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A Paradigm Shift
ANNUAL OUTLOOK : 2024
2
Recap 2023 –
India shines right and bright
Global headwinds dominated markets in 2023. S&P BSE Sensex however,
kept touching new highs and ended the year on a positive note (+17%)
Source: BSE, NSDL, www.federalreserve.gov, www.indiabudget.gov.in, www.india.gov.in, www.economictimes.indiatimes.com . Data as of Dec 22, 2023. US Fed – United States
Federal Reserve, RBI – Reserve Bank of India, FII – Foreign Institutional Investors, bbl – barrel, COVID – Coronavirus Disease. Past performance may or may not sustain in future
55000
58000
61000
64000
67000
70000
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
S&P BSE Sensex
Pro-growth Union
Budget cheers
markets
Collapse of a US
based bank
Strong domestic
earnings +
FII buying
Strong Q1 GDP data
in US allays recession
fears
India Q1FY24
GDP at 7.8%
BoJ tweaks its
bond yield control
policy
Japan headline
inflation touches
3.3%
Hamas –
Israel conflict
Incumbent party
wins state
elections in
3 states
A US based Short
seller's report on
Indian conglomerate
Dovish statement by
US Fed
3
Global Markets Performance Wrap 2023:
Japan wakes from the slumber
• After years of muted
performance, Japan
delivered good returns
due to the dynamic duo
of Governance reforms +
Rising inflation
• China & Hong Kong
remained laggards due
to slow economic
recovery
Germany - DAX Index; China - SSE Composite Index; Japan - Nikkei; Eurozone - Euronext 100; Hong Kong - HangSeng; US - Dow Jones; U.K. - FTSE; Brazil - Ibovespa Sao Paulo
Index; Taiwan – Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation; India – S&P BSE Sensex; Data Source: Nuvama Research. Returns are absolute returns for the index calculated between Dec
31, 2022 – Dec 22, 2023. Map source: Map not to scale. This map has been used for design and representational purpose only, it does not depict the geographical boundaries of the
country. Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
United States: 13%
Brazil: 37%
Germany: 23%
Europe: 16%
UK: 9%
India: 16%
Hong Kong: -18%
China: -9% Japan: 17%
Taiwan: 23%
4
Indian Markets: Who is the show stopper?
Data as on Dec 22,2023. Data Source: BSE. Returns have been calculated on absolute basis. CYTD: Calendar Year Till Date. For Power Sector- S&P BSE Power TRI , Bankex
Sector- S&P BSE Bankex TRI , FMCG Sector- S&P BSE FMCG TRI , Energy Sector- S&P BSE Energy TRI , For CG Sector - S&P BSE CG Index , Auto Sector- S&P BSE AUTO Index , Oil
& Gas Sector- S&P BSE Oil & Gas TRI Index , Finance Sector- S&P BSE Financial Services TRI , Metal Sector S&P BSE METAL TRI , Infra Sector -S&P BSE India Infrastructure Index ,
Telecom Sector- S&P BSE Telecom TRI , HC Sector- S&P BSE HC TRI , Realty Sector- S&P BSE Realty TRI , CD Sector - S&P BSE CD TRI , IT Sector- S&P BSE IT TRI is considered.
For Large Cap: S&P BSE Sensex, Mid Cap: S&P BSE Midcap Index and Small Cap: S&P BSE Smallcap Index is considered. CG: Capital Goods, HC: Health Care, CD: Consumer
Durables, IT: Information Technology
Market Cap
Performance
CYTD-23 (%)
17%
76%
64%
54%
42%
34% 34%
30% 29%
26% 25% 24%
17% 16% 15%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Realty
CG
Infra
Auto
HC
Power
Metal
IT
FMCG
Telecom
CD
Finance
Energy
Oil
&
Gas
Bankex
2023 - Performance (Absolute Returns %)
Large Cap
42%
Mid Cap
45%
Small Cap
5
Asset class wise performance – Go Global!
CY 2023 Absolute Returns
Gold
(USD/oz)
Silver
(USD/oz)
Brent Crude
(USD Barrel)
US Dollar
Index (DXY)
MSCI
World Index
MSCI India
Index
MSCI
Emerging
Market Index
India 10Y
G-Sec*
US 10Y
Treasury*
12% 2% -7.6% -1.6% 19% 17% 4% 7.3% 3.1%
Asset Class / Index
Data Source: Nuvama Research. Data as on Dec 22,2023 is considered. Oz: Ounce, G-sec: Government Securities, Y: year, USD: US Dollar, *BLOOMBERG INDIAN GOVT
BOND 10 Year Total Return (USD) used for India 10 Year G-Sec returns & Bloomberg US GOVT. 10 Year Term Index Total Return used for US 10Y Treasury Returns
Witness the Paradigm Shift,
this New Year!
7
PROLOGUE
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen” a very apt quote by Vladimir Ilyich Lenin that
perfectly fits recent market dynamics. Seems like yesterday when COVID crisis struck, globally affecting growth & inflation and Central Banks
tried supporting their economies by announcing stimulus packages. Not to forget the two wars (Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas) that are
adding to global supply chain woes
In our Annual Outlook for 2023 titled “Beginning of a new era”, we had highlighted how a new era of high inflation, high interest rates, geo-political
tensions and volatility has begun and that this will become the new norm. At that time there was uncertainty as to how India will navigate global
headwinds. One year down the line, Indian macros stay resilient amidst challenging global backdrop marking a ‘Paradigm Shift’ in domestic and
global trends
As we usher into the new year, we can sense an air of fragility in global macros, on the contrary India is breaking-out of the Frail economy tag
and is emerging as the growth engine for the world with resilient macros, favorable demographics, sustainable demand and structural
reforms. This marks a major ‘Paradigm Shift’ wherein global economies are turning fragile and Indian economy seems stronger than ever.
8
Paradigm Shift –
An Overview of Global & Domestic Macros
Global Domestic
Fragile Global Macros
Soaring Debt Levels
Contractionary Policy Measures
Heightened Geo-Political
tensions
Resilient Macros
Healthy balance sheets
Strong domestic demand
Structural Reforms
Global
PARADIGM SHIFT –
Fragile Global Macros
10
Paradigm Shift – Fragile Global Macros
Central Banks of major Advanced Economies are opting for contractionary measures –
hiking policy rates & tapering down balance sheets, in their fight against inflation
Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org ,Morgan Stanley. USD – US Dollar, Bn, Billion, bps – basis points, US – United States, EA – Euro Area, US Fed – US Federal
Reserve, BoE – Bank of England, ECB – European Central Bank. Balance Sheet data as of Sep 2023, rate hike data as of Dec 15, 2023
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
Jan-20
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Policy Rates (%)
US Fed Target Rate (Upper Band, %)
UK Policy Rate (%)
Euro Area Rate (%)
3760
7908
5711
8560
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jan-07
Nov-07
Sep-08
Jul-09
May-10
Mar-11
Jan-12
Nov-12
Sep-13
Jul-14
May-15
Mar-16
Jan-17
Nov-17
Sep-18
Jul-19
May-20
Mar-21
Jan-22
Nov-22
Sep-23
Balance Sheet (USD Bn)
Balance Sheet (USD Bn) US Balance Sheet (USD Bn) EA
Long way to
go to reach
pre-pandemic levels
11
Paradigm Shift – Fragile Global Macros
High policy rates are making it difficult to service the bloated balance sheets of Central Banks
Source: Nuvama, Morgan Stanley. USD – US Dollar, Bn – Billion, WWII – World War 2, GDP – Gross Domestic Product. Data as of Sep 2023 for US Govt. debt to
GDP & July 31, 2023 for Interest payments
544
981
200
400
600
800
1000
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
US Federal government current expenditures:
Interest payments (USD Bn)
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Sep-1923
Sep-1933
Sep-1943
Sep-1953
Sep-1963
Sep-1973
Sep-1983
Sep-1993
Sep-2003
Sep-2013
Sep-2023
US government debt to GDP (%)
Near WWII
levels!
12
Paradigm Shift – Fragile Global Macros
A series of geo-political crises is bringing significant uncertainty and fragility to macros
US-CHINA WAR
GULF
TENSIONS
Long standing issues over
multiple topics – Taiwan, tech
decoupling & trade tensions
The Russia-Ukraine +
Hamas-Israel war seems
far from over, disturbing
global supply chains
The on-going wars have
led to country blocs on
both sides disturbing
national relations
PARADIGM SHIFT –
Strong Domestic Picture
14
Paradigm Shift –
Strong Domestic Picture
India’s Rocket may take off being fueled by four growth engines
Table Turning
Macros
Key Players Holding
their ground
• Government
• Banks
• Corporates
• Households
Reform Rush
• Capex gaining
priority
• Manufacturing
in focus
Demand:
Untapped Potential
• Favorable
Demographics
• Wider scope of
penetration
15
Table Turning Macros
India has shed its ‘Fragile Five’ tag and is now going from strength-to-strength with its robust macros
Data is shown for Financial Year unless otherwise mentioned. Data Source: Equirus Research and Nuvama Research. Covid refers to Coronavirus Disease 2019, CPI: Consumer
Price Index, GDP: Gross Domestic Product, FDI: Foreign Direct Investment, Govt.: Government, Capex: Capital Expenditure, Bn: Billion, Cr: Crore. ^Data is of calendar year.
#Data as on June 30,2023 @Data as on Nov 30,2023 *Data for FY 22-23. ! Data till Sep 30,2023
Taper Tantrum
(2013-14)
Global Financial Crisis
(2008-09)
Covid-19
(2020-21)
Current
(FYTD)
CPI Inflation (%) 10.4 8.4 7.2 5.5@
GDP Growth (%) 3.1 6.4 -5.8 7.2*
India’s share in World Exports
(%)^
1.2 1.7 1.7 1.8
Net FDI Flows ($, Bn) 22.4 21.6 43.9 4.9!
Govt. Capex Spends (INR Cr) 90,158 1,87,675 3,46,919 9,18,024&
GDP Per Capita ($, Current
Prices)
1,014 1,560 1,913 2,392
Forex Reserves ($, Bn) 278.0 288.3 547.3 594.3
Govt. Debt to GDP (%) 74 67 89 83#
Particulars
16
Key Players holding their ground – Govt.
India’s declining Fiscal deficit trends, aided by strong tax collections,
continue to cement pillars of Govt. balance sheet
9.2%
5.9%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
E
Central Govt. Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)
11.2%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
Tax
to
GDP
(%)
Tax
Collections
(INR
Bn)
Tax Collections to GDP
Direct Tax Indirect Tax Total Tax to GDP
Data is as on March 31,2023. Data Source: Avendus Spark and Ministry of Statistical and Programme Implementation (https://www.mospi.gov.in) GDP: Gross Domestic
Product, Govt.: Government, Bn: Billion. E: Estimates. Tax collections considered is of Central Govt. only
2023
17
Key Players holding their ground – Banks
Well capitalized banks, falling NPAs and rising credit off-take
is one of the key catalyst for India’s growth
Data Source: Nuvama Research & Avendus Spark. Tn: Trillion, Bn: Billion, Agg.: Aggregate, NPA: Non Performing Assets, FY: Financial Year, FYTD: Financial Year Till Date. Data
is as on Sep 30,2023 is considered for FYTD data. For Bank’s Balance Sheet Health: Data is as on March 31,2023. ^Data sourced from RBI as on Dec 22,2023
Growth Indicators of the Banking Sector
6.0
0.9
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
Net
NPAs
(%)
Capital
Adequacy
Ratio
(%)
Banks’ Balance Sheet Health
Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) Net NPAs
Particulars FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FYTD
Agg. Credit
(INR Tn)
109.5 118.9 136.8 154.4
Agg. Deposits
(INR Tn)
151.1 164.7 180.4 195.1
Credit Growth
(%)
5.6 8.6 15.0 16.4^
Deposit Growth
(%)
11.4 8.9 9.6 12.7^
Net Interest
Margin (%)
3.3 3.3 3.7 --
18
Key Players holding their ground –
Corporates
Corporate Balance sheets have turned out to be less leveraged and more profitable
boosting the corporate earnings cycle
62%
52%
55%
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
F2013
F2014
F2015
F2016
F2017
F2018
F2019
F2020
F2021
F2022
F2023E
F2024E
F2025E
Corporate Debt (% of GDP)
3.7%
5.2%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
Corporate Profit to GDP (%)
Corporate Debt reduced over the
years reflect lower reliance on
external finances
Steady GDP momentum creates
conducive environment for businesses
Data is as on March 31,2023. Data Source: Morgan Stanley and Avendus Spark. F: Financial Year. FY: Financial Year. E: Estimates. GDP: Gross Domestic Product. Past
performance may or may not sustain in future.
19
Key Players holding their ground –
Household
Expanding wallets of the households with less leveraged balance sheet
bodes well for uptick in household consumption
Data for Consumption Expenditure is Financial Year data. Data for Household Debt is calendar year data. Data Source: Equirus Research and Morgan Stanley. Past
performance may or may not sustain in future.
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (INR, Per Capita)
Estimate
China
Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Taiwan
Thailand
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000
GDP per capita (PPP, Current International Dollar, 2021)
Household Debt to GDP
20
Demand – Untapped Potential
India has a wider scope of penetration in goods consumption and increased urbanization trends can
further fuel the discretionary spending
Data Source: Avendus Spark and Macquarie Research. E: Estimates. Data for white goods consumption is for Calendar Year 2021. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. *Source:
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/urban-rural-populations.html
Auto
Outbound
Trips
Air
Conditioners
Refrigerators
Smartphone
Users
Internet Users
4%
6%
8%
18%
37%
58%
15%
9%
60%
94%
54%
60%
81%
42%
90%
100%
83%
95%
Products India China USA
India has larger scope to penetrate in white goods consumption with
Rising income levels
80*
61 56
35
USA China World
Average
India
21
Demand – Untapped Potential
Domestic demand is likely to rise with increasing working age population
and changing consumption patterns
Data Source: Morgan Stanley and Macquarie Research. Data is shown for calendar year, E: Estimates
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
2028
2032
2036
2040
2044
2048
Working Age Population Ratio
India World ex India
Estimates
87%
2010
2000 2020 2030E
67%
33%
Discretionary Spends Essential Spends
13%
79% 76%
21% 24%
Average Household Consumption Spend
22
Reform Rush
Indian economy is likely to benefit from the zeal of Govt.’s reform rush
^Data is sourced from (https://thedailyguardian.com/merits-of-the-insolvency-and-bankruptcy-code-2016/). #Data of CY 22 Source: (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unified_Payments_Interface#Market_share). *Source:
(https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/infrastructure/report-card-on-2nd-anniversary-pm-gati-shakti-gives-gati-to-11-58-lakh-cr-infrastructure-projects/articleshow/104381021.cms. &: Data Source:
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1882145#:~:text=These%20include%20introduction%20of%20Goods,Manufacturing %20Programme%20(PMP)%2C%20to UPI: Unified Payments Interface, PM: Pradhan Mantri,
Govt.: Government, Tn: Trillion, GST: Goods & Service Tax.
To boost domestic manufacturing. Outlay of
1.97 Lakh Cr announced for 14 key sectors&
PRODUCTION LINKED INCENTIVE (2020)
INSOLVENCY & BANKRUPTCY CODE (2016)
Aiming for insolvency resolution in time bound manner
(191% realization to financial creditors^)
GST & CORPORATE TAX CUTS (2017 and 2019)
One tax system removing cascading and corporate
rate cuts to improve profitability
REAL ESTATE REGULATION AUTHORITY (2016)
Regulating Real Estate Sector & protecting home
buyers
PM GATI SHAKTI (2021)
Multi-Modal Infrastructure Connectivity (Evaluated
more than 300 projects worth Rs 11.58 Lakh Crore*)
UPI (2016)
Facilitating Digital Transactions (Represents 62% of
digital transactions in FY22-23# Approx Value: 126 Tn#)
23
Reform Rush – Capex gaining priority
Govt.’s high quality expenditure towards Capex forms a strong bedrock for future sustainable growth
Data is as on Oct 31,2023. Data Source: JM Financial and Avendus Spark Capital. FY: Financial Year. 7M: Seven Months, Govt.: Government. Capex: Capital Expenditure
, Govt.: Government, Revex: Revenue Expenditure, Bn: Billion
Segments
Central Govt. Spends (INR Bn)
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 7M FY24
Capex 3,356 4,256 5,921 7,363 5,469
Road 673 874 1,133 2,060 1,716
Railways 678 1,093 1,173 1,593 1,567
Defense 1,111 1,344 1,380 1,429 703
Water 183 160 663 597 387
Housing 193 103 259 237 123
92
83 88
79 80
8
17 12
21 20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Oct-19
Oct-20
Oct-21
Oct-22
Oct-23
Proportion of Total Expenditure (%)
Revex Capex
24
Reform Rush – Manufacturing in focus
Manufacturing Sector is now getting much needed impetus due to
Govt.’s steadfast commitment towards reforms
Data Source: Macquarie Research and (https://pib.gov.in/) . Misc includes Textiles and Food industry as well, FY: Financial Year, Tn: Trillion. PLI: Production Linked Incentive
Scheme
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
FY 20 FY 21 FY22 FY23
New Projects Announced under Manufacturing
(INR Tn)
Chemicals & Refining Machinery & Metal Products
Consumer Goods (Incl. Auto) Construction material
Misc
3.8
13.2
Initiatives taken by Govt. to support
Manufacturing
Make in India
Vocal for Local
initiative to
promote Indian
Manufacturing
PLI
Incentive schemes
for key sectors to
boost production
and exports
National
Logistics Policy
Aiming to lower
the logistics cost
to improve cost
efficiency &
profitability
25
Paradigm Shift –
Strong domestic vs Weak Global business cycle
13 12 11
24
42
63
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
FY22 FY23 6MFY24
Average PAT growth (YoY, %)
Global Facing Sectors Domestic Facing Sectors
India’s Macros and
growth remains much
stronger compared to
the world and the same
is evident in the
corporate profitability of
Domestic facing sectors
Source: DAM Capital. Data is as of Sep 30, 2023. NSE 200 sectoral adjusted Profit After Tax (PAT) is considered. Select sectors from NSE 200 considered. Global
facing sectors considered – Information Technology and Healthcare. Domestic facing sectors considered – Automobiles & Auto components, Banks, NBFCs, Capital
Goods, Construction & Materials, Consumer Durables. Past performance may or may not sustain in future
PARADIGM SHIFT –
Valuations and Sentiments
27
Paradigm Shift – Verifying Valuations
Our in-house Equity Valuation Index continue to remain in the neutral zone highlighting
that market valuations are not cheap
Data as on Dec 22,2023 is considered. Equity Valuation index is calculated by assigning equal weights to Price-to-Earnings (PE), Price-to-Book (PB), G-Sec*PE and Market Cap to GDP ratio and any other
factor which the AMC may add/delete from time to time.. G-Sec – Government Securities. GDP – Gross Domestic Product, Data as on November 30, 2023 has been considered. Equity Valuation Index (EVI) is
a proprietary model of ICICI Prudential AMC Ltd. (the AMC) used for assessing overall equity market valuations. The AMC may also use this model for other facilities/features offered by the AMC.
115.4
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Aggressively Invest in Equities
Neutral
Incremental Money to Debt
Book Partial Profits
Invest in Equities
28
Paradigm Shift – Verifying Valuations
Pre-election rally have historically witnessed lower starting point
But this time valuations are on the higher side
P/E, P/B and Market Returns are calculated for Nifty 50 Index. Data Source: MFIE, NSE & Nuvama Research Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Returns have
been calculated from Dec 01,2003 to April 30,2004, Dec 01,2008 to April 30,2009, Dec 01,2013 to April 30,2014 and Dec 01,2018 to April 30,2019. 5 Months prior indicate
beginning of December of the relevant previous year. Market cap of actively traded companies is considered.
Market Cap (INR Tn) 10.7 28.2 68.1 142.9 323.4
P/E 18.3 11.8 18.5 26.3 21.7
P/B 3.6 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.6
Indian market cap to
GDP
39 52 62 76 114
Returns till General
Elections
8.4 29.7 7.7 8.0 ??
Particulars 5 months prior
to 2004
5 months prior
to 2009
5 months prior
to 2014
5 months prior
to 2019
5 months prior
to 2024
29
Paradigm Shift – Verifying Valuations
Valuations of Large-cap stocks look relatively cheaper leaving more headroom for margin of safety
Source: NSE. ^Data as on Nov 30,2023. Data is on calendar year basis. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Red indicates high valuations, Amber indicates
neutral valuations and Green indicates attractive valuations.
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023^
80.3 12.4 7.2 19.6
76.8 14.1 9.1 23.2
73.8 15.2 11.0 26.2
72.9 15.3 11.8 27.1
68.1 17.3 14.6 31.9
72.0 16.3 11.7 28.0
74.9 15.6 9.5 25.1
74.2 15.5 10.2 25.7
68.7 16.8 14.5 31.3
69.2 16.1 14.7 30.8
64.0 18.0 18.1 36.1
Midcap
Large Cap Smallcap
As a % of Total Market Cap
Sum of Mid & Small cap
Period
30
Paradigm Shift – Sentiments Scan
Investors continued to flock towards Midcap & smallcap schemes due to past returns.
Overall sentiments remained positive due to strong FPI and DII flows
Data till November 30,2023 is considered. Data Source: AMFI and Kotak Institutional Research. FPI: Foreign Portfolio Investment, DII: Domestic Institutional Investors. For DII: Only
Mutual Fund Houses have been considered. CYTD: Calendar Year Till Date. Other Funds include categories like Flexicaps, Multicaps, ELSS, Value, Sectoral and Large & Midcap Funds.
Mn: Million. For 2023, Data is considered till Dec 22,2023
Category
Net Flows into Mutual Funds (INR Bn)
Growth in
count of
Folios
(CYTD)
2021 2022 2023 CYTD
Large Cap
Funds
29 137 -30 -26 2%
Midcap
Funds
106 205 189 214 23%
Smallcap
Funds
38 198 335 373 58%
Other Funds 794 1071 797 929 11%
-18000
-8000
2000
12000
22000
32000
42000
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
USD
Mn
Transition of DII Flows
FPI Flows DII Flows Mutual Fund Flows (subset of DII)
31
Our Key Recommendations-Equity ETFs/FOF/Index funds
Core ICICI Prudential Nifty 50 ETF / ICICI Prudential Nifty 50 Index Fund
ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex ETF / ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex Index Fund
ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF / ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF FOF
ICICI Prudential Nifty Bank ETF / ICICI Prudential Nifty Bank Index Fund
ICICI Prudential Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 ETF / ICICI Prudential Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 ETF FOF
ICICI Prudential Passive Strategy Fund (FOF)
Tactical Equity ICICI Prudential Nifty Financial Services ex Bank ETF
ICICI Prudential Nifty Private Bank ETF
ICICI Prudential Nifty IT ETF / ICICI Prudential Nifty IT Index Fund
ICICI Prudential Nifty India Consumption ETF
Our Outlook on Fixed Income
On monetary policy, we see a low chance of shift in policy stance as the impact of past rate hikes works its way
through the economy. The RBI’s intervention is needed only if growth-inflation dynamics diverge unfavorably.
We believe that monetary policy has done the heavy-lifting in managing the economy and the baton is now passed
on to the fiscal side where the deficit gap needs to be narrowed.
Global cues are expected to impact domestic macros bringing in a mixed bag - with optimism, fueled by a dovish US
Fed, and caution, as China stages recovery.
We expect liquidity conditions to remain tight as credit growth continues to expand.
Accruals may become attractive as corporates tap the bond market for capital. Active duration management is
also required as global cues impact domestic macros and long-term yields.
32
Target Maturity Index Statistics
33
Index Name Yield(%) MacD(yrs) Maturity(yrs) ModD(yrs)
Nifty PSU Bond Plus SDL SEP 2027
40:60 Index
7.62 3.15 3.59 3.00
Nifty SDL Sep 2027 Index 7.60 3.21 3.65 3.09
Nifty G-sec Dec 2030 Index 7.28 5.30 6.57 5.12
Nifty SDL Dec 2028 Index 7.58 3.99 4.67 3.84
Nifty SDL Sep 2026 Index 7.57 2.35 2.57 2.26
Data as on December 31, 2023. Source: NSE Indices https://www.niftyindices.com ,.
34
Our Key Recommendations Debt ETFs/Index funds
Margin and Liquidity Requirement ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Liquid Rate ETF
Medium and Long Duration ICICI Prudential Nifty 5 Yr benchmark G-Sec ETF
ICICI Prudential Nifty 10 Yr benchmark G-Sec ETF
Target Maturity ICICI Prudential Nifty SDL Sep 2026 Index Fund
ICICI Prudential Nifty PSU Bond Plus SDL Sep 2027 40:60 Index Fund
ICICI Prudential Nifty SDL Sep 2027 Index Fund
ICICI Prudential Nifty SDL Dec 2028 Index Fund
ICICI Prudential Nifty G-Sec Dec 2030 Index Fund
Our View On Gold
35
We believe that Gold in coming years would play an important role in one’s portfolio as it can maintain its glitter as a
viable investment, especially during periods of rising inflation and heightened geo-political tensions.
We thus recommend ICICI Prudential Gold ETF or ICICI Prudential Regular Gold Savings Fund (FOF)
Main factors supporting our view :
1. Real rate close to the peak in US
2. Central banks looking to diversify out of US treasuries
3. Relative valuation for gold more attractive
Source: Nuvama, Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
Our View On Gold-Analysis
36
Source: Nuvama, Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
Real rates closer to the peak in US
Gold has remained range bound because of higher real US treasury interest rates , but now with real rate peaking out and falling
the shine for gold have started to come back strongly
1.8
3.0
1.0
2.4
1.6
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
US 10 Yr TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) Yield Movement for last 20 years
(%)
Our View On Gold-Analysis
37
Central banks looking to diversify out of US treasuries
As the world is in turbulent times, the Central Banks around the world are inclined towards gold for hedging portfolio risk, which
in-turn may bode well for gold demand.
Central Bank demand for gold has gone from strength to strength
Source: Nuvama, Metal Focus, Refinitiv GFMS,
Invest in Equities
Invest in Gold Invest in Gold
0.46
0.18
0.63
0.26
0.42
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
Dec-90
Dec-91
Dec-92
Dec-93
Dec-94
Dec-95
Dec-96
Dec-97
Dec-98
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Sensex to Gold Ratio
Our View On Gold-Analysis
38
Relative valuation for gold more attractive
Invest in Equities
Invest in Equities
Source: Nuvama, Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
Gold in dollar terms has remained flat for the last three years. To add further, gold prices peaked 12 years back @ 1920 in 2011
and post that has not witnessed any significant rally
39
RISKOMETER
ICICI Prudential Gold ETF (An open ended exchange traded fund replicating domestic
prices of gold) is suitable for investors who are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand that
their principal will be at
High risk
• Long term wealth creation solution
•A Gold Exchange Traded Fund that seeks to provide investment returns that closely
track domestic prices of Gold, subject to tracking error.
*Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for
them.
ICICI Prudential Nifty 50 ETF (An open ended exchange traded fund tracking Nifty 50
Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand that
their principal will be at
Very High risk
• Long term wealth creation solution
•An Exchange Traded Fund that seeks to provide returns that closely correspond to the
returns provided by Nifty 50 Index, subject to tracking error.
*Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for
them.
40
RISKOMETER
ICICI Prudential Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 ETF (An open ended exchange
traded fund tracking Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 Index) is suitable for investors
who are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand that
their principal will be at Very
High risk
• Long term wealth creation solution
• An Exchange Traded Fund that aims to provide returns that closely
correspond to the returns provided by Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 Index,
subject to tracking error.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF (An Open-ended Exchange Traded Fund replicating/
tracking S&P BSE 500 Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand that
their principal will be at Very
High risk
• Long term wealth creation
• An Exchange Traded Fund that aims to provide returns that closely correspond to
the returns provided by S&P BSE 500 Index, subject to tracking error.
*Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
41
RISKOMETER
ICICI Prudential Nifty Bank ETF (An open-ended Exchange Traded Fund tracking Nifty Bank
Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Very High
risk
• Long term wealth creation
• An exchange traded fund that aims to provide returns that closely correspond to the
returns provided by Nifty Bank Index, subject to tracking error.
*Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Nifty Private Bank ETF (An open-ended Exchange Traded Fund replicating /
tracking NIFTY Private Bank Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER
• Long term wealth creation
• An exchange traded fund that aims to provide returns that closely correspond to the
returns provided by NIFTY Private Bank Index, subject to tracking error.
Investors understand that
their principal will be at Very
High risk
*Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
42
RISKOMETER
ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex ETF (An open ended Exchange Traded Fund tracking S&P BSE
Sensex Index.) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Very High risk
• Long term wealth creation solution
• An Exchange Traded Fund that aims to provide returns that closely correspond to the
returns of the securities represented by S&P BSE SENSEX Index subject to tracking error.
*Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Nifty India Consumption ETF (An open-ended Index Exchange Traded Fund
tracking Nifty India Consumption Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand that
their principal will be at Very
High risk
• Long term wealth creation
• An Exchange Traded Fund that aims to provide returns that closely correspond to the
returns provided by Nifty India Consumption Index, subject to tracking error.
*Investorsshouldconsult theirfinancialadvisersif in doubtaboutwhetherthe productis suitable forthem.
43
RISKOMETER
ICICI Prudential Passive Strategy Fund (FOF) (An open ended fund of funds scheme investing
predominantly in Units of Domestic Equity Exchange Traded Funds) is suitable for investors who
are seeking*:
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand that
their principal will be at Very
High risk
• Long term wealth creation
• An open ended fund of funds scheme investing predominantly in units of domestic Equity
Exchange traded funds.
*Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Nifty IT ETF (An open-ended Index Exchange Traded Fund tracking Nifty IT
Index.) is suitable for investors who are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand that their
principal will be at Very High risk
• Long term wealth creation
•An Exchange Traded Fund that aims to provide returns that closely correspond to the
returns provided by Nifty IT Index, subject to tracking error.
*Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
44
RISKOMETER
ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF FOF(An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in
ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF) is suitable for investors who are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand that
their principal will be at
Very High risk
• Long term wealth creation
• An Open-ended Fund of Funds scheme with the primary objective to generate returns by
investing in units of ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF.
*Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for
them.
ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex Index Fund (An open ended Index scheme
replicating S&P BSE Sensex Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand that
their principal will be at
Very High risk
• Long term wealth creation solution
• An index fund that seeks to track returns by investing in a basket of S&P BSE SENSEX Index
stocks and aims to achieve returns of the stated index, subject to tracking error.
*Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for
them.
45
RISKOMETER
ICICI Prudential Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 ETF FOF (An open ended fund of funds scheme
investing in ICICI Prudential Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 ETF) is suitable for investors who
are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand that
their principal will be at
Very High risk
• Long term wealth creation
• An Open-ended Fund of Funds scheme with the primary objective to generate returns by
investing in units of ICICI Prudential Nifty Low Vol 30 ETF.
*Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for
them.
ICICI Prudential Nifty Bank Index Fund (An open ended scheme replicating Nifty Bank
Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand that
their principal will be at
Very High risk
• Long term wealth creation solutions
• An index fund that seeks to track returns by investing in a basket of Nifty Bank Index
stocks and aims to achieve returns of the stated index, subject to tracking error.
*Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for
them.
46
RISKOMETER
ICICI Prudential Nifty IT Index Fund (An open ended Index scheme replicating Nifty IT
Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand that
their principal will be at
Very High risk
• Long term wealth creation solution
• An index fund that seeks to track returns by investing in a basket of Nifty IT Index stocks
and aims to achieve returns of the stated index, subject to tracking error.
*Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for
them.
ICICI Prudential Regular Gold Savings Fund(FOF)(An open ended fund of funds scheme
investing in ICICI Prudential Nifty Gold ETF) is suitable for investors who are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand that
their principal will be at
High risk
• Long term wealth creation solution
• A Fund of Funds scheme with the primary objective to generate returns by investing in
units of ICICI Prudential Gold ETF.
*Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for
them.
ICICI Prudential Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank ETF (An open-ended Exchange Traded Fund
tracking Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand that their
Principal will be at Very High risk
• Long term wealth creation
• An Exchange Traded Fund that aims to provide returns that correspond to the returns
provided by Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank Index, subject to tracking error.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
47
RISKOMETER
ICICI Prudential Nifty 50 Index Fund (An open ended Index scheme replicating Nifty 50
Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand that
their principal will be at
Very High risk
• Long term wealth creation solution
• An index fund that seeks to track returns by investing in a basket of Nifty 50 Index stocks
and aims to achieve returns of the stated index, subject to tracking error.
*Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for
them.
48
RISKOMETER
ICICI Prudential Nifty 5 yr Benchmark G-SEC ETF (An open-ended
Exchange Traded Fund tracking Nifty 5 yr Benchmark G-Sec Index. A
relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk.) is
suitable for investors who are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand
that their principal
will be at Moderate
risk
• Long term wealth creation
•An Exchange Traded Fund that aims to provide returns that
correspond to the returns provided by Nifty 5 yr Benchmark G-sec
Index, subject to tracking error.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the
product is suitable for them.
Potential risk class matrix based on interest
rate risk and credit risk, is as below:
Credit Risk Relatively
Low
(Class A)
Modera
te
(Class
B)
Relativel
y High
(Class C)
Interest Rate Risk
Relatively Low
(Class I)
Moderate (Class
II)
Relatively High
(Class III)
A-III
ICICI Prudential Nifty SDL Sep 2026 Index Fund( An open-ended
Target Maturity Index Fund tracking Nifty SDL Sep 2026 Index. A
Moderate interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk) is suitable for
investors who are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand
that their
Principal will be at Low
to Moderate risk
• Income over the target maturity period
• An open-ended Target Maturity Index Fund tracking Nifty SDL Sep
2026 Index, subject to tracking error
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
Potential risk class matrix based on interest rate
risk and credit risk, is as below:
Credit Risk Relatively
Low (Class
A)
Moderat
e (Class
B)
Relativel
y High
(Class C)
Interest Rate Risk
Relatively Low
(Class I)
Moderate (Class II) A-II
Relatively High
(Class III)
49
RISKOMETER
ICICI Prudential Nifty 10 yr Benchmark G-Sec ETF (An open-ended
Exchange Traded Fund tracking NIFTY 10 yr Benchmark G-Sec Index.
A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk) is
suitable for investors who are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand
that their
Principal will be at
Moderate risk
• Long term wealth creation
• An Exchange Traded Fund that aims to provide returns that
correspond to the returns provided by NIFTY 10 yr Benchmark G-Sec
Index, subject to tracking error.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
Potential risk class matrix based on interest rate
risk and credit risk, is as below:
Credit Risk Relatively
Low (Class
A)
Moderat
e (Class
B)
Relativel
y High
(Class C)
Interest Rate Risk
Relatively Low
(Class I)
Moderate (Class II)
Relatively High
(Class III)
A-III
ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Liquid Rate ETF (An open-ended Exchange
Traded Fund tracking S&P BSE Liquid Rate Index. A relatively low
interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk.) is suitable for investors
who are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand
that their principal will
be at Low risk
• Short term savings solution
• A liquid exchange traded fund that aims to provide reasonable
returns commensurate with low risk and providing a high level of
liquidity.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the
product is suitable for them.
Potential risk class matrix based on interest rate
risk and credit risk, is as below:
Credit Risk Relatively
Low (Class
A)
Moder
ate
(Class
B)
Relatively
High
(Class C)
Interest Rate Risk
Relatively Low
(Class I)
A-I
Moderate (Class II)
Relatively High
(Class III)
50
RISKOMETER
ICICI Prudential Nifty PSU Bond Plus SDL Sep 2027 40:60 Index
Fund(An open-ended target maturity Index Fund investing in the
constituents of Nifty PSU Bond Plus SDL Sep 2027 40:60 Index. A
relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk.) is
suitable for investors who are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand
that their
Principal will be at
Moderate risk
• Income over long run
• An open-ended Target Maturity Index Fund tracking Nifty PSU
Bond Plus SDL Sep 2027 40:60 Index, subject to tracking error.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
Potential risk class matrix based on interest rate
risk and credit risk, is as below:
Credit Risk Relatively
Low (Class
A)
Moderat
e (Class
B)
Relativel
y High
(Class C)
Interest Rate Risk
Relatively Low
(Class I)
Moderate (Class II)
Relatively High
(Class III)
A-III
ICICI Prudential Nifty SDL Sep 2027 Index Fund(An open-ended
Target Maturity Index Fund tracking Nifty SDL Sep 2027 Index. A
relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk.) is
suitable for investors who are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand
that their
Principal will be at
Moderate risk
• Income over a long period
• An open-ended Target Maturity Index Fund tracking Nifty SDL Sep
2027 Index, subject to tracking error.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
Potential risk class matrix based on interest rate
risk and credit risk, is as below:
Credit Risk Relatively
Low (Class
A)
Moderat
e (Class
B)
Relativel
y High
(Class C)
Interest Rate Risk
Relatively Low
(Class I)
Moderate (Class II)
Relatively High
(Class III)
A-III
51
RISKOMETER
ICICI Prudential Nifty SDL Dec 2028 Index Fund (An open-ended
Target Maturity Index Fund tracking Nifty SDL Dec 2028 Index. A
relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk.) is
suitable for investors who are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand
that their
Principal will be at
Moderate risk
• Income over a long period
• An open-ended Target Maturity Index Fund tracking Nifty SDL Dec
2028 Index, subject to tracking error.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
Potential risk class matrix based on interest rate
risk and credit risk, is as below:
Credit Risk Relatively
Low (Class
A)
Moderat
e (Class
B)
Relativel
y High
(Class C)
Interest Rate Risk
Relatively Low
(Class I)
Moderate (Class II)
Relatively High
(Class III)
A-III
ICICI Prudential Nifty G-Sec Dec 2030 Index Fund (An open-ended
target maturity Index Fund investing in the constituents of Nifty G-Sec
Dec 2030 Index. A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low
credit risk.)is suitable for investors who are seeking:*
SCHEME RISKOMETER
Investors understand
that their
Principal will be at
Moderate risk
• Income over a long period
• An open-ended Target Maturity Index Fund tracking Nifty G-Sec
Dec 2030 Index, subject to tracking error.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
Potential risk class matrix based on interest rate
risk and credit risk, is as below:
Credit Risk Relatively
Low (Class
A)
Moderat
e (Class
B)
Relativel
y High
(Class C)
Interest Rate Risk
Relatively Low
(Class I)
Moderate (Class II)
Relatively High
(Class III)
A-III
52
RISKOMETER
#Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above risk-o-meters are
as on December 31, 2023. Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
#Investors may please note that they will be bearing the recurring expenses of the relevant fund of funds scheme in addition to the
expenses of the underlying schemes in which the fund of funds scheme makes investment.
Any application by investors, other than Market Makers, must be for an amount exceeding INR 25 crores. However, the aforementioned
threshold of INR 25 crores shall not apply to investors falling under the following categories (until such time as may be specified by SEBI/AMFI):
a. Schemes managed by Employee Provident Fund Organization, India;
b. Recognized Provident Funds, approved Gratuity funds and approved superannuation funds under Income Tax Act, 1961.
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
ICICI ETF is part of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund and is used for exchange traded funds managed by ICICI Prudential Asset
Management Company Limited.
53
Scrip Codes
Scheme Name Scrip Code on NSE Scrip Code on BSE
ICICI Prudential Nifty 50 ETF
NIFTYIETF 537007
ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex ETF SENSEXIETF 555555
ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF BSE500IETF 541313
ICICI Prudential Nifty Bank ETF BANKIETF 542730
ICICI Prudential Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 ETF LOWVOLIETF 540612
ICICI Prudential Nifty Financial Services ex Bank ETF
FINIETF 543677
ICICI Prudential Nifty Private Bank ETF PVTBANIETF 542758
ICICI Prudential Nifty IT ETF ITIETF 543221
ICICI Prudential Nifty India Consumption ETF CONSUMIETF 543383
ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Liquid Rate ETF LIQUIDIETF 541946
ICICI Prudential Nifty 5 Yr benchmark G-Sec ETF GSEC5IETF 543480
ICICI Prudential Nifty 10 Yr benchmark G-Sec ETF
GSEC10IETF 543700
ICICI Prudential Gold ETF GOLDIETF 533244
54
DISCLAIMERS
Disclaimer: All figures and other data given in this document are dated as of December 31, 2023 unless stated otherwise. The same may or may not be relevant at a future
date. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form,
without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (the AMC). Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and
financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund.
Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, the AMC has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house.
Some of the material(s) used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made
available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not
warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain
words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results
may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to,
exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the
monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI
Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable
for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from
the use of this material in any manner. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise. The recipient alone shall be fully
responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material.
Disclaimer of NSE Indices Limited: The Products offered by “ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund/ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited” or its affiliates is not sponsored,
endorsed, sold or promoted by NSE Indices Limited (NSE Indices) and its affiliates. NSE Indices and its affiliates do not make any representation or warranty, express or implied
(including warranties of merchantability or fitness for particular purpose or use) to the owners of these Products or any member of the public regarding the advisability of investing in
securities generally or in the Products linked to their underlying indices to track general stock market performance in India. Please read the full Disclaimers in relation to the
underlying indices in the respective Scheme Information Document.
55
DISCLAIMERS
Disclaimer by the National Stock Exchange of India Limited : It is to be distinctly understood that the permission given by National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) should not
in any way be deemed or construed that the Scheme Information Document has been cleared or approved by NSE nor does it certify the correctness or completeness of any of the
contents of the Scheme Information Document. The investors are advised to refer to the Scheme Information Document for the full text of the ‘Disclaimer Clause of NSE’.
Disclaimer by the BSE Limited: It is to be distinctly understood that the permission given by BSE Limited should not in any way be deemed or construed that the SID has been cleared
or approved by BSE Limited nor does it certify the correctness or completeness of any of the contents of the SID. The investors are advised to refer to the SID for the full text of the
Disclaimer Clause of the BSE Limited.
Disclaimer by BSE Limited for SENSEX Prudential ICICI Exchange Traded Fund:
The "S&P BSE SENSEX" is a product of AIPL, a joint venture among affiliates of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (“SPDJI”) and BSE Limited (“BSE”), and has been licensed for use by ICICI
Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Standard & Poor’s® and S&P® are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”); BSE® and SENSEX®
are registered trademarks of BSE Limited; Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (“Dow Jones”);and these trademarks have been licensed for use
by AIPL and sublicensed for certain purposes by ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. SENSEX Prudential ICICI Exchange Traded Fund is not sponsored, endorsed,
sold or promoted by SPDJI, BSE, Dow Jones, S&P or their respective affiliates and none of such parties make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product(s)
nor do they have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of the SENSEX.” “The “S&P BSE SENSEX" (the “Index”) is published by Asia Index Private Limited (“AIPL”), which
is a joint venture among affiliates of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (“SPDJI”) and BSE Limited (“BSE”), and has been licensed for use by ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company
Limited (“Licensee”). Standard & Poor’s® and S&P® are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”) and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow
Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (“Dow Jones”). BSE® and SENSEX® are registered trademarks of BSE. The trademarks have been licensed to AIPL and have been sublicensed for use for
certain purposes by Licensee. Licensee’s SENSEX Prudential ICICI Exchange Traded Fund” (the “Product”) is/are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by AIPL, SPDJI, Dow Jones,
S&P, any of their respective affiliates (collectively, “S&P Dow Jones Indices”) or BSE. None of AIPL, S&P Dow Jones Indices or BSE makes any representation or warranty, express or
implied, to the owners of the Product or any member of the public regarding the advisability of investing in securities generally or in the Product particularly or the ability of the Index to
track general market performance. AIPL’s, S&P Dow Jones Indices’ and BSE’s only relationship to Licensee with respect to the Index is the licensing of the Index and certain trademarks,
service marks and/or trade names of AIPL, S&P Dow Jones Indices, BSE and/or their licensors. The S&P BSE SENSEX is determined, composed and calculated by AIPL or its agent
without regard to Licensee or the Product. None of AIPL, S&P Dow Jones Indices or BSE are responsible for and have not participated in the determination of the prices, and amount of
the Product or the timing of the issuance or sale of the Product or in the determination or calculation of the equation by which the Product is to be converted into cash, surrendered or
redeemed, as the case may be. AIPL, S&P Dow Jones Indices and BSE have no obligation or liability in connection with the administration, marketing or trading of the Product. There is
no assurance that investment products based on the Index will accurately track index performance or provide positive investment returns. AIPL and S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC are not
investment advisors. Inclusion of a security within an index is not a recommendation by AIPL, S&P Dow Jones Indices or BSE to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor is it considered to be
investment advice.
56
DISCLAIMERS
Standard & Poor's® and S&P® are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC (“S&P”) and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow
Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (“Dow Jones”). BSE® and SENSEX® are registered trademarks of BSE. The trademarks have been licensed to AIPL and have been
sublicensed for use for certain purposes by Licensee. Licensee's ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex ETF, ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex Index Fund, ICICI Prudential
S&P BSE Midcap Select ETF, BHARAT 22 ETF, ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF and ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Liquid Rate ETF” (the “Product”) is/are not sponsored,
endorsed, sold or promoted by AIPL, SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&P, any of their respective affiliates (collectively, “S&P Dow Jones Indices”) or BSE. None of AIPL, S&P Dow
Jones Indices or BSE makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the owners of the Product or any member of the public regarding the advisability of
investing in securities generally or in the Product particularly or the ability of the Index to track general market performance. AIPL's, S&P Dow Jones Indices' and BSE's
only relationship to Licensee with respect to the Index is the licensing of the Index and certain trademarks, service marks and/or trade names of AIPL, S&P Dow Jones
Indices, BSE and/or their licensors. The "S&P BSE Sensex, S&P BSE Midcap Select TRI, S&P BSE Bharat 22 TRI, S&P BSE 500 TRI and S&P BSE Liquid Rate Index" is
determined, composed and calculated by AIPL or its agent without regard to Licensee or the Product. None of AIPL, S&P Dow Jones Indices or BSE are responsible for
and have not participated in the determination of the prices, and amount of the Product or the timing of the issuance or sale of the Product or in the determination or
calculation of the equation by which the Product is to be converted into cash, surrendered or redeemed, as the case may be. AIPL, S&P Dow Jones Indices and BSE
have no obligation or liability in connection with the administration, marketing or trading of the Product. There is no assurance that investment products based on the
Index will accurately track index performance or provide positive investment returns. AIPL and S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC are not investment advisors. Inclusion of a
security within an index is not a recommendation by AIPL , S&P Dow Jones Indices or BSE to buy, sell, or hold suchsecurity, nor is it considered to be investment
advice.
Disclaimer by AIPL for ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex ETF, ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex Index Fund, ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF and ICICI Prudential
S&P BSE Liquid Rate ETF :
“The "S&P BSE Sensex, S&P BSE 500 TRI and S&P BSE Liquid Rate Index" is a product of AIPL, a joint venture among affiliates of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (“SPDJI”)
and BSE Limited (“BSE”), and has been licensed for use by ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Standard & Poor's® and S&P® are registered
trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC (“S&P”); BSE® and SENSEX® are registered trademarks of BSE Limited; Dow Jones® is a registered trademark
of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (“Dow Jones”); and these trademarks have been licensed for use by AIPL and sublicensed for certain purposes by ICICI
Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex ETF, ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex Index Fund, ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Midcap
Select ETF, BHARAT 22 ETF, ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF and ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Liquid Rate ETF is not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by SPDJI,
BSE, Dow Jones, S&P or their respective affiliates and none of such parties make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product(s) nor do
they have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of the SENSEX.” “The "S&P BSE Sensex, S&P BSE Midcap Select TRI, S&P BSE Bharat 22 TRI, S&P BSE
500 TRI and S&P BSE Liquid Rate Index" (the “Index”) is published by Asia Index Private Limited (“AIPL”), which is a joint venture among affiliates of S&P Dow Jones
Indices LLC (“SPDJI”) and BSE Limited (“BSE”), and has been licensed for use by ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (“Licensee”).

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Annual Outlook: 2024 | A Paradigm Shift

  • 1. A Paradigm Shift ANNUAL OUTLOOK : 2024
  • 2. 2 Recap 2023 – India shines right and bright Global headwinds dominated markets in 2023. S&P BSE Sensex however, kept touching new highs and ended the year on a positive note (+17%) Source: BSE, NSDL, www.federalreserve.gov, www.indiabudget.gov.in, www.india.gov.in, www.economictimes.indiatimes.com . Data as of Dec 22, 2023. US Fed – United States Federal Reserve, RBI – Reserve Bank of India, FII – Foreign Institutional Investors, bbl – barrel, COVID – Coronavirus Disease. Past performance may or may not sustain in future 55000 58000 61000 64000 67000 70000 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 S&P BSE Sensex Pro-growth Union Budget cheers markets Collapse of a US based bank Strong domestic earnings + FII buying Strong Q1 GDP data in US allays recession fears India Q1FY24 GDP at 7.8% BoJ tweaks its bond yield control policy Japan headline inflation touches 3.3% Hamas – Israel conflict Incumbent party wins state elections in 3 states A US based Short seller's report on Indian conglomerate Dovish statement by US Fed
  • 3. 3 Global Markets Performance Wrap 2023: Japan wakes from the slumber • After years of muted performance, Japan delivered good returns due to the dynamic duo of Governance reforms + Rising inflation • China & Hong Kong remained laggards due to slow economic recovery Germany - DAX Index; China - SSE Composite Index; Japan - Nikkei; Eurozone - Euronext 100; Hong Kong - HangSeng; US - Dow Jones; U.K. - FTSE; Brazil - Ibovespa Sao Paulo Index; Taiwan – Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation; India – S&P BSE Sensex; Data Source: Nuvama Research. Returns are absolute returns for the index calculated between Dec 31, 2022 – Dec 22, 2023. Map source: Map not to scale. This map has been used for design and representational purpose only, it does not depict the geographical boundaries of the country. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. United States: 13% Brazil: 37% Germany: 23% Europe: 16% UK: 9% India: 16% Hong Kong: -18% China: -9% Japan: 17% Taiwan: 23%
  • 4. 4 Indian Markets: Who is the show stopper? Data as on Dec 22,2023. Data Source: BSE. Returns have been calculated on absolute basis. CYTD: Calendar Year Till Date. For Power Sector- S&P BSE Power TRI , Bankex Sector- S&P BSE Bankex TRI , FMCG Sector- S&P BSE FMCG TRI , Energy Sector- S&P BSE Energy TRI , For CG Sector - S&P BSE CG Index , Auto Sector- S&P BSE AUTO Index , Oil & Gas Sector- S&P BSE Oil & Gas TRI Index , Finance Sector- S&P BSE Financial Services TRI , Metal Sector S&P BSE METAL TRI , Infra Sector -S&P BSE India Infrastructure Index , Telecom Sector- S&P BSE Telecom TRI , HC Sector- S&P BSE HC TRI , Realty Sector- S&P BSE Realty TRI , CD Sector - S&P BSE CD TRI , IT Sector- S&P BSE IT TRI is considered. For Large Cap: S&P BSE Sensex, Mid Cap: S&P BSE Midcap Index and Small Cap: S&P BSE Smallcap Index is considered. CG: Capital Goods, HC: Health Care, CD: Consumer Durables, IT: Information Technology Market Cap Performance CYTD-23 (%) 17% 76% 64% 54% 42% 34% 34% 30% 29% 26% 25% 24% 17% 16% 15% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Realty CG Infra Auto HC Power Metal IT FMCG Telecom CD Finance Energy Oil & Gas Bankex 2023 - Performance (Absolute Returns %) Large Cap 42% Mid Cap 45% Small Cap
  • 5. 5 Asset class wise performance – Go Global! CY 2023 Absolute Returns Gold (USD/oz) Silver (USD/oz) Brent Crude (USD Barrel) US Dollar Index (DXY) MSCI World Index MSCI India Index MSCI Emerging Market Index India 10Y G-Sec* US 10Y Treasury* 12% 2% -7.6% -1.6% 19% 17% 4% 7.3% 3.1% Asset Class / Index Data Source: Nuvama Research. Data as on Dec 22,2023 is considered. Oz: Ounce, G-sec: Government Securities, Y: year, USD: US Dollar, *BLOOMBERG INDIAN GOVT BOND 10 Year Total Return (USD) used for India 10 Year G-Sec returns & Bloomberg US GOVT. 10 Year Term Index Total Return used for US 10Y Treasury Returns
  • 6. Witness the Paradigm Shift, this New Year!
  • 7. 7 PROLOGUE “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen” a very apt quote by Vladimir Ilyich Lenin that perfectly fits recent market dynamics. Seems like yesterday when COVID crisis struck, globally affecting growth & inflation and Central Banks tried supporting their economies by announcing stimulus packages. Not to forget the two wars (Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas) that are adding to global supply chain woes In our Annual Outlook for 2023 titled “Beginning of a new era”, we had highlighted how a new era of high inflation, high interest rates, geo-political tensions and volatility has begun and that this will become the new norm. At that time there was uncertainty as to how India will navigate global headwinds. One year down the line, Indian macros stay resilient amidst challenging global backdrop marking a ‘Paradigm Shift’ in domestic and global trends As we usher into the new year, we can sense an air of fragility in global macros, on the contrary India is breaking-out of the Frail economy tag and is emerging as the growth engine for the world with resilient macros, favorable demographics, sustainable demand and structural reforms. This marks a major ‘Paradigm Shift’ wherein global economies are turning fragile and Indian economy seems stronger than ever.
  • 8. 8 Paradigm Shift – An Overview of Global & Domestic Macros Global Domestic Fragile Global Macros Soaring Debt Levels Contractionary Policy Measures Heightened Geo-Political tensions Resilient Macros Healthy balance sheets Strong domestic demand Structural Reforms Global
  • 10. 10 Paradigm Shift – Fragile Global Macros Central Banks of major Advanced Economies are opting for contractionary measures – hiking policy rates & tapering down balance sheets, in their fight against inflation Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org ,Morgan Stanley. USD – US Dollar, Bn, Billion, bps – basis points, US – United States, EA – Euro Area, US Fed – US Federal Reserve, BoE – Bank of England, ECB – European Central Bank. Balance Sheet data as of Sep 2023, rate hike data as of Dec 15, 2023 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 Jan-20 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Policy Rates (%) US Fed Target Rate (Upper Band, %) UK Policy Rate (%) Euro Area Rate (%) 3760 7908 5711 8560 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Jan-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Jul-09 May-10 Mar-11 Jan-12 Nov-12 Sep-13 Jul-14 May-15 Mar-16 Jan-17 Nov-17 Sep-18 Jul-19 May-20 Mar-21 Jan-22 Nov-22 Sep-23 Balance Sheet (USD Bn) Balance Sheet (USD Bn) US Balance Sheet (USD Bn) EA Long way to go to reach pre-pandemic levels
  • 11. 11 Paradigm Shift – Fragile Global Macros High policy rates are making it difficult to service the bloated balance sheets of Central Banks Source: Nuvama, Morgan Stanley. USD – US Dollar, Bn – Billion, WWII – World War 2, GDP – Gross Domestic Product. Data as of Sep 2023 for US Govt. debt to GDP & July 31, 2023 for Interest payments 544 981 200 400 600 800 1000 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 US Federal government current expenditures: Interest payments (USD Bn) 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Sep-1923 Sep-1933 Sep-1943 Sep-1953 Sep-1963 Sep-1973 Sep-1983 Sep-1993 Sep-2003 Sep-2013 Sep-2023 US government debt to GDP (%) Near WWII levels!
  • 12. 12 Paradigm Shift – Fragile Global Macros A series of geo-political crises is bringing significant uncertainty and fragility to macros US-CHINA WAR GULF TENSIONS Long standing issues over multiple topics – Taiwan, tech decoupling & trade tensions The Russia-Ukraine + Hamas-Israel war seems far from over, disturbing global supply chains The on-going wars have led to country blocs on both sides disturbing national relations
  • 13. PARADIGM SHIFT – Strong Domestic Picture
  • 14. 14 Paradigm Shift – Strong Domestic Picture India’s Rocket may take off being fueled by four growth engines Table Turning Macros Key Players Holding their ground • Government • Banks • Corporates • Households Reform Rush • Capex gaining priority • Manufacturing in focus Demand: Untapped Potential • Favorable Demographics • Wider scope of penetration
  • 15. 15 Table Turning Macros India has shed its ‘Fragile Five’ tag and is now going from strength-to-strength with its robust macros Data is shown for Financial Year unless otherwise mentioned. Data Source: Equirus Research and Nuvama Research. Covid refers to Coronavirus Disease 2019, CPI: Consumer Price Index, GDP: Gross Domestic Product, FDI: Foreign Direct Investment, Govt.: Government, Capex: Capital Expenditure, Bn: Billion, Cr: Crore. ^Data is of calendar year. #Data as on June 30,2023 @Data as on Nov 30,2023 *Data for FY 22-23. ! Data till Sep 30,2023 Taper Tantrum (2013-14) Global Financial Crisis (2008-09) Covid-19 (2020-21) Current (FYTD) CPI Inflation (%) 10.4 8.4 7.2 5.5@ GDP Growth (%) 3.1 6.4 -5.8 7.2* India’s share in World Exports (%)^ 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.8 Net FDI Flows ($, Bn) 22.4 21.6 43.9 4.9! Govt. Capex Spends (INR Cr) 90,158 1,87,675 3,46,919 9,18,024& GDP Per Capita ($, Current Prices) 1,014 1,560 1,913 2,392 Forex Reserves ($, Bn) 278.0 288.3 547.3 594.3 Govt. Debt to GDP (%) 74 67 89 83# Particulars
  • 16. 16 Key Players holding their ground – Govt. India’s declining Fiscal deficit trends, aided by strong tax collections, continue to cement pillars of Govt. balance sheet 9.2% 5.9% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 E Central Govt. Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) 11.2% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 Tax to GDP (%) Tax Collections (INR Bn) Tax Collections to GDP Direct Tax Indirect Tax Total Tax to GDP Data is as on March 31,2023. Data Source: Avendus Spark and Ministry of Statistical and Programme Implementation (https://www.mospi.gov.in) GDP: Gross Domestic Product, Govt.: Government, Bn: Billion. E: Estimates. Tax collections considered is of Central Govt. only 2023
  • 17. 17 Key Players holding their ground – Banks Well capitalized banks, falling NPAs and rising credit off-take is one of the key catalyst for India’s growth Data Source: Nuvama Research & Avendus Spark. Tn: Trillion, Bn: Billion, Agg.: Aggregate, NPA: Non Performing Assets, FY: Financial Year, FYTD: Financial Year Till Date. Data is as on Sep 30,2023 is considered for FYTD data. For Bank’s Balance Sheet Health: Data is as on March 31,2023. ^Data sourced from RBI as on Dec 22,2023 Growth Indicators of the Banking Sector 6.0 0.9 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 Net NPAs (%) Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) Banks’ Balance Sheet Health Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) Net NPAs Particulars FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FYTD Agg. Credit (INR Tn) 109.5 118.9 136.8 154.4 Agg. Deposits (INR Tn) 151.1 164.7 180.4 195.1 Credit Growth (%) 5.6 8.6 15.0 16.4^ Deposit Growth (%) 11.4 8.9 9.6 12.7^ Net Interest Margin (%) 3.3 3.3 3.7 --
  • 18. 18 Key Players holding their ground – Corporates Corporate Balance sheets have turned out to be less leveraged and more profitable boosting the corporate earnings cycle 62% 52% 55% 50% 52% 54% 56% 58% 60% 62% 64% F2013 F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021 F2022 F2023E F2024E F2025E Corporate Debt (% of GDP) 3.7% 5.2% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 Corporate Profit to GDP (%) Corporate Debt reduced over the years reflect lower reliance on external finances Steady GDP momentum creates conducive environment for businesses Data is as on March 31,2023. Data Source: Morgan Stanley and Avendus Spark. F: Financial Year. FY: Financial Year. E: Estimates. GDP: Gross Domestic Product. Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
  • 19. 19 Key Players holding their ground – Household Expanding wallets of the households with less leveraged balance sheet bodes well for uptick in household consumption Data for Consumption Expenditure is Financial Year data. Data for Household Debt is calendar year data. Data Source: Equirus Research and Morgan Stanley. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Private Final Consumption Expenditure (INR, Per Capita) Estimate China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 GDP per capita (PPP, Current International Dollar, 2021) Household Debt to GDP
  • 20. 20 Demand – Untapped Potential India has a wider scope of penetration in goods consumption and increased urbanization trends can further fuel the discretionary spending Data Source: Avendus Spark and Macquarie Research. E: Estimates. Data for white goods consumption is for Calendar Year 2021. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. *Source: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/urban-rural-populations.html Auto Outbound Trips Air Conditioners Refrigerators Smartphone Users Internet Users 4% 6% 8% 18% 37% 58% 15% 9% 60% 94% 54% 60% 81% 42% 90% 100% 83% 95% Products India China USA India has larger scope to penetrate in white goods consumption with Rising income levels 80* 61 56 35 USA China World Average India
  • 21. 21 Demand – Untapped Potential Domestic demand is likely to rise with increasing working age population and changing consumption patterns Data Source: Morgan Stanley and Macquarie Research. Data is shown for calendar year, E: Estimates 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 Working Age Population Ratio India World ex India Estimates 87% 2010 2000 2020 2030E 67% 33% Discretionary Spends Essential Spends 13% 79% 76% 21% 24% Average Household Consumption Spend
  • 22. 22 Reform Rush Indian economy is likely to benefit from the zeal of Govt.’s reform rush ^Data is sourced from (https://thedailyguardian.com/merits-of-the-insolvency-and-bankruptcy-code-2016/). #Data of CY 22 Source: (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unified_Payments_Interface#Market_share). *Source: (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/infrastructure/report-card-on-2nd-anniversary-pm-gati-shakti-gives-gati-to-11-58-lakh-cr-infrastructure-projects/articleshow/104381021.cms. &: Data Source: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1882145#:~:text=These%20include%20introduction%20of%20Goods,Manufacturing %20Programme%20(PMP)%2C%20to UPI: Unified Payments Interface, PM: Pradhan Mantri, Govt.: Government, Tn: Trillion, GST: Goods & Service Tax. To boost domestic manufacturing. Outlay of 1.97 Lakh Cr announced for 14 key sectors& PRODUCTION LINKED INCENTIVE (2020) INSOLVENCY & BANKRUPTCY CODE (2016) Aiming for insolvency resolution in time bound manner (191% realization to financial creditors^) GST & CORPORATE TAX CUTS (2017 and 2019) One tax system removing cascading and corporate rate cuts to improve profitability REAL ESTATE REGULATION AUTHORITY (2016) Regulating Real Estate Sector & protecting home buyers PM GATI SHAKTI (2021) Multi-Modal Infrastructure Connectivity (Evaluated more than 300 projects worth Rs 11.58 Lakh Crore*) UPI (2016) Facilitating Digital Transactions (Represents 62% of digital transactions in FY22-23# Approx Value: 126 Tn#)
  • 23. 23 Reform Rush – Capex gaining priority Govt.’s high quality expenditure towards Capex forms a strong bedrock for future sustainable growth Data is as on Oct 31,2023. Data Source: JM Financial and Avendus Spark Capital. FY: Financial Year. 7M: Seven Months, Govt.: Government. Capex: Capital Expenditure , Govt.: Government, Revex: Revenue Expenditure, Bn: Billion Segments Central Govt. Spends (INR Bn) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 7M FY24 Capex 3,356 4,256 5,921 7,363 5,469 Road 673 874 1,133 2,060 1,716 Railways 678 1,093 1,173 1,593 1,567 Defense 1,111 1,344 1,380 1,429 703 Water 183 160 663 597 387 Housing 193 103 259 237 123 92 83 88 79 80 8 17 12 21 20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-21 Oct-22 Oct-23 Proportion of Total Expenditure (%) Revex Capex
  • 24. 24 Reform Rush – Manufacturing in focus Manufacturing Sector is now getting much needed impetus due to Govt.’s steadfast commitment towards reforms Data Source: Macquarie Research and (https://pib.gov.in/) . Misc includes Textiles and Food industry as well, FY: Financial Year, Tn: Trillion. PLI: Production Linked Incentive Scheme 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 FY 20 FY 21 FY22 FY23 New Projects Announced under Manufacturing (INR Tn) Chemicals & Refining Machinery & Metal Products Consumer Goods (Incl. Auto) Construction material Misc 3.8 13.2 Initiatives taken by Govt. to support Manufacturing Make in India Vocal for Local initiative to promote Indian Manufacturing PLI Incentive schemes for key sectors to boost production and exports National Logistics Policy Aiming to lower the logistics cost to improve cost efficiency & profitability
  • 25. 25 Paradigm Shift – Strong domestic vs Weak Global business cycle 13 12 11 24 42 63 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 FY22 FY23 6MFY24 Average PAT growth (YoY, %) Global Facing Sectors Domestic Facing Sectors India’s Macros and growth remains much stronger compared to the world and the same is evident in the corporate profitability of Domestic facing sectors Source: DAM Capital. Data is as of Sep 30, 2023. NSE 200 sectoral adjusted Profit After Tax (PAT) is considered. Select sectors from NSE 200 considered. Global facing sectors considered – Information Technology and Healthcare. Domestic facing sectors considered – Automobiles & Auto components, Banks, NBFCs, Capital Goods, Construction & Materials, Consumer Durables. Past performance may or may not sustain in future
  • 27. 27 Paradigm Shift – Verifying Valuations Our in-house Equity Valuation Index continue to remain in the neutral zone highlighting that market valuations are not cheap Data as on Dec 22,2023 is considered. Equity Valuation index is calculated by assigning equal weights to Price-to-Earnings (PE), Price-to-Book (PB), G-Sec*PE and Market Cap to GDP ratio and any other factor which the AMC may add/delete from time to time.. G-Sec – Government Securities. GDP – Gross Domestic Product, Data as on November 30, 2023 has been considered. Equity Valuation Index (EVI) is a proprietary model of ICICI Prudential AMC Ltd. (the AMC) used for assessing overall equity market valuations. The AMC may also use this model for other facilities/features offered by the AMC. 115.4 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Aggressively Invest in Equities Neutral Incremental Money to Debt Book Partial Profits Invest in Equities
  • 28. 28 Paradigm Shift – Verifying Valuations Pre-election rally have historically witnessed lower starting point But this time valuations are on the higher side P/E, P/B and Market Returns are calculated for Nifty 50 Index. Data Source: MFIE, NSE & Nuvama Research Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Returns have been calculated from Dec 01,2003 to April 30,2004, Dec 01,2008 to April 30,2009, Dec 01,2013 to April 30,2014 and Dec 01,2018 to April 30,2019. 5 Months prior indicate beginning of December of the relevant previous year. Market cap of actively traded companies is considered. Market Cap (INR Tn) 10.7 28.2 68.1 142.9 323.4 P/E 18.3 11.8 18.5 26.3 21.7 P/B 3.6 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.6 Indian market cap to GDP 39 52 62 76 114 Returns till General Elections 8.4 29.7 7.7 8.0 ?? Particulars 5 months prior to 2004 5 months prior to 2009 5 months prior to 2014 5 months prior to 2019 5 months prior to 2024
  • 29. 29 Paradigm Shift – Verifying Valuations Valuations of Large-cap stocks look relatively cheaper leaving more headroom for margin of safety Source: NSE. ^Data as on Nov 30,2023. Data is on calendar year basis. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Red indicates high valuations, Amber indicates neutral valuations and Green indicates attractive valuations. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023^ 80.3 12.4 7.2 19.6 76.8 14.1 9.1 23.2 73.8 15.2 11.0 26.2 72.9 15.3 11.8 27.1 68.1 17.3 14.6 31.9 72.0 16.3 11.7 28.0 74.9 15.6 9.5 25.1 74.2 15.5 10.2 25.7 68.7 16.8 14.5 31.3 69.2 16.1 14.7 30.8 64.0 18.0 18.1 36.1 Midcap Large Cap Smallcap As a % of Total Market Cap Sum of Mid & Small cap Period
  • 30. 30 Paradigm Shift – Sentiments Scan Investors continued to flock towards Midcap & smallcap schemes due to past returns. Overall sentiments remained positive due to strong FPI and DII flows Data till November 30,2023 is considered. Data Source: AMFI and Kotak Institutional Research. FPI: Foreign Portfolio Investment, DII: Domestic Institutional Investors. For DII: Only Mutual Fund Houses have been considered. CYTD: Calendar Year Till Date. Other Funds include categories like Flexicaps, Multicaps, ELSS, Value, Sectoral and Large & Midcap Funds. Mn: Million. For 2023, Data is considered till Dec 22,2023 Category Net Flows into Mutual Funds (INR Bn) Growth in count of Folios (CYTD) 2021 2022 2023 CYTD Large Cap Funds 29 137 -30 -26 2% Midcap Funds 106 205 189 214 23% Smallcap Funds 38 198 335 373 58% Other Funds 794 1071 797 929 11% -18000 -8000 2000 12000 22000 32000 42000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 USD Mn Transition of DII Flows FPI Flows DII Flows Mutual Fund Flows (subset of DII)
  • 31. 31 Our Key Recommendations-Equity ETFs/FOF/Index funds Core ICICI Prudential Nifty 50 ETF / ICICI Prudential Nifty 50 Index Fund ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex ETF / ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex Index Fund ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF / ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF FOF ICICI Prudential Nifty Bank ETF / ICICI Prudential Nifty Bank Index Fund ICICI Prudential Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 ETF / ICICI Prudential Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 ETF FOF ICICI Prudential Passive Strategy Fund (FOF) Tactical Equity ICICI Prudential Nifty Financial Services ex Bank ETF ICICI Prudential Nifty Private Bank ETF ICICI Prudential Nifty IT ETF / ICICI Prudential Nifty IT Index Fund ICICI Prudential Nifty India Consumption ETF
  • 32. Our Outlook on Fixed Income On monetary policy, we see a low chance of shift in policy stance as the impact of past rate hikes works its way through the economy. The RBI’s intervention is needed only if growth-inflation dynamics diverge unfavorably. We believe that monetary policy has done the heavy-lifting in managing the economy and the baton is now passed on to the fiscal side where the deficit gap needs to be narrowed. Global cues are expected to impact domestic macros bringing in a mixed bag - with optimism, fueled by a dovish US Fed, and caution, as China stages recovery. We expect liquidity conditions to remain tight as credit growth continues to expand. Accruals may become attractive as corporates tap the bond market for capital. Active duration management is also required as global cues impact domestic macros and long-term yields. 32
  • 33. Target Maturity Index Statistics 33 Index Name Yield(%) MacD(yrs) Maturity(yrs) ModD(yrs) Nifty PSU Bond Plus SDL SEP 2027 40:60 Index 7.62 3.15 3.59 3.00 Nifty SDL Sep 2027 Index 7.60 3.21 3.65 3.09 Nifty G-sec Dec 2030 Index 7.28 5.30 6.57 5.12 Nifty SDL Dec 2028 Index 7.58 3.99 4.67 3.84 Nifty SDL Sep 2026 Index 7.57 2.35 2.57 2.26 Data as on December 31, 2023. Source: NSE Indices https://www.niftyindices.com ,.
  • 34. 34 Our Key Recommendations Debt ETFs/Index funds Margin and Liquidity Requirement ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Liquid Rate ETF Medium and Long Duration ICICI Prudential Nifty 5 Yr benchmark G-Sec ETF ICICI Prudential Nifty 10 Yr benchmark G-Sec ETF Target Maturity ICICI Prudential Nifty SDL Sep 2026 Index Fund ICICI Prudential Nifty PSU Bond Plus SDL Sep 2027 40:60 Index Fund ICICI Prudential Nifty SDL Sep 2027 Index Fund ICICI Prudential Nifty SDL Dec 2028 Index Fund ICICI Prudential Nifty G-Sec Dec 2030 Index Fund
  • 35. Our View On Gold 35 We believe that Gold in coming years would play an important role in one’s portfolio as it can maintain its glitter as a viable investment, especially during periods of rising inflation and heightened geo-political tensions. We thus recommend ICICI Prudential Gold ETF or ICICI Prudential Regular Gold Savings Fund (FOF) Main factors supporting our view : 1. Real rate close to the peak in US 2. Central banks looking to diversify out of US treasuries 3. Relative valuation for gold more attractive Source: Nuvama, Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
  • 36. Our View On Gold-Analysis 36 Source: Nuvama, Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Real rates closer to the peak in US Gold has remained range bound because of higher real US treasury interest rates , but now with real rate peaking out and falling the shine for gold have started to come back strongly 1.8 3.0 1.0 2.4 1.6 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 US 10 Yr TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) Yield Movement for last 20 years (%)
  • 37. Our View On Gold-Analysis 37 Central banks looking to diversify out of US treasuries As the world is in turbulent times, the Central Banks around the world are inclined towards gold for hedging portfolio risk, which in-turn may bode well for gold demand. Central Bank demand for gold has gone from strength to strength Source: Nuvama, Metal Focus, Refinitiv GFMS,
  • 38. Invest in Equities Invest in Gold Invest in Gold 0.46 0.18 0.63 0.26 0.42 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 Dec-90 Dec-91 Dec-92 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Sensex to Gold Ratio Our View On Gold-Analysis 38 Relative valuation for gold more attractive Invest in Equities Invest in Equities Source: Nuvama, Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Gold in dollar terms has remained flat for the last three years. To add further, gold prices peaked 12 years back @ 1920 in 2011 and post that has not witnessed any significant rally
  • 39. 39 RISKOMETER ICICI Prudential Gold ETF (An open ended exchange traded fund replicating domestic prices of gold) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at High risk • Long term wealth creation solution •A Gold Exchange Traded Fund that seeks to provide investment returns that closely track domestic prices of Gold, subject to tracking error. *Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. ICICI Prudential Nifty 50 ETF (An open ended exchange traded fund tracking Nifty 50 Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk • Long term wealth creation solution •An Exchange Traded Fund that seeks to provide returns that closely correspond to the returns provided by Nifty 50 Index, subject to tracking error. *Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
  • 40. 40 RISKOMETER ICICI Prudential Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 ETF (An open ended exchange traded fund tracking Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk • Long term wealth creation solution • An Exchange Traded Fund that aims to provide returns that closely correspond to the returns provided by Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 Index, subject to tracking error. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF (An Open-ended Exchange Traded Fund replicating/ tracking S&P BSE 500 Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk • Long term wealth creation • An Exchange Traded Fund that aims to provide returns that closely correspond to the returns provided by S&P BSE 500 Index, subject to tracking error. *Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
  • 41. 41 RISKOMETER ICICI Prudential Nifty Bank ETF (An open-ended Exchange Traded Fund tracking Nifty Bank Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk • Long term wealth creation • An exchange traded fund that aims to provide returns that closely correspond to the returns provided by Nifty Bank Index, subject to tracking error. *Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. ICICI Prudential Nifty Private Bank ETF (An open-ended Exchange Traded Fund replicating / tracking NIFTY Private Bank Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER • Long term wealth creation • An exchange traded fund that aims to provide returns that closely correspond to the returns provided by NIFTY Private Bank Index, subject to tracking error. Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk *Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
  • 42. 42 RISKOMETER ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex ETF (An open ended Exchange Traded Fund tracking S&P BSE Sensex Index.) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk • Long term wealth creation solution • An Exchange Traded Fund that aims to provide returns that closely correspond to the returns of the securities represented by S&P BSE SENSEX Index subject to tracking error. *Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. ICICI Prudential Nifty India Consumption ETF (An open-ended Index Exchange Traded Fund tracking Nifty India Consumption Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking*: SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk • Long term wealth creation • An Exchange Traded Fund that aims to provide returns that closely correspond to the returns provided by Nifty India Consumption Index, subject to tracking error. *Investorsshouldconsult theirfinancialadvisersif in doubtaboutwhetherthe productis suitable forthem.
  • 43. 43 RISKOMETER ICICI Prudential Passive Strategy Fund (FOF) (An open ended fund of funds scheme investing predominantly in Units of Domestic Equity Exchange Traded Funds) is suitable for investors who are seeking*: SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk • Long term wealth creation • An open ended fund of funds scheme investing predominantly in units of domestic Equity Exchange traded funds. *Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. ICICI Prudential Nifty IT ETF (An open-ended Index Exchange Traded Fund tracking Nifty IT Index.) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk • Long term wealth creation •An Exchange Traded Fund that aims to provide returns that closely correspond to the returns provided by Nifty IT Index, subject to tracking error. *Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
  • 44. 44 RISKOMETER ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF FOF(An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk • Long term wealth creation • An Open-ended Fund of Funds scheme with the primary objective to generate returns by investing in units of ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF. *Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex Index Fund (An open ended Index scheme replicating S&P BSE Sensex Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk • Long term wealth creation solution • An index fund that seeks to track returns by investing in a basket of S&P BSE SENSEX Index stocks and aims to achieve returns of the stated index, subject to tracking error. *Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
  • 45. 45 RISKOMETER ICICI Prudential Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 ETF FOF (An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in ICICI Prudential Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 ETF) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk • Long term wealth creation • An Open-ended Fund of Funds scheme with the primary objective to generate returns by investing in units of ICICI Prudential Nifty Low Vol 30 ETF. *Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. ICICI Prudential Nifty Bank Index Fund (An open ended scheme replicating Nifty Bank Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk • Long term wealth creation solutions • An index fund that seeks to track returns by investing in a basket of Nifty Bank Index stocks and aims to achieve returns of the stated index, subject to tracking error. *Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
  • 46. 46 RISKOMETER ICICI Prudential Nifty IT Index Fund (An open ended Index scheme replicating Nifty IT Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk • Long term wealth creation solution • An index fund that seeks to track returns by investing in a basket of Nifty IT Index stocks and aims to achieve returns of the stated index, subject to tracking error. *Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. ICICI Prudential Regular Gold Savings Fund(FOF)(An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in ICICI Prudential Nifty Gold ETF) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at High risk • Long term wealth creation solution • A Fund of Funds scheme with the primary objective to generate returns by investing in units of ICICI Prudential Gold ETF. *Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
  • 47. ICICI Prudential Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank ETF (An open-ended Exchange Traded Fund tracking Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their Principal will be at Very High risk • Long term wealth creation • An Exchange Traded Fund that aims to provide returns that correspond to the returns provided by Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank Index, subject to tracking error. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. 47 RISKOMETER ICICI Prudential Nifty 50 Index Fund (An open ended Index scheme replicating Nifty 50 Index) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk • Long term wealth creation solution • An index fund that seeks to track returns by investing in a basket of Nifty 50 Index stocks and aims to achieve returns of the stated index, subject to tracking error. *Investorsshould consult their financialadvisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
  • 48. 48 RISKOMETER ICICI Prudential Nifty 5 yr Benchmark G-SEC ETF (An open-ended Exchange Traded Fund tracking Nifty 5 yr Benchmark G-Sec Index. A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk.) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Moderate risk • Long term wealth creation •An Exchange Traded Fund that aims to provide returns that correspond to the returns provided by Nifty 5 yr Benchmark G-sec Index, subject to tracking error. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. Potential risk class matrix based on interest rate risk and credit risk, is as below: Credit Risk Relatively Low (Class A) Modera te (Class B) Relativel y High (Class C) Interest Rate Risk Relatively Low (Class I) Moderate (Class II) Relatively High (Class III) A-III ICICI Prudential Nifty SDL Sep 2026 Index Fund( An open-ended Target Maturity Index Fund tracking Nifty SDL Sep 2026 Index. A Moderate interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their Principal will be at Low to Moderate risk • Income over the target maturity period • An open-ended Target Maturity Index Fund tracking Nifty SDL Sep 2026 Index, subject to tracking error *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. Potential risk class matrix based on interest rate risk and credit risk, is as below: Credit Risk Relatively Low (Class A) Moderat e (Class B) Relativel y High (Class C) Interest Rate Risk Relatively Low (Class I) Moderate (Class II) A-II Relatively High (Class III)
  • 49. 49 RISKOMETER ICICI Prudential Nifty 10 yr Benchmark G-Sec ETF (An open-ended Exchange Traded Fund tracking NIFTY 10 yr Benchmark G-Sec Index. A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their Principal will be at Moderate risk • Long term wealth creation • An Exchange Traded Fund that aims to provide returns that correspond to the returns provided by NIFTY 10 yr Benchmark G-Sec Index, subject to tracking error. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. Potential risk class matrix based on interest rate risk and credit risk, is as below: Credit Risk Relatively Low (Class A) Moderat e (Class B) Relativel y High (Class C) Interest Rate Risk Relatively Low (Class I) Moderate (Class II) Relatively High (Class III) A-III ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Liquid Rate ETF (An open-ended Exchange Traded Fund tracking S&P BSE Liquid Rate Index. A relatively low interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk.) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Low risk • Short term savings solution • A liquid exchange traded fund that aims to provide reasonable returns commensurate with low risk and providing a high level of liquidity. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. Potential risk class matrix based on interest rate risk and credit risk, is as below: Credit Risk Relatively Low (Class A) Moder ate (Class B) Relatively High (Class C) Interest Rate Risk Relatively Low (Class I) A-I Moderate (Class II) Relatively High (Class III)
  • 50. 50 RISKOMETER ICICI Prudential Nifty PSU Bond Plus SDL Sep 2027 40:60 Index Fund(An open-ended target maturity Index Fund investing in the constituents of Nifty PSU Bond Plus SDL Sep 2027 40:60 Index. A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk.) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their Principal will be at Moderate risk • Income over long run • An open-ended Target Maturity Index Fund tracking Nifty PSU Bond Plus SDL Sep 2027 40:60 Index, subject to tracking error. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. Potential risk class matrix based on interest rate risk and credit risk, is as below: Credit Risk Relatively Low (Class A) Moderat e (Class B) Relativel y High (Class C) Interest Rate Risk Relatively Low (Class I) Moderate (Class II) Relatively High (Class III) A-III ICICI Prudential Nifty SDL Sep 2027 Index Fund(An open-ended Target Maturity Index Fund tracking Nifty SDL Sep 2027 Index. A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk.) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their Principal will be at Moderate risk • Income over a long period • An open-ended Target Maturity Index Fund tracking Nifty SDL Sep 2027 Index, subject to tracking error. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. Potential risk class matrix based on interest rate risk and credit risk, is as below: Credit Risk Relatively Low (Class A) Moderat e (Class B) Relativel y High (Class C) Interest Rate Risk Relatively Low (Class I) Moderate (Class II) Relatively High (Class III) A-III
  • 51. 51 RISKOMETER ICICI Prudential Nifty SDL Dec 2028 Index Fund (An open-ended Target Maturity Index Fund tracking Nifty SDL Dec 2028 Index. A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk.) is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their Principal will be at Moderate risk • Income over a long period • An open-ended Target Maturity Index Fund tracking Nifty SDL Dec 2028 Index, subject to tracking error. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. Potential risk class matrix based on interest rate risk and credit risk, is as below: Credit Risk Relatively Low (Class A) Moderat e (Class B) Relativel y High (Class C) Interest Rate Risk Relatively Low (Class I) Moderate (Class II) Relatively High (Class III) A-III ICICI Prudential Nifty G-Sec Dec 2030 Index Fund (An open-ended target maturity Index Fund investing in the constituents of Nifty G-Sec Dec 2030 Index. A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk.)is suitable for investors who are seeking:* SCHEME RISKOMETER Investors understand that their Principal will be at Moderate risk • Income over a long period • An open-ended Target Maturity Index Fund tracking Nifty G-Sec Dec 2030 Index, subject to tracking error. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. Potential risk class matrix based on interest rate risk and credit risk, is as below: Credit Risk Relatively Low (Class A) Moderat e (Class B) Relativel y High (Class C) Interest Rate Risk Relatively Low (Class I) Moderate (Class II) Relatively High (Class III) A-III
  • 52. 52 RISKOMETER #Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above risk-o-meters are as on December 31, 2023. Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details. #Investors may please note that they will be bearing the recurring expenses of the relevant fund of funds scheme in addition to the expenses of the underlying schemes in which the fund of funds scheme makes investment. Any application by investors, other than Market Makers, must be for an amount exceeding INR 25 crores. However, the aforementioned threshold of INR 25 crores shall not apply to investors falling under the following categories (until such time as may be specified by SEBI/AMFI): a. Schemes managed by Employee Provident Fund Organization, India; b. Recognized Provident Funds, approved Gratuity funds and approved superannuation funds under Income Tax Act, 1961. Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. ICICI ETF is part of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund and is used for exchange traded funds managed by ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited.
  • 53. 53 Scrip Codes Scheme Name Scrip Code on NSE Scrip Code on BSE ICICI Prudential Nifty 50 ETF NIFTYIETF 537007 ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex ETF SENSEXIETF 555555 ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF BSE500IETF 541313 ICICI Prudential Nifty Bank ETF BANKIETF 542730 ICICI Prudential Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 ETF LOWVOLIETF 540612 ICICI Prudential Nifty Financial Services ex Bank ETF FINIETF 543677 ICICI Prudential Nifty Private Bank ETF PVTBANIETF 542758 ICICI Prudential Nifty IT ETF ITIETF 543221 ICICI Prudential Nifty India Consumption ETF CONSUMIETF 543383 ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Liquid Rate ETF LIQUIDIETF 541946 ICICI Prudential Nifty 5 Yr benchmark G-Sec ETF GSEC5IETF 543480 ICICI Prudential Nifty 10 Yr benchmark G-Sec ETF GSEC10IETF 543700 ICICI Prudential Gold ETF GOLDIETF 533244
  • 54. 54 DISCLAIMERS Disclaimer: All figures and other data given in this document are dated as of December 31, 2023 unless stated otherwise. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (the AMC). Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, the AMC has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. Some of the material(s) used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material. Disclaimer of NSE Indices Limited: The Products offered by “ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund/ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited” or its affiliates is not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by NSE Indices Limited (NSE Indices) and its affiliates. NSE Indices and its affiliates do not make any representation or warranty, express or implied (including warranties of merchantability or fitness for particular purpose or use) to the owners of these Products or any member of the public regarding the advisability of investing in securities generally or in the Products linked to their underlying indices to track general stock market performance in India. Please read the full Disclaimers in relation to the underlying indices in the respective Scheme Information Document.
  • 55. 55 DISCLAIMERS Disclaimer by the National Stock Exchange of India Limited : It is to be distinctly understood that the permission given by National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) should not in any way be deemed or construed that the Scheme Information Document has been cleared or approved by NSE nor does it certify the correctness or completeness of any of the contents of the Scheme Information Document. The investors are advised to refer to the Scheme Information Document for the full text of the ‘Disclaimer Clause of NSE’. Disclaimer by the BSE Limited: It is to be distinctly understood that the permission given by BSE Limited should not in any way be deemed or construed that the SID has been cleared or approved by BSE Limited nor does it certify the correctness or completeness of any of the contents of the SID. The investors are advised to refer to the SID for the full text of the Disclaimer Clause of the BSE Limited. Disclaimer by BSE Limited for SENSEX Prudential ICICI Exchange Traded Fund: The "S&P BSE SENSEX" is a product of AIPL, a joint venture among affiliates of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (“SPDJI”) and BSE Limited (“BSE”), and has been licensed for use by ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Standard & Poor’s® and S&P® are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”); BSE® and SENSEX® are registered trademarks of BSE Limited; Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (“Dow Jones”);and these trademarks have been licensed for use by AIPL and sublicensed for certain purposes by ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. SENSEX Prudential ICICI Exchange Traded Fund is not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by SPDJI, BSE, Dow Jones, S&P or their respective affiliates and none of such parties make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product(s) nor do they have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of the SENSEX.” “The “S&P BSE SENSEX" (the “Index”) is published by Asia Index Private Limited (“AIPL”), which is a joint venture among affiliates of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (“SPDJI”) and BSE Limited (“BSE”), and has been licensed for use by ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (“Licensee”). Standard & Poor’s® and S&P® are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”) and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (“Dow Jones”). BSE® and SENSEX® are registered trademarks of BSE. The trademarks have been licensed to AIPL and have been sublicensed for use for certain purposes by Licensee. Licensee’s SENSEX Prudential ICICI Exchange Traded Fund” (the “Product”) is/are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by AIPL, SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&P, any of their respective affiliates (collectively, “S&P Dow Jones Indices”) or BSE. None of AIPL, S&P Dow Jones Indices or BSE makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the owners of the Product or any member of the public regarding the advisability of investing in securities generally or in the Product particularly or the ability of the Index to track general market performance. AIPL’s, S&P Dow Jones Indices’ and BSE’s only relationship to Licensee with respect to the Index is the licensing of the Index and certain trademarks, service marks and/or trade names of AIPL, S&P Dow Jones Indices, BSE and/or their licensors. The S&P BSE SENSEX is determined, composed and calculated by AIPL or its agent without regard to Licensee or the Product. None of AIPL, S&P Dow Jones Indices or BSE are responsible for and have not participated in the determination of the prices, and amount of the Product or the timing of the issuance or sale of the Product or in the determination or calculation of the equation by which the Product is to be converted into cash, surrendered or redeemed, as the case may be. AIPL, S&P Dow Jones Indices and BSE have no obligation or liability in connection with the administration, marketing or trading of the Product. There is no assurance that investment products based on the Index will accurately track index performance or provide positive investment returns. AIPL and S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC are not investment advisors. Inclusion of a security within an index is not a recommendation by AIPL, S&P Dow Jones Indices or BSE to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor is it considered to be investment advice.
  • 56. 56 DISCLAIMERS Standard & Poor's® and S&P® are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC (“S&P”) and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (“Dow Jones”). BSE® and SENSEX® are registered trademarks of BSE. The trademarks have been licensed to AIPL and have been sublicensed for use for certain purposes by Licensee. Licensee's ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex ETF, ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex Index Fund, ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Midcap Select ETF, BHARAT 22 ETF, ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF and ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Liquid Rate ETF” (the “Product”) is/are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by AIPL, SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&P, any of their respective affiliates (collectively, “S&P Dow Jones Indices”) or BSE. None of AIPL, S&P Dow Jones Indices or BSE makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the owners of the Product or any member of the public regarding the advisability of investing in securities generally or in the Product particularly or the ability of the Index to track general market performance. AIPL's, S&P Dow Jones Indices' and BSE's only relationship to Licensee with respect to the Index is the licensing of the Index and certain trademarks, service marks and/or trade names of AIPL, S&P Dow Jones Indices, BSE and/or their licensors. The "S&P BSE Sensex, S&P BSE Midcap Select TRI, S&P BSE Bharat 22 TRI, S&P BSE 500 TRI and S&P BSE Liquid Rate Index" is determined, composed and calculated by AIPL or its agent without regard to Licensee or the Product. None of AIPL, S&P Dow Jones Indices or BSE are responsible for and have not participated in the determination of the prices, and amount of the Product or the timing of the issuance or sale of the Product or in the determination or calculation of the equation by which the Product is to be converted into cash, surrendered or redeemed, as the case may be. AIPL, S&P Dow Jones Indices and BSE have no obligation or liability in connection with the administration, marketing or trading of the Product. There is no assurance that investment products based on the Index will accurately track index performance or provide positive investment returns. AIPL and S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC are not investment advisors. Inclusion of a security within an index is not a recommendation by AIPL , S&P Dow Jones Indices or BSE to buy, sell, or hold suchsecurity, nor is it considered to be investment advice. Disclaimer by AIPL for ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex ETF, ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex Index Fund, ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF and ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Liquid Rate ETF : “The "S&P BSE Sensex, S&P BSE 500 TRI and S&P BSE Liquid Rate Index" is a product of AIPL, a joint venture among affiliates of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (“SPDJI”) and BSE Limited (“BSE”), and has been licensed for use by ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Standard & Poor's® and S&P® are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC (“S&P”); BSE® and SENSEX® are registered trademarks of BSE Limited; Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (“Dow Jones”); and these trademarks have been licensed for use by AIPL and sublicensed for certain purposes by ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex ETF, ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Sensex Index Fund, ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Midcap Select ETF, BHARAT 22 ETF, ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF and ICICI Prudential S&P BSE Liquid Rate ETF is not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by SPDJI, BSE, Dow Jones, S&P or their respective affiliates and none of such parties make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product(s) nor do they have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of the SENSEX.” “The "S&P BSE Sensex, S&P BSE Midcap Select TRI, S&P BSE Bharat 22 TRI, S&P BSE 500 TRI and S&P BSE Liquid Rate Index" (the “Index”) is published by Asia Index Private Limited (“AIPL”), which is a joint venture among affiliates of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (“SPDJI”) and BSE Limited (“BSE”), and has been licensed for use by ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (“Licensee”).