treasury Yields reaching 2%.
Flows Mayâ 21 Aprilâ 21 Mar â 21
FIIs (Net Purchases / Sales) (Rs cr) 5,361 (12,810) 18,653
MFs (Net Purchases / Sales) (Rs cr) 105 5,526 2,476
Earnings Growth (%) FY21E FY22E FY23E
Sensex 10.3 29.9 19.7
Macro Indicators Latest Update Previous Update
GDP (YoY%)
1.6%
(4QFY21)
0.4%
(3QFY21)
IIP (YoY%)
22.4%
(Mar)
-3.6%
(Feb)
Crude ($ bbl)
69.32
(May 31)
67.25
(April 30)
Core Sector Growth (YoY%)
56.1%
(April 2021)
11.4%
(Mar 2021)
Trade Deficit ($ mn)
-15,100
(Mar 2021)
-13,930
(Feb 2021)
Current Account Deficit ($ bn) -1.7% (3QFY21) 15.5 (2QFY21)
FII Holding in Indian Equities (%)#
23.1 (3QFY21) 22.5 (3QFY21)
Note: # FII hldg includesADR/GDR (BSE500 Index); Data Source: Crisil Research; * Data till May 31, 2021; CAD: Current AccountDeficit; GDP: Gross
Domestic Product, IIP: India Industrial ProductionFII: ForeignInstitutional Investors; MF-Mutual Fund; E- Estimate
3. Equity Valuation Index
Our Recommendation
None of the aforesaid recommendations are based on any assumptions. These are purely for reference and the investors are requested to consult their financial advisors
Equity valuation index is calculated by assigning equal weights to Price to Earnings (PE), Price to book (PB), G-Sec*PE and Market Cap to Gross Domestic Product
(GDP)
`
Hence, this phase may require investment portfolios to be highly nimble while giving due importance to overall
asset allocation. Therefore, we recommend adapting the âABCDâ investment framework with an aim to benefit
from fast changing macros and to manage volatility. Asset Allocation schemes: A â ICICI Prudential Asset
Allocation Strategies (ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FOF) & Multi Asset Strategies (ICICI Prudential Multi-
Asset Fund), B â ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund, C â ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund, D â
Strategies which are available at Discount to broader markets - ICICI Prudential Focused Equity Fund, ICICI
Prudential Value Discovery Fund, ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund, ICICI Prudential Dividend Yield Equity
Fund and ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund. Investing in these schemes over long term may provide a thrust to
your wealth creation journey.
Our Recommendation
Allocation between Equity, Debt & Other Asset Classes
ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund
ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund
ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FOF)
Long-Term SIP Schemes with Freedom SIP*
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund
ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund
ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund
ICICI Prudential Focused Equity Fund
Core-Long Term Investment
ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund
ICICI Prudential Focused Equity Fund
ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund
Global Diversification ICICI Prudential Global Advantage Fund (FOF)
ICICI Prudential Freedom SIP* is a combination of Smart Features, to help investors achieve their Financial Goals. Freedom SIP allows investors to switch the SIP investments to a target scheme,
post completion of the SIP tenure & monthly SWP will continue from the target scheme.
ICICI Prudential Freedom SIP is an optional feature that allows initial investments through SIP, switchtoanother scheme after a pre- defined tenure and SWP post that. ^The SWP will be processed either till Dec2099
or till units are available in target scheme, whichever is earlier. Please read the terms and conditions inthe application form before investing. *Target Scheme: Post completion of SIP tenure, the corpus shall switchto the
target scheme and a monthly SWP shall start from this scheme. For source and target scheme names,refer the Application Form of ICICI Prudential Freedom SIP. ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund reserves the right
tomake changes in the source and target schemes. Investor may please note that ICICI Prudential Freedom SIPis different from ICICI Prudential Freedom SWP.
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
May-05
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
Aggressively invest in Equities
Neutral
Incremental Moneyto Debt
Book Partial Profits
123.3
Invest in Equities
4. ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund *(An open ended equity scheme predominantly
investing in large cap stocks) is suitable for investors who are seeking: Moderate
⢠Long term wealth creation
⢠An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in large cap stocks. LOW HIGH
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Moderately High
*Investorsshouldconsulttheirfinancialadvisorsifindoubt about whether the product is suitableforthem. risk
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund ( An open ended equity scheme following a
value investment strategy) is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Moderate
⢠Long term wealth creation
⢠An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy. LOW HIGH
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Moderately High
*Investorsshouldconsulttheirfinancialadvisorsifindoubt about whether the product is suitableforthem. risk
ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund (An open ended dynamic asset allocation
fund) is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Moderate
⢠Long term capital appreciation/income
⢠Investing in equity and equity related instruments and debt securities LOW HIGH
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Moderately High
*Investorsshouldconsulttheirfinancialadvisorsifindoubt about whether the product is suitableforthem. risk
ICICI Prudential Focused Equity Fund (An open ended equity scheme investing in
maximum 30 stocks across market-capitalisation i.e. focus on multicap) is suitable for
investors who are seeking*: Moderate
⢠Long Term Wealth Creation
⢠An open ended equity scheme investing in maximum 30 stocks across
market-capitalisation.
LOW HIGH
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Moderately High
risk
*Investorsshouldconsulttheirfinancialadvisorsifindoubt about whether the product is suitableforthem.
Riskometers
Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis as per SEBI circular dated October 05, 2020 on Product Labeling in
Mutual Fund schemes - Risk-o-meter. Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund (An open ended equity scheme following
business cycles based investing theme) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
ďą Long Term wealth creation
ďą An equity scheme that invests in Indian markets with focus on riding business
cycles through dynamic allocation between various sectors and stocks at
different stages of business cycles
*Investors should consult their financial advisors ifindoubtaboutwhether the productis suitable for them.
5. ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund (An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing
in mid cap stocks) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Moderate
⢠Long term wealth creation
⢠An open-ended equity scheme that aims for capital appreciation by investing in LOW HIGH
diversified mid cap companies. Investors understand that their
principal will be at Moderately High
risk
*Investorsshouldconsulttheirfinancialadvisorsifindoubt about whether the product is suitableforthem.
ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund (An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing
in small cap stocks) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Moderate
⢠Long term wealth creation
⢠An open ended equity scheme that seeks to generate capital appreciation by LOW HIGH
predominantly investing in equity and equity related securities of small cap companies. Investors understand that their
principal will be at Moderately High
risk
*Investorsshouldconsulttheirfinancialadvisorsifindoubt about whether the product is suitableforthem.
ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FOF) (An open ended fund of funds scheme
investing in equity oriented schemes, debt oriented schemes and gold ETFs/schemes)
is suitable for investors who are seeking*
*Investors may please note that they will be bearing the recurring expenses of this Scheme in addition to the expenses of the underlying
Schemes in which this Scheme makes investment.:
Moderate
⢠Long Term Wealth Creation
⢠An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity oriented schemes, debt
oriented schemes and gold ETFs/ schemes.
LOW HIGH
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Moderately High
risk
*Investorsshouldconsulttheirfinancialadvisorsifindoubt about whether the product is suitableforthem.
ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund (An open ended equity scheme following
special situations theme) is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Moderate
LOW HIGH
Investors understand that their
principal will be at High risk
⢠Long Term Wealth Creation
⢠An equity scheme that invests in stocks based on special situations theme.
*Investorsshouldconsulttheirfinancialadvisorsifindoubt about whether the product is suitableforthem.
ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund (An open ended scheme investing in Equity, Debt
and Exchange Traded Commodity Derivatives/ Units of Gold ETFs/units of REITs &
InvITs/Preference Shares) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Moderate
⢠Long term wealth creation
⢠An open ended scheme investing across asset classes.
LOW HIGH
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Moderately High
*Investorsshouldconsulttheirfinancialadvisorsifindoubt about whether the product is suitableforthem. risk
Riskometers
Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis as per SEBI circular dated October 05, 2020 on Product Labeling in
Mutual Fund schemes - Risk-o-meter. Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
Investors may please note that they will be bearing the recurringexpenses of the relevant fund of funds scheme in addition to the expenses of the underlying schemes in which the fund of funds scheme makes investment
6. ICICI Prudential Dividend Yield Equity Fund (An open ended equity scheme
predominantly investing in dividend yielding stocks.) is suitable for investors who are
seeking*:
Moderate
⢠Long term wealth creation
⢠An open ended equity scheme that aims for growth by primarily investing in equity and
equity related instruments of dividend yielding companies.
LOW HIGH
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Moderately High
risk
*Investorsshouldconsulttheirfinancialadvisorsifindoubt about whether the product is suitableforthem.
ICICI Prudential Global Advantage Fund (FOF) (An open ended Fund of Funds scheme
predominantly investing in mutual fund Schemes / ETFs that invest in international
markets.) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Moderate
⢠Long term wealth creation
⢠An open ended Fund of Funds scheme predominantly investing in mutual fund
Schemes / ETFs that invest in international markets.
LOW HIGH
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Moderately High
risk
*Investorsshouldconsulttheirfinancialadvisorsifindoubt about whether the product is suitableforthem.
Riskometers
Investors may please note that they will be bearing the recurringexpenses of the relevant fund of funds scheme in addition to the expenses of the underlying schemes in which the fund of funds scheme makes investment
ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund (An open ended equity scheme following
Infrastructure theme) is suitable for investors who are seeking*
⢠Long Term Wealth Creation
⢠An open ended equity scheme that aims for growth by primarily investing in
companies belonging to infrastructure & allied sectors
*Investors shouldconsult their financial advisors ifin doubt about whether the product is suitable for
them.
Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis as per SEBI circular dated October 05, 2020 on Product Labeling in
Mutual Fund schemes - Risk-o-meter. Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
7. Disclaimer
Mutual Fund investments aresubject to market risks, read all schemerelated documents carefully.
In preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (the AMC) has used
information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. Some of the material used in the document may have
been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC
and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC,
however, does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements /
opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as âwillâ, âexpectâ, âshouldâ, âbelieveâ and similar
expressions or variations of such expressions that are âforward looking statementsâ. Actual results may differ materially from those
suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not
limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an
impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in
interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. The AMC (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, the
trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not be liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not
limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this
material in any manner. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material. All figures and
other data given in this document are dated and the same may or may not be relevant in future. The information contained herein should
not be construed as a forecast or promise nor should it be considered as an investment advice. Investors are advised to consult their
own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribing to
the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. The sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in this communication do not constitute any recommenda-
tion of the same and ICICI PrudentialMutualFundmay ormay not have any future position in these sector(s)/stock(s). Past performance
may or may not be sustained in the future. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme
Information document of the scheme. Please refer to the SID for more details.
The information contained herein is only for the purpose of information and not for distribution and do not constitute an offer to buy or
sell or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments in the United States of America ("US") and/or Canada
or for the benefit of US persons (being persons falling within the definition of the term "US Person" under the US Securities Act, 1933,
as amended) or persons residing in Canada.