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O U T L O O K
ONTHLY
MARKET
DECEMBER 2023
Global Indices Performance
2
• Global indices rose in November
after falling for 3 consecutive
months. Brazil led the race as
inflationary and fiscal pressures
seem to be receding
• India too remained in positive
territory following its global peers
• China remained a key laggard as
weak domestic macros affected
investor sentiments
Germany - DAX Index; China - SSE Composite Index; France - CAC 40 Index; Japan - Nikkei; Eurozone - Euronext 100; Hong Kong - HangSeng; US - Dow Jones; Singapore - Strait Times;
Russia - RTS Index; Indonesia - Jakarta Composite Index; U.K. - FTSE; South Korea - Kospi; Brazil - Ibovespa Sao Paulo Index; Indonesia – Jakarta Composite Index; Switzerland – Swiss
Market Index; Taiwan – Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation; India – S&P BSE Sensex; Data Source: MFI. Returns are absolute returns for the index calculated between Oct 31, 2023 to
Nov 30,2023. PMI: Purchasing Manager Index, US: United States. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their
standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html.
0%
0% 0%
2%
3%
4% 5% 5%
6%
6%
9% 9% 9% 9%
11%
13%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Hong
Kong
Singapore
China
UK
Russia
Switzerland
Indonesia
India
Eurozone
France
Japan
US
Taiwan
Germany
South
Korea
Brazil
Absolute Returns -November 2023
India – Sectoral Indices Performance
3
All indices are of S&P BSE and carry the prefix of S&P BSE; Abbreviated CD - S&P BSE Consumer Durables; CG - S&P BSE Capital Goods; FMCG - S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods; HC - S&P
BSE Health Care; Infra. - S&P BSE India Infrastructure; IT - S&P BSE Information Technology, Govt: Government, RBI: Reserve Bank of India. Data Source: MFI, BSE ; Returns are absolute returns for
the TRI variant of the index (except Infrastructure Index) calculated between October 31,2023 to November 30,2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. The sector(s)/stock(s)
mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this sector(s)/stock(s). MFI Explorer is a tool provided by
ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html.
• On sectoral fronts, all the
indices gained tracking positive
global cues with Realty sector
stealing the show
• Real estate Sector performed
well following a huge surge in
sales & property registrations
• FMCG and Banks & Financials
witnessed modest gains
relatively
4% 4%
5%
6%
7% 7%
9%
10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 12%
14%
18%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
FMCG
Bankex
Financials
CD
IT
Telecom
CG
Metal
Infra
Auto
Energy
HC
Power
Oil
&
Gas
Realty
Absolute Returns - November 23
India: The ‘Goldilocks’ story continues
(For the long term)
Weak global cues and softening domestic macro indicators have put questions on ‘Goldilocks’ story of
Indian Economy. Goldilocks is a state of Economy wherein the country experiences period of ‘High Growth’
& ‘Low Inflation’
Currently, domestic growth continues to hold its ground as demonstrated by strong GDP prints & slightly
moderating but strong macros. We believe that in the near-term volatility may persist as rural growth
continues to lag urban growth, deficient rainfall may impact inflation & demand, global slowdown may
affect exports etc. and may contribute to external sector risks. Such uncertainties create a backfill for future
growth momentum. The way forward for strong momentum of growth remains uncertain in the near term.
Hence, near-term ‘Goldilocks’ picture looks hazy
However, with strong capex momentum, sustained government revenues, decent corporate profitability,
indigenization, favorable demographics & strong bank balance-sheets, the long term picture looks bright
and clear
Goldilocks: Still in the game!
GDP: Gross Domestic Product, Capex: Capital Expenditure
599.0
-50
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
Oct-19
Apr-20
Oct-20
Apr-21
Oct-21
Apr-22
Oct-22
Apr-23
Oct-23
Railway Passenger Traffic (Mn)
Railway Passenger Traffic (Mn)
12.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
Oct-19
Apr-20
Oct-20
Apr-21
Oct-21
Apr-22
Oct-22
Apr-23
Oct-23
Air Passenger Traffic: Domestic (Mn)
Air Passenger Traffic: Domestic (Mn)
Near Term Picture –
Rural Growth playing a catch down
6
Data as Oct 31, 2023. Source – Avendus Spark Capital. Mn: Million, Covid refers to Coronavirus Disease 2019.
Urban demand remains resilient. However, with rural growth indicators
hovering below Pre-Covid averages, rural recovery remains elusive
Pre-Covid Average: 11.3 Pre-Covid Average: 696.5
Urban Growth Indicator Rural Growth Indicator
Near Term Picture –
Deficient Monsoon
7
Data as on Sep 30,2023. Data Source: Equirus Research. IMD: Indian Metrological Department.
India reports higher rainfall deficit (approx. 6%) in 2023 against IMD estimates of 4%
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
MONSOON RAINS TRENDING BELOW LONG PERIOD AVERAGE
Deficient Rains may
impact rural demand,
keep inflation on the
higher end & compel
government to curb
export of commodities
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000
Jan-20
Jun-20
Nov-20
Apr-21
Sep-21
Feb-22
Jul-22
Dec-22
May-23
Oct-23
Central Bank Balance Sheets (FED, ECB,BoJ)($BN)
Central Bank Balance Sheets (FED, ECB,BoJ)($BN)
Near Term Picture –
Higher for Longer Interest rates
8
Data as Oct 25, 2023. Data Source: ICICI Securities, JP Morgan, Equirus Research &FRED (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL) . Fed: Federal Reserve System of US,
ECB: European Central Bank, BoJ: Bank of Japan, USA: United States of America, UK: United Kingdom.$; US Dollar, Bn: Billion. Estimates refer to JP Morgan Estimates.
Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
Expectations of high Interest Rates + shrinking Central Bank Balance sheets likely to decelerate global growth engine
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Mar-20
Jul-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
Jul-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
Jul-22
Nov-22
Mar-23
Jul-23
Nov-23
Mar-24
Global Central Bank Policy Rates (%)
Eurozone USA UK
Estimates
Reducing Balance sheet size
since beginning of rate hikes
Jun-24
-14%
-9%
-4%
1%
6%
11%
16%
21%
26%
31%
36%
Jun-14
Feb-15
Oct-15
Jun-16
Feb-17
Oct-17
Jun-18
Feb-19
Oct-19
Jun-20
Feb-21
Oct-21
Jun-22
Feb-23
Oct-23
3MMA Services Exports (YoY %)
Near Term Picture –
Moderating Service Exports
9
Data as on Oct 31,2023 is considered. Source – Equirus Research, MMA: Month Moving Average. Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
Downtrend of services export may continue in the near-term as
Global slowdown is likely to have a bearing on India’s Services exports
Services Exports continue to
paint downtrend picture
Zooming out a little…
Long term picture –
Indian Govt. sustains its firepower
11
For Central Govt. Tax Revenues: Data as on Sep 30,2023 is considered. Source: Morgan Stanley & Avendus Spark Capital. GDP: Gross Domestic Product, FY: Financial Year, M:
Months, Bn: Billion, Govt.: Government. GST: Goods & Services Tax. Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
India stands relatively less scathed
to high global interest rates
Buoyant Tax collection likely to help the Govt.
keep its fiscal deficit in check
Japan
261.3
Govt. Debt to GDP(%)
US
121.4
France
111.7
UK
101.4
India
83.1
China
77.1
Taiwan
27.5
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
6M
FY13
6M
FY14
6M
FY15
6M
FY16
6M
FY17
6M
FY18
6M
FY19
6M
FY20
6M
FY21
6M
FY22
6M
FY23
6M
FY24
Central Govt. Revenues (INR Bn)
Direct Tax (Rs. bn) Indirect Tax (Rs. bn) GST Collections
Total Revenue for 6M FY24 jumped
by 14%, marked by buoyant
corporate tax collection
Long Term Picture –
Banking Health
12
FY: Financial Year. Source: Morgan Stanley Research & Avendus Spark Capital.
Indian banks remain relatively stable amidst Global banking Crisis due to
i) Improved management of Non Performing Loans and ii) Constantly rising Net Interest Margins
FY-18
11.5%
FY-19
9.3%
FY-20
8.5%
FY-21
7.5%
FY-22
5.9%
FY-23
3.9%
Years
Bank's Net Interest
Margins (%)
FY-22 3.3
FY-21 3.3
FY-20 3.2
FY-19 3.1
FY-18 2.8
Gross Non Performing Loans (%) Net interest Margins (%)
Long term picture –
Corporate Profitability
13
Data Source: Morgan Stanley and Avendus Spark. F: Financial Year. FY: Financial Year. E: Estimates. Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
India’s Economic growth has bolstered Corporate Profits and reduced corporate’s reliance on large finances
62%
52%
55%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
F2013
F2014
F2015
F2016
F2017
F2018
F2019
F2020
F2021
F2022
F2023E
F2024E
F2025E
Corporate Debt (% of GDP)
3.7%
1.4%
5.2%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
Corporate Profit to GDP (%)
Corporate Debt reduced over the
years reflect lower reliance on
external finances
Steady GDP momentum creates conducive
environment for businesses
Long term picture –
Household Demand
14
Data Source: Morgan Stanley and Macquarie Research. GDP: Gross Domestic Product, F: Forecasts, Mn: Million, For High Income Group, Annual income per household is >30L, for Upper Mid: Annual
income above 6 L but below 30L, For Lower Mid, Annual income below 6L and above 3L and for Lower Income, Annual Income lower than 3L is considered. L: Lakhs. Past performance may or may not
sustain in future.
Lower Household Debt and changing Income Distribution Dynamics
create conducive environment for blooming consumer demand
China
Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Korea
Phillipines
Singapore
Taiwan
Thailand
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000
Household
Debt,
%
of
GDP
GDP per capita (2021)
Household Debt to GDP
Household Income Distribution
(No. of Households in each level group)
2005 2018 2030F
High Income
Group
1 Mn (1%)
Upper-Mid
Income Group
16 Mn (7%)
Lower-Mid
Income Group
51 Mn (23%)
Low Income
Group
151 Mn (69%)
8 Mn (3%)
61 Mn (21%)
97 Mn (33%)
127 Mn (43%)
29 Mn (7%)
168 Mn (44%)
132 Mn (33%)
57 Mn (15%)
Long Term Picture –
India’s PMI remains brightest
15
Source – Axis Capital and Equirus Research. PMI – Purchasing Managers Index, US – United States, UK – United Kingdom. PMI >50 indicates expansion and <50 indicates
contraction. Readings above 50 are shown in green color and below 50 are shown in red color.
India is consistently outperforming major economies in terms of manufacturing activity
India US Eurozone UK China Japan
Oct-22 55.3 50.4 46.4 46.2 49.2 50.7
Nov-22 55.7 47.7 47.1 46.5 49.4 49.0
Dec-22 57.8 46.2 47.8 45.3 49.0 48.9
Jan-23 55.4 46.9 48.8 47.0 49.2 48.5
Feb-23 55.3 47.3 48.5 49.3 51.6 47.7
Mar-23 56.4 49.2 47.3 47.9 50.0 49.2
Apr-23 57.2 50.2 45.8 47.8 49.5 49.5
May-23 58.7 48.4 44.8 47.1 50.9 50.6
Jun-23 57.8 46.3 43.4 46.5 50.5 49.8
Jul-23 57.7 49 42.7 45.3 49.2 49.6
Aug-23 58.6 47.9 43.5 43 51.0 49.6
Sep-23 57.5 49.8 43.4 43.3 50.6 48.5
Oct-23 55.5 50.0 43.1 44.8 49.5 48.7
Long term picture –
Favorable Demographics
16
Data is shown on calendar year basis. Data Source: Macquarie Equity Research and Morgan Stanley. Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
Confluence of having younger population mix and lower wage rates
braces for higher manufacturing growth in India
40.4
39.6
38.4
33.5
31.5
29.7
29.2
28.4
27.6
30.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
Singapore
South
Korea
Taiwan
China
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
India
Manufacturing Wage(US$/hr)
2020 2021 2022
Lower Manufacturing
Wages as compared to
other countries
Long term picture –
Going from strength to strength
Data Source: Macquarie Research. GDP: Gross Domestic Product. Average data of 2019 to 2021 is considered.
India’s overall gross savings rate remains competitive with major emerging economies
Effective mobilization of savings in an economy roots for higher growth
China: 44.3 Indonesia: 31.0 Thailand: 29.1 India: 28.8 Russia: 27.7
Philippines: 25.6 Malaysia: 24.8 Mexico: 24.3 Brazil: 15.0 South Africa: 14.6
Gross Domestic Savings (% of GDP)
Valuations Update
Market goes through Phases…
19
Boom Phase
• Lehman Crisis 2008
• Dot com burst – 2001
Burst Phase
• Equity Markets in 2013-16
• Equity Markets in 2009-11
• Debt Accrual Schemes in 2019
• Equity Markets in 2020
Good Time to Invest
• Equity Markets in 2011 &
2017
• Equity Markets currently
• Real Estate in 2013
• e-Commerce in 2014
• Bitcoin in 2017
• Equity in 2007 & 2000
Bubble Phase
• Equity Markets in 2012
Boring Phase
We are here!
Why are we in a Boom Phase?
20
Indicators Current Status Fit for Boom Phase
Market Returns High
Market Valuations Rising
Sentiments Positive
Earnings Growth High
Production Growth High
(0.6) (0.3)
2.0
(6.9)
11.9
22.2
33.2
38.2
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Nifty 50 NIFTY Large Midcap 250 Nifty Midcap 150 Nifty Smallcap 250
Absolute Returns (%)
1 Year Returns as on Mar-23 1 Year Returns as on Dec-23
Boom Phase: Markets yielding higher returns
21
Markets have rebounded at a faster pace in last 6 months
Source : MFI Explorer. Data as on December 06, 2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their
standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html
Gains have been the
highest in Midcap &
Smallcap space
114
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
Sep-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Indian Market Cap to GDP (%)
20.90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Nov-00
Nov-01
Nov-02
Nov-03
Nov-04
Nov-05
Nov-06
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
Nov-23
Nifty 50 P/E (x)
Nifty 50 P/E Average
Boom Phase: Valuations on the higher end
22
With market indices nearing to new record, valuations remain on the higher end
Source : NSE and Nuvama Research. Data as on November 30, 2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. P/E – Price to Earning, GDP: Gross Domestic Product.
Average: 94
Average: 21
Boom Phase: Valuations on the higher end
23
India’s valuations cooled off between Sep-22 & Mar-23
Source : MFI Explorer. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. For indices considered for each country, please refer to slide 2 disclaimers. MFI Explorer is a tool
provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html
29%
27%
22%
18% 18%
16% 15%
11%
8% 8% 8%
4%
3%
-3%
-6%
-7%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Germany
France
Eurozone
Hong
Kong
Taiwan
US
South
Korea
UK
China
Switzerland
Japan
Singapore
India
Indonesia
Russia
Brazil
Absolute Returns (Sep 30, 2022-Mar 31, 2023)
However, valuations are again on the rise…
-16%
-7%
-6%
-2%-2%
0% 0%
2%
4% 4%
8%
10%
12%
14%
19%
25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Hong
Kong
China
Singapore
UK
Switzerland
Eurozone
France
South
Korea
Germany
Indonesia
US
Taiwan
Russia
India
Japan
Brazil
Absolute Returns (Mar 31, 2023 - Nov 30, 2023)
Boom Phase: Valuations on the higher end
24
Share of Market Cap – (as a % of Total Market Cap)
Source: NSE. Data as on Nov 30,2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Red indicates high valuations, Amber indicates neutral valuations and Green indicates attractive
valuations.
Period Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Sum of Mid & Smallcap
2005 83 11.3 5.6 16.9
2006 81.9 11.5 6.7 18.2
2007 77.7 13.2 9.1 22.3
2008 82.7 10.9 6.4 17.3
2009 79.8 12.3 7.9 20.2
2010 78 12.5 9.4 21.9
2011 79.8 12.1 8.1 20.2
2012 77.9 13.4 8.7 22.1
2013 80.3 12.4 7.2 19.6
2014 76.8 14.1 9.1 23.2
2015 73.8 15.2 11 26.2
2016 72.9 15.3 11.8 27.1
2017 68.1 17.3 14.6 31.9
2018 72 16.3 11.7 28
Dec-19 74.9 15.6 9.5 25.1
Dec-20 74.2 15.5 10.2 25.7
Dec-21 68.7 16.8 14.5 31.3
Dec-22 69.2 16.1 14.7 30.8
Jun-23 67.5 16.9 15.6 32.5
Aug-23 64.7 17.7 17.6 35.3
Sep-23 65 17.7 17.3 35
Oct-23 64.5 17.7 17.7 35.4
Nov-23 64 18 18.1 36
Equity Valuation Index
25
Our Equity Valuations Index suggests that valuations continue to remain in the neutral zone
Equity Valuation index is calculated by assigning equal weights to Price-to-Earnings (PE), Price-to-Book (PB), G-Sec*PE and Market Cap to GDP ratio and any other factor which the AMC may
add/delete from time to time.. G-Sec – Government Securities. GDP – Gross Domestic Product, Data as on November 30, 2023 has been considered. Equity Valuation Index (EVI) is a proprietary model
of ICICI Prudential AMC Ltd. (the AMC) used for assessing overall equity market valuations. The AMC may also use this model for other facilities/features offered by the AMC.
109.6
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Nov-05
Nov-06
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
Nov-23
Aggressively Invest in Equities
Neutral
Incremental Money to Debt
Book Partial Profits
Invest in Equities
(600.00)
(400.00)
(200.00)
-
200.00
400.00
600.00
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
FPI Equity Flows (INR Bn)
Boom Phase: Investor Sentiments –
Positive to Neutral
26
Consistent SIP flows are driving the buying spree for Mutual Fund Houses
Sentiments boosted after FPI reversed their selling strategy in India
Data as on Oct 31, 2023 for Mutual Fund Flows. Data as on October 31,2023 for FPI Equity Flows. Data Source: Morgan Stanley Research and NSDL. SIP: Systematic Investment Plan. FPI; Foreign
Portfolio Investors.
0
60
120
180
-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
SIP
Flows
(INR
Bn)
Mutual
Fund
Houses
Flows
(Ex-SIP)
INR
Bn
Consistent SIP Flows
Mutual Fund Houses Flows (Ex-SIP) Monthly SIP flows
5.9 6.8
-10.5
-1.6
6.9
15.8
33.3 33.9
29.7
15.7 15.7 15.7 16.4
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
2 Yrs Earnings Growth (Y-o-Y %)
-1.1
14.8
-19.0
-15.7
41.0
59.0
41.9
12.7
8.3
13.9
9.8
13.9
18.2
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
1 Yr Earnings Growth (Y-o-Y %)
Boom Phase: Earnings Trajectory Climbing Up
27
Data as on November 30, 2023. Data Source: Crisil Research and NSE, Earnings for Nifty 50 Companies have been considered. Returns for 1 year are calculated on absolute basis
and more than 1 year are calculated on CAGR basis. Covid- Coronavirus Disease 2019.
Corporate Earnings continue to gain traction at levels ahead of Pre-covid results
GDP gaining momentum bodes well for corporate earnings growth
Deep scan of GDP components
28
GDP: Gross Domestic Product, FY: Financial Year, YoY: Year on year. Source –Ministry Of Statistics & Programme Implementation.
India’s GDP pegged growth of 7.6% in Q2FY24 marking an uptick across all its components
GDP C I G X-M
Private Consumption Gross Investment Government Spending Net Exports
% share in GDP 56.8 35.3 8.9 23.2 ; 30
Share in Q2FY24 GDP
% YoY change
3.1 11.0 12.3 4.3 ; 16.7
v/s Q2FY23 GDP
7.3 7.2
5.3 5.2 4.8 4.8
3.7 3.5 3.4 3 2.9 2.8
2.1 2 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.3
-0.1
-3.2
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Saudi
Arabia
India
Indonesia
Argentina
Spain
EU
Australia
Mexico
Canada
Brazil
China
Italy
South
Africa
South
Korea
UK
France
United
States
Japan
Germany
Russia
FY23 GDP Growth (%)
Boom Phase: India’s GDP shining bright
29
Data Source: ICICI Securities. GDP: Gross Domestic Product, UK: United Kingdom, YoY: Year on Year and EU: European Union. Percentages shown above have been calculated on
Year on Year basis. The G20 or Group of 20 is an intergovernmental forum comprising 19 countries and the European Union.
Indian Economy is emerging as one of the fastest growing economy amongst the G20 Nations
Summary & Outlook
30
• With changing global macro dynamics, near term vision of ‘Goldilocks’ for Indian Economy is hazy but a clear
vision can be seen in the long term
• With sound fundamentals and multiple structural reforms underway, the economy is at the cusp of further up-
cycle in the long run
• Favorable demographics and demand too bodes well for the economy
• Long term structural story remains intact albeit with near term volatility owing to global growth-inflation
dynamics and evolving geo-political factors and uncertainties
• Post March-23, Indian equity market valuations have become richer with upbeat sentiments on growth and
profitability
• We believe that markets are in a boom phase and prefer large caps given the recent outperformance of mid and
small cap stocks
• We recommend investing in diversified equity schemes having flexibility to move across market caps/ sectors
/themes coupled with Hybrid schemes that allocate across different asset classes with an aim to navigate
volatility
The sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this sector(s)/stock(s).
Fixed Income Outlook
The Month Gone By
32
Source: RBI; US Federal Reserve; Refinitiv. The sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position
in this sector(s)/stock(s).
Global bond yields cooled off rapidly in Nov 2023 after a record rise in the earlier month. Various factors such as softer
inflation print, rising unemployment figures and steady economic growth in the US built up hopes of rate cuts by the US
Fed in the near future.
Domestic bond yields cooled alongside global bond yields, albeit not falling as much as its advanced peers. This may be
likely due to tighter liquidity conditions coupled with incoming supply of bonds.
Recently announced Q2:FY2023-24 gross domestic product estimates beat market expectations, rising 7.6% on-year for
the quarter ended Sep 30, 2023. This was higher than the RBI’s projections of 6.5%.
Europe remains the poster child for the worsening global economic climate, but Canada is also entering a downturn, and
growth in China has stalled. Growth in the US has been surprisingly persistent in 2023, but it is increasingly subdued.
The Month Gone By – Yield Movement
33
Data as on Nov 30, 2023. Source – RBI.
The benchmark 10-year bond yield cooled down to 7.28% on Nov 30, 2023, down 8 bps from Oct 31, 2023. Factors
such as positive global cues and softer inflation print stoked rally in bonds.
7.15%
7.20%
7.25%
7.30%
7.35%
7.40%
31/Oct/23
2/Nov/23
4/Nov/23
6/Nov/23
8/Nov/23
10/Nov/23
12/Nov/23
14/Nov/23
16/Nov/23
18/Nov/23
20/Nov/23
22/Nov/23
24/Nov/23
26/Nov/23
28/Nov/23
30/Nov/23
India Benchmark 10-year G-Sec Yield
India’s inflation
cools to 4.9% in
Oct 2023
US Fed kept
interest rates
unchanged Moody’s
downgrades US
debt rating outlook
to negative
RBI tightens norms
on consumer credit
Dovish statement
by US Fed hinting
for a potential rate
cut in March 2024
Yield Curve and Credit Spreads
34
Data as on Nov 30, 2023. Source – RBI; CCIL, Refinitiv.
Rise in bond yields was visible across the yield curve. The
short-end was affected by tighter liquidity conditions.
7.0%
7.1%
7.2%
7.3%
7.4%
7.5%
1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0
Bond Maturity in Years
G-Sec Yield Curve
30-Nov-23 31-Oct-23
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
31/Oct
03/Nov
06/Nov
09/Nov
12/Nov
15/Nov
18/Nov
21/Nov
24/Nov
27/Nov
30/Nov
in
bps
Credit Spreads Over G-Sec of Comparable Tenure
1Yr-AAA 3Yr-AAA 5Yr-AAA
Credit spreads compressed in the shorter-end of the curve
due to greater rise in G-Sec yields of comparable tenure.
Overnight Interest Rates Touch the Ceiling
35
Data as on Nov 30, 2023. Source – RBI.
System Liquidity remained in deficit for major part of Nov 2023. Cash-deficit banks tapped the RBI’s marginal standing facility
(MSF) window to borrow cash overnight at the penal rate of 6.75%, which, in turn, pushed up overnight yields to the same level.
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
6.6%
6.7%
6.8%
6.9%
31/Oct
/23
01/Nov
/23
02/Nov
/23
03/Nov
/23
04/Nov
/23
05/Nov
/23
06/Nov
/23
07/Nov
/23
08/Nov
/23
09/Nov
/23
10/Nov
/23
11/Nov
/23
12/Nov
/23
13/Nov
/23
14/Nov
/23
15/Nov
/23
16/Nov
/23
17/Nov
/23
18/Nov
/23
19/Nov
/23
20/Nov
/23
21/Nov
/23
22/Nov
/23
23/Nov
/23
24/Nov
/23
25/Nov
/23
26/Nov
/23
27/Nov
/23
28/Nov
/23
29/Nov
/23
30/Nov
/23
System
Liquidity
(Rs.
Cr)
Call
Rate
System Liquidity and Impact on Call Rate
Liquidity Call Rate
Key Highlights
36
Data as on Nov 30, 2023. Source – Investing.com; RBI’s Lending and Deposit Rates of Scheduled Commercial Banks - November 2023. Data lags by 1 month.
The gap between lending and deposit rates has narrowed
owing to rush to chase deposits amid tight liquidity conditions
The 10-year US Treasury bond yield cooled rapidly amid
favorable macro developments
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Interest Rate on Outstanding Deposits and Loans
Deposit Rate Lending Rate
4.2%
4.4%
4.6%
4.8%
5.0%
31/Oct
02/Nov
04/Nov
06/Nov
08/Nov
10/Nov
12/Nov
14/Nov
16/Nov
18/Nov
20/Nov
22/Nov
24/Nov
26/Nov
28/Nov
30/Nov
10-year US Treasury Bond
The Big Picture
37
The Big Picture
38
Source – spglobal.com , rbi.org.in , cga.nic.in.
On the currency front, the Indian Rupee fell 0.2% to settle at Rs 83.39 on Nov 30, compared with Rs 83.25 on Oct 31,
2023, despite weaker dollar index, hinting at possible RBI intervention in currency markets to mop-up dollars. The RBI’s
foreign exchange reserves ballooned to $597.9 billion as on Nov 24, 2023, up from $590.8 billion on Nov 3, 2023.
Fiscal data, which comes with a 1 month lag, showed fiscal deficit reaching 45% of Budget Estimates up till Oct 31,
2023. Deficit was at 45.6% in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Bank credit growth reported a jump of 16.2% on-year as on Nov 17, 2023, excluding the balance sheet impact from the
HDFC twin merger. Deposits grew 12.9% on-year in the same period.
Following a synchronized rise in policy rates, growth is now unsynchronized across major economies. The US is
outperforming whereas in Europe activity is flat. The common macro thread comprises strong labor markets and
spending on services, fiscal tailwinds and lingering core price pressures. Inflation has likely peaked as have policy rates,
but central banks are on guard against declaring victory too early. (S&P Global)
Fiscal – Capex Boom
39
Fiscal data lags by 1 month. Data shown is as on Oct 31, 2023. Source: cga.nic.in. FY – financial year.
Capital expenditure spending reached ₹5.5 lakh crore in Apr-
Oct 2023, 54.7% of budget estimates.
Cumulative market borrowings rebounded in Oct 2023 vis-à-
vis previous year on higher bond supply.
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Cumulative Capital Expenditure (Rs. '00 Crore)
FY23-24 FY22-23
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Cumulative Market Borrowings (Rs. '00 Cr)
FY23-24 FY22-23
Monetary – Credit Growth & Tight Liquidity Worries
40
# - Up Till Oct 22, 2023. Data as on Nov 30, 2023. Source: rbi.org.in. OMO – Open Market Operations.
Bank credit growth has outpaced deposit growth on a
sustained basis, as economic growth continues its momentum
Liquidity conditions remained tight and even worsened with
MSF borrowings crossing ₹2 lakh crore on Nov 21, 2023.
120
130
140
150
160
Nov-22
Dec-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Aggregate Credit of Scheduled Commercial Banks
(in lakh crore)
16.2% YoY Growth
-
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
240,000
280,000
31/Oct/23
02/Nov/23
04/Nov/23
06/Nov/23
08/Nov/23
10/Nov/23
12/Nov/23
14/Nov/23
16/Nov/23
18/Nov/23
20/Nov/23
22/Nov/23
24/Nov/23
26/Nov/23
28/Nov/23
30/Nov/23
Bank’s Cash Movement in RBI’s Liquidity Facilities
(in Rs. Crore)
Marginal Standing Facility (MSF)
Standing Deposit Facility (SDF)
Economic – Expansion Mode On
41
Data as on Nov 30, 2023. Source – CEIC. S&P Global. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors.
Time taken for clearing residential real estate listings has
reduced, close to where it used to be in 2009-11.
India’s purchasing manager index continued to trail above 50,
indicating expansion mode and increase in factory activity.
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Q1-2008
Q4-2008
Q3-2009
Q2-2010
Q1-2011
Q4-2011
Q3-2012
Q2-2013
Q1-2014
Q4-2014
Q3-2015
Q2-2016
Q1-2017
Q4-2017
Q3-2018
Q2-2019
Q1-2020
Q4-2020
Q3-2021
Q2-2022
Q1-2023
Q4-2023
Inventory Overhang in months
56.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index
Global – India Stands Out
42
Data as on Nov 30, 2023. Source – OECD - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; RBI.
OECD projects India to grow at 6.3% on-year in 2023; among
the highest globally.
India saw higher inflows in bond markets vis-à-vis equity
markets as yields look attractive at a global scale
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
Brazil
Canada
China
Germany
India
Indonesia
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
OECD's GDP Growth Forecasts
(Nov '23; YoY)
2025 2024
7.28%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
Brazil
India
Australia
USA
UK
China
Euro Zone
Japan
10-year Govt. Bond Yield
Our Assessment
43
The ‘FMEG’ Framework shows a consolidated view of the factors affecting debt markets
Fiscal
Economic
Monetary
Global
STRONG
STRONG
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
Outlook on Fixed Income
44
Yields data source : CCIL.
We believe that monetary policy will continue to remain neutral, with a relatively low chance of major shift in policy
stance.
Economic indicators have shown steady growth, and hence, monetary policy can maintain a hands-off approach for
the time being.
Over the past one year, the yield curve has flattened from its steep levels. This is in sync with the change in phase of the
economic growth cycle, moving from recovery and into expansion phase.
We believe the expansion cycle could go on for long, unless growth-inflation dynamics shift considerably. Like-wise,
interest rates could also remain elevated and range-bound during the expansion phase.
We suggest limiting duration up to 3 years; taking tactical calls on long-duration and focusing on accrual
assets.
Why We Think We Are in Expansion Phase
45
Source: RBI; Public Information Bureau; CCIL.
This shows that we are indeed in the Middle of the Expansion Phase and
As Growth remains strong there is a Low Probability of Rate Cuts
Signals
Value
Indicator
GDP Forecast for FY24
Inflation Forecast for FY24
Capacity Utilization (Q2FY23-24)
Credit Growth (Nov 2023)
G-Sec Yield Curve Change
(Mar 31, 2022 to Nov 30, 2023)
Among the fastest globally
Within tolerable range
At Long Term Average
Above Recovery Levels
Moving from Steep to Flattish
6.5%
5.4%
74%
>15% YoY
+284 bps (1Y);
+46 bps (10Y)
Fixed-Income Approach: Focus on Accruals
46
Data as on Nov 30, 2023. Debt Valuation Index considers WPI, CPI, Sensex returns, Gold returns and Real estate returns over G-Sec yield, Current Account Balance, Fiscal Balance, Credit Growth and
Crude Oil Movement for calculation. RBI – Reserve Bank of India. Debt Valuation Index is a proprietary model of ICICI Prudential AMC Ltd. (the AMC) used for assessing overall debt valuations. The AMC
may also use this model for other facilities/features offered by the AMC and any other factor which the AMC may add/delete from time to time.
3.24
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Apr 2014 Nov 2015 Jun 2017 Jan 2019 Aug 2020 Mar 2022 Oct 2023
Aggressive
Highly Aggressive
Very Cautious
Cautious
Moderate
Due to rise in bond yields, our
model suggests adding some
duration.
Overall, however, our stance
remains CAUTIOUS towards
duration.
This means ACCRUALS +
Limited Duration seems
suitable in the current scenario.
Nov 2023
Our Choice for Accruals + Limited Duration
47
IPRU – ICICI Prudential. The Yield to Maturity (YTM) mentioned is based on scheme portfolio dated Nov 30, 2023. YTM is the rate of return of a bond if held until maturity. This should not be considered as an indication of the
returns that maybe generated by the scheme. The securities bought by the scheme may or may not be held till their respective maturities. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
YTMs of most of the debt mutual fund categories have improved, making the risk-reward attractive
Investment Avenues for Savings Core Portfolio Allocation
4.76%
5.44%
5.75%
6.75% 6.88%
7.19%
7.79% 7.85%
8.19% 8.05%
8.31%
8.69%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
ICICI Prudential Ultra
Short Term Fund
ICICI Prudential Savings
Fund
ICICI Prudential Floating
Interest Fund
ICICI Prudential All
Seasons Bond Fund
ICICI Prudential Medium
Term Bond Fund
ICICI Prudential Credit
Risk Fund
Change in YTM of Accrual Focused Debt Schemes of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
30-Apr-22 30-Nov-23
Our Current Portfolio Positioning – Limited Duration
48
Data as on Nov 30, 2023. The Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price.
Modified Duration is the price sensitivity and the percentage change in price for a unit change in yield.
Scheme Average Maturity Macaulay Duration Modified Duration
ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund 0.11 Years 0.10 Years 0.10 Years
ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund 0.33 Years 0.32 Years 0.30 Years
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund 0.40 Years 0.39 Years 0.36 Years
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund 2.43 Years 0.93 Years 0.87 Years
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund 6.96 Years 1.27 Years 1.2 Years
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund 3.66 Years 1.98 Years 1.86 Years
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund 3.55 Years 2.27 Years 2.15 Years
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund 4.52 Years 2.47 Years 2.34 Years
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 4.64 Years 2.36 Years 2.25 Years
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund 5.02 Years 3.37 Years 3.22 Years
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund 5.54 Years 3.32 Years 3.18 Years
Our Current Portfolio Positioning – Focus on Accruals
49
Data as on Nov 30, 2023. The Yield to Maturity (YTM) mentioned is based on scheme portfolios dated Nov 30, 2023. YTM is the rate of return anticipated on a bond if held until maturity. This should not be considered as an
indication of the returns that maybe generated by the scheme. The securities bought by the scheme may or may not be held till their respective maturities. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future, *Includes
TREPS & Net Current Assets, ^ Includes Treasury Bills.
Scheme
AAA & Equivalent
Exposure
AA & Equivalent and
Below Exposure
YTM
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund 11.6% 61.9% 8.69%
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund 14.6% 42.0% 8.31%
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund 22.6% 9.2% 8.19%
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund 10.6% 25.0% 8.05%
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 38.0% 12.8% 7.99%
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund 72.3% - 7.99%
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund 70.2% - 7.88%
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund 68.7% 3.7% 7.85%
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund 70.6% 15.3% 7.79%
ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund 83.4% - 7.56%
ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund 83.7% 0.1% 7.33%
To Summarize…
50
Term spreads remain modest
and hence portfolio duration
should be limited
Fixed income space
continues to remain
attractive
Short to moderate duration schemes
are preferred as we are in an
interest-rate-pause cycle
Dynamic duration scheme
remains our top
recommendation
Focus on accruals in the
current scenario of high
interest rates
Global central banks action may
keep the market volatile
Investment Approach and Scheme
Recommendations
Investment Playbook for 2023 –
An era of Multiple Asset Classes
52
Category Outlook Our View Scheme Recommendations
Equity
Valuations moderated but remains in
NEUTRAL zone.
Long term ‘POSITIVE’
IPRU Business Cycle Fund, IPRU Flexicap Fund , IPRU Value
Discovery Fund
Asset Allocation/
Hybrid
Volatility expected to persist
IPRU Balanced Advantage Fund, IPRU Multi-Asset Fund,
IPRU Equity & Debt Fund
Fixed Income
High yields making the space
attractive
IPRU Ultra Short Term Fund, IPRU Short Term Fund,
IPRU Credit Risk Fund, IPRU All Seasons Bond Fund
Positive
Neutral
IPRU – ICICI Prudential. Asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document.
Disclaimers, Risk-o-
Meters & PRC Matrix
53
54
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund (An open ended equity scheme following business cycles based
investing theme) is suitable for investors whoare seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 An equity scheme that invests in Indian markets with focus on riding business cycles through dynamic
allocation between various sectors and stocks at different stages of business cycles
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fund (An open ended dynamic equity scheme investing across large cap, mid cap
& small cap stocks) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 An open ended dynamic equity scheme investing across large cap, mid cap and small cap stocks
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on November 30, 2023 Please refer to
https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund (An open ended scheme investing in Equity, Debt and Exchange Traded
Commodity Derivatives/units of Gold ETFs/units of REITs & InvITs/ Preference shares) is suitable for investors
who are seeking*:
 Long Term Wealth Creation
 An open ended scheme investing across asset classes
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
55
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund (An open ended equity scheme following a value investment
strategy.)is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on November 30, 2023 Please refer to
https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund (An open ended dynamic asset allocation fund) is suitable
for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term capital appreciation/income
 Investing in equity and equity related securities and debt instruments
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund (An open ended hybrid scheme investing predominantly in equity
and equity related instruments) is suitable for investors whoare seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation solution
 A balanced fund aiming for long term capital appreciation and current income by investing in equity
as well as fixed income securities
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
Riskometers
Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The below riskometers are as on Nov 30, 2023. Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-
and-updates/all-news for more details.
ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund
(An open ended debt scheme investing in money market instruments. A relatively low interest
rate risk and relatively low credit risk.)
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Low To Moderate Risk
This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
• Short term savings
• A money market scheme that seeks to provide
reasonable returns, commensurate with low risk
and providing a high level of liquidity
ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund
(An open ended liquid scheme. A relatively low interest rate risk and moderate credit risk.)
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Moderate Risk
This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
• Short term savings solution
• A liquid fund that aims to provide reasonable
returns commensurate with low risk and
providing a high level of liquidity
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund
(An open ended low duration debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay
Duration of the portfolio is between 6 months and 12 months. A relatively high interest rate risk
and moderate credit risk.)
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Low To Moderate Risk
This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
• Short term savings
• An open ended low duration scheme that aims to
maximize income by investing in debt and money
market instruments while maintaining optimum
balance of yield, safety and liquidity.
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund
(An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in Debt instruments of banks, Public
Sector Undertakings, Public Financial Institutions and Municipal bonds. A relatively high interest
rate risk and moderate credit risk.)
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Moderate Risk
This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
• Short term savings
• An open ended debt scheme predominantly
investing in debt instruments of banks, Public
Sector Undertakings, Public Financial Institutions
and Municipal Bonds
56
Riskometers
57
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund
(An open ended dynamic debt scheme investing across duration. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate
credit risk.)
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Moderate Risk
This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
• All duration savings
• A debt scheme that invests in debt and money
market instruments with a view to maximize
income while maintaining optimum balance of
yield, safety and liquidity.
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund
(An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA and below rated corporate bonds. A
relatively high interest rate risk and relatively high credit risk.)
Investors understand that their
principal will be at High Risk
This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
• Medium term savings
• A debt scheme that aims to generate income
through investing in AA and below rated corporate
bonds while maintaining the optimum balance of
yield, safety and liquidity.
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund
(An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments (including
fixed rate instruments converted to floating rate exposures using swaps/derivatives). A relatively
high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk.)
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Low To Moderate Risk
This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
• Short term savings
• An open ended debt scheme predominantly
investing in floating rate instruments.
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund
(An open ended scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio
between 3 months and 6 months. A moderate interest rate risk and moderate credit risk.)
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Moderate Risk
This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
• Short term regular income
• An open ended ultra-short debt scheme investing
in a range of debt and money market instruments.
Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The below riskometers are as on Nov 30, 2023. Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-
and-updates/all-news for more details.
Riskometers
58
Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The below riskometers are as on Nov 30, 2023. Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-
and-updates/all-news for more details.
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund
(An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA+ or above rated corporate bonds. A
relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk.)
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Low to Moderate Risk
This product is suitable for investors who are
seeking*:
• Short term savings
• An open ended debt scheme predominantly
investing in highest rate corporate bonds.
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund
(An open ended short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the
portfolio is between 1 Year and 3 Years. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk.)
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Moderate Risk
This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
• Short term income generation and capital
appreciation solution
• A debt fund that aims to generate income by
investing in a range of debt and money market
instruments of various maturities.
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund
(An open ended medium term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration
of the portfolio is between 3 Years and 4 Years. The Macaulay duration of the portfolio is 1 Year to 4
years under anticipated adverse situation. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk)
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Moderately High Risk
This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
• Medium term savings
• A debt scheme that invests in debt and money
market instruments with a view to maximize
income while maintaining optimum balance of
yield, safety and liquidity
YTM Disclaimer
59
As per AMFI Best Practices Guidelines Circular No. AMFI/ 35P/ MEM-COR/ 72 / 2022-23 dated December 31, 2022 on Standard format for disclosure Portfolio YTM for Debt Schemes, Yield of
the instrument is disclosed on annualized basis as provided by Valuation agencies. *in case of semi annual YTM, it will be annualized.
The Yield to Maturity (YTM) mentioned is based on scheme portfolio dated Nov 30, 2023. YTM is the rate of return of a bond if held until maturity. This should not be considered as an indication of
the returns that maybe generated by the scheme. The securities bought by the scheme may or may not be held till their respective maturities.
Scheme
Name
ICICI Prudential
Money Market Fund
Description
An open ended debt
scheme investing in
money market
instruments. A relatively
low interest rate risk and
moderate credit risk
ICICI Prudential
Savings Fund
An open ended low
duration debt schem
investing in instruments
such that the Macaulay
duration of the portfolio
is between 6 months and
12 months. A relatively
high interest rate risk
and moderate credit risk.
ICICI Prudential
Floating Interest
Fund
An open ended debt
scheme predominantly
investing in floating rate
instruments (including
fixed rate instruments
converted to floating
rate exposures using
swaps/derivatives).
A relatively high interest
rate risk and moderate
credit risk
ICICI Prudential
Banking &
PSU Debt Fund
An open ended debt
scheme predominantly
investing in Debt
instruments of banks,
Public Sector
Undertakings, Public
Financial Institutions and
Municipal bonds.
A relatively high interest
rate risk and moderate
credit risk.
ICICI Prudential
Corporate Bond
Fund
An open ended debt
scheme predominantly
investing in AA+ and
above rated corporate
bonds. A relatively high
interest rate risk and
moderate credit risk.
An open ended dynamic
debt scheme investing
across duration.
A relatively high interest
rate risk and moderate
credit risk.
Annualised
Portfolio YTM*:
7.56% 7.85% 8.19% 7.88% 7.99% 8.05%
Residual
Maturity
118.80 Days 2.43 Years 6.96 Years 4.52 Years 3.66 Years 5.54 Years
Macaulay
Duration
117.51 Days 0.93 Years 1.27 Years 2.47 Years 1.98 Years 3.32 Years
ICICI Prudential
All Seasons Bond
Fund
YTM Disclaimer
60
As per AMFI Best Practices Guidelines Circular No. AMFI/ 35P/ MEM-COR/ 72 / 2022-23 dated December 31, 2022 on Standard format for disclosure Portfolio YTM for Debt Schemes, Yield of
the instrument is disclosed on annualized basis as provided by Valuation agencies. *in case of semi annual YTM, it will be annualized.
The Yield to Maturity (YTM) mentioned is based on scheme portfolio dated Nov 30, 2023. YTM is the rate of return of a bond if held until maturity. This should not be considered as an indication of
the returns that maybe generated by the scheme. The securities bought by the scheme may or may not be held till their respective maturities.
Scheme
Name
ICICI Prudential
Short Term Fund
Description
An open ended short
term debt schem
investing in instruments
such that the Macaulay
duration of the portfolio
is between 1 Year and
3 Years. A relatively high
interest rate risk and
moderate credit risk.
ICICI Prudential
Liquid Fund
An open ended liquid
scheme.
A relatively low interest
rate risk and moderate
credit risk.
ICICI Prudential
Credit Risk Fund
An open ended debt
scheme predominantly
investing in AA and below
rated corporate bonds.
A relatively high interes
rate risk and relatively high
credit risk
ICICI Prudential
Medium Term Bond
Fund
An Open Ended medium
term debt scheme
investing in instruments
such that the Macaulay
duration of the portfolio
is between 3 Years and
4 Years The Macaulay
duration of the portfolio
is 1 Year to 4 years under
anticipated adverse
situation. A relatively high
interest rate risk and
moderate credit risk.
ICICI Prudential
Ultra Short Term
Fund
An open ended
ultra-short term debt
scheme investing in
instruments such that
the Macaulay duration
of the portfolio is
between 3 months and
6 months. A moderate
interest rate risk and
moderate credit risk
Annualised
Portfolio YTM*:
7.99% 7.33% 8.69% 8.31% 7.79%
Residual
Maturity
4.64 Years 0.11 Years 3.55 Years 5.02 Years 0.40 Years
Macaulay
Duration
2.36 Years 0.10 Years 2.27 Years 3.37 Years 0.39 Years
Potential Risk Class Matrix
61
The Potential risk class (PRC) matrix based on interest rate risk and credit risk.
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund
ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund
ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund, ICICI Prudential
Floating Interest Fund, ICICI Prudential Medium
Term Bond Fund, ICICI Prudential All Seasons
Bond Fund, ICICI Prudential Corporate
Bond Fund, ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU
Debt Fund, ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund
62
Riskometers
All figures and other data given in this document are dated as of November 30, 2023 unless stated otherwise. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date.
The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any
form, without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (the AMC). Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal,
tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, the AMC has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-
house. Some of the material(s) used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have
been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC
however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this
document, which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward
looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our
expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have
an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign
exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust
and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive,
special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Further, the information contained herein
should not be construed as forecast or promise. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
The Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the
cash flow by the price.

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Monthly Market Outlook | Dec 2023

  • 1. O U T L O O K ONTHLY MARKET DECEMBER 2023
  • 2. Global Indices Performance 2 • Global indices rose in November after falling for 3 consecutive months. Brazil led the race as inflationary and fiscal pressures seem to be receding • India too remained in positive territory following its global peers • China remained a key laggard as weak domestic macros affected investor sentiments Germany - DAX Index; China - SSE Composite Index; France - CAC 40 Index; Japan - Nikkei; Eurozone - Euronext 100; Hong Kong - HangSeng; US - Dow Jones; Singapore - Strait Times; Russia - RTS Index; Indonesia - Jakarta Composite Index; U.K. - FTSE; South Korea - Kospi; Brazil - Ibovespa Sao Paulo Index; Indonesia – Jakarta Composite Index; Switzerland – Swiss Market Index; Taiwan – Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation; India – S&P BSE Sensex; Data Source: MFI. Returns are absolute returns for the index calculated between Oct 31, 2023 to Nov 30,2023. PMI: Purchasing Manager Index, US: United States. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html. 0% 0% 0% 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 9% 9% 9% 9% 11% 13% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Hong Kong Singapore China UK Russia Switzerland Indonesia India Eurozone France Japan US Taiwan Germany South Korea Brazil Absolute Returns -November 2023
  • 3. India – Sectoral Indices Performance 3 All indices are of S&P BSE and carry the prefix of S&P BSE; Abbreviated CD - S&P BSE Consumer Durables; CG - S&P BSE Capital Goods; FMCG - S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods; HC - S&P BSE Health Care; Infra. - S&P BSE India Infrastructure; IT - S&P BSE Information Technology, Govt: Government, RBI: Reserve Bank of India. Data Source: MFI, BSE ; Returns are absolute returns for the TRI variant of the index (except Infrastructure Index) calculated between October 31,2023 to November 30,2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. The sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this sector(s)/stock(s). MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html. • On sectoral fronts, all the indices gained tracking positive global cues with Realty sector stealing the show • Real estate Sector performed well following a huge surge in sales & property registrations • FMCG and Banks & Financials witnessed modest gains relatively 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 12% 14% 18% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% FMCG Bankex Financials CD IT Telecom CG Metal Infra Auto Energy HC Power Oil & Gas Realty Absolute Returns - November 23
  • 4. India: The ‘Goldilocks’ story continues (For the long term)
  • 5. Weak global cues and softening domestic macro indicators have put questions on ‘Goldilocks’ story of Indian Economy. Goldilocks is a state of Economy wherein the country experiences period of ‘High Growth’ & ‘Low Inflation’ Currently, domestic growth continues to hold its ground as demonstrated by strong GDP prints & slightly moderating but strong macros. We believe that in the near-term volatility may persist as rural growth continues to lag urban growth, deficient rainfall may impact inflation & demand, global slowdown may affect exports etc. and may contribute to external sector risks. Such uncertainties create a backfill for future growth momentum. The way forward for strong momentum of growth remains uncertain in the near term. Hence, near-term ‘Goldilocks’ picture looks hazy However, with strong capex momentum, sustained government revenues, decent corporate profitability, indigenization, favorable demographics & strong bank balance-sheets, the long term picture looks bright and clear Goldilocks: Still in the game! GDP: Gross Domestic Product, Capex: Capital Expenditure
  • 6. 599.0 -50 50 150 250 350 450 550 650 750 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Oct-21 Apr-22 Oct-22 Apr-23 Oct-23 Railway Passenger Traffic (Mn) Railway Passenger Traffic (Mn) 12.6 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Oct-21 Apr-22 Oct-22 Apr-23 Oct-23 Air Passenger Traffic: Domestic (Mn) Air Passenger Traffic: Domestic (Mn) Near Term Picture – Rural Growth playing a catch down 6 Data as Oct 31, 2023. Source – Avendus Spark Capital. Mn: Million, Covid refers to Coronavirus Disease 2019. Urban demand remains resilient. However, with rural growth indicators hovering below Pre-Covid averages, rural recovery remains elusive Pre-Covid Average: 11.3 Pre-Covid Average: 696.5 Urban Growth Indicator Rural Growth Indicator
  • 7. Near Term Picture – Deficient Monsoon 7 Data as on Sep 30,2023. Data Source: Equirus Research. IMD: Indian Metrological Department. India reports higher rainfall deficit (approx. 6%) in 2023 against IMD estimates of 4% 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MONSOON RAINS TRENDING BELOW LONG PERIOD AVERAGE Deficient Rains may impact rural demand, keep inflation on the higher end & compel government to curb export of commodities
  • 8. 19,000 20,000 21,000 22,000 23,000 24,000 25,000 26,000 Jan-20 Jun-20 Nov-20 Apr-21 Sep-21 Feb-22 Jul-22 Dec-22 May-23 Oct-23 Central Bank Balance Sheets (FED, ECB,BoJ)($BN) Central Bank Balance Sheets (FED, ECB,BoJ)($BN) Near Term Picture – Higher for Longer Interest rates 8 Data as Oct 25, 2023. Data Source: ICICI Securities, JP Morgan, Equirus Research &FRED (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL) . Fed: Federal Reserve System of US, ECB: European Central Bank, BoJ: Bank of Japan, USA: United States of America, UK: United Kingdom.$; US Dollar, Bn: Billion. Estimates refer to JP Morgan Estimates. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Expectations of high Interest Rates + shrinking Central Bank Balance sheets likely to decelerate global growth engine 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Mar-20 Jul-20 Nov-20 Mar-21 Jul-21 Nov-21 Mar-22 Jul-22 Nov-22 Mar-23 Jul-23 Nov-23 Mar-24 Global Central Bank Policy Rates (%) Eurozone USA UK Estimates Reducing Balance sheet size since beginning of rate hikes Jun-24
  • 9. -14% -9% -4% 1% 6% 11% 16% 21% 26% 31% 36% Jun-14 Feb-15 Oct-15 Jun-16 Feb-17 Oct-17 Jun-18 Feb-19 Oct-19 Jun-20 Feb-21 Oct-21 Jun-22 Feb-23 Oct-23 3MMA Services Exports (YoY %) Near Term Picture – Moderating Service Exports 9 Data as on Oct 31,2023 is considered. Source – Equirus Research, MMA: Month Moving Average. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Downtrend of services export may continue in the near-term as Global slowdown is likely to have a bearing on India’s Services exports Services Exports continue to paint downtrend picture
  • 10. Zooming out a little…
  • 11. Long term picture – Indian Govt. sustains its firepower 11 For Central Govt. Tax Revenues: Data as on Sep 30,2023 is considered. Source: Morgan Stanley & Avendus Spark Capital. GDP: Gross Domestic Product, FY: Financial Year, M: Months, Bn: Billion, Govt.: Government. GST: Goods & Services Tax. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. India stands relatively less scathed to high global interest rates Buoyant Tax collection likely to help the Govt. keep its fiscal deficit in check Japan 261.3 Govt. Debt to GDP(%) US 121.4 France 111.7 UK 101.4 India 83.1 China 77.1 Taiwan 27.5 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 6M FY13 6M FY14 6M FY15 6M FY16 6M FY17 6M FY18 6M FY19 6M FY20 6M FY21 6M FY22 6M FY23 6M FY24 Central Govt. Revenues (INR Bn) Direct Tax (Rs. bn) Indirect Tax (Rs. bn) GST Collections Total Revenue for 6M FY24 jumped by 14%, marked by buoyant corporate tax collection
  • 12. Long Term Picture – Banking Health 12 FY: Financial Year. Source: Morgan Stanley Research & Avendus Spark Capital. Indian banks remain relatively stable amidst Global banking Crisis due to i) Improved management of Non Performing Loans and ii) Constantly rising Net Interest Margins FY-18 11.5% FY-19 9.3% FY-20 8.5% FY-21 7.5% FY-22 5.9% FY-23 3.9% Years Bank's Net Interest Margins (%) FY-22 3.3 FY-21 3.3 FY-20 3.2 FY-19 3.1 FY-18 2.8 Gross Non Performing Loans (%) Net interest Margins (%)
  • 13. Long term picture – Corporate Profitability 13 Data Source: Morgan Stanley and Avendus Spark. F: Financial Year. FY: Financial Year. E: Estimates. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. India’s Economic growth has bolstered Corporate Profits and reduced corporate’s reliance on large finances 62% 52% 55% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% F2013 F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021 F2022 F2023E F2024E F2025E Corporate Debt (% of GDP) 3.7% 1.4% 5.2% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 Corporate Profit to GDP (%) Corporate Debt reduced over the years reflect lower reliance on external finances Steady GDP momentum creates conducive environment for businesses
  • 14. Long term picture – Household Demand 14 Data Source: Morgan Stanley and Macquarie Research. GDP: Gross Domestic Product, F: Forecasts, Mn: Million, For High Income Group, Annual income per household is >30L, for Upper Mid: Annual income above 6 L but below 30L, For Lower Mid, Annual income below 6L and above 3L and for Lower Income, Annual Income lower than 3L is considered. L: Lakhs. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Lower Household Debt and changing Income Distribution Dynamics create conducive environment for blooming consumer demand China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Phillipines Singapore Taiwan Thailand 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 Household Debt, % of GDP GDP per capita (2021) Household Debt to GDP Household Income Distribution (No. of Households in each level group) 2005 2018 2030F High Income Group 1 Mn (1%) Upper-Mid Income Group 16 Mn (7%) Lower-Mid Income Group 51 Mn (23%) Low Income Group 151 Mn (69%) 8 Mn (3%) 61 Mn (21%) 97 Mn (33%) 127 Mn (43%) 29 Mn (7%) 168 Mn (44%) 132 Mn (33%) 57 Mn (15%)
  • 15. Long Term Picture – India’s PMI remains brightest 15 Source – Axis Capital and Equirus Research. PMI – Purchasing Managers Index, US – United States, UK – United Kingdom. PMI >50 indicates expansion and <50 indicates contraction. Readings above 50 are shown in green color and below 50 are shown in red color. India is consistently outperforming major economies in terms of manufacturing activity India US Eurozone UK China Japan Oct-22 55.3 50.4 46.4 46.2 49.2 50.7 Nov-22 55.7 47.7 47.1 46.5 49.4 49.0 Dec-22 57.8 46.2 47.8 45.3 49.0 48.9 Jan-23 55.4 46.9 48.8 47.0 49.2 48.5 Feb-23 55.3 47.3 48.5 49.3 51.6 47.7 Mar-23 56.4 49.2 47.3 47.9 50.0 49.2 Apr-23 57.2 50.2 45.8 47.8 49.5 49.5 May-23 58.7 48.4 44.8 47.1 50.9 50.6 Jun-23 57.8 46.3 43.4 46.5 50.5 49.8 Jul-23 57.7 49 42.7 45.3 49.2 49.6 Aug-23 58.6 47.9 43.5 43 51.0 49.6 Sep-23 57.5 49.8 43.4 43.3 50.6 48.5 Oct-23 55.5 50.0 43.1 44.8 49.5 48.7
  • 16. Long term picture – Favorable Demographics 16 Data is shown on calendar year basis. Data Source: Macquarie Equity Research and Morgan Stanley. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Confluence of having younger population mix and lower wage rates braces for higher manufacturing growth in India 40.4 39.6 38.4 33.5 31.5 29.7 29.2 28.4 27.6 30.9 0 5 10 15 20 25 Singapore South Korea Taiwan China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia India Manufacturing Wage(US$/hr) 2020 2021 2022 Lower Manufacturing Wages as compared to other countries
  • 17. Long term picture – Going from strength to strength Data Source: Macquarie Research. GDP: Gross Domestic Product. Average data of 2019 to 2021 is considered. India’s overall gross savings rate remains competitive with major emerging economies Effective mobilization of savings in an economy roots for higher growth China: 44.3 Indonesia: 31.0 Thailand: 29.1 India: 28.8 Russia: 27.7 Philippines: 25.6 Malaysia: 24.8 Mexico: 24.3 Brazil: 15.0 South Africa: 14.6 Gross Domestic Savings (% of GDP)
  • 19. Market goes through Phases… 19 Boom Phase • Lehman Crisis 2008 • Dot com burst – 2001 Burst Phase • Equity Markets in 2013-16 • Equity Markets in 2009-11 • Debt Accrual Schemes in 2019 • Equity Markets in 2020 Good Time to Invest • Equity Markets in 2011 & 2017 • Equity Markets currently • Real Estate in 2013 • e-Commerce in 2014 • Bitcoin in 2017 • Equity in 2007 & 2000 Bubble Phase • Equity Markets in 2012 Boring Phase We are here!
  • 20. Why are we in a Boom Phase? 20 Indicators Current Status Fit for Boom Phase Market Returns High Market Valuations Rising Sentiments Positive Earnings Growth High Production Growth High
  • 21. (0.6) (0.3) 2.0 (6.9) 11.9 22.2 33.2 38.2 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Nifty 50 NIFTY Large Midcap 250 Nifty Midcap 150 Nifty Smallcap 250 Absolute Returns (%) 1 Year Returns as on Mar-23 1 Year Returns as on Dec-23 Boom Phase: Markets yielding higher returns 21 Markets have rebounded at a faster pace in last 6 months Source : MFI Explorer. Data as on December 06, 2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html Gains have been the highest in Midcap & Smallcap space
  • 22. 114 - 20 40 60 80 100 120 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21 Mar-22 Sep-22 Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Indian Market Cap to GDP (%) 20.90 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20 Nov-21 Nov-22 Nov-23 Nifty 50 P/E (x) Nifty 50 P/E Average Boom Phase: Valuations on the higher end 22 With market indices nearing to new record, valuations remain on the higher end Source : NSE and Nuvama Research. Data as on November 30, 2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. P/E – Price to Earning, GDP: Gross Domestic Product. Average: 94 Average: 21
  • 23. Boom Phase: Valuations on the higher end 23 India’s valuations cooled off between Sep-22 & Mar-23 Source : MFI Explorer. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. For indices considered for each country, please refer to slide 2 disclaimers. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html 29% 27% 22% 18% 18% 16% 15% 11% 8% 8% 8% 4% 3% -3% -6% -7% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Germany France Eurozone Hong Kong Taiwan US South Korea UK China Switzerland Japan Singapore India Indonesia Russia Brazil Absolute Returns (Sep 30, 2022-Mar 31, 2023) However, valuations are again on the rise… -16% -7% -6% -2%-2% 0% 0% 2% 4% 4% 8% 10% 12% 14% 19% 25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Hong Kong China Singapore UK Switzerland Eurozone France South Korea Germany Indonesia US Taiwan Russia India Japan Brazil Absolute Returns (Mar 31, 2023 - Nov 30, 2023)
  • 24. Boom Phase: Valuations on the higher end 24 Share of Market Cap – (as a % of Total Market Cap) Source: NSE. Data as on Nov 30,2023. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Red indicates high valuations, Amber indicates neutral valuations and Green indicates attractive valuations. Period Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Sum of Mid & Smallcap 2005 83 11.3 5.6 16.9 2006 81.9 11.5 6.7 18.2 2007 77.7 13.2 9.1 22.3 2008 82.7 10.9 6.4 17.3 2009 79.8 12.3 7.9 20.2 2010 78 12.5 9.4 21.9 2011 79.8 12.1 8.1 20.2 2012 77.9 13.4 8.7 22.1 2013 80.3 12.4 7.2 19.6 2014 76.8 14.1 9.1 23.2 2015 73.8 15.2 11 26.2 2016 72.9 15.3 11.8 27.1 2017 68.1 17.3 14.6 31.9 2018 72 16.3 11.7 28 Dec-19 74.9 15.6 9.5 25.1 Dec-20 74.2 15.5 10.2 25.7 Dec-21 68.7 16.8 14.5 31.3 Dec-22 69.2 16.1 14.7 30.8 Jun-23 67.5 16.9 15.6 32.5 Aug-23 64.7 17.7 17.6 35.3 Sep-23 65 17.7 17.3 35 Oct-23 64.5 17.7 17.7 35.4 Nov-23 64 18 18.1 36
  • 25. Equity Valuation Index 25 Our Equity Valuations Index suggests that valuations continue to remain in the neutral zone Equity Valuation index is calculated by assigning equal weights to Price-to-Earnings (PE), Price-to-Book (PB), G-Sec*PE and Market Cap to GDP ratio and any other factor which the AMC may add/delete from time to time.. G-Sec – Government Securities. GDP – Gross Domestic Product, Data as on November 30, 2023 has been considered. Equity Valuation Index (EVI) is a proprietary model of ICICI Prudential AMC Ltd. (the AMC) used for assessing overall equity market valuations. The AMC may also use this model for other facilities/features offered by the AMC. 109.6 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20 Nov-21 Nov-22 Nov-23 Aggressively Invest in Equities Neutral Incremental Money to Debt Book Partial Profits Invest in Equities
  • 26. (600.00) (400.00) (200.00) - 200.00 400.00 600.00 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 FPI Equity Flows (INR Bn) Boom Phase: Investor Sentiments – Positive to Neutral 26 Consistent SIP flows are driving the buying spree for Mutual Fund Houses Sentiments boosted after FPI reversed their selling strategy in India Data as on Oct 31, 2023 for Mutual Fund Flows. Data as on October 31,2023 for FPI Equity Flows. Data Source: Morgan Stanley Research and NSDL. SIP: Systematic Investment Plan. FPI; Foreign Portfolio Investors. 0 60 120 180 -250 -150 -50 50 150 250 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 SIP Flows (INR Bn) Mutual Fund Houses Flows (Ex-SIP) INR Bn Consistent SIP Flows Mutual Fund Houses Flows (Ex-SIP) Monthly SIP flows
  • 27. 5.9 6.8 -10.5 -1.6 6.9 15.8 33.3 33.9 29.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 16.4 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 2 Yrs Earnings Growth (Y-o-Y %) -1.1 14.8 -19.0 -15.7 41.0 59.0 41.9 12.7 8.3 13.9 9.8 13.9 18.2 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 1 Yr Earnings Growth (Y-o-Y %) Boom Phase: Earnings Trajectory Climbing Up 27 Data as on November 30, 2023. Data Source: Crisil Research and NSE, Earnings for Nifty 50 Companies have been considered. Returns for 1 year are calculated on absolute basis and more than 1 year are calculated on CAGR basis. Covid- Coronavirus Disease 2019. Corporate Earnings continue to gain traction at levels ahead of Pre-covid results GDP gaining momentum bodes well for corporate earnings growth
  • 28. Deep scan of GDP components 28 GDP: Gross Domestic Product, FY: Financial Year, YoY: Year on year. Source –Ministry Of Statistics & Programme Implementation. India’s GDP pegged growth of 7.6% in Q2FY24 marking an uptick across all its components GDP C I G X-M Private Consumption Gross Investment Government Spending Net Exports % share in GDP 56.8 35.3 8.9 23.2 ; 30 Share in Q2FY24 GDP % YoY change 3.1 11.0 12.3 4.3 ; 16.7 v/s Q2FY23 GDP
  • 29. 7.3 7.2 5.3 5.2 4.8 4.8 3.7 3.5 3.4 3 2.9 2.8 2.1 2 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.3 -0.1 -3.2 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Saudi Arabia India Indonesia Argentina Spain EU Australia Mexico Canada Brazil China Italy South Africa South Korea UK France United States Japan Germany Russia FY23 GDP Growth (%) Boom Phase: India’s GDP shining bright 29 Data Source: ICICI Securities. GDP: Gross Domestic Product, UK: United Kingdom, YoY: Year on Year and EU: European Union. Percentages shown above have been calculated on Year on Year basis. The G20 or Group of 20 is an intergovernmental forum comprising 19 countries and the European Union. Indian Economy is emerging as one of the fastest growing economy amongst the G20 Nations
  • 30. Summary & Outlook 30 • With changing global macro dynamics, near term vision of ‘Goldilocks’ for Indian Economy is hazy but a clear vision can be seen in the long term • With sound fundamentals and multiple structural reforms underway, the economy is at the cusp of further up- cycle in the long run • Favorable demographics and demand too bodes well for the economy • Long term structural story remains intact albeit with near term volatility owing to global growth-inflation dynamics and evolving geo-political factors and uncertainties • Post March-23, Indian equity market valuations have become richer with upbeat sentiments on growth and profitability • We believe that markets are in a boom phase and prefer large caps given the recent outperformance of mid and small cap stocks • We recommend investing in diversified equity schemes having flexibility to move across market caps/ sectors /themes coupled with Hybrid schemes that allocate across different asset classes with an aim to navigate volatility The sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this sector(s)/stock(s).
  • 32. The Month Gone By 32 Source: RBI; US Federal Reserve; Refinitiv. The sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this sector(s)/stock(s). Global bond yields cooled off rapidly in Nov 2023 after a record rise in the earlier month. Various factors such as softer inflation print, rising unemployment figures and steady economic growth in the US built up hopes of rate cuts by the US Fed in the near future. Domestic bond yields cooled alongside global bond yields, albeit not falling as much as its advanced peers. This may be likely due to tighter liquidity conditions coupled with incoming supply of bonds. Recently announced Q2:FY2023-24 gross domestic product estimates beat market expectations, rising 7.6% on-year for the quarter ended Sep 30, 2023. This was higher than the RBI’s projections of 6.5%. Europe remains the poster child for the worsening global economic climate, but Canada is also entering a downturn, and growth in China has stalled. Growth in the US has been surprisingly persistent in 2023, but it is increasingly subdued.
  • 33. The Month Gone By – Yield Movement 33 Data as on Nov 30, 2023. Source – RBI. The benchmark 10-year bond yield cooled down to 7.28% on Nov 30, 2023, down 8 bps from Oct 31, 2023. Factors such as positive global cues and softer inflation print stoked rally in bonds. 7.15% 7.20% 7.25% 7.30% 7.35% 7.40% 31/Oct/23 2/Nov/23 4/Nov/23 6/Nov/23 8/Nov/23 10/Nov/23 12/Nov/23 14/Nov/23 16/Nov/23 18/Nov/23 20/Nov/23 22/Nov/23 24/Nov/23 26/Nov/23 28/Nov/23 30/Nov/23 India Benchmark 10-year G-Sec Yield India’s inflation cools to 4.9% in Oct 2023 US Fed kept interest rates unchanged Moody’s downgrades US debt rating outlook to negative RBI tightens norms on consumer credit Dovish statement by US Fed hinting for a potential rate cut in March 2024
  • 34. Yield Curve and Credit Spreads 34 Data as on Nov 30, 2023. Source – RBI; CCIL, Refinitiv. Rise in bond yields was visible across the yield curve. The short-end was affected by tighter liquidity conditions. 7.0% 7.1% 7.2% 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Bond Maturity in Years G-Sec Yield Curve 30-Nov-23 31-Oct-23 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 31/Oct 03/Nov 06/Nov 09/Nov 12/Nov 15/Nov 18/Nov 21/Nov 24/Nov 27/Nov 30/Nov in bps Credit Spreads Over G-Sec of Comparable Tenure 1Yr-AAA 3Yr-AAA 5Yr-AAA Credit spreads compressed in the shorter-end of the curve due to greater rise in G-Sec yields of comparable tenure.
  • 35. Overnight Interest Rates Touch the Ceiling 35 Data as on Nov 30, 2023. Source – RBI. System Liquidity remained in deficit for major part of Nov 2023. Cash-deficit banks tapped the RBI’s marginal standing facility (MSF) window to borrow cash overnight at the penal rate of 6.75%, which, in turn, pushed up overnight yields to the same level. -50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 6.6% 6.7% 6.8% 6.9% 31/Oct /23 01/Nov /23 02/Nov /23 03/Nov /23 04/Nov /23 05/Nov /23 06/Nov /23 07/Nov /23 08/Nov /23 09/Nov /23 10/Nov /23 11/Nov /23 12/Nov /23 13/Nov /23 14/Nov /23 15/Nov /23 16/Nov /23 17/Nov /23 18/Nov /23 19/Nov /23 20/Nov /23 21/Nov /23 22/Nov /23 23/Nov /23 24/Nov /23 25/Nov /23 26/Nov /23 27/Nov /23 28/Nov /23 29/Nov /23 30/Nov /23 System Liquidity (Rs. Cr) Call Rate System Liquidity and Impact on Call Rate Liquidity Call Rate
  • 36. Key Highlights 36 Data as on Nov 30, 2023. Source – Investing.com; RBI’s Lending and Deposit Rates of Scheduled Commercial Banks - November 2023. Data lags by 1 month. The gap between lending and deposit rates has narrowed owing to rush to chase deposits amid tight liquidity conditions The 10-year US Treasury bond yield cooled rapidly amid favorable macro developments 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Interest Rate on Outstanding Deposits and Loans Deposit Rate Lending Rate 4.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 5.0% 31/Oct 02/Nov 04/Nov 06/Nov 08/Nov 10/Nov 12/Nov 14/Nov 16/Nov 18/Nov 20/Nov 22/Nov 24/Nov 26/Nov 28/Nov 30/Nov 10-year US Treasury Bond
  • 38. The Big Picture 38 Source – spglobal.com , rbi.org.in , cga.nic.in. On the currency front, the Indian Rupee fell 0.2% to settle at Rs 83.39 on Nov 30, compared with Rs 83.25 on Oct 31, 2023, despite weaker dollar index, hinting at possible RBI intervention in currency markets to mop-up dollars. The RBI’s foreign exchange reserves ballooned to $597.9 billion as on Nov 24, 2023, up from $590.8 billion on Nov 3, 2023. Fiscal data, which comes with a 1 month lag, showed fiscal deficit reaching 45% of Budget Estimates up till Oct 31, 2023. Deficit was at 45.6% in the corresponding period of the previous year. Bank credit growth reported a jump of 16.2% on-year as on Nov 17, 2023, excluding the balance sheet impact from the HDFC twin merger. Deposits grew 12.9% on-year in the same period. Following a synchronized rise in policy rates, growth is now unsynchronized across major economies. The US is outperforming whereas in Europe activity is flat. The common macro thread comprises strong labor markets and spending on services, fiscal tailwinds and lingering core price pressures. Inflation has likely peaked as have policy rates, but central banks are on guard against declaring victory too early. (S&P Global)
  • 39. Fiscal – Capex Boom 39 Fiscal data lags by 1 month. Data shown is as on Oct 31, 2023. Source: cga.nic.in. FY – financial year. Capital expenditure spending reached ₹5.5 lakh crore in Apr- Oct 2023, 54.7% of budget estimates. Cumulative market borrowings rebounded in Oct 2023 vis-à- vis previous year on higher bond supply. - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Cumulative Capital Expenditure (Rs. '00 Crore) FY23-24 FY22-23 - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Cumulative Market Borrowings (Rs. '00 Cr) FY23-24 FY22-23
  • 40. Monetary – Credit Growth & Tight Liquidity Worries 40 # - Up Till Oct 22, 2023. Data as on Nov 30, 2023. Source: rbi.org.in. OMO – Open Market Operations. Bank credit growth has outpaced deposit growth on a sustained basis, as economic growth continues its momentum Liquidity conditions remained tight and even worsened with MSF borrowings crossing ₹2 lakh crore on Nov 21, 2023. 120 130 140 150 160 Nov-22 Dec-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Aggregate Credit of Scheduled Commercial Banks (in lakh crore) 16.2% YoY Growth - 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 200,000 240,000 280,000 31/Oct/23 02/Nov/23 04/Nov/23 06/Nov/23 08/Nov/23 10/Nov/23 12/Nov/23 14/Nov/23 16/Nov/23 18/Nov/23 20/Nov/23 22/Nov/23 24/Nov/23 26/Nov/23 28/Nov/23 30/Nov/23 Bank’s Cash Movement in RBI’s Liquidity Facilities (in Rs. Crore) Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) Standing Deposit Facility (SDF)
  • 41. Economic – Expansion Mode On 41 Data as on Nov 30, 2023. Source – CEIC. S&P Global. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors. Time taken for clearing residential real estate listings has reduced, close to where it used to be in 2009-11. India’s purchasing manager index continued to trail above 50, indicating expansion mode and increase in factory activity. - 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Q1-2008 Q4-2008 Q3-2009 Q2-2010 Q1-2011 Q4-2011 Q3-2012 Q2-2013 Q1-2014 Q4-2014 Q3-2015 Q2-2016 Q1-2017 Q4-2017 Q3-2018 Q2-2019 Q1-2020 Q4-2020 Q3-2021 Q2-2022 Q1-2023 Q4-2023 Inventory Overhang in months 56.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 60.0 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index
  • 42. Global – India Stands Out 42 Data as on Nov 30, 2023. Source – OECD - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; RBI. OECD projects India to grow at 6.3% on-year in 2023; among the highest globally. India saw higher inflows in bond markets vis-à-vis equity markets as yields look attractive at a global scale 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Brazil Canada China Germany India Indonesia Japan United Kingdom United States OECD's GDP Growth Forecasts (Nov '23; YoY) 2025 2024 7.28% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Brazil India Australia USA UK China Euro Zone Japan 10-year Govt. Bond Yield
  • 43. Our Assessment 43 The ‘FMEG’ Framework shows a consolidated view of the factors affecting debt markets Fiscal Economic Monetary Global STRONG STRONG NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
  • 44. Outlook on Fixed Income 44 Yields data source : CCIL. We believe that monetary policy will continue to remain neutral, with a relatively low chance of major shift in policy stance. Economic indicators have shown steady growth, and hence, monetary policy can maintain a hands-off approach for the time being. Over the past one year, the yield curve has flattened from its steep levels. This is in sync with the change in phase of the economic growth cycle, moving from recovery and into expansion phase. We believe the expansion cycle could go on for long, unless growth-inflation dynamics shift considerably. Like-wise, interest rates could also remain elevated and range-bound during the expansion phase. We suggest limiting duration up to 3 years; taking tactical calls on long-duration and focusing on accrual assets.
  • 45. Why We Think We Are in Expansion Phase 45 Source: RBI; Public Information Bureau; CCIL. This shows that we are indeed in the Middle of the Expansion Phase and As Growth remains strong there is a Low Probability of Rate Cuts Signals Value Indicator GDP Forecast for FY24 Inflation Forecast for FY24 Capacity Utilization (Q2FY23-24) Credit Growth (Nov 2023) G-Sec Yield Curve Change (Mar 31, 2022 to Nov 30, 2023) Among the fastest globally Within tolerable range At Long Term Average Above Recovery Levels Moving from Steep to Flattish 6.5% 5.4% 74% >15% YoY +284 bps (1Y); +46 bps (10Y)
  • 46. Fixed-Income Approach: Focus on Accruals 46 Data as on Nov 30, 2023. Debt Valuation Index considers WPI, CPI, Sensex returns, Gold returns and Real estate returns over G-Sec yield, Current Account Balance, Fiscal Balance, Credit Growth and Crude Oil Movement for calculation. RBI – Reserve Bank of India. Debt Valuation Index is a proprietary model of ICICI Prudential AMC Ltd. (the AMC) used for assessing overall debt valuations. The AMC may also use this model for other facilities/features offered by the AMC and any other factor which the AMC may add/delete from time to time. 3.24 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Apr 2014 Nov 2015 Jun 2017 Jan 2019 Aug 2020 Mar 2022 Oct 2023 Aggressive Highly Aggressive Very Cautious Cautious Moderate Due to rise in bond yields, our model suggests adding some duration. Overall, however, our stance remains CAUTIOUS towards duration. This means ACCRUALS + Limited Duration seems suitable in the current scenario. Nov 2023
  • 47. Our Choice for Accruals + Limited Duration 47 IPRU – ICICI Prudential. The Yield to Maturity (YTM) mentioned is based on scheme portfolio dated Nov 30, 2023. YTM is the rate of return of a bond if held until maturity. This should not be considered as an indication of the returns that maybe generated by the scheme. The securities bought by the scheme may or may not be held till their respective maturities. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. YTMs of most of the debt mutual fund categories have improved, making the risk-reward attractive Investment Avenues for Savings Core Portfolio Allocation 4.76% 5.44% 5.75% 6.75% 6.88% 7.19% 7.79% 7.85% 8.19% 8.05% 8.31% 8.69% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund ICICI Prudential Savings Fund ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund Change in YTM of Accrual Focused Debt Schemes of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund 30-Apr-22 30-Nov-23
  • 48. Our Current Portfolio Positioning – Limited Duration 48 Data as on Nov 30, 2023. The Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price. Modified Duration is the price sensitivity and the percentage change in price for a unit change in yield. Scheme Average Maturity Macaulay Duration Modified Duration ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund 0.11 Years 0.10 Years 0.10 Years ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund 0.33 Years 0.32 Years 0.30 Years ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund 0.40 Years 0.39 Years 0.36 Years ICICI Prudential Savings Fund 2.43 Years 0.93 Years 0.87 Years ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund 6.96 Years 1.27 Years 1.2 Years ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund 3.66 Years 1.98 Years 1.86 Years ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund 3.55 Years 2.27 Years 2.15 Years ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund 4.52 Years 2.47 Years 2.34 Years ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 4.64 Years 2.36 Years 2.25 Years ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund 5.02 Years 3.37 Years 3.22 Years ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund 5.54 Years 3.32 Years 3.18 Years
  • 49. Our Current Portfolio Positioning – Focus on Accruals 49 Data as on Nov 30, 2023. The Yield to Maturity (YTM) mentioned is based on scheme portfolios dated Nov 30, 2023. YTM is the rate of return anticipated on a bond if held until maturity. This should not be considered as an indication of the returns that maybe generated by the scheme. The securities bought by the scheme may or may not be held till their respective maturities. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future, *Includes TREPS & Net Current Assets, ^ Includes Treasury Bills. Scheme AAA & Equivalent Exposure AA & Equivalent and Below Exposure YTM ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund 11.6% 61.9% 8.69% ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund 14.6% 42.0% 8.31% ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund 22.6% 9.2% 8.19% ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund 10.6% 25.0% 8.05% ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 38.0% 12.8% 7.99% ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund 72.3% - 7.99% ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund 70.2% - 7.88% ICICI Prudential Savings Fund 68.7% 3.7% 7.85% ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund 70.6% 15.3% 7.79% ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund 83.4% - 7.56% ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund 83.7% 0.1% 7.33%
  • 50. To Summarize… 50 Term spreads remain modest and hence portfolio duration should be limited Fixed income space continues to remain attractive Short to moderate duration schemes are preferred as we are in an interest-rate-pause cycle Dynamic duration scheme remains our top recommendation Focus on accruals in the current scenario of high interest rates Global central banks action may keep the market volatile
  • 51. Investment Approach and Scheme Recommendations
  • 52. Investment Playbook for 2023 – An era of Multiple Asset Classes 52 Category Outlook Our View Scheme Recommendations Equity Valuations moderated but remains in NEUTRAL zone. Long term ‘POSITIVE’ IPRU Business Cycle Fund, IPRU Flexicap Fund , IPRU Value Discovery Fund Asset Allocation/ Hybrid Volatility expected to persist IPRU Balanced Advantage Fund, IPRU Multi-Asset Fund, IPRU Equity & Debt Fund Fixed Income High yields making the space attractive IPRU Ultra Short Term Fund, IPRU Short Term Fund, IPRU Credit Risk Fund, IPRU All Seasons Bond Fund Positive Neutral IPRU – ICICI Prudential. Asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document.
  • 54. 54 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund (An open ended equity scheme following business cycles based investing theme) is suitable for investors whoare seeking*:  Long term wealth creation  An equity scheme that invests in Indian markets with focus on riding business cycles through dynamic allocation between various sectors and stocks at different stages of business cycles *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fund (An open ended dynamic equity scheme investing across large cap, mid cap & small cap stocks) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term wealth creation  An open ended dynamic equity scheme investing across large cap, mid cap and small cap stocks *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on November 30, 2023 Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details. ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund (An open ended scheme investing in Equity, Debt and Exchange Traded Commodity Derivatives/units of Gold ETFs/units of REITs & InvITs/ Preference shares) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long Term Wealth Creation  An open ended scheme investing across asset classes *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
  • 55. 55 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund (An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy.)is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term wealth creation  An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on November 30, 2023 Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details. ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund (An open ended dynamic asset allocation fund) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term capital appreciation/income  Investing in equity and equity related securities and debt instruments *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund (An open ended hybrid scheme investing predominantly in equity and equity related instruments) is suitable for investors whoare seeking*:  Long term wealth creation solution  A balanced fund aiming for long term capital appreciation and current income by investing in equity as well as fixed income securities *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
  • 56. Riskometers Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The below riskometers are as on Nov 30, 2023. Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news- and-updates/all-news for more details. ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund (An open ended debt scheme investing in money market instruments. A relatively low interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk.) Investors understand that their principal will be at Low To Moderate Risk This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*: • Short term savings • A money market scheme that seeks to provide reasonable returns, commensurate with low risk and providing a high level of liquidity ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund (An open ended liquid scheme. A relatively low interest rate risk and moderate credit risk.) Investors understand that their principal will be at Moderate Risk This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*: • Short term savings solution • A liquid fund that aims to provide reasonable returns commensurate with low risk and providing a high level of liquidity ICICI Prudential Savings Fund (An open ended low duration debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay Duration of the portfolio is between 6 months and 12 months. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk.) Investors understand that their principal will be at Low To Moderate Risk This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*: • Short term savings • An open ended low duration scheme that aims to maximize income by investing in debt and money market instruments while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity. ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund (An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in Debt instruments of banks, Public Sector Undertakings, Public Financial Institutions and Municipal bonds. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk.) Investors understand that their principal will be at Moderate Risk This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*: • Short term savings • An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in debt instruments of banks, Public Sector Undertakings, Public Financial Institutions and Municipal Bonds 56
  • 57. Riskometers 57 ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund (An open ended dynamic debt scheme investing across duration. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk.) Investors understand that their principal will be at Moderate Risk This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*: • All duration savings • A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity. ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund (An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA and below rated corporate bonds. A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively high credit risk.) Investors understand that their principal will be at High Risk This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*: • Medium term savings • A debt scheme that aims to generate income through investing in AA and below rated corporate bonds while maintaining the optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity. ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund (An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments (including fixed rate instruments converted to floating rate exposures using swaps/derivatives). A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk.) Investors understand that their principal will be at Low To Moderate Risk This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*: • Short term savings • An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments. ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund (An open ended scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio between 3 months and 6 months. A moderate interest rate risk and moderate credit risk.) Investors understand that their principal will be at Moderate Risk This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*: • Short term regular income • An open ended ultra-short debt scheme investing in a range of debt and money market instruments. Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The below riskometers are as on Nov 30, 2023. Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news- and-updates/all-news for more details.
  • 58. Riskometers 58 Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The below riskometers are as on Nov 30, 2023. Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news- and-updates/all-news for more details. ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund (An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA+ or above rated corporate bonds. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk.) Investors understand that their principal will be at Low to Moderate Risk This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*: • Short term savings • An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in highest rate corporate bonds. ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund (An open ended short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 1 Year and 3 Years. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk.) Investors understand that their principal will be at Moderate Risk This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*: • Short term income generation and capital appreciation solution • A debt fund that aims to generate income by investing in a range of debt and money market instruments of various maturities. ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund (An open ended medium term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 3 Years and 4 Years. The Macaulay duration of the portfolio is 1 Year to 4 years under anticipated adverse situation. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk) Investors understand that their principal will be at Moderately High Risk This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*: • Medium term savings • A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
  • 59. YTM Disclaimer 59 As per AMFI Best Practices Guidelines Circular No. AMFI/ 35P/ MEM-COR/ 72 / 2022-23 dated December 31, 2022 on Standard format for disclosure Portfolio YTM for Debt Schemes, Yield of the instrument is disclosed on annualized basis as provided by Valuation agencies. *in case of semi annual YTM, it will be annualized. The Yield to Maturity (YTM) mentioned is based on scheme portfolio dated Nov 30, 2023. YTM is the rate of return of a bond if held until maturity. This should not be considered as an indication of the returns that maybe generated by the scheme. The securities bought by the scheme may or may not be held till their respective maturities. Scheme Name ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund Description An open ended debt scheme investing in money market instruments. A relatively low interest rate risk and moderate credit risk ICICI Prudential Savings Fund An open ended low duration debt schem investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 6 months and 12 months. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk. ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments (including fixed rate instruments converted to floating rate exposures using swaps/derivatives). A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in Debt instruments of banks, Public Sector Undertakings, Public Financial Institutions and Municipal bonds. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk. ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA+ and above rated corporate bonds. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk. An open ended dynamic debt scheme investing across duration. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk. Annualised Portfolio YTM*: 7.56% 7.85% 8.19% 7.88% 7.99% 8.05% Residual Maturity 118.80 Days 2.43 Years 6.96 Years 4.52 Years 3.66 Years 5.54 Years Macaulay Duration 117.51 Days 0.93 Years 1.27 Years 2.47 Years 1.98 Years 3.32 Years ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund
  • 60. YTM Disclaimer 60 As per AMFI Best Practices Guidelines Circular No. AMFI/ 35P/ MEM-COR/ 72 / 2022-23 dated December 31, 2022 on Standard format for disclosure Portfolio YTM for Debt Schemes, Yield of the instrument is disclosed on annualized basis as provided by Valuation agencies. *in case of semi annual YTM, it will be annualized. The Yield to Maturity (YTM) mentioned is based on scheme portfolio dated Nov 30, 2023. YTM is the rate of return of a bond if held until maturity. This should not be considered as an indication of the returns that maybe generated by the scheme. The securities bought by the scheme may or may not be held till their respective maturities. Scheme Name ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund Description An open ended short term debt schem investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 1 Year and 3 Years. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk. ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund An open ended liquid scheme. A relatively low interest rate risk and moderate credit risk. ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA and below rated corporate bonds. A relatively high interes rate risk and relatively high credit risk ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund An Open Ended medium term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 3 Years and 4 Years The Macaulay duration of the portfolio is 1 Year to 4 years under anticipated adverse situation. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk. ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 3 months and 6 months. A moderate interest rate risk and moderate credit risk Annualised Portfolio YTM*: 7.99% 7.33% 8.69% 8.31% 7.79% Residual Maturity 4.64 Years 0.11 Years 3.55 Years 5.02 Years 0.40 Years Macaulay Duration 2.36 Years 0.10 Years 2.27 Years 3.37 Years 0.39 Years
  • 61. Potential Risk Class Matrix 61 The Potential risk class (PRC) matrix based on interest rate risk and credit risk. ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund ICICI Prudential Savings Fund, ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund, ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund, ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund, ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund, ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund, ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund
  • 62. 62 Riskometers All figures and other data given in this document are dated as of November 30, 2023 unless stated otherwise. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (the AMC). Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, the AMC has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in- house. Some of the material(s) used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. The Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price.