This document summarizes Guy Saint-Jacques' presentation on China's "new normal" and what it means for Canada. Some key points: - Under Xi Jinping, China is focusing on economic reforms while maintaining stability and consolidating the Communist Party's power. - China's economy is transitioning to slower but more sustainable growth driven by consumption and innovation. - Bilateral relations between Canada and China are expanding, with growing trade, investment, tourism and student exchanges. - Both countries are working to deepen cooperation through implementing initiatives in the Canada-China Joint List of Outcomes.

1. CHINA’S NEW NORMAL:
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR CANADA?
Guy Saint-Jacques
Ambassador of Canada to China
Nova Scotia
February 2015

2. TODAY’S PRESENTATION
Xi Jinping’s priorities
The economic situation
The bilateral relationship

3. XI JINPING: HIS LEADERSHIP
• Consolidation
• Anti-corruption drive
• Strengthening of the
Party

4. DOMESTIC SECURITY
• National Security
• Human rights and
freedom of expression

5. FOREIGN POLICY
• Prestige
• Stability

6. REFORM?
• Rule of Law
• Education/Health
• Environment

7. ECONOMIC RESULTS FOR 2014
 GDP growth lowest
since 1990
 World’s 2nd largest
economy (value over
USD10 trillion)

8. ECONOMIC RESULTS FOR 2014
 « New Normal »
 Structural changes and
silver linings
 Ambitious reform toward
sustainable growth
Source: csstoday.com

9. ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL REFORMS:
WHAT HAS BEEN DONE SO FAR?
 Administrative reform
 Fiscal reform –
Local government debt management
 State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) reform
 Hukou/Rural land/Social safety net reforms –
Urbanization
 Financial reform
Source: Getty

10. WHAT IT MEANS FOR FOREIGN/CANADIAN COMPANIES?
 The reform process will
take time.
 China still matters.
 Economic ties with China
will only expand.
Sources: embassy photos, theglobeandmail.com

11. WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2015?
 New growth target
 13th Five-Year Plan for 2016-2020
 Delicate balance between reform and
economic stability
 Toward better quality growth, driven
by consumption and innovation Source: Dreamstime.com

12. THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP
• 2014 : A Busy
Year
• PM Visit: Joint List
of Outcomes (JLO)

13. THE CANADA FUND FOR LOCAL INITIATIVES
• Ethnic minority
Development
• Judicial reform and
rights protection for
vulnerable groups
• Accountability and
transparency

14. STUDY PERMITS ISSUED IN CHINA (2007-2013)
10,120
13,780
16,465
17,780
21,995
25,010
29,415
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
StudyPermitsissued
Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada

15. CHINESE STUDENTS IN CANADA (2007-2013)
Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada
41037 42116
49900
56909
67063
80638
96270
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
to Canada in Canada

16. CHINESE VISITORS TO CANADA (2007-2014)
151 159 160
193
249
298
334
406
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
(est.)
Numberofvisitors(thousands)
• Since ADS status in 2010, arrivals have more than doubled.
• In 2013, Chinese tourism contributed $603 M to the Canadian economy, up 24.2% over
2012. In 2014, the estimated contribution is $725 M, up 20% over 2013.

17. Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada
WEEKLY VISA APPLICATION INTAKE IN CHINA
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
0 10 20 30 40 50
China 2010 China 2011 China 2012 China 2013 China 2014 China 2015

18. YTD CANADIAN MERCHANDISE IMPORTS AND EXPORTS TO CHINA
$18.5B $17.6B
$48.3 B
$53.6 B
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Jan-Nov 2013 Jan-Nov 2014
Billions
Exports
Imports

19. YTD NOVA SCOTIA EXPORTS TO CHINA
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Fish
Pulp of Wood
Copper
Fruits/Nuts
Aluminum
$81 M
$56 M
$15 M
$4 M
$6 M
$121 M
$87 M
$18 M
$5 M
$4 M
Millions
Jan-Nov 2013
Jan-Nov 2014

20. DEVELOPMENT OF THE CANADIAN SME GATEWAY TO CHINA

21. CANADA IN CHINA: OUR PRESENCE ON THE GROUND
BEIJING
Chongqing
Guangzhou
Hong Kong
Shanghai
Shenyang
Shenzhen
Nanjing
Qingdao
Wuhan
Chengdu
Tianjin
Xiamen
Xi’an
Hangzhou
Cities
Population
(millions)
Economy
(US$
billions)
Provincial
GDP
growth
Comparabl
e GDP
Tianjin 9.9 205 13.80% Nigeria
Xi'an 8 69 12.90% Pakistan
Chengdu 11.7 129 12.60% Spain
Xiamen 1.9 45 11.40% Malaysia
Wuhan 8.2 127 11.30% Spain
Nanjing 6.4 114 10.10%
South
Korea
Qingdao 7.7 116 9.80% Mexico
Shenyang 7.3 105 9.50% Indonesia
Shenzhen 2.9 206 8.20% Australia
Hangzhou 7 124 8.00% Iran

22. $37.4
$8.8
$2.3 $2.1 $0.5
AB
BC
ON
QC
Other
By Province/Territory (US$ Billion)
Source: University of Alberta China Institute, February 2015
22%
35%
31%
7% 5%
By Province/Territory (% of Deals)
Chinese Investment in Canada
50%
22%
6%
5%
17% Metals and
Minerals
Energy
Health &
Biotechnology
Information
Technology
Others
By Sector (% of Deals)

23. LOOKING AHEAD
• Joint List of
Outcomes (JLO)
Implementation
• 45 Years of
Diplomatic
Relations